Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/1/22

Dan Szymborski: And started, the chat has!@

DanIsOurMan: Love love love Zips season! Can you dig into Cruz’s projection a bit more? Surprised his 80th percentile didn’t show more power?

Dan Szymborski: Remember, it’s the 80th percentile projection overall, not the 80th percentile projection of a specific aspect

Dan Szymborski: If he hit the 80th percentile for all his measurables then it would be a higher than 80th percentile projection!

DanIsOurMan: What’s the schedule for the roll out?

Dan Szymborski: Four or five a week

Dan Szymborski: oh good

Dan Szymborski: Damn text

Dan Szymborski: Four or five a week.

Dan Szymborski: I keep the order a secret, simply because otherwise I get a ton of people asking and trying to convince me to move their favorite team up

Dan Szymborski: So completely random

ZiPs: Have you considered putting out projections for all the free agents in one place. I’m sure there are a bunch of team dependencies.

Dan Szymborski: Well, they all get updates when tehy sign!

DanIsOurMan: Zips loved Bryan Ramos going into last season, and he was fine but not incredible last year, I assume that dinged his projection a bit?

Dan Szymborski: He basically held serve this year

Dirk Diggler: Since the Giants seem to be hesitant to sign any pitcher to a long term deal should they try trading for someone in hopes they can be the next Gausman/Rodon? Someone like Lucas Giolito?

Dan Szymborski: Giolito would be a fun eventual add

9761014: Do you think one of the SS will get a 10 year contract? I assume ZiPS would think no. Was Seager’s 10 year deal an outlier or what we should expect?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect no

DanIsOurMan: The Zips top 100 is maybe my favorite article on FG every year, what date should I heart on my calendar this year? And, could you extend it to a top 200 for us mere mortals? Or at least go a bit deeper on the SPs? Again, love the work you do!

Dan Szymborski: I hesitate farther because once you get really deep into the prospects, there are going to be granularity issues on the lower-level prospects

Scotty: Hello Dan, will 2023 ZIPs projections be available to download once they are complete? I’m looking to use them for some fantasy projections. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: They always are!

Scarp: Who makes the NLCS first, Reds or Pirates?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly Pirates

Scarp: Dan, why doesn’t my toaster work?

Dan Szymborski: Is it plugged in?

Dan Szymborski: Does the coil turn orange?

Dan Szymborski: Note that I cannot fix your toaster

Guest: Can ZIPS tell me what current player is most like Mo Vaughn?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, I don’t think I can do it reversified

Dan Szymborski: Where is everyone? This is like a quarter of the audience of the chat! Is the link not working?

Guest: Hayden Wesneski zip better or worse than you thought?

Dan Szymborski: Better

Liz: Let’s say the Red Sox see the ZIPS depth chart projection and decide to free up some room on their 40-man roster by bringing Hoscabec to life … but could, for some arbitrary reason, only choose the best aspects from each player instead of adding them together … would they have an everyday quality first baseman or would they still need to bring in another one?

Dan Szymborski: I think if they just chose all the Casas parts they’d have a decent starting 1B

Dan Szymborski: with upside

Jake Alu: Who am I?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I made one of my favorite gifs from that

Dan Szymborski:

Ryan O’Hearn: I must have incriminating photos of someone, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think more than photo, there have to be documents too

very legal, very cool: any rule 5 guys you have your eyes on? The rule 5 is the coolest draft in sports. Rule 5 > Rule 4!

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t done a final check

Dan Szymborski: did the Pirates add Gorski?

Guest: Does ZiPS have any confidence in an Ian Anderson rebound next season?

Dan Szymborski: I would call it cautiously optimistic as a projection

Hakuna M: Have you read the novel Babel, and what is your favorite genre?

Dan Szymborski: I have not. Assuming we’re not talking “literature” or non-fiction, I tend to like historical fiction and low fantasy

jillybohnson: Any current Free Agents that ZiPS seems to like way more or way less than the consensus?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, ZiPS doesn’t seem too far off the crowdsource of the top free agents

Dan Szymborski: MAYBE it’s more negative on Thors?

Dan Szymborski: Thor

Jonathan: Wild guess:  how many years ahead of public-facing baseball research (I know, a gigantic umbrella with lots of subjects) is the weakest MLB analytics group, and how many years ahead is the strongest?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d call it a point on a spectrum like in a race

Dan Szymborski: There are some things that the public focuses on that teams really don’t because that stuff is wildly solved

Dan Szymborski: Like as far as I know, teams dont’ put a ton of effort in mean projections

Dan Szymborski: Where teams are really ahead is injury/biomechanics stuff

Dan Szymborski: and a lot of that is they have specific internal data

Dan Szymborski: One advantage of public research is that you can go searching for stuff teams aren’t necessarily looking at because they’re “locally” focused on their organization

Dan Szymborski: When I do something really out there like predicting how Rowdy Tellez would do at short, that’s the stuff I get calls about

Derek: How often are you tinkering with ZiPS? And is “production” ZiPS constantly changing or do you wait to do updates in bigger chunks?

Dan Szymborski: It varies depending on what I have an idea on and what I want to work on

Dan Szymborski: there’s always a version of ZiPS that’s a few years away from me trusting it

Dan Szymborski: Except for the JAWS stuff, which is really just configuring results a certain way

Dan Szymborski: everything in thsi year’s ZiPS was basically researched in 2019 or so

DanIsOurMan: I know you don’t have Meg’s godlike powers over all that is FanGraphs (at this point it seems like Appelman is a hidden factotum), but could you pass along a request for the Rosterresource Power Rankings to be included in the MILB tables? Or at least viewable on one screen within RR? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I can pass along that request

Dan Szymborski: and David, while away at the moment, is *very* active on the site, even if you don’t see him day-to-day!

Enderman: Is Endy the #1 catching prospect?

Dan Szymborski: I can say quite confidently yes

Dan Szymborski: in ZiPS that is

Dan Szymborski: Oh wait

Dan Szymborski: #2

Dan Szymborski: so not so confidently

Dan Szymborski: I accidentally had “rookie” filter instead “no MLB time” filter

Josh R: Some people won’t like this question but have you looked at the Braves contract extensions and the vast difference in value to the Caucasian players vs the African-American/Latin players?  It is disturbing to me but I’m also not sure what to make of it.

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Dan Szymborski: It’s an area that’s a bit beyond my expertise

Dan Szymborski: But just spitballing, I expect it’s more a class thing than a racial thing. I suspect if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signs a long-term deal, it’s going to be far closer to what he would get as a free agent than, say, Ozzie Albies

Dan Szymborski: And I’m really not sure how you would work around this

Dan Szymborski: Other than, say, more support for minor leaguer salaries and pensions

Dan Szymborski: But the basic difference between the fallback options of an upper middle-class kid drafted out of a California college than a kid signed to an amateur deal out of the Dominican Republic are going to realistically be very, very different no matter what you do

Dan Szymborski: And again, I’m not sure what you do about that

Regina George: Why is ZiPS still trying to make Kevin Padlo happen?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry!

J-ROD Squad: Curtis Mead of Tampa Bay-Baseball America has him now as 70 hit, 60 power prospect. What sayeth zips 2023 and beyond projection?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say he will rank well

Jung Bong Jovi: How much wood would Kerry Wood carry if Kerry Wood would carry wood?

Dan Szymborski: 100 pounds comfortably?

Dan Szymborski: He’s a 45-year-old man, probably of at least above-average physical fitness

Josh R: Beyond the point where they would have reached free agency Matt Olson got 5 years and $110 mil. Austin Riley the same 5/110. But Acuna only 24/68, Albies 4/28 (unbelievable still), Harris 5/67.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure you can use Olson here because his FA was much closer

Dan Szymborski: but Riley definitely did better

Dan Szymborski: but so did Julio Rodriguez

Moose_Bolton: If you could go back 15 years and tell young Dan one thing about baseball, what do you think would shock him the most?

Dan Szymborski: Probably that I’m making a good living doing this

Just Fowl: Who will be responsible for operation of the pitch clock? I see the potential for shenanigans.

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea really!

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully a sleepy 95 year old man because of the shenanigans

Dan Dan Noodles: How do you spell your last name?

Dan Szymborski: only 95% accurately

Dan Szymborski: I frequently type Syzmborski if I’m typing too fast

Dan Dan Noodles: The BBQ chicken in Portugal is really good. But make sure you ask for the piri piri sauce. They only give it on request.

Dan Szymborski: I love piri piri!

Dan Szymborski: Did you ever see the Nando’s Piri Piri dictators commercial? I laughed my ass off when I saw it

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Dan Noodles: If you could be any single brick in the old Fox Hills Mall, which one would it be?

Dan Szymborski: One on top? Easier to escape?

Dan: Orioles are going to trade Santander + to Miami for Pablo Lopez, sign Bassitt (4 years 80 mill) and sign Brandon Belt and AJ Pollock.

Dan Szymborski: There are worse ideas. Well, Pollock is one

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see any need to go after Belt and I just don’t want Pollock

Scarp: Why did Pollock opt out? Did he hate that clubhouse so much?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. ZiPS certainly did not think it was a good idea

Guest: Who steals more MLB bags this year, Esteury Ruiz or Jorge Mateo?

Dan Szymborski: I think Mateo as his playing time is more clear cut

Dan Szymborski: I think Brewers work Ruiz in gradually

Dan Szymborski: Though ZiPS likes him more than either Taylor or Mitchell

Skip: All Your ZIP Are Belong To Us

Guest: Its a Dan good day when we can read your chats! In your opinion is correa or turner a better fit for LA (with Xander being option 2 to 1A/B)?

Dan Szymborski: Correa

Dan Szymborski: I think there are reasons to like both as players

Dan Szymborski: But Correa, you *know* he’s very likely to have full buy-in with the Dodgers and their nerdiness

Jay: How big a difference does Trea Turner make in Phillies team projection if he lands there?  Seems like he’s exactly what they need to round out that lineup.

Dan Szymborski: A huge amount! The Phillies getting Turner would be amazingly awesome

Dan Szymborski: They’re right in that range where marginal wins are the most valuable

Dan Dan Noodles: Have you ever had Yank Sing chili sauce? Literally the best taste in the world. [2nd is freshly squeezed pink grapefruit juice.]

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Guest: American top end players are often coming in with their millions in signing bonuses from the draft so they have leverage in that they can afford to wait on their big payday. International players often don’t get that level of money so they are more likely to be motivated to sacrifice future earnings for present earnings. Just a theory

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s an issue teoo

Dan Szymborski: In the end, leverage is going to rule transactions

Guest: What about George Washington American Cincinnatus?

Dan Szymborski: Yup, though others have made that comparison before I believe

Ambivalent White Sox fan: You seemed, fairly, pessimistic on the ChiSox org in that post in terms of short and long term prospects. What’s the most likely/realistic way to turn that org around?

Dan Szymborski: Reinsdorf no longer being the owner for some reason

Dan Szymborski: Rick Hahn had the misfortune, i strongly believe, about being fourth in the decision making pecking order

Jay: Will ZIPS include a projection for Jackson Chourio when the Brewers list comes out?  Can’t wait to see what the projection looks like for that kid…

Dan Szymborski: He will be

KingSolomon416: The Blue Jays have 3 major league ready catchers (Jansen, Moreno, Kirk) and absolutely need to trade at least one of them. Does this give the other teams leverage since they know Toronto likely doesn’t want to enter the season with all 3 on the roster, and how the Jays might dump one of them for cheap (likely Jansen)? Does it give the other clubs incentive to hold out even if they really could use a catcher?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they really have leverage over the Blue Jays in this sense

Dan Szymborski: I have a one-year-old Mazda 3 Turbo. If I won another Mazda 3 Turbo on a game show, I’d really want to sell one of them, but that doesn’t mean I need to take pennies on the dollar, you can move a new or newish car in excellent working order

Dan Szymborski: No matter how much you assume the Blue Jays “need” to trade a catcher, the fact that teams want those players means they won’t suffer from that

Josh E: At what point is it realistic to think Major League Baseball expands? I know Manfred has said he won’t until the A’s and Rays get new stadiums, but even the NHL got to 32 teams before the MLB. Would love to hear your thoughts

Dan Szymborski: I think Manfred’s actually being truthful here

Dan Szymborski: There’s no sense burning a couple extortion locations quite yet

Just Fowl: Crane seems to be doing a good job as gm, no matter what one thinks of him.

Tstats: What is the fallout if MLB loses antitrust

Dan Szymborski: MLB largely has in a lot of ways

Skip: Do many analytically minded front offices include former, non-analytically minded players in their decision-making processes? Bagwell courting Abreu seemed odd at first, but I guess I can see the value of sending a former franchise star to help make the sales pitch to a free agent.

Dan Szymborski: It varies on the team and the specific decision

Dan Szymborski: But no team shuts out players and makes it a dorky statfest 100%

Guest: Dan – how does Zips account for confidence intervals among different players?  Do you notice that certain players have tighter bands of simulation outcomes than others?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses the large cohort to infer riskiness

Dan Szymborski: Young catchers have wider bands because young catchers have historically had more uncertainty when you look at their projections compared to baselines

Mr. Ray, of Hair Weave Fame: Are the Orioles infielders good enough that the team could pursue a groundball pitcher like Quintana?

Dan Szymborski: I think if the price isn’t crazy, it’s a possibility

Dan Szymborski: Oh, someone asks the most similar player to Mo Vaughn earlier

Dan Szymborski: While I can’t DIRECTLY do it

Dan Szymborski: looking at the ZiPS initial run

Dan Szymborski: Mo Vaughn is Luke Voit’s #3 comp

Guest: What kind of extension would ZiPS give Rafael Devers? He apparently wants a deal north of $300 million, but his WAR totals leave a little something to be desired. He does have the distinction of being arguably the second best player available in FA next offseason behind Ohtani.

Dan Szymborski: At the risk of spoiling a theoretical future article, 8/258

Dan Szymborski: I’m not giving away a BUNCH of these though! lol

JP B.: Is there an undervalued player in the MLB that you really like?

Dan Szymborski: God help me, I still think the Joely Rodriguez breakout will be a thing

Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to get away with Dylan Cease on a breakout list for a third year, sadly

Tstats: Do you believe in animal consciousness wise dan?

Dan Szymborski: To be honest, I’m not sure we’re actually all that self-aware

Dan Szymborski: I tend to be of the belief that our sense of self is just something created by the body as part of its self-preservation programming

DanIsOurMan: How is Cistulli doing these days?

Dan Szymborski: Evil things I’m sure

Service Time Impingement Syndrome: How does ZIPS factor in health? Does it expect someone with repeated, nagging injuries like Robert to continue getting repeated, nagging injuries?

Dan Szymborski: Nagging issues is tricky

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can very broadly look at *specific* injuries and DL time

Dan Szymborski: X played through a sore hammy is way way harder

Guest: What percentile of outcomes does the Phillies postseason run fall into?

Dan Szymborski: Well, ZiPS gave them a 2% chance of winning the WS entering the season

Dan Szymborski: and while I don’t publish it, a 3.8% chance of *making* the WS

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t break it down into game totals.

Dan Szymborski: but losing in 6 is probably the “average” loss?

Dan Szymborski: So call it 97th percentile?

JamJim: Which player in the minors is Zips most bullish on this year?

Dan Szymborski: Bullish is the eyes of this observer.

Dan Szymborski: But I made this meme for a reason

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And hey, since I’m in the image folder anyway, here’s David Ortiz as Romeo again

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And Dallas Keuchel sleeping in a pile of malformed Pokemon stuffed animals

Dan Szymborski:

Don: Does anyone even kind of understand how the Giants were so good in ‘21?

Josh R: Noticed this in a transactions list :                                      Mariners Named Dave Cameron senior director, player procurement,                                                 Is this the former FanGraphs Dave Cameron?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, was making sure he made it official or I couldn’t say anything)

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And no, nobody does Don

Dan Szymborski: But it doesn’t prevent people still getting SUPER ANGRY with me about it

Josh E: Second (and final question for me – thanks for doing this) – the Tigers are an interesting franchise to me. They’ve been stuck in a weird rebuilding/mediocre stage for years. The Baez contract does not look like that will be a good marriage. Can Scott Harris really build them back to contention? Seems like it may take way longer than it should to get them back to contenders.

Dan Szymborski: I think he can, there are some good elements in the organization

Dan Szymborski: and he’s in a division where, let’s be honest, there are no teams that are both big spenders and smart

Pedro: Does ZIPS account for possible playoff fatigue for starters?  I’m thinking of Framber V

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: (Though it does in postseason projections)

Bomber: Odds LA Dodgers sign one of the big 4 SS’s?

Dan Szymborski: 2-7

romorr: Would you do a Hall/Cowser trade for Brandon Woodruff?

Dan Szymborski: I might

Dan Szymborski: I’d want an extension window

Dan Szymborski: I think the Orioles should be adding talent, but I think in FA right now

Dan Szymborski: I think you don’t start cashing in everyone until you have MORE confirmation that you’re good

Skip: Does Zips account for potential injury based on the player’s size? I’m just curious if big-bodied types who historically break down early/often are weighted differently compared to a more athletic players.

Dan Szymborski: No, I just haven’t found value in it

Dan Szymborski: I actually found that fat pitchers were *more* durable when I looked at this some years ago!

Dan Szymborski: I was asked in a PM if I could make an image of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fighting an angry pop tart

Dan Szymborski: Which I have no down

Dan Szymborski: now done

Dan Szymborski:

Tstats: What is your image generator that you use, and does it kill my computers processing power?

Dan Szymborski: Midjourney!

Dan Szymborski: And you use their power

Just Fowl: LV wants a MLB team but do they want the A’s? These guys are terrible owners and even worse at marketing.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head off to the dentist!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all