The Champs and the Projections

Back in November, the Kansas City Royals were crowned champions of the baseball world, and rightfully so; they won all the necessary games! The Royals are the champions, and they’ll continue to be the champions until a new team is crowned champions in the upcoming October. Could be that the new champions are just a different Royals team, but that seems unlikely. Mostly, it seems unlikely because it’s really hard to repeat World Series titles. That hasn’t happened in 15 years. But also, it seems unlikely for another reason.

See, we’ve got player and team projections here on the site, and when looking toward the future, it’s usually better to rely on the projections than to rely on whatever subjective beliefs we can quickly work up in our own heads. The projections, by and large, are pretty darn good, and those pretty darn good projections thinks the Royals roster, as currently constructed, is the opposite of pretty darn good. Right now, at this very second, the Royals, the world champion Royals, are being given MLB’s sixth-worst team projection, a little worse than the Twins and Orioles and a little better than the Padres and the Rockies.

I know, I know. The projections didn’t much like the Royals in 2014, either, and they were one game away from being the champions. The projections didn’t much like the Royals in 2015, either, and now they are the champions. The projections have a two-year history of whiffing on the Royals, and plenty of Kansas City fans have scoffed at the forecasted 2016 numbers listed here on this site.

But this Royals roster, at this very second, is quite a bit different than the roster that won the World Series. The roster that won the World Series had a Johnny Cueto in the rotation, but this one doesn’t. The roster that won the World Series had an Alex Gordon and a Ben Zobrist in the lineup and the field, but this one doesn’t. The roster that won the World Series had a right fielder with more than 86 career games played, but this one doesn’t. The Royals have lost a lot — Cueto, Gordon and Zobrist were worth about nine wins last year (not all to the Royals, of course) — yet they’ve gained very little.

Of course, they’re going to gain some, but they’re not getting Cueto or Zobrist back, and it sure doesn’t look like they’re getting Gordon back. Looks like Omar Infante might again be the Opening Day second baseman, and the best starting pitcher they could hope to land looks like Scott Kazmir right now. Plenty of big-name outfielders are still out there, but the Royals don’t figure to be players for them. More than likely, the Royals pick up a veteran, mid-tier outfielder for one corner, and run a platoon in the other.

While the Royals seem likely to add some projected wins through the end of the offseason, it doesn’t figure to be many. Even if they were to pick up, say, five projected wins through the rest of their offseason moves, a figure that feels high, their team projection would still fall below league average, pitting them between the Rangers and the White Sox.

Point is: no matter what happens, the 2016 Royals aren’t going to project well, by the numbers we currently have, and that’s fascinating. More likely than not, the World Champions will project as something like a .500 team, at best, on Opening Day, and people aren’t sure how to feel about that, especially given the last couple years. Rightfully so. I’m not sure how to feel about it either, which brings us to the second half of this post.

I’m just interested in knowing how people feel about the individual player projections. The individual player projections make up the team projections, and knowing more about the former can help us learn about the latter. I’ve grouped nine position players, five starting pitchers and a closer below, all with some relevant statistics and a couple comments for extra information. For each player, there’s some positive facts, and some negatives facts, to allow folks to see both sides. I tried my hardest to balance the two, so as not to sway the vote too much. There’s a chance that some bias slipped through the cracks — it can be impossible to avoid — but just know, if you notice any, that it wasn’t intentional.

All you need to do is look at the statistics and the words, and then express your own opinion. Easy enough! If you think the projection looks good, with an error bar of 0.5 WAR or so in either direction, then select “About right.” If you think the projection seems off, for whatever reason, then say so in the poll. I’ll let this run for a little while, and we’ll review and discuss tomorrow!

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An optimist might say that regression goes both ways, and that Salvador Perez had established a level of performance prior to his career-worst 2015, and we should expect him to regress upwards a bit. The career-worst BABIP should come up, and now that the Royals have won it all, perhaps his workload gets reduced, keeping him fresher.

A pessimist would argue that Perez’s offense has been in decline for all five of his major league seasons, and that the BABIP was similarly-low last year. He’s taken quite a beating since entering the league, and perhaps the wear and tear has taken a toll on him already.

An optimist might say that Hosmer is coming off his career-best season while entering his prime at 26 years old, and has looked, in two of the last three seasons, like the player he was expected to become in his top prospect days.

A pessimist would argue that Hosmer has never pieced together consecutive above-average seasons, and just one year ago was a league-average hitter who turned in a replacement-level season.

An optimist might say that Infante dealt through injuries last season, and that with a clean bill of health, we should expect him to return to something close to his three-year average.

A pessimist would argue that Infante is entering his age-34 season, making it difficult to fully bounce back from injury, and that he was the worst hitter in baseball last year, so the bounceback would have to be a major one to return to his previously established level.

An optimist might say that Moustakas is coming off his career-best season while entering his prime at 27 years old, and finally looked like the player he was expected to become in his top prospect days.

A pessimist would argue that Moustakas has never done anything close to last year’s production in a much larger sample throughout his career, and that we need to see him do it again before we buy in.

An optimist might say that just a year ago, Escobar was nearly a league-average hitter, and that the postseason showed the kind of impact he can make at the plate.

A pessimist would argue that, in two of the last three seasons, Escobar has been among the game’s worst hitters, and that his career batting numbers are among the worst of active hitters.

An optimist might say that Dyson’s been nothing but productive in his still-somewhat limited career playing time, and that, given the opportunity to play every day, the numbers would translate to a well-above average starter. Also, that he’s graded as one of the game’s best defenders, worth something like +20 runs saved per season in the outfield thus far.

A pessimist would argue that Dyson’s been efficiently platooned throughout his career, and so we can’t expect his career numbers to translate in an everyday role since his struggles against lefties would be exposed. Also, that we still don’t have even three seasons worth of defensive data, so we need to regress his +20 runs saved per season a bit.

An optimist might say that Cain hinted at stardom in 2014 and reached it in 2015, and has established a new true talent level, meaning we can discard what happened before then with greater certainty than usual. He’s been one of the game’s best for two years, now.

A pessimist would argue that last year was the first time Cain had ever played a full season, that the sudden power spike wasn’t real, and that we can’t reasonably project anyone to continue being a +20 run defender, especially now that Cain is entering his age-30 season.

An optimist might say that Orlando has the type of profile shared by other successful Royals hitters, that it’s hard to project guys without much of a major league track record, and that his skillset plays well in his home park.

A pessimist would argue that Orlando didn’t crack the big leagues until his age-29 season for a reason, that his numbers were propped up by an absurd triples rate and home run power never-before showcased in the minor leagues, and that it’s very difficult to succeed with the type of plate discipline he showed last year.

An optimist might say that Morales was the Royals’ very best hitter last year, and that Morales has shown the ability to play at a similarly-high level in the past. Also, that his three-year numbers are perhaps unfairly bogged down by a dreadful 2014 in which he sat out the first three months and had never had time to find his groove.

A pessimist would argue that, having sat out or not, Morales was still arguably the game’s worst player in 2014, and that at 33 years old with an injury history, we have to expect regression from his 2015 performance.

An optimist might say that Ventura was excellent in the second half, and that his first half numbers were perhaps due in part to fluky sequencing. Also, that whole 100-mph fastball thing.

A pessimist would argue that Ventura has never pitched as many innings as his projection in a single season, and that the upside hinted at by his velocity isn’t matched by his swing-and-miss or strikeout totals.

An optimist might say that Volquez is coming off a career-best season, and has looked like a changed man since going to Ray Searage and the Pirates in 2014.

A pessimist would argue that Volquez’s long track record of mediocrity doesn’t bode well for future success entering his age-32 season, and that it’s difficult to bank on balls in play continuing to treat him as kindly as they have the past two years.

An optimist might say that Medlen was one of the game’s best pitchers between 2012-13, and that now that he’s had some time to shake off the rust of a second Tommy John, we can expect him to look more like his former self.

A pessimist would argue that Medlen has pitched just 58 innings in the last two seasons combined, and that he didn’t look very sharp last year, coming off his second Tommy John surgery. Also, the track record on guys with two Tommy John surgeries is pretty bleak.

An optimist might say that Duffy has finally stayed mostly healthy for the better part of two years now, and that just a year ago in 2014, he posted a 2.53 ERA over 149 innings.

A pessimist would argue that Duffy is projected for more innings than he’s ever thrown in a single season in his career, and that the 2.53 ERA was propped up by an unsustainable BABIP surrounded by underwhelming peripherals.

An optimist might say that the projections have no idea what to do with Young, who’s perhaps baseball’s most notorious peripheral-beater. All he’s done is get outs these last couple seasons, and he’s got the type of profile that could age well.

A pessimist would argue that Young is still 37 years old, and has never been able to stay healthy — his projected 168 innings would be his highest in nine years. All it takes is a few of those balls in play to start dropping in and you could have a disaster on your hands.

An optimist might say that Davis is a cyborg who’s pitched like a cyborg lately, and that the projections unfairly factor in his mediocre days as a starter, when he wasn’t yet a cyborg.

A pessimist would argue that relievers are volatile, and that we need to expect regression, even from cyborgs.