Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/27/14
11:57 |
: OK Let’s do this. DAAAAAN SZYMBOOOOORSKI!
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11:57 |
: At least I have chicken.
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11:57 |
Are there any historical analogues to a prospect of Tavares’s potential tragically passing away so young? The only thing that comes to mind is Len Bias (wrong sport though, obviously). |
11:58 |
: In baseball, I can’t think of any. Even Hubbs got a couple seasons in.
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11:59 |
Maybe Conigliaro? I know he didn’t pass away, but he was (effectively) removed from the game |
11:59 |
: Yeah, but lots of injuries happen.
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11:59 |
What was your reaction to finding out about Taveras? I couldnt believe it at first. |
11:59 |
: Utter shock.
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11:59 |
: Couldn’t even follow the game all that well. Just didn’t care.
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11:59 |
Gun to your head: ___________ is equal to ___________ |
12:00 |
: A, A. Because reasons. That reason being the reflexive property of equality.
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12:01 |
Is Joe Panik pretty much Scooter Gennett without the dramatic platoon split moving forward, or is his ceiling higher than that? |
12:01 |
: A little higher, but not alarmingly so. Panik’s a solid player in all likelihood.
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12:01 |
before we get in too deep here can i just get the sad anger out of the way: fuck everything, this is the worst |
12:01 |
: I know, it’s just absolutely terrible.
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12:02 |
: I mean it’s *always* a tragedy, but on some level it’s even worse because Taveras was right on the brink of being able to show what he could do, to make a name for himself in history.
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12:02 |
: Take the Munson situation. Absolutely horrific. But *still* Munson at least got to spend a decade doing what his talent led him to do and making a name himself. Taveras will always be defined by the tragedy, not by his career up to that point, so it’s just that extra little bit more horrid.
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12:03 |
Who do you like best on a bounce back contract – Billingsley, Floyd, Brett Anderson |
12:04 |
: Probably Anderson. Though I have little faith in the him (or any of the 3) to not be injured.
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12:04 |
What’s the cap for a hypothetical G7 outing for Bumgarner after throwing 117 pitches last night? |
12:05 |
: He may come out of the bullpen in a pinch, but he’s not going to throw all that much. If it’s a close game, they’ll be shuffling in enough pitchers that he’ll only be in for a few batters at most. And in a blowout, no need for him.
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12:06 |
: Only exception is a crazy extra innings game, but I still dont’ think they ride him in that situation
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12:06 |
Will Chris Carter hit for enough power to make up for his Ks and defensive liabilities? |
12:06 |
: Enough to make him usable and a decent starter, but not enough to make him a huge plus that you lock up for a decade.
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12:06 |
Is it too early to start thinking about potential replacements for Taveras in RF? If not, do you think St. Louis stays internal with Grichuk or do they go out of the organization? |
12:07 |
: It is probably. Less than 24 hours after all. Realistically, Grichuk gets a shot in the spring (I though that the Cards were foolishly going to give Grichuk too many ABs over Taveras anyway before last night)
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12:07 |
I get really sad when I see this photo of Taveras: http://i.imgur.com/0NYnv7F.jpg |
12:07 |
![]() we need this |
12:07 |
: It is, just frigging awful.
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12:09 |
TIL that Leeroy Jenkins has a Wikipeida page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wik… |
12:10 |
Would a trade sending Howie Kendrick to the Nats in exchange for young pitching make sense? |
12:10 |
: I don’t think they do that.
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12:11 |
If the O’s decide to trade one of their 6 mlb starters, which would be the best to trade (most overvalued) and what type of player would be a reasonable return? |
12:11 |
: I’m not sure any of the O’s starters would really be overvalued. I’d most be willing to move Norris I think unless someone does a crazy overpay for Tillman or something. You’ll get a solid prospect, but not a crazy good one
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12:13 |
Why does Hunter Pence defy all rational thinking in terms of his plate approach? Can you think of anyone else that looked so odd doing so good? |
12:13 |
: Even when Tony Batista played well, he looked absolutely terrible at the plate.
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12:14 |
: And Kevin Youkilis always stands at the plate like there’s a poop he’s desperately trying to hold in.
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12:14 |
Matt Adams had a BABIP of .364 vs. RHP and .238 vs. LHP this year. Do split BABIPs like that regress? |
12:14 |
: Typically yes.
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12:14 |
the fact that he had a rough year makes this all the more sad to me, like his legacy is just 80 so-so substitution appearances and ML/MiL yo-yoing |
12:15 |
Is Guthrie vs Hudson the least interesting game 7 WS matchup in history? |
12:15 |
: It does sound very uninspiring on paper, especially since Hudson’s pitched much worse since the summer starter.
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12:15 |
: And even when Guthrie’s pitching well, it’s still Jeremy Guthrie pitching.
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12:16 |
: Even Livan vs. Lackey was a more exciting matchup on paper.
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12:18 |
: Trying to think who else.
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12:18 |
: Wright vs. Leiter?
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12:19 |
True or False, switch Bochy and Yost before game 1 and the series is still 3-2 Giants today? |
12:19 |
: Probably.
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12:19 |
Better name: Joe Panik or Scooter Gennett? |
12:19 |
: Panik better for headlines, while Scooter has that 1950s charm.
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12:19 |
Is trading Kimbrel the best way for the Braves to turn around their club? |
12:19 |
: It’s definitely something they should consider while they won’t.
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12:19 |
Do you think La Stella ever gets to the level Panik is at right now? Pains this Braves fan to see Panik be everything we expected from La Stella. |
12:20 |
: I think Panik will be a little better. Though La Stella could be very Luis Alicea-y which is perfectly acceptable
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12:20 |
If you were Bochy, and you had an off day today, would you have been more willing to use your bullpen so as to maximize the usage of Bumgarner in a potential game 7? Would you rather have a lot in Game 5 and almost nothing in Game 7, or would you rather it be split more evenly? |
12:20 |
: I wouldn’t manage around Bumgarner usage in game 7
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12:20 |
Here’s a little hint: If you have to ask “is it too early?”, it’s too early. |
12:20 |
did adam dunn ruin baseball? |
12:20 |
: No
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12:21 |
Does Tavares’s family get any compensation from MLB or the Cardinals? Do they pay out the rest of his contract? |
12:21 |
: He wouldn’t be under contract, so there would be nothing there to be paid off (he’d be tendered a contract sometime after the season)
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12:22 |
: But if I’m not mistaken, members of the union have a standard life insurance benefit of 500K or something and another million or so if the death is considered accidental
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12:22 |
: I’m not positive on the exact figures.
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12:22 |
did you see the sunday notes with the theoretical trade of Votto to the sox for Barnes, Nava and Naploli>? is that even on the horizon of legitimate? I have a hard time seeing how that could be realistic |
12:22 |
: That seems a bit rosterbating.
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12:22 |
what’s the deal with Bill James? I feel like I know what most sabermetricians get up to, but that guy is something of an enigma. also I bought one of his books and it’s a snooze. |
12:24 |
: His classic stuff is necessary, but he’s kind of been out of the orbit of the analyst community since the late 80s and he’s always going to have a conflict of interest while he works for Red Sox
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12:24 |
Does a two year extension get Rollins to waive his NTC and is he worth it? |
12:24 |
: Maybe and no.
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12:24 |
: A two year extension makes it nearly purposeless to want to acquire Rollins via trade.
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12:25 |
: At 1/11, he’s an interesting pickup. At 3/31 or something, he’s not.
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12:25 |
What’s your take on the Red Soxs and Cespedes. Seems like it would drive his trade value down if he cant get along with his coaches. |
12:25 |
: Teams are inevitably crappy at keeping lids on things.
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12:25 |
Kinda messed up question but do the Cards get a comp pick for OT? |
12:26 |
: Why would they? Perhaps there’s a rarely invoked rule I’m unaware of.
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12:26 |
To me, I think the O’d should try to move Tillman. He’s the only one with (generally undeserved) “ace” buzz, and maybe you get some team to overpay on that. |
12:26 |
: It really depends on what the offers actually are. It’s hard to speculate on future rumors.
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12:26 |
Where does Sandoval end up? Assume he leaves SF |
12:26 |
: I actually think he returns to SF.
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12:27 |
: I could totally see him in Boston or New York though.
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12:27 |
remember the time they traded Arrieta+ for Feldman |
12:27 |
: Cubs have a weird record at getting play out of ex-O’s.
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12:27 |
: Remember they got a lot out of Jason hammel this year and even Wada was solid
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12:27 |
If the O’s wanted to trade a starter, could they package one of their starters in exchange for dumping Ubaldo’s bad contract? Would free up money to make a run at a starter in FA. |
12:28 |
: Eh, I think it’s selling low. JImenez money isn’t really crippling and there’s enough of a shot of them getting some value out of him that I wouldn’t send away another starter just to get rid of him
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12:28 |
: ANy starter they send, after all, is going to have to be replaced less efficiently after all
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12:30 |
: I mean yeah, you could give someone Bud Norris’s last arbitration year to get someone to take Jimenez. But then you have to use that money to replace Norris anyway and in FA it’s going to be more expensive than Norris’s arb contract
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12:30 |
How do you see the Yankees rotation working out next season? Would something like Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, McCarthy, Greene with Huff, Phelps and Nova as depth or do you think they would need a second FA signing (along with McCarthy or an equivalent 4th starter) |
12:30 |
: I think it’s very difficult to speculate right before the winter.
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12:31 |
: I mean yeah, right now without moves, you’ve got Tanaka, Sabathia, Pineda, Green, Phelps, Nova, but it’s unlikely that the Yankees have the same kind of FA kabuki as last year
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12:31 |
Obviously this terrible tragedy JUST happened, but does MLB have any contingency plan for something as rare as this? For instance, will the Cards get an extra draft pick or something? Clearly the cost of a life is priceless and I don’t mean to downplay that side of it at all, but never the less life goes on and the cards have an enormous talent gap to fill |
12:32 |
: Viewed *only in the context of a transaction*, it’s essentially a horrific career-ending injury. Again, *only in the context of a transaction*
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12:32 |
: But again, maybe there’s a rule that I’m unaware of because we never see it
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12:32 |
Fun fact: I pound power bars 90 minutes before game time and don’t take bathroom breaks until the last pitch is thrown. Learned in middle school that this helped me see balls and strikes ten times better. And they say pitch recognition can’t be learned… |
12:33 |
Any thoughts on the very strange double-switch bringing Jayson Nix (.120 BA!) up to bat in the World Series? |
12:33 |
: I don’t think Yost understands, well, things.
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12:34 |
People always say that players never get a salary cut in arbitration. Is this an exageration? If an arbitrator thought C. Davis was worth about $10 mil after his ’13 season, how could he give him a raise after ’14? More to the point, why not a pretty significant cut? The arbitrator is independent, no? |
12:34 |
: For one, there’s a maximum 20% cut.
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12:35 |
: (Unless a previous arbitrator ruled a 50% increase the year before)
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12:35 |
: And two, while Davis had a bad year, given that salaries tend to go up, the class Davis will be compared to will have also seen their salaries go up
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12:35 |
: So a significant pay cut is unlikely
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12:36 |
: You guys keep wanting to talk about Adenhart – I think it’s a little gauche if we start ranking tragedies.
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12:37 |
: Though just for the sake of the comparison, I don’t think it works quite as well – I think Taveras is the best prospect that this has happened to.
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12:37 |
I stopped following Steamer600 when I read that Jamie Moyer projected for 2.5 WAR (200 innings) in his age 52 season. I’m sure he could pitch 200 innings, but… |
12:37 |
: I hadn’t seen that. Seems optimistic.
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12:37 |
Bumgarner is a top __ SP now in all baseball. pls fill in |
12:37 |
: 20
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12:37 |
: Shoot, I mean farts.
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12:37 |
Better name than panik/scooter: Deik Scram a former tigers farm hand |
12:37 |
With Bumbgarner’s early career, Schilling like postseason performance, can we look forward to him arbitrarily and insanely not making the hall of fame at any point? |
12:38 |
: That’s a *long* way off. Let’s not forget that Bumgarner still doesn’t have any seasons that compare to Schilling’s extended peak.
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12:39 |
: Schilling’s very arguably in the top 30 without a single postseason appearance.
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12:39 |
Is Tim Hudson a Hall of Famer? |
12:39 |
: Should be considered as a borderline candidate. Won’t be at all, because the BBWAA voting is embarrassingly bad.
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12:40 |
: Mussina and Schilling are Top 30 pitchers in *history* and both fell short of getting even half the votes needed. Brown got one-and-doned.
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12:41 |
: I can’t emphasize how awful the voting is now.
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12:41 |
: When it comes down to it, a group in which 70% of people don’t think Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer is a chosen group that is unqualified to be making an evaluation of Curt Schilling’s Hall of Fame status.
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12:42 |
: There are just too many non-expert voters in there for the good voters to have an impact.
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12:42 |
: It’s like having reporters of economic news voting on the Nobel Prize for Economics. A lot of them may be experts on the subject, but more won’t.
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12:43 |
kind of random, but do you think Bobby Grich deserves to be in the HOF? I just saw that he had almost 70 career WAR. |
12:43 |
: Yes
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12:43 |
what historical comps are there for brandom mccarthy having thrown 200 innings in a season for the first time at the age of 31? |
12:43 |
: It’ shappened before. Rick Reed. Dazzy Vance
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12:44 |
will the next baseball movie about a GM focus on Dayton Moore? |
12:44 |
: No
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12:44 |
Odds that Cespedes is with the Sox on opening day? |
12:44 |
: 50/50. I won’t say it’s a done deal yet – people jump to obvious conclusions too quickly.
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12:44 |
What are the odds KC wins the next two games? |
12:44 |
: 1 in 4 or so – the teams are closely matched.
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12:44 |
Re: Cespedes…I don’t recall anything like this coming out of Oakland, do you? ie, is it another Puig type situation or does he just not like Boston? |
12:44 |
: Until there’s more, I think the story is overblown.
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12:44 |
A week before Dan Duquette traded Jemile Weeks, he struggled to remember Weeks’ name in a TV interview. Is this some sort of weird mind game he was using to influence Weeks’ trade value or was DD just having a brain fart? |
12:44 |
: Sometimes you get mind farts.
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12:45 |
: I once wrote a piece that mentioned Andres Galarraga’s near perfect game.
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12:46 |
: Do one of those sporcle baseball challenges and your mind will freeze at the dumbest places.
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12:47 |
: I was doing one of those opening day lineup challneges a few weeks ago and I just could not remember Benito Santiago’s stint with the Giants.
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12:47 |
I feel like an ass for asking this, but if a player under contract were to pass away, would the team still have to pay the remainder of the contract? |
12:48 |
: In a purely technical sense, the deceased player would be in violation of the contract by not showing up.
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12:48 |
: Though teams have better pr sense than that in most situations.
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12:48 |
Odds that Maddon signs on to coach the Cubs? Cubs fans should be elated if it happens, no? |
12:48 |
: Call it a coin flip. It’s tough to axe a guy after 1 season managing when he didn’t really do anything deserving of a trip to madame guillotine.
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12:48 |
Assuming it goes to Game 7, how many innings do you see Guthrie/Hudson going? |
12:48 |
: 6 at most
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12:49 |
Does the Braves’ hiring of Seitzer as a more contact-oriented hitting coach have any tangible impact? Does ZiPS account for those types of things? |
12:49 |
: No, that kind of thing is very unknowable. Consider it something that isn’t luck but we treat as luck.
|
12:49 |
As a Yankee fan, I do NOT want them signing the Panda to a long-term contract. He doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who will age well. |
12:49 |
: Depends how long the deal is.
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12:49 |
How much better would the Cubs be if they sign Maddon ? |
12:50 |
: Hard to put an exact figure on them. It’ll help the team, but it’s not some dramatic turnaround type thing
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12:50 |
Which widely reviled player is more likely to be looked back on as misunderstood good guy by future generations: Bonds or A-Rod? |
12:50 |
: Bonds, I think.
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12:50 |
: A-Rod will suffer from actually being suspended and testing positive.
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12:51 |
: And while Bonds was surly to the media at times, A-Rod’s awkwardness is likely to be remembered (and he seems like a guy who will keep on popping up awkwardly after his career)
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12:51 |
Who will have the better next 3 years: Harper or Rendon? |
12:51 |
: Still Harper
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12:51 |
Do you care at all about the Gold Gloves? If so, name a player that you would like to see rewarded for his defensive excellence. |
12:51 |
: No particularly. They’ve improved the process, but the majority is still determined by a really lazy voting process.
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12:52 |
Name a team that should be particularly aggressive in the offseason. |
12:52 |
: Yankees. The house is falling apart – they can’t start thinking about maybe making an appointment with the termite guy at some point.
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12:53 |
re: tavares draft http://en.wikipedia.org/wik… |
12:53 |
: That’s not really the situation. That’s for situations in which a team doesn’t even have a roster, not just losing a guy.
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12:53 |
: I think baseball even has a specific number of players that need to die for it to trigger anything
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12:54 |
what do you make of the MAddon situation? Dodgers? |
12:54 |
: There are a lot of teams denying interest who should have been very interested
|
12:54 |
: Like the Mets. Terry Collins is awful.
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12:54 |
why is it always taco tuesday? it’s not like every other night of the week has an alliterative special, nor that obvious alliterative specials are ubiquitous (e.g. “wing wednesday”). Yet, taco tuesday reigns supreme. Thoughts? |
12:54 |
: Not sure how it started.
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12:54 |
i remember in one Dave’s chats if a team planes crashes and there are no survivors a supplemental draft takes place, thats why i was wondering if theres some comp for Taveras |
12:55 |
: Yeah, but that’s if there are serious roster repercussions. *Solely in the context of the roster and not the scale of tragedy* Taveras’s passing is simply a career-ending injury.
|
12:55 |
: And let me stress this again *SOLELY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ROSTER*
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12:56 |
How would Barry Bonds project for next year in SF? |
12:56 |
: Pretty poorly at this point.
|
12:56 |
More importantly, can we look forward to Bumgarner attempting to start an app developing company (“I really like to use apps!”) and getting tons of PNW taxpayer dollars and then having the bottom fall out because he’s a baseball player and not a businessman |
12:57 |
: The thing you have to remember is that Schilling *is* familiar with the gaming industry. It just didn’t work out.
|
12:57 |
: He tried to buy the rights to Advanced Squad Leader years ago.
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12:57 |
Which current San Francisco Giant is most likely to have a statue outside AT&T Park 30-40 years from now? |
12:58 |
: Posey
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12:58 |
Do you have a borderline WAR amount for HOF induction? |
12:58 |
: Not a set specific number.
|
12:58 |
Moore’s Law, starring Ryan Gosling as Dayton Moore. “When the entire analytic community is against you, all you have to do is…reach for Moore” |
12:58 |
My econometrics professor from undergrad said that randomness (or “luck”) was just a term for variables we couldn’t explain yet. |
12:58 |
: We riffed on this last week.
|
12:58 |
I think the PR sense on what to do in regards to paying a player passing away would vary hugely by player. If you have a 35 year old who has made $100 million in his career, you can feel pretty confident that his family is going to be fine for a couple of generations. But a player like Taveras, who didn’t even spend a full season in the Majors? I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals make some low 7 figures payment to the family. |
12:59 |
: As I noted, he almost certainly get a death benefit from the MLBPA.
|
12:59 |
Aren’t managers grossly overrated most of the time? I’ve always seen managers are far more likely to lose a game for their team than to actually be the reason for winning one. |
12:59 |
: They are. But I rather have a good one rather than a terrible one.
|
12:59 |
Is ZiPS up and running? If so, can you give us a teaser projection from one of the first teams? |
12:59 |
: ZiPS is mostly done but I don’t have all the minor league translations done.
|
1:00 |
I think it was Buster Olney who tweeted that Lorenzo Cain is now in the “upper echelon” of Major League OFs. Are people overreacting to his really good week? As a Brewer fan, I was then and still am perfectly fine w/ trading him and Escobar for Greinke. |
1:00 |
: Depends on how big your echelons are. He *did* just have a 5 WAR season by both FG and BR
|
1:00 |
Does Hanley make sense for the Yankees? |
1:00 |
: Yes
|
1:00 |
Shouldn’t Sherzer be in those hypothetical Yankees rotations? |
1:00 |
: Possibly.
|
1:00 |
The biggest thing I like about Maddon potentially coming to the Cubs is his understanding of lineup construction, particularly in regards to reverse splits. Plus, I think he could convince Rizzo, the Cubs’ best all around hitter, to bat 2nd and feel good about it. Do I think he suddenly changes the equation for what needs to happen for the Cubs to contend in 2015? No. Does he add a game or two in the win total? Yes. Would I feel more comfortable about the Cubs entering a playoff series in the next couple of years with Maddon instead of Renteria? Yes. Although who knows if that comfort level would relate to winning a series or not. |
1:01 |
why all this hubbub about pitch delays making baseball take longer when it seems pretty clear that the culprit is advertising? |
1:01 |
: It’s easier to axe dead time that doesn’t earn money than dead time that does.
|
1:01 |
After getting rid of Taco Tuesday and replacing it with fish tacos George gives Stuart the idea to run for class president. Stuart decides to run and do things to help him get his vote. He bakes cookies and passes out fliers. Stuart cleans up the school playground and makes the mascot better. He also makes a pettition to get Taco Tuesday back instead of having to eat those fish tacos no one likes. Will he be able to bring back Taco Tuesday and will he also be chosen as class president? |
1:01 |
Regarding the Disaster Drafts: At least 5 players have to to be dead, dismembered, or permanently disabled in order to trigger the draft. (6 players in the offseason) |
1:02 |
: Thanks, just saw what the wikipedia link went to – didn’t remember the exact deatails.
|
1:02 |
It’s so sad to think that the Taveras accident could happen to anybody. Without knowing the specifics, it’s not fair to criticize the roads inthe Domincan, but I think it should be noted that the generally terrible roads and lack of enforcement of rules could very well have been a factor in Oscar’s crash. |
1:02 |
With Gary Busey as Ned Yost |
1:02 |
I just would like to apologize to you for getting screwed on the timing of your chat. This situation sucks, and you have to answer a lot of hard questions. I hope nobody takes your answers out of context. |
1:03 |
: I’m being very careful. I’m extremely down about the whole thing and I’m being very careful to not say something that will sound awful out of context.
|
1:03 |
: Especially as I’m a guy who makes a lot of barbed quips that sound bad *in* proper context.
|
1:04 |
I still can’t get over how small of a sample we let impact our feelings abt a team. Two days ago the Royals were some amazing counter-culture sabermetrics pfff story, now they’re just whatever. all told we’ve been talking about like 15 games here! |
1:04 |
Do you follow the NBA? |
1:04 |
: Gotten back into it. There was a long period in which I wasn’t really following. Still a distant third.
|
1:04 |
The sad thing about Schilling’s company (38 Studios) is that Kingdoms of Amalur was actually a really solid game. |
1:04 |
: It was the right game at the wrong time really.
|
1:04 |
: It’s very hard to compete directly with Skyrim and Dragon Age.
|
1:05 |
: People in the comments in Calcaterra’s post on schilling really made me want to punch them.
|
1:05 |
: As if 38 studios not existing was evidence of Schilling being immoral, which is just ridiculous.
|
1:06 |
: Startups fail – every person in the video game industry is damn sure to be aware of this.
|
1:06 |
: And it was the government of Rhode Island that was employed to be the gatekeeper of the tax money of the people of Rhode Island, not Schilling or 38 Studios.
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1:07 |
I’d like to take just a moment to point out that incidents like these are exactly why I’m so excited about Google’s self-driving car. The max speed may not be the highest, but the idea of everybody safely getting where they need to be… that’s worth it. |
1:08 |
no more car accidents in exchange for enslavement by google |
1:08 |
: We all sell ourselves in some way or another. We are our own most valuable commodity, so why not monetize it?
|
1:08 |
When will we see Eric Sogard wearing Google glass in game |
1:09 |
there are ways to monetize yourself that don’t involve giving up all of yourself |
1:09 |
: Depends on what the price is.
|
1:10 |
: On that depressing note, time to end the most depressing chat we’re likely to have fo rawhile.
|
1:10 |
and at a macro level, depends on whether there’s a monopsony that severely undercuts the values that backdrop our liberal democratic society |
1:10 |
: My best wishes to the family of Oscar Taveras, who are going through one of the worst things anyone can have to go through. As sad as we are, it pales in comparison to what his loved ones face.
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1:11 |
: You know all the places you can get me, dont’ feel like doing the whole self promotion plug thing. So yada yada yaday see you guys next time.
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Despite all the valid reasons to do it, it’s just very unMet-like to remove a likable Met-family guy like Terry Collins for a guy who’s likely to hog a lot of the bright lights in NY (not to mention cost a lot more).