Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/12/15

Dan Szymborski: OK, I can’t let the suspense hang any longer. I have spoken. With my fingers. I’m not saying my answers out loud alone in my office because that’s whawt really crazy people do, not just regular crazy like me.

Comment From Phillies113
Dan, I imagine it’s going to be a short chat today, as nothing interesting or news-worthy happened this weekend, so there’s nothing to talk about.

Dan Szymborski: There were only like a half-dozen games! What a slow weekend!

Comment From Art Vandelay
The writers are tired of four-game MEGACHATS, huh?

Dan Szymborski: If you don’t have microchats, than the megachats feel less special

Comment From Minty
The Dodgers have two OF with much potential, do you trust Joc or Puig to figure it out first

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll both be fine.

Comment From W. Campbell
if the cards beat arrieta today, will monkeys fly out of my butt?

Dan Szymborski: Only if you have live monkeys in your intestines.

Dan Szymborski: And monkeys don’t really fly, they mostly glide from tree to tree.

Comment From Tommy
Imagine you just discovered that you love baseball. Imagine that you don’t have any particular team to root for because you’re not from USA so not home-team feeling. What team do you think you’ve been rooting for, given the current circumstance happening in baseball (Astros being relevant, Texas been good, Dodgers AKA money team, Yankees being not-yankees…?

Dan Szymborski: If I just discovered I love baseball, you wouldn’t be reading me, so I shouldn’t be able to tell you!

Dan Szymborski: But if I cheat, I probably root for the Mets

Dan Szymborski: Might be the Astros, but they lose points for Septober.

Comment From Darth Stout
Good morning, Szym! Who should the Cubs start in game 4? Does your answer depend on whether they win today?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the answer really changes

Dan Szymborski: Maybe the Cubs go with Lester on 3 days rest if this was the World Series and there were no games after, but I expect we see Hammel Game 4.

Dan Szymborski: But Maddon can be an iconoclast and might go outside the box

Comment From Guest
What is the O/U on Arrieta runs allowed today?

Dan Szymborski: 2

Comment From BH
Is it wrong to react to the ALDS by pondering Eric Hosmer’s trade value?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Comment From Blerick
Praise Jesus, the Blue Jays live on

Dan Szymborski: Come one, there’s no way Jesus even heard of Canada

Comment From mtsw
Why is Reed Johnson so good at getting hit by pitches? Was looking at the list of active HBP leaders after I heard Utley was #1 and there he is near the top.

Dan Szymborski: Usually it’s a combination of willingness and batting style.

Comment From Rob
The wind blowing out 20 mph actually hurts the cubs today, right? With normal conditions Arrieta-Wacha seems like a clear advantage. This wind gives the Cardinals a chance to score some runs.

Dan Szymborski: Not sure I agree – Arrieta keeps the ball down.

Dan Szymborski: And I *think* he only had one multi HR game all year

Comment From Los
Quick question on WAR. If an 81-81 team replaces a replacement level player with a 10 WAR player, are they supposed to go 91-71 or 86-76?

Dan Szymborski: 91-71

Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t know how the Reds acquire Mike Trout.

Comment From RotoLando
When will MLB pull it’s head out of the sand and ban the Electric Slide?

Dan Szymborski: MLB, like the other major sports, only pull their heads out of the sand when they’re practically forced to – sports leagues are really bad at being on top of these things

Dan Szymborski: It’s *amazing* that MLBAM did such a good job being on top of internet generation, though I suspect MLB will eventually get more involved and screw it up somehow

Comment From Miggy Azalea
Chances that Utley gets pegged tonight, over/under 99.9%?

Dan Szymborski: I think lower – I think when push comes to shove, there are a lot more eyes watching the Mets reaction than the normal, similar situation

Comment From Los
Can we feel sorrow for the last day in 2015 with more than 2 baseball games?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Rhendricks
Given the current standings, who do you have advancing to the Championship Series?

Dan Szymborski: 2-1 is a pretty big deal, so Rangers/Astros large favorites. In the now-coinflippy NL (both the slightly lesser teams have broken serve), I think I’ll go with Cubs and Mets.

Comment From Blerick
The answer is Blue Jays

Comment From BH
Who’ll contribute more: Cueto/Zobrist in the next few days or Lamb/Finnegan/Reed/Brooks/Manaea for the rest of their careers in Cincy/Oakland?

Dan Szymborski: Well, the latter, but KC’s motivation was rightly not solely on that.

Comment From mtsw
New baseball fans should be encouraged to root for a hopeless, floundering team like the Rockies. Anything else is bandwagoning. Get in on the ground floor or any eventual victory for your team will feel hollow.

Dan Szymborski: Without new ownership/front office, rooting for the Rockies for a decade will hollow out your soul and make you a serial killer.

Dan Szymborski: You could be dismembering prostitutes in your murder shed but the jury would be like “Yeah, we couldn’t fault the guy – he was watching a team that has an odd obsession with Brandon Barnes.”

Comment From MIke
How much of the Utley debacle stems from the umpires decisions on the field? I feel like 95% of the time, they would have ignored the interference like they did, but that they also wouldn’t have allowed a review by invoking the neighborhood play. If they had done that (resulting in Utley being out), could they have avoided this situation getting out of hand?

Dan Szymborski: Umpires are supposed to defuse situations. MLB umpires, more often than not, make everything worse.

Dan Szymborski: Long-term MLB needs to make good umpiring a priority, even if it causes difficult labor problems with the umps

Dan Szymborski: The best umpire is one you don’t notice.

Comment From The+Dude
Which game are you most pumped up for today?

Dan Szymborski: Cubs/Cardinals. Wacha/Arrieta could be a classic.

Comment From RotoLando
What’s a good Septoberfest beer/meal?

Dan Szymborski: Starvation diet?

Comment From The+Dude
Why weren’t you part of the LDS Live Game Blog Extravaganza?

Dan Szymborski: I usually only contribute to a few of them.

Dan Szymborski: Of the big ones.

Dan Szymborski: ESPN going away from chats makes it less of a conflict for me, but I do have a tendency to talk over everyone.

Dan Szymborski: And, I assume, FanGraphs wants those platforms to highlight their own guys.

Comment From The+Dude
Will there be a live blog today?

Dan Szymborski: Now you’re asking specific questions I can’t answer!

Comment From Justin
If Chase plays, what are the odds: 1) he gets beaned; 2) a retaliation pitch against a Met; and 3) escalation into a full-scale brawl?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be Much Ado About Muffins.

Comment From Rhendricks
If the Cardinals lose tonight, some have said that they will consider starting Waino for game 4. Seeing as how he’s only pitched in a handful of games since April, is this even a possibility?

Dan Szymborski: It might be, though I dont’ thin kthey will.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like the alternative is throwing someone like Fauxsto Carmona out there. I know they don’t have Carmona, but I mean guys like that

Comment From NP
Versus a RHP, who gives the Cubs the best chance as the third outfielder in their lineup? Coghlan, Soler, or Jackson?

Dan Szymborski: oghlan

Dan Szymborski: WHERE DID MY C GO

Comment From RotoLando
Give us some predictions for today, baseball and/or otherwise

Dan Szymborski: I predict I will take a shower today. I didn’t take one yesterday since I was distracted by sports all day so if I stepped out of the house, someone would report me as a crazed homeless man and the cops would pick me up

Comment From The+Dude
This year, Anthony Rizzo tied for 16th most HBP in a single season in MLB history. Always nice to be in the record books.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but it’s not like you can put that on your power at the baseball signing.

Dan Szymborski: poster

Dan Szymborski: Luckily, he’s really good at baseball otherwise.

Dan Szymborski: If Ron Hunt showed up at baseball card shows (do those still exist?) with a sign that said “Baseball’s Seven Time Hit by Pitch Champ” he’d end up with a site like http://lonelyvirgil.net/

Comment From BMarkham
Non-playoff question: What does the Zips machine say Votto is worth over the 8 remaining guaranteed years on his contract?

Dan Szymborski: Down to only like $12 million less than the contract. He really crushed a lot of the uncertainty.

Dan Szymborski: Though he never made by the ZiPS Worst 10 update.

Dan Szymborski: The August list was:

Dan Szymborski: Player Contract Value
Albert Pujols -$108.9
Matt Kemp -$85.1
Miguel Cabrera -$84.1
Shin-Soo Choo -$84.1
Robinson Cano -$79.1
Prince Fielder -$76.9
Justin Verlander -$70.9
C.C. Sabathia -$53.7
Joe Mauer -$51.4
Elvis Andrus -$51.2

Comment From MSW
You can’t leave us hanging here, what’s your take on Chaseghazi? I think Torre was right to go for the suspension – Utley never actually slid, unlike in previous take-out slides where the runner made some kind of attempt to look like they’re sliding.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s necessary, though MLB is starting to get interested in this about 50 years too late.

Dan Szymborski: Though I suspect Utley wins his appeal because, well, baseball’s starting this about 50 years too late.

Comment From Andrelton Simmons Big Rig
Any chance us DMB players will be able to use Mookie Betts at 2nd again next year with a rating?

Dan Szymborski: Probably, but it will now be a very bad rating and the last year of it

Comment From jasy
The Pads infield seems a mess. Is Spangenberg worth a shot? Can Gyorko play short?

Dan Szymborski: Spangenberg had a pretty solid year. I can’t imaginme Gyorko being good at short

Comment From KHitt
Mattingly should bat Utley 1st. Let him get drilled, then substitute him out.

Comment From Andy
The Reds purchase Mike Trout when Arte gets tired of the Angels coming close to the playoffs but not making it, and decides he’d rather bring a Broadway play to the OC somehow. Trout is sold for half a billion dollars.

Dan Szymborski: Like the Reds will spend half a billion dollars.

Dan Szymborski: If they *had* half-a-billion dollars, they’d just sign 100 5kip 5humakers anyway.

Comment From Buckleman
If the Jays have to go to the bullpen early, do you put in Price, Stroman, or neither?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the exact game state.

Comment From Ned Toast
Should the Astro’s be investigated for using Oliver Perez in a meaningful baseball game the other night? Seems like the only valid explanation would’ve been intentionally trying to throw the game…

Comment From TR
Did you know that Canadian’s don’t know how to catch?

Dan Szymborski: Canadians are polite and getting someone out is kinda rude

Comment From The+Dude
Sure, rooting for the Rockies might make you a serial killer, but rooting for the Marlins with Loria probably makes you instigate a genocide within two years.

Dan Szymborski: I think rooting for the Marlins, by now, has just left you in some kind of catatonic depression

Comment From The+Dude

Joe West and Madison Bumgarner have a friendly staring contest.

Dan Szymborski: I heard that if you stare into Cowboy Joe West’s eyes too long, he turns you into pancakes, like some kind of breakfast Medusa.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
So, where are you on the suspension, yea or nay?

Dan Szymborski: Yea but it won’t stick

Comment From MSW
I don’t think the Mets are going to retaliate in this game, but if they were to, wouldn’t it be smart to start a reliever tonight? Bring in a reliever you care less about, have him hit the first batter of the game, get tossed, then bring in Harvey who won’t have to worry about meting out justice.

Dan Szymborski: I think that just makes it more blatant.

Comment From Los
If the Pirates could skip the regular season and go straight into the one game playoff for 2016, should they do that? What would be more impactful in that situation, the possibility of missing the playoffs (down-side) or the possibility of winning division (up-side).

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, that would be a more interesting quewstion when 2016 projections start rumbling in

Comment From Range Factors
Hi Dan, are there any defensive metrics that include defensive performance on hits in the equation? Think of the speedy outfielder who cuts off a ball in the gap, limiting a potential double or triple into a single.

Dan Szymborski: Some of the advanced defensive metrics do include this to some degree but don’t break it down

Comment From Blue Crew
With possibly Price, Estrada, and Buehrle gone next year and no starting pitching prospects close to ready, is 2015 Toronto’s last playoffs for anoher 22 years (or at least 4).

Dan Szymborski: Well, remember they’re adding Stroman. I think it comes down to how aggressive ownership is willing to be in FA

Comment From jtt
The Astros have altuve, springer, correa and kechel for the next few years and not much else on the books. Outside of the cubs, are they the team best set up for a long term run?

Dan Szymborski: I think Astros have a solid run in them

Comment From Jim
It’s time for the Dodgers to go full heel right? (non-injury division)

Dan Szymborski: Nobody ever seems to do this. I’m still sad that A-Rod didn’t.

Comment From TR
How long is Dickey’s leash tonight?

Dan Szymborski: Depends. If he looks like crap, it won’t be long

Comment From jmh
As Cards fans have eagerly pointed out, their team has had success against “unbeatable” aces in recent playoff memory. This is just luck/baseball being baseball right? Any reason the Cards would be especially equipped to upset an ace (other than just being a good team)?

Dan Szymborski: Nah, people overthink matchups. In the end, it tends to come down to having generic great players is better than generic good players

Comment From The+Dude
How accurate is Zipps with rookies? Also, who does it predict is worth more WAR over team controlled years: Correa or Bryant?

Dan Szymborski: Less accurate than a time machine, more accurate than a dart board. Hard to give a simple one-word answer for that – it’ s a little worse with players with shorter resumés than players with longer ones, as you’d expect.

Comment From TR
Today is Canadian Thanksgiving, is it a bastardization to butterfly my turkey in search of perfectly cooked white and dark meat?

Dan Szymborski: We actually always just did turkey breasts because everyone just likes the white meat

Dan Szymborski: Ronco rotisserie!

Dan Szymborski: I’m in charge of bringing turkey. When Galileo sees the rotisserie come out of the closet, he waits on the counter and then watches the turkey spin around the whole time. He usually gets the first piece.

Comment From Raoul Duke
One thing that bothers me about the Utley situation is that Sandy Alderson was seen at Dodger Stadium yelling at Joe Torre. Then the suspension issues. I just can’t imagine a situation where that’s appropriateAt the very least, I’d like Torre to describe that conversation.

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty I don’t think Torre was happy with the decision.

Comment From Andrew Freidman
If there is rain in the forecast, the Mets could argue a reliever was started in fear of rain leading to a short start for Harvey who would then be unavailable on Tuesday. Terry Collins already began posturing by expressing hope there aren’t warnings issued early.

Comment From The+Dude
Is there a difference between the Utley slide and the Coghlan slide that injured Kang? I don’t ask this rhetorically. I’m just curious if the slide was different?

Dan Szymborski: Not really, though at least Coghlan made more of an effort to touch the base while breaking up the play.

Comment From Cards Fan
RE: the Tommy Pham article, any hope for this guy? I’m not sayin he’s gonna be the greatest ball player ever but he is one heck of a fast twitch athlete.

Dan Szymborski: He did pretty darn well in the minors. I expect him to end up being more of a 4th outfielder type. nothing wrong with that

Comment From Colt Holt
Any word on what is happening in the Cardinals hacking of the Astros? As soon as it was revealed a high ranking official was involved, it got seriously quiet.

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure we’ll find out when the investigations are all done – it’s not something we’re getting a daily blow-by-blow

Dan Szymborski: There’s a federal investigation, after all, and nobody likes trying to dip into that

Comment From Jim
Generally speaking, we should leave risk/safety questions about participating in baseball to the actual participants right?

Dan Szymborski: No, because there are bigger questions involved and MLB doens’t exist for the benefit of the players

Dan Szymborski: Of course, there are benefits to the players, but the perceived risk to the involved is part of the package.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
That and young professional athletes are terrible at evaluating risk. They all want head shots back in football rather than having guys go for their knees.

Dan Szymborski: I would not have become as interested in baseball if every non-force play was decided by fistfight

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, maybe I would have been. I like violence, though I want it to be mutually agreed upon

Comment From Jim
Or, they are just making a trade off you don’t agree with.

Dan Szymborski: THey don’t own the league, it’s not their tradeoff to make.

Dan Szymborski: Do you think that Wal-Mart employees should be able to determine who has to work on Christmas and New Years among themselves by internally run fistfights in which they dip their wrapped hands in tar and then in broken glass?

Comment From Andrew Freidman
Regardless of outcome of Utley’s appeal, we intend to have Chase get hit by pitch in batting practice to prevent any need for retaliation in game. Be on the lookout for the black eye.

Comment From The+Dude
Is Yoando Ventura on mood regulating meds? He’s gone from picking a fight with Trout and clearing benches twice in two starts to starting game 1 and 4 of ALDS.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t care to speculate on any personal conditions he may or not have

Comment From Miggy Azalea
Situation: Royals down 2 runs in the top of the 7th inning, 1 out, and a man on 2nd against the tiring Keuchel nearing 120 pitches. Yost: “Better lay down a sac bunt!”

Comment From Andy
I can’t imagine a lot of owners wouldn’t support enforcing the rules. If Correa or Seager gets Tejada’d, Crane or the Guggenheim company would be livid.

Comment From The+Dude
A friend and I were theorizing about the possibility of creating a Fan Advocate position. Seeing as MLB is anti-trust exempt, requiring someone to look after the fan’s interests (such as black outs and $15 for a small beer) seems more than reasonable. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: The antitrust exemption doesn’t apply here.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not why you pay $x for a beer.

Dan Szymborski: You will pay that amount for a beer in every event by all those companies that *are* covered by sherman.

Comment From Vance
Don’t they have those kind of things in soccer? Organizations looking out for the fans?

Dan Szymborski: Couldn’t tell you mcuh about soccer.

Comment From W. Campbell
why not have baseball players wear football pads and helmets??!

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a contact sport

Comment From RotoLando
Holy shit YES!!!! (In answer to the Wal-Mart X-Mas Eve Survivor Series)

Dan Szymborski: I admit that I would probably enjoy watching it (and be ashamed that I do), but I don’t think they should be able to determine that

Comment From RotoLando
Is it odd that Canadian Thanksgiving is on the same day as Columbus Day?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. I guess they’re free to thank Columbus? Though someone else would have found it at some point.

Dan Szymborski: I mean we don’t commemorate the caveman that found out breathing water was bad.

Comment From Minty
How does ZIPS account for someone like Khris Davis going insane for the final month, but not doing much before?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never found it to actually mean anything. People *far far* overrate the value of knowing the distribution of recent performance

Comment From The+Dude
What I meant was that the anti-trust exemption is a privilege given by Congress, and thus indirectly, by us, the fans. I think MLB should put more effort into improving the fan’s experience (or at least not actively trying to ruin in) if they are to keep such a privilege. And yes, the idea was taken from soccer.

Dan Szymborski: Won’t happen.

Comment From The+Dude
I wanted your thoughts theoretically.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like the idea of government coercing a business with the threat of a law. If the law is just, write one. If it’s not, don’t.

Dan Szymborski: “We believe this law is just but we won’t write one unless you do something else unrelated to please our voters,” is the type of horse-trading I find disgusting.

Dan Szymborski: Pass just laws. Don’t pass unjust laws. But the idea of using the law as a cudgel for extracting specific unrelated behavior is just something I will never be happy with.

Comment From Vance
We do commemorate George Lucas making himself billions of dollars tho. “May the 4th”

Dan Szymborski: And now we get to celebrate that he no longer names characters.

Comment From Vance
Not to go Clinton on you, but then you have to determine what “just” is.

Dan Szymborski: No, we don’t. I’m arguing that laws should be passed on the basis of whether the politician itself believe its just

Dan Szymborski: In your scenario, there are only two real scenarios here

Dan Szymborski: A politician threatening to pass a law that he believes is unjust in order to extract particular behavior that his voters will like.

Dan Szymborski: That’s bad. You shouldn’t be threatening people or groups of people in ways you find unjust.

Dan Szymborski: But a politician threatning to pass an antitrust exemption bill, believe it just, but then *not* is doingo the same kind of undermining thing – in this case, instead of extorting an outcome with an unjust law, he’s willing to *not* pass a bill that he/she thinks is just.

Comment From August
In general, you don’t believe that a self organized fan group could provide any improvement? Vox Populi and all that. I feel currently the people who attend games have no voice to speak of. Doesn’t seem it would hurt anything to have a baseball fan trust so to speak.

Dan Szymborski: If the group can sufficiently alter sales, of course.

Dan Szymborski: But despite all the complaining, people are generally happy with the product and willing to pay the prices they pay.

Dan Szymborski: People can say they don’t like paying $8 for a beer, but they do it anyway, so it can’t be a hardship.

Comment From The+Dude
Did you know that players are allowed to use a force choke on opposing players? Damn Sith Lords.

Dan Szymborski: Luckily, Papelbon failed the jedi training and can only institute manual stranglings.

Dan Szymborski: Slow chat today! I think I answered like all the questions.

Dan Szymborski: I assume everyone’s exhausted from the omnichats. Szymborski is not match for the combined forces of the FanGraphs guys.

Comment From TR
I get to scrap a class next semester if I can think of a topic that is related to law (I go to a Canadian law school) in which I can write a 50 page paper. Obviously I need a broad topic, but I was hoping to write about baseball. Ideas?

Dan Szymborski: Why the UN Security Council should hinder Harold Reynolds somehow?

Comment From RotoLando
What do you see when you look out the window right now?

Dan Szymborski: I see some green leaves that are mostly turned red by the natural autumn process. It’s blowing gently. And I can only see it around a gray cat, who is sitting up on the window. Also, I can see in the distance the diagonal neighbor’s very large tree that I think they’d need a crane if they ever needed to tear it down. I also see a bluish-white sky, without any visible clouds. Bluish-white because the sun is very bright at that angle so it’s not all that blue.

Comment From Vance
Wouldn’t the UN love Harold Reynolds? I hear he really hates WAR.

Comment From mtsw
Rogers Center, Kauffman, Dodger Stadium: this seems like the post-season where people are starting to re-appreciate the pre-Camden modernist/symmetric parks, especially since a lot of the faux-retro, amusement-parky stuff that came after Camden is already aging kinda poorly?

Dan Szymborski: I still enjoy the faux-retro parks.

Comment From Jeb
Papelbon Hearthstone please?

Dan Szymborski: I already made a papelbon, lot me find it

:

Dan Szymborski: (we were talking about Reynolds)

:

:

Dan Szymborski: OK, this is a good point to end. Thanks for joining those of you that did! You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, and ZimSmash on Twitch (though not so much until after the season).

Dan Szymborski: I’ll probably do a few live projection streams on Twitch again this year – watch the sausage be made!