Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/3/16

Dan Szymborski: Peanut butter jelly time.

Dan Szymborski: No dancing bananas. Just shut up and eat your sandwich.

Tim: I’m a big Dodgers fan, what is the teams #1 concern?

Dan Szymborski: There’s some angry Babylonian god that’s focused primarily on making their starting pitchers injured.

Dan Szymborski: Or having to go through the Cubs at some point

Erik: If a team made all of their signings and trades based strictly on ZiPS, never allowing themselves to allow their own intuitions to have any affect, how much better or worse off would they be than a typical organization? What type of great moves would they pull off? What would their biggest blunders be?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell – I don’t like planning like that, because understanding projections means knowing what projections and mean and *don’t* mean.

CamdenWarehouse: Is the total WAR across the majors usually in line with what was projected by most projection systems?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Once you know the playing time, of course.

Dan Szymborski: If you just adde dup ZiPS, since I do like 2300 guys, you’d get way more WAR because a lot of those guys will be in the minors

Erik: Is there an easy way to compare all players against their preseason ZiPS projections, to find the biggest hits and misses of the year? Or do you know off hand some interestingly accurate or inaccurate projections?

Dan Szymborski: There are a number of math ways to do it. I do my own work internally, but I have an insurmountable conflict of interest so simply provide data for third parties.

Moltar: How crazy was the last 6 weeks of the Mets’ season? They had a %6.3 chance at the playoffs in late august and lost 3 top pitchers (4 if you can count Wheeler).

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, ZiPS had them getting as low as 8% when they were 66% in June.

JDX: Past 2 calendar years… wOBA leaders… Votto (.420), Trout (.417), Cabrera (.405). I don’t think a lot of people realize how good a hitter Votto is/has been.

Dan Szymborski: Especially a segment of Reds fans and Brennamanms.

Chuncey Wiggins: You are tasked with hiding a bear trap somewhere in the infield. Where do you place it to create the most devastating blow?

Dan Szymborski: First base line. Most traffic and most straightforward path.

Chuncey Wiggins: Which player has been involved in the most replay challenges? Why can’t I find this information anywhere?

Dan Szymborski: I hvae no idea.

Art Vandelay: In your opinion, was this Verlander’s last great year?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t necessarily say that. He’s striking out guys again.

Eric Weinstein: Why is David Ortiz viewed as a slam dunk to get into the HOF but Sammy Sosa struggles to stay on the ballot? Sosa has a 10 WAR advantage. Ortiz closes that gap somewhat with his postseason heroics and the DH penalty. But Sosa has some other big non-WAR credentials: Three 60 HR seasons, an MVP and being one of the most famous athletes, not just baseball players, of his time. And Sosa and Ortiz failed the same steroid test.

Dan Szymborski: PEDs are evaluated arbitrarily.

Dan Szymborski: I’m telling you, if Jeter had been caught using PEDs, Bonds is in the Hall right now.

Robbie: What do you do after the postseason ends? I was thinking of trying fantasy basketball to give myself another sport to care about in the offseason. There’s only so much speculation and ranking I can do for next season

Dan Szymborski: Baseball offseason!

Dan Szymborski: And game stuff. BlizzCon happens after the season and I might be there depending on how we cover it

Erik: FanGraphs has the Red Sox on nearly equal WS odds to the Cubs. Are they actually equally good teams? Or is the AL considerably easier to get through than the NL?

Dan Szymborski: I th ink the AL is weaker – ZiPS certainly has the Cubs favored though.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know FanGraphs method for the playoff odds, so I can’t comment on it really

CarrotJuice: Did you think AJ Preller’s suspension was sufficient in length, or should he have been suspended longer?

Dan Szymborski: I think the team should have been punished severely – there’s no way he did that all by himself

The Lure of the Animal: Is it now safe to say that the Ryan Howard contract was the worst in MLB history? $125M for -2.1 WAR.

Dan Szymborski: And that’s the kind one – BR had him at -4.4 WAR.

Dan Szymborski: It’s up there.

Obvious Fantasy Question: Pick 2: Archer, Rodon, Cotton, Reyes

Dan Szymborski: Reyes, Archer

JT: Justin Verlander leads the AL in WAR and strikeouts and 2nd in ERA only behind a few hundredths of a run in a pretty weak starting pitcher class. However britton has the ERA. Any chance we see a reliever win CYA or are those days behind us?

Dan Szymborski: Relievers are weird. Like Pitcher MVPs, they need to have some Special Narrative to get the award.

Dan Szymborski: Porcello went 22-4 and his ERA didn’t suck. I can’t see him not winning it.

Erik: What are some particularly interesting potential World Series matchups that a neutral fan should root for?

Dan Szymborski: Red Sox-Cubs!

jwblue: Who would be a good comp for Trea Turner? I would think a ceiling of Craig Biggio is not out of the question. Maybe a floor of Steve Sax.

Dan Szymborski: I actually have ZiPS open, hang on

Fire Kevin Cash: The Rays entered yesterday controlling their own destiny for their draft slot. If they lost, they were guaranteed the second pick. If they won, they go as low as 6. They did win (and got the 4th pick), and used their best pitchers available, so it wasn’t an accident. I get that you don’t tank a whole season for a slightly better pick, but was one win really worth the draft pool dollars and a shot at better players?

Dan Szymborski: It isn’t, but on a level, it’s easier to tank a season by picking a strategy that de-emphasizes current wins. A game, it looks kinda obvious

Dan Szymborski: It’s still prelim, but Molitor, Jeter, and Sandberg all in Turner’s top 10 comps

Dan Szymborski: Also Weeks and Infante. C hris Brown

Ryan Zimmerman: Is my career over? Am I washed up at the age of 31?

Dan Szymborski: No, yes.

Kvn: Do you think the O’s could actually go with Ubaldo in the WC game given his last month or so and a recent, very solid start against the Jays? Before you answer, remember that the last time the O’s were in the WC game Buck started Joe Saunders.

Dan Szymborski: I think they very well could. No idea if they get Good Ubaldo or Bad Ubaldo

CarrotJuice: What is ZiPS going to think of Rich Hill going forward? Will it be as confused as the rest of us?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has generally liked Hill.

CarrotJuice: Do you have a vote for any awards this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I vote for the NL Rookie of the Year. My ballot is submitted and no, I can’t say who I voted for.

Eric: World series predictions?

Dan Szymborski: ESPN panel picks will be up today

Moltar: Am I wrong to be scared to death of Thor’s problems with stolen bases against the Giants? They might not have Dee Gordon, but with Panik, Pence, Pagan and a lot of their other guys, they have some smart baserunners. Mets have to start Rene Rivera at catcher, right?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a worry, but if Thor can’t shut down a team with a 94 OPS+, the Mets weren’t going to get far anyway

Fire Kevin Cash: We’ve seen a little bit of Chase Whitley coming back from Tommy John surgery this season, and he’s been effective. Does he profile as a 4/5 starter next year or more of a bullpen guy?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s going to be set in stone this winter – team’ll play it by year

Dan Szymborski: ear

The Decedent Moose: With a win on Tuesday, what are the chances Galileo gets a friend named Ubaldo?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got 4 cats already (I live alone and have 5 bedrooms, so it’s not the craziest amount of cats). 5 feels like too many

Jake: Which young Oakland hitter, outside of Ryon Healy, has the brightest future? Bruce Maxwell looked impressive.

Dan Szymborski: I remain very optimistic about Barreto’s power

CarrotJuice: Excerpt from my screenplay: The Saber Matrix
Cypher: You know, I know this baseball chat doesn’t exist. I know that when I partake in it, the Saber Matrix is telling my brain that it is funny and informative. After nine years, you know what I realize?
Judging pitchers by wins is bliss.

Spring Blake: Orioles tossing ubaldo in the wildcard game?? Oh man june me would be devastated but present me is excited

Dan Szymborski: Nto set yet. Should be Tillman or Ubaldo.

Hannah Hochevar: Reading and argument for Ubaldo starting for the O’s vs. Toronto. Who would you pick?

Dan Szymborski: Tillman

Dock Ellis: We all know the playoffs are a crapshoot, but has there been any other team in recent memory been as well rounded as they Cubs are this year?

Dan Szymborski: Not in the last 5 years

I am the walrus: Arreta’s with his 4.40 second half ERA has got to be the #3 in playoffs right?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not *that* worried. The Cubs can pretty much cruise on normal rest

Mine! : How disappointed are you that there’s no wild card tiebreaker madness? I’m pretty upset.

Dan Szymborski: I would have liked mayhem. But mayhem could have resulted in the Orioles not making the playoffs.

The Lure of the Animal: Trumbo’s 47 HR and 123 wRC+ seemed absurd until I found out that 2000 Tony Bautista somehow did 41/100!

Dan Szymborski: Batista did it with the wackiest stance

CamdenWarehouse: What did you think of the Orioles farewell gift to Ortiz?

Dan Szymborski: The smashed phone was pretty sweet. Though that they kept it for years suggests there may be some hoarders at Camden.

Dan Szymborski: They made a charitable donation. Probably could’ve thrown in some pit beef or something, but it was a good farewell gift

zurzles: a while back there was an article about the orioles’ seeming skill in preventing injuries to starting pitchers, at least at the major league level. is that still a thing? why doesn’t anyone poke at teams like the dodgers/mets for possibly lacking that skill?

Dan Szymborski: The O’s?

Los: A Mark Trumbo single won me my league Sunday because I needed one more QS than 2nd place who was starting Cessa against the O’s. I love baseball.

Erik: Which wild card teams have rosters best suited to the oddities of wild card baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Giants. They can burn their best starter and still have an awesome one to throw two NLDS games.

Erik: Now that it’s been a few seasons, what are your thoughts on 10-team playoffs vs. 8-team playoffs? Does it make for a better or worse September? A better or worse October?

Dan Szymborski: I like 10 better than 8. Makes division a real prize again

JKD: Given Freddie Freeman’s explosion in the second half, his contract, and where the Braves are in the win curve, how irresponsible is it that they won’t trade him this winter? There are 15 teams that didn’t even get 2 WAR from 1B this year! Four were in the playoffs and four more just missed!

Dan Szymborski: Perversely, the Braves good second half may hurt their rebuild, the front office may think they’re closer than they are.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, a side note, until after the election, I am including political questions in the off-limits categories for the lightning round. It’s too polarized atmosphere.

CamdenWarehouse: Weiss and Ventura are already gone. Who else ceases to be a manager this week?

Dan Szymborski: I thought those were the two likely. Matheny probably should go and probably won’t. Not sure about Ausmus

Dan Szymborski: Paul Molitor, I suspect the Twins let him play out the last year of his contract

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see, who else? Scioscia seems invincible

Whats that Odor: Who starts for the Jays in the Wild card, Liriano or Stroman? Liriano was warming up in the pen last night so is that Gibby showing his hand?

Dan Szymborski: Liriano would make more sense – the O’s actually kinda sucked against lefties this year

Dan Szymborski: An 83 wRC+! That’s clownshoes.

JT: Losing games on purpose is a really really bad look for any team

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s one thing to prioritize winning later. When you’re actively tanking individual games, it’s a bad cultural thing

Dan Szymborski: Fans see that

Erik: Should the high prices paid for relievers at the deadline have any impact on the Zach Britton Cy Young question? It seems evident that we may have been undervaluing relievers. Perhaps the idea of never giving the Cy Young to a reliever is misguided?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

Matt: Could you see Cashman trying to make a push for Sonny Gray this offseason? What would it take? Think we could convince Billy that Rob Refsnyder and a bag of magic beans is enough to get it done?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t see the A’s trading Sonny Gray. They should’ve traded him last winter, but I don’t think they trade him at the least value

Lord above: Joke: Set up: Man, I really didn’t think that Fallujan baseball team would win the Iraqi pennant. Punchline: I guess I just didn’t see them outperforming Basrans by that much. Requirements for joke to work: Listener knowns where Fallujah and Basra are, Listener knows what Baseruns is, Listener is willing to pretend “Basrans” sound like “Baseruns”

Corb: Why Red Sox-Cubs? Aren’t you sick of Boston in the World Series yet?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a fun, classic matchup

Dan Szymborski: As an Orioles fan, *I* want Mets-O’s.

JD15: Do you know if there is a place other than team website where MLB teams post job openings?

Dan Szymborski: Teams have been using MLB for the public postings. There are always positions that aren’t listed, but that’s not really a help

Trainman: Was this year detroits best chance to sniff a postseason, especially with a somewhat resurgent VMart, and miggy being healthy? Do they have the same chance in 2017, or is it less with some important pieces (miggy, vmart, JV) continuing to age?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I think 2017 was their best shot.

I am the walrus: What do you think of Brewers young SS Arcia?

Dan Szymborski: Love ’em

Brandon: Is there anywhere we can find which players had their ZIPS projections change the most from the start of the season until now?

Dan Szymborski: No, I haven’t run it

Trainman: Dan, big Mets fan.. i have to ask the obvious question: what should realistic expectations be for this playoffs, or have the Mets already exceeded expectations with all their injuries ?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ve exceeded expectations. I just can’t see Syndergaard ‘n’ Friends getting through 3 teams after teh Giants.

Erik: What is the logic behind not allowing award voters to discuss their logic before the awards come out?

Dan Szymborski: So the award is a suprise and not a formality

sam: Is Andrew McCutchen just Matt Kemp + more walks at this point?

Dan Szymborski: McCutchen was bad this year in CF, really bad. But I’m not sure that’s an established level of CF play as poor as Kemp.

Dan Szymborski: Becuase Kemp plays centerfield like a syphilitic giraffe that was blinded by salt thrown by Mr. Fuji, shot by Teddy Roosevelt, and had previously stayed up for days while being forced to watch every episode of Caroline in the City while a robot implanted with the soul of Theodor Morell injected the giraffe every hour with a combination of nyquil, stimulants, and Dr. Diet Pibb that was found underneath the dumpster behind the 7-11.

CamdenWarehouse: Do you think David Wright plays again?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, bu tnot much.

Erik: Is a pitcher’s ability to control the run game including in WAR or any similar stats?

Dan Szymborski: It wouldn’t show up in a FIP-based WAR

Dan Szymborski: BR starts with runs allowed, that will contain the consequences.

The Lure of the Animal: So does each cat have its own bedroom??

Dan Szymborski: You’d think, but Galileo owns all of them

Matt: I live alone and have one bedroom, Dan. You must be a part of the one percent that is driving the epidemic of bedroom inequality in this country.

Guy: Who did more to hurt their offseason value in September: Jaime Garcia or Brandon Moss?

Dan Szymborski: Garcia.

Trainman: What is the most intriguing Matchup in the divisional series

Dan Szymborski: It could be Cubs-Giants because with 3/5 Bumgarner/Cueto starts, the Giants *could* win and a 5 game series is the most likely place for Cubs to be upset

CamdenWarehouse: Has Arrieta returned to the pitcher he was in Baltimore?

Dan Szymborski: No

Hal: Did Freddy Galvis just have the weirdest 20 homer season ever? He had a 79 OPS+!

Dan Szymborski: Arencibia had a 21 year with a *59*

Moltar: What’s your/ZIPS’s take on the Replace-Mets starters, Gsellman and Lugo? Future mid-rotation pieces? Gsellman in partiuclar is intriguing to me with his added velocity in the majors, reminds me of deGrom (and not just the hair).

Dan Szymborski: Gsellman is the more interesting one long-term.

Dan Szymborski: I think Lugo an OK back rotation piece, Gsellman may be a mid gtuy

CamdenWarehouse: Tony was awful. I prefer not to remember him.

JT: Maier/Cistulli 2020

Terrible Ted: Is there an easy way to separate offensive and defensive WAR for a player?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, look up oWAR and dWAR on FG or BR 😀

The Lure of the Animal: What’s your programming/statistical education/background?

Dan Szymborski: Math major in college. My programming experience was the required computer science credits in 1997, whicih I did the bare minimum to get a B.

Dan Szymborski: The other stat nerds make fun of me as I like good ol’ Statistica for a lot of things, not R

Moltar: With all the fun, young exciting teams int he playoffs this year, can I be justifiably disappointed if the world series is Giants-Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah. I’m tired of these even year shenanigans

Ed: Which player projection did you just NAIL with the ZIPS projection? Can you easily go back and tell how accurate you were?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I know the misses much better than the hits. Being right doesn’t make you learn much.

JT: The white sox were always the team cited for preventing injuries. They have missed the fewest days to the DL every season for like 15 years

Tyler: The loss of Jose Fernandez hurt baseball and it’s fans so much. But in terms of awards. What do you think of making an award in honor of his spirit of the game? And what do you think his Cy Young chances are now, vs before the accident?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’ll win the Cy, but he’ll get votes. I’d like to see some award named after him.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe the most fun player or something? A fun kind of award, not necessarily something analytical

Dan: As a Cubs fan I can’t figure out who I’d prefer to play–Giants rotation has been pretty good 2nd half, Mets offense has been pretty good second half, Mets have superb bullpen…what says you?

Dan Szymborski: Mets

Mark L: Chances of Beltran retiring at the end of the postseason?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a coin flip. He still hit this year and he doesn’t have a ring yet.

Mark: If the BBWAA is so enamoured with integrity (see Le Batard, Dan) they should kick out anyone who gives Ortiz a 1st place vote in the AL MVP race, right?

Dan Szymborski: That’s of course at ricky issue. I disagree with how LeBatard was treated.

Dan Szymborski: tricky

Dan Szymborski: The local chapter heads choose the voters. Voters that do a poor job I th ink should get fewer votes.

Dan Szymborski: And it really depends on the reasoning

Dan Szymborski: Someone trying to vote for the best player but I just think was wrong? Hard to take away a vote for that.

Dan Szymborski: Someone who announces they’ll never vote for a pitcher for MVP? That’s an abandonment of duty issue and I think then you do not let them vote on that award.

v2micca: I was talking to some friends the other day and mentioned the irony that Mike Trout won his only MVP during his down year. I then realized I was characterizing a season in which a player had amassed 7.9 fWAR as a disappointing performance.

Tyler: Have we already seen Bryce Harper’s best season? He’s still young and a stud, but how can you beat a nearly 10 WAR season. On the flip side, other than Trout, can’t Harper do it again?

Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s possible, simply because it was so crazy. It hink he’ll be fine

v2micca: The Braves strong second half has hurt their rebuild. Despite being one of the worse teams in baseball for long stretches, they will finish with the number 5 overall pick.

99: You live alone in a 5 bedroom house? No judgement here, I also live alone, but isn’t it weird having such a big house?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. I can think about having kids and then I can smile and sleep 9 hours a night.

Dan Szymborski: I AM NOT ANSWERING NICK MARKAKIS QUESTIONS

ember: do you think villar can have a similar season next year, or is this his peak?

Dan Szymborski: Put me on the best season train, but he should still have value

Logan: If you were Coppy and explored trading Freeman, what would you have to have in return to pull the trigger?

Dan Szymborski: I would need a legitimate top prospect bat. The Braves still need that.

KCH: Which SS do you like more for the future? Russell or Tim Anderson and why?

Dan Szymborski: Russell. He’s the better player right now and younger.

Matt: I’m thinking about freezing myself until pitchers and catchers report. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think we have the technology yet. You’ll just be a frozen dead guy after a couple of hours

Corb: As a Red Sox fan, I’d feel very very torn with a Red Sox-Cubs WS matchup. I have to root for my Sox, but I don’t want them to be the monsters that crush Cub dreams.

Drew: Thinking about making my own projections at some point after I learn a couple of skills and if I have as much interest as I do now. Keeping it simple, using a weighted three seasons system. What kind of weights do you recommend? I’ve seen all three years as 33% each, others 22, 33, 44% each, and 15, 35, 50. Each has strengths and weaknesses. Leaning towards middle one.

Dan Szymborski: Depends exactly how use the stats. Principal component analysis that shit out.

CamdenWarehouse: Does Weiters return to Baltimore next year? If not, who catches? Joseph pretty much took himself out of the running.

Dan Szymborski: I think in the end he does.

Grant: hey Dan, would really love to hear more blatant ESPN name drops and more about your 5 bedroom house. hmu

Dan Szymborski: ? They’re my source of income and who I write for so it’s hard for me not to mention them.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s an Ohio 5 bedroom house, it’s not like I’m in Manhattan.

Matt: Are year long retirement tours here to stay, or was it just that a handful of notable people went out around the same time?

Dan Szymborski: Here to stay

Conor: Hey Dan- I’m currently working on an undergrad thesis trying to test the effect of the qualifying offer system on player salaries and/or contract lengths. Any ideas of work that’s been done on this before? Academic stuff is preferable but blogs are ok too. Doesn’t have to be baseball specific.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not aware of any work on the subject.

Dan Szymborski: Though from a projection basis, the value of the draft pick does appear to be coming from the salary

Sean: My suggestion is that the Diamondbacks should fire TLR/DS and crowd-source the front office entirely online. How fun would that be?

Dan Szymborski: Couldn’t fail to be an improvement.

Dan Szymborski: Arizona could source it to a time machine asking 16th century people who never heard of baseball and probably be a coin flip to improve

jg: Dan, first I know you don’t work for Fangraphs and/or live inside the brain of Cameron, Sullivan, etc. brain. That said, many of the other chatters seem to say they lost the ability to really be a fan of a single team since they started working in baseball. You seem to still root for the Orioles. Are you at all less of O

Dan Szymborski: I remain an Orioles fan, but I won’t lie that my relationship with my favorite team is much different than it was 25 years ago.

Dan Szymborski: I like to see the Orioles win, but I don’t really live or die by what happens with them like some fans will. It’s become a preference more than a desire.

Dan Szymborski: And in the end, I’ll always watch the most interesting game on, whether or not it’s an O’s game.

Dan Szymborski: When I was in high school, I worked for a hardware housewares store in Towson named Stebbins-Anderson. They let us have the game radio on and customers would get into it (there were playoff years) and there was all sorts of high-fives and cheering.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll never love the O’s again as much as I did when I was 16 or when I was 6. My job essentially forces me to have a much wider view of what’s going on in baseball.

Dan Szymborski: I will never complain a job – many people would love to have it. But I can’t completely deny that there’s some chunk of my baseball passion on the fan level that has been lost.

Dan Szymborski: Not passion for baseball itself – I watch about 600 games a year very happily and I certainly don’t *need* to watch that many, but simply teh personal rooting interest angle.

Matt: I think it’s time you get with the times and change your name to Dan Szymborsnowboard

Jedidiah: What’s your read on Mike Zunino? Is he back to where he was before or somewhere in between?

Dan Szymborski: Lord, I have no idea.

Daniel C: Any thoughts on the Cardinals lousy record at home? Best road record in baseball. Luck or are they not built for their ballpark? Or is the truth somewhere in between?

Dan Szymborski: Not built for ballpark isn’t *that* big a deal. Can’t explain the gap. Mostly just chance.

Kevin: Could you see Coppy eating salary and trading Kemp to the AL? Possibly similar to the Evan Gattis trade to Houston?

Dan Szymborski: He *should*. Kemp can actually be mildly useful as a DH for a team that for some reason thinks Avi Garcia can play baseball

Bojack: Postseason uniform patches are a thing nobody asked for, right? They don’t complement teams’ jerseys and most of the time look like some NASCAR garbage.

Dan Szymborski: Yes

CamdenWarehouse: Markakis, Trump, and Clinton walk into a bar…because they were kicked out of Dan’s chat.

Page: Pretty interesting regarding Logan’s Freeman question.. What would my Red Sox have to give up to get him? Would Moncada and Kopech be enough?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so, if that’s where they want to go

Sonny: any insight into Machado’s 0 SB this year? Why such a sudden drop off?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody steals on the O’s!

Dan Szymborski: Add in the fact that Machado is super-important to the O’s offense outside of SB

Dan Szymborski: (and defense)

Dan Szymborski: has an injury history

Dan Szymborski: and mostly hits ahead of combos of Davis and Trumbo, there’s little incentive

Tyler: We hear a lot about terrible contracts from the team perspective, but what about terrible contracts from the player perspective? Salvy’s first contract extension seemed terrible for him. And I thought Jon Singleton’s would be regretful to him, but he’s been terrible.

Dan Szymborski: It happens too. I think you hear more about the bad team contracts for a few reasons

Dan Szymborski: One, the average fan tends to take the team over players in salary disputes. A lot more GREEDY PLAYER~! than GREEDY TEAM~!

Dan Szymborski: And two, you can see the effect on a big junky contract when a team gets super cautious in free agency or something

Dan Szymborski: Evan Longoria making some millions over lots and lots of millions doesn’t have the same actual effect on the team.

Dan Szymborski: Nick Markakis duck-fighting questions are still Nick Markakis questions, guys.

Alex: What do you think about the Dodgers getting younger and better at 1st base? Make a run a Freeman this offseason, offer AGon, Bellinger, and DeLeon?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think either side does that.

mike sixel: I love you referencing your ESPN work, I don’t always see it, there is so much there. Though, I could never own a 5BR house…..

Dan Szymborski: It’s OHIO. It’s not a 5br beach house.

mike sixel: Do we generally love sports as much now, as when we were 16? I don’t know that is just about your job….

Dan Szymborski: Overall yes

Jedidiah: Odds that Devin Mesoraco can get 500 ABs in a season again?

Dan Szymborski: 20-1

Dan Szymborski: I just pulled that out of my butt. The odds are not short

Jake: Do you have any issues with how the White Sox have gone about their managerial change? Seems like they were being pretty passive aggressive about the whole thing and it doesn’t feel like Robin actually had a choice. Is there any reason to believe this Front office can assume a competent rebuild or retooling ?

Dan Szymborski: I think Renteria will do a better job, but the front office is really missing that “vision thing” about where they are now

Jo-Jo Reyes: Why trade a 27 year old legitimate top bat for a legitimate top prospect bat that could one day maybe but probably won’t reach the level of the 27 year old legitimate top bat? I really don’t get all this trade Freeman talk. He’s signed through 2021, even if the Braves aren’t contenders until 2019, they’ll still have him in his prime for three more years.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s say they’re contenders in 2019. OK, they have Freeman then

Dan Szymborski: But they’re not getting that value from him in 2017 or 2018 (or in 2016)

Dan Szymborski: 6 WAR from him is essentially wasted if they’re a 65-win team. It’s like buying a Ferrari to store beer in for two years because it’ll still be a cool car in 3 years.

Matt: Real talk – Manny Machado is a Yankee in free agency.

Dan Szymborski: DO NOT HEAR YOU

GRF: Whole chat and no Indians questions. Injuries in the rotation too much for them to overcome?

Dan Szymborski: I know that people have been riding Hoynes for being negative, but it *is* a significant concern.

JT: Dan did you ever play Ultima Underworld 2? Its an old PC RPG from like 1992. Not saying tis the best game ever but its pretty fun/challenging and the world is surprisingly huge and interactive considering it was DOS based

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t actually, just the main series

bananastand: Say you were the dodgers and you thought that the giants are better than the cardinals. Would you rather have won yesterday so there would be a weaker playoff pool or would you rather lose because the giants would be a better bet to beat the cubs?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s enough either way to move the needle.

bananastand: Let’s say Puig plays a great playoffs. Is he more or less likely to be traded?

Dan Szymborski: No change.

TKDC: Can this whole “tanking” nonsense be put to bed? The Braves had clear incentive to lose their last game, but put out their best lineup and did everything they could to win. Many fans were actually upset.

The Decedent Moose: I watched Son of Zorn for the first time last night. I loved it. Are you tuning in?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t watched it yet.

Dan Szymborski: The commercials for it were terrible, but it’s an interesting concept. The Arrested Development commercials were absolutely horrific and didn’t even hint at how good the show was.

Member berries: Does Rob Zastryny have an MLB future?

Dan Szymborski: Zastryzny should stick around as a fifth starter type at least, I think.

Billy Beane: Ryon Healy is an above average starting 3B in 2017: True or False.

Dan Szymborski: I think somewhere around average. he won’t hit this well after all

Matt: I feel like youth involvement in football is shrinking due to parental concerns about safety. How long before this trickles up to the NFL and it folds?

Dan Szymborski: It would be a loooong time

Sonny: Weiss leaving in Colorado as they’re starting to get ‘team to watch in 2017’ buzz is odd right?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. I don’t think they’re team to watch in 2017.

Dan Szymborski: And there was reported dissension in the org

Sonny: here is your reminder that the Angelos have as much $$$ as anyone else and if Machado leaves don’t buy their poverty excuses. Same goes for Harper in DC

Dan Szymborski: I’m a realist.

CamdenWarehouse: Do you know any good RPGs for ipad?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t do ios

Leif Erikson: Is Galileo’s favorite song Bohemian Rhapsody? Is his/her full name Galileo Figaro Magnifico?

Dan Szymborski: Galileo will usually hang out if I’m playing classical music

Mike: It’s a BIG DEAL in the DC area that WMATA won’t be extending train hours due to all the trackwork going on in the system. Do you think it would be an embarrassment for the Nationals if the park empties in the 7th or 8th inning of a NLCS or World Series game because fans have to leave to have a ride home?

Dan Szymborski: This was the first I heard of it! That’s kinda lame

mike sixel: Son of Zorn was nigh unwatchable, imo.

Matt: Does it bother you that “short” is a longer word than “long”? Who’s the IDIOT behind that, huh?

Dan Szymborski: No, kinda like how fat guys are nicknamed slim

Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re well past 1, so let’s get the Lightning Round going.

Dan Szymborski: You know the rules, everything but excessively personal stuff, work-related things that I can’t talk about, and until after the election, politics.

Dan Szymborski: GO

Dock Ellis: Off topic: Do you think we have free will or are you a fatalist?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, really. We don’t do things randomly, though I don’t believe in fate.

Gustavo Fring: Like Fatboy Slim, right?

Matt: Did you ever attend an event thinking it was Free Baseball, only to find out it’s actually a Freebase Ball? Sounds like there is ample opportunity for confusion in such a situation.

Dan Szymborski: Freebase Ball sounds like a delightful sport.

jon: Gary Johnson climbs lots of mountains.

CamdenWarehouse: Can one get crabs in Ohio?

Dan Szymborski: I order from Obrycki’s once in a while

Dan Szymborski: And when I’m in Baltimore, I usually have a large cooler in the trunk and get a bushel iced if it’s the right time of year

Dan Szymborski: The other type of crabs? Presumably.

Matt: Have you ever thought of conducting an entire chat while speaking like a Smurf, but instead of replacing half of your words with “smurf” you used “Nick Markakis”?

Dan Szymborski: No

Concerned Citizen: Ohio? As in Indiana’s high school drop out older brother who still works at the gas station Ohio?

JT: The NFL is a socialist paradise and the most popular sport in the US.

Gustavo Fring: Right about now! The funk soul brotha’, check it out

Tyler: Busch, Coors, and Miller. Rank the beers AND the stadiums

Dan Szymborski: Coors, Miller, new Busch. Yes, those beers are rank

mijo: Are bitcoins going to be a viable source of currency in 25 years

Dan Szymborski: No

Matt: If you lead a crime ring, would you call it the Onion Ring?

Dan Szymborski: No. You should not name a crime ring, it makes it easier for an organizational structure to be examined!

Dan Szymborski: My crime ring would be shady and nebulous.

Northsider: I downgraded to 0 bedrooms when my gf moved in…

jon: The NFL has less parity than MLB. Socialist paradise in the USSR soviet paradise sense.

Matt: “I sure do love Nick Markakis-berry pie” – Dan , speaking in markakis-smufanese

mike sixel: Do you have “pictures” in your head for regular participants? Do you wonder why we aren’t really working? Do you think about us at all 🙂

Dan Szymborski: I assume that you’re all AI programs made by Apples.

Mr. Bean: Coffee or no coffee?

Dan Szymborski: Not into coffee

The Decedent Moose: Is Carson Cistuli a part or the cause of said crime ring?

Dan Szymborski: Carson would obviously be one of our first victims.

Ryan: Anyone else worried Bork didn’t show up today?

Dan Szymborski: OK, caught up and near 130

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for comign everyone!

Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com, peruse chats and projects here at FanGraphs, and be super-annoyed by me at DSzymborski on Twitter.