Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/22/14

Dan Szymborski: Afternoon, personages of baseballiary interests.

Comment From Los
I want your opinion on this more than anyone else since you actually do projections. I started asking this last week when the Royals were up 3-0 against the Orioles and it has picked up some steam. At what point would the Royals (specifically because of circumstances and resources) trade their current playoff position for Mike Trout’s contract? They were about 60% WS favorites then and 40% now. If not, what is the line where you would take the players?

Dan Szymborski: That was some quicik typing.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they would. Winning the World Series is just a really big deal among fans.

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, never really thought much about it. It’s actually a bit tougher for me to not make this trade than most, but I’m glad it’s not a realistic one to have to do.

Comment From Guest
Brawledge?

Dan Szymborski: Not doing them during the playoffs until FA opens – the chat populations *really* drop off during the end of season—start of FA period.

Dan Szymborski: Which is weird – playoff baseball si cool and everything, it’ sjust not super conducive to question-based chats.

Comment From Pale Hose
Have you run zips on Moustakas recently? Steamer is seeing big improvements and I’m curious if zips is seeing something similar.

Dan Szymborski: the prelim 2015 ZiPS for Moustakas is essentially Steamer with 6 or 7 fewer points of BA. Can’t do finals until the playoffs are over (I use playoff statistics)

Comment From Brian
Where is the FG Player of the Year Award? You should yell at Dave!

Dan Szymborski: Why go for the middleman?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even vote for that.

Comment From Pennsy
At what price would MLB need to buy off the Mets and Yankees to allow an expansion team in Brooklyn? An RSN contract structured similarly to the way MASN was set up?

Dan Szymborski: All the money. The NY teams would be as intransigent as possible.

Comment From Joe McMahon
Do the Yankees have the strongest top of the rotation IF (huge if, I know) they manage to stay healthy? Tanaka and Pineda both seem pretty dominant when they’re on the field.

Dan Szymborski: As you say, that’s a very big IF.

Dan Szymborski: If Ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a really miserly Christmas.

Comment From Guest
Are the Giants a modern day dynasty?

Dan Szymborski: I would say so.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
What do you think of Hardy’s contract extension?

Dan Szymborski: Me and ZIPS both agree that it was right on point.

Comment From JCA, CPA, CA
The ability not to hit Lester and Headley probably earned them how much more in Free agency? I can see more teams into Lester raising his cost because he doesn’t require a draft pick

Dan Szymborski: It’s a significant number. Draft picks, especially of the first round variety *are* extremely valuable.

Dan Szymborski: The upside’s just huge and there’s no guarantee, remember, that a player will be the difference between making and not making the playoffs (see Atlanta)

Comment From neal
who would your pick for executive of the year be? No obvious choices seem to spring to mind

Dan Szymborski: Mozeliak, Beane, Epstein. Not everything worked out (and the A”s ending was especially sad) but they all significantly advanced their teams short and long-term plans

Comment From Charles Knoblauch Sr.
i thought the royals Clash of Clans thing was hilarious. I totally get it too- my buds and I at college would be sitting around playing and no one was speaking. until finally one day i found it absurd and had to quit. Truth to the article/ comments from rusty Kuntz about Clashing ruining the locker room and affecting play?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never talked with anyone in the organization about Clash of Clans so I can’t say how accurate it is.

Dan Szymborski: HOnestly, I never get into those freemium games. Pay a few bucks and play the real thing, not a watered down variant.

Dan Szymborski: Though I guess TF2 and Hearthstone kinda both count as freemium, but they’re both quite robust games.

Comment From mtsw
How do you feel about fan consternation about “the best team” not winning the World Series? Isn’t the “best” team tautologically the one who completed the competition in first place? Why the obsession with rewarding team that is theroetically the strongest when that’s an experiment that will never be played out?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s a tautological necessity.

Dan Szymborski: It’s tautological that the team that wins the World Series is the World Series-winning team, but the definition of best does not necessarily preclude definitions that don’t require an offficial tournament.

Dan Szymborski: By your argument, the best investor in the world in any given week is the person that happens to win a state lottery that week. While one could argue that, there are perfectly reasonable alternatives to defining best.

Dan Szymborski: Whether the playoff format actually chooses the best team is a matter of whether the playoff format is designed to come to such a conclusion.. What it purports to be is completely irrelevant.

Dan Szymborski: The playoffs determine the champions of the playoffs. Any additional conclusion drawn from that is argued, not enshrined as fact.

Comment From Brian
Which player would you have to take away from the Giants to make KC the favorite going forward….A friend wants to know, Urgent?

Dan Szymborski: Posey

Dan Szymborski: Though down 1-0, there’s nobody that would actually make the Giants the underdog now. Like poker showdowns, every card dealt is significant to the odds.

Comment From neal
for the royals to be a true cinderella story, the magic has to run out at midnight, right

Dan Szymborski: Well, they’d have to all get kissed by Prince Charming too.

Comment From Guest
I’ve noticed that when a runner is on first(or any base really), after every pitch they touch the base and then retake their lead. Is there a rule dictating they must do this or is it just a habit?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe there’s any rule dictating this, though I’m not an encyclopedia of rules

Dan Szymborski: (Other than foul balls and the like of course)

Dan Szymborski: I’ve always been under the impression that it was a strategy issue – better safe than sorry

Comment From Brian
Will we ever see a 50+ YO MLB player?

Dan Szymborski: Well, we have before!

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure we’ll have one again. Probably a pitcher.

Comment From Brett
Would a good ballpark estimate comp for Rusney Castillo be Shane Victorino?

Dan Szymborski: Probalby a little aggressive if we’re talking peak Victorino.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had his top comps (at the same age) of Marlon Byrd, Chad Curtis, Mike Devereaux, Aaron Rowand

Dan Szymborski: I wrote more on it when the signing was made. http://insider.espn.go.com/…

Comment From Charles Knoblauch Sr.
http://bleacherreport.com/a…

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I’m aware of the instance, I just can’t personally comment on how big a deal it was.

Comment From STiVo
Mark Appel: Doing well in tiny sample size in Arizona right now. What say you about his prospect status?

Dan Szymborski: He’s still a top prospect – people panic way too quickly sometimes

Comment From Pennsy
Most fans’ teams are out, so they don’t care as much about the postseason. I’m an MLB fan, but I don’t remember the last WS game I watched. I really dislike the NFL, but I’ve invariably been invited to a viewing party for every Super Bowl. Of course, that’s only my experience…

Dan Szymborski: I like football.

Comment From Brian
What is the craziest projection ZiPS has ever spit out?

Dan Szymborski: A 1.100 batting average for Jose Molina. I had an extra 1 before his hit total accidentally.

Comment From mtsw
Do you think any of the SABR obsession with playoffs as “crapshoot” is related to huge overlap between SABR people and other strategy games like poker? Tempting to see anything we can’t measure and any variance in baseball as equivalent to randomness in card games, but the actual chance gets conflated with variance in player performance which seems like a totally different category to me.

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, card games aren’t truly random either. Nor are coin flips. They’re just amazingly difficult to predict by people.

Dan Szymborski: We tend to tread things that are pseudo-random as if they are random.

Dan Szymborski: If playoff performance (beyond certain evaluations of team quality of course) act like random, we should still treat them as such even if they’re not.

Comment From Joe
Any guesses on the contract Shields gets this winter? Is it any different than what you thought it would be at earlier points this season?

Dan Szymborski: Purely off the cuff, maybe 6/125? 5/105?

Comment From STiVo
I always thought Smoltz and Rikpken had a really good thing going in the TBS broadcast booth. You got the pitcher’s take from Smoltz and the hitter/fielder’s from Ripken; and they often asked each other questions during the broadcast to elicit interesting commentary. But Ron Darling and Ripken was an absolute snoozefest… I blame Darling! Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Ripken really needs to kind of be “led” into saying interesting things. Left to his own devices, he kinda sits there quietly and doesn’t contribute much of interest.

Comment From Dan
Rafael Montero for Ben Zobrist, who says no?

Dan Szymborski: The Mets probably should – they’re not at the spot to be doing a short-term fix with such a serious long-term risk.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
contract crowdsourcing has been the brightspots of my day recently. its wholly entertaining guessing at things i think i understand and in truth will probably be far off.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
What are the odds Schoop meaningfully improves his plate discipline over the next few years?

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda hard to really make *huge* improvements of this type (though some obviously possible of course)

Dan Szymborski: The good thing about Schoop though si that while he was never going to be Eddie Yost, his BB/K *was* worse than you’d expect from his minor league translations, so there’s still a good shot he shows some pimrpvement

Dan Szymborski: Wow, that’s some bad typing at the end.

Comment From JCA, CPA, CA
does robertson accept the QO?

Dan Szymborski: Assuming he does in fact get one, he’d be smart to do so.

Comment From mtsw
Yankees are probably a lost cause but wouldn’t the financially troubled Mets ownership find a say $250M lump sum payment in exchange for relinquishing their territorial rights pretty tempting? Not an unrealistic figure assuming a $1B+ sale for an expansion Brooklyn franchise.

Dan Szymborski: They *might* as you can tempt Wilpons for the easy score, I think.

Comment From JCA, CPA, CA
Do the dodgers roll out with Gordon at SS and Guerrero at 2nd next year?\

Dan Szymborski: Unless they make significant moves — which they very well could — it’s probably what they would have to do. Not ideal as Gordon’s really stretched at SS.

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible the Dodgers use Gordon as part of a big trade.

Comment From Brian
Carassco for one of the Cubs SS?

Dan Szymborski: Carrasco had a really nice run this year, but that’s a bit rich for me.

Comment From Guest
You been gettin down on Borderlands the pre sequel? its pretty awesome

Dan Szymborski: I’m enjoying it. It really *is* essentially a large DLC, but it’s still fun.

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
How did your ZiPS bets pay off this year? Humor a guy who doesn’t get ESPNInsider.

Dan Szymborski: Made money, but nothing as good as $200 on Scherzer to win the Cy like in 2013.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t actually do the prop bet piece this year (there was a bunch of other stuff we were doing and it kinda fell to the side)

Comment From mtsw
Logically, wouldn’t draft picks be overvalued by front offices in general since every front office thinks they’re above average at drafting even though half of them must be wrong?

Dan Szymborski: Front offices also think they’re above average at evaluating major league talent.

Comment From Pennsy
Wait, Royals players were playing too much Clash of Clans? Who was the guy that missed a playoffs start because he hurt himself playing too much Guitar Hero?

Dan Szymborski: Zumaya

Comment From Phil
What could the O’s reasonably get for Wieters or Davis, one of whom they must trade before the end of their contract next year? I would like to see a #1 level starter, but it might require Wieters to show his arm strength first and Davis is coming off a pretty bad season (still good power).

Dan Szymborski: You’re not getting an ace starter for one year of either. Even a good Wieters.

Comment From Pennsy
Team Fortress 2 may be free now but it’s not near as playable a game as when you paid to get it.

Dan Szymborski: I still enjoy it.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
next expansion team (non brooklyn answer please)- go!

Dan Szymborski: I think the next expansion is very far off, but I can see a Carolina team.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
More likely to disappoint in 2015: Royals or Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: Royals I think

Comment From Brian
Andrew W.K. is a classically trained Pianist……WTF

Dan Szymborski: He likes to Practice Hard

Dan Szymborski: I really hated Party Hard. One year of Madden, that was *always* the first song to be played.

Dan Szymborski: But that was also the year that had the hilarious madden rap

Dan Szymborski: “Yo ya gotta switch up your offensive patterns”

Dan Szymborski: https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Dan Szymborski: “Unravel the world of Madden 2002 you players gotta switch up your offensive patterns”

Comment From Mooking for Love
This burrito I made is really good. I’m proud of myself.

Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter
how can a dynasty be defined as a team with 86 losses last year and a *potnetial* WS win this year? and dynasty to me is the Spurs. Always in the Western finals

Dan Szymborski: Nature of baseball. G

Comment From Guest
Would you trade d’Arnaud for Carlos Gonzalez?

Dan Szymborski: For some teams I would.

Dan Szymborski: Competitive.

Dan Szymborski: Teams

Comment From Brian
Is there a place on earth with a more perfect climate than Denver?

Dan Szymborski: Probably too much snow for perfection.

Comment From Nads
If the playoffs count towards ZiPS, does the ASG as well?

Dan Szymborski: The ASG is a bizarre exhibition. The playoffs are serious, competitive games.

Comment From Marco
Hunter Pence seems like a really intense dude.

Comment From Brian
Have you played Destiny?

Dan Szymborski: No. I have no desire to play a console FPS.

Comment From Brian
Best N64 game?

Dan Szymborski: Goldeneye.

Comment From Brian
Thoughts on Prince’s new alblum?

Dan Szymborski: Prince isn’t really my thing.

Comment From Andrew
The Astros could significantly improve on 2014’s record by strengthening 3B and/or LF (two positions of extreme weakness). Who should they target? Anyone available along the lines of Fowler (who they added last year)? Headley?

Dan Szymborski: Headley would be fun – I think he ends up being one of the best contracts.

Comment From Joe McMahon
With the Angels, A’s and Mariners allllikely being extremely competitive next year and the Rangers and Astros probably improving quite a bit (especially the Rangers as they get healthy again), do you think the AL West will be a 4-5 team dogfight next season and how do you expect it to turn out?

Dan Szymborski: Astros will continue to improve, but they still would need a big step forward to compete in the division in 2015. It should be an exciting race though

Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Chances Posey makes the hall of fame, both if he wins another WS and if he doesn’t

Dan Szymborski: Should be pretty good though he hasn’t passed the bus test.

Dan Szymborski: Ignoring, of course, that the BBWAA voting is comically incompetent.

Comment From RSquared
Stage looked too big for the Royals last night. While MadBum and the offense had something to do with it, Royals were unable to focus on the moment and start scratching away, as in the third.

Comment From Guest
Could you explain how coin flips are not random? Everything stat I’ve ever seen suggests that if you flip a quarter one millions times, about 50.000001% of the time it will come up heads because it is very slightly weighted towards that side.

Dan Szymborski: Coin flips are definable results of force applied and various physical factors.

Dan Szymborski: Machines that flip the coin the same way each team can and have been built.

Dan Szymborski: It’s pseudo-random – we dont’ have fine enough motor control to consistently hold our hands in the same position, launch our thumbs in the same angular direction with the same force, etc.

Dan Szymborski: We treat it as if it were random when we’re flipping because it *acts* as if it were random process. But it’s really not.

Comment From Brett
A 4-year/$60 mil deal for James Shields this winter would be good, no? Or would it be optimal but he’d get more because of inflation?

Dan Szymborski: There is approximately zero chance that he gets 4/60.

Dan Szymborski: As in only 4/60

Comment From Brian
would you rather have Scherzer for 8/150 or Shields for 5/85?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Shields in this scenario.

Comment From Jeff
Ideal/semi-realistic Dan Duquette offseason: offer Cruz the QO & get the draft pick, offer Markakis 3 years/$27 mil & hope Phillies/Mets/Mariners overpay him, look for some cheap OBP at the corner outfield spots, hope for great rehabs from Manny, Bundy, Harvey & Wieters and be open to trading any of the 4 pitchers who started games for you in the ALCS?

Dan Szymborski: That’s not an unrealistic scenario.

Comment From neal
masterson to the pirates on a one-year deal? seems so obvious…

Dan Szymborski: He would be an excellent fit there.

Comment From Player Development Nerd
Leaving aside programming bugs, what’s the worst ZIPs projection you’ve seen compared with actual performance? And what is a more typical standard error for some of your estimates?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I dont’ actually know what the worst ZiPS projection ever was.

Dan Szymborski: Betances this year would be a candidate, I think.

Comment From jon
As a Mets fan, I can tell you Darling is a great broadcaster. But on national TV he has no chemistry with anyone and just keeps blurting out very obvious things over-enthusiastically to over-compensate.

Comment From mtsw
Assume Schoop DOESN’T improve his hitting significantly. Is he an everyday 2B in MLB just for his defense or does he need to be a better hitter to stick in lineups?

Dan Szymborski: I think he could be, but certainly not a franchise one. a 280/400 2B that can play some defense has positive value, though not a player you get too wedded to

Comment From EP
Steamer really likes the Royals and PECOTA likes the Giants just as much. What accounts for the difference, and where does ZiPS stand?

Dan Szymborski: It was very close to a coin flip before last night’s game (in fact, the closest series ZIPS has ever forecast)

Comment From Grant
Ever drank Bailey’s from a shoe?

Dan Szymborski: Cant’ say that I have

Comment From Mooking for Love
Forget Brooklyn, why not put a new franchise in say, oh, I dunno… my apartment? It’d be really convenient for like 3 people.

Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Man, the team that pays BGJS over $100 mil is going to regret that instantly

Comment From Grant
You sound smarter than normal today.

Dan Szymborski: Damning with faint praise.

Comment From Brett
Are you gonna give Destiny a shot?

Dan Szymborski: If it comes out on the PC and people are still playing it, I may

Comment From Grant
I decided to pull an all-nighter last night, and this morning one of the shocks fell off my car. Not a question, that’s just what’s going on with me.

Comment From mtsw
Crazy to me as an Orioles fan that people think Davis will get a good return in an offseason trade. I think the Orioles would seriously consider non-tendering him if they were forced to keep him (and didn’t have the option to dump his contract for a Jemile Weeks type like they did with Jim Johnson last year).

Comment From Scrapper
Considering any tweaks to ZIPS this offseason (or is it pretty much a well-oiled machine at this point)?

Dan Szymborski: Just some small things – no big additions in this year’s build. Still things that are in builds for 1 or 2 years out that I’m still testing.

Dan Szymborski: I’m very careful about implementing new things – I want to make good and sure they have value.

Comment From Joe
No desire to play a console FPS, Goldeneye best N64 game. What?

Dan Szymborski: The odd N64 controller shape worked.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t play a lot of FPS at the time, so it wasn’t hard.

Comment From Vslyke
DONT DISS MONCH. THAT SONG GOT ME HYPED UP EVERYTIME I PLAYED THAT GAME

Comment From Vslyke
Also, love the chats!

Comment From mtsw
Why hasn’t anyone tried to integrate sports management sims video games with sports sims? Wouldn’t a version of MLB The Show that had OOTP’s depth in its franchise mode be amazing?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a lot of moving parts. It’s hard enough just doing half of that right.

Comment From Que?
Various prognosticators (maybe including some at Fangraphs?) are pegging David Robertson at getting a 4/$50-like deal in FA, and you’re suggesting he take a 1/$15 QO? Why is that?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s high.

Dan Szymborski: And a lot of teams that may overpay for a closer have an overpaid one already under contract

Comment From Pointless Questions
Does Brian Roberts get inducted into the Orioles Hall of Fame?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so. The O’s Hall of Fame doesn’t have super-high induction standards, Lee May and Mike Bordick are both in.

Comment From Scrapper
Is there a prospect/young player with a wider spectrum of potential outcomes than Javier Baez? Seems like his upside is that of an MVP but the downside is that he strikes out 40% of the time and can’t even hold a major league job because of the strikeouts.

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers.

Comment From Guest
Super Smash Brothers love! CLOWN HAMMER PIKACHU! DO IT NOW!

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have a wii U

Comment From Phil
RE: Wieters and Davis… “You’re not getting an ace starter for one year of either. Even a good Wieters.” What about the Cespedes/Lester trade? That’s a pretty good comp, no?

Dan Szymborski: You may get *1* year of an ace – i wasn’t thinking just of a rental.

Comment From Guest
The only bad part about Goldeneye was that respawn and drop points were static. Nothing worse than respawning in a grenade explosion or the ass standing by the body armor all game.

Dan Szymborski: We would have prox mine battles in which people would do 5 times in a row before respawning safely

Comment From Guest
Dan Szymborski:
No. I have no desire to play a console FPS.
12:47

Comment From Brian
Best N64 game?
12:47

Dan Szymborski:
Goldeneye.

Dan Szymborski: We’;re talking 2014. Goldeneye was a great play with your friends game.

Dan Szymborski: We would get a few cases of beer and gamble and play Goldeney all weekend.

Dan Szymborski: There was a lot of game gambling in my early 20s.

Dan Szymborski: We had an intense Monopoly variant that we played with real money.

Dan Szymborski: (Split up the bank before the game, divide the currency by 10, winner keeps the money and whatever’s left in the bank is resplit)

Dan Szymborski: That was fun – we had very liberal trade rules. You could sell options, pre-arrange rent discounts, purchase agreements to not buy a property if landing on a space.

Comment From mtsw
More likely: expansion team in NYC or expansion team in non US/Canadian city?

Dan Szymborski: NYC

Comment From zurzles
no way in the world roberts doesn’t get in the O’s HOF. his chances are 100%. not 99.9%. 100%.

Comment From Guest
cinci has 297000 people. how do they have a baseball team

Dan Szymborski: Well, the metro area is bigger.

Dan Szymborski: But it is one of the smaller markets.

Comment From mtsw
Monopoly with real money is such an obvious and brilliant idea I’m only hearing about it now.

Dan Szymborski: Dividing by a number is what it makes it generally practical.

Dan Szymborski: Dividing by $10 and Monopoly has a total of $1514, which is a plausible amount for 3-6 people to be betting.

Dan Szymborski: Though if you’re higher stakes than my group, you could go for thet full $15,140

Comment From mtsw
I think the future people of Baltimore will be very comfortable pretending that Brian Roberts on the Yankees never happened the same way nobody remembers Johnny Unitas on the Chargers.

Comment From Guest
Better multiplayer: Goldeneye or Perfect Dark?

Dan Szymborski: Goldeneye. Though there was lots of fun with Perfect Dark.

Comment From Guest
What was the biggest Monopoly payday that you remember?

Dan Szymborski: In a game of 6, I once ended up wtih $1100

Dan Szymborski: A friend of mine did even better.

Comment From mtsw
Wouldn’t real-money monopoly be more interesting if you played for a set number of turns rather than until all players but one go bust? Changes the strategy a lot if you have an incentive to mitigate losses rather than chase a win.

Dan Szymborski: We did both time and bust.

Comment From The Dave Szymborski Experience featuring Alcohol
So your still playing TF2 and hearthstone then? What are your ids again?

Dan Szymborski: AUGGGH THE YOUR

Dan Szymborski: DSzymborski on Steam, Zim 1236 on battle.net

Comment From Cashmere Taco
1. MarioKart 2. Super Smash 3. Mario Tennis Distant 4th. Goldeneye (mainly cause I’m terrible at it)

Comment From neal
cincy probably has a baseball team because they didn’t consider market size 130 years ago, just a thought

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to end the chat for another week. Thanks for joining me on this very special Wednesday edition.

Dan Szymborski: OK, not actually special, just MOnday chat on a different day.

Comment From mtsw
Did you ever play Timesplitters 2? Same developers as Goldeneye/PD but more refined gameplay and balanced multiplayer. You could play with remote mines that stuck to players which was super fun.

Dan Szymborski: I never did.

Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find my writing at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and @DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: Now, let’s hope that the next WS games are more interesting than last night’s snoozer.