Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/5/15

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Welcome to this sadly play-in tiebreaker-less Monday

11:59
Comment From HappyFunBall
In the least surprising news of the day: Matt Williams is officially a free agent.

12:00
Comment From Mike
Did you think it was dumb for the Jays to basically sacrifice HFA? Or does that not really matter in the long run?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they should have here – while in most situations, I think you be nice to a guy like Buehrle and give him a chance to get the milestone on his way out

12:02
Dan Szymborski: And yeah, it’s small cost – the Win% change between giving Buehrle 2 IP and not times the % KC and Toronto both make it past the first round times the % that playoff series goes to 7 games.

12:04
Comment From Jeff
Would you agree that the typical NFL coach knows less about managing a football game than Matt Williams/Brad Ausmus know about managing a baseball game? how the #$#$# do these guys not understand that punting on 4th and 1 in enemy territory when you’re trailing is not a horrendous strategy?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: I would not. I think this is just a particular tactical decision that’s not frequently evaluated well.

12:04
Dan Szymborski: NFL plays are more tactical than MLB

12:05
Dan Szymborski: When it comes to it, MLB is more of a grand strategy game over a season – MLB in-game tactical decisions really are quite limited relative to other sports.

12:06
Comment From Phillies113
The Phillies clinched the worst record in baseball while also NOT losing 100 games. On what date in 2016 should they hold the flag-raising ceremony?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Draft day?

12:06
Comment From mtsw
Which active player is most likely to be a manager widely mocked for his bad tactical moves in five years and why is it Torii Hunter?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Heh, I can totally see Hunter

12:06
Dan Szymborski: But more likely, I think it will be some mediocre catcher

12:07
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, Drew Butera?

12:07
Comment From Sonny Gray
please help me get through all the terrible trade rumors this offseason when the front office has said about 50 times I’m completely completely untouchable

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Everybody’s got a price.

12:08
Comment From LoCain is a hell of a drug
Who does KC match up with better? NYY or Houston?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Yankees. I rather face the Yankee pitchers after Tanaka than the Astro pitchers after Keuchel.

12:09
Comment From Bob Melvin
Have you seen the stories about the A’s clubhouse issues? That’s gotta be Butler, right? Poor work ethic and put on a lot of weight during the season.

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s overblown – if the A’s were 94-68 instead of 68-94, everybody would be a lot happier.

12:09
Comment From George Costanza
Hi Dan,

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Hi!

12:10
Comment From George Costanza
In a Keeper League and torn against whim I should keep (limited to two players at their original draft slot; pickups from the free agent waiver wire jump up 4 spots from 28th rd every year they are kept):

12:11
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know who you have and it’s hard to answer a question involving a non-standard league design on the fly – I don’t think I’d have much insight this quickly

12:11
Comment From Eli
So, the A’s are apparently targeting ‘veteran clubhouse presence’ this offseason. How about Ichiro as the 4th OF? Bring him back to the AL West and let him collect #3,000 in the green and gold?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Yuck.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: Giving 2016 Ichiro the 300 or so AB he needs to get 3,000 is a serious black mark on that manager/GM’s performance record.

12:13
Comment From Jason
As a Cubs fan, I don’t mind that they have to play Pittsburgh in a one game wild card (the Cardinals did win the division), but I am upset that they get to pick in the next draft after five of the division winners. The draft order is what needs to be fixed, not the post season.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Not a bad idea.

12:13
Comment From Los
Wild Card predictions? Mass media seems to love the Cubs against the Pirates.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Cubs, but it’s a coin flip – both are excellent teams

12:13
Comment From mtsw
Is there any chance that Chris Davis’s next contract doesn’t turn into a disaster? Obviously we don’t know where/how much he’ll sign for but this is a genre of player (three-true-outcome over 30 slugger) that basically never gets unpaid.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: I expect it will be.

12:13
Comment From Chris Stewart
C’mon Dan, you KNOW I’m gonna be a play-by-the-book bunt-a-holic manager in 5 years

12:13
Comment From Taylor
With deGrom’s slider disappearing and Kershaw and Greinke existing, is the safe bet for LA to head east up 2-0?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: I think the Dodgers are favored by a solid margin, simply because the playoff format tends to give a boost to teams with a Kershaw/Greinke top of the rotation.

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Simply because Greinke/Kershaw are simply going to get a much higher percentage of innings in any playoff series than in regular season

12:15
Comment From Christian
Would you be surprised if the 2016 AL West standings end up being the complete inverse of this year? Astros in 4th seems like the only dubious prediction of an inverse 2016.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Oakland-Seattle will be 1-2

12:16
Comment From Zonk
The final Baseruns standings show the Nationals actually were a better team this year by Baseruns than the Cardinals. What do I make of that, other than Cardinals are very lucky?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: I don’t really use BaseRuns for anything so I’m the wrong guy to ask for insight.

12:17
Comment From Buctober 2015
How long will Buctober officially last?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: They have a good shot. The coin flip wild card hurts, but they match up with anybody in baseball

12:18
Comment From Buctober 2015
Travis Snider vs Ichiro as a 4th OFer?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: Snider and that’s damning with faint praise

12:18
Comment From Blue Cat
mostly a joke, but you you be interested as Ichiro as PH/5th OF/mop up pitcher for something close to the minimum?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: I’d actually be more interested in him as a pitcher than a position player

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Ichiro the position player is done. He probably wouldn’t be a good pitcher, but at least that’s interesting.

12:20
Dan Szymborski: I mean he had the surprise factor – nobody scouted against him as a pitcher

12:20
Dan Szymborski: If he were willing to go to AAA as a reliever in 2016? I may be slightly interested – minors are the place for crazy experimentation

12:20
Comment From The+Dude
The Cubs broadcasters debating the color of the the Brewers’ jerseys is second only to Lee Judge’s “you should only strangle players in the tunnel”article in MLB insight.

12:21
Dan Szymborski: But see, those are the kind of stupid arguments I like

12:22
Comment From Mike
Which team in the playoffs is best designed to play in their home park?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I’d actually say the Yankees. They have lefthanded power and one of the more groundball heavy pitching staffs in the league

12:23
Comment From mtsw
Predict the unpredictable: what’s Steve Pearce’s next contract look like? He and Rich Hill seem like the most idiosyncratic free agents with the widest range of possible outcomes in years.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think anyone goes crazy on Pearce

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Hill’s always had a pretty neat curve

12:25
Comment From Mooser
http://tangotiger.com/index…

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Cool, I hadn’t seen that

12:27
Comment From mtsw
Tetsuto Yamada is a 23 year old infielder who just finished the NPB season with a 1.000+ OPS. Will we see him in MLB soon? Or is this the type of guy who will always have more value in Japan as a guaranteed star than in the US as a risky prospect?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I think if he’s willing, an MLB team would be highly interested in him

12:27
Dan Szymborski: Plate approach, he kinda fits the MLB mold

12:28
Comment From Tom
Which team is gonna give Ichiro the 300 AB he needs to reach 3000? My money is on Cincy

12:28
Dan Szymborski: I can see Cincy doing it becuase Cincy’s rather poorly run nowadays

12:28
Comment From Doug
Tell Eli the A’s can have Allen Craig

12:28
Comment From Marcus Banks
I wasn’t sure we’d see another 300 K season. Kershaw is unbelievable. Do you think he’s on the same level as Pedro or is he still just a tick below?

12:29
Dan Szymborski: He’s on that level because he’s crazy good

12:29
Comment From The+Dude
Strategy idea for Cubs: when Jake Arrieta warms up, have the Jaws music play.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: Or just play the Beethoven Arietta from Op. 111.

12:30
Comment From Buctober 2015
Whatt should The Pirates approach be in order to beat Arrieta?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: Seeing Arrieta this year, I don’t think there really is a good approach

12:32
Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit like asking which approach the Belgians and Gamelin/Weygand should have taken to defeat the Germans.

12:32
Comment From Zonk
If the Cubs advance, who do you like in the Cards/Cubs series?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Pure coin fip

12:32
Comment From Joe
Orioles: not at all, somewhat, or monumentally screwed?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Monumentally.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: In the AL East, they will essentially have the 4th-ranked payroll coupled with the 5th-best farm system.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: People say “Hey, they’re freeing up $32 million that they paid to guys that are FAs”

12:34
Dan Szymborski: As if you don’t have to replace their performance. That wasn’t $32 million sunk into, say, Ryan Howard.

12:35
Dan Szymborski: let’s say they increase their payroll to $140 million, which they won’t

12:35
Dan Szymborski: That’s $55 million they have to play with (BR had them, with options and arb, at about $85 million right now for 2016
last I checked)

12:36
Dan Szymborski: But without those 2015 players, they’re like a 72-win team with $55 million to spend

12:37
Dan Szymborski: How do they get the 15-18 wins with $55 million?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: It’s not coming from the farm system.

12:37
Dan Szymborski: And it’s hard to get that many bargains in free agency

12:37
Dan Szymborski: And you can only play so many guys – it’s not like the O’s can make up that ground by signing 9 2-win players for the price of 1-win players

12:38
Dan Szymborski: They have to sign 6-win players for the price of 3-win players, and that’s far easier said than done

12:38
Comment From mtsw
Given the supposed tension between Showalter and Duquette, would it make sense for the Orioles to try and trade Showalter to the Nationals? O’s organization could likely get a king’s ransom given how eager Nats seem to put managerial chaos behind them.

12:38
Dan Szymborski: I would certainly explore it, especially if I cannot extend Machado this winter

12:38
Comment From mtsw
A team dramatically underperforming their baseruns is exactly what you’d expect for a famously badly managed team like the Nationals, right?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Yes, but I’d have to dig through the methodology to give better answers.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: I literally get like 15 seconds to think in a chat like this and I’m not a genius guy who can turnaround non-dumb answers that quickly

12:39
Comment From Q-Ball
Am I the first to coin the phrase “Cubtober?” Printing T-Shirts now….

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Rule of life: everything that can be thought of was also thought of already

12:39
Comment From Willie Bloomquist
Just wait! In five years I’ll be the grittiest manager in baseball. Start weeping now Mariners fans.

12:39
Comment From HVC
If you are the DD what is your max offer to Davis? 5 & $130 mil? And he smells like an Astro signing this offseason.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I can go that high on Davis

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Remember the theorycrafting a few minutes ago? That’s already more than half the money available and now the team is at 76 wins instead of 72

12:41
Comment From Zonk
Since we’re asking everyone, who is your NL CY Young pick?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: That’s a crazy tough one as the answer is not clear and the WARs don’t clarify it well either as BR and FG give opposite answers

12:42
Dan Szymborski: As a tiebreaker, I think I go with Arrieta simply because the average Cub game had more leverage

12:43
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t normally evaluate like that, but when you’ve got a tie, you end up going to the style points

12:44
Comment From Buctober 2015
just looking for a completely random guess. The winning bid for B. H. Park will be how much and who submits it?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: I think after Kang’s success, someone will be willing to give him $10

12:44
Dan Szymborski: a year

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Kinda like how the success of Cubans raised those prices

12:44
Comment From Gart
Stroman (keep 3 seasons) or Kluber (keep 1 season) for my last keeper?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Stroman for 3. I like Kluber, but I like 3 years

12:44
Comment From MeowMix
Can’t we just all agree to make an exception this one year and have a Cubs-Pirates World Series?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: heh

12:44
Comment From Ichiro
so you’re just like no fun at all

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Letting someone who can no longer really play major league baseball go after a personal record isn’t something that interests me

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Ichiro has a worse MLB career if he gets hit 3000 than if he stops at 2935

12:46
Dan Szymborski: He’s not chasing a ring, he’s chasing a *round number*

12:46
Dan Szymborski: He’s essentially playing *for* a stat.

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I use a lot of stats because what they mean to winning games. But divorced from that, you’re simply chasing numbers for the sake of numbers

12:46
Comment From The+Dude
Why doesn’t Fangraphs show a player’s WAR per month in the splits page?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Ask a david

12:47
Dan Szymborski: This is my weekly reminder that I’m like the worst person to ask FanGraphs specific questions to

12:48
Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs is awesome, but as a non-employee, I don’t have any particular insight into FanGraphs site decisions, so you have to ask the people that do!

12:48
Comment From Sirras
Which division leader are you most surprised by? Least surprised by?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Mets, Dodgers

12:48
Comment From Phillies113
Dan, who’s going to win everything?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: I think Jays

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Though since you’re asking me, I see very slim prob differences among the teams

12:48
Comment From Marcus Banks
Lefty-heavy Yanks are in trouble against Keuchel.

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Well, the question was about the team and the park.

12:48
Comment From Q-Ball
Kris Bryant finished the season #1 in MLB in Jersey sales. Who was the last rookie to accomplish this feat?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: While I don’t have the data, I would *guess* Ichiro?

12:49
Comment From Confused in ATL
For ATL, is AJ Pierzynski a good stop gap at C for the braves in 2016 or should they look for a long-term solution? I don’t see them being very competitive next year.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it makes that much sense – try to find *any* catcher with *any* chance of a future

12:49
Comment From Blue Cat
Do you have championship banners printed that you can hang from your ceiling like a sports team when Zips wins a season?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: No, I’m not very braggy

12:50
Comment From Blue Cat
also, you do drape a tarp over your workstation and then spray the room with booze and smoke a cigar?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: sounds like a fire hazard

12:50
Comment From mtsw
Re: Steve Pearce, there’s not a team out there that will look at him as a guy who hit 36 HR with 5+ WAR in his last 700 PAs that can play multiple positions well and offer him like 2/24 or 3/30? Only takes one team to see him as that guy, even if they’re wrong.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think a team offers him anywhere near that much

12:51
Comment From Julio Pepper
Really? You’d rather face Pineda/Severino than Kazmir/McHugh?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Slightly

12:51
Comment From Dick Hancock
Do you know bofa?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Bank of America?

12:52
Comment From James
Chances the Rangers can sequence their way to winning the ALDS? I’m a big Rangers fan, and I say 30%

12:52
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anybody’s a 30/70 underdog in a playoff series.

12:52
Comment From Cube Jockey
Say the Cubs break out for five runs in the first inning of the WC game. How much consideration do you give to yanking Arrieta and going straight to a bullpen game so that he can pitch twice in the NLDS?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: I absolutely would

12:52
Comment From Phillies113
Considering how much more prevalent strikeouts have become over the past few years, why was Kershaw getting 300 K so rare? Shouldn’t this be happening more frequently?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Well, fewer innings than the old days

12:53
Dan Szymborski: At 220 innings, you need a 12.3 K/9

12:53
Dan Szymborski: So you need to throw more – even Kershaw didn’t hit 12

12:54
Comment From Moishe Bubbleman
You’re the GM of an MLB team. You have a chance to sign one of two players to a 4-year contract, same terms. Player A will produce 2.0 WAR in each of the 4 years. Player B will produce 4.0 WAR in two of the years, 0.0 WAR in the other two years. Given that foreknowledge, which player do you sign?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Do I get to know what years they do it in?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it depends on the makeup of my team and my team goals

12:55
Comment From Marc
If the Cubs lose the WC game/ a playoff series, what will their excuse be this time?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Why do you need an excuse? Every game has a team that ends up winning and a team that doesn’t

12:55
Comment From Dick Hancock
would you touch a poo for $20?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Depends on whose it is

12:55
Comment From Mike
What do you make of Shin-Soo Choo’s last month+ of this season? Something he’s capable of repeating in 2016 if healthy, or simply a smallish sample size mirage?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Wait and see. That he salvaged his season was really good news for the Rangers

12:56
Comment From Marcus Banks
I looked at Swydan’s article after I made the Kershaw post and saw that he is 3 whole wins below Pedro’s 1999 season. He’s easily the best pitcher since, but I think he’s definitely a notch below Pedro.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: It depends if we’r edefinining peak as *a* season or as a longer more sustained peak

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Even Everest’s peak isn’t a single sharp point

12:56
Comment From PandaCrusher
Logically, this offseason is when the Astros need to start spending money, right? They’ve got Correa, Keuchel, Springer, etc. under minimum salary deals – overpay for Price or someone now that your window is open

12:56
Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a good argument for them

12:57
Comment From mtsw
Given that O’s are “monumentally” screwed, should they just teardown and sell off Jones/Machado to refill the farm? Jones has made it clear he doesn’t want to spend his prime on a rebuilding franchise and Machado will be approaching free agency by the time a rebuild starts to bear fruit. Same logic goes for Tillman if another team is actually interested in him.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: I would try to extend Machado before I commit to a rebuild

12:57
Dan Szymborski: But if I have no real hope of extending Machado, then I rebuild

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Essentially, the O’s have no reinforcements

12:58
Dan Szymborski: There are no reserves

12:59
Dan Szymborski: O’s need a farm or a lot of money and I dont’ think they actually have either

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Since I already reference Gamelin earlier

1:00
Dan Szymborski: When Churchill asked Gamelin where the latter’s reserves were during the conquest of France, Gamelin shrugged and replied that there were no reserves

1:00
Comment From j-reddick
am i getting extended or traded

1:00
Dan Szymborski: I expect traded

1:00
Comment From Julio Pepper
Would you rather be the Cubs or the Red Sox for the next five years? That farm system is drool-worthy.

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Cubs I think even though I like both teams futures

1:00
Comment From The+Dude
Is Scherzer’s first season with the Nats a bit of a disappointment? Great overall numbers, but he fell apart in August, and to lesser extent, July.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: You are a greedy greedy man

1:01
Comment From Q-Ball
What does AJ Preller do now for an encore? All-in again, tweak, or blow it up?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: From the trade deadline, the Padres seem crushed by inertia

1:01
Comment From huh
is 1.66 and 1.77 really that big a gap in grienke and arrieta’s eras?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: No

1:01
Comment From Luke
What do you think about Granderson going forward? He had a pretty quiet 5 win season.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Decline still

1:01
Comment From STiVo
Have you announced dates for the 2015 ZiPS Apology World Tour (sorry, but I promise ZiPS doesn’t hate your team)?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Since I don’t do Gloating Tours, I don’t do Apology Tours

1:02
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is always the best I can make it. In the end, it’s a bunch of computer algorithms.

1:02
Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to apologize for my best effort.

1:02
Comment From Jeff
Conforto should be playing over Cuddyer even against lefties, right? Is this as bad as it looks?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Let Conforto play during the 162 game-days and give Cuddyer the larger portion of the platoon, the 203 non game-days.

1:03
Comment From Tom
It’s possible to get 15 wins with about 55 million. Just guessing, but the additions of burnett, Liriano, Kang and Cervelli were probably in the ballpark of 15-18 wins and less than 55 million

1:03
Dan Szymborski: But that’s easier said than done

1:03
Dan Szymborski: That all of these things worked out, and mostly well, doesn’t mean that they were fated to at the time

1:04
Comment From The+Dude
In mid September, Bryce Harper said of Matt Williams, “I love him as a manager.” Was that genuine, or a shrewd political move to seem like a team player, knowing full well Williams would be canned?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: There’s no benefit to complaining about your manager to the media

1:04
Comment From Zonk
Am I wrong in thinking the Phlllies GM job is absolutely plum? Good ballpark, good farm system, big TV contracts, bad contracts ending in 2 years, and low initial expectations. What’s not to like?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: It’s a good job, though not an elite one as I’d still be unsure as to the patience of my bosses

1:05
Comment From The Oriole Bird
You going to read “Superforecating” by Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner? Just came out. Tetlock is the guru who published “Expert Political Judgment” and ran a cool 20-year study on expert forecasting. Gardner is the guy who makes it readable, I assume (given Tetlock’s previously impenetrable-to-the-layman writing). It’s great. I think anyone who appreciates SABR thinking would be interested.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to check it out

1:05
Comment From HappyFunBall
Scherzer’s final 2015 numbers: 228.2 innings pitched, 276 strikeouts, 34 walks, 176 hits, a 2.79 ERA, and a 2.77 FIP. Oh, and two no-hitters

Chance of winning a Cy Young: 0.00%

1:06
Comment From Q-Ball
When does the NL CY Young voting occur? Now, or after Arrieta buries the Pirates in his backyard?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: BBWAA awards are voted on before the postseason starrts

1:06
Comment From Gary
What has a larger effect on the offense in Coors – balls flying farther or breaking balls breaking less?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Both important but I think it’s still the balls flying farther

1:06
Comment From vince
is there a hearthstone to ichiro comparison you can make

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Argent Commander. Was an awesome card awhile ago, but it’s poor in constructed against cards that have been released since

1:08
Dan Szymborski: The same thing happened to Cairne Bloodhoof. Dealing 5 is crucial at that mana cost

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Because you’re now going up against Loatheb and Sludge Belcher and Emperor Thaurissan

1:09
Comment From Blue Cat
Dan, why does fangraphs use so much green in the color scheme?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: They like green/

1:09
Comment From Q-Ball
What playoff teams to you are most likely to be repeat playoff contenders for the next 3 years?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: All the NL teams. AL outlook a little foggier

1:09
Comment From Tom
The Nats considering Cal Ripken to replace Williams… has to be the worst possible choice they could make? Didn’t they already try hiring a great player (though not Ripken great) with no coaching experience?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Ripken strike me as too low-key to manage a clubhouse of A personalities

1:10
Comment From aj pierzynski

teammates love me

1:10
Comment From HappyFunBall
Getting Wainwright to use as a wipeout reliever just in time for the playoffs is not fair.

1:11
Dan Szymborski: Maybe, but I’d prefer to have Carlos Martinez as a starter over Wainwright as a reliever, given the choice

1:11
Comment From Zonk
How surprised were you that A-Rod a) had a productive year, and b) was absolutely quiet otherwise?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: Fairly

1:11
Comment From Guest
In ____ years we’ll look back at Kershaw not winning this year’s NL CY and be embarrassed.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they will, because neither Greinke nor Arrieta over Kershaw is an embarrassing difference, even if you think Kershaw should get it

1:12
Comment From Guest
Please come up with an excuse as to why a team would lose one single game, bonus points if that game is against arguably the best team in baseball running out a top-flight ace.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Cloud formation.

1:12
Comment From HappyFunBall
I’ve got two children, and have changed my share of diapers. Where can I go to get my $20 ?

1:12
Comment From Julio Pepper
Off the top of your head, what does shipping Machado get you? Moncada/Devers/Owens? More?

1:12
1:12
Comment From Maddon Fan
Other than the Orioles, can you name one or two other teams pretty screwed for next year? Cincy or the Padres maybe?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: Orioles, Rockies, Reds, Marlins

1:13
Comment From Phillies113
Do you see the Nationals rebounding next year? A lot of their issues was guys underperforming and injuries. I wouldn’t count them out for 2016.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be fine next year and the new manager will get an unfairly large amount of credit for it

1:13
Dan Szymborski: OK, getting towards 1:15 and I have some appointments – any last chance off-topic Qs?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: (post-August chats are slow enough that we don’t need an official Lightning Round until the postseason gets going)

1:14
Comment From Eric Weinstein
More embarrasing for the BBWA: Matt Williams’ 2014 manager of the year or Raffy Palmeiro’s 1999 gold glove?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: At least he actually managed more than 20 games

1:14
Comment From mtsw
Have you played Battle Brothers? Still very unfinished in early access but seems like they have a solid foundation for a fun game once it’s filled out with more content.

1:14
Dan Szymborski: I have not

1:15
Comment From Joe Gifrardi
So, CC Sabathia is checking into rehab for alchoholism. Is this a thing people knew about?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: I would guess some writers had a suspicion, but I ignore players private lives.

1:15
Comment From aj pierzynski
Ken Rosenthal wrote:
#Yankees release statement from CC Sabathia saying that he is checking himself into alcohol rehabilitation center.

1:15
Dan Szymborski: If someone’s gossiping about a player off the field, I tend to stop listening

1:16
Comment From Guest
How disappointed were you that A-Rod never owned being a heel?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Extremely

1:17
Comment From Phillies113
King’s Quest is great and you should try it if you haven’t already! This is not a question; sorry 🙁

1:17
Dan Szymborski: I’m probably waiting for the whole set

1:17
Comment From Stephen
Do you play starcraft 2?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: No

1:17
Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to scram. Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com, catch chats and projections and FanGraphs, and find me on Twitter.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: At DSzymborski





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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