Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/19/16

11:59
Chaps: Jon Morosi recently tweeted that the Yankees are interested in Quintana. How crazy could the bidding war between the Yankees and the Astros get?

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I forgot the hello part.

11:59
Dan Szymborski: So, yeah, hello and stuff. You guys know how greetings work.

12:00
Dan Szymborski:

About to start my weeklyish chat over at FanGraphs! fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szym…
19 Dec 2016
12:01
Otis Redding: How do you feel about Max Kepler’s .AVG going forward, can he hit average along with his power?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Long-term, I think he’ll be a pretty good average guy. He didn’t have a lot of time in AAA so I expect improvement wiht more time

12:02
Josh: Does one of Ben Revere, Angel Pagan, Colby Rasmus, or Michael Saunders have to settle for a 4th OF spot?

12:02
Dan Szymborski: I think most of them do.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Saunders is good enough to start, but the issue is health.

12:02
Jim: What’s the realistic range of outcomes for Pablo Sandoval next year?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: From good Giants-type season to hosting a Food Network show called Sports Celebrity Eating Contest.

12:03
Matt: What’s the timeline for all ZiPS to be released?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: Generally after I’ve completed all of them. I tried to release ZiPS before I ran them one time and it totally didn’t work out.

12:04
Sirras: Suppose you have two players that end the year with the same triple-slash. One player is the model of consistency and hits the same line each month. The other player has two or three absolutely torrid months and the rest of the season is mediocre and hits below his season averages. Does one of these players provide more value to his team? Assume position, defense, baserunning, all else being equal

12:04
Dan Szymborski: Are you talking about past-tense or a theoretical player that is demonstrably onconsistent?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: I guess it’s not important – I don’t think it really makes much of a difference unless you can take advantage of it somehow.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Especially with hitters.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: You essentially want a bad starter to be inconsistent.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: But batter contributions aren’t that volatile game-to-game.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Or perhaps better described, there’s a hard limit for how much a batter can suck that isn’t htere for a pitcher.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Hey, Dan. That Skip Bayless sure is a dumbass, right? What a maroon.

Not you, though. You’re the best. I love ZiPS!
#Legend

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, everyone’s laughing at that today.

12:07
Craig: Can Jose Bautista perform similarly to David Ortiz as he approaches 40?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: While he theoretically could, it’s not a great bet – Ortiz’s bat aged particularly well.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Bautista would need to bounce back from 2016 before we even start thinking of him maintaining it.

12:08
Julio Pepper: I read your ESPN piece as basically saying that the Red Sox traded 26 time-independent-wins for a 4 win upgrade in 2017. Is this accurate? Why aren’t more people viewing the Chris Sale trade as the monstrosity that it was?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Well, technically, I was looking at *all* their moves.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: (It includes Shaw and the Moreland signing, which was unclear on the table)

12:10
Dan Szymborski: But wins now tend to be more valuable in part because of the knowledge that they’re useful.

12:11
Dan Szymborski: And if your wins gain you, say, $30 million in revenue, having that now as opposed to later is useful.

12:11
Marc: What are the Pirates doing? They need to add at least one starter, no?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: I have to admit the Liriano trade last summer really confused me.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: They could use a starter and I suspect they bring Nova back

12:12
Marc: Whats taking Nova so long to sign? Think he will ultimately be worth what he signs after his brief success in Pitt (like Happ) or a contract disaster?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anyone’s offering hi big contracts.

12:12
Sean P: Should White Sox fans be upset if Avi Garcia starts regularly next year? If you are Hahn, what would you be doing with their open positional spots?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I’d rather KBO/NPB lotto tickets over Garcia, but with the White Sox not competing, it’s not the worst thing ever.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: He helps them get a better draft pick!

12:13
Marc: See Rogue One yet? If yes, worth it to see now or ok to wait it out a bit?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: I have not yet.

12:13
CamdenWarehouse: Is ZIPs for KBO players volatile currently with all the new data points coming in?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Yes, I expect it to be more accurate as time goes on, but we’re still getting an exact feel for the level.

12:13
Josh: Love the team projections series. I know the player comps are for fun, but can you tell a little about how we should read them? Player A’s projected age-28 season is most like Player B’s actual age-28 season?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: If x player has y as their top comp from the massive list, it just means that, statistically speaking, x at roughly the same age as y, has the closest established baseline of play and characteristics over their recent previous years.

12:15
Dan Szymborski: It’s not a Future comp.

12:15
Marc: Caminero to Japan?!? Surely some MLB pen as a spot for him, no? The reds/padres/brewers/twins/angels/As couldnt even pony up something for him?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: He’s a little wild. NPB does pay pitchers well.

12:15
CamdenWarehouse: Who would be on your ballot if you had a HOF vote this year?

12:16
Dan Szymborski: As usual, I want way more than 10, so I’d have to game it a little.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anybody’s a shoo-in, who I would normally skip in this situation (I would not have voted for Maddux or Griffey, for pragmatic reasons)

12:16
Dan Szymborski: I’d start with the guys that could plausibly be around 75.

12:17
Dan Szymborski: Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Hoffman, Edgar, Mussina, Raines, Pudge

12:17
Dan Szymborski: (There are way more guys over 60% so far than usual)

12:18
Dan Szymborski: And then my last vote would be for one of the crowd that could plausibly fall below 5%. Sosa most likely or Sheffield if the former looks safe.

12:18
Dan Szymborski: And I’d wait until the last possible minute.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Hoffman is very borderline for me, possibly even slightly below the line, but the truth is that due to the logjam, clearing a borderliner that can get 75% gives me the opportunity to vote for more deserving candidates in the future.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: The 10 limit is dumb.

12:19
Guest: Gerrit Cole: have we seen the best from him? And how worried are you about his injury history going forward? Also, Vogelbach: future hero or just won’t cut it? Keep up the great work!

12:20
Dan Szymborski: I would’t say that yet, but you should be worreid about any pitcher at all times.

12:20
Dan Szymborski: As for Vogelbach, I’m not sure he’ll just hit enough.

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Even assuming a 360/420 line, that’s not great when you have little defensive value

12:21
Snakes: Does Taijuan Walker turn it around in Arizona? Or is he doomed to be a #3 pitcher for eternity

12:21
Dan Szymborski: It’s possible he’s doomed, but there’s still real upside.

12:21
silvpak: has the dozier scenario basically turned into a game of chicken? his peak value to the twins is really as a trade asset and his value will never be higher; however, the universe of potential landing spots with legit prospects to spin is, barring a total shocker, essentially LAD/SFG/NYY, in that order – the giants don’t really have the topline quality to deal, the yankees don’t *really* have a need (castro is fine and spinning him/headley would be a zero sum game, ultimately) – thus, the dodgers, who i’d think believe they should be able to land dozier absent *any* of deleon, verdugo, or bellinger, and have kike hernandez/calhoun/barnes as a reasonable backup plan, are drawing a line. make sense?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Most big trades are, to an extent, a game of chicken!

12:22
Dan Szymborski: But smart teams do draw lines that they “probably” won’t go over. No player has unlimited value. There’s a smart price and a terrible price for every player in baseball.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: And the Dodgers *do* want to bring payroll down somewhat in the medium-term. Losing a De Leon makes that trickier.

12:23
hscer: if you were an elector would you vote for wondering how you got there?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably vote for a Pop Tart. Unfrosted Brown Sugar Cinnamon 2020!

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably never be in that position because electors are essentially chosen for their party loyalty.

12:23
bgogden: Since he wasn’t included in the ZIPS article this morning, can you say whether ZIPS seeing Fernando Abad being closer to his early season or late season quality last year?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t?

12:25
Jared: What current prospect do you think will sell the most jerseys in his MLB career?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Moncada

12:25
JS: Does the Jimmy Rollins signing make the Giants instant World Series favorites?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Obviously!

12:25
John: with the way some teams fail to value draft picks when signing comp FAs (cough, cough the Rockies), why haven’t we seen a team blow past spending limits and sign multiple first round talents that slide to later rounds due to ‘signability’ issues. would seem to be a similar strategy to the blow through IFA pools (eliminated by the new CBA).

12:26
Dan Szymborski: The pools *are* fairly inflexible.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: A lot of these guys slip because of their prices.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Unless I’m not understanding the question

12:26
Matt: Dan, can you explain with a little greater detail exactly how greetings work?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: It’s something a Priest does in Hearthstone on turn 2.

12:26
Caldwell: A woman in the MLB is never going to happen, right?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I think it will happen eventually.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: A knuckleballer seems most likely.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I’d love to see it happen, but there are very real physical differences that make it an uphill climb.

12:28
Joshua: Who won the Davis/Soler trade?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: It was reasonable for both sides.

12:28
JT: What happens between the “agree to sign” and “actually signs” period. Can agents shop the agreed upon offer, can teams get cold feet and back out? Is this a gentlemens agreement or is there any real language that governs this period?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: There’s usually a gentlemen’s agreement at that point.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: Teams and agents have long-term relationships, so you usually only see the applecart tilt in a fe situations

12:29
Based God: Dan, would you eat stuffing mixed with gravy and blended to a smooth sticky pulp?

12:29
Dan Szymborski: No.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: I don’t even like my food touching on Thanksgiving.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: If I won’t eat stuffing with gravy on top of it, I’m certainly not going to eat it in a blended shake.

12:29
Marc: With Pablo slimmed down, whos the fattest MLB batter? Fat Matt Adams?

12:29
Dan Szymborski: HODOR

12:30
Richard : Would the braves be better served to use Mallex Smith as 4th outfielder or let him get regular playing time at AAA?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: They’d best be served dumping one of their mediocre outfielders and seeing what they have in Mallex.

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Short of that, I’d rather have him on the AAA injury shuttle and playing fulltime

12:32
BootyO’s: What do you think of Joe Biagini? Can he actually be a good reliever?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: He was good already.

12:32
Dan Szymborski: I don’t see him getting to an elite level though.

12:32
Bret: How will the Mets end up sorting out their OF situation? Is it enough to just dump Bruce eventually? Or do they need a real CF?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I think they expected a better market for Bruce, though god knows why.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re *really* going to play Granderson in center. In 2017.

12:33
Bork: Rasmus won’t be a 4th OF. He’s perfect for a cheap 1 yr bounceback contract, no?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: After that year, I can’t see him getting a full-time job just handed to him

12:33
Bob: Any advice on how to strengthen pitch identification skills? Got an MLB job that requires great precision, so I want to be as sharp as possible

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Experience?

12:34
Bort: why does this chat never really work on Chrome?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Beats me.

12:34
Maybe it’s Mealworms: Dan, can you dunk?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: If I have a ladder.

12:34
Gopherballs: What is the darkest ZiPS timeline?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: There’s a non-zero chance that a Super Nintendo Schwarber dinger causes a vacuum metastability event.

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Dammit guys, even doing a third of the questions, I’m only up to 12:04.

12:36
Argon: Do you like basketball?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:36
Greenigo: Is Dalton Pompey done for?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Too early

12:36
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Do you agree with most of the ZIPS projections for the 2017 Red Sox?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Sadly, yes.

12:36
Dan Szymborski: (I’m an O’s fan)

12:36
Coppy: Justin O’Conner seems to make perfect sense for the Braves, right? Wouldn’t he already be better than Recker or Gosewisch?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Would be a good move.

12:37
Bill G: y Holidays, Dan! DMB league draft beginning next week, how would you pick between Mazara and Benintendi? Thanks!

12:37
Dan Szymborski: I have Benintentions.

12:37
Richard : What kind of triple slash would Matt Kemp have to put up to be useful starter given his defense?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Something like a 130-135 OPS+ to be a league-average starter

12:38
Zihuatenejo: Assuming Dozier is not a fait accompli, who else might be an option for the Dodgers at 2B?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Going with the one they brought.

12:38
Barry: Who will fill out Red Sox rotation 4th and 5th spots? Thanks

12:38
Dan Szymborski: They have a lot of options. I’d hope Buchholz option is just them being careful

12:38
Julio Pepper: Sure, but most of that came from the Sale move.

12:38
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does have Shaw at like 10 WAR over the next 5 years.

12:38
Ian: What the heck do the Blue Jays do now?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Try to get Bautista and especially EE back at a discount.

12:39
Brock Holt!: First to reach the playoffs, reds, brewers, padres or white Sox?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Brewers

12:39
Thomas: Jameson Taillon is already an above average pitcher – is that right?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: It ain’t crazy at all. The question was how good he’d be when he came back and he was pretty good!

12:40
Joe: So you’re really just gonna cop out and NOT give us your NPB version of the Caminerooooooooo song?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: I already did on twitter!

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Kare wa ch? k?soku de daremoga yorokobu, kare wa hear?zunda, r?doburaddi no pitchingumashin! CAMINERO! CAMINERO!

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Also,

12:41
Dan Szymborski: https://t.co/lAhrumDvO8

12:41
Marc: Did i miss the ZiPS for Locke in Miami? lol even that homer-repressing dome cant save him.

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Trust me, you’re not missing them at all.

12:41
CamdenWarehouse: Carson should really add the comp explanation to the posts. You seem to get the question each week. Make Carson earn his pay!

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Carson earns his pay by absorbing the souls of the recently deceased after his blood magicks have been executed.

12:42
Marc: I am not a Yankees fan. I am not an Os fan. But it angers me beyond belief that Mussina is not a HOFer by now. HOW?!?!

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Me = Angry

12:42
Joe: Wait, would you really vote for Trevor Hoffman over Curt Shilling?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: We can’t clear off Schilling this year. We *can* clear off Hoffman.

12:43
Dan Szymborski: My goal is to maximize the guys we get in and that involves making it so that there really only are 10 legitimate candidates.

12:43
Dan Szymborski: And we can’t do that without clearing off a net of four or five guys *before* the yearly candidates come in.

12:43
Sandy Kazmir: Speed round: Would you rather be a Fartasaurus or alive during the 22nd century?

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Latter.

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Future games make me sad when I realize I’m dead.

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Like Anno 2070. It’s a game that starts SOON AFTER I LIKELY DIE. That’s depressing.

12:44
Marc: Ok to vote for Bonds but also invoke the *character* clause on someone like the human dumpster fire that is Curt Schilling?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Man Marc, you’ve got the luck of the draw – just realized you’ve got a high % of questions answered!

12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s stretching the character clause a bit too far. There’s strong evidence that the intent of the clause was *on-field* character.

12:45
Dan Szymborski: And even then, Schilling’s not even a borderline candidate. He’s a clear top 30 all-time starter.

12:47
Seven Costanza: Five of the Top 9 BABIP leaders in the last 100 years (min 2500 PA) are active players (Trout, Votto, Goldy, C. Johnson, LeMahieu). That seems weird, right? Easier to have a higher BABIP now than any other period in the last 100 years?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Something like half the top 30 all-time BABIP years are in the 21st century

12:48
Dan Szymborski: And remember, with fairly low PA totals, you’re going to ge ta lot of guys not having their decline phases.

12:48
Dan: What type of production do you see from Jose abreu? I feel like there is no way he can be counted on to achieve even the counting stats from last year. Reminiscent of prior years of Freeman?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I think the 2015-2016 level is about right.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Maybe some decline slope from there.

12:49
Julio Pepper: Unfrosted? You crazy Szymborski?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Frosted pop tarts too sweet

12:49
Graver: Does Correa stay healthy and win an MVP this year?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: He *could* but Trout is always the favorite.

12:50
Scott of Linconshire: Eggnog or peppermint hot chocolate? And how come peanut butter hot chocolate isn’t a thing yet?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: I like peanuts but I’m not big on peanut butter in things really.

12:50
Dan Szymborski: I don’t reallyd rink holiday drinks

12:50
bobgoblin: Since he signed with the Cubs prior to the Sox ZiPS release, can you give a little insight on how ZiPS views Uehara?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Talked about it on Twitter and on ESPN

12:50
Dipper: No Larry Walker on your HOF ballot?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Sadly, he can’t get to 75, so he’s a wasted vote this year. The best way to help Walker is to clear off 7 or 8 other guys.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Not that we will.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Though I should say they. I’m in the BBWAA, but I have a ways to go before I vote.

12:51
Lightning Round!: Back to HOF voting preferences…. if a shoe in candidate was rumored to be possibly unanimous would that change your desire to skip them? What if you are the only one!?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I would consider that the Hall’s fault for having a stupid limit.

12:52
Sandy Kazmir: What about women managers? I’d love to see a woman show the BALLS that Terry Collins showed when he let everyone know that Matt Harvey was his guy, now and forever.

12:52
Dan Szymborski: I actually think we’ll see a women manage before play in the majors.

12:52
CamdenWarehouse: What is wrong with you!!!!???? Stuffing has to have gravy on it.

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Meh

12:52
Fat Kenny G: In your twitter pic I thought it was Andy Richter. Were you one of his twins in Arrested Development?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Better than the people that think I’m Alex Jones.

12:52
Matt: Why is accumulating WAR from ZIPS projections and adding it to some replacement win total not a good way to estimate projected wins for a team?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Because team projections aren’t “Hey, if everyone remains healthy, what does it look like”

12:53
Mark: All the Priests I play tell me ‘the Light will burn me’ before hero powering my face and passing on turn 2.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: HAPPY FEAST OF WINTERVEIL

12:53
Erik: How does ZiPS tell the difference between a high strikeout hitting prospect whose strikeouts will sink his career and a high strikeout hitting prospect who will be just fine, like Kris Bryant? What would put Moncada in one group rather than the other?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, the guys that hit *really well* with lots of strikeouts tend to project well.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: When it comes down to it, when the payoff of hitting the ball is so high, like Kris Bryant in the minors, you’re *supposed to* be aggressive.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: You want to watch out for teh Jeremy Hermida Disease

12:55
Fat Kenny G: Haven’t had a cat update in a while. What’s up?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Nobody asked.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Galileo’s sitting here eating some rochefort crumbs off a small plate.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: (he’s the gray one)

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Pandora (calico) and Mercutio (tux) are upstairs doing something. I heard hissing about 20 minutes ago, which usually means Mercutio is bothering Pandora.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Mercutio lost his playmate (Reagan, the tortie) so he bothers Pandora a lot more.

12:56
AMC: If the Jays use their remaining 30M on say, Moss, Revere, LHRP, RHRP, and a backup C are they still a playoff threat?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Most AL teams are, really, though I don’t think the field is quite as open as last year

12:56
DN: I’m using chrome, works fine.

12:56
Sean: Dan, what sort of information is ZiPS working with for Yasmany Tomas? Does the lack of MiLB data and only 950 PA of Cuban data make it harder to project Tomas? Why is there so much regression to his power (specifically ISO) even though he showed really strong batted ball data last year?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: It’s always tricky to extract specific things like that withou ta lot of work.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: It does make him more volatile – the error bars for Tomas are likely higher

12:59
Dan Szymborski: And 226 ISO to 200 ISO isn’t huge when you consider ZiPS also has the league offense moderating somewhat.

1:00
Dan Szymborski: (2016 ISO was up 11 points on 2015 and I think 27 on 2014.

1:00
Cubs Fan: I only ever watch this Chat on Chrome, and I’ve never had any issues. Sounds like a you problem, Bort.

1:00
AMC: More heat. Roman Reigns in WWE or Mark Shapiro in Toronto?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Roman Reigns has heat?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Reigns is such a bad face that he even killed Rollins’s heat.

1:01
Matt: If the moon were a piece of pizza, would ya eat it? I know I would.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Not the whole moon. That’s a lot of pizza.

1:01
RotoLando: Do you believe that a film version of The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress would be exciting or boring?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: That’s a Heinline I haven’t read.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Heinlein

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Now, I know Heinlein self-identified part of his life as a libertarian, especially in the later years, but I’m more inclined to read things from a point of view that I *don’t* share.

1:03
RotoLando: Remember Hector Oliveira? What ever happened to that guy?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: He’s not young, got busted for domestic abuse, and he doesn’t appear to be all that good

1:03
Monsignor Martinez: Hello, Dan. So what would it take to get one of your non-sequitur rants today?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: It could be anything

1:04
RotoLando: What year do Matt Kemp’s home run totals fall under Shawn Kemp’s number of children?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Ouch

1:04
ohioastrosfan: Hey Dan, hypothetical here. What would happen if an elite team at the end of a rebuild sold their assets? Say Houston sold off all major league pieces for prospects. Would that farm be GOAT? Would that team have a good shot at being GOAT in 3-5 years?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: It would be interesting, but I think it’s too hard to pull off.

1:04
Jimmy: How much do you think Turner left on the table going back to the Dodgers? 4/64 seems extremely cheap when Ian Desmond is getting $70 million

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Turner was in this weird position where a lot of the contenders and money spenders already have 3B.

1:04
Bay: Dan, would you drink a #StuffingSmoothie for $100?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: No

1:04
CamdenWarehouse: Have you ever Bayless’d one of your posts?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: I have not.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: I’m not good at self-promotion, really.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Anytime I’m on the radio, I’m super awkward if they give me that moment to plug stuff I’m working on.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: “Uhhh….you can find my work at ESPN.com. I’m on Twitter too.”

1:06
Anton: Dan, is Angel Pagan worth the pickup for teams in need of corner OF?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: At 4th OF money maybe.

1:06
Marc: I will hang up and stop calling it. but thank you for the answers. You and eno are the only ones I get published. I think I am a career 0-lifetime with Dave and Jeff combined

1:06
Jay: Is it weird that when I read “Trout” I automatically read “Trump” now? I hate my life.

1:06
Guest: Can you explain the logic behind the fact that HR’s are not counted in BABIP?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Well, the defense can’t get ’em.

1:06
Sean: Do you buy Tomas’s power? It seems very easy to him and he’s been steadily increasing his FB% since he came into the league. Darkhorse for 40+ HR next season?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: I think his power is fine. He could put up one of those wacky 1.5 WAR 40 HR years.

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Hell, he could have a 0.5 one maybe.

1:09
Dan Szymborski: If you ever wonder if we’ve *really* entered the sabermetric age, this offseason should clinch it. The 29-year-old NL home run leader and the 30-year-old AL home run leader are both free agents and have only gotten lukewarm interest.

1:09
Dan Szymborski: I think the Rockies are an awful front office, but if you go back 25 years, they’re probably somewhere around 10th.

1:10
Maxamuz: I’ve been coming to FG chats for years and I’ve always used Chrome and have never had an issue.

1:10
Guest: Is it as big a travesty that Bagwell isn’t in yet as it seems? I’m definitely biased, but I know he basically matched Frank Thomas’ home run totals every year until he was forced into retirement w/ his shoulder. And he was a far superior player across the board in most other areas

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Yes, it’s a travesty that Bagwell isn’t.

1:10
Mariners: Turn 1: N’Zoth’s first mate coin Small time Buccaneer. Is the only response “You have bested me”?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Eh, aggro decks always dominate in early metas.

1:11
Moltar: So wait, do you eat gravy on its own, like with a spoon? Gravy is basically a condiment, not a soup!

1:11
Dan Szymborski: On the turkey!

1:11
Johnny5Alive: Definitely go see rogue one of you like Star wars. One might argue it was better than force awakens. It at least wasnt just a remake

1:11
RotoLando: What is your opinion on turtles as pets?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: Seems kind of boring.

1:11
RotoLando: Instead of chewing tobacco, MLB players should chew ______?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: surströmming

1:11
Guest: FanGraphs constantly freezes Chrome. I think it’s the ads.

1:11
CamdenWarehouse: I wonder if you are a quotable source for Wikipedia on Carson’s employment.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Likely not since chat comments don’t go through an editor.

1:12
Craig: Is Jonathan Villar for real?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: I saw him play baseball so I think so. It’s a difficult optical illusion to pull off.

1:13
jon: Time preference problems, roster spots and injuries would make the UBER rebuild fail. Trading Correa/Bryant for half of a teams top 20 prospects probably still won’t work out for you in baseline WAR and you will run into problems keeping all of them on the 40 man’s.

1:13
Phil: Orioles can’t really expect to contend with their starting 5 can they? Is it even significantly better than the Reds’ or Padres’ staff?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: They contended with that starting 5 last year.

1:13
CamdenWarehouse: I, too, often have issues with the chats in Chrome. Not always though.

1:13
A cat: Does Rusney have enough of an arm to convert to pitching? It would seem to be a better use of the remaining $45mm on his contract than having him sit for four years in Pawtucket.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I’d try every failing prospect as a pitcher before throwing in the towel.

1:13
Sonny: Selig’s induction opening the doors for PED players downplays how much of an outsized impact PED users have on the way Tony La Russa is remembered. I will never believe he was a HOF caliber manager

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Now, I hate Selig as a HoFer when they had a committee that was trying to fix missing players.

1:14
Dan Szymborski: BUT

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Bowie Kuhn and to a lesser extent, Peter Uberroth, are way more responsible for the lack of a drug policy until the 2000s than Selig.

1:15
Dan Szymborski: They HAD a drug policy agreed to in the early 80s, until Kuhn screwed it up essentially by announcing that anything not specifically outlined was at his sole discretion

1:16
Dan Szymborski: And after collusion, largely driven by Ueberroth, players had no reason to want to be open on this subject without major concessions.

1:17
Dominik: Regarding high Ks and success: I think two things help: One is patience so that you at least avoid excess ks by expanding and the other one obviously is usable game power. Ks and average or below power don’t mix well. I think moncada needs to lift the ball more. He hits it hard but currently more of a lower hitter. I think it is mechanical, often his body leans forward to the pitcher a little. If he has a little better posture and more uppercut he hits more Homers and the Ks don’t matter so much. But if he whiffs 200 times with 15 Homers that’s not so cool.

1:17
Will: Just wondering, In ZiPs, how does a player’s value change depending if they play on the diamond, or they play as a DH? For ex. Matt Kemp will play the OF in Atlanta this year, and is projected to have a low zWar, but how would his value change if he was a DH for let’s say the Cleveland Indians?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: One thing I do differently is I don’t have a DH penalty – I treat it like 1B. Every study I run, no matter how I deal with injuries and occasional DH, guys appear to hit worse when playing DH than they do when playing the field

1:18
Pip: I’ve seen multiple people talk about the nationals trading for Robertson, and suggesting they would have to give up Robles. Isn’t that insane?! Robertson is teir 3, maybe sometimes a tier 2 closer. Even if the WhiteSox agreed to take on all of his salary, its still so lopsided. Are WhiteSox fans just prospect drunk or do you think there is actually something to it?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s a crazy in a win-now environment.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Robertson is only not tier one if you think 2016 is what he definitely is.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: The White Sox defense was comically bad in 2015.

1:19
Jared: Omg the gravy soup question, I’m dying

1:19
Matt: On a scale of 1 to 13, how much more difficult does using a scale of 1 to 13 instead of 1 to 10 make for interpreting the data?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: 3

1:19
Dan Szymborski: It’s more granular!

1:19
Mike: In a hypothetical world where not one SP gets injured in all of 2017, who wins the NL East?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Still Nats, but it’s much closer

1:19
RotoLando: I had to Google surströmming, and now I’m a big fan of MLB players having a can of fermented herring in their back pockets.

1:20
Dan Szymborski: OK guys, on the note of fermented fish, I have to depart for another week.

1:20
Dan Szymborski: (and won’t be around for a couple)

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone!

1:20
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: And here’s my dumb little Trumbo Wars crawl again.

1:21
Dan Szymborski:

With the O’s pulling their offer for Mark Trumbo off the table, the next episode of Trumbo Wars begins.
19 Dec 2016

video/1





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Tommyfastball
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Tommyfastball

I cannot read this bleeping thing because your advertisements keep flipping the screen to the bottom.

Baltar
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Baltar

I had so many problems with ads on Fangraphs that I seriously considered not coming here any more, even though it is far and away my favorite websight. I finally got AdBlocker for free and all the problems went away. Since you, as I, are a member, you contribute enough money to not feel guilty.