Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/28/13

Dan Szymborski: Coming up on Dateline Monday, hardball veteran reporter Dan Szymborski tackles the disappearance of Shelby Miller. Why are the Cardinals covering up Shelby Miller’s disappearance near Howland Island? Is he working for the NPB? Or has the NSA blackmailed him into going into hiding?

Comment From GSon
Better WS, 2013 or 1997 with all the quirky plays?

Dan Szymborski: 2013’s been great fun

Dan Szymborski: 1986 is still my favorite.

Comment From Guest
Who’s going to win the series Dan? WHO IS IT?

Dan Szymborski: Still have Red Sox.

Comment From Guest
Your opinion should be wrong. I have a Thai dinner staked on those cards. More obstruction please, so my colon can experience 5 star obstruction.

Dan Szymborski: So, is a win in the cards? You can have that bad pun for free, NY Post.

Comment From Izzy
Do you think Noah Syndergaard could be a league average pitcher right now? Also, Syndergaard or Wheeler?

Dan Szymborski: Still Wheeler, given that he’s already been good in the actual majors already, but Syndergaard has made a strong case for him being a decent major leaguer right now

Comment From David
Two Natoionals questions. 1. Is Tanner Roark a feasible #5 for them or was his sudden emergency a complete fluke? 2. Any thoughts on Matt Williams hiring?

Dan Szymborski: He was quite good and probably a feasible #5, but in the Nats position, it makes sense for them to hedge their best a bit.

Dan Szymborski: Always hard to tell with a new manager until he actually manages. Rizzo and him have a history, so he’s clearly comfortable with Williams.

Dan Szymborski: First task will be to get the clubhouse in order. It’s a little awkward to take a managerial job after players keep telling the press that they wanted another guy (Knorr) to be the manager

Comment From Brian
Do you have the Red Sox going into 2014 with Middlebrooks at 3rd and Bogaerts at SS? Or do they sign another veteran stopgap like Drew?

Dan Szymborski: The former is what they should do. The market kind of sucks, so I expect that’s what they will do.

Dan Szymborski: The Middle/Bogie option, that is

Comment From Bob
Scherzer 5 wins next year worth more than 1-year rental haul?

Dan Szymborski: For some teams, yes, but the Tigers are in win now mode still. Mike Ilitch knows how old he is.

Comment From Izzy
What are the chances that David Wright gets to 300 career SB? He’d be the 2nd guy to do it for one team.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he gets there. He’s still 7 years of 2013’s total to get there. And he’s not going to be stealing 15-20 bases a year at age 36.

Comment From Izzy
Rank the 5 best position players in this world series (in order).

Dan Szymborski: You mean performing?

Dan Szymborski: Ortiz, Holliday, Molina, Beltran, Craig, I guess.

Comment From Nick
Ever since someone said it in the World Series chat, I can’t help but notice Pedroia’s “false hustle.”

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure anyone can really diagnose that kind of thing.

Comment From Izzy
Could a team that signs Cano play him at third? Do you think that would help him age better?

Dan Szymborski: It might, but it also takes away some of his value.

Comment From Bobo
Thoughts on Dozier? Does he stick at 2B for the Twins?

Dan Szymborski: He’s at least a stopgap for them at this point.

Comment From Izzy
What are the chances that Beltran gets to 400 HR?

Dan Szymborski: Quite good. I think he has 2 years as a starter left in him

Comment From Clint Hurdle
Is Jordy Mercer my SS in 2014

Dan Szymborski: LIkely. The market sucks and Hanson isn’t ready yet

Comment From JEB
Does Harpers value diminish next year because of this surgery? or will he be ok by opening day?

Dan Szymborski: No. It wasn’t major surgery, just cleaning up a membrane issue in his knee

Dan Szymborski: He’s got an offseason to rest – he was playing through it most of th eyear.

Comment From Nick
Is there anything to the poor defense and mismanagement of the Red Sox in this series? Is it just more noticeable than it has been all season?

Dan Szymborski: Things that don’t work out just look bigger in WS. There has been some really shitty defense, but it happens.

Comment From Izzy
No, just the 5 you’d most want on your team in 2014.

Comment From Mike
Do you use the same aging curves as other projections? Can someone find those on the internet?

Dan Szymborski: There are no pre-determined aging curves – they’re derived from the large pool of similar players on the fly

Comment From Erich
Are the Brewers going to have to go through an Astros-esque nadir to become a viable competitor again? Seems that their core from a few years ago is disintegrating, and the minor league system is pretty threadbare.

Dan Szymborski: It’s very likely. The quickie rebound either requires a lot of money or a lot of prospects. When you have neither, you’re going to have that painful period.

Comment From David
Assume Ian Desmond gets a contract extension this winter, since it’s been so often talked about in the DC media. 2 straight 5-win seasons. He gets ____ years worth $____.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he gets one this offseason.

Comment From Moosh
Any opinion on Jose Abreu? Will he be a lot better than a .280/25/85 guy?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got him as a league-averageish 1B.

Dan Szymborski: Had a projection for him earlier this week on Twitter.

Comment From Preston
Is Tanaka really a frontline starter in MLB? His K rate seems a little low for that.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be super concerned – NPB isn’t a big strikeout league. Darvish was kind of a freak and even his K rate went up in MLB.

Dan Szymborski: Among qualifiers, Tanaka was 3rd in the pacific NPB league

Dan Szymborski: He’s got the fastball and nasty splitter. He’ll do just fine in the US, though is best US is going to be on a team with good infield defense.

Dan Szymborski: And in a bleh market for starting pitchers, he’s rightly coveted

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Anthony Rizzo? Looks like a bad case of some BABIP misfortune.

Dan Szymborski: His BABIP should be higher. People shouldn’t throw in the towel so quickly. Hard to explain why he just dropped off face of the earth in the summer.

Dan Szymborski: Which seemd to be a malady of most of the team.

Comment From Preston
Who do you think is really to blame for the obstruction play, Salty for making the throw, or Middlebrooks for not coming off the bag and making the catch?

Dan Szymborski: Salty had no business making that throw. Red Sox had dumbass throws to 3rd in consecutive games that cost them

Comment From Dave
Will Polanco be the Pirates future leadoff guy with his his OBP and low strikeouts or do you think he’ll develop more power to become a middle of the order guy?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s more likely he adds power than is a true leadoff guy

Dan Szymborski: He’s not a little dude. He’s pretty tall and he’s already not quite as skinny as he was a few years ago

Comment From Bret
Is Carlos Ruiz a nice bounceback candidate, or does it look like he’s onto his decline phase?

Dan Szymborski: He’s too old to really be a great bounceback candidate, but he probably has a year or two left as a passable starter.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Joe Buck said David Ortiz was easily the greatest DH ever. Isn’t he a very clear second to Edgar?

Dan Szymborski: Their starts are similar, but Ortiz hasn’t had his real decline phase yet (and is like 2000-3000 PA short of Edgar, IIRC)

Dan Szymborski: But you should know better than to be listening to things that Buck or McCqarver say.

Comment From Guest
What unlikely play will tonight’s game end on? Triple play? Walk off balk?

Dan Szymborski: My vote for crazy ending is a long foul ball caught in right that shouldn’t have been caught because it’s a walk-off sac fly.

Comment From Tom
Any guesses on the most impactful (positive or negative) move Dayton Moore makes this winter?

Dan Szymborski: I can see them doing stupid like overpaying for an outfielder

Dan Szymborski: Like Marlon Byrd

Dan Szymborski: or Moore trading Butler for magic beans that turn out to be navy beans.

Comment From David
Surprising you don’t think he gets an extension, since it seems like all the DC beat writers think he will. I’d be okay with waiting another year, but then he might be tempted to just test free agency.

Dan Szymborski: I think the team is waiting

Comment From That One Guy
If the Tigers did trade Scherzer, what kind of return do you think he’d bring, with only 1 year of team control?

Dan Szymborski: He’d still get a lot – he’s coming off a huge year, after all

Comment From Chicago Mark
Did you read the Farnsworth article on Abreau? Would it change your expectations of him for 2014 and going forward?

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

Comment From Joe
What do you expect from Kemp next year?

Dan Szymborski: Moderate bounceback to 130 OPS+ type season with lousy defense

Comment From Guest
Best guess, Tanaka is playing for who next year?

Dan Szymborski: If you held a gun to my head and made me choose, not only would it be a strange use of a gun, but I would pick Dodgers or Mariners.

Comment From Moosh
Do you think George Springer makes Astros starting lineup out of Spring Training. If not, why not. Thank you.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll let him kill AAA for a month.

Dan Szymborski: If they were eager to get that service clock going, you would have seen him at the end of the year

Comment From Donnie Baseball
I’m putting my money on a walkoff dropped third strike.

Comment From Brendan
Do you believe the Cubs should attempt to trade Samardzija?

Dan Szymborski: Always listen, but I don’t think they should enter with the explicit goal of trading him

Comment From David
Projection for Anthony Rendon next year? Steamer seems pretty low (.250/.325/.315). Am I being a homer or is that low? It’s actually worse than his rookie year.

Dan Szymborski: That seems low. ZiPS isn’t doign official stuff until after the Series.

Comment From Josh
Ever think of doing a baseball version of Bill Barnwell’s “Thank you for not coaching” nfl column? I think it would be interesting, not for the manager-bashing but as an exercise in examining the mechanics of optimal strategy.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I dont’ think it would be as interesting

Dan Szymborski: Baseball is, at its core, a marathon game, in which signfiicant decisions are made over weeks and months, of strategic scope.

Dan Szymborski: While most tactical decisions are, in fact, quite often coin flips.

Comment From Guest
Is Strasburg breaking down? Another elbow surgery.

Dan Szymborski: Just some fall cleaning.

Comment From Dave
Will Marte develop any more power, or is this pretty much what we should expect going forward?

Dan Szymborski: He could have a couple 20 HR years, but I don’t think a big uptick in his “true” HR ability is super likely

Comment From Jay
Do you think Brian Wilson signs on as a closer next year? If so, with whom?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll have to be a setup guy, even being solid with Dodgers down stretch

Dan Szymborski: He was last healthy and terrific in 2010 after all.

Comment From Jay
Assuming the O’s can’t spend big $ in FA, what would be some low cost moves to improve the team. Unless Guasman steps up, it’s hard to see easy fixes to their mediocre rotation (at best)

Dan Szymborski: Cruz maybe.

Comment From Dave
Is Marte a future Platoon outfielder? 199wRC+ against lefties, 104 against righties

Dan Szymborski: Probably not. He wasn’t hopeless against righties.

Comment From Schmiggy
amusing the reach of Red Sox bias that there is actually a debate going on over the game 3 obstruction call and led by DC nonetheless… obstruction is um, part of the game and suggesting it be changed after that play is ludicrous.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
Jonah Keri does a similar thing to Barnwell’s NFL coaching critique, he just doesn’t have a catchy name for it as it appears within longer articles (possible that previous commenter was suggesting a more in-depth analysis than what Keri does, of course).

Dan Szymborski: I tend to prefer doing punchy news-related articles, honestly.

Comment From Guest
What kind of deal do you see Corey Hart landing?

Dan Szymborski: 1/9

Dan Szymborski: with heavy performance incentives and a very large option year

Comment From RSquared
Red Sox score what proves to be winning run when a pitch grazes Napoli’s beard. Sox by a whisker /rimshot.

Dan Szymborski: As I said last night, the Red Sox celebrating looks like the first hour of the hobbit.

Comment From Guest
Where do you think Eric O’Flaherty ends up and for what? When is he even expected to be back?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t heard much about him lately. Last I heard, he probalby won’t be ready to start 2014, so it means a heavily incentivized short-term deal

Comment From Schmiggy
any word on who has been linked to Nolasco? He seems to be flying a bit under the radar as of now. Could be the best value on the FA mkt.

Dan Szymborski: The Mets have been linked with him a bit.

Dan Szymborski: Rumor mills don’t really get solid and interesting until calendar changes until November.

Comment From Dave
Why didn’t anyone pick up James McDonald on waivers? Seems like a solid #3-#4 if he regains his mechanics. Is he completely broken?

Dan Szymborski: Given how terrible he was and unresolved shoulder issues, it probably wasn’t worth most team’s time.

Dan Szymborski: He would have been a non-tender candidate anyway – I’m not sure I want to pay him a minimum of $2.4 million to retain him for 2014.

Dan Szymborski: And it wasn’t like he was going to help anybody in September.

Comment From Andrelton Simmons Rig
Do you believe in Parra’s defense enough that the Dbacks should commit to him long term?

Dan Szymborski: As always, depends on the numbers involved. Also, what trade value Adam Eaton has if they go that route.

Dan Szymborski: Shouldn’t go super nuts over a year of crazy defensive numbers.

Comment From Schmiggy
Mets?! haven’t heard that, and that’s coming from a Mets fan.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard it from a couple people.

Comment From Justin
Some rumblings about Ellsbury to the Dodgers, possibly in connection with a Kemp trade. On a scale of 1 to Ned-Colletti, how likely is this to happen?

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers would have to eat a ton right now to trade Kemp.

Dan Szymborski: Problem the Dodgers have is that if they’re going to get a rich team to take his contract given his uncertainty, the best candidate is…the Dodgers.

Dan Szymborski: I’d be shocked if Tacoby ends up with the Dodgers.

Comment From Donnie Baseball
In order of most to least likely to play shortstop for the Cardinals next year, please rank the following: Kozma, Tulowitzki, Desmond, Andrus, Drew, Matt Carpenter, other.

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure they kick the tires on Ryan Jackson in the spring

Dan Szymborski: And they have had a curious resistance to launching Pete Kozma into the sun

Dan Szymborski: Stephen Drew would be interesting at least.

Dan Szymborski: Andrus not happening.

Dan Szymborski: Not Desmond. I think the Rockies keep Tulo

Comment From Transient Gadfly
Hey, was I the only one who noticed last night that Bucholz seemed to be rubbing his pitching hand on the back of his (extremely sweaty or possibly greasy) hair before many of his pitches last night? That’s, like, illegal, right?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t notice.

Comment From ozzie
was jose abreu a good signing for the white sox, all things considered surrounding the uncertainties of signing foreign players?

Dan Szymborski: It was a fair signing. The White Sox suck, so uncertainty isn’t an issue up there – upside is.

Dan Szymborski: When bad teams are given the choice between “interesting” and “safe” at comparable prices, they should almost always choose interesting.

Comment From Dave
Do you see the Pirates turning around and trading some of their bullpens arms (melancon namely) for a better 1st base option?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll continue to churn and burn closers.

Comment From Schmiggy
it isn’t just 1 yr of crazy defensive numbers. He’s been crazy good defensively since he’s had a Snakes uni on.

Dan Szymborski: 5-10 runs a year to a 25-35 run season is very, very different.

Comment From John
Trade Victor martinez, prince to DH miggy to 1B, peralta at 3B?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
What type of contract do you think Chris Perez gets after he gets non-tendered?

Dan Szymborski: 2/9

Comment From That One Guy
Any Kemp for Fielder possibly? Does A-Gon completely foil such a trade?

Dan Szymborski: Not happening.

Comment From Guest
I’ve been saying for 6 months now that the Cardinals should trade for Danny Espinosa. Great defense and there’s at least offensive upside. And could probably get him for a bag of balls at this point.

Dan Szymborski: Would be interesting. Kinda bugs me that such a clever organization seems to have an inability to be outside the box at SS.

Comment From Schmiggy
I think the defensive runs scored metric can be viewed too literally. I’m saying that the metric has finally caught up with how incredibly good he’s been on the field for 3 yrs.

Dan Szymborski: Metrics don’t work like that. It’s not like they “learned” something about his defense last offseason that it didn’t understand it previous years.

Dan Szymborski: And frankly, I’m highly skeptical of the notion that position a rightfielder can be worth +30 runs on defense.

Comment From Schmiggy
A’s deal Reddick?

Dan Szymborski: They certainly should listen.

Comment From Schmiggy
Brett Anderson for Colby Rasmus a fair swap of players with 1 yr to FA?

Dan Szymborski: Too much uncertainty for Anderson for that.

Comment From Justin
Considering the Cardinals’ success in recent years, are any teams likely to move to the safe, high-floor approach the Cards take with player acquisition and development?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re *that* safe. If it was that easy to do, everybody would do it.

Comment From Guest
Gyorko = Uggla ?? Better or worse ?? Is he gonna stay at 2nd for the PAds ??

Dan Szymborski: That’s kind of mean.

Dan Szymborski: Uggla will have a better year thanks to a less comical BABIP, but he’s still going to suck

Dan Szymborski: Gyorko’s more adequate defensively than Uggla ever really was.

Comment From RSquared
Does Salty’s poor performance diminish his FA appeal? Does he get a QO?

Dan Szymborski: The thing is that they probably should. Teams can overpay for one-year contracts.

Comment From Schmiggy
but what is indisputable about the defensive metrics is the variation from yr to yr. and we can glean from that that said player is an elite defensive player even if the DRS fluctuates bet 5 -20 – 6 – 15, etc.

Dan Szymborski: Just because there’s variation doesn’t make the high number more accurate.

Comment From Chris
What are your feelings on Grady Sizemore and where he ends up?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly? I think he’s done.

Comment From Schmiggy
hmmm, Rasmus pulls a 4.8 win season right after a 1.1 and .5 and now he’s some sure thing ? Brett A for Colby seems like a fair swap given the relative needs of both teams. Minor juice on either side to facilitate

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t make much sense for the Blue Jays.

Dan Szymborski: If they blow the team up, there’s no point to bringing in Anderson.

Dan Szymborski: If they double-down, they need certainty more than a lottery ticket.

Comment From Jono
Schmiggy is looking for a throwdown. NO comment from DS safe!

Comment From Schmiggy
sure it does. opens CF for Gose plus adds a SP that they need.

Dan Szymborski: Blue Jays have no reason to be interested in a short-term lotto pick.

Comment From Wink
Is there a difference in terms of how NPB batters are evaluated versus NPB pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: Power numbers take a huge dive from Japan to MLB, while other stuff takes less of a hit

Comment From Schmiggy
Duda for Asdrubal ?

Dan Szymborski: I think Indians hang onto Asdrubal for now. Duda should end up with a DH team though!

Comment From Wink
Follow up, posting aside, what would you think is a fair contract offer for Tanaka?

Dan Szymborski: Including posting, 4/70-80

Dan Szymborski: He should obviously get less than Darvish

Dan Szymborski: Though I woudln’t be shocked if a team with money to spend and looking at the rather mediocre FA market overpays him after posting

Comment From Schmiggy
why is Brett Anderson a lotto pick?

Dan Szymborski: The fact that he’s never healthy?

Comment From Terrible Ted
Player x for player y? WHY NOT, ARE YOU CRAZY?!

Comment From Bubba
Wouldn’t Cubs be a perfect fit for Tanaka?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure this is quite the moment to take a splash.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the core is good enough yet.

Comment From Jono
a sane man should never argue with a fool, bystanders may not be able to tell the difference

Dan Szymborski: Wait,w hat?

Dan Szymborski: Anyway, time to shove off for the week. Thanks for coming and hope to see you guys next week!

Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find me over at ESPN (and doing 9th inning and postgame chatting after the Series games) and projections here at FanGraphs.

Comment From Terrible Ted
Thanks Dan, thanks Pearl Jam.

Dan Szymborski: I want a network to use Piazza, New York Catcher