Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/1/22

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And started, the chat has!@

12:01
DanIsOurMan: Love love love Zips season! Can you dig into Cruz’s projection a bit more? Surprised his 80th percentile didn’t show more power?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Remember, it’s the 80th percentile projection overall, not the 80th percentile projection of a specific aspect

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If he hit the 80th percentile for all his measurables then it would be a higher than 80th percentile projection!

12:02
DanIsOurMan: What’s the schedule for the roll out?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Four or five a week

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oh good

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Damn text

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Four or five a week.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I keep the order a secret, simply because otherwise I get a ton of people asking and trying to convince me to move their favorite team up

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So completely random

12:03
ZiPs: Have you considered putting out projections for all the free agents in one place. I’m sure there are a bunch of team dependencies.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, they all get updates when tehy sign!

12:03
DanIsOurMan: Zips loved Bryan Ramos going into last season, and he was fine but not incredible last year, I assume that dinged his projection a bit?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He basically held serve this year

12:04
Dirk Diggler: Since the Giants seem to be hesitant to sign any pitcher to a long term deal should they try trading for someone in hopes they can be the next Gausman/Rodon? Someone like Lucas Giolito?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Giolito would be a fun eventual add

12:04
9761014: Do you think one of the SS will get a 10 year contract? I assume ZiPS would think no. Was Seager’s 10 year deal an outlier or what we should expect?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect no

12:04
DanIsOurMan: The Zips top 100 is maybe my favorite article on FG every year, what date should I heart on my calendar this year? And, could you extend it to a top 200 for us mere mortals? Or at least go a bit deeper on the SPs? Again, love the work you do!

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I hesitate farther because once you get really deep into the prospects, there are going to be granularity issues on the lower-level prospects

12:05
Scotty: Hello Dan, will 2023 ZIPs projections be available to download once they are complete? I’m looking to use them for some fantasy projections. Thanks!

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They always are!

12:05
Scarp: Who makes the NLCS first, Reds or Pirates?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Possibly Pirates

12:05
Scarp: Dan, why doesn’t my toaster work?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Is it plugged in?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Does the coil turn orange?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Note that I cannot fix your toaster

12:05
Guest: Can ZIPS tell me what current player is most like Mo Vaughn?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hmm, I don’t think I can do it reversified

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Where is everyone? This is like a quarter of the audience of the chat! Is the link not working?

12:07
Guest: Hayden Wesneski zip better or worse than you thought?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Better

12:08
Liz: Let’s say the Red Sox see the ZIPS depth chart projection and decide to free up some room on their 40-man roster by bringing Hoscabec to life … but could, for some arbitrary reason, only choose the best aspects from each player instead of adding them together … would they have an everyday quality first baseman or would they still need to bring in another one?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think if they just chose all the Casas parts they’d have a decent starting 1B

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: with upside

12:08
Jake Alu: Who am I?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I made one of my favorite gifs from that

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:11
Ryan O’Hearn: I must have incriminating photos of someone, right?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think more than photo, there have to be documents too

12:13
very legal, very cool: any rule 5 guys you have your eyes on? The rule 5 is the coolest draft in sports. Rule 5 > Rule 4!

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t done a final check

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: did the Pirates add Gorski?

12:14
Guest: Does ZiPS have any confidence in an Ian Anderson rebound next season?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would call it cautiously optimistic as a projection

12:15
Hakuna M: Have you read the novel Babel, and what is your favorite genre?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not. Assuming we’re not talking “literature” or non-fiction, I tend to like historical fiction and low fantasy

12:17
jillybohnson: Any current Free Agents that ZiPS seems to like way more or way less than the consensus?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honestly, ZiPS doesn’t seem too far off the crowdsource of the top free agents

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MAYBE it’s more negative on Thors?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thor

12:17
Jonathan: Wild guess:  how many years ahead of public-facing baseball research (I know, a gigantic umbrella with lots of subjects) is the weakest MLB analytics group, and how many years ahead is the strongest?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d call it a point on a spectrum like in a race

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are some things that the public focuses on that teams really don’t because that stuff is wildly solved

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like as far as I know, teams dont’ put a ton of effort in mean projections

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Where teams are really ahead is injury/biomechanics stuff

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and a lot of that is they have specific internal data

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One advantage of public research is that you can go searching for stuff teams aren’t necessarily looking at because they’re “locally” focused on their organization

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When I do something really out there like predicting how Rowdy Tellez would do at short, that’s the stuff I get calls about

12:20
Derek: How often are you tinkering with ZiPS? And is “production” ZiPS constantly changing or do you wait to do updates in bigger chunks?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It varies depending on what I have an idea on and what I want to work on

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there’s always a version of ZiPS that’s a few years away from me trusting it

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Except for the JAWS stuff, which is really just configuring results a certain way

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: everything in thsi year’s ZiPS was basically researched in 2019 or so

12:21
DanIsOurMan: I know you don’t have Meg’s godlike powers over all that is FanGraphs (at this point it seems like Appelman is a hidden factotum), but could you pass along a request for the Rosterresource Power Rankings to be included in the MILB tables? Or at least viewable on one screen within RR? Thanks!

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can pass along that request

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and David, while away at the moment, is *very* active on the site, even if you don’t see him day-to-day!

12:24
Enderman: Is Endy the #1 catching prospect?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can say quite confidently yes

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: in ZiPS that is

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh wait

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: #2

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: so not so confidently

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I accidentally had “rookie” filter instead “no MLB time” filter

12:26
Josh R: Some people won’t like this question but have you looked at the Braves contract extensions and the vast difference in value to the Caucasian players vs the African-American/Latin players?  It is disturbing to me but I’m also not sure what to make of it.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s an area that’s a bit beyond my expertise

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But just spitballing, I expect it’s more a class thing than a racial thing. I suspect if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signs a long-term deal, it’s going to be far closer to what he would get as a free agent than, say, Ozzie Albies

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I’m really not sure how you would work around this

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Other than, say, more support for minor leaguer salaries and pensions

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But the basic difference between the fallback options of an upper middle-class kid drafted out of a California college than a kid signed to an amateur deal out of the Dominican Republic are going to realistically be very, very different no matter what you do

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And again, I’m not sure what you do about that

12:30
Regina George: Why is ZiPS still trying to make Kevin Padlo happen?

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry!

12:30
J-ROD Squad: Curtis Mead of Tampa Bay-Baseball America has him now as 70 hit, 60 power prospect. What sayeth zips 2023 and beyond projection?

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say he will rank well

12:31
Jung Bong Jovi: How much wood would Kerry Wood carry if Kerry Wood would carry wood?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 100 pounds comfortably?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a 45-year-old man, probably of at least above-average physical fitness

12:32
Josh R: Beyond the point where they would have reached free agency Matt Olson got 5 years and $110 mil. Austin Riley the same 5/110. But Acuna only 24/68, Albies 4/28 (unbelievable still), Harris 5/67.

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure you can use Olson here because his FA was much closer

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but Riley definitely did better

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but so did Julio Rodriguez

12:32
Moose_Bolton: If you could go back 15 years and tell young Dan one thing about baseball, what do you think would shock him the most?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably that I’m making a good living doing this

12:33
Just Fowl: Who will be responsible for operation of the pitch clock? I see the potential for shenanigans.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have no idea really!

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hopefully a sleepy 95 year old man because of the shenanigans

12:33
Dan Dan Noodles: How do you spell your last name?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: only 95% accurately

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I frequently type Syzmborski if I’m typing too fast

12:33
Dan Dan Noodles: The BBQ chicken in Portugal is really good. But make sure you ask for the piri piri sauce. They only give it on request.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I love piri piri!

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Did you ever see the Nando’s Piri Piri dictators commercial? I laughed my ass off when I saw it

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:35
Dan Dan Noodles: If you could be any single brick in the old Fox Hills Mall, which one would it be?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One on top? Easier to escape?

12:36
Dan: Orioles are going to trade Santander + to Miami for Pablo Lopez, sign Bassitt (4 years 80 mill) and sign Brandon Belt and AJ Pollock.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are worse ideas. Well, Pollock is one

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t see any need to go after Belt and I just don’t want Pollock

12:37
Scarp: Why did Pollock opt out? Did he hate that clubhouse so much?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. ZiPS certainly did not think it was a good idea

12:38
Guest: Who steals more MLB bags this year, Esteury Ruiz or Jorge Mateo?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Mateo as his playing time is more clear cut

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Brewers work Ruiz in gradually

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though ZiPS likes him more than either Taylor or Mitchell

12:40
Skip: All Your ZIP Are Belong To Us

12:40
Guest: Its a Dan good day when we can read your chats! In your opinion is correa or turner a better fit for LA (with Xander being option 2 to 1A/B)?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Correa

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think there are reasons to like both as players

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But Correa, you *know* he’s very likely to have full buy-in with the Dodgers and their nerdiness

12:41
Jay: How big a difference does Trea Turner make in Phillies team projection if he lands there?  Seems like he’s exactly what they need to round out that lineup.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A huge amount! The Phillies getting Turner would be amazingly awesome

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re right in that range where marginal wins are the most valuable

12:42
Dan Dan Noodles: Have you ever had Yank Sing chili sauce? Literally the best taste in the world. [2nd is freshly squeezed pink grapefruit juice.]

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not

12:42
Guest: American top end players are often coming in with their millions in signing bonuses from the draft so they have leverage in that they can afford to wait on their big payday. International players often don’t get that level of money so they are more likely to be motivated to sacrifice future earnings for present earnings. Just a theory

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s an issue teoo

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In the end, leverage is going to rule transactions

12:42
Guest: What about George Washington American Cincinnatus?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yup, though others have made that comparison before I believe

12:43
Ambivalent White Sox fan: You seemed, fairly, pessimistic on the ChiSox org in that post in terms of short and long term prospects. What’s the most likely/realistic way to turn that org around?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Reinsdorf no longer being the owner for some reason

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rick Hahn had the misfortune, i strongly believe, about being fourth in the decision making pecking order

12:44
Jay: Will ZIPS include a projection for Jackson Chourio when the Brewers list comes out?  Can’t wait to see what the projection looks like for that kid…

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He will be

12:44
KingSolomon416: The Blue Jays have 3 major league ready catchers (Jansen, Moreno, Kirk) and absolutely need to trade at least one of them. Does this give the other teams leverage since they know Toronto likely doesn’t want to enter the season with all 3 on the roster, and how the Jays might dump one of them for cheap (likely Jansen)? Does it give the other clubs incentive to hold out even if they really could use a catcher?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they really have leverage over the Blue Jays in this sense

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have a one-year-old Mazda 3 Turbo. If I won another Mazda 3 Turbo on a game show, I’d really want to sell one of them, but that doesn’t mean I need to take pennies on the dollar, you can move a new or newish car in excellent working order

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No matter how much you assume the Blue Jays “need” to trade a catcher, the fact that teams want those players means they won’t suffer from that

12:47
Josh E: At what point is it realistic to think Major League Baseball expands? I know Manfred has said he won’t until the A’s and Rays get new stadiums, but even the NHL got to 32 teams before the MLB. Would love to hear your thoughts

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Manfred’s actually being truthful here

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s no sense burning a couple extortion locations quite yet

12:49
Just Fowl: Crane seems to be doing a good job as gm, no matter what one thinks of him.

12:49
Tstats: What is the fallout if MLB loses antitrust

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MLB largely has in a lot of ways

12:49
Skip: Do many analytically minded front offices include former, non-analytically minded players in their decision-making processes? Bagwell courting Abreu seemed odd at first, but I guess I can see the value of sending a former franchise star to help make the sales pitch to a free agent.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It varies on the team and the specific decision

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But no team shuts out players and makes it a dorky statfest 100%

12:50
Guest: Dan – how does Zips account for confidence intervals among different players?  Do you notice that certain players have tighter bands of simulation outcomes than others?

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses the large cohort to infer riskiness

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Young catchers have wider bands because young catchers have historically had more uncertainty when you look at their projections compared to baselines

12:51
Mr. Ray, of Hair Weave Fame: Are the Orioles infielders good enough that the team could pursue a groundball pitcher like Quintana?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think if the price isn’t crazy, it’s a possibility

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, someone asks the most similar player to Mo Vaughn earlier

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: While I can’t DIRECTLY do it

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: looking at the ZiPS initial run

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mo Vaughn is Luke Voit’s #3 comp

12:55
Guest: What kind of extension would ZiPS give Rafael Devers? He apparently wants a deal north of $300 million, but his WAR totals leave a little something to be desired. He does have the distinction of being arguably the second best player available in FA next offseason behind Ohtani.

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At the risk of spoiling a theoretical future article, 8/258

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not giving away a BUNCH of these though! lol

12:58
JP B.: Is there an undervalued player in the MLB that you really like?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: God help me, I still think the Joely Rodriguez breakout will be a thing

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to get away with Dylan Cease on a breakout list for a third year, sadly

12:58
Tstats: Do you believe in animal consciousness wise dan?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: To be honest, I’m not sure we’re actually all that self-aware

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I tend to be of the belief that our sense of self is just something created by the body as part of its self-preservation programming

12:59
DanIsOurMan: How is Cistulli doing these days?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Evil things I’m sure

12:59
Service Time Impingement Syndrome: How does ZIPS factor in health? Does it expect someone with repeated, nagging injuries like Robert to continue getting repeated, nagging injuries?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nagging issues is tricky

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can very broadly look at *specific* injuries and DL time

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: X played through a sore hammy is way way harder

1:00
Guest: What percentile of outcomes does the Phillies postseason run fall into?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, ZiPS gave them a 2% chance of winning the WS entering the season

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and while I don’t publish it, a 3.8% chance of *making* the WS

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I didn’t break it down into game totals.

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but losing in 6 is probably the “average” loss?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So call it 97th percentile?

1:02
JamJim: Which player in the minors is Zips most bullish on this year?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bullish is the eyes of this observer.

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I made this meme for a reason

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And hey, since I’m in the image folder anyway, here’s David Ortiz as Romeo again

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And Dallas Keuchel sleeping in a pile of malformed Pokemon stuffed animals

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:05
Don: Does anyone even kind of understand how the Giants were so good in ‘21?

1:06
Josh R: Noticed this in a transactions list :                                      Mariners Named Dave Cameron senior director, player procurement,                                                 Is this the former FanGraphs Dave Cameron?

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, was making sure he made it official or I couldn’t say anything)

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

I should probably mention this now that it’s official. I get to do some really cool stuff for the @Mariners going forward. Quite a journey from @ussmariner (or asbs-m for us extra old people) to now. I couldn’t be more excited. Sincere thank you to all. marinerspr.medium.com/mariners-annou…
28 Nov 2022
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And no, nobody does Don

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But it doesn’t prevent people still getting SUPER ANGRY with me about it

1:07
Josh E: Second (and final question for me – thanks for doing this) – the Tigers are an interesting franchise to me. They’ve been stuck in a weird rebuilding/mediocre stage for years. The Baez contract does not look like that will be a good marriage. Can Scott Harris really build them back to contention? Seems like it may take way longer than it should to get them back to contenders.

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he can, there are some good elements in the organization

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and he’s in a division where, let’s be honest, there are no teams that are both big spenders and smart

1:07
Pedro: Does ZIPS account for possible playoff fatigue for starters?  I’m thinking of Framber V

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Though it does in postseason projections)

1:08
Bomber: Odds LA Dodgers sign one of the big 4 SS’s?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2-7

1:09
romorr: Would you do a Hall/Cowser trade for Brandon Woodruff?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d want an extension window

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the Orioles should be adding talent, but I think in FA right now

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you don’t start cashing in everyone until you have MORE confirmation that you’re good

1:10
Skip: Does Zips account for potential injury based on the player’s size? I’m just curious if big-bodied types who historically break down early/often are weighted differently compared to a more athletic players.

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I just haven’t found value in it

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually found that fat pitchers were *more* durable when I looked at this some years ago!

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was asked in a PM if I could make an image of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fighting an angry pop tart

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which I have no down

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: now done

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:13
Tstats: What is your image generator that you use, and does it kill my computers processing power?

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Midjourney!

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And you use their power

1:13
Just Fowl: LV wants a MLB team but do they want the A’s? These guys are terrible owners and even worse at marketing.

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head off to the dentist!

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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fjtorres
1 year ago

Re: Toronto trading a catcher, they have all the leverage because there is more than more than one team they can deal with. Also, they don’t *have* to trade them. They can spread ABs over C, DH, 3B, and LF, even 1B. Rest everybody regularly.

Given the quality of their catchers, they’ll get more value from a trade but there are more teams in need of an upgrade at C than available players. Toronto should find a good fit somewhere.