Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/6/14
| 11:59 |
: And here we are, the final Szym chat until Autordämmerung continues with the Hall of Fame announcement on Wednesday.
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| 11:59 |
: And 2nd to last chat until I’m forced to switch to the new Cover it Live interface with more stuff.
|
| 12:00 |
Between the time when the oceans drank The Expos and the rise of the sons of Amaro, there was an age undreamed of. And unto this, Dan Szymborski, destined to wear the jeweled crown of Severnaya upon a troubled brow. It is I, his chronicler, who alone can tell thee of his saga. Let me tell you of the days of high conjectture! |
| 12:00 |
PEANUT BUTTER JELLLLLLLLLLLY TIME |
| 12:00 |
Who’s the jackass who’s not going to put Maddux on their ballot? |
| 12:00 |
: Probably Chass.
|
| 12:00 |
: Because he didn’t know how to use a fax machine and they just got a blank page from him and assumed he was just being a jackass.
|
| 12:01 |
: Don’t know if it makes the final cut, but on a podcast I did that airs tomorrow (Leitch) I do a bad imitation of Murray Chass angered that the robot is eating his ballot.
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| 12:01 |
As an occasional poster on VEB, what are your general thoughts on the changes? |
| 12:02 |
: Dropping Dan Moore was stupid. Hopefully it isn’t a bad omen of SEOtimization being emphasized.
|
| 12:02 |
: My initial encounter with the new guy there did not go well (I posted in the thread afew minutes ago about it since people asked)
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| 12:02 |
Of Rodney, Balfour, Janssen, and C Allen, which (if any) do you see getting more than 30 saves in 2014? Thanks |
| 12:03 |
: Janssen’s the safest – he’s on a team and officially has the job.
|
| 12:03 |
This will be the most interesting HoF vote yet, right? |
| 12:03 |
: In the interesting time vein!
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| 12:03 |
Is it easier to amend the Constitution or change the voting system for the HOF? |
| 12:04 |
: Constitution? It’s easier to amend THE PHYSICAL LAWS OF THE UNIVERSE than the get the HoF to acknowledge changes need to be made.
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| 12:05 |
: You know that acceleration due to gravity on earth of -9.8 m/s/s? I think you’d have better luck changing that than a process that ensures that voters are qualifeid to be making judgments.
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| 12:05 |
This is the first time I’ve been awake for Szymborski chat in a month so this better be good. |
| 12:05 |
: Last week was the first in a while that someone didn’t say that it was the worst chat ever, so we’ve at least reached a plateau of terribliciousness.
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| 12:05 |
If the current projected HOF results stand (Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Biggio all IN…Morris OUT….Bagwell, Piazza not quote yet…..is the process actually sorta WORKING this year? |
| 12:07 |
: Problem is, you need 4 to get in just to leave the mess the *sam* – Randy/Pedro/Smoltz/Sheffield join next year and Nomar should at least be *discussed* based on peak.
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| 12:07 |
: It’s like when you have a 500 page book to do a report on. You figure, OK, I can read 50 pages a day and leave myself a week to do analyze and write the paper.
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| 12:08 |
: Now, it’s 4 days before the report is due. You haven’t even started. At that point, you can’t say “OK, I read 50 pages today, so the process is working”
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| 12:08 |
The sexy cartoon girls have been replaced with an AARP ad. Damn complainers. |
| 12:08 |
: I sent in an artist’s rendition of me in a bikini. Sexy cartoon girls is no longer a thing.
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| 12:09 |
I love it when you write german, greetz from Germany! |
| 12:09 |
: My German is fractured – I can read it better than I can write it and write it better than I can speak it.
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| 12:09 |
It seems today, that all you see, is violence in movies and Dan Syzmborski. |
| 12:10 |
: EVEN THE SONG WRITTEN ABOUT ME DOESNT HAVE MY NAME RIGHT!
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| 12:10 |
If you’re running the O’s, is Kendrys Morales worth giving up a 1st round pick? (assuming a reasonable contract) |
| 12:10 |
: A reasonable contract, yes. Probably not one he would sign.
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| 12:11 |
Do you like the idea of Jeremy Jeffress as a starter? Think his SSS stats with his sinker are impressive? |
| 12:11 |
: It’s worth a try. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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| 12:11 |
: A team that’s not taking calculated risks better be one that’s already winning 100 games because that’s the route to improving and getting performance where there wasn’t any before.
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| 12:11 |
What does the Nationals infield look like after 2014? The prevailing wisdom seems to be Zimmerman at first, Rendon at third, ??? at second. But it’s also at least in theory possible that Zimmerman learns to throw, and they need a 1B. Or they move Zimmerman but keep Rendon at 2B anyway, so they need a 3B. A lot of moving parts there. |
| 12:12 |
: Honestly, it’s hard to say until we see his arm all year.
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| 12:12 |
: Zimmerman that is.
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| 12:12 |
Junior Lake, Adam Eaton, and Leonys Martin all seem like similar players to me (experience, 5 x 5 numbers, etc.) – how would you rank them for 2014 and which one do you prefer? |
| 12:13 |
: They’re probably similar tier. Eaton’s hurt a little because I don’t think he has the ideal skill set to make the most of the Cell.
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| 12:13 |
Hello, Dan. I’m wondering if you have any thoughts on the upcoming Hall of Fame announcement. |
| 12:14 |
: Hall of Fame? Wuzzat? Is there an exhibit somewhere of the people from Fame? Nia Peeples is still hot.
|
| 12:14 |
What’s Mulder’s ZIPS projection? Anywhere near average? |
| 12:14 |
: I haven’t done it and to be perfectly honest, I’m not even sure how to approach this.
|
| 12:14 |
Thomas and Biggio make the HOF? What discount should we apply to the ballot collecting thingy? |
| 12:15 |
: Late ballots tend to be dumber ones, so knock some small percentage off the deserving and give it to the marginal (Mattingly, Smith) or worse (imagine who I’m talkinga bout)
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| 12:15 |
Assuming the same price tag, who is the better fit for the Jays? Ubaldo or Santana? |
| 12:15 |
: Ubaldo. If you’re going to overpay, Ubaldo has more upside, I feel.
|
| 12:16 |
6×5 (add OBP) OF3 for 2014: Cespedes or Cuddyer? |
| 12:16 |
: I’m not a fan of Cuddyer in real life, but since you get Coors with him in fantasy, gotta go with him.
|
| 12:16 |
Do you understand any of Charlie Sheen’s tweets? |
| 12:17 |
: Don’t follow him.
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| 12:17 |
Which scenario is more likely? |
| 12:18 |
: Which is stuck with a case of prospect’s disease – I Don’t Care is a much better shortstop but he doesn’t really have the bat to displace What or I Don’t Know. Probably a 5th infield.
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| 12:18 |
If I felt like there were 11 candidates(including Maddux), I wouldn’t vote for Maddux because I know he is already getting in. |
| 12:18 |
: That’s my strategy. It’s annoyed at least several people.
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| 12:18 |
Papa Szymbo versus “Classy” Murray Chassy for the World Heavyweight Championship live on PPV! |
| 12:19 |
: I better win, I’m heavier than him and he’s got like 130 years on me.
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| 12:19 |
Jays more likely to get Santana or Jimenez? Who would be better? |
| 12:19 |
: Hopefully Ubaldo. Santana’s too lottery tickety for a contender.
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| 12:20 |
: Santana return to Minnesota really a terrific fit if both parties are willing. The Twins are in Sweet Jesus, Why Do We Keep Developing Guys Who Pitch Like Nick Blackburn Let’s Sign Some Random Dudes mode.
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| 12:20 |
: But we’d have to abbreviate, that’s too longer for the Twins instruction manual.
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| 12:20 |
Which scenario is more likely? (1) A few get elected, but a number of worthy guys fall off. (2) No one gets elected, the world implodes? |
| 12:20 |
: 1
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| 12:20 |
oh jeez….forgot to post w/ the handle….we’ll have some very hard hitting questions from “guest” today |
| 12:21 |
: WAIT THATS NOT CHRISTOPHER GUEST? DAFUQ?
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| 12:21 |
Who’s better, me or Brandon Belt? |
| 12:21 |
: Belt by a nose. I like both of you.
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| 12:21 |
Will the Astros be relevant for anything other than terribility (terribleness? terriblitude? terrorbirds?) this year? |
| 12:21 |
: Terrible, but promising. You can see the shoots of adequacy growing there.
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| 12:22 |
: Super excited to see Springer.
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| 12:22 |
oh here we go taking potshots at someone’s entire being bc they grew up before FIP and fWAR were ever dreamed up. this is starting on the right foot. Weren’t Chass jokes funny like 5 yrs ago? |
| 12:22 |
: It isn’t about fWAR. It’s about Chass’s lack of journalistic ethics. The backne thing? Declaring Biggio guilty by association?
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| 12:22 |
What are the next 5 zips due up for those of us who are junkies. |
| 12:23 |
: Reds and Mets this week. To find past that, you’ll need detective work.
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| 12:23 |
ZIPS has a pretty nice projection for Addison Reed. Are you concerned about his > 2 MPH velo loss? |
| 12:23 |
: Yes, but I’m concerned about every pitcher all the time.
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| 12:24 |
Who is the best defensive 2B not named Darwin Barney? |
| 12:24 |
: Pedroia?
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| 12:24 |
2 GS? I’m logging 200 IP this year! |
| 12:24 |
over/under 100PA for Grady Sizemore in 2014? |
| 12:24 |
: 100 (since choices below 0 would be wasted)
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| 12:24 |
Do you feel good about the future of the hall if those top 4 guys (Biggio, Maddux, Glavine, Big Hurt) get elected? |
| 12:25 |
: I’d feel less momentary panic. To actually feel good, you’d need those 4, Bagwell, Piazza, and Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina all above 50%.
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| 12:25 |
Would Murray Chass be more interesting if he just went full-heel and started wearing a Jack Morris jersey and burning HOF ballot? |
| 12:25 |
: At least he’s committed.
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| 12:25 |
Of all the projections released so far on this site, the Trumbo one in AZ is salient for me. ZiPS sees his ISO jumping 26 points above his career line and the AVG going up 19 points, giving him a .354 wOBA in 2014 compared to a career .329. What say you? |
| 12:25 |
: wOBA isn’t park-adjusted.
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| 12:26 |
: He’s going to an easier HR park (from a fairly tough one) in an easier league.
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| 12:26 |
Since Oakland is so far out you have any idea on Michael Taylors OPS+? He had an interesting AAA season but didn’t fair to well in the majors. |
| 12:26 |
: I do!
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| 12:26 |
Think the Yankees assumed interest in Tanaka is greater than their real interest? I mean, if the M’s attempt a take out bid of 6/120M, do you still think it’ll become a bidding war? The Yankees don’t seem as profligate as past yrs. |
| 12:26 |
: I don’t know *what* the Yankees are doing. I don’t think even they know.
|
| 12:26 |
Sons of Abraham DLC to CK2: Good enough to purchase at full price, or should I wait for the inevitable discount? |
| 12:26 |
: I’d probably wait for the discount, it’s not *that* big a change.
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| 12:28 |
: Not enough Pope manuevers or enough practical use of being Jewish to be that urgent a DLC.
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| 12:28 |
Damn college students…get a job! Then you won’t miss a chat. |
| 12:28 |
Has anyone cared about using a median in baseball? Everyone is all hung up on averages |
| 12:28 |
: You don’t see much in in medians in baseball.
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| 12:28 |
If you could change just ONE aspect of HOF voting would it be A. eliminate the 10 player limit or B. Eliminate the 5% to stay on the ballot threshold (any player retired for 5+ years not already in can be voted for). |
| 12:28 |
: A
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| 12:28 |
I’m surrounded by nearly a foot of snow… you’re just gonna have to make this chat last a day or two longer than usual… |
| 12:29 |
: Start digging!
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| 12:29 |
: After chat. For now you can stay.
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| 12:30 |
: Given the temperatures, if you don’t get that taken care of, it’s going to be like trying to smash through plate armor with a nerf bat.
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| 12:30 |
: That hasn’t been tried since Agincourt.
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| 12:30 |
Any process that gives more HOF consideration to Jack Morris than Roger Clemens isn’t “working”. |
| 12:30 |
D.Dahl – worth a stash in dynasty leagues? Will he get back to playing baseball & end all the off field drama? |
| 12:31 |
: Certainly worth a stash if you have the room.
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| 12:31 |
Neither Aaron Hicks nor Jake Marisnick are listed as starters on his team’s MLB.com website depth chart. Are Hicks and Marisnick reasonable trade targets for the Seattle Mariners, who lack outfielders, specifically those of the defensive variety? |
| 12:32 |
: If they’re inexpensive, which they may not be.
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| 12:32 |
I’m getting ads for adoption now. At first they thought I would be turned on by cartoon girls, but have concluded that I’m just an impotent fool. How dare you mock me!! |
| 12:32 |
Since it’s the last year of Morris arguments, what is your favorite Morris argument? Mine is now the similarity score argument which I had never heard before this year. |
| 12:32 |
: The Winningest Pitcher of the Decade argument.
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| 12:33 |
: So was Paul Derringer. And Bucky Walters. And Frank Viola.
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| 12:33 |
: If you have a list of Freak Trivia achievements, the guys at the bottom are going to be lousy example of excellence. As is Jack Morris.
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| 12:34 |
: To catch Jack Morris’s IP and ERA+, Kevin Appier would need 1228 2/3 IP of 6.23 ERA baseball. Does anyone think that performance would make Appier a better player?
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| 12:34 |
I was fascinated to read about how only ~6-7 players get put on the average HOF ballot recently….seems the 10 man limit isn’t really the problem…. |
| 12:35 |
: But there are some guys that want to vote for more that can’t. It’s not like it would make the guys voting 0 vote for -1 Hall of Famers.
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| 12:35 |
Its funny because I double checked to see if your name was spelled right and still spelled it wrong. |
| 12:35 |
what do u think Drew ultimately signs for? |
| 12:35 |
: 2/20 Mets. I think either Boras or possibly Drew himself overcalculated.
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| 12:36 |
Who signs for something reasonable first, Cruz or Morales? Who do you think ends up with them? |
| 12:36 |
: Cruz I think. Already reportedly toying with the notion of a 1-year deal.
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| 12:36 |
Why is Glavine pretty much a lock for the HoF, but Mussina is getting no love? Mussina was the better pitcher and pitched in a tougher league, albeit for a shorter time. Is this a case of voters falling in love with counting stats? |
| 12:36 |
: Yes. 3 is a bigger number than 2.
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| 12:36 |
Are the Cubs really a player on Tanaka? And if so, any possibility they sign him as well as resign shark bait? |
| 12:37 |
: I think they are, but I don’t think they keep Samardzija *and* Tanaka
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| 12:37 |
Did you ever have a chance to really get into EU4? If so, what are your thoughts? I recall reading some complaints about one of the more recent updates. |
| 12:37 |
: Not yet.
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| 12:37 |
Hey Dan, thanks for the chat. What do you think about Jon Singleton in the future? I see his projection is around 60 at bats this year. Is his comp a guy like Chris Carter, or do you buy that there’s more there? What kind of ceiling? |
| 12:37 |
: He’s still very young, I’m still cautiously optimistic about his upside. The Astros could use an extra Carter though as well,b ut I think he can be better.
|
| 12:37 |
What player, who fell off the Hall of Fame ballot after 1 year, would have been the cause celebre for the sabremetric community? |
| 12:38 |
: Not sure I understand – Ron Santo was one. he was actually one-and-doned but a review board put him and some other guys back on the ballot.
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| 12:39 |
Mike Petriello’s article on Mulder is kinda interesting… not that it helps with a projection! |
| 12:39 |
Any chance of seeing K.Bryant before 2015? And if not, does that mean Olt rediscovered his groove? |
| 12:39 |
: There’s no pressing need to rush Bryant.
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| 12:40 |
: Olt will get a chance, though his stock really dropped in 2013
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| 12:40 |
Do you support a parallel HOF based on statistical merit? |
| 12:41 |
: I prefer the main HoF to be based on merit. And excellence and statistical merit should go together, it’s dangerous to isolate them as different.
|
| 12:41 |
: Because let’s be honest, the character clause is something BBWAA voters suddenly discovered after 80 years
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| 12:41 |
I don’t know who you’re talking about? Probably Maddux, since I belong in before him. |
| 12:41 |
The Twins should sign Ervin Santana and Johan Santana and have the band Santana play after a game one night. It would be called Santanarama. As a bonus, they could play all Bananarama covers. |
| 12:41 |
He’s a well respected Dan about town, doing the best things so conservatively. |
| 12:41 |
: heh
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| 12:41 |
Is this the worst off season in O’s history? |
| 12:41 |
: Well, it didn’t have the Glenn Davis trade.
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| 12:41 |
Ugh, saw that don’t vote for Maddux in order to keep Jeff Kent on the ballot argument…..how has it come to this |
| 12:42 |
: As far as I’m concerned, it’s the fault of the BBWAA-induced logjam for making it come to that.
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| 12:42 |
: I’d vote Kent over Maddux for simple triage reasons.
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| 12:43 |
“If I felt like there were 11 candidates…” Hopefully a 175 or so people don’t all do this [or worse yet, 500-some-odd] 🙂 |
| 12:44 |
: Yeah, but the voters aren’t unknowns. 175 guys aren’t suddenly going to vote strategically after never having done so before
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| 12:44 |
I just had a Wild Cherry Diet Pepsi — this says that I am CRAZY, but in a responsible sort of way. |
| 12:44 |
Will Buster hit more than 20 HRs any season in the future, or is he a slightly lesser Joe Mauer, with the inevitable move to 1B included? |
| 12:44 |
: It’s tough as the environment for him to hit is terrible.
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| 12:44 |
I am not sure why anyone cares who is “in the hall”, other than the people and their friends……a lot of angst over something that is even less important than the actual games |
| 12:45 |
: I don’t see what’s wrong or trivial about giving the greatest players in baseball history a special, valued honor for their abilities.
|
| 12:45 |
Santana returning to MN? Huh? |
| 12:45 |
: *If* it happened. There have been hints.
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| 12:45 |
which “worthy” guys are going to fall off? I’m still pissed Will Clark only lasted 1 (!) ballot. |
| 12:45 |
: Given that the non-public ballots tend to be worse, I dont’ tink Walker, McGwire, Sosa, or Palmeiro are safe.
|
| 12:45 |
What % would you put on Kevin Goldstein eventually landing a GM job? |
| 12:46 |
: 1%. I think he’s one of the guys who *could* do the job, but I get the impression from him that he wouldn’t want a GM.
|
| 12:46 |
I agree with you that Ubaldo is the better fit for the Jays, but I’m surprised that you see Santana as more of a lottery ticket. What makes you feel that Ubaldo is a bit “safer”? |
| 12:46 |
: Ubaldo’s the one that has had the longest sustained run of excellence.
|
| 12:46 |
: Santana had a solid season, but he’s just a year away from being a tee-ball.
|
| 12:46 |
What is the baseball equivalent of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame putting KISS in before Deep Purple and The Zombies? |
| 12:47 |
: I said it before, putting Morris in is like putting in *The Bay City Rollers* first.
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| 12:47 |
as if Chass were the only problem with the BBWAA… |
| 12:47 |
: But he’s the most mockable one, along with Caputo.
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| 12:47 |
Do we still get to discuss non-baseball topics here like we did months ago? |
| 12:47 |
: It’s my chat, so of course.
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| 12:48 |
2014 only: Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty, or Jemile Weeks? |
| 12:48 |
: Ouch, I hope this is a fantasy decision you dont’ have to make. Flaherty has the clearest path.
|
| 12:48 |
Fangraphs should not be allowed to have banner ads for animated bikini chicks from 9-5. Don’t you guys know I have to work? |
| 12:48 |
: What kind of horrible puritanical workplace are you at?
|
| 12:48 |
Instead of forever lamenting the HOF, when will you guys team with other smart baseball analysts/writers/etc. to form an alternative HOF? Like, “HOF+”? |
| 12:49 |
: Cooperstown is pretty cool – I’d like to make that HoF better.
|
| 12:49 |
Is Billy Butler due to fall off a cliff soon? |
| 12:49 |
: Nah, he’s got a plateau for awhile
|
| 12:49 |
Word is that the Red Sox have interest in Denorfia. With Headley likely gone after 2014, would it make sense for the Padres to try and get Middlebrooks, and if so, what would they have to include beside Denorfia? |
| 12:50 |
: Honestly, I think the Red Sox want to hang onto Middlebrooks for 2014 at least
|
| 12:50 |
Can I stay, even if i start asking for Gamel’s ATL projection again?! |
| 12:50 |
: Heh, it’s on my to do list
|
| 12:50 |
What do you expect from Jose Abreu this year? I can’t find any projections for him since he’s only played in Cuba. |
| 12:50 |
: league averageish 1B
|
| 12:50 |
if just Bonds, Arod, and Clemens ended up being HOF snubbed due to the “steroid era” but the other deserving stars of the time eventually get in are we basically OK with that just like how we have come to terms with Pete Rose not being inducted at this point? |
| 12:50 |
: Well, for one, all 3 are better players than Rose.
|
| 12:51 |
: And Rose is permanently ineligible. Two of the three above didn’t even break an actual baseball rule.
|
| 12:51 |
Viola was good for a few yrs tho. |
| 12:52 |
: Yeah, but ain’t none of those guys been voting for Sweet Music when he was on the ballot
|
| 12:52 |
I tried pitching to the score….it turns out the scoreboard doesn’t stand close enough to home plate to make this approach viable. |
| 12:52 |
Derringer, Walters, Viola… what do you have against the Reds??? /kidding |
| 12:52 |
The only thing that could possibly make this chat better would be elevator music. |
| 12:53 |
: MILD ELECTRIC PIANO!!! hummmming Vibraphone! Bluesy saxophone, slightly too soft for you to give a shit. here comes the clarinet and a very light snare!
|
| 12:53 |
Bigger “win” by the sabr community? Morris not getting in, or Blyleven getting in? |
| 12:53 |
: Blyleven.
|
| 12:53 |
Not a HOF question and not really a question at all: moving Jason Heyward to leadoff seems like the move that might actualize the MVP-potential others have seen in him. |
| 12:53 |
: Would be fun.
|
| 12:53 |
Being suddenly backhandedly supportive of the HOF voting is the new market inefficiency 😉 |
| 12:54 |
why wouldn’t the Sox sign Drew for that (2/20) as Willsurance? |
| 12:54 |
: They might, but I suspect that turning down the qualifying offer only to return to the team and take a backup job might be kind of humiliating
|
| 12:54 |
If you had to pick a Marlins starting pitcher, other than Jose Fernandez, for a fantasy team, who would it be? |
| 12:55 |
: Alvarez?
|
| 12:55 |
What are Trout’s odds to end up in the HOF? Bonds? |
| 12:55 |
: Have some career projections for Trout going up today…
|
| 12:55 |
So HOF voting is based on percentage, correct? So what you have to do is make sure your ballot gets submitted while stopping every other sportswriter with a ballot from getting their own in, right? |
| 12:56 |
: Yeah. I think making it email only could knock off about 150 of them.
|
| 12:56 |
The inclusion of Morris in the HOF depends on how large you want the HOF to be. Every player can be ranked, so where do you draw the line of inclusion? |
| 12:56 |
: Fred McGriff and Tommy John is the border.
|
| 12:56 |
Was Mussina ever considered a top-5 SP? I recall a spell where Glavine was most definitely so, but not Moose. Pedro, Maddux, and Johnson, then Glavine, Schilling, and Smoltz, then you start thinking about Mussina… |
| 12:58 |
: He was top 5 in AL in ERA+ 7 or 8 times.
|
| 12:59 |
: He didn’t end up with more career bWAR than Glavine in fewer seasons and innings by being inferior to Glavine.
|
| 12:59 |
Rosenthal wrote about Yovani Gallardo as a potential trade candidate the other day. Is he a good bounce back candidate? |
| 12:59 |
: He’s worth hanging onto.
|
| 12:59 |
Isn’t Lou Whitaker the ultimate “fell off ballot after 1 year” travesty? |
| 12:59 |
: It’s pretty f’awful.
|
| 12:59 |
David Cone lasted all of one vote. absurd. |
| 12:59 |
Brandon Belt: top 5 NL first baseman? |
| 12:59 |
: Yes
|
| 12:59 |
I guess my question is, Blyleven and Raines have been rightly praised by the stats community to eventual deserved enshrinement. Would Whitaker or Lofton or another player have gotten the treatment if he stayed more than 1 year? |
| 12:59 |
: Probably, but you need a real concerted effort.
|
| 1:00 |
: Remember, Blyleven *started* with 15% of the vote, a number those others didn’t touch. And we haven’t succeeded with Raines yet
|
| 1:00 |
Justin Upton or Jason Heyward for fantasy purposes next year? |
| 1:00 |
: Upton fantasy, Heyward real lfie
|
| 1:00 |
I see Drew taking 13/1 before he takes 20/2. |
| 1:01 |
: But I can’t see a team offering it unless they’re insane. You don’t give up a worse pick signing a player for fewer years. Depending on whether you have a protected pick or not, that’s like paying Drew 1/20 or 1/25.
|
| 1:01 |
When is the giants projection? Are they a strong regression-contender candidate a la Angels? |
| 1:02 |
: Last.
|
| 1:02 |
You and Pos have made the Hall of Fame argument time one of my favorite times in baseball. |
| 1:03 |
If you could “Quantum Leap” into any HOF voter, who would it be, and what would you do? |
| 1:04 |
: Peter Gammons. When I was a kid and I realized that I wasn’t going to be a player, I wanted to be Bill James or Peter Gammons.
|
| 1:05 |
: I wouldn’t even do anything. I’d just bask in getting to be F’n! Peter Gammons for a day.
|
| 1:05 |
What’s a good read on the history of the Napoleonic Wars? |
| 1:05 |
: Blundering to Glory
|
| 1:06 |
What’s a good read on the history of the War of the Roses? |
| 1:06 |
: John Gillingham The Wars of the Roses
|
| 1:06 |
Dan, who do you think ends up with the better career, Puig or Myers? Who has the greater ceiling and floor? |
| 1:06 |
: Myers safer, Puig more variability
|
| 1:06 |
Please make an uncharacteristically specific prediction today. |
| 1:07 |
: I will eat 17 Arby’s Roast Beefs over the next years, 10 on those 5 for $5.99 sale. I will also have 7 French Dips.
|
| 1:07 |
I try to avoid unthinking arguments as much as possible for the sake of my sanity. But Hall of Fame season renders them virtually unavoidable. Just heard the one about Jack Morris pitching differently depending on the situation. I need a drink… |
| 1:07 |
: Tune in Wednesday, I’ll be chatting on ESPN and trying not to have a stroke maybe!
|
| 1:07 |
: Well online. If they put me on camera, I might get angry and tip a desk over.
|
| 1:07 |
What are the chances that enough people vote for a fringe candidate to keep him on the ballot (e.g. Kent) that a “worthy” candidate like Maddux somehow doesn’t get elected. Will the Earth actually open up and swallow Cooperstown if this happens? |
| 1:08 |
: None.
|
| 1:08 |
You say you like the HOF for “giving the greatest players in baseball history a special, valued honor for their abilities.” Is it really about the players themselves? |
| 1:08 |
: Well, yeah, that’s the point. For the best to be honored.
|
| 1:08 |
: What’s so weird about that?
|
| 1:08 |
You say you like the HOF for “giving the greatest players in baseball history a special, valued honor for their abilities.” But do you mean you care about the players themselves getting recognition? Like, you’re worried Roger Clemens might be sad? |
| 1:09 |
: Yes. Roger Clemens deserves his proper recognition for his achievements.
|
| 1:09 |
: It’s a matter of justice.
|
| 1:09 |
Not sure if you’re in-the-know, but if so… Were the changes at Viva el Birdos driven entirely by SBNation’s push to publish more content? If so, it’s hard to believe. |
| 1:09 |
: Dan’s come right out and said that the issue they had with him is that they wanted more posts a day. You do the math.
|
| 1:09 |
Any type of Tanaka movement this week? Been deathly slow and quiet. |
| 1:10 |
: No, which is obnoxious because we need other stuff to talk about
|
| 1:10 |
Could the O’s and Mariners come to a deal on Nick Franklin? (This would require the Orioles to at least consider that Ryan Flaherty and Jemile Weeks are not MLB-caliber 2Bs.) |
| 1:10 |
: Oh please Jesus yes. That would make me winter. O’s more likely to sign Ryan Franklin.
|
| 1:11 |
: A few more and then I have to go, so last chance for wacky Qs
|
| 1:11 |
Worse than the bikini-clad cartoons is viewing Fangraphs on my iPhone and getting bounced to the Candy Crush Saga page in the App store. |
| 1:11 |
Will the big unit and Pedro make it in on the 1st ballot? |
| 1:11 |
: Yes or I’m going to just travel from house to house, flipping over everybody’s desk
|
| 1:11 |
Being that I’m snowed in, not working and starving, I’m more disturbed by the banner ad with a mouth watering sub on it |
| 1:11 |
: FIVE DOLLAR FOOTLONGS!
|
| 1:11 |
: I’m surprised no male strip club’s tried to seal that logo and violate Subway’s IP.
|
| 1:12 |
Aren’t the Dodgers playing a dangerous game with Kershaw ? |
| 1:12 |
: Yes
|
| 1:12 |
If you had a HOF ballot and someone offered you $12,000 to vote Jack Morris, would you? |
| 1:12 |
: No. Without ethics, I’m worthless.
|
| 1:12 |
: A writer has to have trust with his/her audience.
|
| 1:12 |
: Well, on some level at least
|
| 1:13 |
Which third basemen should be in the Hall that aren’t? |
| 1:14 |
: Dwight Evans and Graig nettles, I’ definitely put in.
|
| 1:14 |
: Probably Buddy Bell and on crazy peak, Ken Boyer.
|
| 1:14 |
Doug Fister=worst move of the offseason? |
| 1:15 |
: For someone it’s also the best!
|
| 1:15 |
: I actually think the Choo contract will be worse in the end.
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski, Qu’est que c’est? Fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa. |
| 1:15 |
What’s it take to get Carp from off the Sox bench ? |
| 1:15 |
: A strong fishing pole and corn.
|
| 1:15 |
When people argue that Morris should be in the Hall of Fame given his ability to pitch to the score, do they realize that they’re essentially arguing that he purposefully pitched substantially worse than average for the innings where the game presumably “didn’t matter”? All of his innings average out to slightly better than average at preventing runs. Ugh. |
| 1:16 |
: If they realized stuff, they wouldn’t be arguing for morris
|
| 1:16 |
: But you don’t even have to get that far – we *know* morris didn’t actually pitch better in close games. We *know* that his W-L record is right about what you expect for a player with his runs allowed and runs support.
|
| 1:16 |
: So don’t even need to get there.
|
| 1:16 |
Expectations for B.J. Upton next season? Obviously he will better because he can’t be worse, but to what extent does he bounceback? |
| 1:16 |
: Solid bounceback.
|
| 1:16 |
Why do people think Middlebrooks is good? |
| 1:17 |
: Vigorous hope.
|
| 1:17 |
So, your HOF ballot would be…………….? |
| 1:17 |
: Said it on Twitter, but Thomas, Biggio, Piazza, Bagwell, Raines, Palmeiro, Sosa, Walker, McGwire, Kent
|
| 1:17 |
Jim Kaat, Al Oliver or Tiny Oliva are not at the border with McGriff and TJ? |
| 1:17 |
: Well, I have to pick one of each to be the line.
|
| 1:17 |
If Derek Jeter was caught with PED’s would he still make the hall of fame? |
| 1:18 |
: That’s something I’d love to see. Does his reputation plummet due to betrayal? Or do people just forget about PEDs?
|
| 1:18 |
: I really have no idea.
|
| 1:18 |
Can Schoop play Shortstop? Have the Orioles tried this? |
| 1:18 |
: Arm probably doesn’t play there
|
| 1:18 |
Mike Mussina was awesome. It sucks that he left the Orioles for the Yankees. But he was still awesome. |
| 1:19 |
Szymborski, top 5 baseball writer? |
| 1:19 |
: I shouldn’t be in your top 5 – that’s too high.
|
| 1:19 |
Has a week but not totally absurd candidate ever championed his own cause as much as Morris has? |
| 1:19 |
: Dno’t believe so.
|
| 1:19 |
The O’s are looking for righty power bats. Should they take a chance on Frenchy? |
| 1:19 |
: On some level, a flyer makes sense, but I really really dont’ want to see that.
|
| 1:20 |
: It’s far harder to get rid of Francoeur than to sign him.
|
| 1:20 |
Am I the only one who thinks Schilling’s CGSO in the ’93 WS was more impressive than Morris’ CGSO in ’91? The Jays lineup in ’93 was wayyyy better than the Braves lineup. Jays had scored 25 runs in previous two games |
| 1:20 |
: Even if it’s not, Schilling has the second highest WPA for a pitcher in postseason history. If his postseason doesn’t get him over the bump, then nobody’s does.
|
| 1:20 |
Albert Pujols has how many _ All-Star years left in him? And does he still have one MVP type year in him? |
| 1:20 |
: 2
|
| 1:20 |
: No.
|
| 1:21 |
Would you be acceptable to a trade where the Hall votes in Morris and Dale Murphy (retroactively) but also puts Bonds and Clemens at the same time? |
| 1:21 |
: Yes.
|
| 1:21 |
: Murphy’s a better candidate than Morris.
|
| 1:21 |
How badly would R. Zimmerman’s value suffer with a full-time switch to 1B? |
| 1:21 |
: Quite a bit.
|
| 1:21 |
David Cone or Lou whitaker are not HOFers. Why do people get upset that people fall off after 1 year rather than 7-8? Lets clear the pool of the people who shouldnt make the hall so that there are more votes for deserving players |
| 1:22 |
: Sticking on teh ballot longer gives you more opportunity to move him up (see Blyleven) or to keep him in teh public eye for vet committee.
|
| 1:22 |
If you could force everyone to read any one book, which would you pick? |
| 1:23 |
: Whatever book teaches people that “your” and “you’re” are different words, that “dominant” and “dominate” are different words, and to stop saying insure when you mean ensure.
|
| 1:23 |
What’s up between you and the new head of Viva El Birdos? (We’re on your side regardless) |
| 1:23 |
: I posted in the thread
|
| 1:23 |
Actually, without ethics you would be worth $12,000. |
| 1:24 |
I assume you mean Darrell Evans. Anyway, no love for Dick Allen? |
| 1:24 |
: Wait, what did I say?
|
| 1:24 |
: Shit, I said Dwight? WTF Szymborski?
|
| 1:24 |
Maybe not a top 5 writer, but the #1 Szymborski in anything baseball. |
| 1:24 |
: I hope so.
|
| 1:25 |
: My life isn’t complete until I track down Illinois Dan Szymborski and defeat him in one-on-one combat.
|
| 1:25 |
: My other project, ruining the ability of Dave Szymborski to google himself is proceeding well.
|
| 1:25 |
OK but if/when Clemens is in the hall, you’re not gonna think, “I’m so excited for Roger and his family on this special day”, right? You’re gonna think, “I’m happy the baseball community appealed to reason.” |
| 1:25 |
: Justice.
|
| 1:25 |
So…Strunk and White’s The Elements of Style. |
| 1:26 |
Is it possible that Dan Duquette has simply recognized that free agency is pretty much the most inefficient method to acquire players? And therefore is unwilling to spend substantial dollars on ANY free agent? This might explain his strategy for the past 2 offseasons and indicate a pattern of decision-making going forward. Thoughts? |
| 1:26 |
: If you’re a mid-80s win team and your worry is efficiency and you don’t have a Rays-type farm system, you’re doing it wrong.
|
| 1:27 |
Most people know the difference between you’re and your. They just make typos because it’s very easy to typo homophones. I also typo won/one a lot. |
| 1:27 |
: Your wrong.
|
| 1:27 |
: BOOM
|
| 1:27 |
: heh
|
| 1:27 |
: Sorry, amusing myself.
|
| 1:27 |
: ON that note, it’s time for me to sign off for another week.
|
| 1:28 |
: Assuming I don’t freeze to death in the next 24 hours, you can find my work primarily at ESPN.com, projections and chats here at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, and at post offices around the country where I’ve not pulled down the wanted signs.
|
| 1:28 |
: Speaking of, does anyone actually look at those?
|
| 1:28 |
: OK post office, I’m on the lookout for non-descript white guy from black-and-white photo
|
| 1:28 |
: Do they even those anymore? I just see commemorative stamps.
|
| 1:29 |
insure is the dominate drink for you’re mom |
| 1:29 |
: I’m kinda talking to myself bizarrely now, so AWAAAAAY we go!
|
| 1:29 |
:
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Is this the worst off season in O’s history?