Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/7/19

Dan Szymborski: Greetings, there is no baseball!

Dan Szymborski: But there is pretend baseball that may lead to future baseball.

Dan Szymborski: Unless, you know, the world ends in March or something. But then you won’t be aware of no baseball so our demise works out also!

Dan Szymborski: I like existing, but no longer needing to finish cleaning out the basement is cool too.

Bill G: Where can I get plate appearances per lineup slot.  Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Our Split Leaderboards are just the tincture you need for revitalization, good sir!

Dan Szymborski: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=19&spli…

BlueJayMatt: If the Padres want to rid themselves of Myers and his entire contract, what prospect would they have to send along with him to make it happen?

Dan Szymborski: Luckily, I don’t think the contract is a total loss, so they hopefully wouldn’t have to include someone crazy. The next team will be on the hook for $61 million or $80 million. So…uh…$61 million.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s say he’s worth half that and a contending team with a need is willing to eat a little more, say another $10 million

Dan Szymborski: So, that means a good prospect, but someone likely who is out of the top 100

Dan Szymborski: Someone like Austin Allen? Maybe someone in the general tier of Adrian Morejon?

Dan Szymborski: I think if I’m forced to take the whole Myers contract, that’s what I would want in return.

TomBruno23: Would you believe Adam wainwright’s fip was higher last year than it was in 2018 and 2017? Nearly identical, granted. But still, shows what an out making defense behind him and his 14th best gb% (Hudson #1 Mikolas #20) can do. Ryu 8th Wade Miley 11th on that list are two guys not attached to a QO that I expect the Cardinals to discuss. Discuss?

Dan Szymborski: I can totally see the Cards being interest in Ryu and Miley.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re going to do anything too aggressive

Ari: Told you 2-1 Nationals after 3. Anyway, do you think AJ Preller is a good or bad GM?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s probably above-average, but it’s a bit difficult to separate things he did to things ownership wanted.

Jim Leyland Palmer: Dan, do you think Dominic Smith for Joe Jimenez is a realistic deal in terms of value? Mets need relief help, and the Tigers need someone to hit baseballs

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Mets would make this trade. Now, their feelings about Smith seem to be over the place, but Jimenez doesn’t come without questions.

Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you think the Tigers would slightly lower their ask on Boyd this winter after A) his 2nd half performance B) some increased urgency to acquire hitters?

Dan Szymborski: There’s an increased *need* for hitters, but I’m not sure there’s an urgency.

Dan Szymborski: The Tigers need so many hitters that furiously acquiring one isn’t necessarily going to do much.

Dan Szymborski: If you’re on the Titanic, you might trade your soul for a place on a raft, but not for a bucket.

McJuggernuts: Is it possible to poop without having your cellphone on your person?

Dan Szymborski: What happened before the 80s?

Crazy trades: Lets assume Boston has committed to trading Betts and both players named waive their NTC, would Upton for Price make sense for both teams? Angels would add approx 10 mm to their salary but would get a desperately needed SP and would clear space for Adell and Marsh (they have internal options to fill the gaps until they are ready), Boston would clear money off their books and move a player that doesn’t seem to fit in Boston

Dan Szymborski: It’s the kind of thing Boston would have to consider, though I think cost-saving is (sadly) a larger priority.

stever20: any surprises to you with the awards finalists?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing particularly shocking.

Dan Szymborski: I guess it’s not a SHOCKER, but I’m a bit surprised that Lovullo wasn’t in top 3 managers.

Dan Szymborski: And pleased that my colleagues fully considered Charlie Morton, even though he’s obviously the third place guy

Dan Szymborski: I also thought Flaherty may have squeezed in the top 3, but he’ll still get votes I’m sure

Jimny Kimmel: Matt Damon is a Fraud!

Dan Szymborski: Jimmy, I know the things you did with Ben Affleck.

joe: what happened to 3 year zips projections?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve expired! New ones coming this winter.

Roger: In light of the MLBPA statement last night, do they have any real investigative tools, or is this just posturing for CBA negotiations?

Dan Szymborski: They have ways to investigate and you’re always allowed to ask questions.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe AA literally meant he was directly receiving free agent info from other teams, but it *was* kind of a stupid statement to say, even innocently. Personnel has to be very careful talking off-the-cuff on something like this.

D: If you were running an NL team, would you consider trading for JD Martinez’s contract, given what we know about the DH penalty?

Dan Szymborski: I’d at least consider it in a specific need.

Tony Schiavone: Welcome to the greatest chat in the history of our sport!

Mr. Fister: Odorizzi and Will Smith would be stupid not to accept the QO.  That is all.

Dan Szymborski: His contract reflects his lack fo defensive value to an extent.

Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic than most on Odor. Smith ought to accept though.

BlueJayMatt: What’s the biggest animal you could beat in a fight? No weapons or armor allowed, fight takes place in the animals natural habitat.

Dan Szymborski: A human? I mean not all humans, but a good percentage of humans.

Jeff: Sounds like the Mets are being cagey about whether Cespedes plays at all in 2020… if he were healthy, though, what could reasonably be expected from a 34 year old OF after missing two seasons?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be that optimistic.

Mr. Fister: If you made some chili, added beans, and then put it between two separate pieces of a hotdog bun, would it be a stew submarine sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm..Yes

Brian: Zips 3 year with 2020 disappeared.  What’s the ETA on the updated 2020 model and through 2023?

Dan Szymborski: Our usual winter rollouts!

Joba: Dan, your new picture makes you look like a skunk.

Dan Szymborski: I’m just preparing for Presidents Day

Patrick: Whio are the most compelling minor league free agents?

Dan Szymborski: I’m probably going over some of them soon.

Guest: Should the Giants go for someone like Avasail Garcia?

Dan Szymborski: Meh.

Projections Dates: Is there a calendar somewhere where I can see when/where all of the major projections systems are going to debut their 2020 numbers?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so. I haven’t even randomly generated this year’s order.

AA from ATL: Do people seriously think I don’t call every other GM in the league to see what’s going on? That’s like my job isn’t it? Why is Tony so upset?

Dan Szymborski: Well, there’s a history of teams exchanging information for the purpose of colluding.

Dan Szymborski: So it’s smart to be sensitive about these things.

Dan Szymborski: But teams *are* going to try and find out what their competitors are doing.

Brian: Are you all all concerned that running Soto through future ZiPS will cause your computer to explode?

Dan Szymborski: It survived last year!

Jerry B: Tell me MadBum’s going to stay with SFG. After everything with the Warrior’s I was hoping free agency was going to be a welcome distraction. Tell me Zaidi’s got a plan!

Dan Szymborski: The tricky thing is figuring out exactly how much Zaidi’s allowed to do. GMs and even team VPs are rarely all-powerful satraps in their area of authority anymore

Dan: I keep reading different estimates of the Mets salary structure for 2020, in part because insurance money paying part of Wright’s and Cespedes’s salaries are often not taken into account. Which is a long way of asking, do the Mets have the leeway to add any significant free agents—a center fielder would help, or will they nibble around the edges as usual, looking for bull pen help?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure the Mets will use their salary savings in various plays to re-invest in shoring up the team’s weak points.

Dan Szymborski: Also, I’m the world’s biggest liar.

BenZ: 20 years from now, when people look back at Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, and Greinke, who will be remembered as the greatest?

Dan Szymborski: I still think Kershaw

Cownose Ray: What is your impression of Cincinnati’s attachment to Jonathan India?  At one point it seemed like he was being dangled.  Do you think he has a spot in the Reds win-now universe, and if not, what do you think they want back for that kind of prospect collateral?  OF?  C?  SP?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re perfectly willing to trade him, should a specific need arise.

kevinthecomic: When did you become the reincarnation of Horatio Nelson?

Dan Szymborski: I know it has to do with the picture, but let’s see what Talk To Transformer says.

Dan Szymborski: There’s been a big data update!

Dan Szymborski: Well, this one befuddled it.

Dan Szymborski:

Big Joe Mufferaw: SCENARIO! Yankees offer Cole, 4 years at 45 Mil per season (opt out after 3). Does he take it?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Cownose Ray: How soon do you think a team like the Mariners– who have declared they want to “let the kids play”– should bring up Kelenic, Gilbert, White, Raleigh, and Lewis?  Day 1?  How important is the lower stakes environment of AAA to player development in 2020?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the player, there’s no one-size-fits-all approach. You want to balance a player getting comfortable adjsuting to levels with also making sure you’re providing a challenge to your most talented guys

Jerry B: Does Will Smith accept SFG’s QO? It worked out for the Dodgers and Ryu, right? Give me some hope, I’m a freaking Tax Accountant!

Dan Szymborski: I think he very well coudl.

Cownose Ray: What is on your head?

Dan Szymborski: It’s called a tricorne and it’s very fashion forward in the salons.

BenZ: Will Miguel Cabrera ever have another 2 win season?

Dan Szymborski: no

Nahtan: What are the odds Pablo Sandoval can repeat his previous FA success?

Dan Szymborski: None

Dan Szymborski: Unless there’s something else FA

Dan Szymborski: Maybe you mean he’ll continue to be the best at fart antics or something

Dan Szymborski: Which I don’t really know about.

lipton: I keep reading predictions that Bumgarner will sign with an AL team, but isn’t that discounting his desire to play in the NL for the PA’s?

Dan Szymborski: I doubt there’s any basis for making such a prediction.

george: i was really encouraged by semien’s breakout this season – do you think he can keep it up? even 80% of 19 production’s a pretty player!

Dan Szymborski: They’ll be some regression, but he’s a really really good player.

Dan Szymborski: And he’s pretty much booted (ha!) the defensive isssues.

Joba: Is there a meaningful difference between GM and VP of baseball ops?

Dan Szymborski: There’s no standard really.

Cownose Ray: Even if Anthopolous is a fool for admitting what we suspect owners and GMs do all the time, doesn’t this recent drama with Tony Clark illustrate the powerlessness of the Players Union to do anything about enforcing the rule?

Dan Szymborski: I’m never quite sure what Clark is doing.

Dan Szymborski: If it’s like past CBAs, they’ll probably find evidence of nefarious doings, which Clark will exchange for teams providing the good brand of sunflower seeds to bullpens.

Dan Szymborski: Or maybe the chefs they got in return for screwing over amateurs will get fancier ingredients.

Daro: Gavin Lux + Dustin May for Mookie. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers for sure

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers rarely do these type of short-term moves. I would be shocked if they do something out of character for a year of Mookie. And I love Mookie

PS: Would it make sense to train a neural network to make projections? Or is it just overfitting on a larger scale?

Dan Szymborski: Well, PECOTA

Rhayex: Did you see the Reddit post about giving the umpires guns? I thought it was hilarious.

Rhayex: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/dqbbon/one_new_rule_to_fix_… there’s the Reddit link if you want to peruse.

Dan Szymborski: I did not. PLEASE DON’T ARM JOE WEST OR CB BUCKNOR

ryan: re: the Reds trading India if a specific need arises — wouldn’t you say they have some specific needs now? namely C, SS, OF?

ryan: and, to follow up that question (no worries if you don’t get to this bit) — if they can sign two of Grandal/Ozuna/Gregorius, who are all projected for a similar AAV, who would you prioritize?

Dan Szymborski: They do have needs now, but I think they’re going to go into FA first. I expect them to be active.

Eel Ffilc: What percentage of minor leaguers do you think could match or exceed Jeff Mathis’ wRC+ of TWO in 244 PAs?

Dan Szymborski: Quite a lot.  Though he does have defensive value. But damn dat bat.

BenZ: Who is more likely to play in an MLB game is 2020, Dustin Pedroia or Jacoby Ellsbury?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Pedroia

Cownose Ray: Does the Deadspin collapse have any resonance for you?  What, if anything, is the takeaway from their “stick to sports” ultimatum that fractured the staff?  And, how hard do you as a staff at FG work to separate the wheat from the chaff of sport and politics?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry to see Deadspin go, at least in its present form.

Dan Szymborski: Though on a fundamental level, I don’t know if *this* was the limb for the staff to go out on – the memo wasn’t even stick to sports, it was “for god’s sake, just have at least some tangential relationship to sports”

Dan Szymborski: Now, one can say their content that had no sports content has been very successful, but trying to carve out the edges of what a brand is is not a particularly egregious thing for an owner to do.

Dan Szymborski: Now, there are some other things that suck about their ownership, but *this* was the point they walked out on, not the old buddy hiring, the clickbait ads, etc.

Dave: do you think the 30 GMs have a big group text? Who sends the best memes?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they do, but it woudl be hilariously awesome if they did

Dan Szymborski: but super super dangerous.

Dan Szymborski: Because you put a group like this together on a list, there are inevitably going to be some things that at least smack of collusion.

Dan Szymborski: See JournoList or GameJournoPros. The vast majority of stuff was innocuous, but it doesn’t take much sewage to spoil the sherry.

@PsyMar: Just saw that line at the top of the screen about Tony Clark, and went “wait, isn’t that Iron Man”

Cownose Ray: I’m curious what happens to Yasmani Grandal’s free agency this year.  Never has a 4-5 win player been so valued as a 2 win player.  Are people worried about the robo-umps and his framing successes?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re worried about roboumps. MLB can’t just institute it in MLB by fiat the way they can in the minors, so it would take awhile

Dan Szymborski: I would guess most active players will be retired before robo umps are in MLB, though I think they will be in my lifetime

Nick: Thoughts on Warcraft: Shadowlands?

Dan Szymborski: Not really thinking all that much about Blizzard at the moment. Returning the prize money they essentially stole was a big deal as was the reduced suspension, enough for me to drop my personal boycott, but my feelings about the company at the moment still aren’t sunny enough to be all that excited about what’s next for them.

Tony the Tiger: Does Castellanos and a decent FA pitcher or two put the Chisox a wild cart contender?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. Things have to happen.

Ryan: Will the investigation into Alex Anthopoulos’s amount to anything?  And even if it doesn’t uncover anything too sinister, do you think it sets back the ongoing CBA negotiations?

Dan Szymborski: I think no and yes.

Dan Szymborski: Though one could say the anger is more a reflection of the tension between the parties.

Dave: With the Cubs saying they’ll take a step back, do you think they’ll flip Lester?

Dan Szymborski: No

A Boy Named Yu: How many litter boxes do you have for the cats?  Do you follow the 2 boxes per cat rule? If so, are you just surrounded by them?

Dan Szymborski: 2 litter boxes in the basement and I’m good enough at socializing my cats with each other that there’s never been any trouble.

Dan Szymborski: If a cat doesn’t like it, they’re invited to live in the garage.

Logan: Dan, it’s far too early to be preparing for Presidents’ Day.  I never put up my Presidents’ Day decorations until January 1.  What’s next, Christmas decorations in October?

Dan Szymborski: You want to start preparing for Presidents Day early so that people know you’re in it for the presidents, not the car and clothing sales

Nick: As a former plaintiffs’ side antitrust lawyer, let me just say the idea of a group text including all 30 GMs make me salivate.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it would be a very, very bad idea.

Cownose Ray: Is a tricorne a fashion adornment is the general company of codpieces, or is it a magical horse with three horned heads?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a tricorn.

A Boy Named Yu: If Robo-Umps are instituted, will framing metrics be stripped back out of WAR calculations, or minimalized at least?

Dan Szymborski: We’ll see!

A Boy Named Yu: I have unopened copies of Uncharted 1 and 2…..they worth anything or ever will be?

Dan Szymborski: Well, worth whatever they go for. I don’t think they’re rare collector’s items

Dan Szymborski: like Nintendo World Championships

Dan Szymborski: But who knows

Dan Szymborski: http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2019/02/near_mint_condition_copy_of_s…

Dan Szymborski: even a newer game like Suikoden II is well over $100 used.

Dan Szymborski: But there were a LOT of Uncharteds

Dan Szymborski: I’m a gamer, but I’m not a medium fetishist. I’m perfectly happy with emulated copies, I don’t really care about having the physical original cartridge on an original console.

Rhayex: I think a lot of teams are wary of the poor track records of *star* catchers recently, right? Mauer, McCann, etc are catchers signed to large deals that were basically done by their early 30s. With that said, 4/65-70? You have to risk that for a 4 WAR catcher in this landscape, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think Grandal will get 3 but that’s it

A Boy Named Yu: I don’t find a GM group text plausible, but it’s really hard to believe they don’t talk about things with each other.  Not a question, just an observation.

Nahtan: Have you ever considered changing the name of your projection system to be a play on your name? Dan’s Szymulated Stats?

Dan Szymborski: Why change a name after 17 years without a good reason?

Dave: Dan I really asked that question to get the answer to which GM is the best memer haha

Dan Szymborski: I really don’t know

Dan Szymborski: Most of my texts are with lower level front office people

A cat: With a decline in base running and defense in 2019, and Mookie headed for the door, would it be wise for BOS to offer JBJ a multi year deal, say 4/40 with the last year a team option? Sox could probably squeeze 1.5-2 fWAR per year from him.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ll do that

Tony the Tiger: Injured players get injured = Carlos Correa long term?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still optimistic

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, I’m trying to get a job this offseason as a non-traditional candidate. Any advice?

Dan Szymborski: Be useful, be imaginative, network well.

Clark: My new past-time for the off-season is https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/.  Have you seen the site?  Do you think their values are legitimate?

Dan Szymborski: Havne’t dug into that

Dan Szymborski: And people asking why I didn’t answer X question or Y question: due to the number of questions submitted, I can only get about a third of them.

Dan Szymborski: And even that’s better than in the playoff chats, with 800 people hanging around at every given moemnt.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t generally answer questions on subjects I intend to write about!

Billy Beane: am I crazy for thinking it might make sense for the A’s to splurge on Keuchel? Feels like the Coliseum + the A’s stellar IF defense could make even this diminished version of Keuchel look way better than he is in the same way they did this year for Brett Anderson.

Dan Szymborski: I think it would be the nice, but the A’s aren’t a splurging franchise!

A Boy Named Yu: What’s holding Almora Jr back?  He seems to have decent pitch recog and contact skills but can’t seem to establish himself in the show.  Glovework looks good though.

Dan Szymborski: Problem is he deosn’t seem to have any particular strength

Dan Szymborski: Even his glove is fairly middling.

A Boy Named Yu: I don’t think getting Keuchel would take a “splurge” at this point.  2 yrs at $12 should do it?

Dan Szymborski: The A’s do kinda think that splurging is getting an extra large bag of Butterfingers so you have some extras to eat after the trick-or-treaters

Johnathan: Thanks for making declarative statements. Too many chatters respond to questions with maybe. We know it’s an opinion and we appreciate the effort.

Dan Szymborski: I do say maybe a lot.

Dan Szymborski: Because while I’m opinionated, I also have to know what I don’t know.

Dan Szymborski: If you don’t know what you don’t know, how do you know what you do?

Tyler: If the Dodgers are to get back to the World Series and win it, what is more important: player/pitcher additions or replacing Dave Roberts?

Dan Szymborski: It’s almost always roster over manager.

Trent: Devon Travis just elected free agency; is he a buy low candidate for the Reds?  Perhaps a minor league deal for middle infield depth, similar to the Dietrich or Iglesias deals?

Dan Szymborski: The Reds shouldn’t be in buy low then flip territory

noname: re: name change, is an awful pun not a good reason?

Dan Szymborski: I save puns for article titles!

A Boy Named Yu: Have you ever tried to create projections for top athletes in other sports?  i.e. MJ or Lebron, ODB III?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve done legwork for NFL projections, considerably farther for NBA, but not at finished product

A Boy Named Yu: Favorite player who never “made it”?

Dan Szymborski: John Stephens

James: Which free agent will be the Astros pitching project this year?

Dan Szymborski: I can TOTALLY see them picking up Danny Salazar

Greg: Re: Tyler’s question: Has there *ever* been an instance in which management was more important than roster in ruining a team’s playoff oh right Buck Showalter.

A Boy Named Yu: I meant projecting LeBron in MLB.  My bad.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, no, I have no idea how I would do that

Nahtan : Anyone at Fangraphs working on measuring Manager or FO wins over replacement? “WOFO”

Dan Szymborski: We Only F…never mind

Sotobles: Let’s take Robles and give him Soto’s WRC+ (and presumably a bump in steals because his OBP goes way up). What WAR are we talking about?

Dan Szymborski: Well, lots?

Tony the Tiger: What is the reason the A’s do not pull an ‘Al Davis” and just re-locate and league be damned, let the courts sort it out.

Dan Szymborski: It would be extraordinarily expensive because MLB’s central structure is very powerful. They’d deny the A’s revenue and let the *A’s* try to resolve it in the courts.

Evan: Has there been any quantitative analysis for farm-system rankings compared to MLB winning percentage?  I’d love to see, say, the R^2 values for Baseball Prospectus farm ranking in year x vs. MLB win percentage in year x + 2.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen attempts, but nothing meaningful

Dan Szymborski: A minor league’s win loss record is due to a lot more things than the actual prospects, of which there are relatively few

Jeff: Would you rather have as your 1B of the future… Pujols 2/$48M, Miggy 4/$121M, or C Davis 3/$63M ?

Dan Szymborski: Pujols. Rather flush the least amount of money I can.

A Boy Named Yu: Ever play Earl Weaver Baseball?  The 1990 A’s were unstoppable!

Dan Szymborski: I did, but by about 1990, I think I was playing something else.

Dan Szymborski: I know I played a lot of this in 1990

Dan Szymborski: https://www.myabandonware.com/game/major-league-manager-8e

Dan Szymborski: and then after that, the Tony la Russa games

Nick: Al Davis also had antitrust law on *his* side; the opposite would be true in the case of the Athletics.

Dan Szymborski: That’s the other problem.

Dan Szymborski: The Curt Flood Act extended antitrust protections to players, but not in team vs. team issues.

Guest: If you had to call it right now, who wins the AL Central next year?

Dan Szymborski: Indians

Dan Szymborski: Twins have too many rotation questions right this minute.

Pk: Is Stanton likely to be the worst contract of all time?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: But we’ll see!!!!!

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to depart for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me guys! hopefully we will pilot through the void and find baseball on the other side in March.