Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/7/19
12:02 |
: Greetings, there is no baseball!
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12:02 |
: But there is pretend baseball that may lead to future baseball.
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12:03 |
: Unless, you know, the world ends in March or something. But then you won’t be aware of no baseball so our demise works out also!
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12:03 |
: I like existing, but no longer needing to finish cleaning out the basement is cool too.
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12:04 |
: Where can I get plate appearances per lineup slot. Thanks!
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12:04 |
: Our Split Leaderboards are just the tincture you need for revitalization, good sir!
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12:04 |
: If the Padres want to rid themselves of Myers and his entire contract, what prospect would they have to send along with him to make it happen?
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12:06 |
: Luckily, I don’t think the contract is a total loss, so they hopefully wouldn’t have to include someone crazy. The next team will be on the hook for $61 million or $80 million. So…uh…$61 million.
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12:08 |
: Let’s say he’s worth half that and a contending team with a need is willing to eat a little more, say another $10 million
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12:10 |
: So, that means a good prospect, but someone likely who is out of the top 100
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12:10 |
: Someone like Austin Allen? Maybe someone in the general tier of Adrian Morejon?
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12:11 |
: I think if I’m forced to take the whole Myers contract, that’s what I would want in return.
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12:11 |
: Would you believe Adam wainwright’s fip was higher last year than it was in 2018 and 2017? Nearly identical, granted. But still, shows what an out making defense behind him and his 14th best gb% (Hudson #1 Mikolas #20) can do. Ryu 8th Wade Miley 11th on that list are two guys not attached to a QO that I expect the Cardinals to discuss. Discuss?
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12:11 |
: I can totally see the Cards being interest in Ryu and Miley.
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12:11 |
: I don’t think they’re going to do anything too aggressive
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12:11 |
: Told you 2-1 Nationals after 3. Anyway, do you think AJ Preller is a good or bad GM?
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12:11 |
: I think he’s probably above-average, but it’s a bit difficult to separate things he did to things ownership wanted.
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12:12 |
: Dan, do you think Dominic Smith for Joe Jimenez is a realistic deal in terms of value? Mets need relief help, and the Tigers need someone to hit baseballs
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12:13 |
: I don’t think the Mets would make this trade. Now, their feelings about Smith seem to be over the place, but Jimenez doesn’t come without questions.
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12:13 |
: Do you think the Tigers would slightly lower their ask on Boyd this winter after A) his 2nd half performance B) some increased urgency to acquire hitters?
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12:14 |
: There’s an increased *need* for hitters, but I’m not sure there’s an urgency.
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12:14 |
: The Tigers need so many hitters that furiously acquiring one isn’t necessarily going to do much.
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12:14 |
: If you’re on the Titanic, you might trade your soul for a place on a raft, but not for a bucket.
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12:14 |
: Is it possible to poop without having your cellphone on your person?
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12:15 |
: What happened before the 80s?
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12:15 |
: Lets assume Boston has committed to trading Betts and both players named waive their NTC, would Upton for Price make sense for both teams? Angels would add approx 10 mm to their salary but would get a desperately needed SP and would clear space for Adell and Marsh (they have internal options to fill the gaps until they are ready), Boston would clear money off their books and move a player that doesn’t seem to fit in Boston
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12:15 |
: It’s the kind of thing Boston would have to consider, though I think cost-saving is (sadly) a larger priority.
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12:15 |
: any surprises to you with the awards finalists?
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12:15 |
: Nothing particularly shocking.
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12:16 |
: I guess it’s not a SHOCKER, but I’m a bit surprised that Lovullo wasn’t in top 3 managers.
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12:16 |
: And pleased that my colleagues fully considered Charlie Morton, even though he’s obviously the third place guy
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12:17 |
: I also thought Flaherty may have squeezed in the top 3, but he’ll still get votes I’m sure
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12:17 |
: Matt Damon is a Fraud!
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12:17 |
: Jimmy, I know the things you did with Ben Affleck.
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12:17 |
: what happened to 3 year zips projections?
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12:17 |
: They’ve expired! New ones coming this winter.
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12:17 |
: In light of the MLBPA statement last night, do they have any real investigative tools, or is this just posturing for CBA negotiations?
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12:18 |
: They have ways to investigate and you’re always allowed to ask questions.
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12:18 |
: I don’t believe AA literally meant he was directly receiving free agent info from other teams, but it *was* kind of a stupid statement to say, even innocently. Personnel has to be very careful talking off-the-cuff on something like this.
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12:19 |
: If you were running an NL team, would you consider trading for JD Martinez’s contract, given what we know about the DH penalty?
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12:20 |
: I’d at least consider it in a specific need.
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12:20 |
: Welcome to the greatest chat in the history of our sport!
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12:20 |
: Odorizzi and Will Smith would be stupid not to accept the QO. That is all.
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12:20 |
: His contract reflects his lack fo defensive value to an extent.
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12:20 |
: I’m more optimistic than most on Odor. Smith ought to accept though.
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12:20 |
: What’s the biggest animal you could beat in a fight? No weapons or armor allowed, fight takes place in the animals natural habitat.
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12:21 |
: A human? I mean not all humans, but a good percentage of humans.
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12:22 |
: Sounds like the Mets are being cagey about whether Cespedes plays at all in 2020… if he were healthy, though, what could reasonably be expected from a 34 year old OF after missing two seasons?
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12:22 |
: I wouldn’t be that optimistic.
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12:22 |
: If you made some chili, added beans, and then put it between two separate pieces of a hotdog bun, would it be a stew submarine sandwich?
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12:22 |
: Hmm..Yes
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12:22 |
: Zips 3 year with 2020 disappeared. What’s the ETA on the updated 2020 model and through 2023?
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12:22 |
: Our usual winter rollouts!
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12:22 |
: Dan, your new picture makes you look like a skunk.
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12:22 |
: I’m just preparing for Presidents Day
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12:23 |
: Whio are the most compelling minor league free agents?
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12:23 |
: I’m probably going over some of them soon.
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12:23 |
: Should the Giants go for someone like Avasail Garcia?
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12:23 |
: Meh.
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12:23 |
: Is there a calendar somewhere where I can see when/where all of the major projections systems are going to debut their 2020 numbers?
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12:23 |
: I don’t believe so. I haven’t even randomly generated this year’s order.
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12:23 |
: Do people seriously think I don’t call every other GM in the league to see what’s going on? That’s like my job isn’t it? Why is Tony so upset?
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12:24 |
: Well, there’s a history of teams exchanging information for the purpose of colluding.
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12:24 |
: So it’s smart to be sensitive about these things.
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12:24 |
: But teams *are* going to try and find out what their competitors are doing.
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12:24 |
: Are you all all concerned that running Soto through future ZiPS will cause your computer to explode?
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12:24 |
: It survived last year!
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12:24 |
: Tell me MadBum’s going to stay with SFG. After everything with the Warrior’s I was hoping free agency was going to be a welcome distraction. Tell me Zaidi’s got a plan!
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12:25 |
: The tricky thing is figuring out exactly how much Zaidi’s allowed to do. GMs and even team VPs are rarely all-powerful satraps in their area of authority anymore
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12:25 |
: I keep reading different estimates of the Mets salary structure for 2020, in part because insurance money paying part of Wright’s and Cespedes’s salaries are often not taken into account. Which is a long way of asking, do the Mets have the leeway to add any significant free agents—a center fielder would help, or will they nibble around the edges as usual, looking for bull pen help?
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12:26 |
: I’m sure the Mets will use their salary savings in various plays to re-invest in shoring up the team’s weak points.
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12:26 |
: Also, I’m the world’s biggest liar.
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12:26 |
: 20 years from now, when people look back at Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, and Greinke, who will be remembered as the greatest?
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12:26 |
: I still think Kershaw
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12:26 |
: What is your impression of Cincinnati’s attachment to Jonathan India? At one point it seemed like he was being dangled. Do you think he has a spot in the Reds win-now universe, and if not, what do you think they want back for that kind of prospect collateral? OF? C? SP?
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12:26 |
: I think they’re perfectly willing to trade him, should a specific need arise.
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12:26 |
: When did you become the reincarnation of Horatio Nelson?
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12:27 |
: I know it has to do with the picture, but let’s see what Talk To Transformer says.
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12:27 |
: There’s been a big data update!
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12:29 |
: Well, this one befuddled it.
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12:29 |
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12:29 |
: SCENARIO! Yankees offer Cole, 4 years at 45 Mil per season (opt out after 3). Does he take it?
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12:29 |
: No.
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12:30 |
: How soon do you think a team like the Mariners– who have declared they want to “let the kids play”– should bring up Kelenic, Gilbert, White, Raleigh, and Lewis? Day 1? How important is the lower stakes environment of AAA to player development in 2020?
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12:31 |
: It depends on the player, there’s no one-size-fits-all approach. You want to balance a player getting comfortable adjsuting to levels with also making sure you’re providing a challenge to your most talented guys
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12:31 |
: Does Will Smith accept SFG’s QO? It worked out for the Dodgers and Ryu, right? Give me some hope, I’m a freaking Tax Accountant!
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12:31 |
: I think he very well coudl.
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12:31 |
: What is on your head?
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12:32 |
: It’s called a tricorne and it’s very fashion forward in the salons.
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12:32 |
: Will Miguel Cabrera ever have another 2 win season?
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12:32 |
: no
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12:32 |
: What are the odds Pablo Sandoval can repeat his previous FA success?
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12:32 |
: None
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12:34 |
: Unless there’s something else FA
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12:34 |
: Maybe you mean he’ll continue to be the best at fart antics or something
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12:34 |
: Which I don’t really know about.
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12:34 |
: I keep reading predictions that Bumgarner will sign with an AL team, but isn’t that discounting his desire to play in the NL for the PA’s?
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12:34 |
: I doubt there’s any basis for making such a prediction.
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12:34 |
: i was really encouraged by semien’s breakout this season – do you think he can keep it up? even 80% of 19 production’s a pretty player!
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12:35 |
: They’ll be some regression, but he’s a really really good player.
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12:35 |
: And he’s pretty much booted (ha!) the defensive isssues.
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12:35 |
: Is there a meaningful difference between GM and VP of baseball ops?
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12:35 |
: There’s no standard really.
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12:35 |
: Even if Anthopolous is a fool for admitting what we suspect owners and GMs do all the time, doesn’t this recent drama with Tony Clark illustrate the powerlessness of the Players Union to do anything about enforcing the rule?
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12:36 |
: I’m never quite sure what Clark is doing.
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12:36 |
: If it’s like past CBAs, they’ll probably find evidence of nefarious doings, which Clark will exchange for teams providing the good brand of sunflower seeds to bullpens.
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12:37 |
: Or maybe the chefs they got in return for screwing over amateurs will get fancier ingredients.
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12:37 |
: Gavin Lux + Dustin May for Mookie. Who says no?
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12:37 |
: Dodgers for sure
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12:38 |
: Dodgers rarely do these type of short-term moves. I would be shocked if they do something out of character for a year of Mookie. And I love Mookie
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12:38 |
: Would it make sense to train a neural network to make projections? Or is it just overfitting on a larger scale?
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12:38 |
: Well, PECOTA
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12:38 |
: Did you see the Reddit post about giving the umpires guns? I thought it was hilarious.
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12:38 |
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/dqbbon/one_new_rule_to_fix_… there’s the Reddit link if you want to peruse.
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12:38 |
: I did not. PLEASE DON’T ARM JOE WEST OR CB BUCKNOR
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12:39 |
: re: the Reds trading India if a specific need arises — wouldn’t you say they have some specific needs now? namely C, SS, OF?
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12:39 |
: and, to follow up that question (no worries if you don’t get to this bit) — if they can sign two of Grandal/Ozuna/Gregorius, who are all projected for a similar AAV, who would you prioritize?
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12:39 |
: They do have needs now, but I think they’re going to go into FA first. I expect them to be active.
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12:40 |
: What percentage of minor leaguers do you think could match or exceed Jeff Mathis’ wRC+ of TWO in 244 PAs?
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12:40 |
: Quite a lot. Though he does have defensive value. But damn dat bat.
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12:40 |
: Who is more likely to play in an MLB game is 2020, Dustin Pedroia or Jacoby Ellsbury?
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12:40 |
: Probably Pedroia
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12:40 |
: Does the Deadspin collapse have any resonance for you? What, if anything, is the takeaway from their “stick to sports” ultimatum that fractured the staff? And, how hard do you as a staff at FG work to separate the wheat from the chaff of sport and politics?
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12:41 |
: I’m sorry to see Deadspin go, at least in its present form.
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12:42 |
: Though on a fundamental level, I don’t know if *this* was the limb for the staff to go out on – the memo wasn’t even stick to sports, it was “for god’s sake, just have at least some tangential relationship to sports”
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12:42 |
: Now, one can say their content that had no sports content has been very successful, but trying to carve out the edges of what a brand is is not a particularly egregious thing for an owner to do.
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12:43 |
: Now, there are some other things that suck about their ownership, but *this* was the point they walked out on, not the old buddy hiring, the clickbait ads, etc.
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12:43 |
: do you think the 30 GMs have a big group text? Who sends the best memes?
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12:43 |
: I don’t think they do, but it woudl be hilariously awesome if they did
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12:44 |
: but super super dangerous.
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12:44 |
: Because you put a group like this together on a list, there are inevitably going to be some things that at least smack of collusion.
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12:45 |
: See JournoList or GameJournoPros. The vast majority of stuff was innocuous, but it doesn’t take much sewage to spoil the sherry.
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12:45 |
: Just saw that line at the top of the screen about Tony Clark, and went “wait, isn’t that Iron Man”
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12:45 |
: I’m curious what happens to Yasmani Grandal’s free agency this year. Never has a 4-5 win player been so valued as a 2 win player. Are people worried about the robo-umps and his framing successes?
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12:46 |
: I don’t think they’re worried about roboumps. MLB can’t just institute it in MLB by fiat the way they can in the minors, so it would take awhile
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12:46 |
: I would guess most active players will be retired before robo umps are in MLB, though I think they will be in my lifetime
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12:46 |
: Thoughts on Warcraft: Shadowlands?
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12:47 |
: Not really thinking all that much about Blizzard at the moment. Returning the prize money they essentially stole was a big deal as was the reduced suspension, enough for me to drop my personal boycott, but my feelings about the company at the moment still aren’t sunny enough to be all that excited about what’s next for them.
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12:47 |
: Does Castellanos and a decent FA pitcher or two put the Chisox a wild cart contender?
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12:47 |
: Not really. Things have to happen.
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12:48 |
: Will the investigation into Alex Anthopoulos’s amount to anything? And even if it doesn’t uncover anything too sinister, do you think it sets back the ongoing CBA negotiations?
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12:48 |
: I think no and yes.
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12:48 |
: Though one could say the anger is more a reflection of the tension between the parties.
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12:48 |
: With the Cubs saying they’ll take a step back, do you think they’ll flip Lester?
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12:48 |
: No
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12:48 |
: How many litter boxes do you have for the cats? Do you follow the 2 boxes per cat rule? If so, are you just surrounded by them?
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12:48 |
: 2 litter boxes in the basement and I’m good enough at socializing my cats with each other that there’s never been any trouble.
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12:49 |
: If a cat doesn’t like it, they’re invited to live in the garage.
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12:49 |
: Dan, it’s far too early to be preparing for Presidents’ Day. I never put up my Presidents’ Day decorations until January 1. What’s next, Christmas decorations in October?
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12:49 |
: You want to start preparing for Presidents Day early so that people know you’re in it for the presidents, not the car and clothing sales
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12:49 |
: As a former plaintiffs’ side antitrust lawyer, let me just say the idea of a group text including all 30 GMs make me salivate.
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12:50 |
: Yeah, it would be a very, very bad idea.
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12:50 |
: Is a tricorne a fashion adornment is the general company of codpieces, or is it a magical horse with three horned heads?
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12:50 |
: That’s a tricorn.
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12:50 |
: If Robo-Umps are instituted, will framing metrics be stripped back out of WAR calculations, or minimalized at least?
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12:50 |
: We’ll see!
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12:50 |
: I have unopened copies of Uncharted 1 and 2…..they worth anything or ever will be?
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12:50 |
: Well, worth whatever they go for. I don’t think they’re rare collector’s items
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12:51 |
: like Nintendo World Championships
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12:51 |
: But who knows
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12:52 |
: even a newer game like Suikoden II is well over $100 used.
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12:52 |
: But there were a LOT of Uncharteds
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12:53 |
: I’m a gamer, but I’m not a medium fetishist. I’m perfectly happy with emulated copies, I don’t really care about having the physical original cartridge on an original console.
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12:53 |
: I think a lot of teams are wary of the poor track records of *star* catchers recently, right? Mauer, McCann, etc are catchers signed to large deals that were basically done by their early 30s. With that said, 4/65-70? You have to risk that for a 4 WAR catcher in this landscape, right?
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12:53 |
: I think Grandal will get 3 but that’s it
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12:53 |
: I don’t find a GM group text plausible, but it’s really hard to believe they don’t talk about things with each other. Not a question, just an observation.
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12:53 |
: Have you ever considered changing the name of your projection system to be a play on your name? Dan’s Szymulated Stats?
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12:53 |
: Why change a name after 17 years without a good reason?
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12:54 |
: Dan I really asked that question to get the answer to which GM is the best memer haha
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12:54 |
: I really don’t know
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12:54 |
: Most of my texts are with lower level front office people
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12:54 |
: With a decline in base running and defense in 2019, and Mookie headed for the door, would it be wise for BOS to offer JBJ a multi year deal, say 4/40 with the last year a team option? Sox could probably squeeze 1.5-2 fWAR per year from him.
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12:54 |
: I don’t think they’ll do that
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12:54 |
: Injured players get injured = Carlos Correa long term?
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12:55 |
: I’m still optimistic
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12:55 |
: Hey Dan, I’m trying to get a job this offseason as a non-traditional candidate. Any advice?
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12:55 |
: Be useful, be imaginative, network well.
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12:55 |
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/. Have you seen the site? Do you think their values are legitimate?
: My new past-time for the off-season is |
12:55 |
: Havne’t dug into that
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12:56 |
: And people asking why I didn’t answer X question or Y question: due to the number of questions submitted, I can only get about a third of them.
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12:56 |
: And even that’s better than in the playoff chats, with 800 people hanging around at every given moemnt.
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12:56 |
: And I don’t generally answer questions on subjects I intend to write about!
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12:56 |
: am I crazy for thinking it might make sense for the A’s to splurge on Keuchel? Feels like the Coliseum + the A’s stellar IF defense could make even this diminished version of Keuchel look way better than he is in the same way they did this year for Brett Anderson.
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12:57 |
: I think it would be the nice, but the A’s aren’t a splurging franchise!
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12:57 |
: What’s holding Almora Jr back? He seems to have decent pitch recog and contact skills but can’t seem to establish himself in the show. Glovework looks good though.
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1:00 |
: Problem is he deosn’t seem to have any particular strength
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1:00 |
: Even his glove is fairly middling.
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1:00 |
: I don’t think getting Keuchel would take a “splurge” at this point. 2 yrs at $12 should do it?
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1:01 |
: The A’s do kinda think that splurging is getting an extra large bag of Butterfingers so you have some extras to eat after the trick-or-treaters
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1:01 |
: Thanks for making declarative statements. Too many chatters respond to questions with maybe. We know it’s an opinion and we appreciate the effort.
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1:01 |
: I do say maybe a lot.
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1:01 |
: Because while I’m opinionated, I also have to know what I don’t know.
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1:01 |
: If you don’t know what you don’t know, how do you know what you do?
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1:01 |
: If the Dodgers are to get back to the World Series and win it, what is more important: player/pitcher additions or replacing Dave Roberts?
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1:01 |
: It’s almost always roster over manager.
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1:02 |
: Devon Travis just elected free agency; is he a buy low candidate for the Reds? Perhaps a minor league deal for middle infield depth, similar to the Dietrich or Iglesias deals?
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1:02 |
: The Reds shouldn’t be in buy low then flip territory
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1:02 |
: re: name change, is an awful pun not a good reason?
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1:02 |
: I save puns for article titles!
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1:02 |
: Have you ever tried to create projections for top athletes in other sports? i.e. MJ or Lebron, ODB III?
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1:02 |
: I’ve done legwork for NFL projections, considerably farther for NBA, but not at finished product
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1:03 |
: Favorite player who never “made it”?
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1:03 |
: John Stephens
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1:03 |
: Which free agent will be the Astros pitching project this year?
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1:03 |
: I can TOTALLY see them picking up Danny Salazar
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1:03 |
: Re: Tyler’s question: Has there *ever* been an instance in which management was more important than roster in ruining a team’s playoff oh right Buck Showalter.
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1:04 |
: I meant projecting LeBron in MLB. My bad.
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1:04 |
: Oh, no, I have no idea how I would do that
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1:04 |
: Anyone at Fangraphs working on measuring Manager or FO wins over replacement? “WOFO”
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1:04 |
: We Only F…never mind
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1:04 |
: Let’s take Robles and give him Soto’s WRC+ (and presumably a bump in steals because his OBP goes way up). What WAR are we talking about?
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1:04 |
: Well, lots?
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1:05 |
: What is the reason the A’s do not pull an ‘Al Davis” and just re-locate and league be damned, let the courts sort it out.
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1:06 |
: It would be extraordinarily expensive because MLB’s central structure is very powerful. They’d deny the A’s revenue and let the *A’s* try to resolve it in the courts.
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1:06 |
: Has there been any quantitative analysis for farm-system rankings compared to MLB winning percentage? I’d love to see, say, the R^2 values for Baseball Prospectus farm ranking in year x vs. MLB win percentage in year x + 2.
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1:06 |
: I’ve seen attempts, but nothing meaningful
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1:07 |
: A minor league’s win loss record is due to a lot more things than the actual prospects, of which there are relatively few
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1:07 |
: Would you rather have as your 1B of the future… Pujols 2/$48M, Miggy 4/$121M, or C Davis 3/$63M ?
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1:07 |
: Pujols. Rather flush the least amount of money I can.
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1:07 |
: Ever play Earl Weaver Baseball? The 1990 A’s were unstoppable!
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1:07 |
: I did, but by about 1990, I think I was playing something else.
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1:08 |
: I know I played a lot of this in 1990
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1:09 |
: and then after that, the Tony la Russa games
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1:09 |
: Al Davis also had antitrust law on *his* side; the opposite would be true in the case of the Athletics.
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1:09 |
: That’s the other problem.
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1:10 |
: The Curt Flood Act extended antitrust protections to players, but not in team vs. team issues.
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1:10 |
: If you had to call it right now, who wins the AL Central next year?
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1:10 |
: Indians
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1:10 |
: Twins have too many rotation questions right this minute.
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1:10 |
: Is Stanton likely to be the worst contract of all time?
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1:10 |
: No
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1:10 |
: But we’ll see!!!!!
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1:10 |
: And on that note, it’s time for me to depart for another week.
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1:11 |
: Thanks for joining me guys! hopefully we will pilot through the void and find baseball on the other side in March.
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
do you feel like a moron for saying Anthopoulos said nothing wrong now that the Braves have retracted his statement and said he didn’t actually mean what he said?
You should.