Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/7/15

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD THE QUEUE STARTED

Dan Szymborski: CHAOS! DISASTER!

Dan Szymborski: You guys have been here for 30 minutes?

Dan Szymborski: NEW SOFTWARE CONFUSING DAN. DAN IS RESISTANT TO CHANGE~!!!!

Reunion: Iwakuma got 3/45. Same for Kazmir? If so, A’s are totally in that price range.

Dan Szymborski: Think Kaz will get a touch more.

Chris: Do you think it’s time for Brandon Morrow to accept the fact that he simply can’t stay healthy as a starter? I’ve always thought he would make a dominant late inning reliever.

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Think he should go for being a reliever.

Bret: Interesting stuff in the Jays’ ZIPS. Should the team be looking to upgrade at 1B, or is the Smoak/Colabello platoon fine?

Dan Szymborski: Always, if possible. Now, the starting pitching is a bigger concern, but sometimes you don’t have good options

Adam: Any advice for a college student aspiring to work in an MLB front office?

Dan Szymborski: Learn programming/database stuff.

Winter:(: What do you think Jon Niese’s value is?

Dan Szymborski: Trade value? Not much. Really, he’s just an innings eater at 3/30 and while he’d likely get a bit more in FA, not a ton.

stephen: Dan, did the royals really need Sofia? Sure, he’s good and they just lost Holland, but what’s the strategy here?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not, but as I said on Twitter yesterday, Dave Eiland is The Scarlet Witch.

NotYourAverageBear: What kind of trade value does Lawrie have? young, controllable. Will he definitely be moved and if so, to who?

Dan Szymborski: Not really that much. He was more interesting back when had greater upside. Without an offensive step forward and his defense regressing, he’s far less interesting than a few years ago

Jim: Are the acquisitions of Craig Kimbrel and David Price enough for Boston to get back on top, or do they need to get a second quality starter just to bolster things a bit?

Phillies113: Why does everyone get so upset when they hear a trade rumor and it’s “Team Y is asking for (outstanding prospects, young phenom, etc) in exchange for Player X”? It makes sense to ask for a lot at the start, and then whittle down until you reach a deal. That’s Negotiating 101

Dan Szymborski: Hey, where’d my answer go!

Dan Szymborski: While another starter is nice, the Red Sox have a lot of bounceback potential – they did get worse-than-mean projection performance from most of the staff

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but sometimes negotiations start so far apart that they can cause serious issues for future negotiations – people don’t like wasting time.

Dan Szymborski: If i”m selling my house for $400,000 and someone offers $15,000, that tells me that they’re not serious and I’m less inclined to waste time on them.

Stuafoo: I give you a player with a .100 OBP and average defense at a position of your choosing. How fast would he have to be to make him a league average player? Like 1 second to first?

Dan Szymborski: There’s no speed that you can take him. Because the main benefit of his speed in reaching first would reflect in his OBP if he had any value

NotYourAverageBear: If the Pirates move Walker, do they fill the hole at 2B with another trade? Could they get a 3B and have Harrison move to 2nd?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm

Dan Szymborski: Soryr.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little hard to tell, so much can happen in the winter and they’re a creative team.

dewey1441: Hi Dan! Adam Dunn has always been my favorite player. Who is your pick for his best comp playing today?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s actually a great one. Jose Bautista is better and doesn’t strike out enough to match Dunn. Maybe Davis?

NotYourAverageBear: With Chapman off the board, do we see the market for other available closers heat up? Who is the most valueable?

Dan Szymborski: Britton would be the most interesting, but I don’t think O’s seriously do it

Jaime: What are the odds that the Mets can work out an extension with one or more of their core young pitchers? What would it look like?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty good, depends.

The Dude: Free Agents most likely to sign during this chat session?

Dan Szymborski: Zobrist, simply because I’m writing a piece on him after this chat

Los: Every time you post the Pete Kozma e-mail exchange on twitter I can’t help but laugh. I don’t get how people cannot understand that good teams somehow have crappy players.

Dan Szymborski: Lousy players always get too much credit for good teams. Great players always get too much credit for bad teams.

NotYourAverageBear: If the DBacks get another solid starter and a couple elite bullpen arms, is it not fair to say they’re a real contender for the NL West?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re already close enough to be interesting, though far from the favorite.

Curtis: Where to the Ms go for starting pitching now that Iwakuma is gone?

Dan Szymborski: I think they look at Chen. Not because of some Asian player quota, I simply think he’s a good fit there.

Jake: Hey Dan, thanks as always for your time. NYY is still in a weird place; most of their money comes off the books next season, in line for one of the worst FA classes in a while. Assuming the right trade never opens up, does signing Heyward+Wei Yin Chen give them a reasonable 90+ win expectation for 2016?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably take the lighter side of that, simply because there are a lot of things that can quickly go horribly wrong

Neil Huntington: What kind of deal do you anticipate Cliff Lee getting and is there any way of knowing who might be interested yet?

Dan Szymborski: 1/10 possibly

erniecamacho: Dan!!

Dan Szymborski: Ernie!!! More exclamation points. I win.

The Dude: When a team signs a good free agent, they win the “[player’s name] Sweepstakes.” What do you call it when a team signs a really mediocre player?

Dan Szymborski: Funny.

leprekhan: Your projections for the Braves are understandably low. Who amongst the Braves offense has the best chance to outperform their projections?

Dan Szymborski: Olivera as there are unknowns.

David: J.Ross/T.Turner for C. Seager. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers

Trainman: So how scared should we be of the Dodgers? Chapman- Jansen combo, rotation though after Kershaw has questions. Do they pay for Cueto now?

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers with their money and willingness to spend, are always a threat for any good pitcher available.

Guest: What would you do if you’re the Mariners Gm now?

Dan Szymborski: Get to Nashville really quick since I’m not there and I really should be.

Dan Szymborski: WHY DID YOU GUYS HIRE ME DURING DAY 1 OF THE WINTER MEETINGS, THIS WOULD MAKE MORE SENSE LAST WEEK, ILL BE THERE IN A FEW HOURS I NEED TO CALL HERTZ

Jeff: Is Zobrist a good fit for the Mets? Wouldn’t they be better off with Desmond/Herrera than Flores/Zobrist?

Dan Szymborski: I would not sign Zobrist if I’m the Mets. Or, more practically, the Mets GM since it’s weird for a person to be a franchise.

Trainman: If the Mets miss on Zobrist, how would Dilson Herrera project as a Murphy replacement?

Dan Szymborski: Well.

Julio Pepper: How did Hisashi Iwakuma just get half as much money as Jeff Samardzija? Does ZIPs agree with Steamer that Iwakuma is a better pitcher right now? Why is he always criminally undervalued?

Guest: If the d’ backsgot Fernandez would that put them atop the west?

Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I keep posting comments as URLs and they get thrown away

Dan Szymborski: Because I’m used to ctrl-enter for CiL

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes Shark better overall, Iwakuma on a per-inning basis

Dan Szymborski: Say what you will about Shark, but he has good attendance, which does matter for a pitcher!

Guest: Will Jesus Montero start for the M’s at @ 1st?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect he does not.

Guest: Would this week be the highest traffic week for mlbtr?

Dan Szymborski: How woudl I know?

Ernie Camacho: How does ZiPS deal with handedness and platoon usage for batters? Does it essentially project performance against LHP and RHP separately and then project the platoon use? Take Ryan Raburn for example: how should we interpret his projection?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS assumes past usage of platoon splits. I project platoon splits separately in the final posted spreadsheet

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has no mechanism for predicting future platoon usage and I’m not sure if I can even make such a thing

Neil Huntington: Should the D-Backs have interest in a guy like Neil Walker? It’s an upgrade by a lot over whoever they run out there to play 2nd.

Dan Szymborski: If they’re going win now, they need to do stuff to win now.

Dan Szymborski: As the mariners can tell them, you can’t just sign the best player available and call it a day.

Johnny5Alive: Thoughts on the A’s and Madson? Seems like a very un-A’s thing to do?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan. Yeah, they may be able to flip him, but Madson’s risky and that’s a lot to gamble on a poossible flip

Jake: A few months ago, ESPN called the Phillies, Twins, Rockies, Reds, Braves, Marlins, D-Backs and Tigers the least analytically-inclined teams in baseball. All of these guys have either been in the cellar or gotten a new GM in the last few months; is it harder to dump overpaid vets through trades a la Matt Kemp, seeing as how there’s a relative absence of ‘idiot buyers’?

Dan Szymborski: It’ll likely continue to get tougher, but GMs also aren’t in overlords in charge of everything these days, either. When owners get involved, funny things can happen

Dakota McKee: What date are teams allowed to start negotiating with position player free agents?

Dan Szymborski: Several days after the World Series ends.

Dan Szymborski: (Starring the off-topic ones for the Lightning Round)

Brian Cashman: Am I making any moves to trade away Gardner and sign Heyward? Or Howie Kendrick?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t know what they’re doing.

Chorume: The Cardinals are projected – at the moment – for a 3rd place finish in NL Center. How much do they need a FA pitcher? Is it time to worry or just a matter of getting WAR anyway you can (Heyward and a 1B)?

Dan Szymborski: The Cardinals are a measured team and don’t generally make gigantic splashes. I wouldn’t definitely put them at 3rd (but I likely would) – I think all 3 teams are fairly close.

Mike S.: With the massive surplus of minor league pitching the Braves have accumulated, do you see them sending MiLB depth with marginal MLB assets to improve the starting 9? If so, who might they target?

Dan Szymborski: I do not.

GN: With the lack of quality 2B options around MLB are the Red Sox losing value by playing him in CF?

Dan Szymborski: I assume we’re talking Betts. I dont’ think they’re losing value – CF is a crucial position as well and Betts has shown so far that he can be a pretty darn good one.

Calbear949: What is your best FA bargain signing this year? Worst?

Dan Szymborski: So far: Iwakuma, Pelfrey

JV: Would you rather have Gray and Samardizja OR Bumgarner next year?

Dan Szymborski: The former.

TommyLasordid: Dodgers keep both Chapman and Jensen, or does one get flipped in the near future? I like the idea of keeping both, but do you get full value?

Dan Szymborski: They can get nearly as much value in the 8th as 9th. Saves are just an accounting fiction.

Curtis: Chris Davis in Colorado pleases me…and I’m not a Rockies fan…What do you think?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, he’d hit a gazillion homers in Coors. And the team would win 75 games.

Lawrence: Do you think having 2 elite closers will be a goal of more teams this winter?

Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah, but it’s a hard goal to achieve with the obvious elite closers that were on the market now being off the market

Owen S.: Career IP/ Career K-BB%/ Steamer 2016 projection Jansen: 340/ 31.4/ 25.7 Betances: 180.2/ 28.8 /25.6 That is some insane and inexplicable regression for Jansen. Especially considering he’s never posted a sub 30.6 K-BB% except for his 27 IP in 2010. He is so freaking dominant and I’m not sure why he’s not widely accepted as the #2 best reliever in all of baseball, by the community and by Steamer? All you hear is Davis, Betances, Miller, and Kimbrel when it comes to #2s. PS i loveyou. #endrant

Dan Szymborski: I don’t run Steamer, so I don’t have any particular insight into the whys and whatfors.

Sirras: ZiPS is WRONG about a player I like and I’m mad at you for your system having outputs based on inputs that don’t agree with me! BLAHBLAHBLAHMADBLAHANGERBLAHISHOULDBERIGHTBLAH! (I’m sorry that you get a lot of this because your projections are quite nice to have, so thank you for sharing!)

Dave: Did Kang’s success last year change the equation a bit as far as translating Korean players to MLB? I seem to recall that Kang did not get a very good ZIPS projection in 2015.

Dan Szymborski: He got a decent ZiPS, though nowhere near what he did in MLB.

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think teams are going high-hog – you can’t just assume that KBO is stronger than we though, simply because the sample size is tiny and there’s no guarantee that he didn’t just have a really good year

Dan Szymborski: People made this same mistake with Jose Abreu, assuming that his first year was the new baseline for expectations and wiped away the uncertainty.

Curtis: How does Chapman and Jansen work in LA? Like Papelbon and Storen in DC?

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully with less choking

Eric: Hey Dan, this is Eric, creator of the new confusing chat software you are currently using. If you have any questions or trouble, feel free to shoot me an email to eric.perchuk@gmail.com and I’ll help you out ASAP

Dan Szymborski: Crap

Dan Szymborski: Uhh, how do I remove that?

Dan Szymborski: (I’m not actually confused, I just like to cause trouble)

Brian: If Brantley really is out till August, are the Indians more likely to pull the trigger on a Carrasco/Salazar deal?

Dan Szymborski: I think not. Losing Carrasco/Salazar makes it a lot less necessary to replace Brantley

Jason: Soo who closes in LA now, do you think? Think it’s still Chapman?

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea how this sorts out.

Habichuela: What do the Mariners do at first base?

Dan Szymborski: Bring in a mediocre DH and pray, most likely

Meowmix: What 2nd tier starter do you like the best? Iwakuma, Kazmir, Lackey, Samardzija, etc.

Dan Szymborski: Lackey

Guest: Whose your favorite pitcher and hitter since you’ve been alive?

Dan Szymborski: Mussina, Will Clark

Larry Bernandez: Kyle Schwarber is sort of an Adam Dunn

The Dude: Do you like the Dodgers plan of going after multiple mid-tier arms rather than a front-of-the-line rotation ace?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s *a* plan, not necessarily a product of a conscious decision to not go after an ace. They tried to keep Greinke

Cecil45: Thoughts on Al Avila as GM so far.

Dan Szymborski: Meh. Nothing super-horrible, nothing that creative or interesting.

Tom: Is 15m a year as insane for Kuma? 39th highest SP contract in history (according to Cot’s) for a guy who will be 37 when the deal ends

Dan Szymborski: Age doesn’t really matter for a pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers don’t have aging curves like hitters do.

Dan Szymborski: They’re mostly OK until their arm goes at 22 or 32 or 42.

Dan Szymborski: It’s only when you get to 39, 40 that you start to see *real* aging for pitchers.

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers are more generic arm risk.

Dan Szymborski: Than specific age risk

Owen S.: Let’s say your team is “given” 40 WAR, and you are allowed to allocate that WAR, and how each player accumulates his allocated WAR (eg. defense or offense), however you please. Is there an optimal way in which one should distribute said WAR? I’m thinking that, given the non-linear value of offense, devoting all WAR to position players, and having them accumulate that WAR almost entirely by means of offense, is the best strategy.

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the organization, honestly. I dont’ like hard-and-fast rules because hard-and-fast rules don’t apply themselves well to specific situations

Dan Szymborski: And given how much revenue is at stake, I always want to do better than a hard-and-fast solution

Johnny5Alive: So the mets are already leaking out about how many of the players they should have been linked to are out of their price range. Despite all the extra revenue generated last season. When will MLB step in and get rid of the IWilpons like they did McCourt?

Dan Szymborski: I tend to think if MLB was inclined to push out the Wilpons, they already would have.

2-D: What do you think is the most important factor an MLB team looks for in minor league affiliates?

Dan Szymborski: Location, cooperation

Rick: How did Toscano’s ZiPS WAR projection end up better than Olivera’s?

Dan Szymborski: Because he’s young enough to have upside and played extremely well in Cuba at young ages.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like Olivera’s done much recently – his last season in which he played at an MLB level was 2011.

Happy Fun Ball: So we all know there’s a 0% chance the LADs go with a L/R closer tandem as games warrant. What’s your guestimate on how many games this will theoretically cost them?

Dan Szymborski: None. It’s not like righties crush Chapman.

Cochise: Why aren’t you in Nashville?

Dan Szymborski: Had a bunch of stuff to do at home and I’ve traveled a lot the last two weeks

Dan Szymborski: Will probably go next year.

Dan Szymborski: Really, if I’m there, it’s mostly for drinking and good times and I actually need less of both.

A: how do you read a chat?

Dan Szymborski: My eyes look at the symbols that are commonly used in English communication and my brain associates the patterns of the symbols with the speech that I have learned over my life.

Larry Bernandez: Jesus Montero will be 1st at the snack bar

The Dude: The Cubs offered Price a 7/161 contract. Why did they even bother giving him an offer?

Dan Szymborski: For the same reason people ask out way hotter people than themselves.

Derek: Does Cliff Lee fit for the Dodgers? They need pitching, it’s a very small gamble if it’s 1/10 like you said. Plus he’s a former Phillies, something the Dodgers like to do recently.

Dan Szymborski: I think Lee fits more on a team that can take more upside risk.

That guy: Dan, thoughts on the Tigers signing Pelfrey? Seems like they could’ve replicated his performance from within and used the $8M on something else (like a LHH OF)

Dan Szymborski: I did an exercise a few days ago in which I asked ZiPS what a win would have to be to make Pelfrey a break-even signing. ZiPS came up with something like $23 million.

Barney Stinson: If any team is interested in Walker, it would have to be the Blue Jays, right? Sure Travis looked good in the 4 games he was healthy for, but that’s a clear area of need for a contender.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Jays will go after a 2B given bigger needs.

Derek: What happened to Peter Bourjos? Is his glove still worth a starting spot in the OF?

Dan Szymborski: He aged and had a lot of injuries.

Todd: If you were G. Stanton, would any part of you regret signing that $300 million plus extension to stay with the Marlins? Do you think the Marlins will end up regretting it?

Dan Szymborski: I’d regret it somewhat, but hey, that’s a ton of money and my priorities may not be identical to Stanton’s.

Dan Szymborski: I have always — and likely always will — take less money for things so long as it allows me to retain my flexibility, like working from home.

Dan Szymborski: But different people value different things.

Everybody: Any chance at a random ZiPS projection that you haven’t released yet? Or some more FA signings?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but it’s usually on Twitter when I’m thinking of something.

Julio Pepper: Wait ZIPs thought Pelfry was a bargain? I thought I saw a tweet by you suggesting that his price implied a cost of 22m/WAR?

Dan Szymborski: That answer from before was best, worst

SF Dave: Hey! I just noticed Kevin Gausman!

Dan Szymborski: You’re still ahead of the O’s.

The Dude: At this point, should the Tigers just say screw it, and sign basically sign a FA for every hole the have? Cueto, Leake, Gordon, Fowler, Desmond, Chen, etc.?

Dan Szymborski: They should. The team is nearing the end of its rope and it needs to move the needle considerably.

Dan Szymborski: OK, that’s a weird mixed metaphor

Dan Szymborski: Let’s say Pelfrey doesn’t completely stink and Mark Lowe’s solid. That’s great. And makes them a couple games better than last year.

Carly`: Hi Dan. I’m curious to hear your thoughts about Jeter’s Player’s Tribune. Viable? Making any trouble for traditional sports media?

Dan Szymborski: While some of the stuff has been interesting, any time writers aren’t getting credit for their contributions, I avoid out of principle.

Dan Szymborski: Frankly, I’d be very happy if my editor and copyeditors got credit in my articles as well. It bugs me that the people that are valuable to my work don’t get any of the public share of credit.

Dan Szymborski: And I’m someone who writes clean copy without many changes. The Players Tribune editors are ghostwriting mainly.

The Cincinnati Kid: Re: .100 OBP player, wouldn’t there be value if player was THAT fast and was a SB specialist? I mean, if he could be guaranteed to steal 2nd, 3rd, and home, there would have to be value in that, right?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but if he was THAT fast, I’d expect him to reach first more often.

Dan Szymborski: Even Randy Johnson occasionally made contact

Gladson: Ken Rosenthal ?@Ken_Rosenthal 1m1 minute ago

Sources: #Mariners talking to #RedSox about trade for starting pitcher. Target is Buchholz or Miley, not clear.

Justin: Perhaps the Dodgers’ plan is “all pitchers break; therefore, we should have a lot of pitchers.”

976: All this Chapman talk has me flustered. Is there really value in a “closer” when a team could essentially produce similar results with a stronger overall (and probably cheaper) bullpen. A closer by committee? Say…3 setup men?

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers are a wealthy team – they’re paying for certainty here.

Larry: Ho could Tom Brady, whos an incredible athelete be so slow at 37 years old? Im not in the gym every day, I sit at a desk all day, same age and Im sure I could destroy him in a 30 yrd dash

Dan Szymborski: Some people are just slow.

Dan Szymborski: Even when I was younger and more athletic and played sports, I was never fast.

Dan Szymborski: For some reason I have a really long torso and really short legs.

Dan Szymborski: I’m 5’11 with a 28-inch inseam.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not actually a person of average height, I’m a freakishly tall little person.

Doug: how does the Papelbon mess end for the Nationals?

Dan Szymborski: Both sides have an interest in it working out, so I suspect they’ll muddle through

Dan Szymborski: One good thing about Dusty Baker is that his teams don’t usually try to kill each other.

Student: With this being finals week for many colleges across the nation, what are my chances of pulling a KC Royals and unexpectedly being successful?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know your basic educational stats.

James: Do you think Nashville ever gets a Major League franchise?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect not unless it grows a ton.

Guest: I dunno Dan, I think if a player was 1 second to first, even a .100 obp would have value… he’d essentially score 1/10 trips to the plate since he could steal 2nd, 3rd, and probably home.

Dan Szymborski: Would have to think more about this

mtsw: When it was signed Ubaldo Jimenez’s deal was considered one of the league’s worst. What kind of deal would he get as a free agent today though? Is his deal now a bargain?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a bargain, but I don’t think it’s anywhere near as bad as people thought before this season.

The Dude: About 7 years ago I saw 50s jazz pianist Dave Brubeck at a concert. He was in his 80s, and needed help getting to the piano. Once there, he played just as perfectly as he had 60 years earlier. I feel this is what it will be like when Bartolo Colon is the Opening Day SP in 2045.

Guest: How would cespede s fair at 1st

Dan Szymborski: Probably fine, but kind of a waste. He’s a really good corner outfielder (though not a centerfielder)

Guest: Everyone needs drinking and good times

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I do too much of that.

mtsw: Tempting to read leaked transaction rumors and figure out the intent behind them. E.G. are Orioles leaking trade interest in Christian Walker as a way to get his name out to the fanbase and make them more comfortable/excited when he starts at 1B after Chris Davis signs somewhere else?

Dan Szymborski: Sounds like the O’s as I can’t imagine many teams being all that interested in Christian Walker.

The Dude: Which Wade in MLB best exemplifies what it means to be named Wade?

Dan Szymborski: I do not have sufficient knowledge of what it is to be Wade.

SF Dave: There’s a problem with my computer! All I see is baseball questions and answers.

Dan Szymborski: Hey, we mostly stay on topic until the LIghtning ROund.

Guest: Would cliff Lee be a solid reliever?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if he would come back just to pitch iin relief

mtsw: Stanton’s contract has an opt-out midway through if playing in Miami ends up bumming him out.

The Dude: BREAKING: Trevor Cahill becomes first FA to sign during the Szymborski Chat Hour!

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, 1/4.25. Reasonable. 4.25 is nothing in 2016.

SF Dave: No one wants to hear about your short “inseam”

Dan Szymborski: Inseam measurement has nothing to do with the penis.

976: Wow. Do you have short arms too?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’m like a T-Rex.

Julio Pepper: The “not getting credit” is just a different part of the compensation package, like how you like working from home. Presumably they’re getting paid more in wages since they’re not getting paid in recognition, or perhaps they’re the sort of writers who don’t care very much about recognition in the first place. Ghost writing is a thing because they’re are people who are willing to be ghost writers.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, people take those jobs. But it still bugs me.

Beaucoup Bucks: Without even knowing you, I’m pretty confident you would lose a race to Tom Brady.

Dan Szymborski: Hey, if you gave me some time to get back in shape, I could put up a fight.

SF Dave: What if a player was super slow, but got on base at a.700 clip? They would get forced out more often on the bases (even from line drives to the OF) and completely negate the speed of anyone after them on extra base hits and such…

The Cincinnati Kid: What if his bat was basically a wet spaghetti noodle, but he could run like lightning. I mean absolute 0 .OBP, but you can’t get him out. That’s essentially 162 runs a season by using a pinch hitter to get him a turn on base.

Dan Szymborski: You guys give me crazy scenarios to figure out in 15 seconds

976: Is Zobrist’s decline in ZiPS defense related to aging or just a reaction to last season? Can I expect this decline to continue? And if so, who is going to bite on 4 years?

Dan Szymborski: Both.

Brandon: Update on all cats pls

Dan Szymborski: I see two cats right now. Reagan the Tortie is sitting on my lap with her head in the back of my left hand. Pandora the Calico is sleeping on Galileo the Gray Cat’s heating pad, likely until Galileo comes to sit on it.

Guest: Who is the fastest guy in the mlb and would he be faster than the fastest NFL guy?

Dan Szymborski: Gore? He’s claimed to run a 4.20 I believe. Though he’d have to run it to make sure. I guess Dri Archer is the fastest?

Tom Brady: I don’t need to run very fast… because I’m better than all of you at quick decision making and throwing a football. Still, let’s not pretend any of you are getting anywhere too fast by foot!

Sean: Have you ever done a chat naked?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: OK, 1 o clock, let’s get the Lightning Round going.

Dan Szymborski: The rules for the Lightning Round are simple. I must answer every question that is posed until I call time, just so long as it’s off-topic. There are the usual exceptions (too personal, work-related).

Guest: You play fallout 4 yet?

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

The Dude: Will Half Life 3 ever come out?

Dan Szymborski: Of course not.,

Android-8: Lightning round: Who is your wireless provider?

Dan Szymborski: T-Mobile

Guest: how is it fair for paladin arena decks to have muster for battle, murloc knight, truesilver champion, and consecration at the same time?

Dan Szymborski: Paladin’s a very strong class now in both arena and constructed, but I think Rogue and Mage are better in arena.

Larry Bernandez: Would you rather die of hypothermia or heat exhaustion?

Dan Szymborski: Hypothermia, I think.

mtsw: Is 2016 the year everyone gets a VR headset?

Dan Szymborski: Too soon.

anon: Lightning: Should Americans be more afraid of ISIS or NRA?

Dan Szymborski: Neither.

anon: Lightning: Congress voted down a law banning gun sales to people on the terrorist watch list. NRA said it would infringe on gun rights, and there are errors. What is wrong with this situation?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a danger once you start taking rights away for people being *suspected* of things. If you actually suspect people of things, the proper thing to do is investigate.

The Dude: Hey Dan, have you ever read the book, “Thank God for the Atom Bomb”? Really fascinating essays by historian Paul Fussell.

Dan Szymborski: I have not. I will note.

Guest: As a libertarian, would your *ideal* society be no government at all? I asked a libertarian this and he suggested that govt should protect property rights and that’s it. But I mean, shouldn’t SOMEONE be responsible for making sure we’re not eating Soylent Green or whatever?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a minarchist, not an anarchist, and I’m a gradualist, not a revolutionary.

Uther: Do you recommend Naxxramus and/or Blackrock Mountain? I have been playing Hearthstone for about 4 months now and could see some value in a couple of the cards in the current meta.

Dan Szymborski: Naxxramus. Many of the cards are still crucial in many deck lists.

Dan Szymborski: Haunted Creeper, Mad Scientist, Zombie Chow, Sludge Belcher, and Loatheb are all found in many, many deck lists

Dan Szymborski: And Spectral Knight, Unstable Ghoul, Deathlord, Nerubian Egg, Shade of Naxxramas, Kel-Thuzad have all seen a lot of situational play

Dan Szymborski: There really are only a few cards you don’t see in constructed – Dancing Swords, Nerub’ar Weblord, Stoneskin Gargoyle, post-nerf Undertaker, Wailing Soul, Maexxna.

Sean: A new study shows that if domestic housecats were larger, they would kill their human hosts. Do you believe that?

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely.

Phillies113: Why have you never done a chat naked

Dan Szymborski: Never saw a need.

Bork: I hope the most mediocre player signs a mediocre contract on a mediocre team during the Dan Szymborski mediocre hour.

bob: coke or pepsi

Dan Szymborski: Coke

garth: would you rather watch demolition man or double team?

Dan Szymborski: Demolition Man. The Taco Bell jokes make me laugh.

Chad: Have you ever played DOTA?

Dan Szymborski: Not the original. Dota2

Dan Szymborski: And no, Lightning, “When?” “Where?” and the like do not count as answerable questions.

i need a car: subaru forrester or toyota rav4

Dan Szymborski: Probably the Firester

Mookie Betts: I’m bowling the World Series of Bowling. How will I finish? What will my average be?

Dan Szymborski: I would think you’d do quite well – you were a bowler in high school and have 300 games

TommyLasordid: brandy or rum in your eggnog?

Dan Szymborski: I generally prefer rum, but in eggnog, gotta be brandy

Bork: Soylent Green was a great plan that was badly implemented.

Bernie Sanders: Are you feeling the Bern?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Nelson: Ever eat a latke?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Donald Trump: How much do you like me?

Dan Szymborski: Not at all.

Guest: Would Putin win a hypothetical world leader brawlledge?

Dan Szymborski: Probably pretty well. World leaders are an old and doughy sort.

Beer: Favorite winter time beer?

Dan Szymborski: Great Lakes Christmas Ale.

Chad: Have you ever played DOTA 2? review?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. It’s a good game, but I can’t really do a review in 10 seconds

The Dude: Math question: We’re splitting a check. You want to give 20% tip, I want to give a 9% tip. You spent $30, I spent $23. We’re on a train traveling 50 mph. You sell me four apples. WHERE THE HELL ARE MY APPLES?

Dan Szymborski: We gave them to four doctors to keep them away and we took their table. The doctors have the apples.

The Dude: Are you more excited to play Half Life 3 or Portal 3?

Dan Szymborski: Portal

adam: are you trusting a healthy productive season from Rendon in 2016. What are the chances the power comes back like in the 25 range?

Dan Szymborski: Solid.

Dan Szymborski: DOH, ANSWERED ON TOPIC Q IN THE LIGHTNING ROUND

TommyLasordid: Which sucks most: diet or exercise?

Dan Szymborski: Exercise I think. I don’t actually have a bad diet.

Dan Szymborski: I last had pizza like in August and last ate fast food in September.

MMC: Vote for Superhero movies: http://www.mediocremovie.club/games/shanes-superhero-showdown-semifinals

Bork: Do you know how to use the shells?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Dan Szymborski: OH yeah, demolition man

Dan Szymborski: I do not. I am not from that time period

The Dude: Favorite web-comic?

Dan Szymborski: Hark, A Vagrant!

garth: do you know how to use the 3 seashells?

Dan Szymborski: I ddo not.

BobbyS: Are you into the Marvel Universe? Have you watched Daredevil and Jessica Jones?

Dan Szymborski: Sort of. I dont’ live and die by it. They are on list for me to watch.

bruce w.: what does “never rub another mans rhubarb” mean?

Dan Szymborski: I think genitals are involved. Or rhubarbs.

Phil: I’ve never seen Back to the Future and all of my friends tease me about it. Could I watch and appreciate it in 2015 or is it just their nostalgia talking?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, they were fun movies.

Nelson: Justin Trudeau has won an actual boxing match, hed be our best hope against Putin

Carly`: what would your last meal be, ideally?

Dan Szymborski: A bottle of wine from 2238.

That guy: Robert Nosick or bust?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, he was practical.

2-D: Best decade for music?

Dan Szymborski: 1990s and 1820s.

bruce w.: rank the jurassic park movies based on WAR

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen them all

Bork: Jays are going to sign Sipp, RIGHT DAN??

Dan Szymborski: I do not know.

Nelson: Best 15$ gift I can give to my 8-10 employees?

Dan Szymborski: Flash drive? Cash?

Dan Szymborski: Beer?

Great Lakes Brewing: Did you see, we had to pull our Barrel aged Winter Ale? 🙁 People didn’t like the oops sourness!

Dan Szymborski: I did not!

jtt: It is technically FG related but how much do you hate Cistulli on a 1-10 scale?

Dan Szymborski: At the end of the world, Carson and I will fight the final battle.

Antonio Bastardo: Why have I not changed my name yet?

Dan Szymborski: Why would you?

Derek: Is America becoming worse or better as a global dominate country? If you had to emigrate to a different country and you got to choose any country in the world, where would you go?

Dan Szymborski: I should ping you for dominate.

Dan Szymborski: The US is fine.

Dan Szymborski: Would probably move to Germany – most of my living relatives are German and I have citizenship.

That Guy: T or F, some people left of center understand baseball

Dan Szymborski: T

Derek: Is alcohol the cause or solution to all of life’s problems?

Dan Szymborski: Both.

Bork: Office worker here. Do not give them flash drives. Hear me? DO NOT GIVE THEM FLASH DRIVES.

Dan Szymborski: I like flash drives!

Uther: What is your highest ranked season in Hearthstone? What class did you primarily use?

Dan Szymborski: 4, warlock. I never grind out enough time.

Dan Szymborski: Playing constructed tends to bore me after awhile.

The Dude: At the end of the world battle between you and Cistulli, who would represent good, and who would represent evil?

Dan Szymborski: Depends who wins and writes the stories that the next universe takes for religion.

Guest: You should consider a videogame review blog

Dan Szymborski: There’s stuff happening.

Bork: Szymborski is weird. DO NOT GIVE THEM FLASH DRIVES. Give them gift cards to coffee shops or pre-payed visa’s.

Dan Szymborski: I like flash drives!

Socrates Brito: Why hasn’t anyone else changed their name to mine yet?

Dan Szymborski: None have been worthy.

Derek: Wait, what’s wrong with dominate?

Dan Szymborski: Globally dominant!

The Dude: Thoughts on Episode VII?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen it. Will.

Dan Szymborski: Lucas not writing it makes me optimistic.

Northsider: I think you are mixing up flash drives with flashing drivers

Bork: You should do a videogame blog and make a ZiPS for gaming companies.

Dan Szymborski: Anything I would do is most likely media-based.

The Dude: https://xkcd.com/691/

Dan Szymborski: I love flash drives!

Dan Szymborski: One of my ZiPS backups is in an encrypted flash drive hidden in a state park.

Guest: Do you know any details on schillings videogame company and what games they were making?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have any information that the public does not have. They were making RPG obviously

Derek: Meh, you understood what I meant by dominate. Speaking of which, what’s your strategy in Risk? I like loading up in Australia and then branching out from there.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like the Australia strategy – it’s not tactically aggressive.

Dan Szymborski: I like America. More dynamic positions.

The Dude: Which state park?

Dan Szymborski: Somewhere along I-70

Guest: Favorite Xmas beer? Will they be called holiday beers in the ear future

Dan Szymborski: No different than winter.

The Dude: T or F: Curt Schilling’s video game company was secretly making robotic-soldiers?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not.

Rick: Unnamed player was granted MLB’s approval to use banned substance to treat man boobs

Risk: Australia use to be the big play, until they wised up and gave it more than one connection!

Derek: Which America? You know there’s two of them right?

Dan Szymborski: North

JayT: If you only have $15 per person to spend, throw a holiday party in the office with a bunch of booze.

EC: Would Scherzer get a Grienke contract as a FA this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Bork: Is your strategy to give flash drives and bore the other people to giving up on life and losing?

Dan Szymborski: I like flash drives!

Dan Szymborski: ENDN

Dan Szymborski: END

Dan Szymborski: LIGHTNING OVER

Dan Szymborski: DO NOT ASK ANY MORE QUESTION AS THERE ARE NO FURTHER COMMUNIQUES

(: Americas are the superior strategy. Two continents, 3 chokepoints. Not a question.

Bork: It’s not over until we all get flash drives.

The Dude: My strategy for Risk is Eastern USA. I act like a pacifist, wait for UN meeting, then kidnap all of worlds leaders.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everybody!

Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: And you should because I like to pay bills and if nobody reads me I’m sad and I hvae to eat my cats.