Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/6/22
12:01 |
: Who has a better chance to exceed their zips projection in your opinion, Enrique Hernandez or DJ Lemahieu?
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12:01 |
: Probably DJ as ZiPS is pretty bullish on Kiké
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12:01 |
: Oh, and hello, and welcome to 2022!
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12:01 |
: How does ZiPS see Matt Chapman’s offense next year? Is he a target for Toronto to fill the 3B hole?
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12:02 |
: Cheating to try and see the projection early!
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12:02 |
: How does ZiPs like Cubs prospect Richard Gallardo? 90+ above average innings in A ball at 19 with a maybe 55% GB rate and 7-8% BB rate
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12:03 |
: Haven’t run him yet. Don’t like running pitchers below Double-A because the error bars are pure ROFLcopter. I do run them for the Top 100, but I’m not confident enough for a seasonal projection.
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12:04 |
: Where do you get your ideas from?
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12:04 |
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12:04 |
: Thoughts on the Cubs trading for Kim on the Padres?
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12:05 |
: I’m not sure it’s the best fit, the Cubs should be more interested in outfielders right now
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12:05 |
: Happy New Year, Dan! Given Tatis and Ohtani got pretty similar total WAR projections in ZiPS, it got me to wondering – if they wound up with a tied WAR at the end of 2022, which player is more valuable? Tatis given the overwhelming offense and playing a premium defensive position? Or Ohtani given that quite a bit of value is derived from pitching?
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12:05 |
: If it’s tied, it becomes tricky!
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12:05 |
: And who is more valuable may come down to circumstances of which I dot not know of ahead of time
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12:05 |
: Were you surprised to see Tatis Jr.’s WAR projection? Do super young MLBers who are already great improve at a different rate as they age compared to super young MLBers who are average?
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12:06 |
: A little since ZiPS isn’t usually that aggressive. But given how Tatis has played, it’s hard for me to find a real objective reason to talk it down
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12:06 |
: When does the Mets projections come out?
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12:07 |
: I guarantee the Mets will be one of the next nine teams to go in ZiPS!
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12:07 |
: I’ve been following ZiPS projections for 6-7 years now, and it always seems to undershoot Xander Bogaerts’ WAR. Excluding the shortened 2020 he has outperformed his preseason projections by more than 5 wins since the beginning of 2017. The offensive projections are always spot on though, which leads me to believe it’s something with how D is incorporated, and I know Xander’s defense has always been wonky depending on where you look. Is there a difference there or am I imagining things?
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12:07 |
: I’d have to dig into the cause which is a little tricky.
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12:07 |
: You do expect a few players to outperform/underperform regularly just by chance
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12:08 |
: It’s the kind of thing that’s hard to extract, simply because the easy calibration stuff is done.
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12:08 |
: Year-to-year over/underperformance correlation is just about 0.
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12:10 |
: Lemme open ZiPS and get the WAR data v. fWAR
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12:12 |
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12:13 |
: (Not only is there no correlation between Year 0 miss and Year 1 miss, there’s no correlation between X number of under/overperformance to future ones)
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12:13 |
: Have you ever done a ZIPS for Ray Chapman? Thinking about it as I read The Pitch That Killed.
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12:13 |
: I have not. I may do that for a Time Warp
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12:14 |
: Is Bill Schmidt a net positive over Bridich just in the fact that he seems to be nicer to deal with?
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12:15 |
: While that’s possible
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12:15 |
: He’s also farther from being fired than Bridich was last year
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12:15 |
: Will Jo Adell emerge late or just bust?
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12:15 |
: I think he was derailed, but I’m still cautiously optimistic
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12:15 |
: It seems to me that every year FG projects the Mets to do OK, and every year they disappoint. Is this just my bias as a disappointed Mets fan, or is this actually happening? If it’s actual, is this the opposite of the Rays projection problem, that the Mets don’t have enough depth?
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12:15 |
: Depends what you mean by FG.
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12:15 |
: ZiPS and FG use different methodologies
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12:16 |
: Like FG had Rays at 82.9 preseason, while ZiPS was at 87.4
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12:17 |
: And ZiPS had Mets tied with Braves while FG had Mets 3.5 ahead
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12:18 |
: Conversely, ZiPS had Red Sox at 79.3 with FG at 85.0
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12:18 |
: Is the knuckleball dead because of the low seams on the current baseball?
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12:18 |
: I think the larger reason is that it’s just a hard thing to do
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12:18 |
: Hormel chili in a pinch?
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12:18 |
: PRetty big pinch
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12:18 |
: A few years back in the positional power rankings for…2B? you wrote one of the funniest things I’d ever read, inside or outside of sports writing, and I can’t find it anymore. It was about the Marlins; you wrote a paragraph about Buddhist corpse meditation. Any chance you have a link and/or can repaste it here?
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12:19 |
: That may have not been me?
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12:21 |
: Yea, doesn’t appear to be me.
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12:21 |
: Dangit
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12:22 |
: I am one of the better projected player via Zips this year for the Sox with nowhere to play. Do I get traded? If so, where is your best guess?
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12:22 |
: I think Sox hang onto you
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12:22 |
: Odds that the season starts on time?
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12:22 |
: I’m actually 70/30 in favor
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12:22 |
: And I’ll tell you why
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12:22 |
: It’s a mess right now, but on a fundamental level, they’re not so far apart on things.
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12:23 |
: So I think it’s longer than ideal to get serious
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12:23 |
: but then when talks become actually serious, it starts quickly
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12:23 |
: well, goes quickly
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12:23 |
: Does Story make sense for Boston?
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12:24 |
: It wouldn’t be a bad idea, looking to play Kiké more as a CF
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12:24 |
: What’s the 90%tile ZiPs projection for Kris Bryant’s 2022?
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12:28 |
: 6.5 WAR
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12:28 |
: Have you been to a Jollibee? The jolly spaghetti feels like something you would find upsetting.
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12:28 |
: God, I’m afraid to google that
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12:28 |
: Googling terms I’m not familiar with has led to a lot of frightening sexual images
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12:29 |
: HAM AND HOTDOG?
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12:29 |
: I am on a boring work call that reminds me why I never want to go to sleep. Please help.
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12:29 |
: On boring conference calls, I’ll do something like mine in FFXIV
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12:29 |
: Will we be getting another teams ZiPs this week? If so, why do you hate the NL East?
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12:29 |
: Yup, one more team
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12:29 |
: And it’s all random!
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12:30 |
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12:31 |
: You seriously think I’ll have the same wRC+ as Anthony Rizzo?
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12:31 |
: ZiPS likes Rizzo in Yankee Stadium (which he won’t be at)
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12:32 |
: What does ZiPS rely on most when it comes to its opinion on how good a player’s defense is? Especially for minor leaguers.
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12:32 |
: I have a probabilistic measure with Gameday data.
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12:32 |
: Without giving away any ZiPS spoilers, if you had the choice right now, would you trade for Matt Chapman or Matt Olson? Can only pick one
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12:33 |
: Yes, given a choice, I would choose to trade for Matt Chapman or Matt Olson. I am only picking the one: the option that allows me to trade for Matt Chapman or Matt Olson.
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12:33 |
: Has the NY Times tried to buy ZiPS?
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12:33 |
: No
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12:33 |
: What would they do with it?
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12:33 |
: Do you collect anything?
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12:34 |
: If my office is any indication, computers and dishes I need to bring upstairs.
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12:34 |
: If you were to exchange surname consonants with another Fangraphs writer, which writer would you pick, which consonant would you take, and which would you give back in return? Why?
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12:34 |
: I think I’d take one of Jay’s J’s.
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12:34 |
: Given him an S
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12:34 |
: And make people figure out HTW to say Zjymborski
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12:35 |
: What would be a good starting point for someone looking to get into classical music?
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12:35 |
: Depends what you’re into!
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12:36 |
: I have a basic spotify playlist of recordings I like over a broad segment
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12:36 |
: What is the most surprising(to you) ZiPS projection that you have seen this year? Good or bad
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12:36 |
: Generally speaking, how positive the ZiPS for Detroit are.
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12:37 |
: Jollibee is a Filipino fast food chain featuring fried chicken and a version of spaghetti that is like something from one of those limited ingredient cooking shows — “you must make spaghetti, but your only ingredients are noodles, ketchup, and leftover hot dogs”
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12:37 |
: Only a 127 OPS+ for me? Why does ZiPS not like me? I hit ball very hard
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12:37 |
: You’re also not young and your bonkers year is also farther back
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12:38 |
: is AEW falling into the same trap as mid 90s WCW (sign a bunch of wrestlers over from another promotion and hope they continue their success)?
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12:38 |
: There’s always that risk, but between the playoffs, crazy pre-lockout market, and then ZiPS, I’m WAY behind on my vieweing
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12:38 |
: Love your ZiPs post on Jays – big fan – which got me dreaming of how Jays might best address their pitching. Would Kirk/Groshans to Marlins for Cabrera/Bender make sense ? Who says no ? or who has to add ?
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12:38 |
: It’s not crazy
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12:39 |
: Can you help me understand how Zips projects a pitchers wins and loses? (yes, I know those are terrible stats to look at). For instance, Antonio Senzatela is projected for a 4.35 era in 28 starts and an 8-6 record. Kyle Freeland is 4.85 era in 25 starts but a 9-8 record. What drives that difference? Shouldn’t Freeland have less wins because of his higher Era?
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12:41 |
: Sorry door
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12:42 |
: It’s mostly a decision thing
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12:42 |
: As far as I can tell looking at this for 45 seconds
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12:42 |
: ZiPS has Freeland getting to a decision slightly more often
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12:43 |
: But it’s hard to extract that from a model super quickly
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12:44 |
: Apology not accepted.
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12:45 |
: What do you estimate forecasting ZiPS accuracy is, relative to teams in-house models? E.g., 50%? 75%?
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12:45 |
: It’s hard to say as they don’t give me access.
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12:45 |
: Now, teams and agents still buy as much data as ever. So it’s at least being perceived as useful somehow.
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12:46 |
: But I can’t really answer that question accurately!
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12:47 |
: If someone where to take on the entire Hosmer contract as it stands right now would the team, from a LuxTax perspective, be responsable for the original contract AVV (18mil/y) or the AVV of what’s remaining (14.25mil/y) and does the 3 year 39/mil player option change anything? I dpm’
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12:47 |
If the Base Salary (plus any deferred compensation or annuity costs) in a Player Option Year (“Player Option Year Value”) is less than 80% of the Base Salary (plus any attributed Signing Bonus, deferred compensation or annuity costs) in the Guaranteed Year with the smallest such figure before the first such Player Option Year (80% Figure), then, for each such Player Option Year, the difference between the Player Option Year Value and the 80% Figure shall be allocated pro rata across the Guaran- teed Years preceding the first such Player Option Year; provided, however, that if the 80% Figure is itself less than 75% of the AAV of the Contract (calculated as if the Player Option Year was not a Guaranteed Year), then the 80% Figure shall instead be 75% of the AAV calculation set out immediately above.
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12:47 |
: Do you have a chili recipe you recommend/follow or at this point do you just do it all from memory.
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12:48 |
: Recipes are for baking, not cooking!
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12:48 |
: The basics are easy.
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12:48 |
: Cubed steak
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12:48 |
: Reconstitute interesting chili peppers in water. Sear them a bit on the stove
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12:50 |
: Make a paste in processor of chili peppers, masa harina, salt, pepper, cumin, can of chipotle en adobo, and some water until it’s like a condiment.
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12:50 |
: Brown the meat. Add the paste. Cook low until the meat is your desired toothsomeness
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12:50 |
: Probably a stupid question, but can agents talk to GMs during the lockout? Will we see a flurry of signings once this ends? Thanks
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12:51 |
: As I understand it, agents cannot talk to GMs in any capacity that involves representing their client
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12:52 |
: What’s the worst contract in MLB right now?
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12:52 |
: It may be Stanton. He’s fine now, but he’s owed just under $200 million or so
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12:53 |
: Nick Yorke for Boston didnt get a Zips projection as well as Jasson Dominguez, would you expect projections for them next year? What is the cutoff to make team lists full season of AA?
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12:53 |
: Dominguez will likely get one next year.
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12:53 |
: Very likely
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12:53 |
: Yorke too.
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12:53 |
: have you ever had chicken chili? Its a white base instead of red & its delicious
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12:53 |
: Not really my thing, though I like chicken
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12:53 |
: Shostakovich’s 8th string quartet is an 80 piece
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12:54 |
: Strasburg says hi
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12:54 |
: Given the health worries, that’s another option
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12:54 |
: As a Dodgers fan, I’d say Bauer is the worst contract
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12:54 |
: Depends if we’re talking financially!
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12:55 |
: The Tigers owe Cabrera like $72 million
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12:55 |
: Would you take the over or under on Zips’ projection for WAR for Tatis? (7.6 or 7.9, depending on where in the article you look)
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12:56 |
: Probably the under since I tend to be a pessimist
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12:56 |
: Hi Dan! Would you rather field a team of players who ~each~ have 60 bats and 45 gloves, or 45 bats and 60 gloves?
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12:56 |
: Probably the former – variance among hitting is higher and I can design my pitching staff towards these concerns
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12:56 |
: Often in these chats, my questions aren’t answered. I’m not offering this as negative feedback, but an opportunity for me to learn how to ask better questions on here and figure out response times. I try and ask questions early however I obviously will never know what your queue looks like. Do you choose quality of question over chronology for the most part and what recommendations would you make for higher engagement on these chats (also thank you for your work and diligence).
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12:56 |
: How I choose question is a complete madhouse
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12:56 |
: Because you guys ask a TON of questions
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12:57 |
: I typically only get to about 20% of them
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12:57 |
: I try to answer questions that are both interesting to me and interesting to the readers
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12:57 |
: And questions that I’m able to answer
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12:57 |
: And questions that I’m able to answer *in a reasonable timeframe*
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12:58 |
: If I have to think about a question for a few minutes, those are minutes that questions aren’t being answered. So a long-time-to-answer question kind of “eats” other questions
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12:58 |
: And I like variety
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12:58 |
: Can you and will you use ZiPS to find out what Ichiro’s MLB stats would have looked like had he started in his early 20s?
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12:58 |
: I have!
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12:58 |
Combine his MLB total with his 1,278 hits for Nippon Professional Baseball and it adds up to 4,256, a number that any fan of baseball will instantly recognize as Pete Rose’s MLB record for hits in a career. Now, reaching this landmark is not exactly the same as catching Pete Rose, but it is significant for baseball. While NPB is not MLB, it is the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. It ranks below the majors but above the two Triple-A leagues: the International League and the Pacific Coast League. Who’s the all-time hit king after Ichiro ties Rose? Depends on whom you ask |
12:59 |
chiro Suzuki’s Projected MLB Stats
: YEARTEAMBAOBPSLGGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOHPSBCSSF1992SEA*.228.245.2724092321400421203301993SEA*.177.203.258436231120132800301994SEA*.355.399.48388358671272264312338418711995SEA*.313.377.441123479871501771063415310431331996SEA*.327.375.428130523921711877703660632431997SEA*.315.363.432135518831632378763938336641998SEA*.328.368.443135488701602856592837410621999SEA*.315.363.451103397681252139572848411642000SEA*.354.405.4491053816413517256134413 |
12:59 |
: oh god
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12:59 |
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2014-positional-power-rankings-second-base…) So oops, but thank you for helping me to fix my search, and also for being humorous enough that I thought the line was yours.
: Corpse meditation was Carson Cistulli, it turns out – it was back in 2014 and thus much farther back than I realized. ( |
12:59 |
: Man, I end up researching away my compliment AND GIVING IT TO MY ARCHENEMY, CARSON
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1:00 |
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1:01 |
: I’m disappointed you didn’t take the bait on “7.6 or 7.9, depending on where in the article you look”
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1:01 |
: Have you been following the guy on Reddit that draws a new picture of Trout each day during the lockout? If so, what has your favorite been so far?
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1:01 |
: I have when I see it on my timeline! Would have to look a them all
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1:01 |
: Joining late so sorry if you have already answered this. I am curious if and how you handled the weighting of the pandemic shortened season and the rebound 2021 season.
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1:01 |
: I treated it as if it was a normal season that stopped after May
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1:02 |
: and then did rest-of-season projections to “fill out” the projections
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1:02 |
: that worked better for hitters than pitchers in the end
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1:02 |
: If you were to run a team, would you want it to be a team you had a pre-existing emotional attachment to? In general, I often wonder about what happens to the childhood fandoms of players and folks in the industry.
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1:02 |
: Honestly, I’d pick the Reds so I don’t have to go through the hassle of moving
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1:02 |
: Working full time for a team simply isn’t one of my passions
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1:03 |
: Though I can’t completely discount the possibility that someone can make a specific offer I find compelling
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1:03 |
: I’m the most interesting Chili Pepper.
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1:03 |
: Can ZiPS express change in league talent over time? Like projecting how someone from the 1980s would do if dropped in 2022 based on how the overall talent in the league has progressed?
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1:03 |
: It does on a year-to-year basis, but it’s not really geared towards questions like “How would Ruth do today?”
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1:03 |
: Think Soto ever achieves a .500 OBP in a full season?
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1:04 |
: No
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1:04 |
: Is the best contract (not counting arb/rookie deals) Wander Franco’s?
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1:04 |
: It might be Acuña
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1:04 |
: Or Albies
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1:05 |
: Low Cut Connie is a nice companion to your chats.
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1:05 |
: I’m currently listening to Right Away, Great Captain!
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1:06 |
: At the start of the chat, I was finishing up Casella’s violin concerto
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1:07 |
: Dan, could you name the new INDY ball team ballpark sharing with the Legends in Lexington this year.
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1:07 |
: Well, how much are they asking?
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1:07 |
: One cannot create a statistic that convinces me Joe Nathan is one of the ten best baseball players on the ballot, and I am a big hall let them all in guy.
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1:07 |
: So not sold on SAVES OVER REPLACEMENT WHICH IS USED FOR ALL PLAYERS?
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1:07 |
: Bait avoided a 2nd time! [shakes fist angrily in air]
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1:08 |
: Worst contract honorable mention – Anthony Rendon.
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1:08 |
: Which team would win in a playoff style bracket? A team that’s all on cocaine, a team that’s all tripping on mushrooms, a team tripping on acid, or a drunk team?
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1:08 |
: cocaine
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1:08 |
: easy
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1:08 |
: Just to clarify, the Jollibee fried chicken is legit. And often they are located near a bakery chain called Red Ribbon that has crazy good Filipino empanadas.
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1:08 |
: Oh, there’s some great Filipino food!
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1:08 |
: I just don’t particularly care to try the hot dog and ham spaghetti that was linked!
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1:09 |
: You live near Cincinnati, right? How do you like it there? I’ve thought of moving there from Madison, WI due to the cheaper COL and relatively milder winters.
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1:09 |
: I do live near Cincy
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1:09 |
: I like it fine, especially now that Cincy people have forgotten they want to murder me for my Rookie of the Year vote
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1:09 |
: It’s a simple drive to east coast
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1:09 |
: Only problem is steamed crab access. I have to order those shipped
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1:10 |
: You can get seafood, but there’s no market in Ohio for steamed crabs because of what is involved
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1:10 |
: Have you ever gotten a really bizarre projection request from a legit source like a team? Not talking about a player in the minor leagues, NPB, or KBO. I mean some unknown player from the CPBL or some random dude playing in Australia.
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1:11 |
: I have, but I observe strict confidentiality.
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1:11 |
: Pick a player that is in desperate need of a new years resolution and give them a plan (a Dan) to improve. Go.
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1:11 |
: DAVID FLETCHER, JUST BECAUSE YOU *CAN* PUT ANYTHING INTO PLAY DOESN”T MEAN YOU SHOULD. WE BELIEVE YOU
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1:11 |
: let’s say you’re in the mall and someone yells “DANNY!” do you turn around? what about with “DANIEL?”
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1:12 |
: Only if it sounds like my mom or sister
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1:12 |
: There are only three living people who call me Danny: My mom, my sister, and my godfather Armin.
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1:12 |
: Armin is 96 so he’s unlikely to be at a mall 500 miles from his house
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1:13 |
: The only living person who calls me Daniel is my mom when she’s annoyed with me
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1:13 |
: Everyone also calls me Dan
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1:13 |
: What’s the worst thing you’ve ever eaten?
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1:13 |
: century egg
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1:13 |
: But luckily, you can’t accidentally eat one
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1:13 |
: Of things you can actually run into unknowingly
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1:14 |
: This lavender chocolate that tasted like absolute burning in my mouth. I think it was in a Whitman’s or something similar
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1:14 |
: It was 25 years ago and I STILL can cringe and taste that awful acrid soaplike burning.
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1:14 |
: Could you provide an guess as to what might have changed on Tatis between his preliminary projection you provided in the NL West Elegy and the one posted yesterday, it seems his WAR landed between the 60-70% of the preliminary.
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1:14 |
: All the data wasn’t in an processed yet
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1:14 |
: Who is your favorite player in the game right now?
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1:15 |
: Soto
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1:15 |
: The Guest insists upon a house feline status update.
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1:15 |
: Justinian is on my lap (he usually is this time of day)
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1:15 |
: Mercutio is on the living room floor waiting for the sun to come to him. He has noticed that it’s very cloudy
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1:15 |
: he HASNT
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1:15 |
: Constantine is in the spoon of the cat tree sleeping
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1:16 |
: and Cassiopeia is in one of the closets sleeping. Cassie picked on Constantine but he hit her back harder and she stormed off to closet
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1:16 |
: Looking at that Cistulli article on the 2B class of 2014 makes me feel 100 years old. How is it possible that was published less than 8 years ago??
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1:16 |
: When you were a kid did you like math or writing better?
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1:17 |
: I loved both. Writing probably a little more
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1:17 |
: Which do you find yourself saying in your head more often, Florida Marlins or Anaheim Angels? (California Angels?)
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1:17 |
: florida marlins
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1:17 |
: Have you ever moved data from normal hard drive to SSD? If so, any software recommendations?
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1:17 |
: I have, but never with software as far as I can tell
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1:17 |
: I generally use SSDs for OSs and most used programs
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1:17 |
: While I keep data on several redundant HDDs
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1:18 |
: You have any particular interest in the happenings of the James Webb Space Telescope?
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1:18 |
: I’m not uninterested, but I haven’t been paying attention
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1:18 |
: Which company/year had the best baseball card design?
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1:18 |
: 1972 Topps of course!
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1:19 |
: I really liked those bluish Fleer cards in the mid-80s that had the scouting reports and heat maps on the back
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1:19 |
: There was obviously no Statcast or FG then!
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1:19 |
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1:20 |
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1:20 |
: How many chats in a row without receiving a question about chili before you’d begin to wonder if something suspicious was going on?
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1:20 |
: 1
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1:20 |
: If analytics weren’t a thing and we only relied on old school stuff, who would be considered to be the best player in the game right now?
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1:20 |
: Harper
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1:22 |
: You will win $1 million if one MLB player gets a hit in one at-bat, one chance at it. The pitcher is Max Scherzer. Which hitter are you choosing?
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1:22 |
: I want a lefty who makes good contact
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1:22 |
: Gimme Brantley
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1:22 |
: The Marlins aren’t the Florida Marlins?
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1:22 |
: Dan, I really enjoyed your ZiPS breakdown of the Jays. Would you say upgrading 3B is the biggest priority post-lockout?
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1:22 |
: I think one more starter then 3rd
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1:22 |
: How do you rate the quality of the international leagues (whether in ZiPS or just in general)? I’m a Red Sox fan dreaming on Seiya Suzuki and trying to figure out what’s reasonable to hope for.
|
1:23 |
: I get NPB as between AAA 1/2 and KBO as AA 1/2
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1:23 |
a) badly on Phillies management for not being able to provide a quality manager what he needed when he managed the team at the time? b) well on Phillies management for identifying up-and-coming managerial talent? |
1:23 |
: Probably doesn’t reflect anything systemic
|
1:23 |
: Other than in this case, the Phillies ownership/front office misidentified their faults as Kapler’s
|
1:24 |
: They didn’t need a manager “who knows how to win.”
|
1:24 |
: They needed — and still do — better players.
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1:24 |
: Thanks for doing the chats. They’re awesome
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1:24 |
: Hope people enjoy them!
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1:24 |
: And on that note, it’s sadly time to end it for this week.
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1:25 |
: As I have a ZiPS team that I will not name to finish up
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1:25 |
: The depth chart will be available on Twitter in a few hours! @DSzymborski
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Re Jollibee’s spaghetti, remember the Spaghettios with franks is still on the market and was introduced back in the 60s.