Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/14

Dan Szymborski: Begin Communiqué.

Comment From Guest
When are the Nats’ Zips projections going to be up?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’re scheduled to go up Thursday.

Dan Szymborski: That lily-livered mountebank Cistulli has the Astros projections for tomorrow, then Rangers, Nats, A’s, Giants final order.

Comment From StevePete
Woo!

Dan Szymborski: Woo backwards is oow, which means something that I can’t figure out.

Comment From zack
Who takes a further step back this season: Reds or Pirates?

Dan Szymborski: Pirates by a hair, but that’s only because they’re starting at 94 wins in a dropoff scenario. I think that the wild card fight will look a lot like last years.

Comment From Jack
Hi Dan,

Dan Szymborski: Hi Jack!

Comment From Jack
Have there been any studies looking at the SB effects of adding to plus plus speed guys that hit relatively close to each other in the line up? For example, will SB go up for Gardner and Ells or Choo and Martin? Will one’s SB totals suffer if they hit behind the other?

Dan Szymborski: Ah, it was the prelude to a question! YOU WERENT JUST SAYING HI TO ME! INsulted. Anyway, I can’t think of a study directly on point to this, though that’s not a guarantee that one doesn’t exist.

Comment From jda
Holy cow! Is the Alcantara projection the most surprising one you’ve seen this year?

Dan Szymborski: One of the.

Comment From Jerkface
When you run Zips projections on a pitcher like Tanaka, what factors going into that projection? Obviously they do not have a major league/minor league background to project from.

Dan Szymborski: We don’t, but we have a lot more US–>NPB and NPB–>US data than we had when Hideo Nomo came over.

Comment From Guest
Who are the top few prospects according to ZIPS career projections?

Dan Szymborski: Right now, top 10 hitters, 25 and under, by future WAR in ZiPS: Trout, Harper, Machado, Baez, Polanco, Sommons, Buxton, Profar, Salvador Perez, Bogaerts

Dan Szymborski: The same list, with pitchers: Fernandez, Sale, Miller, Teheran, Corbin, Harvey, Quintana, Moore, Cingrani, Cole, Wheeler

Dan Szymborski: ACK THATS 11!

Comment From David
How badly did the NYYs shoot themselves in the foot by NOT signing anyone significant for their infield, then going and blowing the luxury tax limit on Tanaka?

Dan Szymborski: I talked a little bit about this on MLB Network Radio this weekend. Essentially, if they were willing to go over the luxury cap after all, all this kabuki theater the last 2 years about going under was for naught.

Dan Szymborski: They didn’t *have* to endure a Chris Stewart season and go with a motley crew of outfielders.

Comment From Chim Richels
Homer Bailey had a nice break out last year, yet zips still sees him as the 2011/12 version. Whats the reason for the pessimistic projection?

Dan Szymborski: Well, because all good pitchers will have some regression because risk skewness. I actually named Bailey one of my favorite 2nd/3rd tier breakout candidates in a peice several days ago.

Comment From Guest
Reds lose Choo + Arroyo, add no one.

Dan Szymborski: HOW CAN YOU FORGET DOUBLE S SKIP SCHUMAKER

Comment From JonCor
Do you expect Ryan Zimmerman to improve at all with the bat or is what we see what we get? Had more promise a few years ago, it seems. Looked like he had perennial MVP in him as opposed to just above average 3B.

Dan Szymborski: He’s good enough to have a MVP *type* season in him in an upside year, but he turns 30 at the end of the year. He is what he is at this point. and his 24-25 bump is now looking liek his ability peak.

Comment From Jack
any theories about adding two plus plus speed guys that a line up that bat close together? will managers spread them out so that they don’t hit close together?

Dan Szymborski: They don’t *typically* but I don’t have the data in front of me to confirm.

Comment From Calbear949
What were the best and worst FA signings this offseason in your opinion?

Dan Szymborski: I hate the price on the Choo signing. Love the Garza figures, Tanaka’s evaluation is really right on (and the Yankees needed him) and I love the upside of a cheap Josh Johnson signing that comes with a terrific option

Comment From Guest
Bryce Harper said Saturday he “couldn’t stay on the ball to save [his] life” because of the pain in his knee and it feels good to be able to hit pain-free. To put up .274/.368/.486 line as a 20 yr old with that bothering you…not bad eh?

Dan Szymborski: Bryce Harper is good at baseball.

Comment From Gigi
Are there particular projections that you’ve run over the years that seem so off from your expectation that they make you think that the system needs tweaking?

Dan Szymborski: Dangerous mindset. You tweak models when you encounter *systemic* problems, not individual ones.

Dan Szymborski: You’re *supposed* to be wrong a lot.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Dan is nad spelled backwards. Which means balls.

Dan Szymborski: So I’m the opposite of balls. See, I thought I was such a badass.

Comment From Mooser
It seems like teams this year are coming closer together in terms of true talent. Are you finding from your Monte Carlo sims that less teams are projected to be over 90 wins and under 70.

Dan Szymborski: Not finding a huge compression – it’s just that the two recent doormat teams are a little less doormat-y. Projections are always going to have a tighter spread by definition, given those are all mean projections.

Comment From Carl
I know its a physically demanding position, but why are there so few well-rounded catchers? at the elite level, I mean…

Dan Szymborski: I think you’ve answered your own question! Catchers have pretty depressing aging curves – there are a lot of really promising catchers that just don’t develop offensively

Comment From Dan
Since you don’t give GB rate on the fangraphs zips, any chance we can get a screenshot of some of the highest GB’ers so far?

Dan Szymborski: Triggs, Ziegler, Kluber, Carson Smith, Scott Rice top 5.

Comment From Mark
What are chances of a bounceback year for Pujols? How does ZIPS see him until end of contract?

Dan Szymborski: His contract’s going to be a big loser, but ZiPS does have him rebouding to at least 2012 levels.

Comment From Perry
Who is the most surprising FA signing thus far? Cano to Seattle?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Loney’s contract – TB usually doesn’t sign mid-tier free agents like this.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Salty to the Marlins. They have to pay money!

Dan Szymborski: Or possibly Astros signing Feldman.

Comment From Jim
What can the Pirates do at 1B? Is Lambo someone you can trust? Hurdle isn’t going to use Gaby against RHP is he?

Dan Szymborski: I expect they’re going to keep going after a trade with Gaby n’ Friends the fallback position.

Comment From Brittany
The press covering the Yankees’ offseason seems to be decidedly negative. Do you think the Bombers may be entering 2014 dare I say it…underrated?

Dan Szymborski: No. There are still a lot of people out there talking like the Yankees are in the first-tier of contenders.

Comment From Gigi
If Strasburg continues at his current production, will some continue to see him as a disappointment?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but some people are stupid.

Dan Szymborski: For example, I think Blurred Lines was the best selling MP3 in history.

Comment From PP Jutz
Really enjoyed your ESPN article on pitchers who could take the “Scherzer leap” (Bailey, Latos, Samadzija, Porcello, Masteron, Nova). I am curious why Zimmermann wasn’t on the list? He seems the most logical to me along with Latos.

Dan Szymborski: Zimmermann already had a top 5 pitching WAR season, so felt that was cheating – he’s already a realistic contender. Well, for 2nd as long as Kershaw exists.

Comment From Grack Zeinke
KLaw has said that Garza will be a hot mess for the Brewers, fwiw.

Dan Szymborski: If I agreed with Keith on everything, there wouldn’t be a point to paying me to write.

Comment From Eric
How does George Springer High K % translate to big leagues? Any players we can look at as comparibles?

Dan Szymborski: Trying to trick me into giving a projection early!

Comment From Ringlesby Pratchett
Who is the best defensive outfielder available on the free agent market?

Dan Szymborski: You mean this offseason or now?

Dan Szymborski: This offseason, rpobably Ellsbury

Dan Szymborski: Looking at the bleak remains of what’s left, probably Fuld now.

Comment From Ringlesby Pratchett
Any thoughts on Kyle Blanks? Is he a capable outfielder and does he have enough contact skills to be a valuable hitter?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s just a role player going forward.

Comment From StevePete
Last night I had a dream that I was playing poker with Tony Danza at the Grammy’s for the right to sign Scott Baker to the Angels… he was trying for the Phillies. My dream log is trying to catch up to yours.

Dan Szymborski: Just as long as you’re not cheating and taking imagination enhancing drugs!

Comment From Treehorns Thug
Your name is Szymborski, Szymborski. Your wife is Bunny.

Dan Szymborski: heh

Comment From Jake
Can Robertson be a long inning kind of reliever, a la sparky lyle? Would the Yankees seriously benefit from getting him to 85-90 IP as opposed to 65 IP, in line with the principles outlined in the book, that relievers don’t used enough?

Dan Szymborski: Not going to happen.

Comment From Bruce
Why do teams seemingly ignore advanced statistics when evaluating players? do they use dial phones to make trades as well?

Dan Szymborski: Teams are far better at it than they used to be.

Comment From Mooser
Any team projecting less wins than Astros and Marlins this year?

Dan Szymborski: Astros still project to the bottom. Marlins may not be *horrible*

Comment From Not Carlos Santana
What kind of defensive rating does Carlos Santana get at 3B?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty ugly one. Justin Masterson must be cursing that move.

Comment From Kevin
That depressing age curve for catchers makes me appreciate elite catchers all the more! What will we be saying about Yadier Molina 20 years from now?

Dan Szymborski: “Holy shit, all those Molinas got really fat after they retired.”

Comment From zack
If you had to bet does AROD play another MLB game again?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Brian
Apologies if you’ve been asked this before, but when would you estimate the entire ZiPS 2014 data is available for download?

Dan Szymborski: A week or so after final team goes up.

Comment From Dan
how boring is a batista headlined WM main event? Ugh.

Dan Szymborski: Kind of a surprise that they’re going that way.

Comment From Tom
Which team is most likely to win 100+ games this year?

Dan Szymborski: Off the top of my head: St. Louis

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Better bounceback candidate for this year: Pujols, Hamilton, Kemp

Dan Szymborski: Pujols > Kemp >>>>>>>> Hamilton

Comment From Mooser
What is the typical SD for you sims? 7, 8?

Dan Szymborski: You’re in the neighborhood.

Comment From Jake
If TB wins the series, do they we get a money ball sequel? Perhaps called Loneyball?

Dan Szymborski: You just wanted to say Loneyball!

Comment From Jake
Brett Gardner’s projection is just plain ridiculous. Oliver gives him 15 more def. runs than Steamer, both see a wRC+ ~100. Fans call 4 WAR on a 114 wRC+ and 4 def. runs. Why the harsh projections? How many wins is he good for?

Dan Szymborski: Part of the problem is that it’s unclear to me what position they’re projecting him at. Is Oliver still treating him as a CF? I really don’t know

Comment From Sadwick
What opposite of balls would that be though? Biologically it would be ovaries. Spatially it would have to be a bubble or pocket in something otherwise solid. Grammatically it’s sllab. And metaphorically you get a coward. Take your pick I guess, though ovaries seem logically out. Dan “sllab” Szymborski?

Comment From airfigaro
Speaking of “True Talent” numbers for teams, are there 2014 projections for teams yet? Are they published on theses pages?

Dan Szymborski: I usually have them on ESPN.

Comment From Jerkface
Is it hard to watch games live at the ballpark due to the numbers and formulas swirling around all the players? Do you find yourself loading up excel mobile on your phone to find respite?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never found it to be a problem.

Dan Szymborski: My only issue watching games live is that I have to remember to wear earplugs.

Dan Szymborski: (as I do for most crowd scenarios)

Dan Szymborski: The way my brain works, I’m terrible at filtering out unneeded information. If I’m in a crowd of people and don’t have earplugs in, I end up individually hearing every conversation around me.

Dan Szymborski: So I guess I’m slightly crazy?

Comment From Ringlesby Pratchett
So, if you’re Seattle and you know you need to back the Cano signing up with substantial roster improvements, where do you see these improvements coming from? The remaining #3 FA starters lack some inspiration..

Dan Szymborski: At this poitn? Nowhere. Unless they finally make a trade for Price, there is no substantial improvement coming.

Comment From zack
Does the Hunter Pence deal look better in hindsight given the other deals of the offseason? It seems like analysts once again underestimated the level of salary inflation.

Dan Szymborski: No. I’m getting a 5.45 median implied value where I predicted 5.3 coming into the season. At least by ZiPS, for Giants to get their money’s worth, average value of a win next 5 years needs to be over 98.

Dan Szymborski: 9.

Dan Szymborski: Not 98.

Comment From Grack Zeinke
who do you think the Bucs are prepared to give up for Ike Davis at 1B?

Dan Szymborski: Only a second/third-tier guy, nobody making awaves on any lists.

Dan Szymborski: Like Pimentel.

Comment From lost GM
Who has the better next 3 years Jimenez or Santana. Who signs em?

Dan Szymborski: I think Jimenez. Blue Jays ought to grab Jimenez, not sure about Santana.

Comment From Mike
What do you think the Nats should do about 1B after this season?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, they’re going with what they have.

Comment From Jake
Oliver and Steamer disagree on who’s gonna be worse in the OF, Beltran or Soriano. I think both have pessimistic projections, especially Soriano. Who should get more time at DH? You think Soriano’s projections are unfair?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll split time fairly equally (and depends on injuries, etc). I don’t think either of the projections are unfair.

Comment From Jake
Is Texiera due for a rise in BABIP that should save his career? His FB isn’t insane, ~45%. Would he benefit from trying not uppercut the ball so much, like he did before 2009? I love Tex, and his projected .247 BABIP makes me sad 🙁

Dan Szymborski: Well, ZiPS had him up to .259 if that makes you feel better (probably not). I don’t think he’s changing much at this point.

Comment From Jake
How long till Dean Anna starts at 2B? Months or years?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m not sure how high the Yankees really are on Anna.

Comment From Jake
Santana gets the same ERA from Steamer and Oliver, similar IP, but Oliver tacks on a run to his FIP, up to 4.66, and gives him 2 less wins. Fans call FIP somewhere in between. who’s right? Santana’s a two win guy, right?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll believe Santana will be somewhere around league average. He could be a better, though there’s a very low floor.

Comment From Guest
Lucas Giolito #13 on BP’s top 100 despite only 37 innings pitched. You a believer?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little aggressive for me. But I’m more inclined to rank lower-level pitching prospects lower and higher-level ones higher.

Comment From Mark
You neglected to mention the Jeff Francis minor league deal when discussing the improvements the Reds have made this offseason.

Comment From Parlor Dave
With all the advanced statistics out there, does anyone just watch excellent pitchers anymore…you know, just to watch them excel at their craft? i.e. do many people “Stats Out” the enjoyment of baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I almost never have any stat in front of me when I’m watching a game.

Dan Szymborski: No tablet, no phone. Now admittedly I have a good memory.

Comment From The King of Royal Farms
Does Jameson Taillon firmly take over a spot in the rotation by midseason?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

Comment From Grack Zeinke
no I sense way more calling the Yankees to “still miss the playoffs” than calling for them to “get back to the playoffs.” I feel like Yankee hatred is driving this and the Yankees are going to cruise to the playoffs and I’m not a Yankee fan.

Dan Szymborski: It *could* happen, but I just don’t see it. The Yankees are ancient, still have holes, and their upside is limited.

Dan Szymborski: There are serious depth issue and the Yankees have little in-system help.

Comment From Craig Breslow
Thoughts on Miguel Sano possibly breaking camp with the Twins?

Dan Szymborski: He could play in the majors now, but there’s really no purpose for a team like the Twins to rush him.

Comment From Jake
What deal that was meant to be was the biggest miss? That is, what perfect player club match went unmade?

Dan Szymborski: Tanaka to Seattle

Comment From The King of Royal Farms
Thoughts on the Edinson Volquez experiment?

Dan Szymborski: Meh. If Edinson Volquez threw a baseball out of a plane, he’d miss the ground.

Comment From Guest
Heard some commentary that Jackie Bradley Jr is a better defender than Ellsbury. Does your data support that?

Dan Szymborski: With the caveat that minor league data is frigging awful, my Total Zone minor league thingie has him around average.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
are “keep forever” formats sustainable? I have been playing in a few leagues where there is no limit on the # of years you can keep players and the rich just keep getting richer in those formats.

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the people involved. You have to have *some* churn in leagues.

Comment From Jake
Could the Yankees get Nick Franklin with some of their leftover starters? Should they?

Dan Szymborski: They shouldn’t, but they won’t. Someone would (and should) be able to outbid the Yankees.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
My coworkers apparently just found out that Macklemore exists and I am lucky enough to be experiencing a spirited debate about whether he is A) the single brightest star of his generation or B) not a rapper. Any tips on faking a sudden-onset illness?

Dan Szymborski: I only realized he existed this year too.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really into hip-hop.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Jeff post about Greg Maddux’s command made me watch games from the 1995 World Series. Which let my eyes witness Jim Thome playing 3rd base.

Comment From Snibby
With Fielder in the 3 hole will he put up monster #’s

Dan Szymborski: Texas will make his numbers look better (in the short-term, he’s not a great bet to age well), but I don’t think he’s going to have monster, MVP type numbers.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Have you ever seen pudding with proof in it?

Dan Szymborski: The proof of the pudding is *in the eating* not just in the pudding. It’s not Jell-O’s fault if people misuse a saying!

Comment From Ringlesby Pratchett
Capuano or Baker in a nice pitchers park, who walks out with a smile on their face?

Dan Szymborski: Capuano

Comment From saskatunes
Wouldn’t it have been awesome is Neko Case won a Grammy last night?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah. Like most white indie music male fans on the internet, I have a crush on her.

Comment From Parlor Dave
How good would a Simmons/Arenado left side of the infield be?

Dan Szymborski: A baseball would have better luck crossing the event horizon of a black hole than getting past those two.

Comment From Boston Phan
Do you think the Astros’ strategy has bigger long-term negatives in terms of alienating the fan base and ruining their supposedly lucrative TV deal?

Dan Szymborski: The team was so devoid of talent that there was no solution without spending a billion dollars that owuld have them not suck in recent years and now.

Comment From Homer Baileys breakout
re: Homer Bailey being a 2nd/3rd tier breakout candidate in a piece several days ago…where can i find this article?

Dan Szymborski: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/story/_/id/10328382/mat-latos-pitchers-poised-break-big-way-2014-mlb

Comment From Jake
Who do the Yankees point to and say, “that’s our fifth guy.”

Dan Szymborski: I think Pineda gets firs tstab.

Comment From Steven
When do we get the Garza projection?

Dan Szymborski: If you were on Twitter, you already got a full image of his projected seasons.

Comment From Jake
The Yankees win the WS in 2014, and make the playoffs in 2015 and 2016, helped out by ~7-8 wins from Beltran. What hat does he wear to the HOF?

Dan Szymborski: A of ’em.

Dan Szymborski: All of ’em

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Batista headlining WM is not surprising at all. They have been doing the “bring the aging star off the scrap heap” for the last 5 years. It’ll be more surprising when he wins the title. But his WM main event with the Undertaker and HHH sucked, and that was 7-8 years ago.

Comment From The King of Royal Farms
Any thoughts on Ryan Webb’s role for the Oreos?

Dan Szymborski: 8th inning guy

Comment From Ringlesby Pratchett
Is it a good move for the Cardinals to trade J. Garcia for middle infield/1B depth?

Dan Szymborski: I think Cards should generally hang onto what they have now and see what nasty surprises arise.

Dan Szymborski: Ellis is really good depth and guys like Descalso, Garcia, etc. are good enough to be depth.

Comment From Mike
What moves could you see the Braves making to get them at least to the point where they are co-favorites with the Nats?

Dan Szymborski: I already think they do.

Comment From Bob
Do you think the fans take these projections far too seriously?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a wide array of views on projections. Some people take them way too seriously, but there’s still a OMG ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! crowd

Comment From Joe
Do you ever eat/drink at Tank’s on Wayne Avenue?

Dan Szymborski: Actually have not. I do most of my drinking at Chappy’s in Moraine and up there in Dayton, I’m more likely to go to South Park as they always have a great rotating beer selection

Dan Szymborski: And really good pizza – they’ll make pizza with the spicy garlic sauce they have as a wing option

Comment From Dave
Garza was not on the Brewers when the Zips were released. Will there be a release after the last team to clean up those sorts of “omissions”?

Dan Szymborski: Always is.

Comment From Guest
When Baez and Alcantera get called up, who plays where? When does it happen?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re sorting it out.

Comment From Bkgeneral
Is Matt Wieters a disappointment?

Dan Szymborski: A mild one. He’s a really good defensive catcher, but he’s never developed itno the offensive force that many hoped he’d e.

Comment From KSSoxFan
EARPLUGS? But then you don’t get the crack of the bat! How do you know what pitch is thrown if you can’t hear it! Ugh, was that a Trouble With the Curve flash?!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t need earplugs that make me completely deaf, just enough that some of the nearby conversations are soft enough for me to ignore

Comment From Jake
Could the Yankees ever trade Ichiro? What could they get, how much money would they have to toss in?

Dan Szymborski: They’d have to eat most of it and in Ichiro’s case, he may just retire rather than be traded to somewhere he doesn’t want to go

Comment From Eminor3rd
Who gets fired first: Jack Z or Dayton Moore?

Dan Szymborski: Z-Funk.

Comment From Jake
Should I get a signed Dean Anna ball now, Dean Anna jersey with Dean Anna insignia and the January copy of Mokena Monthly (the town where Dean Anna was born) with Dean Anna on the cover, with the letterhead “Anna happy new year!”? Or should I calm down about?

Dan Szymborski: I like Dean Anna, but I wouldn’t go to that end.

Comment From dave
Could we get a Tanaka projection for those of us who aren’t ESPN insiders?

Dan Szymborski: When the spreadsheet comes out 🙂

Comment From GI Joe
What do you think of Kinsler in 2014, slight rebound or a continued slide?

Dan Szymborski: Rebound

Comment From Grack Zeinke
Given the Mets org depth I wouldn’t think Pimental would have much value to them. I would have much rather gotten Haniger from the Brewers. Haudricourt thought the Brewers preferred to deal from OF depth than arms.

Dan Szymborski: Not necessarily Pimentel specifically, but that’s the type of prospect the Mets are likely looking at.

Comment From Curtis
Carl Crawford go .285/10/25 next season?

Dan Szymborski: A little aggressive. Call it 270/10/15 and I’d be more excited.

Comment From Jim
Do you think the Jays realistically sign one of Santana or Jiminez? Who would be a better fit and why? Does that put them into the conversation as Wild Card contenders?

Dan Szymborski: They *could* don’t know if they would. Jimenez better fit – he’s got the higher upside and Santana’s downside would be a nightmare in a HR friendly park.

Comment From Jake
Best FA-club matchup left to make?

Dan Szymborski: Jimenez-Jays. I was actually going to write something on the Jays, but Swydan beat me to it!

Comment From Grack Zeinke
if the Yankees “holes” are IF depth, they make up for it by being deep elsewhere. That, and I still expect a Rickie Weeks to NYY to happen at some point to go toward suring up 2B somewhat. NYY lineup will score tons of runs and so if Tanaka is anywhere near projections, they will be very good. If I had a nickel for every year I said the Yankees wouldn’t make the playoffs bc they were old…

Dan Szymborski: You can’t combine a bunch of mediocre-to-middling 2B into one really good one.

Dan Szymborski: Where are they making it up? The OF has all sorts of downside. The bullpen is thin. The starting pitching looks ugly after 5.

Dan Szymborski: You can’t just assume “OK, if everyone’s healthy than it’ll be great” because that’s not a reasonable expectation even for a lineup that *isn’t* nearing AARIP membership

Comment From Jake
Minor League data is friggin’ awful, eh? Why does oliver go so totally nuts about it then? Always funny seeing a 3 win split between Oliver and Steamer on anyone under 25.

Dan Szymborski: You’d have to ask Brian.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Scott Kazmir in OAK: what’s not to like for 2014?

Dan Szymborski: Well, his injury risk for one.

Comment From Eminor3rd
What is the most overrated thing?

Dan Szymborski: The sun.

Dan Szymborski: You know how many ancient cultures revered the sun?

Dan Szymborski: When that bastard runs out of hydrogen, we’re in for some nastiness.

Comment From James Kennedy
AL East and AL West are two most interesting divisions, no?

Dan Szymborski: NL Central very interesting.

Comment From Eminor3rd
I would eat 80 proof pudding

Comment From Guest
Do you review your projections from previous years? Do you find outliers or systematic bias? (Ex. – Do any team projections have year to year results consistently skewed one direction?)

Dan Szymborski: Always. The low-hanging fruit is long picked.

Comment From Gila Monster
If you were the Red Sox, what kind of extension would you offer Jon Lester? Is something like 4/$75m acceptable considering Wainwright is signed to 5/$97m,Sanchez at 5/$88m,C.J. Wilson at 5/$78m, and Garza’s 4/$50M deal.

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re looking at 4/80, 5/100 as reasonable bids and even those may not succeed.

Comment From Snibby
You ever home brew?

Dan Szymborski: That’s one thing I haven’t done

Comment From Guest
Fielder in Texas. over/under: 40 HRs

Dan Szymborski: Under

Comment From Beattie
Do Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez get a shot in the Cards rotation this season? I’ll be disappointed if they don’t.

Dan Szymborski: Rosenthal, that ship has sailed. Martinez *maybe*

Comment From Kevin
ZiPS hearts Rizzo. Such a tease…

Comment From Justin
If MLB was to expand to 32 teams, where would you put the 2 additional teams?

Dan Szymborski: Realistic or where I would?

Dan Szymborski: If I was the dictator of baseball and the municipalities, a third team in new york and one in either San Antonio or Charlotte or Raleigh-Durham

Dan Szymborski: MLB most likely to do Portland or Las Vegas I think

Comment From jda
This is probably me being dumb, but why does a player’s OPS+ or ERA+ projection change (sometimes drastically) when they get traded? If you’re using event-specific park factors then shouldn’t that account for the difference? Thanks for clearing this up!

Dan Szymborski: Because park factors assume an average distribution of ability.

Dan Szymborski: But player abilities are not all distributed the same way as a typical player.

Dan Szymborski: Take the Cell. It’s not a big run park, but it *is* a big homer park.

Dan Szymborski: Now put Ben Revere in there – he can’t take advantage of what makes the Cell a hitter’s park.

Dan Szymborski: So a player *can* be more or less valuable in a park if they get less of a hit or more of a boost than the average player would get in a park.

Dan Szymborski: OPS+ and look at the relative value of a run.

Comment From Jake
Jesus, Brian Cartwright’s mustache. That thing is a’kickin. http://i.imgur.com/znMfm5J.jpg

Comment From HBOs Dexter
Dexter Fowler in Hou will ____________________.

Dan Szymborski: play baseball.

Comment From Brew
I don’t understand KLaws’ hate of the Garza deal. sure the Cardinals probably run away with that division but they can definitely hang with the Reds Pirates and others for an entertaining WC battle. Also its basically a guarantee the Cubs lose 100 games now right ?

Dan Szymborski: No, the Cubs didn’t lose 100 games last year and they had a boatload go wrong the second half.

Comment From Evan
Oliver has Adam Wainwright worth 20+ wins over the life of his 5/97.5 extension. Good move by Mozeliak or is ZiPS less high on him?

Dan Szymborski: You really shouldn’t use Oliver in this manner – Oliver projections are full-season ones.

Comment From gareth
Whos your favorite Muppet, Dan?

Dan Szymborski: Dr. Bunsen Honeydew

Comment From Grack Zeinke
why does the expansion city question come up in every chat??

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’ve had that one before.

Comment From Sadwick
I think San Antonio and Charlotte are the realistic two, no way the Mets and Yankees let another team set up shop in my mind. San Jose would seem like a possibility after they fought to try and bring in the A’s. Now where would I put them? Opposite sides of the moon. Why? BECAUSE YOU GAVE ME SUCH POWER, AND I SHALL EXERCISE IT AS I PLEASE!!!!!!

Dan Szymborski: I did preface a note that I had dictatorial powers.

Comment From gareth
Is Ervin Santana the Kyle loshe of this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Nah, that’s Kendrys Morales and Nelson Cruz.

Dan Szymborski: Both who are now slowly realizing that teams only want to sign them for a couple years, but that there value of a 1-year or 2-year contract, because of the draft pick, is exceedingly minimal.

Comment From gareth
Very interesting you chose Bunsen over beaker………..

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, time to leave for another week.

Dan Szymborski: If you’re listening to me, you probably know where to find me and my work.

Dan Szymborski: End communiqué.