Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/11/13
11:59 |
: And heeeeeeeeeere come the pretzels!
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12:00 |
When will ZIPS projections start getting rolled out? |
12:00 |
: 12/1, I believe.
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12:00 |
In a Diamond Mind dynasty league format would you rather have Puig or Myers? |
12:01 |
: Puig. Not that I don’t like Myers, but you gave me a beer n’ tacos q.
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12:01 |
What do you think of home plate collisions? Part of the game? |
12:01 |
: Part of the game, but not one I like. While it’s cool watching collisions, these are real guys that can get seriously hurt.
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12:02 |
What is the relation between minor league SB% and MLB SB%? How much does it go up/down? |
12:02 |
: Success rate goes down moderately, but attempts tend to go down even more – you just can’t run wild on MLBers.
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12:02 |
Fantasy Football is so ridiculously random, frustrating yet addictive. I hate weekly format for baseball but its the only way to go for football! |
12:02 |
: I have Tony Romo. 🙁
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12:03 |
Lot of rumors about Tulo to the cards. What kind of return would the Rockies need to make that not horrible? |
12:03 |
: They’ll need one of the big non-Wacha arms for sure. I talked more about Tulo and Cards and SS options over on ESPN.
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12:03 |
Does the Mauer-to-1B move impact his ZiPS projections at all? |
12:03 |
: While I haven’t run them, it’ll make his projected decline less steep.
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12:03 |
Thanks for chatting Dan! There are reports linking the Royals to Phil Hughes. How do you think he’d fare with them? Is there a Santana-type ceiling he could hit? |
12:04 |
: I guess he coudl be league averagish, but I’m bearish on Hughes.
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12:05 |
: Perhaps Royals have found that “familiar name, craptacular results” is the new “good pitcher.”
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12:05 |
If you were the Orioles, would you look to extend both Wieters AND Davis this offseason? |
12:05 |
: I’d try, but these things always came down to money. There’s a price tag at which both would be amazing signings and price tags that make ’em terrible.
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12:05 |
I too had Romo, also Graham and Hartley vs. PT Cruiser. Crushing loss. |
12:06 |
: I have weekly depression moment when I recall picking an upside TE, Jared Cook vs. Julius Thomas, and going with Cook.
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12:06 |
On the Mets front… realistic shot they acquire any impact SS? Letting Reyes walk for nothing is now one of the bigger glaring errors with Tejada pulling a Rey Ordonez (minus the glove) |
12:07 |
: If it makes you feel better, even Rey Ordonez only had a couple Rey Ordonez glove years.
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12:08 |
: I don’t believe Mets will be that exciting. I see their talk of names and money to mostly be posturing.
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12:08 |
Assuming the Dodgers eat a lot of his contract, how likely is it that Ethier gets traded? |
12:09 |
: I think the Dodgers will expect too much in return and possibly make him the world’s most overpaid role player
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12:10 |
How do you go about projecting the performance of Puig, where you only really have a season’s worth of reliable stats? Broadly speaking, how do the calculations differ? |
12:10 |
: It’s tough – ZiPS will give me ginormous error bands
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12:10 |
Barves |
12:10 |
And if the Rockies trade Tulo, should they turn right around and deal Carlos Gonzalez for Profar? Would Texas do that? |
12:11 |
: They might. CarGo has good surplus value.
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12:11 |
I know that BHam is a special case, but how much do SB attempts go down overall between MLB and MiLB? 25% less attempts? |
12:12 |
: Even more than that, though usually a lot of that is already whittled away by transition to high minors. Then again, there are very few Eternal Green Light guys like Hamilton
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12:12 |
Hi Dan, |
12:12 |
: Hi!
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12:12 |
Miller/Adams/Kelly for Tulo. Who says no? |
12:13 |
: I think that’s the type of thing we’re likely looking at, though it could go to one side or the other depending on if any other pieces involved.
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12:13 |
Hi Dan: The Tigers are still contenders, but their window is closing. What should they try to do this offseason? |
12:14 |
: Never push just 90% of your chips. Ilitch is in his mid-80s and Cano is the best piece available.
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12:14 |
: On the less flashy side, they really need to put together bad bullpen depth.
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12:14 |
Do either Shark or Castro get moved this offseason? Sounds like they’re far apart with Shark on $ for an extension. He’d bring a big haul, no? |
12:14 |
: I think they’re both Cubs to start 2014.
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12:14 |
It doesn’t, we’re still the Mets owned by the Wilpons… |
12:14 |
We can call them Whitey Wackers! |
12:15 |
Is Mauer a hall of famer? |
12:15 |
: No. He’s still active. You have to be retired for 5 years or die in a spectacular fashion.
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12:15 |
: But since I know that’s not the question.
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12:15 |
: Mauer’s case is very close. I’m nto sure I wouldn’t put him in now as a peak case.
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12:16 |
: And if we’re talking *will* the HoF do something, I don’t want to even imagine what the BBWAA voters will do.
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12:17 |
: It’s an organization that has guys like Keith Law, but a lot of guys that are 80 year-old retirees that haven’t written about baseball since 1970.
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12:18 |
: I still think that the Hall will eventually have to have a 1990s/2000s Committee to fix the mess the BBWAA has left.
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12:20 |
Will franceour get a major league deal? |
12:20 |
: At this point, I think he gets a minor league. If MLB contract, very small numbers.
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12:20 |
Will Ichiro receive a multi-year contract next offseason? |
12:20 |
: No.
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12:20 |
Are you big on the Cubans (players or sandwiches)? |
12:20 |
: Yes and yes.
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12:20 |
: Although looking at my gut, beer is the culprit there
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12:21 |
Rank for next season: wacha, wheeler, Cole? |
12:21 |
: Wacha step ahead, other 2 guys next to each other
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12:21 |
Mauer’s move to 1B helps the Rays in the fact that there may be less interest in Morneau, but hurts them in acquiring “under-the-radar” defensive-minded catcher in Hanigan…do I have this right? |
12:22 |
: I’m not quite sure I understand the question. Actually, I’m quite sure that I don’t. What does this have to do with the Rays?
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12:22 |
Ed Sprague got a Haiku? Where’s the love, man? |
12:22 |
: We were just mean to Carter.
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12:23 |
: It was definitely an awkward moment when Ed Sprague retweeted my image of old Ed Sprague tweets.
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12:23 |
: I need to remember what was funny 15 years ago may be a little tactless now!
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12:24 |
You’re Brian Cashman and ownership gives you a blank check this offseason. Who do you pursue? |
12:24 |
: Well, Cano back for sure. Choo. I’d probably bring in Drew and bench Jeter as long as we’re in imaginationland
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12:24 |
How many cats is a grown man living alone allowed to have before he is labelled “weird”? |
12:25 |
: When the cats exceed 1 cat per 750 square feet.
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12:25 |
Is Ike Davis a good buy-low candidate for teams needing a 1B (some rumors about the Brewers being interested)? Solid defense, proven power, and for the disaster of the first half and his slightly crazy look swing, he was quite good after he came back up from the minors (286/449/505). Or am I over-thinking things here, and he is exactly as bad as he looked in the first half of the season? |
12:25 |
: I think in the end, he’s a Mets in 2014.
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12:25 |
Best guess on who the cardinals opening day shortstop will be? And I read your ESPN article and you didn’t predict who they would trade for. |
12:26 |
: It’s hard enough predicting how players will do, let alone what uniform they will play.
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12:26 |
: in.
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12:26 |
: If you made me pick, I’d go with Kozma, simply because there are a lot of options and Kozma is on the team and an incumbent that seemed unable to lose his job permanently, no matter how lousy he played
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12:26 |
: But I’d take Field over Kozma.
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12:26 |
Odds the tigers deal scherzer? |
12:26 |
: 10%
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12:26 |
Which player named young would you rather have next season; Michael or delmon? |
12:27 |
: Michael probably. Not playing a defensive position that requires a player to not suck at playing defense.
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12:27 |
I don’t sleep well, but I have awesome and often times lucid dreams. I’ve been taking a tiny amount of melatonin lately. It helps me sleep well, but I don’t remember my dreams. What’s a guy to do? |
12:27 |
: I dunno, never used melatonin. I love lucid dreaming, as it makes the dream storylines wacky.
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12:28 |
: My favorite dreams are the one in which you can use your insistence that it is a dream to your advantage.
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12:28 |
: For instance, I never have a true nightmare because dream Dan will simply refuse to buy the events that are going on.
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12:29 |
: Though it’s harder to do with boring dreams. I had a dream over the weekend that Irish Spring soap was on sale. Not much to do with that.
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12:29 |
Do you see the Braves new stadium as the start of a trend for teams with already modern parks getting new ones or more isolated based on some unfavorable factors with Turner Field? |
12:30 |
: Too early to talk about a trend. It is quite soon to open up a new stadium. Hopefully Cobb Co. isn’t getting too raped.
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12:30 |
What would it take for the Sawx to pry Belt from the G’s? Doubront, WMB, Workman? |
12:30 |
: Honestly, I would want a valuable prospect in return, but who knows who much the Giants really value Belt
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12:31 |
Could Harper end up with a better career than Trout? |
12:31 |
: He could, but Trout’s got a big lead in the bag which is awfully tough to catch.
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12:31 |
I keep hearing Price to the Dodgers rumors, but considering the Dodgers have copious piles of cash laying around and prospects are scarce, wouldn’t they be way better off going hard after Tanaka? It seems like an overpay would be better than losing Seager, Lee, Pederson, et al. and then having to pay Price any way. |
12:31 |
: They could do both. Dodgers are determined not to be bound by payroll and given their GM, reason.
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12:31 |
: It could be ugly in LA come the end of the decade though.
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12:32 |
How concerned are you about David prices velocity loss? |
12:32 |
: It wasn’t really enough to send my klaxons screaming. Would be in the back of the mind.
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12:33 |
How is the attendance on these things post WS? 35% of norm? |
12:33 |
: Until there’s some actually news, not even that.
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12:33 |
: I’m only 15 mins behind the queue right now. At top of seasonal interest, I’d only be up to 12:10 PM by now.
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12:34 |
: During season, I’ll sometimes go 2-230 but in these postseason chats, I’m cutting off fairly strictly between 1 and 110
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12:34 |
I read your piece about Tulo to the Cards on ESPN, but it seems like it’s comparable to buying a new house because a light bulb burned out. Wouldn’t they be fine with one of the cheaper options, especially since they just made it to the World Series with Pete Kozma as the starting shortstop? |
12:35 |
: That’s the kind of attitude that turns good teams into losers.
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12:35 |
: Kozma wasn’t a contributor – they made it to the World Series *in spite of* Kozma.
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12:36 |
: Teams that accept holes are teams that have disappointing seasons.
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12:36 |
: I have a great job writing baseball for ESPN and I was a lazy, underachieving student.
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12:37 |
: That doesn’t mean I’ll advise young people to be lazy and underachieving. I got my job in spite of that.
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12:37 |
: I have good cholesterol and blood pressure despite being overweight and drinking too much beer and eating too much bacon. That I’ve survived so far does not make being overweight, drinking too much beer, and eating too much bacon good ideas or things I need to cut back on.
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12:38 |
Setting aside the fact that neither team is likely to make the deal, would a Kemp for Wright trade be crazy? |
12:39 |
: As you say, it would never happen, but it’s not a completely absurd idea. Dodgers need the safer player and could use a 3B. Upside more valuable to Mets.
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12:39 |
Just realized Miguel Cabrera is 1 day older than Joe Mauer o_O |
12:39 |
assuming Burnett resigns with pirates(though it’s still a big IF), pittsburgh rotation top 5 in NL? |
12:40 |
: I think so. Get a full year of Cole will be nice.
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12:40 |
Which is more likely: Alex Wood sticking as a permanent member of the starting rotation or Dan Uggla putting together a 2-WAR season? |
12:41 |
: Former. Uggla’s defense is uggly.
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12:41 |
: Even if Uggla’s bat rebounds a bit, he’ll still struggle.
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12:41 |
Which would you rather have… championships or a Hall of Fame career? |
12:42 |
: Latter. When it comes down to it, people will remember you as a player more than how many rings you have.
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12:42 |
apparently every QO will be turned down. what do you make of that? any potential bad decisions there? |
12:42 |
: Kendrys Morales.
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12:42 |
Do statistics from the AFL and other winter leagues factor into the Zips projections? |
12:42 |
: They do not. Still in the tinkering stage, translations wise.
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12:43 |
: The numbers there are surprisingly volatile. Even when I have translations, they’d be a small part of the picture
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12:43 |
Jason Bartlett signs MiLB deal with Twins. Now they just need to sign Pierzynski, Johan, Crain, Nathan, and Delmon…the band’s almost back together! |
12:44 |
: At this point, a Knack reunion would be more successful.
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12:44 |
Did the winter meetings officially begin? We should see our first (real) FA signing sometime today probably right? |
12:44 |
: These aren’t the winter meetings, but the GM/owner meetings which don’t usually have a ton of fireworks.
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12:45 |
: The winter meetings are 2nd week in December.
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12:45 |
Considering the Dodgers prospects are more scarce than the Dodgers cash, wouldn’t the Dodgers be better off going hard after Tanaka rather than trading for Price? I keep hearing Price to Dodgers rumors, yet the Rays are going to want a haul. They’d lose Lee, Seager and/or Lee and still have to pay Price. |
12:45 |
: *Logic* would dictate this, but I don’t think the Dodgers hold their prospects as having as much value as you do.
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12:46 |
: This is a Push It to the Limit! team.
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12:46 |
I am not the Jake that asked the confusing Rays/Morneau question. Just wanted that on the record |
12:46 |
If had to choose between trading David Price for prospects, and pushing your target window back a few years, or finding the money to pay him and go for it all while the current team is together, what do you do? |
12:48 |
: If I’m the Rays, I trade him. What I can get in return is more valuable than getting Price’s services for 2/30 instead of market price.
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12:48 |
: If it’s a more general question, it’s hard to answer becuase every situation is different. If you think too rigidly, you’ll ask for trouble.
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12:48 |
Should the White Sox trade Sale or build around him? What about Taillon, Polanco, and Henson for him? Who says no? |
12:49 |
: In that case, I think I’d trade Sale. I’d want to be bowled over and that would do it. I dont’ think the Pirates would do it.
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12:49 |
Rays need 1B & C, good fits there w/ Hanigan & Morneau available, Mauer move helped them w/ Morneau(1 less tm in need of a 1B) but may have hurt them w/ Hanigan(Josmil Pinto may need a back-up/co-catcher) |
12:50 |
: I dont’ think it has any effect on the market as a whole. C/1B was always going to be Pinto/Mauer blend of some type in 2014, they’re just making it official.
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12:50 |
Chris Young make sense for the Pirates on a one year deal? |
12:50 |
: Eh, not my favorite idea. I’d want a team that’s light on guys who play CF.
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12:50 |
I’m the only player to win the World Series, College World Series, Olympic Gold Medal and a collection of Szymborksi Haiku. Suck, it Joe. |
12:52 |
Luis Tiant a HOF’er? |
12:52 |
: I would, though there are a quite a few guys that would have priority, if I have to make choices.
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12:52 |
I’d take Fielder over Kozma at SS |
12:53 |
I took a big step forward this year. Am I going to take another in 14? |
12:53 |
: I think he’ll level off.
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12:53 |
: Not a bad level to level off at.
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12:53 |
Projections for Bogaerts? Easily the most excited I’ve been about a prospect since I can remember (as an obvious Sox fan) |
12:54 |
: When I’m starting to crank out the “official” projections, I’ll tweet Bogaerts. Red Sox go first this year because a Red Sox fan answered a trivia question.
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12:54 |
: Phillies go second, chosen by third-place in my Name That Tune competition earlier this year.
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12:54 |
Assuming A-Rod is suspended, would Dunn to the Yankees make sense? |
12:55 |
: If A-Rod is suspended, I expect them to be more concerned with 3B options.
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12:56 |
: If the full 211 games goes through, I think his career is over.
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12:56 |
What route do you see the Tigers going this winter? The safe route with no big upgrades, or will they make a splash? I could very easily see either scenario. |
12:56 |
: I think they’ll generally play it safe, try to bring back Infante, and overspend for some relief certainty.
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12:56 |
: (Of course, there’s no such thing as certainly in a relief pitcher, but you know what I mean)
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12:56 |
Combo follow-up: If the supposition is that Tigers owner wants to win before he dies, why does he possibly look to move Scherzer? |
12:57 |
: If he can get another now piece. This is why I don’t think it happens.
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12:57 |
Andrelton hit much better than most expected in 13, especially power wise. How does he stack up offensively with the rest of SS? |
12:58 |
: I had him hitting 320/382 coming into the season, and 296/396 isn’t that different, though a little differently shaped.
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12:58 |
: He is an averageish offensive SS though.
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12:58 |
Were the BoSox overly risk-averse in not giving the QO to Salty? Would he really accept? He’s a left-handed hitting catcher with power…seems like he’ll do well enough on the open market to reject that pretty easily right? |
12:58 |
: He might have accepted. I’m not crazy about him.
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12:59 |
: If he has a .370 BABIP again, I’ll eat my dinner (not going to risk having to eat a hat)
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12:59 |
Thanks Dan. Who ultimately is the better major leaguer: Yasiel Puig or Oscar Taveras? Does Taveras’ hit tool outweigh Puig’s edge in athleticism and possibly power? |
1:00 |
: Puig’s probably safer simply because he’s had success in the majors and we haven’t seen Taveras after ankle surgery. I love Taveras though.
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1:00 |
I read a rumor that the Braves would be interested in John Lackey if they couldn’t sign Hudson. The Red Sox are also interested in Hudson. If the Red Sox sign Hudson, is there a chance they could flip Lackey to the Braves? |
1:00 |
: I suspect they hang onto Lackey.
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1:00 |
A few more unfortunate injuries and it could get ugly for the Dodgers well before the end of the decade. |
1:01 |
: They’ve got a lot of TV cash, so they can buy their way out of ugliness.
|
1:01 |
: For awhile.
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1:01 |
Read earlier that the Orioles are interested in pursuing Mike Napoli. Good move? I can’t really see him leaving Boston without a big offer elsewhere. |
1:02 |
: Yes. Good fit in Camden Yards and the team needs a bat.
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1:02 |
Do you use SQL to get the ZiPS projections? |
1:02 |
: No.
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1:02 |
: OK, a few more and it’s time to go.
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1:02 |
Pete Kozma is the next Ozzie Smith. |
1:02 |
twitter.com/dszymborski and find one of my kozma = ozzie smith emails
: If you haven’t seen it, scroll through the images at |
1:02 |
Is Joe Mauer now John Olerud? Not that John Olerud is bad, but being a 1B with that skill set does not profile as a HOF player? |
1:03 |
: Not a bad comp. John Olerud would be a legitimate HoFer if he hit like he did at catcher for a decade.
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1:03 |
: I’m not positive Olerud isn’t a HoF as is.
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1:04 |
What king of return can you see Reds getting for Hanigan? |
1:04 |
: Nothing. They no longer can trade him.
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1:05 |
…So to be clear, at this time of year if you don’t respond to a question, it’s because you don’t want to. |
1:05 |
: Heh, I wouldn’t go that far. I do answer a higher percentage of Qs, though not 100% by any means.
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1:05 |
: I do try to avoid questions that go over stuff I’ve written about recently or intend to write about in the near future.
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1:05 |
more likely to be dealt by Texas: Andrus or Profar? |
1:06 |
: Profar. Andrus ha s abig contract.
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1:06 |
Hi Dan. With the numbers that Cano, Elsbury, et al. are throwing out, does it make Prince Fielder’s deal look more palatable in trade to whoever misses out on one the the FAs? (I’m looking at you, Jack Z) |
1:06 |
: It may very well, though I still think the end of Fielder deal will be ugly.
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1:06 |
The Jays get connected with Gordon Beckham once every few months. Should a hopeful contender take a chance on Beckham at 2B, or do they need to aim much higher? |
1:06 |
: I think Beckham’s a better fit for a bad team needing upset, not a contender needing certainty
|
1:06 |
How much would the Tigers have to throw in to get the Brewers to swap Braun for Prince Fielder? For whatever reason, I keep hearing rumors that the Brewers ownership would like to have Prince back, and wants out of the Braun headache. |
1:07 |
: They’d have to give something of very solid value – Braun’s contract extension, while not ideal, didn’t really kill his value.
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1:07 |
Uggla never had the range to make a good defensive second baseman, so even if he rebounds well offensively he could be a negative value. The Braves really have to upgrade at second, what are the most likely options? (Though knowing the Braves they’ll probably “accept the hole” like you mentioned earlier and go into the year with Uggla and La Stella) |
1:09 |
: Actually, I think you answered your own question. They’ll start with Uggla, I think, and if he continues to suck, won’t hesitate to use La Stella or Pastornicky
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1:09 |
How much money would it take for the Marlins to convince Stanton to sign an extension? |
1:09 |
: Lots. I don’t think they will, though, his next team will
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1:09 |
since there is no shortage of money, how high will the Dodgers payroll get before they win a championship? feel free to make up a new number if it’s too high. |
1:10 |
: The Dodgers fundamental problem is there’s only so far you can push the WS Odds needle. When we’re talking about playoff odds, money scales poorly.
|
1:10 |
would a Price, Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu rotation be one of the best top four rotation of all time? As a Rockies fan, all I can think of is, “yeesh” |
1:11 |
: I’d hate to say all time, but it would compete with one of the best of the generation
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1:11 |
This chat is dreadful on mobile! Ever considered a different platform? |
1:11 |
: I would not be the one doing the considering. I use CoveritLive for my FanGraphs chats and ScribbleLive for ESPN chats, and all are decided by guys named David.
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1:11 |
Next three years: Cole or Fernandez? |
1:12 |
: Fernandez. Again, beer v. tacos question!
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1:12 |
Is Lance Lynn enough for a young SS or will the Cards have to deal Shelby Miller? |
1:12 |
: They’ll have to include one of the big guys. Lynn doesn’t have *that* much value.
|
1:12 |
I see people say Morales could turn down the QO hoping for 2/20 instead of 1/14. Is that really better? Get the 1/14, then there’s a good chance of getting at least 1/6, right? |
1:13 |
: Yeah, it’s crazy talk. If Morales was thinking of a 2/20 contract, I think he would have taken 1/14
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1:14 |
Will the Reds be able to get anything decent for Hanigan? They’re in a tight spot with losing Choo and not having much money to spend. What moves can they make to help them compete? |
1:14 |
: As I referenced before, I don’t think they can trade him for value any longer.
|
1:15 |
: He’s a 33 year-old part-time catcher coming off a huge down year.
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1:15 |
If Taveras takes over CF for the Cardinals in 2014, does Jon Jay stay as the 4th OF, or does he have value elsewhere? |
1:15 |
: I think he’ll be a 4th OF type
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1:16 |
At $23 million a year for a 1B, the Mauer contract seems like a horrible deal. |
1:16 |
: Not ideal, but Mauer’s offense would have been star-level 1B 4 of th elast 5 years
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1:18 |
you’ll eat me anyway. Shenanigans! |
1:18 |
: OK, then I’ll eat *2* dinners that night.
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1:18 |
That Kozma picture is no where near the top of your twitter. I clicked ‘more’ like 10 times and nothing. Jeeeez. |
1:19 |
: It’s the 8th picture.
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1:19 |
: So you visited no more than 7 images, which is not like 10.
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1:19 |
: Ed Sprague haikus are 10.
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1:19 |
The Fielder deal is not already ugly? |
1:19 |
: Well, the ugliest *part*
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1:20 |
Can we downgrade the Braves all on principle by squandering my “public funding” for a new stadium they’ll never fill anyway? |
1:20 |
: Preaching to the choir, man.
|
1:20 |
: But I’m a libertarian, which means 90% of you guys hate my politics.
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1:20 |
Self-answering commentors, making chats more efficient!!!! |
1:20 |
: Yeah, why don’t more of you answer your own questions? I could put it on autopilot on concentration on delicious lunch drinks!
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1:21 |
No more having to choose between us, it’s lunch time! |
1:21 |
: I have a piece to write, so I cannot have an afternoon nap today!
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1:21 |
Have you played the Mass Effect series? Thoughts? |
1:22 |
: I haven’t actually. It’s not really a future-y guy when it comes to gaming. I’ve never even played Starcraft.
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1:23 |
To satisfy the Duda-ites out there.. Duda gonna end up playing 1b and hitting 30 dingers this year? |
1:23 |
: I think in the end, he stays in the outfield playing terrible defense and Mets hang onto Ike.
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1:23 |
: On that note, time to end this chat for the week. Thanks all for joining!
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1:24 |
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1:24 |
That Kozma email is hilarious. Maybe they should talk Ozzie Smith into coming back and playing SS for them next year, it’d probably still be an upgrade. |
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.