Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/12/24
12:02 |
: What time is it? CHAT TIME
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12:03 |
: If the Mariners do get Sasaki does trading Castillo for Triston Casas makes sense. Do you think they can make a 1 for 1 trade or will they need to add someone like Tyler Locklear to even this out.
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12:03 |
: If I were the Mariners, I’d be extremely underwhelmed by Casas as the return for Castillo
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12:04 |
: Is a Paredes + prospects package for Tucker really worth it for the Cubs considering their lack of proven 3B options and Tucker being unlikely to agree to an extension?
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12:04 |
: I think it could be. Though it depends on the prospects.
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12:04 |
: I would imagine there’d be more moves going along with this one
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12:04 |
: What sort of extension would ZiPS offer Crochet?
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12:04 |
: 7/211!
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12:05 |
: (I actually ran this yesterday)
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12:05 |
: So, this isn’t necessarily a judgment on the trade, but. . . what on earth do the Red Sox do at catcher now that Teel is gone? Are they really content with Connor Wong long term?
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12:05 |
: I suspect that in the short-term, they get one of the spare part catchers hanging around to go with Wong, and the next long-term catcher isn’t yet in the organization
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12:05 |
: max fried: huge overpay, or massive overpay?
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12:05 |
: I’ll say overpay, but not to the degree that ZiPS thinks
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12:05 |
: I really like that you’ve built JAWS into WAR. You and Jay are the respective regents of future and past, so if you work together you govern all of time (except present, which is Clemens’s beat).
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12:07 |
: So we’re…uh…Nozdormu?
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12:07 |
: This crop of prospects looks fairly weak up top. Does ZiPs agree?
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12:07 |
: Generally yes; there are fewer potential phenom guys, at leas tin ZiPS
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12:07 |
: Right handed first baseman need to stop standing with their left foot on the bag on throws from the catcher. Mobility on a throw should take precedent to your shoulder positioning.
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12:08 |
: Annie Dillard or Anne Lemont?
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12:09 |
: I read Pilgrim at Tinker Creek like 15 years ago but I don’t believe I’ know the name Lemont
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12:10 |
: Bellinger, Christian Walker, Bregman and Fried > Soto?
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12:10 |
: Maybe? But I’m not sure they’re cheaper that Soto
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12:10 |
: iin fact, I’m rpetty sure they’r enot
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12:10 |
: From an outsider perspective, thoughts on the Marlins approach last couple years? From a playoff run (maybe flukey) to a poor season to now the offseason of flipping major league assets.
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12:10 |
: Well, it’s a poor one I think
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12:10 |
: Omg Dan I haven’t made your chats for weeks I have so much to tell you
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12:11 |
: Thanksgiving was last week and I was behind on some work the week before, so you didn’t miss any for a few weeks!
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12:11 |
: Errr flip those
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12:11 |
: Really? Casas is awesome and cheap
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12:11 |
: I’m not calling a 1B/DH awesome unless they slug .500 or at least have a high OBP
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12:11 |
: Does Candelario for Stroman make sense for both teams?
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12:12 |
: Maybe, in an awkward way?
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12:12 |
: I was reviewing Soto’s projections for inspiration (imagine a 40 year old batting 15% better than the league, lol), but also curious how you compute OPS+ for 2040–how does norming work for the future?
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12:12 |
: I extend the assumption of league offense
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12:12 |
: Obviously, I have no basis for identifying future league performance
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12:12 |
: Are the yankees seriously floating him and is he enough to get Tucker on his own?
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12:12 |
: On his own? I’m not sure. I don’t think that’s the big need for the Astros
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12:13 |
: What would peak Trout at a similar age as Soto be looking like in contrast of the current deal?
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12:13 |
: Trout projected a little better at the same age
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12:13 |
: Did you see the Pitcher List article about Mike Elias this morning? Do Baltimore fans have a right to be worried that he is choking the moment?
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12:13 |
: I can’t attest to anything going on there!
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12:13 |
: Other than the general disappointment the O’s haven’t landed a Burnes replacement
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12:14 |
: How concerned should teams be by Luis Castillo’s dip in K/9 last year?
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12:14 |
: Mildly. There was a dip in velocity and contact stuff
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12:15 |
: Max scherzer has been teammates with 9 former cy young winners, which team do you think he could sign with that would add the most to this total?
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12:15 |
: Giants?
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12:16 |
: Robbie Ray won a Cy Young, Logan Webb is a candidate, and the Giants have been connected with Burnes, who has one too
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12:17 |
: The Red Sox keep insisting that they don’t intend to do it, but if they *did* intend to move Devers from 3B to 1B/DH, how would that change his long term projections? Is there a precedent for a change to a player’s offensive production if they change defensive positions?
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12:17 |
: There’s usually a minor change
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12:17 |
: but it’s most pronounced moving from C/SS/2B
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12:17 |
: not so much 3B to 1B
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12:17 |
: Chase Meidroth is probably one of the better White Sox bats given that the bar for “best White Sox bat” is buried in the basement somewhere. How many at bats are we reasonably looking at Chase Meidroth accruing and will he be a great White Sox or the greatest White Sox?
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12:18 |
: ZiPS actually projected Meidroth as the second-best White Sox player at the moment, behind Robert
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12:18 |
: Dan, posting again from a previous chat: When a minor league player is traded mid season, it lists his orgs out of order on their player page. For example, see Logan O’Hoppe. Lists Angels, Phillies, then Angels again.
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12:18 |
: I can mention it, but I don’t really handle that
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12:18 |
: Is there anyone that pops out in ZiPS from the Rule V draft?
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12:18 |
: Haven’t really dug in yet
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12:18 |
: Gage Workman is an interesting utility type
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12:18 |
: but again, haven’t gone in
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12:19 |
: what sort of extension would ZIPS calc for Tucker?
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12:19 |
: 7/191
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12:20 |
: (But no more as I’m probably doing an extension piece this winter)
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12:20 |
: Is Fried really that big of an upgrade over Cortes?
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12:20 |
: Rmeember, it’s not THAT direct
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12:20 |
: The Yankes have some IP risk and Fried stabilizes it
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12:20 |
: What would it look like if Pete Alonso had a blue ox named Babe?
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12:20 |
: Depends if the ox adds WAR
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12:20 |
: How accessible is the zips historical record? For example, could you query for the best projection for a prospect in 2010?
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12:21 |
: I usually keep as much data as is practical
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12:21 |
: According to ZIPS, which NEWLY acquired White Sox prospect is more likely to beat my ass in a bar fight? Kyle Teel or Chase Meidroth
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12:21 |
: I don’t do FiWAR (fight WAR)
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12:21 |
: With King and Cease set to be free agents next year, should SD go for the WS again this year or do what they did with Soto and try to retool on the fly through trades?
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12:21 |
: I’d go all in.
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12:21 |
: I like Casas a lot and am hoping he is not traded. But I agree that there are some serious limitations on his value in absolute terms. He will be a DH for the majority of his career in the end, I would guess.
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12:21 |
: What do you think of the Gimenez trade? Seems like a classic big market / small market team kind of trade
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12:22 |
: That seems abuot right
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12:22 |
: In your post this morning, you had the list of career WAR projections from 2015. Every one of them seemed to have ZiPS overshoot the actual final total. Why is that, and do you think that’s a flaw or just inherent to how modeling works that far into the future?
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12:23 |
: This group didn’t do particularly well injury/decline wise. A similar list for 2005 missed low by an average of 10.3 WAR
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12:23 |
: Does Zips like Profar okay after his late-career breakthrough last season, or is it too fluky?
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12:23 |
: Likes him as an OK guy, but not a star
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12:23 |
: Are the Braves dropping the ball or biding their time?
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12:23 |
: I think they’re essentially a conservative organization and dont’ feel a huge need to spend a lot on a pitcher
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12:23 |
: O’Hoppe comment: thanks, unsure where else to report it
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12:24 |
: Wait, did he say somethin ghorrible or something?
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12:25 |
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12:25 |
: “Gage Workman is an interesting utility type” nominative determinism wins again
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12:25 |
: Seems like if they did that deal both players would perform worse in the new parks and everyone would walk away angry
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12:25 |
: Zips would like an 8 year/$250M contract for Burnes better than the one Fried got?
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12:25 |
: Yes
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12:26 |
: Everyone is talking about Mariner’s pitchers but what about Harry Ford? They have Cal, wouldn’t it make sense to move Ford to a team that might need an up-and-coming catcher? A team like Boston that just moved Teel?
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12:26 |
: If someone really wants to bid aggressively on Ford, I think I’d make the trade if I’m the Mariners
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12:27 |
: He’s still young, but his 2024 was extremely underwhelming
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12:27 |
: The projection for the Phillies outfield WAR shows they desperately need improvement there. How do you see them going about this? They can’t possibly plan to run it back again…
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12:27 |
: I don’t believe the Phillies will do anything major there
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12:27 |
: 7 / $211m for a Crochet extension??? Good lord, I would’ve guessed something closer to buying out his last two arb years and then adding on a 7 year extension on top at like $175m total, $25m AAV. I have huge faith in him though so I will be glad if there’s an extension done regardless of cost.
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12:27 |
: Who combines for more HR + SB: Crews or Lawlar?
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12:27 |
: Crews
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12:28 |
: Adames and maybe Burnes for the Gigantes next – how do you grade/project deals like those when you give up that many draft picks due to QOs? Obviously current proven talent is desired, but giving up 3-4 draft picks hurts for an org trying to rebuild the farm…
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12:29 |
: I think if you get Adames/Burnes you’re not super unhappy about the QO
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12:29 |
: It’s the guys like Nick Martinez where you worry
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12:29 |
: Pedantic question, sir. I know that a player’s age __ season is based on his age on opening day. Does that change at all for teams that don’t play on opening day? If there was someone on the LADs who turned 30 on 03/24, would he be in his age 29 season (because the Dodgers open play on 03/18) or his age 30 season (because the rest of MLB starts 03/27)?
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12:29 |
: Seasonal age is based on July 1st
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12:30 |
: The SP market is HOT, and it feels like a big reason is that teams are placing a heavy premium on guys who they feel comfortable slotting into game 2 or 3 of a playoff rotation (e.g., Flaherty, Manaea, Severino, and to a lesser extent, Matt Boyd). My question is: Are teams placing too much emphasis on recent playoff experience? Each of these guys has demonstrated durability and consistency issues, and I’m skeptical their 3-4 year outlook is that much better than, say, Nick Pivetta, who’s almost sure to command less money
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12:30 |
: I’m nto sure teams are actually emphasizing recent playoff experience
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12:30 |
: The fangraphs walk off thing is pretty cool. I was in the top 1% off users.
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12:31 |
: I was amused that 1% of FG users apparently are in the projections aera more than me
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12:31 |
: Does your long term zips include body type? So many of these contemporary guys are huge, including Soto. We know there are no 35+ y/o guys who have 3.0 war, already. Will that be truer or falser in 10 years?
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12:31 |
: I haven’t found a lot of use for that
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12:31 |
: Mostly because the data sucks
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12:31 |
: As a minority owner of the Braves (one share at $23.86), please have faith in our organization’s plan
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12:31 |
: keeping Mookie at shortstop is the first major Dodgers misstep since….?
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12:31 |
: Is it?
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12:31 |
: how bad are the white sox going to be next year if they also lose Roberts and Moncada?
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12:31 |
: Amusingly so!
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12:31 |
: But they’ll probably win more games anyway
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12:32 |
: They had a lot NOT go their way
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12:32 |
: How many games does ZiPS project Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell to play this year?
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12:32 |
: That’s probably nto the most interesting part of a computer projection!
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12:35 |
: Sonny Gray has expressed that he wants to stay in St. Louis….but seeing the heat in the market, could he make sense to be moved? Wouldn’t he fit nicely in Baltimore?
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12:35 |
: I think he’d be fun in Baltimore, though I think of it more as a fallback option
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12:35 |
: Seems to me like the entire NL West should retool until the Dodgers get less good
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12:35 |
: What happens first? I am signed or another SP blockbuster trade.
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12:35 |
: Signed
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12:35 |
: What about Stroman for Hoskins? Better fit for both sides?
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12:35 |
: It’s a better mediocre challenge trade I Think!
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12:36 |
: The year in review thing didn’t specify how much time was spent on the team depth charts, right? Or was that labeled as something else?
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12:36 |
: I keep hearing that the Phillies want to shake things up and could trade Bohm, but I’m not hearing what it is that they want to improve. A center fielder?
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12:36 |
: I don’t expect the Phillies to be suepr active. I think you’ll see mostly the same team
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12:37 |
: can you add Zips 2026 and ZIPS 2027 to the auction calculator?
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12:37 |
: I could ask David
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12:37 |
: The rumor is the Astros want Suzuki, Paredes, and Matt Shaw for Tucker. Am I being a typical meathead homer in thinking that would be a bad move on the Cubs’ part? I get that Tucker at his best is an MVP candidate, but that seems like you’re on the losing side when doing the combined WAR math on that, not even taking into account that Tucker is going to be a FA that ownership probably won’t pay for in a year. Leaving Shaw off the deal seems more equitable? Maybe?
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12:37 |
: I think ti’s a lot for one year of Tucker
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12:37 |
: especially since Shaw’s a candidate to be the replacement at 3B when you trade for Tucker!
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12:39 |
: Are the 2024 White Sox (most losses) or the 1962 Mets (worst winning percentage) the biggest MLB losers of all time? Or is it a glorious tie?
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12:39 |
: I think the White Sox
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12:39 |
: becuase I don’t think they ACTUALLY REALIZED THEY WERE TERRIBLE entering the seaosn
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12:40 |
: The Mets were an expansion team, so it wasn’t a team they carefully assembled, and I doubt they had any expectations other than them being bad
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12:40 |
: Though I don’t actually KNOW how they considered themselves back in 1962
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12:40 |
: Overall thoughts on the White Sox’s return for Crochet?
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12:41 |
: It’s not crazy – Crochet comes with risk – but I’d be really disappionted to not come away with one of Mayer, Anthony, or Campbell
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12:41 |
: If ZiPs started to make AI rap music, what would it’s rap name be?
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12:41 |
: Hey, I use suno and udio for the AI music!
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12:42 |
: and it IS fun to do
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12:43 |
: (That’s a 1950s version of Baby Got Back)
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12:43 |
: Crochet at 7\191–two questions: 1. Does that include the first 2 years being arb years, and 2. How many innings per year is it projecting. Thanks!
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12:43 |
: Oops, sorry, i misread, I thought it was IF he was a FA
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12:43 |
: It’s 180 with arb years
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12:44 |
: Do you think WAR underestimates the value of starting pitchers? It seems that we are fairly often surprised by the size of SP contracts. Perhaps in giving relievers credit for their high leverage innings, WAR is devaluing the SP’s contribution to creating those situations?
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12:44 |
: I don’t think so – I continually update how it converts into moeny
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12:44 |
: Whaddya mean? My grandma just gave me a cool $765 mil
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12:44 |
: How do you imagine the impact of a sequencing of deals for the Cubs would play out? Like, if they move forward with the Tucker thing, are they positively screwed on a Bellinger deal (i.e. have to eat significantly more than they would in a vacuum)? Or does taking an option away from, say, the Yankees help them out?
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12:45 |
: I’m just not sure they actually get Tucker whiel they still emplly Bellinger
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12:45 |
: “Dan Szymborski12:21I don’t do FiWAR (fight WAR)” But what if ZiPs took into account for players who use Fight Milk?
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12:45 |
: Well, you need percentage of ability to fight like a crow
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12:45 |
: Pirates are supposedly willing to deal Jared Jones for hitting. Would Jones for Casas make more sense for everyone involved than the rumored Castillo for Casas deal?
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12:46 |
: I think this is more likely to be plausible
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12:47 |
: Now, this Mets/Grimace AI song might be the weirdest on eI made.
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12:49 |
: Are the Mets the favorite for the nl east? What does zip project as a fair Alonso contract?
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12:49 |
: ZiPS is frightened of Alonso
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12:49 |
: Still confused about the Crochet $ projection. He stands to make something like $4 mil in arb this year and maybe $10 mil in arb next year. How does his contract drop from 7/191 to 7/180 in that case?
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12:49 |
: 211 to 180
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12:49 |
: Do the ZiPS $ projections take into account how the market is valuing player performance? Or is it trying to be more objective (i.e., how much SHOULD a team pay)?
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12:49 |
: Trying to get what they ARE spending
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12:50 |
: 191 was Tucker
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12:50 |
: Thanks for the reply! Shaw being the obvious replacement for Paredes anyway was my main concern on a possible Tucker deal. Glad to have the validation that I’m not the only skeptical one.
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12:50 |
: Who projects better between Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell? Also, when do the Red Sox projections come out?
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12:50 |
: In ZiPS, Campbell
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12:50 |
: Brewers have some work to do to shore up the infield after the Adames loss. Do you see them filling the gap internally or trading for a longer term solution out of their outfield depth, say, Mitchell or Frelick?
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12:50 |
: I expect it’ll be internal
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12:50 |
: I think the Marlins are doomed with this ownership yet like what Peter Bendix is doing so far. Are you a fan of his moves?
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12:51 |
: I’m a fan of what he’s tried to do, but he’s basically like a contestant on Top Chef who drew the “cardboard box” knife rather than the “scallops” one in the elimination challenge
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12:51 |
: If Luis Castillo were to be traded, which teams do you think would be the best fits for him?
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12:51 |
: Orioles!
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12:52 |
: Can ZIPS put a dollar figure on the opt out in Severino’s contract? For the life of me, I can’t understand why they included that with the cap it puts on both his contract’s potential value to the A’s and his trade value. Haven’t really seen it discussed
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12:52 |
: I can, but I don’t have that automatically built in yet, so there’s more work and I can’t do it quickly
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12:52 |
: The experience of the ’61 Angels and Senators probably made it clear to the Mets and Houston that they wouldn’t be competitive even before the draft started. The Angels (70 wins) were probably the best realistic outcome the way the rules were structured. Hard to compare to a team that just slides into terribility.
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12:52 |
: Can you think of any examples of a player exceeding their 99th percentile projection?
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12:52 |
: Hopefully there are 18-20 a year!
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12:53 |
: Why doesn’t the MLBPA comment on player statements that the ball changes? It and players being threatened for sending game used balls to a scientist seem like issues they should push.
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12:53 |
: Not sure. What it comes down to is I don’t have a lot of knowledge about best PR practices for a union!
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12:53 |
: New playoff format (i.e., 3-game WC series in addition to 5 game LDS) has made elite starting pitching even more important, right? Feels like this is playing a part in higher than expected SP valuations
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12:54 |
: A little premature though!
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12:54 |
: could Patrick Sandoval end up getting more money as a free agent?
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12:55 |
: I think it’s certainly possible that he gets a 1/8 pillow deal with an option
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12:57 |
: Ok, what players who play full-time come to mind as furthest exceeding their 99th percentile projection?
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12:57 |
: I THINK offhand it was Doyle?
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12:57 |
: What caused the Roman Empire to fail? And how can we draw parallels to the Yankees?
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12:58 |
: Offhand, I’d say external migration pressure, overexpansion, army capture
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1:00 |
: Soto projected for 583 homers, yet a SLG under .500…seem odd?
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1:00 |
: He’s not a massive doubles guy and his career BA has probably peaked already
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1:01 |
: I just don’t get a projection of Tucker getting under $200 mil. How is that possible given his age and ability to pump out five wins a year?
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1:01 |
: For one, it starts at 29 and the expectation is that his 29-35 average WAR will be less than his 23-28 WAR
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1:01 |
: Hey Dan – do you ever do ZiPS for fictional characters? Asking because in the Ultraman movie on Netflix they state that Ken Sato hit .420 with 670ish stolen bases while playing for the Dodgers, and I would love to see the career projections/contract estimate.
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1:01 |
: They never give a full lin!
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1:01 |
: I’d love to do a Buck Bokai projection
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1:01 |
: can zips game out what a player’s projection would look like *if* they made one specific improvement? curious what, in a hypothetical universe, spencer jones’ batting line would be with a 30.0 K%
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1:01 |
: Yes
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1:02 |
: It’s actually something agents especially like to get
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1:02 |
: Currently thinking of the yankees front office recreating the moneyball scene where they talk about the aggregate after they lost out on Soto.
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1:02 |
: What is the ideal league structure, in your opinion? I like 32 teams (so 2 expansion teams relatively soon), 2 “leagues” of 16, 4 divisions of 4 teams, division winners plus 4 wildcards for the playoffs. My only hesitation is maybe too many playoff teams.
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1:02 |
: No byes is a HUGE no no for me
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1:02 |
: I’d like either a small playoffs of evenly matched teams
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1:03 |
: or, if a large playoffs, SIGNIFICANT handicaps for lesser seeds
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1:03 |
: With a 16 team playoffs
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1:03 |
: I’d want EVERY lower seeded team to have to SWEEP the better team
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1:04 |
: Tucker won’t be 29 when he reaches FA
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1:04 |
: He’s 28 for 2025
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1:04 |
: and 29 for 2026
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1:05 |
: 1/17/97
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1:05 |
: God, I’m getting old enough that I COULD have a 30-year-old kid
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1:05 |
: Oops. I’m a year off on his FA
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1:06 |
: I think you’re thinking FA in 2025 not the first year as 26
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1:06 |
: Sorry Dan. You’re always right ❤️
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1:06 |
: I wish
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1:06 |
: (or maybe I don’t as that woudl be boring)
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1:06 |
: are you pestered by agents for data ??
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1:07 |
: I’m not sure I’d call it PESTERING. I’ve been a data provider for teams/agents for more than 15 years. But the confidentiality wall ESPN needed and I’ve maintained is that I never offer any advisory opinion. I hit a button, send what the button says, and I take every request at an identical price
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1:07 |
: how does that ’50s version of ‘baby got back’ not have 8 million views?!
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1:07 |
: I think people are mostly annoyed by my AI nonsense
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1:07 |
: So. Can you tell me what’s likelier, that a person EVER has a 10 WAR season or that a person with two never has a third (which seems very likely but you get my point)?
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1:08 |
: The second one
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1:08 |
: What do you think about having a homerun derby instead of extra innings? It would be like when ancient Greeks would send their best warrior to square up against the other side’s best warrior.
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1:09 |
: I’d want to see how it works out in the minors first to see how terrible it is
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1:09 |
: There’s a weirdness about baseball in that people get SUPER MAD that baseball is played the way it is now, but also SUPER MAD if you suggest any rule changes that change the way baseball is played right now
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1:10 |
: Too many people just think “Hey, how about nobody just use analytics and we’ll magically be 1986” which is just about the most absurd argument ever
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1:10 |
: It’s pretty bad that the A’s ran a $62m payroll last year and now, with a potential MLBPA grievance looming, seemingly see no issues raising it to over $100m even as they call a AAA stadium home for the time being
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1:10 |
: It’s like bidding $20 at a school fundraiser for your kid’s shitty crayon drawing of Batman.
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1:10 |
: Hey Dan, do you contract with other internet writers about using your projections? I think I’ve seen some folks use ZiPS 3-year to fuel their own “trade calculator” things that they put behind paywalls and wondered whether they license the data from you.
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1:11 |
: I do not believe there’s much I can do about that
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1:12 |
: At the end of the day, the projections are facts generated by a projection system publicly, and that’s not copyrightable
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1:12 |
: and there’s no terms of service issue; anyone can see the projections without a contractual agreement
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1:12 |
: Fantasy sites may have the three-years
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1:12 |
: but only parties that pay get those updated in season! OR 10 years!
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1:13 |
: Does Soto project similar Rest of Career to Trout when he was 26? I don’t recall when the injuries started pulling down his long term expectations.
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1:13 |
: Less so
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1:13 |
: Thanks for giving this such a go, Dan. What sort of park factors do we expect for the A’s and Rays this year?
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1:13 |
: I have sutter home as an almost neutral pitchers’ park baed on being a good pitchers’ park in the crazy PCL
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1:14 |
: err sutter HEALTH
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1:14 |
: And I have no basis for Steinbrenner Field, so I have that as netural
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1:14 |
: Are the Rockies not as gormless as they used to be?
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1:14 |
: I said nice things in the readout!
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1:15 |
: Is Basallo the best bat in the minors per ZiPS? Is Williamson the best defender?
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1:15 |
: I believe Campbell rates out as best bat in minors at this moment
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1:15 |
: and ben Williamson as best defender
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1:16 |
: though did I say taht already? That’s a great guess!
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1:16 |
: Who does ZiPs like better out of Walker Jenkins and Roman Anthony? I’m very intrigued by both so just curious!
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1:16 |
: ZiPS prefers Anthony
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1:16 |
: Re playoff structure: I too want the better teams to advance more often. But do you think MLB likes the current crapshoot nature?
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1:17 |
: Yes. A crapshoot championship reduces the value of a win
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1:17 |
: Since you started doing these, do you know who has overperformed their projections from after no more than a cup of coffee (so, not a ROY season or anything) the most?
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1:17 |
: I dunno off hand
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1:17 |
: Maybe BrandoN Crawford a few years ago?
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1:17 |
: But that’s a wild guess
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1:17 |
: re: the 50s version of Baby Got Back, check out Richard Cheese’s “My Neck, My Back”
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1:17 |
: I am aware of Cheese!
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1:18 |
: I think you mentioned that he was great in the Ms ZiPS breakdown but didn’t know whether that was for ALL positions or just 3B
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1:18 |
: Actually, he’s behind Connor Burns slightly in D
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1:18 |
: Is it safe to say the Juan Soto was the one highly sought after 26 year old that New Yorkers are glad didn’t slip away from the city this past week?
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1:19 |
: heh
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1:19 |
: That’s a good note to end on!
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1:19 |
: Thanks for coming alL!
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Dan you know your stuff no doubt. But I’m certain Tucker gets minimum 400 in free agency. I would bet on 500. And turning 28 allows quite a few years of great performance. He is a better all round player than Soto. Speed and defence obviously count.
No. He may get 400 because these things always go up, but 26 vs 29 in the first year post-free agency is potentially 15+ WAR for a player of his (or Soto’s) caliber. No one is getting Ohtani/Soto money again for a long time, because it takes a perfect storm for it to get there.
Specifically, I don’t think anyone is getting Soto money for a long time. Ohtani’s contract isn’t even in the same league because of the deferrals. If you took the NPV of Ohtani’s contract, you could add like Mookie Betts deal to it and still not top Soto’s deal. Soto’s deal is wildly different than anything else we’ve seen so far
Even if I granted your premises (which seem factually inaccurate, as you’d have to cherry pick to make an empirical claim for Tucker over Soto), Soto’s 3 year head start on FA is certainly valued by teams more highly than is Tucker’s good but not consistently-great defense (Tucker’s speed didn’t do him any favors on the base paths last season). I also don’t think it’s likely Tucker’s going to have a .400 OBP again. If you think he’s turned into Mookie Betts and will maintain it for the next decade, then maybe inflation gets him to $400m, but who’s giving him Aaron Judge money at 29/30?
Soto is (now) only the second, full time position player to exceed $400m. Bobby Witt didn’t even get $300m, and while some of that is due to buying out his arb years, I don’t believe any team values Tucker more highly than Witt. Gunnar Henderson seems most likely to be the next guy to go for $400m+, imo.