Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/18/25

Dan Szymborski: And we are here.

Dan Szymborski: Because we can’t be there.

Dan Szymborski: Can only be here.

Rick: The Phillies, Braves, and Mets have all made significant additions since their ZiPS projections were released. How do you view their division at this point in time?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think hugely different; the Phillies I think are clearly better.

Dan Szymborski: But I haven’t released Mets yet!

Lowetide: Are there one or two pitchers among the talented young starter group (Burns, Mis, McLean, etc) that Zips likes a surprising amount, or is it different shades of equal?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s SURPRISING that it likes those guys

Dan Szymborski: I think the more interesting ones are the lesser fringier prospects ZiPS does like

Dan Szymborski: Like Mitch Bratt and Ethan Pecko

Gideon: How far underwater are the José Berríos and Anthony Santander contracts? Could either of them be moved (maybe with a low-end prospect attached) to free up roster and payroll space?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have the exact numbers, but Santander’s underwater and Berrios not SO Much

Phil: Which player is your pick to have a big bounce back year, and which one do you think is most likely to come back down to earth?

Dan Szymborski: You’re making me spoil TWO columns!

Dan Szymborski: OK, I usually do breakouts rather than boucnebacks so

Dan Szymborski: Sandy Alcantara woudl be one of my biggest bouncebacks. Not to his Cy level

Dan Szymborski: but he really improved as the team went on

Dan Szymborski: Yordan Alvarez obviously

ARKNDJL: Hey Dan! Big fan of your work. Wanted to get your thoughts on a few things…

ARKNDJL: Richard Matic absolutely raked in the DSL this season, posting a 167 wRC+

ARKNDJL: Was wondering your thoughts on him (Richard Matic) going forward? He seems extremely projectable, you have his raw power listed at a 65 (!!!) FV and I’m inclined to agree, but I was even MORE interested in him after seeing a very rare 65 tool grade, which you don’t tend to give out often

Dan Szymborski: A 212/309/327 translation for that level is really quite good

Dan Szymborski: So there’s definitely a lot of interest, though I never really go NUTS about guys unless they were college guys or in high-A ball

Dan Szymborski: is his name pronounced Matick? Because it just reminded me of something we used to do to annoy my friend Dan Ribaudo

Dan Szymborski: There was this series of CGI demonstration videos liek 30-35 years ago called Mind’s Eye. One of them had a song called “Quantum Mechanic” and there’s this lyric “I’ll show you the schematic.” But my friend Mike Cardiff and I used to ENRAGE Dan Ribaudo by claiming the lyric was “I’ll show you bust-a-matic.”

Dan Szymborski: And you couldn’t just look stuff like that up then

Guards!Guards!: Have you ever considered creating a composite player out of (the debatable) best tools in baseball history and running a career ZiPS on them?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t, might be fun

>this guy<: Dan is it going to take another work stoppage for us to be treated to more “what if”/Zips time machine articles?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve admittedly been hoarding the ideas for work stoppages

Lars: Does 1 WAR = 1 WAR no matter the position? Or could a 2 WAR elite RP be more valuable than a 3 WAR corner outfielder? Assuming relatively normal/even roster construction

Dan Szymborski: Generally it means the same, but there’s a real philosophical question on how to treat relievers

Oddball Herrera: Why do I have the feeling that the fire sale and the hiring of Pirates castaways like Derek Shelton and Josh Bell signals the symbolic beginning of the “We’re going to adopt the Pirates business model” era for the Twins.

Dan Szymborski: Because Josh Bell isn’t very good!

Dan Szymborski: I want to see small market teams spend $28 million on one good player, not four $7 million players no better than who they have

Tom Pohlad: After a bit of holiday fratricide it’s time to show what a power house the Twins can be! What’s my first order of business now that I have the keys? Now that Derek Shelton and Josh Bell are signed I’m kind of at a loss.

CFH: Hi Dan – you’ve mentioned in past chats not finding a correlation between bullpen quality and outplaying run differential, but this doesn’t really make sense as a hypothesis. It should be that top-end bullpen talent helps a team out win its run differential while holding overall bullpen WAR constant

Dan Szymborski: I did top-end bullpen talent specifically too!

Dan Szymborski: not just overall bullpen

Dan Szymborski: which..unfortunately…I can’t find super quick becasue I’m a disorganized mess

wheelhouse: what will it take for projection systems to see ben rice as a 3+ WAR player

Dan Szymborski: woudln’t take that much, he was already over two in 500 PA in ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: 600 PA already gets him 2.5

ARKNDJL: Was also curious about Konnor Griffin – obviously not a Sleeper prospect or anything, but I was amazed to see his 80th percentile ZiPS in his rookie year project him for an absolutely scorching 5.3 WAR. Was also intrigued by the 80th percentile projections for Oneil Cruz at 4.4 WAR, I’m a long time believer in Cruz and I’m interested in the idea that even projection models can look at his player profile and see the chance of him blooming late into a star. Do you think there’s any chance he gets traded? Love your work and appreciate you always

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he gets traded unless the Pirates absolutely implode

Dan Szymborski: 2027/2028? Maybe a different matter

Scotty: Danny Zips! What  does ZIPs think Judge and Raleigh’s 95% percentile HR totals are?

Dan Szymborski: 64 for Judge (that’s based on 140 games, which is why it sounds low)

Dan Szymborski: 62 for Raleigh – it still sees 2025 as not his baseline ability

Bob Bailey: Dan, I know he is a bit piece, but I didn’t see a projection for Jonah Bride in the Texas report where he signed a MiL contract. Also wasn’t on Minnesota or Miami where he played last yr. Does he get a projection for 2026?  Thanks

Dan Szymborski: .215/.320/.319, 1.5 WAR, 90 OPS+ for Bride

Dan Szymborski: Since I’m looking at late Texas additions anywya

Dan Szymborski: Nimmo 244/328/393, 2.8 WAR, 112 OPS+ in left

Dan Szymborski: 217/301/278 Tyler Wade, 0.0 WAR, 73 OPS+

CFH: (a good bullpen just makes your team better, idk what it’s have to do with exceeding run differential)

Dan Szymborski: People HOLD the hypothesis, so I’ll test it

JT: Why is ZiPS still not completely sold on Ben Rice? I know it doesn’t care about xWOBA, but he pretty much could not have hit the ball harder or at better angles last year, and he completely tore up the minor leagues

Dan Szymborski: the translations aren’t spicy – 2025 MLB was better than his previous translations

Dan Szymborski: remember, offensve has gone up a lot in the high minors

matt w: I thought the story was that you annoyed Dan Ribaudo by calling him Ribaudo-matic.

Dan Szymborski: We also annoyed him by saying domo arigato, Mr. Ribaudo

Dan Szymborski: now that I think of it, I probably shouldn’t be tweeting last names around

Guest: projection systems seem to overrate very passive hitters in the minors. Do you agree and if so, have you made any adjustments to Zips in regards to this?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is usually pretty grumpy about passive hitters!

Dan Szymborski: I talk about this quite a bit – people are sometimes very underwhelmed by projections of walk-heavy dudes

Dan Szymborski: This is some of the easier stuff to calibrate out of a projection system

Dan Szymborski: so that low hanging fruit is sadly gone

Bob: Has anyone published studies on the accuracy of defense and playing time predictions? They are a big component of WAR predictions, but the only studies I can recall seeing are about hitting rates stats.

Dan Szymborski: Nto that I’m aware of. I test my own work, but I have a conflict of interest, so I mostly provide data to others that do the work

Brew Crew: Do you agree with Roster Resource that Uribe is the closer and Megill is the 8th inning guy?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect that’s accurate, with Megill likely next in the pecking order

NYYFan: Is Jazz Chisholm being projected for a lot of time at positions other than 2B, either by ZiPS or Depth Charts? Not sure how his projection is -6 DEF when he was +5 FRV at 2B

Dan Szymborski: For one, ZiPS mixes FRV and BIS

Dan Szymborski: second, it also looks at implied ability from OTHER positions

Dan Szymborski: and he was bad enough at short and mediocre enough at third that ZiPS is more conservative

Frankie: If NYY has one big transaction monetary wise left this offseason, doesn’t Imai make more sense than Bellinger? Or does this hinge on Stantons outlook (ZiPs understandably down on him)?

Dan Szymborski: If you ask ZiPS at least, Imai is a real step down from both Yamamoto and Imanaga

Turang Test: Apple TV+ already has Severance and recently added Pluribus to its lineup.  What else do they have to do to become the new HBO?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I don’t have apple tv!

Calvin: If big-name megacontracts (Ohtani, Judge, Tatis, Lindor) almost always work out fine enough, what archetype of contract tends to fail the most?

Dan Szymborski: megacontracts for older players and the 2-3 mid guys

NFP: Re: zips love affair, cc: dean kremer

Look At This Sotograph: Did we not get an article on your HOF ballot this year?

Dan Szymborski: Since I talked about it so much on social media, we decided that I’d do an article on it after the break

Guest: Can Jhonkensy Noel still be a productive big-leaguer? I want it to work so badly, but ZiPS seems skeptical

Dan Szymborski: He can, but 2025 was brutal

KB: Hey Dan can we get Mike Yaz projections? With the timing of his signing he missed both the Braves and Royals lists.

Dan Szymborski: I think I mentioned it on twitter ro bluesky?

Dan Szymborski: 227/327/421, 2.3 WAR, 108 OPS+

KB: Why do ZiPS and Steamer not like Robert Suarez? Age? Lack of Ks? BABIP? All of the above? Seems like this is a tricky one because it feels like the Braves needed to sign him so taking on the risk is worth it for the upside.

Dan Szymborski: the statcast-like data has a lot that ZiPS does not like

Sharp: Does ZiPS project how a player will be used when spitting out his overall projection? Like player with an extreme platoon split might look decent in the overall projection because ZiPS projects that he’ll mostly be used with the platoon advantage

Dan Szymborski: No, since ZiPS doesn’t know how a player will be used, and I try to stay away from too many things where MY opinion is subbing in

Dan Szymborski: naturally, I have to when doing things like projecting standings

Dan Szymborski: I publish the platoon splits though, so one can always reroll a player to their liking

Chris: Aside from Skubal, who are other big name pitchers that could be traded this winter?

Dan Szymborski: I think PERALTA could be if the Brewers smell an opportunity

Guest: There’s been talk about the Guardians pushing Daniel Espino to the big league club before his body breaks again. There wasn’t any projection for him though. Was there not enough data to make a projection?

Dan Szymborski: I just forgot to – Espino has been injured so long that he missed the ZiPS one-year and multi-year projection cutoffs

Lars: Do you think Stearns regrets signing Soto to that contract?

Dan Szymborski: no

Guest: Fans are usually influenced a lot by this shape of a game or a season rather than just the outcome (e.g. a 10-9 loss where they were leading 9-0 and blew the lead will end up in huge blowback compared to a back and forth game that ended with the same score, or the exact same record will be viewed very differently if a large division lead was blown). From the perspective of actually evaluating a manager’s performance/team’s quality though (insofar as the influence a manager can even have), do you think the way things happened is meaningful at all?

Dan Szymborski: PROBABLY not, but it also depends

Chris: Why aren’t standard deviations or errors more commonly listed? It feels like there are often small

Dan Szymborski: In what context? I do publish the 80th/20th so people get an idea of what the range is

Big Fan: I remain baffled that there are 2242 people out there who use Fangraphs more than I do.  I spend an ton of time on Fangraphs, and can’t stop asking myself the question “don’t you 2242 people have anything better to do?”

ARKNDJL: Jonah Tong recorded a 3.96 xFIP at age 22 in the MLB, has a 70 grade fastball, has some of the most unreal iVB I’ve ever seen, and his minor league stats are ridiculously dominant with <3 FIP and 10+ K/9 rates across every level of the minor leagues. This is a guy who’s dominated at every level at a young age and has already shown he can be, at MINIMUM, a good MLB starter. My question is, why isn’t he being evaluated like it? I see an enormous ceiling in this profile, at least a 55 FV, and yet I see some people evaluating Sproat (who looks more like a RP to me) above him in the Mets system.

Dan Szymborski: Are people that down on Tong? Maybe we’re in different circles?

EccentricATLFan: Fun fact that I only remembered yesterday: Eric Hosmer’s contract was finally finished only this past season.  Seems like a distant memory when he signed, and that contract went sooooooo badly.

Dan Szymborski: God I had so many arguments about that contract. And basically ONE of the people that were super mad at me for ripping the deal have admitted to me that they were wrong

Dan Szymborski: It was so weird, back then there were actually people who thought the opt out favored the PADRES

Dan Szymborski: Which is absolutely crazy. It was always going to be a five year deal if he was good, an eight year deal if he sucked

Krusty: Obviously, leverage and context stats (ex wpa, re24) aren’t predictive but to what extent do you think they’re informative towards future performance? And might it make a difference between pitchers (esp relievers) and position players or is it all the same?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found to much use for them in this particular context. They’re good storytelling stats, which is perfectly fine

Billy Ocean: Will you run Sasaki as a SP, RP, or combo in ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski: Probably just going to roll with combo and adjust in March if there’s a clear usage

Guest: Dan- Feel free to tell me I’ve been hitting the dispensary too hard…but let me know if this (probably not gonna happen) trade idea has juice: Tigers send Riley Greene (and perhaps throw in some prospect filler such as Jace Jung/Trey Sweeney/Justyn-Henry Malloy level guys that the Tigers have a surplus in currently) to the Padres for Fernando Tatis, Jr. The Tigers would get a bona-fide superstar (when healthy); Padres would get a bunch of salary relief they may want in advance of selling the team – but also get a younger, cost-controlled borderline star who they can talk themselves into having additional ceiling to explore.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the worst idea ever, but the Padres would REALLY need a pitcher if they were to consider that deal, I think

Dan Szymborski: and I’m not sure they would

Yuniesky Betancourt: What team would the Grinch play for, based exclusively off his athletic talent?

Dan Szymborski: Phillies. Dude has power and a dadbod

Dan Szymborski: And, frankly, the Grinch had some real valid complaints about the Whos

Dan Szymborski: Have you seen those goddamn instruments those Whos were playing early Christmas morning? So loudly that you could HEAR them on the top of Mt. Crumpet?

Dan Szymborski: If he murdered the Whos and I was on the jury, I’m going jury nullification on that one

Dan Szymborski: how is anyone supposed to tolerate THIS crap

Dan Szymborski: I’d send this dude out on an ice floe to die.

Dan Szymborski: scaphism for this guy

the mouth: Did Jimmy Joyce not pitch enough for the M’s last year to get a Zips projection/historical comps?  I am unexpectedly broken up about the end of one of my favorite Easter-eggs

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t know anyone ever noticed that one

Dan Szymborski: There are always a few

Dan Szymborski: I’m a little hurt that nobody has noticed in years the yearly changing weird theoretical band genre in the disclaimer

Dan Szymborski: I’ll make sure to stick Joyce in the to do list

Seeforman: Turkey on the 25th? Or is it Fast-ivus for Dan?

Dan Szymborski: my family doesn’t really do a christmas dinner thing

Dan Szymborski: My grandparents used to have a massive secular CHristmas party on Christmas Eve when I was little and then we’d go to antoher massive Christmas party that the Seibels and Mrucks used to have together (they were next door neighbors and pooled their party)

Dan Szymborski: sadly, my de facto godfather (Armin Mruck) passed away at 100 a couple of months ago

Dan Szymborski: nowadays, my sister and her family usually go to denver for Christmas because they see her husband’s family a lot less than our family (since my mom and I are both about 30 minutes away)

Dan Szymborski: and we do a chanukkah/christmas/winter thing either before or after Christmas

Dan Szymborski: this year, we basically exchanged all our presents on the 14th. Our traditional dinner is shrimp bisque and bagels and lox

Dan Szymborski: and then I usually go with mom to a restaurant on christmas eve

Oaktown Blues: Why hasn’t ZiPS bought into Tyler Soderstrom? Lingering poor minor league translations (like you mentioned with Ben Rice)? Positional changes confounding defensive projection? Something else?

Dan Szymborski: YOu basically got it!

Dan Szymborski: combined translation + MLB for 21-24

Dan Szymborski: .235 .296 .375   .207 .250 .341   .187 .239 .331   .229 .309 .413

Guest: I don’t recall ZiPS factoring this in, but what players do you think are the most likely to end up on the IL as the result of an alternative medicine treatment (has to happen at some point honestly)

Dan Szymborski: has anyone ended up on the IL with a cupping injury?

EccentricATLFan: Easy explanation: the Whos are hard of hearing.  How else do you explain the conductor in the first picture at the bell end of the trumpet monstrosity?  (Either that, or societal auditory-based masochism.)

Dan Szymborski: That doesn’t give them a right to deafen others!

EccentricATLFan: Obviously it’s a bit spoiler-y since neither the Cards nor the Dodgers have had their ZiPS projections revealed, but how is Dustin May projecting given how much he’s apparently guaranteed with his deal?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has May at a 99 ERA+. No idea how many IP they get

Just Fowl: Mauricio and Vientos are surplus for the Mets. Which one would you rather acquire in a trade?

Dan Szymborski: depends on the team!

Freddie Cornbread: I had no clue until recently that there was a good third of the season last year where the White Sox ran a 111 wRC+ as a team. Sure, they were still below .500 during that stretch, but is their offensive core better than most might realize?

Dan Szymborski: maybe, but that’s damning with faint praise

Sodo Mojo: So are the Mariners better off not trading for Donavan and seeing what they have in Williamson, Young, and Emerson through the first half of the season then trading at the deadline if they need to?

Dan Szymborski: Frankly, that’s what I would do

Dan Szymborski: I like Donovan a lot, I just think there are teams that need him more

Yohan: What does ZIPs see out of Emerson careerwise? Average, above average, star, superstar, etc? Do yiu think he can be at least a 4 win guy?

Dan Szymborski: minor star

Guest: What would you say is the minimum acceptable wRC+ for a primary DH? Like, at what point would you be better off using the DH slot to rest your best players?

Dan Szymborski: Frankly, if you’re not at 110 and have no defensive value possibility or really exploitable platoon split, I lose interest (in this context)

Guest: What are some realistic moves for the Pirates to improve this dreadful offense? I’ve thought a trade with Minnesota for Larnach/Wallner has made sense for a while. Any other realistic ideas?

Dan Szymborski: I was kinda hoping they’d land Schwarber

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there are any realistic moves that really move the needle

Dan Szymborski: unless some crazy trade

Ethan: If Toronto re-signs Bichette, where do you see Tucker signing and what is the max deal you’d be comfortable giving Tucker?

Dan Szymborski: I think Giants. I’d be really uneasy going over $300 million, so I’d rpobably nto sign Tucker

Cris E: Have you ever tried to describe position markets using ZIPs?  That is, there are 19 MLB catchers worth more than one WAR   so the market price per WAR should by higher.

Dan Szymborski: Thought about it, haven’t really done much on it

Guest: Will Watson is getting buzz on some top 100 lists – is he in your top 100 yet?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t want to give him a rank, but he’s certainly INTERESTING. He’s still young enough to shed a walk

Jeremy: Are you ever completely mystified why ZiPS does or doesn’t like a player?

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes

Dan Szymborski: Suarez actually popped up earlier, he’s one I specifically had a covnersation with Jay about for ZiPS confusion

ARKNDJL: What’s the deal with Chase Silseth? Do you think he can develop into an elite closer? His K/9 numbers relative to age are pretty bonkers

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS really likes him as a reliever

Dan Szymborski: 3.44 ERA, 11 K/9

Guest: It seems like, least from my perch as a Mariners fan, that AA is extremely challenging for hitters and AAA is a bonanza. And I guess the converse for pitchers. I don’t know if that’s the ballparks, or aging curves or a mixture of factors. Has it always been this way, and has that made things more difficult for projections?

Dan Szymborski: It hasn’t always been this way. The thing is that offense has BLOWN UP the last five years in AAA

Guest: Is Zach Eflin washed, or was 2025 just weird and injury-y?

Dan Szymborski: I’m on the latter side right now

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be ian itneresting reclamation project

Oaktown Blues: If I told you before the 2025 season that someone in the AL not named Aaron Judge would hit 60 HRs, who would’ve been your best guess? Would Raleigh have been on your shortlist?

Dan Szymborski: PROBABLY Rooker

20longyears: What kind of prospects would a team need to trade to net Luis Roberts these days?

Dan Szymborski: Prospects too much for Robert

Dan Szymborski: Nothing I’m allowed to attribute, but I hear from teams *and* agents that the White Sox are hard trade partners as they’re not realistic

Dan Szymborski: similar to what I used to hear about the Rockies a decade ago

Dan Szymborski: On that note, since I have a piece to finish, it’s time fo rme to hit the dusty old trail at a fairly strict time

Dan Szymborski: Thansk for coming and see some of y’all in 2026