Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/5/15
11:59 |
: Welcome to this sadly play-in tiebreaker-less Monday
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11:59 |
In the least surprising news of the day: Matt Williams is officially a free agent. |
12:00 |
Did you think it was dumb for the Jays to basically sacrifice HFA? Or does that not really matter in the long run? |
12:01 |
: I don’t think they should have here – while in most situations, I think you be nice to a guy like Buehrle and give him a chance to get the milestone on his way out
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12:02 |
: And yeah, it’s small cost – the Win% change between giving Buehrle 2 IP and not times the % KC and Toronto both make it past the first round times the % that playoff series goes to 7 games.
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12:04 |
Would you agree that the typical NFL coach knows less about managing a football game than Matt Williams/Brad Ausmus know about managing a baseball game? how the #$#$# do these guys not understand that punting on 4th and 1 in enemy territory when you’re trailing is not a horrendous strategy? |
12:04 |
: I would not. I think this is just a particular tactical decision that’s not frequently evaluated well.
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12:04 |
: NFL plays are more tactical than MLB
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12:05 |
: When it comes to it, MLB is more of a grand strategy game over a season – MLB in-game tactical decisions really are quite limited relative to other sports.
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12:06 |
The Phillies clinched the worst record in baseball while also NOT losing 100 games. On what date in 2016 should they hold the flag-raising ceremony? |
12:06 |
: Draft day?
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12:06 |
Which active player is most likely to be a manager widely mocked for his bad tactical moves in five years and why is it Torii Hunter? |
12:06 |
: Heh, I can totally see Hunter
|
12:06 |
: But more likely, I think it will be some mediocre catcher
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12:07 |
: I dunno, Drew Butera?
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12:07 |
please help me get through all the terrible trade rumors this offseason when the front office has said about 50 times I’m completely completely untouchable |
12:07 |
: Everybody’s got a price.
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12:08 |
Who does KC match up with better? NYY or Houston? |
12:08 |
: Yankees. I rather face the Yankee pitchers after Tanaka than the Astro pitchers after Keuchel.
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12:09 |
Have you seen the stories about the A’s clubhouse issues? That’s gotta be Butler, right? Poor work ethic and put on a lot of weight during the season. |
12:09 |
: I think it’s overblown – if the A’s were 94-68 instead of 68-94, everybody would be a lot happier.
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12:09 |
Hi Dan, |
12:10 |
: Hi!
|
12:10 |
In a Keeper League and torn against whim I should keep (limited to two players at their original draft slot; pickups from the free agent waiver wire jump up 4 spots from 28th rd every year they are kept): |
12:11 |
: I don’t know who you have and it’s hard to answer a question involving a non-standard league design on the fly – I don’t think I’d have much insight this quickly
|
12:11 |
So, the A’s are apparently targeting ‘veteran clubhouse presence’ this offseason. How about Ichiro as the 4th OF? Bring him back to the AL West and let him collect #3,000 in the green and gold? |
12:11 |
: Yuck.
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12:12 |
: Giving 2016 Ichiro the 300 or so AB he needs to get 3,000 is a serious black mark on that manager/GM’s performance record.
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12:13 |
As a Cubs fan, I don’t mind that they have to play Pittsburgh in a one game wild card (the Cardinals did win the division), but I am upset that they get to pick in the next draft after five of the division winners. The draft order is what needs to be fixed, not the post season. |
12:13 |
: Not a bad idea.
|
12:13 |
Wild Card predictions? Mass media seems to love the Cubs against the Pirates. |
12:13 |
: Cubs, but it’s a coin flip – both are excellent teams
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12:13 |
Is there any chance that Chris Davis’s next contract doesn’t turn into a disaster? Obviously we don’t know where/how much he’ll sign for but this is a genre of player (three-true-outcome over 30 slugger) that basically never gets unpaid. |
12:13 |
: I expect it will be.
|
12:13 |
C’mon Dan, you KNOW I’m gonna be a play-by-the-book bunt-a-holic manager in 5 years |
12:13 |
With deGrom’s slider disappearing and Kershaw and Greinke existing, is the safe bet for LA to head east up 2-0? |
12:14 |
: I think the Dodgers are favored by a solid margin, simply because the playoff format tends to give a boost to teams with a Kershaw/Greinke top of the rotation.
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12:15 |
: Simply because Greinke/Kershaw are simply going to get a much higher percentage of innings in any playoff series than in regular season
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12:15 |
Would you be surprised if the 2016 AL West standings end up being the complete inverse of this year? Astros in 4th seems like the only dubious prediction of an inverse 2016. |
12:16 |
: I don’t think Oakland-Seattle will be 1-2
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12:16 |
The final Baseruns standings show the Nationals actually were a better team this year by Baseruns than the Cardinals. What do I make of that, other than Cardinals are very lucky? |
12:17 |
: I don’t really use BaseRuns for anything so I’m the wrong guy to ask for insight.
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12:17 |
How long will Buctober officially last? |
12:17 |
: They have a good shot. The coin flip wild card hurts, but they match up with anybody in baseball
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12:18 |
Travis Snider vs Ichiro as a 4th OFer? |
12:18 |
: Snider and that’s damning with faint praise
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12:18 |
mostly a joke, but you you be interested as Ichiro as PH/5th OF/mop up pitcher for something close to the minimum? |
12:18 |
: I’d actually be more interested in him as a pitcher than a position player
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12:19 |
: Ichiro the position player is done. He probably wouldn’t be a good pitcher, but at least that’s interesting.
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12:20 |
: I mean he had the surprise factor – nobody scouted against him as a pitcher
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12:20 |
: If he were willing to go to AAA as a reliever in 2016? I may be slightly interested – minors are the place for crazy experimentation
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12:20 |
The Cubs broadcasters debating the color of the the Brewers’ jerseys is second only to Lee Judge’s “you should only strangle players in the tunnel”article in MLB insight. |
12:21 |
: But see, those are the kind of stupid arguments I like
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12:22 |
Which team in the playoffs is best designed to play in their home park? |
12:23 |
: I’d actually say the Yankees. They have lefthanded power and one of the more groundball heavy pitching staffs in the league
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12:23 |
Predict the unpredictable: what’s Steve Pearce’s next contract look like? He and Rich Hill seem like the most idiosyncratic free agents with the widest range of possible outcomes in years. |
12:23 |
: I dont’ think anyone goes crazy on Pearce
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12:24 |
: Hill’s always had a pretty neat curve
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12:25 |
: Cool, I hadn’t seen that
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12:27 |
Tetsuto Yamada is a 23 year old infielder who just finished the NPB season with a 1.000+ OPS. Will we see him in MLB soon? Or is this the type of guy who will always have more value in Japan as a guaranteed star than in the US as a risky prospect? |
12:27 |
: I think if he’s willing, an MLB team would be highly interested in him
|
12:27 |
: Plate approach, he kinda fits the MLB mold
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12:28 |
Which team is gonna give Ichiro the 300 AB he needs to reach 3000? My money is on Cincy |
12:28 |
: I can see Cincy doing it becuase Cincy’s rather poorly run nowadays
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12:28 |
Tell Eli the A’s can have Allen Craig |
12:28 |
I wasn’t sure we’d see another 300 K season. Kershaw is unbelievable. Do you think he’s on the same level as Pedro or is he still just a tick below? |
12:29 |
: He’s on that level because he’s crazy good
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12:29 |
Strategy idea for Cubs: when Jake Arrieta warms up, have the Jaws music play. |
12:29 |
: Or just play the Beethoven Arietta from Op. 111.
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12:30 |
Whatt should The Pirates approach be in order to beat Arrieta? |
12:30 |
: Seeing Arrieta this year, I don’t think there really is a good approach
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12:32 |
: It’s a bit like asking which approach the Belgians and Gamelin/Weygand should have taken to defeat the Germans.
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12:32 |
If the Cubs advance, who do you like in the Cards/Cubs series? |
12:32 |
: Pure coin fip
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12:32 |
Orioles: not at all, somewhat, or monumentally screwed? |
12:32 |
: Monumentally.
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12:33 |
: In the AL East, they will essentially have the 4th-ranked payroll coupled with the 5th-best farm system.
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12:33 |
: People say “Hey, they’re freeing up $32 million that they paid to guys that are FAs”
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12:34 |
: As if you don’t have to replace their performance. That wasn’t $32 million sunk into, say, Ryan Howard.
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12:35 |
: let’s say they increase their payroll to $140 million, which they won’t
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12:35 |
last I checked) |
12:36 |
: But without those 2015 players, they’re like a 72-win team with $55 million to spend
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12:37 |
: How do they get the 15-18 wins with $55 million?
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12:37 |
: It’s not coming from the farm system.
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12:37 |
: And it’s hard to get that many bargains in free agency
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12:37 |
: And you can only play so many guys – it’s not like the O’s can make up that ground by signing 9 2-win players for the price of 1-win players
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12:38 |
: They have to sign 6-win players for the price of 3-win players, and that’s far easier said than done
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12:38 |
Given the supposed tension between Showalter and Duquette, would it make sense for the Orioles to try and trade Showalter to the Nationals? O’s organization could likely get a king’s ransom given how eager Nats seem to put managerial chaos behind them. |
12:38 |
: I would certainly explore it, especially if I cannot extend Machado this winter
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12:38 |
A team dramatically underperforming their baseruns is exactly what you’d expect for a famously badly managed team like the Nationals, right? |
12:38 |
: Yes, but I’d have to dig through the methodology to give better answers.
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12:39 |
: I literally get like 15 seconds to think in a chat like this and I’m not a genius guy who can turnaround non-dumb answers that quickly
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12:39 |
Am I the first to coin the phrase “Cubtober?” Printing T-Shirts now…. |
12:39 |
: Rule of life: everything that can be thought of was also thought of already
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12:39 |
Just wait! In five years I’ll be the grittiest manager in baseball. Start weeping now Mariners fans. |
12:39 |
If you are the DD what is your max offer to Davis? 5 & $130 mil? And he smells like an Astro signing this offseason. |
12:39 |
: I don’t think I can go that high on Davis
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12:40 |
: Remember the theorycrafting a few minutes ago? That’s already more than half the money available and now the team is at 76 wins instead of 72
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12:41 |
Since we’re asking everyone, who is your NL CY Young pick? |
12:41 |
: That’s a crazy tough one as the answer is not clear and the WARs don’t clarify it well either as BR and FG give opposite answers
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12:42 |
: As a tiebreaker, I think I go with Arrieta simply because the average Cub game had more leverage
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12:43 |
: I wouldn’t normally evaluate like that, but when you’ve got a tie, you end up going to the style points
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12:44 |
just looking for a completely random guess. The winning bid for B. H. Park will be how much and who submits it? |
12:44 |
: I think after Kang’s success, someone will be willing to give him $10
|
12:44 |
: a year
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12:44 |
: Kinda like how the success of Cubans raised those prices
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12:44 |
Stroman (keep 3 seasons) or Kluber (keep 1 season) for my last keeper? |
12:44 |
: Stroman for 3. I like Kluber, but I like 3 years
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12:44 |
Can’t we just all agree to make an exception this one year and have a Cubs-Pirates World Series? |
12:44 |
: heh
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12:44 |
so you’re just like no fun at all |
12:45 |
: Letting someone who can no longer really play major league baseball go after a personal record isn’t something that interests me
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12:45 |
: Ichiro has a worse MLB career if he gets hit 3000 than if he stops at 2935
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12:46 |
: He’s not chasing a ring, he’s chasing a *round number*
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12:46 |
: He’s essentially playing *for* a stat.
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12:46 |
: I use a lot of stats because what they mean to winning games. But divorced from that, you’re simply chasing numbers for the sake of numbers
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12:46 |
Why doesn’t Fangraphs show a player’s WAR per month in the splits page? |
12:46 |
: Ask a david
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12:47 |
: This is my weekly reminder that I’m like the worst person to ask FanGraphs specific questions to
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12:48 |
: FanGraphs is awesome, but as a non-employee, I don’t have any particular insight into FanGraphs site decisions, so you have to ask the people that do!
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12:48 |
Which division leader are you most surprised by? Least surprised by? |
12:48 |
: Mets, Dodgers
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12:48 |
Dan, who’s going to win everything? |
12:48 |
: I think Jays
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12:48 |
: Though since you’re asking me, I see very slim prob differences among the teams
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12:48 |
Lefty-heavy Yanks are in trouble against Keuchel. |
12:48 |
: Well, the question was about the team and the park.
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12:48 |
Kris Bryant finished the season #1 in MLB in Jersey sales. Who was the last rookie to accomplish this feat? |
12:49 |
: While I don’t have the data, I would *guess* Ichiro?
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12:49 |
For ATL, is AJ Pierzynski a good stop gap at C for the braves in 2016 or should they look for a long-term solution? I don’t see them being very competitive next year. |
12:49 |
: I don’t think it makes that much sense – try to find *any* catcher with *any* chance of a future
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12:49 |
Do you have championship banners printed that you can hang from your ceiling like a sports team when Zips wins a season? |
12:50 |
: No, I’m not very braggy
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12:50 |
also, you do drape a tarp over your workstation and then spray the room with booze and smoke a cigar? |
12:50 |
: sounds like a fire hazard
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12:50 |
Re: Steve Pearce, there’s not a team out there that will look at him as a guy who hit 36 HR with 5+ WAR in his last 700 PAs that can play multiple positions well and offer him like 2/24 or 3/30? Only takes one team to see him as that guy, even if they’re wrong. |
12:51 |
: I don’t think a team offers him anywhere near that much
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12:51 |
Really? You’d rather face Pineda/Severino than Kazmir/McHugh? |
12:51 |
: Slightly
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12:51 |
Do you know bofa? |
12:51 |
: Bank of America?
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12:52 |
Chances the Rangers can sequence their way to winning the ALDS? I’m a big Rangers fan, and I say 30% |
12:52 |
: I don’t think anybody’s a 30/70 underdog in a playoff series.
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12:52 |
Say the Cubs break out for five runs in the first inning of the WC game. How much consideration do you give to yanking Arrieta and going straight to a bullpen game so that he can pitch twice in the NLDS? |
12:52 |
: I absolutely would
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12:52 |
Considering how much more prevalent strikeouts have become over the past few years, why was Kershaw getting 300 K so rare? Shouldn’t this be happening more frequently? |
12:52 |
: Well, fewer innings than the old days
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12:53 |
: At 220 innings, you need a 12.3 K/9
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12:53 |
: So you need to throw more – even Kershaw didn’t hit 12
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12:54 |
You’re the GM of an MLB team. You have a chance to sign one of two players to a 4-year contract, same terms. Player A will produce 2.0 WAR in each of the 4 years. Player B will produce 4.0 WAR in two of the years, 0.0 WAR in the other two years. Given that foreknowledge, which player do you sign? |
12:54 |
: Do I get to know what years they do it in?
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12:55 |
: Honestly, it depends on the makeup of my team and my team goals
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12:55 |
If the Cubs lose the WC game/ a playoff series, what will their excuse be this time? |
12:55 |
: Why do you need an excuse? Every game has a team that ends up winning and a team that doesn’t
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12:55 |
would you touch a poo for $20? |
12:55 |
: Depends on whose it is
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12:55 |
What do you make of Shin-Soo Choo’s last month+ of this season? Something he’s capable of repeating in 2016 if healthy, or simply a smallish sample size mirage? |
12:56 |
: Wait and see. That he salvaged his season was really good news for the Rangers
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12:56 |
I looked at Swydan’s article after I made the Kershaw post and saw that he is 3 whole wins below Pedro’s 1999 season. He’s easily the best pitcher since, but I think he’s definitely a notch below Pedro. |
12:56 |
: It depends if we’r edefinining peak as *a* season or as a longer more sustained peak
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12:56 |
: Even Everest’s peak isn’t a single sharp point
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12:56 |
Logically, this offseason is when the Astros need to start spending money, right? They’ve got Correa, Keuchel, Springer, etc. under minimum salary deals – overpay for Price or someone now that your window is open |
12:56 |
: I think there’s a good argument for them
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12:57 |
Given that O’s are “monumentally” screwed, should they just teardown and sell off Jones/Machado to refill the farm? Jones has made it clear he doesn’t want to spend his prime on a rebuilding franchise and Machado will be approaching free agency by the time a rebuild starts to bear fruit. Same logic goes for Tillman if another team is actually interested in him. |
12:57 |
: I would try to extend Machado before I commit to a rebuild
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12:57 |
: But if I have no real hope of extending Machado, then I rebuild
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12:57 |
: Essentially, the O’s have no reinforcements
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12:58 |
: There are no reserves
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12:59 |
: O’s need a farm or a lot of money and I dont’ think they actually have either
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12:59 |
: Since I already reference Gamelin earlier
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1:00 |
: When Churchill asked Gamelin where the latter’s reserves were during the conquest of France, Gamelin shrugged and replied that there were no reserves
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1:00 |
am i getting extended or traded |
1:00 |
: I expect traded
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1:00 |
Would you rather be the Cubs or the Red Sox for the next five years? That farm system is drool-worthy. |
1:00 |
: Cubs I think even though I like both teams futures
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1:00 |
Is Scherzer’s first season with the Nats a bit of a disappointment? Great overall numbers, but he fell apart in August, and to lesser extent, July. |
1:01 |
: You are a greedy greedy man
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1:01 |
What does AJ Preller do now for an encore? All-in again, tweak, or blow it up? |
1:01 |
: From the trade deadline, the Padres seem crushed by inertia
|
1:01 |
is 1.66 and 1.77 really that big a gap in grienke and arrieta’s eras? |
1:01 |
: No
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1:01 |
What do you think about Granderson going forward? He had a pretty quiet 5 win season. |
1:01 |
: Decline still
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1:01 |
Have you announced dates for the 2015 ZiPS Apology World Tour (sorry, but I promise ZiPS doesn’t hate your team)? |
1:01 |
: Since I don’t do Gloating Tours, I don’t do Apology Tours
|
1:02 |
: ZiPS is always the best I can make it. In the end, it’s a bunch of computer algorithms.
|
1:02 |
: I’m not going to apologize for my best effort.
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1:02 |
Conforto should be playing over Cuddyer even against lefties, right? Is this as bad as it looks? |
1:02 |
: Let Conforto play during the 162 game-days and give Cuddyer the larger portion of the platoon, the 203 non game-days.
|
1:03 |
It’s possible to get 15 wins with about 55 million. Just guessing, but the additions of burnett, Liriano, Kang and Cervelli were probably in the ballpark of 15-18 wins and less than 55 million |
1:03 |
: But that’s easier said than done
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1:03 |
: That all of these things worked out, and mostly well, doesn’t mean that they were fated to at the time
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1:04 |
In mid September, Bryce Harper said of Matt Williams, “I love him as a manager.” Was that genuine, or a shrewd political move to seem like a team player, knowing full well Williams would be canned? |
1:04 |
: There’s no benefit to complaining about your manager to the media
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1:04 |
Am I wrong in thinking the Phlllies GM job is absolutely plum? Good ballpark, good farm system, big TV contracts, bad contracts ending in 2 years, and low initial expectations. What’s not to like? |
1:04 |
: It’s a good job, though not an elite one as I’d still be unsure as to the patience of my bosses
|
1:05 |
You going to read “Superforecating” by Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner? Just came out. Tetlock is the guru who published “Expert Political Judgment” and ran a cool 20-year study on expert forecasting. Gardner is the guy who makes it readable, I assume (given Tetlock’s previously impenetrable-to-the-layman writing). It’s great. I think anyone who appreciates SABR thinking would be interested. |
1:05 |
: I’ll have to check it out
|
1:05 |
Scherzer’s final 2015 numbers: 228.2 innings pitched, 276 strikeouts, 34 walks, 176 hits, a 2.79 ERA, and a 2.77 FIP. Oh, and two no-hitters Chance of winning a Cy Young: 0.00% |
1:06 |
When does the NL CY Young voting occur? Now, or after Arrieta buries the Pirates in his backyard? |
1:06 |
: BBWAA awards are voted on before the postseason starrts
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1:06 |
What has a larger effect on the offense in Coors – balls flying farther or breaking balls breaking less? |
1:06 |
: Both important but I think it’s still the balls flying farther
|
1:06 |
is there a hearthstone to ichiro comparison you can make |
1:07 |
: Argent Commander. Was an awesome card awhile ago, but it’s poor in constructed against cards that have been released since
|
1:08 |
: The same thing happened to Cairne Bloodhoof. Dealing 5 is crucial at that mana cost
|
1:09 |
: Because you’re now going up against Loatheb and Sludge Belcher and Emperor Thaurissan
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1:09 |
Dan, why does fangraphs use so much green in the color scheme? |
1:09 |
: They like green/
|
1:09 |
What playoff teams to you are most likely to be repeat playoff contenders for the next 3 years? |
1:09 |
: All the NL teams. AL outlook a little foggier
|
1:09 |
The Nats considering Cal Ripken to replace Williams… has to be the worst possible choice they could make? Didn’t they already try hiring a great player (though not Ripken great) with no coaching experience? |
1:10 |
: Ripken strike me as too low-key to manage a clubhouse of A personalities
|
1:10 |
![]() teammates love me |
1:10 |
Getting Wainwright to use as a wipeout reliever just in time for the playoffs is not fair. |
1:11 |
: Maybe, but I’d prefer to have Carlos Martinez as a starter over Wainwright as a reliever, given the choice
|
1:11 |
How surprised were you that A-Rod a) had a productive year, and b) was absolutely quiet otherwise? |
1:11 |
: Fairly
|
1:11 |
In ____ years we’ll look back at Kershaw not winning this year’s NL CY and be embarrassed. |
1:12 |
: I don’t think they will, because neither Greinke nor Arrieta over Kershaw is an embarrassing difference, even if you think Kershaw should get it
|
1:12 |
Please come up with an excuse as to why a team would lose one single game, bonus points if that game is against arguably the best team in baseball running out a top-flight ace. |
1:12 |
: Cloud formation.
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1:12 |
I’ve got two children, and have changed my share of diapers. Where can I go to get my $20 ? |
1:12 |
Off the top of your head, what does shipping Machado get you? Moncada/Devers/Owens? More? |
1:12 | : |
1:12 |
Other than the Orioles, can you name one or two other teams pretty screwed for next year? Cincy or the Padres maybe? |
1:13 |
: Orioles, Rockies, Reds, Marlins
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1:13 |
Do you see the Nationals rebounding next year? A lot of their issues was guys underperforming and injuries. I wouldn’t count them out for 2016. |
1:13 |
: I think they’ll be fine next year and the new manager will get an unfairly large amount of credit for it
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1:13 |
: OK, getting towards 1:15 and I have some appointments – any last chance off-topic Qs?
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1:14 |
: (post-August chats are slow enough that we don’t need an official Lightning Round until the postseason gets going)
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1:14 |
More embarrasing for the BBWA: Matt Williams’ 2014 manager of the year or Raffy Palmeiro’s 1999 gold glove? |
1:14 |
: At least he actually managed more than 20 games
|
1:14 |
Have you played Battle Brothers? Still very unfinished in early access but seems like they have a solid foundation for a fun game once it’s filled out with more content. |
1:14 |
: I have not
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1:15 |
So, CC Sabathia is checking into rehab for alchoholism. Is this a thing people knew about? |
1:15 |
: I would guess some writers had a suspicion, but I ignore players private lives.
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1:15 |
Ken Rosenthal wrote: #Yankees release statement from CC Sabathia saying that he is checking himself into alcohol rehabilitation center. |
1:15 |
: If someone’s gossiping about a player off the field, I tend to stop listening
|
1:16 |
How disappointed were you that A-Rod never owned being a heel? |
1:16 |
: Extremely
|
1:17 |
King’s Quest is great and you should try it if you haven’t already! This is not a question; sorry 🙁 |
1:17 |
: I’m probably waiting for the whole set
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1:17 |
Do you play starcraft 2? |
1:17 |
: No
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1:17 |
ESPN.com, catch chats and projections and FanGraphs, and find me on Twitter.
: On that note, I have to scram. Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, you can read my work at |
1:18 |
: At DSzymborski
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Hey Congrats!
http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/all-hail-zips-and-steamer