Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/3/14

Dan Szymborski: Baseball writer finds one crazy old tip for weight loss!

Dan Szymborski: Consume less food energy than you burn.

Dan Szymborski: (A tip I do not take)

Dan Szymborski: G’noon gang, let’s get this party started.

Comment From Guest
What is the answer to the question you think a cubs fan might be the most likely to ask?

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

Dan Szymborski: The second most likely answer to the question a Cubs fan might be the most likely to ask is likely no.

Dan Szymborski: Yes/no questions make up the plurality of votes in existence.

Dan Szymborski: Errr of questions.

Comment From Jake
What is the NYY plan this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Awkwardness.

Comment From Guest
I’ve lost 20 pounds this year cleaning apartments

Dan Szymborski: I have a cleaning lady. She always seems annoyed that every dish in the house seems to accumulate in my office.

Comment From BobbyS
First impressions of Beyond Earth, go!

Dan Szymborski: Fun!

Dan Szymborski: Though I seem to be frigging awful at that health statistic.

Dan Szymborski: My Civilization tendency is to be an aggressive-but-peaceful expansionist and even with Civ 5 cracking down on that with happiness, so far it seems like it was easier to get around that (once you hit colosseum, circus, etc, you have a bunch of ways to get happiness)

Comment From THE Guest
What’s going on with Yasmany Tomas? He’s had two new workouts recently and now there’s word that he might sign a four year deal. When is this going to happen?

Dan Szymborski: Actually, I thought it would happen during the playoffs.

Comment From Player Development Nerd
Thanks for your very careful and measured tone during last week’s chat. It must’ve been difficult to talk through the Taveras situation in this forum, with little time to edit or consider your thoughts before publishing them.

Dan Szymborski: It was a rough chat. I would have preferred not talking about such a sad thing as well, but there were just too many question.

Comment From Xolo
Of Upton, Cespedes and Heyward – next year’s big FA bats – which one will hit the most over the life of the contract they’ll like get?

Dan Szymborski: Heyward.

Comment From GSon
GA Dan.. You’ve heard of Yoan Moncada.. is he closer to Yasiel/Soler or Arrabuearrena/Guerrero.. ?

Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to tell with Moncada given how young he is.

Dan Szymborski: The later two were far more established, especially Guerrero

Comment From Guest
Who is your fave of the available big 3 free agent pitchers in terms being worth the money?

Dan Szymborski: Scherzer

Comment From mtsw
Rumor has it Orioles are close to extending Markakis in the neighborhood of 4/40-4/48. Smart move?

Dan Szymborski: I would not like that. While there’s an argument that overpaying on a short-term deal makes sense, a 4 year commitment just doesn’t.

Dan Szymborski: When it comes down to it, Markakis in the next few years is a fill-in until you can find someone better, not someone you actually want to commit to playing. He’s only going to get worse, not better.

Comment From Guest
Why were you admin privileges revoked at BTF?

Dan Szymborski: That’s kind of random.

Dan Szymborski: Some years ago, I deleted a thread instead of closing it after I was personally threatened. A couple trolls flipped out and Jim removed my admin access until he could talk to me on the phone and find out what happened.

Dan Szymborski: After which he restored it. I had expressed a serious distaste of the political threads existing on BTF, which was a source of a lot of disagreements between the two of us. In the end, instead of fighting with about it nonstop (we’ve been friends more than 15 years), we agreed it didn’t make any sense for me to still be an active part of the website, given that I wasn’t writing anything for the site anyway, since my primary employment is with ESPN.

Comment From Xolo
Can Gattis play first base?

Dan Szymborski: He’s played a handful of games, though I dont’ think I saw any of them.

Dan Szymborski: I imagine he’d be OK unless proven otherwise.

Comment From CardsFan
Where will the Cubs payroll be next season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they have a set figure in mind (which is something I believe makes sense, teams are too rigid about considering payroll to be a cost). I think they’ll be more aggressive this year and the eventual payroll will result from how successful they are.

Dan Szymborski: If they want to, say, give $25 million a year to, say, Scherzer, and it doesn’t happen, I don’t expect them to simply spend it elsewhere just to hit a figure.

Comment From Player Development Nerd
As for the Cardinals, what is the most likely outfield combination for next year? Holliday, Bourjos, and Jay, with Jay in RF? Or will Grichuk supplant Bourjos?

Dan Szymborski: I’m guessing Holliday, Jay, Grichuk. THough I’m still not at that point I like thinking about the Cards OF.

Comment From Pennsy
Is there a fit on the Yankees for Jayson Werth if the Nats decide to shed a little payroll?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly. It would fit with the Yankees theme of paying handsomely for the end of a player’s career. I think Nats are inclined to hang onto him though.

Comment From Jake deBomb
you have a sense of why Headley might be considering the Yankees if ARod seems set to go back to 3B? There are obviously other opportunities out there for 3B jobs

Dan Szymborski: If the Yankees offer Headley enough to that he’s willing to stay, I imagine it would be enough that they plan to have him as a the full-time starter.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget, A-Rod was in a Wile E. Coyote-type decline *before* he missed most of a season due to injury and *before* he missed a second season due to a suspension. And he turns 40 a couple weeks after the ASB next year. I think at this point, they have to consider whatever they get from him as gravy and not really counton him.

Comment From Billy
As a Twins fan, I’m getting pretty depressed with the latest Buxton injury and Sano never even being allowed to attend the AFL. When will either provide any legit good news?

Dan Szymborski: Just be happy that Buxton’s injuries don’t appear to be the career threatening variety.

Comment From Pennsy
Hypothetical world where Jayson Werth is a free agent this year, and he wants $63m over three years. Who gives it to him?

Dan Szymborski: I think several large-market teams take the risk.

Comment From zurzles
is there sense in keeping a guy in the rotation because he has the salary for it? if you think a decent starter with an ~8m salary (i’m thinking bud norris very specifically right now) could become a killer bullpen arm and you have other rotation options, do you do it? maybe teams are more likely to after seeing was Davis and friends did for KC on a national stage?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: If you’re paying an $8 million regardless, you need to use the player where he is most valuable to the team, be it starting, relieving, sitting at home eating Bugles, or mucking up another team.

Comment From GSon
Michael Morse, if he doesn’t stay with the SF Giants goes to a. Orioles, b. Texas, c. Cleveland, d. name the place not listed.

Dan Szymborski: I can see him staying with SF.

Comment From Ceej
Do the Buccos think that Harrison is legit enough that Pedro is the Opening Day 1B?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they see him as having earned that shot, unless they have a really good opportunity at 1st otherwise.

Comment From Vslyke
Chances Ervin Santana accepts a QO?

Dan Szymborski: I think pretty good.

Comment From Jim
So the Twins are going to go for ‘big change’ by staying within the organization and hiring Molitor for manager. He’s a HOFer, local guy, and close personal friend of the Pohlads. How does staying within help the Twins when they need a fresh view of things?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t. I get little impression that the Twins care about a fresh view of things. They’re a stay-the-course type organization, in good or bad.

Comment From mtsw
Beyond Earth is fun but can’t help feeling there are some obvious gameplay oversights that I’ll need them to release a $30 DLC pack to address…

Comment From Oren
I kind of understand why the Jays traded Adam Lind, but did is it a bad trade from a value-perspective?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Marco Estrada has extremely limited value.

Comment From zurzles
any chance the O’s actually try to upgrade their already-stuffed (with ehhhhh pitchers) rotation? will my brandon mccarthy dream be realized?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine that any upgrades will not be rotation varieies.

Comment From Guest
In Civ5, you don’t have to load units on to transporters. How much do you miss doing that?

Dan Szymborski: I love it.

Dan Szymborski: I loved that units could get implied transportation.

Dan Szymborski: Micromanaging those kinds of logistics was never that much fun.

Comment From Chris
Will anything happen regarding Kenta Maeda this year, or will teams have to wait til next year for him to be posted? Who would be most likely to make a run at him?

Dan Szymborski: Lot of whispers about it being unlikely he’ll be posted. At this point, your guess is as good as mine.

Comment From Guest
Projections have never given up on Hosmer. Do you still like him too?

Dan Szymborski: Everything I say about Hosmer turns out to be wrong, so I dont’ want to jinx the guy further.

Comment From GSon
Would a one year pillow contract for Justin Masterson (eg 1 year 12 MM) be appropriate or would that be a risk only teams with more money than brains would consider?

Dan Szymborski: In the right situation, ti’s definitely worth it. You can risk more on a 1-year deal.

Comment From Guest
Do you think the jays are serious about Russel Martin? will he be the benefactor of a bidding war?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Jays will get in bidding wars with anybody over anybody.

Comment From neal
what would marco estrada’s HR/9 be in rogers center?

Dan Szymborski: A lot, but Miller Park has also regularly had among the best HR park factors in baseball.

Comment From Travis
Can you explain the arbitration process a little bit for me?

Dan Szymborski: There’s quite a lot, is there something in particular you’re curious about?

Dan Szymborski: The basics are the player and team each submit a player (the team has CBA-required minimums it has to honor for stuff like pay cuts) and if they don’t come to an agreement, there’s an arbitration hearing in which certain things are allowed to be brought up (for example, press opinion about a player is not allowed outside of the press-awarded awards).

Dan Szymborski: The arbitrator has to choose one figure or the other (this part of the process to encourage settlements before arbitration)

Comment From Harry Hardahn
My friend lost this week in fantasy to a guy who started 3 players on bye week. What’s the best way to mock him?

Dan Szymborski: You have to be creative in you mocking. You would know the best way to cause psychological damage to your friend, at least moreso than I would.

Comment From Vic
Do you feel B. Drury and T. Story could be quality MLBers or will they only be servicable role players?

Dan Szymborski: Too soon to call them role players, though Story was extremely disappointing after his promotion.

Comment From Bryan
What kind of return do you think the Padres could get if they dealt Kennedy, Cashner, or Ross?

Dan Szymborski: More for Cashner or Ross. Not much for Kennedy.

Comment From CardsFan
I 2nd what the person said about the Taveras situation. Well done.

Dan Szymborski: Appreciate it. I’m not known for being tactful, but I was very careful.

Comment From mtsw
Should the Orioles tender De Aza (assuming his arb falls somewhere in the $5M-$7M range?)

Dan Szymborski: I would tender him. 1-year deals allow you to be more aggressive with how much $ you’re willing to pay

Comment From BobbyS
Ah, it’s that GSon again! Confusing me with myself!

Comment From Bret
Rumors today have the Jays as a suitor for Russell Martin, which would involve shifting Dioner Navarro to at least a part-time DH job. Obviously, such a move would be judged on what kind of contract Martin requires, but does it seem like a good move in theory?

Dan Szymborski: In theory, but they have mor epressing needs.

Comment From Michael
Who comes along from TB with Maddon? Or too soon to tell?

Dan Szymborski: Too soon.

Comment From Matt
As many things as Russell Martin brings to the table, it wouldn’t behoove CHC to commit 4 yrs to him at this point on their developmental curve, right?

Dan Szymborski: For an older catcher, it’s not something I would do.

Comment From Steve (Baltimore)
Do you think an Orioles trade of Ubaldo for another bad contract (BJ Upton?) is possible and makes sense?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the bad contract. Specifically for Upton makes no sense.

Dan Szymborski: I have more faith in Jimenez being good in the future than Upton. And Upton’s usable scenarios involves him playing in center, wh ich wouldnt’ happen in Baltimore

Comment From Jake deBomb
and do what with ARod at 25M per?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t matter – they have to pay him regardless. He’s a sunk cost.

Dan Szymborski: The best scenario for the Yankees with A-Rod is him testing positive in a drug test.

Comment From mtsw
If the Yankees agreed to eat 80% of his salary, what would the trade market for A-Rod look like? Given his popularity among the NY fanbase, they’d probably be okay with paying for him to get off the team, no?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’m even interested in A-Rod at $5 million a year unless my team has *very* specific need

Comment From War2d2
This is probably a question for Neil Weinberg’s chat, but here goes anyway: I wanted to see what Headley’s wRC+ numbers with NYY were, but I can’t see an easy way to see team splits on a player page. Am I just blind, or does this not exist? Separate question: chances that Headley is the fallback for SFG if Sadoval gets paid somewhere else?

Dan Szymborski: Uh…clicking partial seasons?

Dan Szymborski: under Dashboard/Customize

Dan Szymborski: (Padres 90, NYY 121)

Dan Szymborski: Or am I not understanding what you want

Comment From Michael
This is now the third time I’ve heard this bizarre Jayson Werth hypothetical in a Fangraphs chat. Pennsy, I’m dying to know why this moves you so.

Comment From Michael
Lost their GM and manager after worst season since 2007. Is it time for TB to go for a complete overhaul?

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, they’re still close enough to compete. Idont’ think it’s overhaul time–yet.

Dan Szymborski: But we may get there at some point – the Rays drafting has been considerably weaker in recent years, even when you take into consideration they’re picking lower in each round than they used to

Comment From Hugo Z
You really believe Santana would take the QO? Surely he could get 40 mil from somewhere.

Dan Szymborski: He’s not any more desirable this year than he was last year, when it comes down to it.

Dan Szymborski: He’s going to have the same problem – teams value their high draft picks.

Comment From mtsw
Problem with Civ5 is that it feels too much like you’re playing an elaborate board game and not enough like you’re experiencing history or managing an empire. Beyond Earth’s sci-fi premise seems to mitigate that objection, for me at least.

Comment From Guest
In Civ 5 I like ot liverate cities and return them to their previous owners. The United States has caused me to be anti-puppet government

Comment From Guest
CALL OF DUTY! BLARGH!!!!

Comment From Billy
Will the Twins “stay the course” plan include September call ups of Sano and Buxton if both stay healthy?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

Comment From Billy
What’re the chances that Joc gets 500 ABs in the majors next year? Does he do much with what he does get?

Dan Szymborski: More than there was before. There’s at least a chance that a new front office cleans out the OF mess.

Comment From Marca
How much is Josh Johnson worth in 2015?

Dan Szymborski: A year deal but not for much – every year the odds of that upside coming back become far less.

Comment From Herbert
Both teams could have won the World Series pending the outcome of Salvador Perez’s 9th inning at-bat last Wednesday, and that hasn’t happened since 2001!

Comment From mtsw
Beyond changes to fences/distances, what causes park factors to change over time? OPACY in particular seems to have become less hitter friendly in the last few years. Just noise in the sample, or could changes in wind patterns or something be enough to cause that?

Dan Szymborski: Other parks for one. Small changes to construction of the park or the hitters background and stuff like this can be surprisingly large at times

Comment From Bartholomew
Steamer has Oscar Taveras projected at 1 PA in 2015…that’s a very bold prediction

Dan Szymborski: I think he posted that before Taveras’s death.

Dan Szymborski: I will not be projecting Taveras as either part of the official ZiPS set or as a source of speculation.

Dan Szymborski: I project players for the year after they retire because retirements aren’t always set in stone (people got annoyed that I projected Clemens the year after his first retirement and that turned out to be a good idea)

Dan Szymborski: And there’s no real downside to projecting a guy who just retired. It’s not like one last Chipper projection had any cruel hint to it – he chose to retire

Comment From mtsw
More people are killed via preventable deaths in film production than are killed playing football yearly. Why is there no public hysteria about the safety/morality of going to the movies similar to that around pro football head injuries?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody sees the stunt actors.

Comment From Michael
Kershaw comes in third on Fangraphs’ own WAR leaderboards, yet is voted player of the year. He’s not even FG’s top SP in terms of WAR. I get the divergence between non-sabrmetric places and various competing WAR theories, but this is FG’s own way of determining player value, and yet it’s not being embraced?

Dan Szymborski: FG has a way of determining WAR but it’s hardly deteremining the individual opinons of the writers

Comment From Rob
Beyond Earth is alright, but half the fun of Civ is watching Gandhi nuke people. Gotta wait for the mods to roll out…

Comment From #BringBackNotGraphs
“Library Update: Complete List of Offensive Statistics” that headline had me thinking NotGraphs was still alive, if only

Comment From mtsw
Is there a logical justification for why sites like FanDuel are legal but vanilla ATS betting isn’t? Fantasy football seems no less random than picking winners and FanDuel has fairly irresponsible seeming ads (promising get rich quick returns).

Dan Szymborski: I am a libertarian, so I am completely in favor of legalized betting on anything two adult, consenting parties (whether individual or cooperating collectively) wish to be on.

Comment From mtsw
Given his potential to be good in the future, what’s a fair value for Ubaldo right now? I.e. how much value would the Orioles have to package with him to unload his contract right now?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS still thinks he’s worth 3/29.

Comment From ARod
I consider myself more of a funk cost https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From baltic wolf
Why can’t the Yankees buy A-Rod out? Pay him 25-30 of the 61 million owed to retire or walk. Or threaten him with 3 years of riding the bus at AAA.

Dan Szymborski: They can’t threaten him with 3 years of riding the bus at AAA.

Dan Szymborski: Or teams would do that.

Dan Szymborski: With A-Rod’s service time, the Yankees would have to offer to release him. But A-Rod’s contract is guaranteed even in the even that they release him.

Dan Szymborski: Even a specific *clause* is hard to exercise. The Rockies ended up settling with Neagle for like 90% of what he was owed and they terminated him for an actual reason.

Dan Szymborski: There is about a 0% chance that the Yankees would be able to use leverage on A-Rod in this manner.

Comment From Bret
Is Gerardo Parra a good bounceback candidate? Brewers lineup seems pretty well filled out and he’s too expensive to be a bench guy, so he may be an interesting trade candidate.

Dan Szymborski: Decent, but he’s unlikely to be *that* exciting. He wasn’t really *that* much worse offensively than he typically is.

Dan Szymborski: As I said last year about Parra, too many people suddenly decided that he was a true +30 defender when something +10-15 would be more reasonable

Comment From Guest
THE PROBLEM WITH CIV5 is that it takes 30 minutes to load a game. I have to start it up before meals to play after. Or just leave it running constnatly

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never had the issue.

Dan Szymborski: Older CPU? Civ 5 can be really mean to older CPUs.

Dan Szymborski: (I have a 3770k in my main rig, a 3930k in the ZiPS SuperComputer)

Comment From Travis
I think I’m trying to figure out how players are third time arbitration eligible. Once they reach arbitration is it essentially one year contracts until they are out of arbitration, unless the team wants a longer contract? Once a player is past six years service time, contracts become solely offered by the team instead of a possible outside arbitrator?

Dan Szymborski: They’re one-year-contracts (with possible spring terminations for a % of the salary). Players and teams can agree to their own contracts though.

Dan Szymborski: Past six years, arbitration isn’t in the mix.

Dan Szymborski: It was possibility until the new FA rules, but rarely invoked.

Comment From baltic wolf
Cooler weather probably affected Camden Yards this year. Ball jumps off the bat when air is warmer–kinetic energy of air molecules–and humid. Humid air contains less diatomic nitrogen and oxygen, more water vapor. A molecule of water is much lighter than O2 or N2.

Dan Szymborski: “Humid air is denser!” is one of those things we had to shout down a lot in the peak Usenet days.

Comment From Guest
Wait, beyond earth is a Civ game? I thought it was a movie. I must investigate

Dan Szymborski: It’s essentially Alpha Centauri II that they don’t want to call Alpha Centauri II.

Comment From Guest
The SFPD really should have Bumgarner ride horse through the parade

Comment From Phil
Is ZiPS based on depth chart like Steamer and can you tweak manually tweak it? I find it strange that those guys don’t seem to manually tweak the results so that players who were injured, etc. but will obviously play next year are not given full-season projections.

Dan Szymborski: For the basic projections, I keep ZiPS ignorant of future usage patterns by design.

Dan Szymborski: For fantasy projections that I do and the various projections, I *do* consider depth charts.

Comment From Michael
And not only do the countless long-term brain injuries drastically outnumber stunt deaths (if the deaths resultant don’t so outnumber), but also the systemic problems with football (issues of race and class andc.) are not present wrt stunt actors.

Dan Szymborski: I feel like I missed the first half o fyour comment somewhere

Comment From BobbyS
Is that why ZiPS ‘hates’ my players… because it’s run on Intel?!

Dan Szymborski: AMD has had a lot of great CPUs, but unless you’re running a casual-use APU build, it’s really hard to include them in builds right now.

Comment From re Civ 5
Can I just say, if you think you know if Baltimore will be cooler or warmer than last year, you are probably very arrogant and maybe a jerk

Dan Szymborski: Well, statistically it’s likely to be warmer, given that it was a much-cooler-than-average summer.

Comment From mtsw
The Orioles had huge day/night splits this season. Is that a sustainable thing or just chance? Is it possible the 2014 had some vampires on the team or something?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t read too much into it.

Comment From Michael
was in continuation of your comment above abt why football gets more attention than stunt deaths.

Comment From The Big Dipper
AMD is for poor people

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, they’re not even great for budget builds now. People have had easy success overclocking the @#%# out of the Pentium G3258 and Intel’s been pretty wink-wink about allowing motherboard manufacturers to allow overclocking on an H97 rather than Z97 only as they’re supposed to.

Comment From Vic Romano
AMD = Adirondack Mountain Daredevils?

Comment From Forsyth
To guy looking for Headley’s partial season numbers – Also look at Game Log and you can filter by whatever dates you want, be it with NYY only, or 6/1 – 6/17. Anything. Even cross seasons.

Comment From mtsw
Film production deaths aren’t just stuntmen. A production assistant was killed this year when hit by a train on set (they were shooting on train tracks without permission). And it’s hard to get data on non-union crew members killed but it happens more often than you’d think.

Comment From jda
What are the next big changes to ZiPS on the horizon? Obviously nothing for 2015, but I know you’ve hinted that things are in the works a year or three down the road and you’re just very conservative about implementing them before you’re convinced they add value to the projections.

Dan Szymborski: Right now, more and more pbp type stuff.

Dan Szymborski: While I do have access to, let’s just say “more advanced” things floating around right now, I’m still a few years away from really having a handle on just how useful some of the cool things are.

Comment From Reginald Crassly
Do you see the Mariners making a run at Cespedes?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see it as a great fit. He gets too much of his value from homers.

Comment From jda
You need an unpaid ZiPS intern! 😛

Dan Szymborski: I know it’s a joke, but working from home, I can’t have an intern.

Dan Szymborski: And if they did give me an intern, we’d probably just go out drinking at noon or something.

Comment From GSon
Yankees Orioles and Indians put together a three way deal where Swisher goes to the Orioles (with $ 6 MM), Ubaldo returns to the Indians and Jose Ramirez and Steve Lombardozi go to the NYY’s.. Who messes up this beautiful reunion of Ubaldo with his pitching coach, Swisher’s return to the east coast and AL East and the new keystone combination for the Bronx Bomners?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I want to give Ramirez for that.

Comment From Michael
sure, it’s not just stuntmen — doesn’t change points of why football (rightfully) gets more attn

Comment From CardsFan
The Cards will have to add some bullpen depth but other than that, do they make and moves?

Dan Szymborski: I think they *try* to but there are fewer awesome free agents than teams that wish to sign awesome free agents.

Comment From CardsFan
Better beer Bourbon County or Dark Lord by Three Floyds

Dan Szymborski: The goose island one that’s a really nice stout? Or is there another one?

Dan Szymborski: I do enjoy that one. I have not tried the other one.

Comment From BobbyS
Intern no… but could probably get away with an ‘office assistant’ right? I like drinks at noon.

Comment From Guest
thinking of making a machine out of a raspberry pi and some old parts i have lying around; you ever do anything like this?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never built a raspberry pi thing.

Dan Szymborski: Usually people ask me for gaming builds.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to sign off for another week (Hearthstone championship day 2 is starting too!)

Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find my work at ESPN.com, projections and chats here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: Yada yada, you guys know the drill.

Dan Szymborski: I should give you guys a homework assignment.