JABO: Jacob deGrom Goes Full Pedro
On Friday night, we witnessed a matchup of starting pitchers in the Dodgers vs. Mets series that only comes along a few times every generation. Clayton Kershaw — in the middle of a career that is already alongside some of the great starting pitchers in history — went head to head versus Jacob deGrom, a leading National League Cy Young Award candidate and ace of the Mets staff.
Perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised about the combined numbers the two starters produced: 13.2 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 3 ER (two of which scored after Kershaw was replaced), and a staggering 24 strikeouts. The tally of strikeouts, for those who weren’t watching, was historic: Friday night marked the first game in postseason history that two starters each had at least 11 strikeouts. And, while Kershaw was very good, deGrom was better, going a full seven innings while allowing only six base runners, no runs, and 13 Ks. “Better” is in fact a serious understatement, as deGrom scythed through one of the best offenses in baseball in what was one of the most dominant postseason debuts in recent history.
Earlier this season, when Pedro Martinez was about to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, I wondered: what current starting pitcher possesses the same arsenal of pitches (by velocity) as vintage Pedro? While many commenters simply wrote “no one” in response to the article (an understandable response, given Martinez’ dominance), the answer was actually deGrom: possessing a fastball, changeup, and curveball that clocked in at almost identical speeds to 1999 Martinez.
We don’t have any data on how Martinez’ pitches moved, so comparing the all-important “nastiness” factor between Pedro and deGrom is impossible. However, the conclusion is there: deGrom has the stuff to compare to Martinez, and that simple fact is remarkable. This section toward the end of that piece comparing the two pitchers sums up both the limitations and excitement of the exercise:
“There is more to pitching than velocity, and Martinez’ acumen in terms of pitch sequencing and knowledge of hitters was one of the biggest reasons why he was so incredibly successful. deGrom might not have the other intangible skills (yet) that the newest Hall of Fame member possessed at his peak, but we can all agree: 1999 Pedro velocity is a pretty great starting point.”
Jacob deGrom isn’t Pedro Martinez. Basically no one can make that claim, and deGrom has a long, long way to go before their careers can be compared. However, for a few brief hours on Friday night, deGrom was almost as dominant as peak Martinez, and he was dominant in very similar ways. The similarities between the two were already there, and in many ways, they were cemented in the first game of the NLDS. Let’s dive into deGrom’s start to explain further.
First, there was the electric fastball, which compares very well to Pedro’s. Sitting at an average of 97 mph, he quickly established the pitch on Friday, throwing 85% fastballs in the first inning alone. From then on, he relied on the fastball in all situations and counts as his main pitch, only deviating from that plan to mix in first-pitch sliders to 44% of the right-handed hitters he faced. In fact, most of the “trouble” he got into on Friday night was against righties, so he pitched backwards to those hitters later in the game, relying on offspeed pitches early in counts to keep them off-balance.
In the first few innings, he relentlessly went after righties early in the count with fastballs before getting weak contact or whiffs with sliders, as he did to A.J. Ellis in the second inning:
Owen Watson writes for FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. Follow him on Twitter @ohwatson.
his motion is uncannily similar to Pedro’s too (even if he has 5 inches of height on him…)
…they really aren’t that similar.
Was thinking the same thing, ryan.
Not similar.
They are both slightly built and have more hair than they should. But that’s like Buster Posey being a doctor because they both wear gloves. Don’t embarrass me in front of Buster Posey.
Holy crap the rise on that fastball.
To me the windup, arm angle and movement on the pitches seem different. Plus, isn’t “going full Pedro” 8 inning 15 ks? I know a Maddux is CG in 99 pitches or less. Isn’t going a Pedro at least 8 innings with 15 strikeouts? Plus Pedro in his prime wasn’t rrally throwing a slider much as he was dropping a nasty curveball from a lower arm angle. imo at least.
Using what Pedro threw in an all-star game when he looked to be maxing out is not representative of the kind of stuff he threw in actual starts. For one, he never threw his changeup at 87 mph; they ranged around 81-84, so definitely not the same velocity as Degrom’s. While Pedro could hit the high-90s, he did so very occasionally. His sitting velocity tended to be in the 92-95 range, so Degrom consistently throws quite a bit harder. Pedro’s curve was also in th 77-82 range, so not much like Degrom’s breaking ball in type or velocity.
Here’s a gif of Pedro’s unique curveball. http://giphy.com/gifs/3o85xHEBAaXyZLUwko
deGrom was throwing harder on Friday than he normally does, which is why his change was 87 mph and not the 86ish range it usually is. When I did that comparison between the two in July, I was comfortable with the speed comparison, and I’m still comfortable with it: the question was which pitcher is closest to peak Pedro in 1999, and that definition of Pedro throws in the mid to upper 90’s. At some point, we’re splitting hairs, and this is supposed to a fun exercise!
Not trying to be a killjoy. I just don’t see the resemblance between them. The velocity and movement on their pitches are different. Degrom’s change seems like a straight changeup while Pedro’s was like a screwball. Degrom’s fastball “jumps” upward like Pedro’s did but Pedro’s fastball had more horizontal run. Degrom consistently lives in the mid to upper 90s range while Pedro only touched that velocity. And their breaking pitches are just different.
I think there is a pitcher whose stuff is very reminiscent of Pedro’s and that’s Strasburg. The pitch mix of fastball, change and curve match up as well as the velocity bands, although Strasburg, like Degrom, throws consistently harder.
Strasburg throws a hard change up though. His changeup is about 7mph slower than his fastball, Pedro’s was 11mph slower.
Except peak Pedro was never even a mid to upper 90s guy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNUBtYS4pUg
The first half of that video is Pedro in 1999-2000, where he was 90-95, and occasionally hit 96 or 97. There’s also a good 5mph difference between their changeups. DeGrom averages 95mph where Pedro average probably around 92, and that’s more than just “splitting hairs”. Peak Pedro was able to hit what DeGrom throws on a regular basis (95-99).
That is if you believe today’s guns are measuring velocity the same way.