Why Didn’t Nori Aoki Bunt?

When Nori Aoki came to the plate with runners on second and third with one out in the third inning against Madison Bumgarner, fans on Twitter called out for the slap-hitting outfielder to bunt. Instead he struck out and the rally fizzled. With the game over and the Royals offense stymied but for one Salvy Perez home run, the question remains: should Aoki have laid one down, a safety squeeze or something similar from the Royals vast small ball playbook?

Aoki has 70 “official” bunt attempts over his three-year career, reaching safely more than 30% of the time. Just 20% of those attempts came against left-handed pitchers, as Bumgarner is. Among those attempts, six could be classified as squeezes and four successfully plated runners, according to the Baseball Reference Play Index.

It’s a low-percentage play, all things considered. But Nori Aoki versus Madison Bumgarner is a low percentage play in relative terms. Playing for one run so early in the game is a bit much, even for the Royals, especially in a situation offering a run expectancy of 1.2 runs. It’s a high floor/low ceiling play when jumping on a struggling Bumgarner was probably the right choice.

No Royals scored, so looking back with hindsight makes the decision look bad automatically. Kansas City blazed their trail to the World Series by making questionable decisions and “putting pressure on the defense.” With a strong bunter and an ace still looking for his groove on the mound, the decision is never an easy one. Consider some of the possible outcomes should Aoki have squared to bunt in the fateful third inning.

Best case scenario – everybody’s safe

In this alternate universe, Aoki gets down a great bunt and Infante dashes home to score. Now the Royals have runners at first and third with one out for their number three hitter. This raises the Royals probability of winning by 8% to nearly 40%, which is nice. Again we must the question of the likelihood of this outcome. Can we say with confidence that Aoki gets this job done 25% of the time? 20% 15% Judging by the actions on the field, Ned Yost and Aoki himself agree that it was a longshot.

Acceptable outcome – Aoki out at first, Infante scores

This is where the run expectancy tables and the realities of Royals life divert. Cashing the runner but losing an out in the process drops the Royals odds of winning slightly (1.2%.) But they’re on the board! Kansas City hardly operates with one eye on the game chart. They scored two runs in their last playoff game while attempting to give up an out. They still have a chance to score with a runner on third and Cain coming to the plate.

One cannot discount the value of a great pitcher on the ropes, which is where the Giants found Bumgarner through the first two innings on Tuesday night. There was no lack of hard contact in the first inning and Mike Moustakas just hammered a double to the right field corner to produce this run scoring opportunity. Antithetical to The Royals Way as it may seem, playing for the big inning here is a great idea, truth be told. Giving a struggling pitcher a free out is, in a word, inadvisable.

Unacceptable outcome – runner cut down at the plate, runners on the corners

With a good fielding pitcher and good pitching pitcher on the mound, this is an entirely possible outcome – Aoki manages to bunt the ball directly to Bumgarner and Infante is either dead to rights at the plate or caught in no man’s land. Such poor execution lowers the Royals win expectancy by 9% as well as giving a free out to the opposition in addition to taking the air out of Kaufman Stadium. It gets you coming and going, in other words.

Below is Madison Bumgarner’s spray chart against left-handed batters

Source: FanGraphs

There are seven bunts mixed in there, one from Aoki himself in 2012! (He was thrown out by Joaquin Arias.) Bumgarner himself successfully field four of them. Does that mean anything? He’s acquitted himself as a reasonable enough fielder to this point of his career, so the chances that he competently pounces on a bunt  remains high. This is not helping our cause (bunt-induced chaos is our cause here.)

Worst case scenario – inning-ending double play

Begin the rending of garments and the gnashing of teeth! Not only because the Royals are out of the inning, but because the Yost rolling on twitter and elsewhere would hit a fever pitch and most of baseball humanity gets wiped out in its wake. Some kind of line drive bunt or pop up that hangs the runner on third out to dry. It lowers the Royals win probability by 14% as well as signalling the death of hope across the vast Midwest. This is not an acceptable outcome. No way, no how. It isn’t likely but the chance everything goes to pot lurks in the back of even the most bunt-addled mind.

This isn’t who the Royals really are, but it is how they’re perceived after a magical run through the American League. This remains a team that loads the top of their order with Alcides Escobar, Nori Aoki and Lorenzo Cain. It’s a team that sac bunted with their number three hitter in the first inning just six days ago. These players didn’t become prolific offensive contributors overnight, they are who they are.

Bunts catch a lot of scorn but, if anything, this represents an opportunity for a “good” bunt, not just moving runners up but a genuine attempt to score and perhaps register a hit. But it is never so simple. Not with Ned Yost’s Royals and not when we consider the myriad options at play. Swinging away was likely the best play but sometimes you need to dance with the one who brought you.