FG on Fox: Will the Real Eric Hosmer Please Stand Up?

by
October 27, 2014

Eric Hosmer looks the part. If you wonder why guys like Hosmer are extended impossibly long lengths of rope at the big league level, you don’t have do much more than look at him. Watch him play first base and listen to a batting practice session and it becomes very easy to understand the hype behind the Royals starting first baseman.

The back of Hosmer’s baseball card betrays his “top of the class” eye test scores. When that tantalizing talent finally starts to deliver, it’s a big moment for fans of the club. When that blue chip talent starts fulfilling his destiny during the first playoff run in 29 years, it’s a dream come true.

Such is the euphoric state of the Kansas City Royals and Eric Hosmer. While it isn’t the first time in his career that he started both looking and producing like a cornerstone infielder, it comes at the most opportune time imaginable. The Royals are dangerously close to winning the World Series and the former third overall draft pick is instrumental in their progress.

He’s drawn more walks in October than any single month during the regular season. He’s hitting the ball with power, counting two homers, two doubles, and a triple in 12 postseason games. The high-leverage nature of these extra base knocks helps muddle the “he turned a corner!” picture. This follows a September in which he knocked another 12 extra base hits after missing most of August with a hand injury.

The problem with putting too much stock in this tiny stretch of great play all is the not insignificant memory of 2200 league average plate appearances. Swing changes and adjustments to approach are well and good, but there is a very large pile of evidence that suggests we already know what kind of production we can expect from the big left-handed hitter.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.





 

Drew used to write about baseball and other things at theScore but now he writes here. Follow him on twitter @DrewGROF

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Avattoir
9 years ago

The Baseball_Reference age similarity measure has him closest at this age, 24, to Keith Hernandez. In previous seasons, his closest comparators were Eddie Murray and John Olerud. Any of those 3 would constitute a terrific outcome for KC, but while certainly fits the picture in this article here and at JABO, it runs contrary to the visual impression of someone closer to a Freddie Freeman. However, this article suggests we not be deceived by the physical impression of what there’s a tendency to perceive as the sort of swing that’s typical of producers of home run numbers.

But is that visual impression more a reflection misunderstanding about what makes for lots and lots of homers?

With the exception of Willie Mays, a normal-population sized guy with a lot of movement we ASSOCIATE with high athleticism but also tends to harbor some irrelevancies and inefficiencies, those with the biggest career numbers seem to have shorter swings, some even from shorter-than-typical arms such as Harmon Killebrew, even Mantle who was again a normal-height guy tho with a wider, stockier, more powerful-looking body than Mays.

Hosmer’s big: 6’4 and 225. But Olerud was even taller, as is Belt, who’s also heavier and seems more likely to have to cart around a bigger frame over the next 5-10 seasons. So, this article about his PA approach and tendencies AND the closest comparators all argue against Hosmer developing – morphing, really – into a slugger. I’d be mildly surprised if, barring personal catastrophe, Hosmer and Belt end up with dramatically different career records.

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tz
9 years ago
Reply to  Avattoir

I remember a young first baseman who Ted Williams asserted had the most perfect swing he had ever seen. That visual impression must explain how Todd Benzinger was able to get over 3000 major league plate appearances with number like this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1000859&position=1B

As for Hosmer, the career paths of Gregg Jeffries and Sean Casey came to my mind, where there was an expectation of a potential Triple Crown type hitter that never emerged. Since Hosmer’s only 25, there’s still a glimmer of hope for him making a big leap forward, but I’m inclined to agree with you that he’s likely to be about as good as Brandon Belt.

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Avattoir
9 years ago
Reply to  tz

Yeah, Teddy F’ing Baseball crept into my mind, too, as the protypical long-swing, high-average, massive OBP but also big power guy. But then we look at Williams’ career arc, and … by 23, a year younger than Hosmer is now, he’d already picked up 34 career WAR, and an AVERAGE of over 190 OPS+. For Hosmer to morph from what he’s been into THAT isn’t merely remote, it’s another galaxy over.

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tz
9 years ago
Reply to  Avattoir

Er, wasn’t thinking about Ted Williams at all, just his observations about Todd Benzinger and the “eye factor”.

Williams was one of a kind. There’s only one guy whose game bore any resemblance to his – he just left a gaping hole in LF for the Giants a few years back.

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