Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/29/26

Dan Szymborski: Greetings friends! I am enjoying a balmy 14 degrees now, a full 24 degrees of warming in the last four hours!

Dan Szymborski: If only my mazda was a convertible so I could go enjoy the day

Datt Mamon: The Cubs seem like they’re poised to be better in 2026, so what accounts for an only 87 win projection?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t necessarily see them as better

Dan Szymborski: It already liked PCA a ton. Sees Bregman/Tucker swap a wash. No more excited about the rotation and nobody has a projection as good as Steele last year. Likes bullpen a bit better

JC: Does the qualifying offer have to be exactly the number provided by MLB or at least that number? Could a team offer $35m for a player that may want to reconsider going to the market?

Dan Szymborski: The official Qualifying Offer specifies *equal* to the (formula for qualifying offer) and that *the* amount of the  qualifying offer *shall* be determined by the formula

Dan Szymborski: But there’s nothing preventing a team from making a qualifying offer at the same time making a normal offer for more that is only applicable over the same quiet period

Dan Szymborski: it’s a paper work thing

JC: Thoughts on doing away with minus stats? Let’s just make it all +. It’s redundant otherwise

Dan Szymborski: People get upset that higher ERA+ numbers are good

Dan Szymborski: and feel it should be the opposite

Dan Szymborski: so no reason to bother them

Kevin: I recall you saying not too long ago that a given year’s ZiPs projections are more accurate for the following year’s production. For example a 2024 projection would more closely align with 2025 production than 2024. Am I summarizing that correctly and if so, can you elaborate on that?

Dan Szymborski: That is correct. Based on history, you would expect the 2025 preseason projected standings that I published in March to be slightly more accurate in predicting 2026 performance than the *actual* 2025 record.

Dan Szymborski: That’s not because ZiPS is magical, but because recency bias is huge. I haven’t tested since I don’t have the same access to other projection systems and their data, for obvious reasons, but I expect this is true of any competent projection system

Dan Szymborski: Basically, if you had to project players next year and choose between A) 2025 data only or B) All data before the start of the 2025 season, you’d expect to project a bit better with B

TameImp: Is there a way to project what Bobby Witt’s WAR would be if they played him at second base? Presumably he’d be the best defensive 2nd basemen and would get a positional boost from an oWAR perspective?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a model for moving players

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects him slightly less valuable at second as he’s already terrific at shrotstop, and there are minimal gains to moving an elite player to an easier position relative to league average

Dan Szymborski: because there are slightly less impactful opportunities at 2B

Dan Szymborski: Like a +15 SS is not going to be a +30 1B or something

Dan Szymborski: They’ll likely be something like a +10 1B

Smore Grizelle: Do you have a 5-year ZiPS projection for Bregman? It wasn’t included in the article about his signing. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: The three years are on FG and the final two eyars are…unexciting

David: I hear you are cold, have you tried getting more cats?

Dan Szymborski: I actually do not like having cats all over me.

Dan Szymborski: esepcially when I’m working

Dan Szymborski: Over time, cats generally learn pretty well that the soft pillow on the desk to the left of me is where they should sit

Dan Szymborski: though Justinian tries to sneak on my lap if I don’t appear to be paying attention

Dan Szymborski: I sit in a big soft recliner with ottoman, parallel to two desks, with my massive monitor on an angle on the right desk

Dan Szymborski: and my keyboard typically on my right leg

Dan Szymborski: I have a third desk behind me

Dan Szymborski: and nothing directly in front of me so I can see the TV wall

Dan Szymborski: Which Currently has two 52 inch TVs, two 34 inch TVs, which all can be controlled by a laptop on my left desk

TameImp: Does it feel like we are going to get the Rendon contract of pre-arb extensions coming soon? Eventually someone is going to give 100mm to a guy who flames out as a rookie right?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, teams are getting pretty good about stupid contracts, but these things happen

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s the pitch du jour this year? Splitter and kick change I think were the last two, haven’t heard of anything so far this year.

Dan Szymborski: I think we tend to see the new hotness in spring

E.l.: What can the Giants do now to get themselves closer to high 80s wins in ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s that much they can do unless it’s really weird and off the wall

Dan Szymborski: maybe sign Valdez

JC: Non baseball, but I’m writing my first ever article hoping to be published. I’m going to try submitting it to local papers. Any advice for a 29-year-old wanting to enter the field of journalism? I was going to study journalism in college but chose a different career

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure my advice is super useful, simply because I had a really odd route to journalism, that I’m not sure is precisely replicable

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t right for high school or college papers ever, and took creative writing for my english credits in college

Dan Szymborski: write

Dan Szymborski: god

Dan Szymborski: I said right for write when talking about education in english

Dan Szymborski: My first ever newspaper writing was a guest column for the Oakland Tribune in 2005

Dan Szymborski: Submitting is a good idea though, I believe. As is having your writing somewhere on the net

Dan Szymborski: And networking is really important

Dan Szymborski: And so is having a very particular niche

Dan Szymborski: I got hired by ESPN by them reaching out to me. And I got hired by FanGraphs on a call to David (I had seen the writing in the wall for me at ESPN, though I left under very cordial terms and turned down a counteroffer chance). Also talked to the athletic briefly. Having done things with David in the past plus having something specific I could do/offer was really helpful

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what it is, but if there’s SOMETHING you can do, that other people don’t, that’s a huge bonus

Dan Szymborski: And you did one smart thing by NOT majoring in journalism.

Dan Szymborski: I believe Journalism is something you DO more than something you STUDY. I do not believe a lot of journalists would like this answer

Dan Szymborski: Yes, there are a lot of ethical things to learn, but there are in most human activities

Big Fan: Do you expect the Rays’ front office to operate differently under the new ownership group?

Dan Szymborski: Not really

Is this AI?: Well?

Dan Szymborski: What is?

Dan Szymborski: 99% of my AI use is as a high-tech toy, to execute dumb jokes I think of

Dan Szymborski: I also use it to double check my visual basic code as I am not a good coder

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t use AI, outside of the traditional supervised learning techniques, and I don’t write with AI

Smore Grizelle: How worried are you and/or ZiPS about Ranger Suarez’ declining FB velo? If you linearly project the trendline it seems like he might be cooked within a couple years. But as they say, linearly projecting trendlines into the future makes an ass out of you and me!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS will mostly be worried if he dips below 90

Dan Szymborski: a guy throwing 91.5 and having success has a better outlook than a guy having success throwing 94.5 who suddenly starts throwing 91.5

drplantwrench: hi dan, im a naively optimistic angels fan, but things look goddamn bleak.  i feel like 68 wins might be a little lower than what i’d expect of them, but its hard to imagine them doing that much better.  what’s their absolute best case scenario? 3rd place in the AL West?!?

Dan Szymborski: Probably

Dan Szymborski: It’s a really uninspiring team

bringbackpologrounds: Has Fangraphs considered adding a total bases column to their leaderboards?

Dan Szymborski: oops, hold on still answering last one

Dan Szymborski: I can see the crazy scenario where the white sox are OK or the marlins or even nationals are OK

Dan Szymborski: But the Angels have just so MEH an upside. They’re the least risky bad team in baseball IMO, and that’s a really dumb thing to be

Dan Szymborski: We’re having some leaderboard changes that are coming through soon and some new tools Ben’s been working on

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know about TB specifically

Dan Szymborski: I never erally gave thought to it as I don’t really use TB for anything

Dan Szymborski: and if I needed to, I could always just do SLG*AB for the dataset

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t even consciously know we didn’t have TB until you said this

S. Mejdal: Adding Framber would do what exactly to our ZiPS projections / AL East race?

Thank you for the chat!: Should SF or Orioles try to offer Framber the deal Snell signed with SF?

Dan Szymborski: I know you’re not the real Sig! He has my email

Dan Szymborski: I think the O’s should

Andy Friedman: are contract deferrals unfair or bad for baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re neutral

SJF: I noticed Zips isn’t ready to buy Colson Montgomery on opening day. How many strong games in 2026 will it take to peel off those awful 2025 AAA numbers?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that’s a real linear thing I can identify

Scioscia: How, if at all, do newly hired managers and pitching/hitter coaches effect projections?

Dan Szymborski: probably some, but an unknown some that is out of the purview of projections. and really, any analyst since people are really complex

mmddyyyy: Any vegan players?

Dan Szymborski: Sabathia went vegan at some point, don’t know if it stuck. Betts was for awhile, but I think that didn’t stick

Dan Szymborski: Outside of Pat Neshek, nobody else I really think of

Dan Szymborski: Prince Fielder had at least a period he was a vegetarian, but don’t know if he went full vegan

Dan Szymborski: I COULD probably swing vegetarian if I have to. But I really like eggs and dairy

Reds Outfield: Seems like there’s a load-bearing JJ Bleday that would make me nervous. Is there any chance Christian Encarnacion-Strand battles his way back on the team, Stewart covers 1B, and Steer moves back into an OF corner?

Dan Szymborski: It’s POSSIBLE

Dan Szymborski: I think the Reds are largely playing it by ear

Naylor Sailor: Could the Mariners get up to a 90 win projection if they bring back Geno Suarez or finally reel in Brendan Donovan?

Dan Szymborski: that’s a possibility

bringbackpologrounds: Who does ZiPs forecast to finish with the most career HR among active players? It’s stunning to see that Ohtani is projected for about 420 in 3 years, it might well be him.

Dan Szymborski: Soto

Dan Szymborski: Soto, Ohtani, Judge, Stanton, Schwarber, Trout, Raleigh, Harper, Vladito, Machado, J-Rod, Freeman, Chourio, Kurtz, Alonso, Wood, Acuna, Henderson, Suarez, Goldschmidt, Olson

Dan Szymborski: Ryan Clifford is not far off from there. Though only 20-some WAR

Karl Hungus: Who does ZiPS like in the Super Bowl?

Dan Szymborski: buffalo wings

Theo: What do you think would the single most impactful yet realistic transaction to still happen before Opening Day? Framber to Mets/O’s/Cubs? Skubal to Yanks?

Dan Szymborski: rpobably the framber signing

Dan Szymborski: If Skubal’s traded, I think it happens in July because something bad happened to teh Tigers

Cromulent: We often hear that a player is a change of scenery candidate. When that happens is there an adjustment to be made to the projection? Does the data show any real, meaningful effect?

Dan Szymborski: No, it’s something a projection system isn’t going to do well

Dan Szymborski: Hammers are useful, but they’re bad at repairing a chipped mug

Aliens: If there’s life on other planets, do you think they play sports like baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, hitting a round object with a cylinder isn’t that weird a cocnept. But it may not be that close to baseball

Baseball buzzwords: Has modern pitching dev messed up the accuracy of projections at all? Or would a lot of that stuff (pitch/arm angle changes) be baked into the margin of error

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t gotten less accurate, so I ‘d say no

Dan Szymborski: modern ptiching dev has also come with much richer data!

Karl Hungus: What’s the highest preseason win projection you’ve seen?

Dan Szymborski: I THINK it was 2021 dodgers who I think hit 100 (but I may be wrong memory wise)

Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty sure it was 2021 dodgers, not sure if it was 99, 100, or 101

Dan Szymborski: it was AROUND there

Tate: Is there a chance the Royals make a move for Luis Arraez? And if they do, are they a legit world series contender

Dan Szymborski: I think one of the worst places for Arraez is KC

Dan Szymborski: He’s not an upgrade on Pasquatch

Dan Szymborski: and if he’s DHing in KC, then that means that Perez is playing more catcher, which means Jensen is playing less catcher

Dan Szymborski: And with D included, I don’t think he’s actually better than India at 2B

Dan Szymborski: Weirdly, Arraez SHOULD be pretty useful in SD

Dan Szymborski: Because if you start Arraez at first, you’re playing Cronenworth at 2B instead of fucking around with him at first

Dan Szymborski: and then Song can be a super utility type

Dan Szymborski: I don’t THINK Song’s played much outfield, but I’d give him some time out there in sht epsring

Jenny: Why did the Reds give Schwarber a mostly fair offer but now throw their hands up? Are they satisfied with their 83 wins? I guess ZiPS is pretty pessimistic on them anyway, right?

Dan Szymborski: The Reds don’t mind winning, but they really don’t want to spend money if they can avoid it

Dan Szymborski: I think they REALLY liked schwarber

Dan Szymborski: and aren’t going to spend money unless they CAPITALI LIKE players

Eric S: What is the difference between ZIPS and ZIPS DC? For example, Jackson Chourio is projected with a 3.2 WAR by ZIPS but a 2.4 WAR by ZIPS DC in 21 more PAs.

Dan Szymborski: There’s something some weirdness in there with the PA

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what’s going on with that though

Dan Szymborski: usually it scales pretty neatly

Dan Szymborski: I don’t calculate it myself at all

Tork: Why do you think ZIPS likes Torkelson so much more than the other projection systems?

Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to say simply because I can’t dig into the other projection systems

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think ti’s a CRAZY outlier or anything

Dan Szymborski: it’s basically a couple extra hits and a couple extra homers

Krusty: Very much a *_not_* ZiPS question, but one of my favorite genres of Hall of Famer are the compilers who, by their early 30s, are in a “hey, if they could just have an endless summer into their mid/late 30s without declining, they’d actually be an interesting HOF case” guys. Who do you see in the game right now who could fit that profile? Not superstars, just… very good dudes who could compile their way in by aging (very) gracefully?

Dan Szymborski: I think Muncy is kind of already doing that. He just isn’t really declining at the rate you’d expect

Dan Szymborski: I could see Friedl lasting a really long time

Dan Szymborski: He’s an above average contact hitter, is really selective, is a competent center fielder without actually being fast

Dan Szymborski: He could be at 20-25 WAR without anybody noticing

ML: Do we have any data on how long pitchers coming over from the KBO are able to maintain their effectiveness? My guess is that whatever gains they made won’t fool MLB hitters for very long.

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, nto enough data on their long term performances in MLB to draw a conclusion

Adam: What would a true-talent 162-0 team’s World Series odds be?

Dan Szymborski: Well, if they’re true talent invincible…

Dan Szymborski: But that team can’t exist or even come close to it

Dan Szymborski: It would have to be a Ty Cobb suspension walkout game situation

Cromulent: In the Brewers writeup you said maybe Zips didn’t give enough juice to Andrew Vaughn for escaping the White Sox. Is there a formulaic adjustment for change of scenery cases, or is it something you do manually or just mentally? I want to guess that it’s a real but marginal effect, and basically impossible to quantify.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s really hard to quantify

Dan Szymborski: it’s somewhat intangible. which means we can’t really measure the magnitude or even the DIRECTION

Greg: Any teams you would expect the eventual Fangraphs playoff odds to disagree with this most recent ZiPS standings the most?

Dan Szymborski: maybe Cardinals, maybe Guardians

Guest: Today’s so called journalists have no ethics, at least 95% of them. All political unfortunately

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to make a blanket accusation like that

Dan Szymborski: Though I do have some complaints about journalists generally, though not likely to the degree that you do

Dan Szymborski: Just to make a smaller point, I do think there’s a real problem with writers being *fair* to things they don’t like. That doesn’t mean you make up stuff to say nice about things you don’t like or create false balance

Dan Szymborski: But I’m not sure that writers, across the spectrum, give enough grace to things they disagree with, and I do think that’s a problem

Dan Szymborski: The mindset I was raised with (my grandfather’s influence) is to try the HARDEST to be fair to people, places, and things you don’t like

Dan Szymborski: Like, i said a LOT of negative things about how the Rockies were run in the late 2010s/early 2020s.

Dan Szymborski: But believe it or not, anytime I had something negative to say, I felt obligated to REALLY dig into stuff they did to make sure I didn’t like it

Dan Szymborski: and when they did something I did like, I would ask myself if I’m covering it as positively as I would as something I think a better run team did

Dan Szymborski: As I said, my grandfather was the biggest influence on my thinking generally. He was an old NY lawyer, an old style new deal-era NY democrat. But he alwyas believed in truly understanding things you don’t like and things you hate and he tried to impart that on me

Dan Szymborski: In high school, when that high school was becoming a law magnet, in GT social studies in 12th grade, we basically did ALL scotus cases all year, and had to argue them

Dan Szymborski: and when we’d have to argue cases in the roles of lawyers, which we did a lot, I ALWAYS volunteered to take the sides I didn’t believe in, the side I thought was odious. I think that kind of thinking helped me develop as a person

Dan Szymborski: I go into every article I write, every ballot I make, trying to think about *how I am wrong* or *how I could be wrong* first and foremost. I have very little interest in projections I get right. I want to knwo the projections that ZiPS got wrong and know WHY ZiPS got it wrong, and HOW I can improve the model

Dan Szymborski: and that’s part of the reason I’m so self deprecating generally. I ALWAYS feel compelled to trust myself and my opinion less than that of ANYONE else. Since I have the responsibility of my opinion, it’s up to me MOST of all to make sure it’s not me being stupid

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, this got a little tangential

Karl Hungus: Any chance for a time warp of Babe Ruth playing against non-whites?

Dan Szymborski: Probably none.

Dan Szymborski: We actually had an idea for something like this at ESPN one time

Dan Szymborski: but I do not feel I have the sensitivity to write about the topic. It’s a dark part of baseball history, and I have a tendency to take very little seriously without jokes.

Dan Szymborski: My hope is that my last words some day are me making light of my imminent death.

Dan Szymborski: (also like my grandfather, who spent his final days at 96 cracking jokes about the whole thing)

Guest: Popped up in a discussion I saw the other day (admittedly can’t remember where I saw it), but I’m just curious about Wander Franco continuing to get Steamer projections on his page even though he hasn’t played in a few years and likely won’t be returning to MLB.  Obviously it’s understandable about Clase/Ortiz getting projections despite their non-likelihood of returning (they at least played in 2025 and the very damning details came out at the beginning of the offseason), but Franco continuing to get them seemed a bit weird.  A case of “Steamer is projecting them regardless, so might as well”?  (Not necessarily a criticism, just curious.)

Dan Szymborski: That’s kind of a Jared thing

Dan Szymborski: I usually project disappeared players (for whatever reason) for one last season

Urban Shocker’s Jockstrap: Believe Strider is mostly vegan, with the occasional piece of salmon thrown in.

Dan Szymborski: I can see it if you’re doing it for health reasons

Dan Szymborski: though it’d be weird if it were for ethical reasons

Dan Szymborski: (I have no idea what Strider does it for)

Dan Szymborski: but just the thought of “I don’t believe in taking from any animal. Except fish. Fish can go FOAD!”

Lars: I’ve seen mention of the MLBPA potentially being okay with a “soft cap.” How is that different from what there is now (where there’s a luxury tax but no hard cap)?

Dan Szymborski: Has there been? It’s hard to say. We kinda have a fairly soft cap

Salary controls: Do you believe it’s right to limit the amount of money someone can pay you to make them even more money?

Dan Szymborski: OH god, did I start something?

Dan Szymborski: And no.

Crabby: Hang on, I just noticed something.  Ohtani’s MEDIAN projection for runs is 138???  That has happened twice in the last 15 years (admittedly including Ohtani last year)

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers are gonna score a lot of runs

Adenolith: As somebody who studied journalism and then transitioned out of it pretty quickly – Dan’s advice is spot on. Find a niche, and DO. You’ll never get good, you’ll never make the adequate connections, or build the portfolio you need unless you actually write. And great writers write constantly.

Potato: Dan, excellent work as always. Can you explain why the AL divisional runners-up in the Zips projections all have higher WS Win % than the top teams? In the AL East, teams 2-4 ALL have higher WS Win % than Toronto.

Dan Szymborski: I was surprised to

Dan Szymborski: but when the Orioles REALLY work out, it’s because Bradish and Rogers go absolutely insane

Dan Szymborski: they have longer tails than Cease or Gausman do

Crabby: How much better would people understand your projections if you called them “over/unders”?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe a little, but I think people generally understand. The people who get mad are the people who just don’t like comptuer proejctions, on principle

Wood: Is Ryan Clifford really projected for around 350 HRs and 20 WAR?

Dan Szymborski: ntot hat high

Dan Szymborski: 274, 17.8 WAR, 115 OPS+. I didn’t mean he was right behind Olson

Adam: Will Smith HOF?

Dan Szymborski: I think ti’s a real possibility

Guest: A lot has been made of Louis Robert moving to the Mets and potentially performing better with a better lineup around him. Is there any way to actually quantify this in a system like ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually found this kind of thing to have predictive value

Today’s writers: May I add that today’s writers/journalists and head line writers do not know proper English.

Guest: Danny it’s cold outside
My projections are done…
Danny it’s cold outside
ZiPs has been fun…

Guest: if a presidential candidate announced they were a Geoist, what’s the likelihood they’d get your vote? Is it more of a “this seems good” thing, or would you take a lot of other things into consideration?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say since there are a lot of other considerations

Dan Szymborski: For example, I’m also an incrementalist.

Dan Szymborski: I see political ideology as a goal, nto something you can just implement suddenly in a rapid change.

Guest: 2 radio stations want to book you for an interview at the same time. You haven’t heard either of them before. Do you choose the market with the better ZiPS projection, because it’s easier to talk about good teams?

Dan Szymborski: Whoever asks me first

Dan Szymborski: I’m not in THAT Much demand

Dan Szymborski: but I will NEVER ask someone I previously agreed to a time with for a change of time for soemone who asked me afterwards

Dan Szymborski: so if I have a 3 PM podcast scheduled with a small podcaster, and a big market radio station wants to do a hit with me at 3 PM and asks me later, well, I can’t do the second one on that occasion, but I can do it another time

Dan Szymborski: and I’ve never had any real pushback. there’s rarely a radio emergency that requires Dan Szymborski on THAT specific day

Dan Szymborski: let’s be honest, there’s no emergency of any kind that requires Dan Szymborski

Dan Szymborski: unless my clutzy mom falls (since I’m across the street and my sister lives 40 mins away)

Guest: if you were a time traveler back to say, 1700 do you think you could get baseball to take off, if that was your only mission?

Dan Szymborski: I doubt it. You still have to have INFLUENCE

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, if you stick me in a time machine, my natural inclination would be to use knowledge to make money

Dan Szymborski: just call me Berlinghoff Rasmussen

RickG: The White Sox just DFA’d Bryan Ramos. If the ZiPS machine was capable of human emotion, would it be shedding tears?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS already had a breakup with Ramos last year

Adam: Love the Szymchats.  Long philosophical tangents, and just as likely that the next question is like, “What would Great American Ballpark look like if the Ohio River was suddenly made of Skyline chili?”

Dan Szymborski: A place I’d never go again!

Dan Szymborski: And probably a lot of flies once that chili turns

Guest: I understand the whole “regressing to the mean” concept, but can you explain in words that will break into my monkey brain why there could be 5 93+ win teams last year, and yet Zips thinks only the dodgers will eclipse 91 wins in an average projection?

Dan Szymborski: sure, these are all 50th percentile projections

Dan Szymborski: but you expect three teams to be 90th to 100th

Dan Szymborski: three teams to be 80th to 90th

Dan Szymborski: three teams to be 70th to 80th

Dan Szymborski: and division winners consist of far more teams taht BEAT expectations than teams that fell short of expectations

Guest: do you pretty much agree to any podcast requests, or does it have to be of a certain size?

Dan Szymborski: I will agree to ANY thing if it intrigues me

Dan Szymborski: an old BTF poster whose handle I won’t mention as to not embarrass him, got me to live snark his league’s fantasy draft

Guest: oh wow dan just admitted skyline is chili!

Dan Szymborski: oh no

Dan Szymborski: I mean it is chili, just awful chili

Wes: I love the minimalist ballpark graphics that you use for the ZiPS projections. Do you know the Eephus League person who made them? It would be so cool to get them all on a poster or something

Dan Szymborski: The basic outlines were obtained by carson years ago

Dan Szymborski: technically I do a lot to them – the color schemes and the like

Dan Szymborski: and I’ve made changes to ones I’ve needed to

Kevin: You’ve made occasional comments suggesting you have contact with some in the Rockies’ R&D department. If so, what have you heard about how they feel about the team’s recent changes?

Dan Szymborski: I talk to most teams!

Dan Szymborski: There are very few teams I don’t talk to

Adenolith: You typed head line and complained about proper English…

Adam: What have been the top five World Series in your lifetime?

Dan Szymborski: 1986, 1991, 2025, 2011, 2016

Jeremy: When it’s this cold out do you do a full ZiPS run to warm your house up?

Dan Szymborski: Not intentionally

Dan Szymborski: But it worekd out this way in that I was doing a run over the weekend when it was snowing

Dan Szymborski: I keep my thermostat set to 68 in the winter, but my basement office was up around 70-72 over the weekend while the laundry room on the same floor was at 65

Dan Szymborski: Having a 8700K and a 5900X running at 100% for 24 and 18 hours respectively generates a lot of heat!

Dan Szymborski: especially since both are overlcocked

Mike: Wait, let’s go back to the 5 tvs….what are you watching with 5 tvs?

Dan Szymborski: A lot of times nothing

the person who asks the lunch question: Is it a lunch day? If so, what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: It is not a lunch day

Key Flaw: Which regional food (NOT Maryland, though) do you like despite it being objectively weird? Rochester Garbage Plate isn’t so bad….

Dan Szymborski: fried spam? is that weird?

Dan Szymborski: maybe fried pickles if that’s not weird enough

Dan Szymborski: or frito pie

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there are a lot of weird regional things I don’t like

Guest: you’ve mentioned you have ZiPS stored away in a secret location before. I’m not going to try to find it, BUT are there clues / breadcrumbs that would hint as to its location? Like under a rock shaped like home plate? Or its coordinates are your birthday or something? Or is it completely random?

Dan Szymborski: In my will

Dan Szymborski: I’m still trying to decide if I want to do a treasure hunt

Dan Szymborski: if I die before putting together a succession plan, my executor has instructions to do a treasure hunt

Dan Szymborski: though I’m not sure how serious Alan woudl take me since he’s known me forever

Adenolith: Percentage of players who debuted in each decade to reach the HOF among those who reached at least 5k PAs or 2K IP –

Pre 1900: 22%
00-09: 20%
10-19: 23%
20-29: 36%
30-29: 20%
40-49: 25%
50-59: 22%
60-69:16%
70-79: 11%
80-89: 11%
90-99: 9%

Looks like it USED to be the Hall of Very Good and we’ve been making it tougher to get in for the last 50 years.

Sandwich: You run a million sims of the season where each team varies in its own quality, right?. But wouldn’t the 50th percentile projections be taking a 50th percentile outcome for each team and running sims of that?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS FIRST simulates a million versions of the roster itself, which is not the median outcome

Dan Szymborski: so sometimes a bunch of players will have their 10th percentile seasons or their 90th or something

Dan Szymborski: The underlying ability of a team in the million sims is already a distribution, not a point

Guest: These stupid journalismmen now a days cant even right proper

Adam: Could there be a competitive advantage to be gained by having the league’s best grounds crew?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure. There might be one at having the most devious grounds crew

Guest: Could there be a competitive advantage to be gained by having the league’s worst grounds crew?

Dan Szymborski: There might be!

Joseph Andrews: In what I guess is old internet terminology, I am a ‘newbie’ here but will wait and see if my question is appropriate

Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to have an inappropriatei

Guest: still, I feel like a few years ago the chats were lit up with things that were / were not chili. You calling skyline chili is WILD to 2021 me

Dan Szymborski: maybe I’ve mellowed

Dan Szymborski: or maybe I’m just tired since I didn’t sleep well last night

Crabby: Teams that are already overperforming at midseason tend to acquire good players and get better.  Team that are already underperforming trade away good players and get worse.  Does ZiPS know this in it’s percentiles?  Seems like it would stretch the tails in both directions

Dan Szymborski: I’ve tried to model this, but it’s been too shitty to be useful

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I do have to head out foranother week

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everyone!