Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/21/15

Dan Szymborski: There are already 50 questions!

Dan Szymborski: I blame Cistulli for this somehow.

Jones: Braves have done a great job restocking their farm system. However, I feel like they only have maybe a couple actual elite prospects (Swanson, maybe Newcome & Albies). Would you agree, or are there some others in the system you think are elite prospects?

Dan Szymborski: While they’re nto overflowing with elites, they have a lot of *upside* guys, like some of the lower-level pitching they’ve stocked. They’re going to hit on some of those out of quantity.

David: What’s the biggest amount you earn on a bet?

Dan Szymborski: 4400. Bet on Scherzer to win the Cy Young before 2013.

TIM: Where do you stand on Machado and Bogaerts? Was last year a sign that they’ve turned the corner, or will we see some regression next year?

Dan Szymborski: Regression is always possible to some extent — the Black Magicks of Skewness Risk, but I like Bogaerts more than I did a year ago as he snapped the lid shut on some of th euncertainty

Dan Szymborski: Machado, of course, I always loved, so my opinion of him hasn’t changed. I didn’t take him in the ESPN Franchise Player Draft for 2015 because I’m from Baltimore.

Josh: Will the Cardinals add a bat or a starting pitcher? If so, which names do you think would fit? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I suspect they’ll make lower-key signings, mostly because the high-key (does that term exist?) signings left will mostly suck.

Dan Szymborski: Kazmir maybe?

Kyler: Can the Braves expect anything from Adonis Garcia or Ronnier Mustelier? Garcia played well last year and both have played well in Winter ball but short and stocky third basemen without much of a track record doesn’t exactly sound like a recipe for success.

Dan Szymborski: Garcia’s likely just a useful role player with pop. Like Olivera, he’s not ayoung guy

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t given as much thought to Mustelier, but I suspect similarly. Neither of these guys I expect to be legitimate starters

Trev: Any idea when the 2016 Depth Charts projections will be up?

Dan Szymborski: No. Gotta ask Davids.

Andolph: When Wheeler comes back, will mets have one of best rotations in mlb history?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not go *that* crazy, though I love their rotation’s future

Dan Szymborski: And present, really

JaysEastFanClub: Do you see the Jays having enough prospects come this year’s trade deadline to get another David Price type pitcher if they are contending still?

Dan Szymborski: It’s going to be tough because the pending free agents next year are going to be worse

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, there’s Strasburg. But Nats ought to be in contention.

Dan Szymborski: So they would likely, to get a guy that good, have to acquire the player more than a year from FA, which means a higher cost

Arjun: Trying to gague impact Wheeler will have. is he a 3 WAR guy? Better than Matz or no?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not go nuts – he’s coming off major surgery and won’t be ready at the start of the season

The Dude: Is it just me, or do the Orioles seem to be bidding against themselves for Chris Davis?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s accurate. When the Rangers did that, at least they were doing it with A-Rod.

Brandon: Will Kyle Schwarber hit 69 homers this year?

Dan Szymborski: No, but the 10-year-old in me giggles.

Arjune: Out of Mets starting 5(wheeler included), how many are 5 WAR guys? 4 WAR? 3 WAR? less?

Dan Szymborski: Now we’re just cheating the ZiPS Schedule Deity!

The Dude: Can we establish a rule; NO STAR WARS SPOILERS for this chat?

Dan Szymborski: Anyone who does will be perma-banned from the chat.

Baseballing: Does the abnormally higher wpa for Rizzo and Bryant suggest some timely luck and point to a regression next year for the Cubs?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anyone really thinks the True Talent of the roster going into the offseason was 97 – some regression was inevitable

Bork: Please provide more information on Casimir Pulaski. I am aware Google exists.

Dan Szymborski: Polish nobleman, fought for the Americans in the Revolutionnary War

Dan Szymborski: Szymborskis, like Pulaskis, are part of the ?lepowron clan.

Dan Szymborski: So we share the same coat of arms

Jake: Should the Cubs even be considering trading Soler / Baez for pitching? I still see these two as having such high upside that I think I would be upset as a fan if we traded them for any less than a Carrasco / Salazar type. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Everything should be considered.

Dan Szymborski: In transactions, there should be no sacred cows.

The Dude: Will the ZiPS projections be updated at some point to reflect roster changes either via trade or FA signing? (e.g. Miller is still listed as a Brave).

Dan Szymborski: Always are!

Dan Szymborski: You’ll see the Miller projection again when Arizona goes

David Jays Fan : Is the Jays system really depleted as we keep hearing?

Dan Szymborski: Not depleted, but they did deal a lot of their top cards off.

Jake from State Farm: Thoughts on Wil Myers this season? Are his hands/wrists just too fragile?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK. Wait and see.

Walt-J: Chances that all 3 of Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed, and John Lamb are long-term useful rotation pieces for the Reds? Early returns seem to indicate the reds did well in the trade market last year (Desclafani, Suarez, and the trio named above)

Dan Szymborski: I think useful, though I don’t see any of them being stars

PedroGomezII: What is the best reading material for developing/understanding projection methodologies? Specific book titles would be greatly appreciated, personal favorites as well.

Dan Szymborski: Well, there aren’t any books on baseball projsections specifically

Dan Szymborski: Silver’s books is good and talks about prediction science

Dan Szymborski: The tricky thing is that lots of the books on related subjects are more academic

The Dude: What does ZiPS have for $/WAR, and how often does that value change?

Dan Szymborski: 6.5, every year.

mshirk: What is the baseline for team zips projections? In other words, if the Yankees are projected for 35 WAR (give or take) is that 80 wins? 78? 82?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses the same WAR baseline as FG/BR of 47.7 wins. But I do not endorse simply adding depth chart WAR.

Dan Szymborski: And as Cistulli has relayed, it may result in a karate chop.

Jordan: Hi Dan, as a Jays fan, should I be wrapping my mind around the fact that the Jays are going to become the Indians with maybe a little more resources and we will be moving toward a rebuild that could start as soon as the trade deadline if the team underperforms?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure exactly where the Jays are going yet.

Dan Szymborski: But in the very early returns, the Shapiro Era appears less enthralling than the Double A Ara

The Dude: ZiPS has Wieters getting fewer PA than Caleb Joseph. Is that because ZiPS expects Wieters to get injured, or that Joseph will be played more often?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has no future knowledge of team desires.

dave: According to ZiPS. Yanks could graduate early a bunch of guys to replace the old guard this year, and the team wouldn’t actually suffer from it. Not sure if a good or a bad thing.

Dan Szymborski: At least they can add some power.

Bork: How much would an albatross of a contract like Chris Davis put back teams that really should rebuilding? I’m looking at you, Baltimore.

Dan Szymborski: As I said, the O’s are in an awkward place in which Chris Davis leaving and Chris Davis signing are both disasters

Garboclown: Obligatory YOUR ZIPS DONT MATCH UP WITH WHAT I BELIEVE ABOUT MY FAVORITE TEAM RABBLE RABBLE

RotoLando: Get your shorts ready, it’s time for DanChat

Alex: Assuming both stay at SS, who do you like more for 2015 and beyond, Addison Russell or Corey Seager?

Dan Szymborski: I think Seager’s ceiling is a little higher. Love both

RotoLando: What is your favorite trade of the off-season so far?

Dan Szymborski: Miller from the Braves side

schumpeter: Would it be wise for Dodgers start the season with some combo of Deleon/lee/montas/urias filling the rotation holes? They have a tremendous amount of SP depth in AAA

Dan Szymborski: They may have to – depends who they can bring in

Roberto: I’m depressed about my Pirates. They’re not going into the season with Niese/Locke/Vogelsong getting 60 percent of the starts, are they?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think all 3 end up in the rotation

Dan Szymborski: I mean yeah, if the season started today, they would

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think that lasts too long

Dan Szymborski: Glasnow in particular I think knocks one of them out fairly quickly

Dummy Hoy: What can you tell us about Colin Rea? Is he any good? Kinda came out of nowhere, eh?

Dan Szymborski: Not a lot of upset. Big dude who nobody followed because he threw like 85. Was hitting low 90s. Splitter change thing which I’d probably call forkball-y if anyone still used the term

Dan Szymborski: Thinking he’s most likely an inning/mid-rotation guy than someone with big upside

The Dude: A weasel hath not such a deal of spleen as Carson Cistulli is toss’d with. (Shakespeare insults really are fantastic).

Dummy Hoy: Can Brandon Drury be a league average starting 2b or 3b? Do you like his bat?

Dan Szymborski: He can be. But I suspect he’ll tend into the slightly below-average range. Probalby a lowish OBP with some pop. Mark Lewis-y?

#1 Szymborski fan (also only): WHERE ARE YOU DAN IT’S 12:01

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I was grabbing a drink

Dan Szymborski: I was interviewing someone for a non-baseball article and lost track of time

Z: Who pays what to sign Chris Davis?

Dan Szymborski: A baseball team pays United States dollars.

Dummy Hoy: Mr. Farnsworth gave Socrates Brito a 55 grade. Are you as big a believer in the bat or does he look like a 4th OF to you?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a huge believer. Triples peak at like 21.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK, but I’m more in the role player camp

Grant: Does Mccutchen walk after 2018? He already took a team friendly deal and doesn’t owe the Pirates anything. Really can’t see them trading Cutch either.

Dan Szymborski: Three years is a long time.

Tom: What are the pirates doing this off-season? They usually make smart moves but in what universe is signing sean Rodriguez for 2.5 million and ryan vogelsong for 2 million a smart use of limited resources?!

Dan Szymborski: Not that enthralled

Bork: Is Billy Beane reaching his GM expiry date? I have no idea what the A’s are thinking.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been very critical of some of the A’s moves. They lack imagination. Did like Alvarez signing.

Russell Branyan: Would you rather have Joey Gallo’s upside or Greg Bird’s high floor if you had to choose one?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the team. There’s no one correct answer for floor/ceiling

Dan Szymborski: Teams like the Yankees and Tigers ought to be interested in the floor right now, teams like the Reds and Phillies, the ceiling

John Coppolella: How is the Braves’ rebuild going? What would you do next if you were me?

Dan Szymborski: Trade Freeman. There’s no value in winning 70 games over 67

Dan Szymborski: People go ITLL KILL THE ATTENDANCE. But there’s not really much evidence in that – I haven’t found any attendance benefit when looking at the issue.

RotoLando: During a Back to the Future marathon, what percentage of the time are you looking at your computer/phone/anything other than the screen?

Dan Szymborski: Well, I sleep 8 hours a day

Aaron Schwartz: Your site is making my fan run overtime lately. What gives?

Dan Szymborski: If you let XTC work your senses overtime, surely you won’t begrudge ESPN working your computer fan.

Dan Szymborski: Or are you referring to FG? You have to talk to Davids about FG questions.

Kylo Ren: The Royals are gonna be bad in 2016, right? Lost Zobs, Cueto, probably Gordon.

Dan Szymborski: Dave Eiland is a warlock.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: They work together.

The Dude: Excerpt from In Bloomquist: He’s the one who likes to play baseball
And he likes to swing at balls
And he likes to bunt them foul
But he knows not how to play
Knows not how to play baseball.

Dan Szymborski: Appreciate you working on the song.

Nuke Laloosh’s left eyelid: carlos correa’s triple slash next year is?

Dan Szymborski: BA/OBP/SLG

Kylo Ren: Agree or disagree: Whoever signs Chris Davis is going to severely regret it.

Dan Szymborski: Agree

RedsManRick: We’ve seen the recent rebuild strategies in Houston and Chicago whereby the organization razes the roster, collects value, and builds from where it can create an organizational strength. In Cincinnati and Arizona, it seems we have franchises myopically targeting individual pieces/roles at the cost of good value in trades (or in being able to complete trades at all). Am I perhaps on to something in terms of the dynamic between smart/”less smart” franchises?

Dan Szymborski: Weaker organizations tend to be less flexible.

Dan Szymborski: Look at the REds and Frazier

Dan Szymborski: CANT TRADE FRAZIER NOW WE JUST HAD ALL STAR GAME

Dan Szymborski: OK WE HAVE TO TRADE FRAZIER RIGHT NOW NOW QUICK GET THE BEST PACKAGE YOU CAN IN THE NEXT 15 MINUTES

MARK: Im a bit concerned with the White Sox rotation. They go L/L/L with Sale, Quintana, Rodon before the falloff. Shouldn’t they be targeting a solid righty for the top of the rotation instead of an OF bat?

Dan Szymborski: The quality is more important than the rightiness.

The Dude: Who are the Cy Young winners in 2016?

Dan Szymborski: Don’ tknow, it’s 2015.

Justin: Will the Dodgers successfully acquire a player that anyone gives a crap about this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, though it won’t appease the part of the writing corps that flipped their lids about the Lo Duca trade

The Dude: Welcome to the Szymborski Mediocre Hour, where words like “euncertainty” and “ayoung” appear within the first few minutes.

Julio Pepper: If that Nats offer Harper a 10/400 extension tomorrow does he turn it down?

Dan Szymborski: Tough one. I’m actually not sure

JKD: I initially liked the Brandon Phillips (not a) trade for the Nats but more digging got me very alarmed – other than a two-year plateau in 2010-11, Phillips’ ISO has declined *every year* since his peak of .197 in 2007. It was .100 last year. Wilmer Difo’s entire MLB batting line is 2-for-11 with 2 singles and Steamer likes him for a better-than-.100 ISO. And the fact that the sticking point was Phillips wanting an *extension* on 2/$27M makes me feel this was a huge bullet dodged.

Dan Szymborski: Phillips is worth acquiring at his contract, but not worth giving up significant prospects or making significant financial considerations above and beyond

GSon: Will the Dodgers eventually make a deal that sticks?.. Perhaps with Cleveland?.. Salazar for four guys not named Seager or Urias?..

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers will make a deal for Salazar only to find out that he’s starting his own caliphate.

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers will make a deal for Carrasco, who two days after signing will become a Carthusian monk.

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers will acquire Jose Fernandez, who will insist on only throwing left-handed in order to protect his right arm for the future.

NotJustinUpton’s Agent: Where do you think Justin Upton ends up? I mean,where wouldn’t an all star outfielder with legitimate power fit?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but he’s not really a star, and likely to get paid more.

DLowe: Hey Dan! Do you think Giles will close in Houston? With that team and starting staff, how many saves do you figure he will get?

Dan Szymborski: I expect he ends up being the closer

GSon: Is being perma-banned from this chat a punishment or an inducement?

Copp: Hector Olivera + Ender Inciarte + Julio Teheran + Arodys Vizcaino for Kyle Schwarber + Billy McKinney + Carl Edwards Jr. How does this look? Would this package at least make Epstein curious? It fills their need in CF, they get another rotation arm, and they get some bullpen help. From my side, I get an outfielder who fits more in the timeline of the rebuild, and we have a whole wealth of pitching that we can trade away. Inciarte is the “overpay” required for a talent like Schwarber, but I’m okay with flipping him since Mallex Smith is in line to take over CF. What do you think?

Dan Szymborski: While they’d consider it (there ougth to be zero interest in Olivera though), I don’t think they’d odo it in the end

Dan Szymborski: They already filled their need in CF.

John N. Braca III: Over/under 3.50 ERA for Yordano this year?

Dan Szymborski: Over but I like him

Gary: Was Appel the consensus #1 when Houston took him, or where there people thinking they should have taken Bryant then?

Dan Szymborski: He was prety consensus, IIRC

Meowmix: If the Cubs were to get someone like Enciarte and move Heyward to RF, what would their defense rank? Top 5?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Kylo Ren: Wait a minute, are you saying the Cubs aren’t a 97 win team? Or can you clarify?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty much all 97 win teams have more go right than go wrong.

Dan Szymborski: That’s why regression exists.

Dan Szymborski: Very rarely are teams truly better than 93 or 94 wins on paper on average when you consider the uncertainty of the outcomes

Jordan: Brad Miller in Tampa… Better?

Dan Szymborski: Than what? Prime Cal Ripken, no. A bag of oats? Absolutely.

Derek: So you’d permaban someone for spoiling Star Wars during this chat, but you’re the one who picks the questions? So wouldn’t you get permabanned? Which FG writer would you want to replace your Monday chats?

Dan Szymborski: They don’t know if I saw it or not, so they’d possibly be spoiling it for me.

Dan Szymborski: It’s the principle

Zonk: You commented strongly on how much ZIPS loves Adam Warren. What do you think, is ZIPS over-valuing or are we under-valuing Adam Warren?

Dan Szymborski: I would take the under, but ZiPS has proven me wrong before.

Michael: Was the growing Friedman backlash/cynicism/skepticism always inevitable?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Certain troglodytic LA writers didn’t get smarter.

The Dude: Is the 2016 Mets rotation better or worse than the 2011 Phillies (Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt/Worley)?

Dan Szymborski: Wosre

Paul: How much do players take into account past fan interactions I.e fan abuse at ballparks or on Twitter when making free agency decisions?

Dan Szymborski: Find me one and that’ll make one.

David: Lindor, Frazier, Ureshela, Kaminsky and Johnson for Areando and Cargo. Who says no first?

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully the Indians.

Dan Szymborski: Lindor’s 2015 emergence means he’s more valuable than Arenado straight-up

Dan Szymborski: (and I like Arenado)

Dan Szymborski: And CarGo just isn’t *that* valuable

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’d happily give Gonzalez 2/37 in the free agent market. But I’m not going to spend a lot for that privilege.

Q-Ball: Indians beat writer says that the Tribe does not plan any major moves beyond Napoli and Rajai Davis. While those are useful guys, I still see them as really struggling to score runs, particularly before Brantley returns. What do you think? Should they look for another OF bat, or roll with Davis/Almonte/Chisenhall OF to start the season?

Dan Szymborski: They should try at least. The AL Central has no really strong teams.

Dan Szymborski: Hell, the whole AL is weak at the top

Shane: Is Mookie Betts a top-20 player in baseball this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s very possible

jg: Does zips change for a guy like Miller based on a new home park/slate of opponents in arizona?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Kylo Ren: How would you determine win projections if not baseline + depth WAR = Win prediction?

Dan Szymborski: Proper simulation that takes into account depth.

Dan Szymborski: Which is how I do my predicted standings.

Dan Szymborski: Adding the depth chart always makes the 2014-2015 Reds look better than they are and the 2014-2015 O’s worse.

Bork: If we add up depth chart WAR, can it result in a karate chop to Cistulli?

Dan Szymborski: No, he gets chopped for free. But you guys get chops

Matt: How do you see Danny Valencia performing this season?

Dan Szymborski: with your blood still warm on the ground

Dan Szymborski: And I swear to the stars that I’ll burn this whole city down

j6takish: Whats worse? a team that refuses to commit to a rebuild, or a good team in contention that refuses to “go for it”

Dan Szymborski: Both are bad.

RotoLando: If ZiPS could talk, what accent would you give it? I’d say bad guy from Lethal Weapon 2, or Jinx from SpaceCamp

Dan Szymborski: Geoffrey Holder

December 21st: WHat’s your favorite Christmas song/carol?

Dan Szymborski: The Die Hard soundtrack?

Dan Szymborski: or maybe Angels We Have Heard on High or o come, o come, emmanuel

ROBOCOP: Better match for the White Sox outfield? Gordon, Cespedes, Upton, or other? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Cespedes. His power will play well in the Cell

Dan Szymborski: HEY THAT RHYMES

The Dude: It’s tragic that when people think of Matt Bush they immediately think of his vehicular assault, but totally ignore that he once beat up a high school lacrosse player with a golf club screaming “I’m Matt f*%king Bush!”

Sandy Kazmir: Better AA-named leader of men: Alex Anthopolous or Arn Anderson?

Dan Szymborski: Sorry Alex, but nothing beats Arn Anderson

RotoLando: Can I get excited about Trea Turner? I’m going to get excited about Trea Turner.

Dan Szymborski: You should follower your heart.

Jeff: Wouldn’t it be rude of rookie like Glasnow to KO a vet like vogelsong? He’s not papelbon. Also, he’s not coming up until super two deadline

Q-Ball: The Heyward contract includes a $20 mil signing bonus that is deferred. However, if Heyward opts-out, that signing bonus is paid immediately. Barring major injury, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Heyward does NOT opt out, right? At 3/78, is that still likely to be a good deal for the Cubs?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. I’d rather have Heyward at 3/78

Michael: What do the Rays do? You can see them getting lucky and that rotation decimating the AL, but they still feel like a 81-81 team.

Dan Szymborski: That’s about how I feel

Zizou: How many people are in this chat right now?

Dan Szymborski: At this very moment 303, but in past history, usually a couple K uniques during the entirety of the chat

Dan Szymborski: You get a lot of people who dip their toes in but obviously see OH CRAP, ITS SZYMBORSKI TODAY I FORGET THAT MONDAYS IN FG CHAT SUCK and do something else

Tyler: Hi Dan, I’m a young writer just starting out on a new website created by a buddy. I just wrote an article about the White Sox, thought of the idea semi because of your ranting on teams not committing to plans. I was wondering if you could give me any feedback/criticism on it?

Dan Szymborski: Email me. I have a busy afternoon, so may not be able to read it today

Darth Garth: Thoughts on Ian Desmond market? He’s got to be kicking himself for turning down the Nats extension offer right?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but he’ll do better than Jody Reed

Bip Roberts: Are the Reds going to start Scott Schebler in LF? Can he smack 25 jimmyjacks?

Dan Szymborski: They might. I’m not expecting much.

Dan Szymborski: Even an OPS in the 770s in the PCL before injury puts him in non-prospect territory.

MikeMilligan: Evidently Dodgers still trying to acquire Fernandez. What’s the minimum they would have to pay for him ?

Dan Szymborski: I expect Marlins have very high demands. I can’t see Miami letting him go right now without either Urias or Seager and I think the Dodgers will balk

RotoLando: Is Joey Votto going to be the lonliest man in Cincinatti?

Dan Szymborski: From my experience in CIncinnati, the loneliest person is the one trying to find chili that doesn’t taste like pumpkin pie filling

Chuncey Wiggins: Dan, which stadium would look the best with a moat?

Dan Szymborski: Truth is, a forbidding moat enhances most stadiums

TKDC: What could trading Freeman get the Braves that could possibly be better than Freddie Freeman? Best reasonable case scenario is they get a player who ends up providing about 6 years of above average play for less than what they’re paying Freeman, so basically the argument is for salary relief?

Dan Szymborski: That’s not the point. Freeman’s performance the next couple years has little real value to the Braves.

Dan Szymborski: Tacos are way awesomer than lifejackets. A drowning dude gets no value from tacos.

Chuncey Wiggins: Why does the MLB refuse to let batters use aluminum bats in the Home Run Derby?

Dan Szymborski: Aluminum bats sound terrible.

Dan Szymborski: Wood goes thwack. Aluminum sound like some dumbass neighbor backed into his metal railing by that stupid tree stump from the tree him and his idiot friends cut down a couple of years ago in the middle of the night with the help of a rope and ap ickup truck

Jordan G: What information would you love to add to ZiPS but cant because it not available or possible?

Dan Szymborski: Historical pitch data.

Hugo Z: Should Frank Wren name his next son “Kylo”?

Dan Szymborski: Of course.

Julio Pepper: Does simulation also take into account schedule? The Cubs are great, but they have the misfortune of playing in the NL Central.

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Derek: Would you have a preference between all OF having 3 WAR seasons while the 2B/SS/3B are replacement level or vice versa? Or would they both be equal?

Dan Szymborski: No preferecne. Depends on situation

Jordan G: Did you play MLB Showdown? I miss that card game.

Dan Szymborski: I did not.

Fred: You seem pretty dickish, but I still like you.

Julio Pepper: Did I read your tweet correctly from a while back, that Alex Rodriguez WAS PROJECTED FOR 82 WAR over the next 10 seasons, when he was 25?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Projected as a SS, that is (he actually ended up at like 72 from 2001-2010)

GSon: Dan <== took his share and one other’s share of smart ass pills today?

Dan Szymborski: Every day. I hope there are no side effects.

Real: Who’s your favorite chatter in this chat not named Dan Szymborski

Dan Szymborski: Daniel Szymborski. “Dan” is just an alias I go by.

Bork: Don’t beat yourself up too much Dan. You’re no Eno but you’re not at the bottom of the chat world.

Brandon: CAT UPDATE PLZ

Dan Szymborski: I see Galileo asleep on my office couch. Heard someone sneeze in the distance.

Guest: goddamn it dan now I want tacos. Thanks for doing that right after my lunch hour is over

Dan Szymborski: Well, I also offered you a life jacket.

Jordan: So do you lean toward the side that Heyward will translate to CF no problem? Even though no one has provided any evidence indicating that this is a smart move? (If you have any please provide)

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine. The typical COF–>CF and CF–>COF defensive change relative to average at hte position is about 10 runs.

Dan Szymborski: WIth that changing based on speed score – Heyward’s faster than the average corner outfielder.

Joey Joe Joe: Yeah, you’re the chlamydia of FG writers. It sucks, but it’s not really that bad.

Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re 10 minutes past 1.

Dan Szymborski: Time for the LIGHTNING ROUND

Dan Szymborski: The rules of the Lightning Round are simple: I must answer every question, so long as it’s off-topic, with the exception of extremely personal or work-related things. Whether or not I have any insight or knowledge of the issue is no excuse for me not answering.

Bill: Have you reached the age where you can’t eat certain things because they burn on the way out?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. I have had to cut back on spicy food considerably in the last 3 or 4 years.

Guest: when I get off work where should I get some tacos from

Dan Szymborski: Restaurant

Joey Joe Joe: Diarrhea or constipation?

Dan Szymborski: The spicy food? Diarrhea.

Dread Pirate Roberts: Best Duke – non Daisy division.

Dan Szymborski: Arthur Wellesley

TommyLasordid: Gang of Four or Wire?

Dan Szymborski: Wire, though neither are my cup of tea.

Derek: Did you watch the Dem Debate on Saturday? Who do you think won?

Dan Szymborski: I did not.

Kylo Ren: Which Matrix film is better: Reloaded or Revolutions?

Dan Szymborski: Reloaded.

RotoLando: How many years do you think you would have to train to get a white belt in Gymkata?

Dan Szymborski: Just need a montage.

Jordan: Mysterious Challenger… why?

Dan Szymborski: God I hate that card.

Yed Nost: Do you play video games and if so, did you play The Witcher 3 this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, yes.

RotoLando: I won’t spoil Star Wars, but can I complain about the heat in Florida? That may be more obnoxious, depending where you live.

Dan Szymborski: You may.

Dan Szymborski: The dictatorship of Florida Man is a serious geopolitical issue.

Terrible Ted: Robot wars or Battle Bots?

Dan Szymborski: Robot Wars

Derek: What music album should I listen to during my lunch hour?

Dan Szymborski: The single of Wonderful Christmastime by Paul McCartney. After listening to that straight for an hour, you could spend a week in a Bangladeshi prison and it’ll feel like paradise.

Derek Carr:

Joey Joe Joe: What did you get your mom for Christmas?

Dan Szymborski: Cuisinart stand mixer

Sean: Favorite Wire character?

Dan Szymborski: Stringer Bell

Dread Pirate Roberts: Ever bought a as seen on TV only item? What was it?

Dan Szymborski: RonCo Rotisserie some years ago. And it’s amazing.

RotoLando: Do you have any food allergies we should be aware of?

Dan Szymborski: Lobster, mushrooms

TommyLasordid: Eddie Haskell or Maynard G. Crebbs?

Dan Szymborski: Eddie

Joey Joe Joe: Do you change your underwear every day? (I don’t)

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Kylo Ren: Have you seen Episode VII yet?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Bork: Florida Man is a man of many talents…and crimes

RotoLando: Better David Patrick Kelly role: Sully in Commando, or the guy from The Warriors?

Dan Szymborski: Warriors, come out an dplay

GSon: Merry Christmas, Dan..

Dan Szymborski: THATS NOT A QUESTION

Terrible Ted: Lightsaber but no Jedi powers or Phaser set to stun?

Dan Szymborski: Phaser. I would cut myself with a lightsaber inevitably

Jeff: BB-8 or R2D2??

Dan Szymborski: BB-8. I got a hold of the toy and it’s an amazing cat tormentor.

Kylo Ren: What are your thoughts on Grantland’s collapse?

Dan Szymborski: Work-related reason.

TommyLasordid: Yes in the rock ‘n roll hall of fame?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Bork: Listen to Polka music the entire time during the Szymborski hour.

Dan Szymborski: Command or your personal modus oeprandi?

Derek: When people ask me what I want for Christmas, and my answer is to donate something to a charity, but they still get me a present, does that mean I’m the charity or they just didn’t listen to me in the first place?

Dan Szymborski: They think you’re pathetic enough that giving to you is as good as a charity

Casimir: Did you know that the city of Chicago celebrates Pulaski Day each march, with the school children getting the day off and the adults getting zimne piwo?http://www.nicholashartman.com/_images/fine-art/f_Old-Style.jpg

Dan Szymborski: I actually did not.

RotoLando: If you had to take up hoboing, what would be in your bindle?

Dan Szymborski: A gun? Hoboing seems like tough work.

The Dude: In Bloomquist Excerpt He’s the one with the sub .200 OBP
And he likes giving outs for free
And he likes blowing like the breeze
But he knows not how to hit
Knows not how balls off of tees

TommyLasordid: Best Christmas song: Silent Night/Christmas Card from a Hooker in Minneapolis

Dan Szymborski: Silent Night is a good song. Listening to Tom Waits makes my throat hurt.

Derek: Would you ever consider pulling a Dock Ellis at a baseball game? (as a fan, obviously you’re not going to pitch)

Dan Szymborski: LSD a little much for me.

Kylo Ren: Write a haiku with your opinion of Episode VII, no spoilers.

Dan Szymborski: Star Wars in theaters, holy crap it doesn’t suck, new experience

Joey Joe Joe: Do you follow an other sports closely?

Dan Szymborski: Football, esports, basketball to a lesser extent.

Jordan: Merry Christmas Dan?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know yet, it’s the 21st.

RotoLando: Fake crab meat is called “krab”. What would your DanCo brand fake lobster meat be called?

Dan Szymborski: Beef.

Jordan: Am I the last person on either that has never seen any of the Star Wars and has no interest in the latest?

Dan Szymborski: There are people in Asia who still ive in caves.

Dan Szymborski: Also people that were just born or in a permanently vegetative state.

GSon: Ram 150 Hemi or Chevy Silverado?

Dan Szymborski: Silverado

Bork: Not a Star Wars spoiler or anything, but can you post on your twitter afterwards what you think the role Finn will be in the future movies? Saying his name doesn’t count as a spoiler does it?

Dan Szymborski: That counts as spoiling.

TommyLasordid: Happy Holidays or Season’s Greetings?

Dan Szymborski: Happy Holidays’

Dan Szymborski: I can’t give greetings for the Season. Let winter do it’s own damn work.

Dan Szymborski: “Season’s Greetings” also sounds like something you would ironically say to someone when you’re about to kidnap them.

BK: What’s the coldest place you’ve ever been?

Dan Szymborski: Toronto this past January and San Francisco one July.

TommyLasordid: https://vimeo.com/33803455

Joey Joe Joe: Am I gonna get some skanky for my hangdown tonight at my XMAS work party?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure your situation.

Dan Szymborski: Depends on booze.

Kylo Ren: What is your favorite number?

Dan Szymborski: 33. Becuase it can also be EE, WW, and MM.

BDiddy: What is this Star Wars you speak of?

Dan Szymborski: It was in a galaxy real far away

Derek: Would you rather have snow on Christmas Day or spend Christmas day on a beach on a sunny 75 degree day?

Dan Szymborski: Beach.

Dan Szymborski: Christmas usually involves me going somewhere or someone coming here, in which case I’d have to shovel snow

TommyLasordid: What is, “I’m with jordan”?

Dan Szymborski: A sentence with three words.

Zonk: I never understood the whole Cincinnatti-Chili thing. I don’t think it’s very good there. But pumpkin pie filling?

Dan Szymborski: That’s what it tastes like t ome.

TommyLasordid: Columbia or the Philippines?

Dan Szymborski: Columbia. Shorter flight.

BK: Poutine, y/n?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: In Chicago a few weeks ago, for breakfast, my companion had poutine with sausage gravy and an egg on top.

Dan Szymborski: I stole some of hers, but htat’s ok, she stole some of my chicken and bacon waffle.

Joey Joe Joe: I’m in the midst of an affair. That makes me a terrible person, correct?

Dan Szymborski: Probably.

Dan Szymborski: Unless you mean you’re in a sequence of events, which can be good or bad obviously.

Terrible Ted: Would Joe West trade his singing career to be well regarded as an umpire?

Dan Szymborski: If he actually cared about that, he’d make an effort to not be terrible.

Roberto: Columbia or Colombia?

Dan Szymborski: Columbia. I have issues with heights and a whole floating city would not be up my alley.

BK: Halifax has a place that does thanksgiving style stuffing on poutine. Great snack at 3 am

Derek: How fast can you run a Mile? (if you actually tried to)

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never timed it. I can still run a mile, but need to more often.

Dan Szymborski: I’m surprisingly agile for a fat guy. Thanks to heredity, I have amazing lungs.

TommyLasordid: Is orange the new lime?

Dan Szymborski: Blood orange is the new lime.

Fred: I forget. Are you the volcano dude?

Dan Szymborski: I have no magma chambers.

Kylo Ren: If there were a Wonderlic test in the MLB, who would score lower: Dusty Baker or Dave Stewart?

Dan Szymborski: Dusty maybe?

Walt J.: Whats your 40 time?

Dan Szymborski: Never timed it. Probably 5-something. Depends on my motivatgion.

Terrible Ted: Pick a fluent third language

Dan Szymborski: Spanish

The Dude: Thoughts on the highly annotated Mein Kamp being released in Germany?

Dan Szymborski: Good. Censorship is wrong. You fight hate with truth, not concealment.

Jimmy: More dangerous – driving or flying in general for the same amount of time (or distance – up to you)

Dan Szymborski: Driving is more dangerous, but I rather drive.

Dan Szymborski: Until we get above 400-500 miles, then I prefer flying.

BK: Worst injury?

Dan Szymborski: Torn wrist

RotoLando: What are your top 3 cured meats?

Dan Szymborski: lardo, speck, jamon iberico

Fred: Ever been to Patagonia? El Calafate? The Glaciers etc? Simply breathtaking. But my gf wouldn’t boink me on the glacier.

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Terrible Ted: Favourite other chat to read on FG?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t usually have time for reading chats

BDiddy: Stuffing, gravey, cheese on fries is called Newfie fries… tastes so good but your not running a 40 for the rest of the day

Dan Szymborski: I would have thought Newfie Fries would be like styrofoam peanuts or something

TommyLasordid: Owen Meaney or Billy Bathgate?

Dan Szymborski: Billy Bathgate

Zonk: Where is the best ballpark food?

Dan Szymborski: Milwaukee

Bork: What games are you playing this week?

Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone, WoW, maybe some Just Cause 3

The Dude: What are your top 3 *cursed* meats?

Dan Szymborski: Cursed salami, excommunicated beef, unsanctified pork.

Terrible Ted: Would you rather take care of a newborn for a year or a low functioning geriatric?

Dan Szymborski: Geriatric

kramer: jar jar binks or ewoks?

Dan Szymborski: Ewoks. You at least get to see some dead Ewoks.

Walt J.: How do you like the new chat program?

Dan Szymborski: I like it, though I have ot figure out how I would do a music chat

Rinky Dinky: What show should I binge watch over the holiday?

Dan Szymborski: The Man in the High Castle

TommyLasordid: NorCal, SoCal or CenCal?

Dan Szymborski: North

BDiddy: that might be desert

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the s

Zonk: I agree on Milwaukee….the best bloody mary I have EVER had was at Miller Park! No joke!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not much into Bloody Marys. They’re mostly served at a point at which I intend to still be asleep.

Dom P: Favorite RPG ever? <any platform>

Dan Szymborski: Suikoden II. Then Final Fantasy VI.

kramer: best sports nickname?

Dan Szymborski: Hugh “Losing Pitcher” Mulcahy

BDiddy: Best QB all time – Joe Montana or Tom Brady

Dan Szymborski: Montana.

Zonk: Only one spoiler I want to know in new Star Wars: Jar Jar is not in the film, right?

Dan Szymborski: You have to face your own horrors.

Copp: So Olivera doesn’t have much value you say… IF he gets off to a .280/.330/.420 slashline, what would I be able to get back at the trade deadline next year?

Dan Szymborski: Not that much.

The Dude: Are you pumped for Captain America: Civil War? Also, are you horrified with Batman vs Superman trailer?

Dan Szymborski: Not pumped, but interested. And yes.

Bork: Suikoden 5 is a close second to 2 when it comes to that series.

Dan Szymborski: Suikoden V was great too. It’s sad it’s looking like we’ll never get a VI

Dan Szymborski: I like the political plots and schemes in the Suikoden games.

Dan Szymborski: And I like goofing around with different characters.

BDiddy: Can you ice skate?

Dan Szymborski: I have not tried.

Dan Szymborski: My companion a few weeks ago wanted us to skate at millennium park, but then I think she realized that she doesn’t skate either and she’d have to try, not just amusingly watch me.

The Dude: Did you like The Martian?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen it.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been to two movies this year; STar Wars and Spectre.

BK: Speaking of bloody mary’s, are “bloody caeser’s a thing in the states? Big improvment.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen it

Jordan: Why the geriatric, a new born doesn’t talk, and you get to fill its little head with all your crazy theories

Dan Szymborski: I have experience with the elderly. I’d help my grandfather out after he was bound to a wheelchair and I used to donate time and play piano at a nursing home.

RotoLando: Batman v Superman trailer looks like WB confused Lex Luthor with The Joker.

The Dude: Ping pong or air hockey?

Dan Szymborski: Air hockey

Bork: Would you want a VI or a remake of 2 on current gen?

Dan Szymborski: VI, though I don’t want an action RPG

Bork: Also Konami has never said there ‘wont’ be a VI but that’s just me being extremely optimistic.

Dan Szymborski: Kate Upton has never said she won’t date me, either.

Chet: Coffee or tea?

Dan Szymborski: Tea

Terrible Ted: Most regrettable lifetime purchase?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball Stars 2

Dan Szymborski: YOU COULDN”T EVEN CHANGE THE NAMES

Dan Szymborski: and various trips to Taco Bell

BDiddy: Donald Trump or Bill Burr for president?

Dan Szymborski: Burr. I’d vote for Aaron Burr first.

Taylor: Is there any reasonable world in which Delino DeShields II can play a respectable 2B again?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t seem likely

Copp: Steph Curry’s mom or Stacy’s mom

Dan Szymborski: Even though she must be like 50, Stacy’s Mom is still Rachel Hunter

Bork: Verlander just beat you to Kate, that’s all.

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure.

The Dude: iPhone or Misc?

Dan Szymborski: Misc? I guess.

rustydude: Cam Newton or Russell Wilson?

Dan Szymborski: Wilson

BK: Replace the tomato juice with clamato juice

Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen that, but they don’t call it a Caeasar here

BK: Age of Empires / Kings fan?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Billy Corman: Just checking in. This Dan Szymborski Fangraphs Chat is by Carson Cistulli? Is he sponsoring it or what’s the deal?

Dan Szymborski: The chat is by Dan Szymborski. The post about the chat is by Carson Cistulli.

Dan Szymborski: Billy Beane didn’t write Moneyball, after all.

Terrible Ted: Trout Vs. Kershaw? – both are 6 beers deep

Dan Szymborski: I’ll take a drunk pitcher first.

RotoLando: Are you proficient with chopsticks?

Dan Szymborski: Moderately.

Copp: If the baseball gods made a deal with you that your team would win the world series only if you were willing to contract a non-life threatening STD would you do it?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: AND STOP

Dan Szymborski: I’m caught up.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!

Dan Szymborski: As always, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

Uther: Did you enjoy this week’s brawl? What character did best for you?