Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/6/14

by Dave Cameron

January 6, 2014

11:59

Dan Szymborski: And here we are, the final Szym chat until Autordämmerung continues with the Hall of Fame announcement on Wednesday.

11:59

Dan Szymborski: And 2nd to last chat until I’m forced to switch to the new Cover it Live interface with more stuff.

12:00

Comment From RotoLando
Between the time when the oceans drank The Expos and the rise of the sons of Amaro, there was an age undreamed of. And unto this, Dan Szymborski, destined to wear the jeweled crown of Severnaya upon a troubled brow. It is I, his chronicler, who alone can tell thee of his saga. Let me tell you of the days of high conjectture!

12:00

Comment From Froglegs Jackson
PEANUT BUTTER JELLLLLLLLLLLY TIME

12:00

Comment From StevePete
Who’s the jackass who’s not going to put Maddux on their ballot?

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Probably Chass.

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Because he didn’t know how to use a fax machine and they just got a blank page from him and assumed he was just being a jackass.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know if it makes the final cut, but on a podcast I did that airs tomorrow (Leitch) I do a bad imitation of Murray Chass angered that the robot is eating his ballot.

12:01

Comment From Orange
As an occasional poster on VEB, what are your general thoughts on the changes?

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Dropping Dan Moore was stupid. Hopefully it isn’t a bad omen of SEOtimization being emphasized.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: My initial encounter with the new guy there did not go well (I posted in the thread afew minutes ago about it since people asked)

12:02

Comment From DLowe
Of Rodney, Balfour, Janssen, and C Allen, which (if any) do you see getting more than 30 saves in 2014? Thanks

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Janssen’s the safest – he’s on a team and officially has the job.

12:03

Comment From JB
This will be the most interesting HoF vote yet, right?

12:03

Dan Szymborski: In the interesting time vein!

12:03

Comment From Myke
Is it easier to amend the Constitution or change the voting system for the HOF?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Constitution? It’s easier to amend THE PHYSICAL LAWS OF THE UNIVERSE than the get the HoF to acknowledge changes need to be made.

12:05

Dan Szymborski: You know that acceleration due to gravity on earth of -9.8 m/s/s? I think you’d have better luck changing that than a process that ensures that voters are qualifeid to be making judgments.

12:05

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
This is the first time I’ve been awake for Szymborski chat in a month so this better be good.

12:05

Dan Szymborski: Last week was the first in a while that someone didn’t say that it was the worst chat ever, so we’ve at least reached a plateau of terribliciousness.

12:05

Comment From Guest
If the current projected HOF results stand (Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Biggio all IN…Morris OUT….Bagwell, Piazza not quote yet…..is the process actually sorta WORKING this year?

12:07

Dan Szymborski: Problem is, you need 4 to get in just to leave the mess the *sam* – Randy/Pedro/Smoltz/Sheffield join next year and Nomar should at least be *discussed* based on peak.

12:07

Dan Szymborski: It’s like when you have a 500 page book to do a report on. You figure, OK, I can read 50 pages a day and leave myself a week to do analyze and write the paper.

12:08

Dan Szymborski: Now, it’s 4 days before the report is due. You haven’t even started. At that point, you can’t say “OK, I read 50 pages today, so the process is working”

12:08

Comment From RotoLando
The sexy cartoon girls have been replaced with an AARP ad. Damn complainers.

12:08

Dan Szymborski: I sent in an artist’s rendition of me in a bikini. Sexy cartoon girls is no longer a thing.

12:09

Comment From Burt_Mancuso
I love it when you write german, greetz from Germany!

12:09

Dan Szymborski: My German is fractured – I can read it better than I can write it and write it better than I can speak it.

12:09

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
It seems today, that all you see, is violence in movies and Dan Syzmborski.

12:10

Dan Szymborski: EVEN THE SONG WRITTEN ABOUT ME DOESNT HAVE MY NAME RIGHT!

12:10

Comment From Zack
If you’re running the O’s, is Kendrys Morales worth giving up a 1st round pick? (assuming a reasonable contract)

12:10

Dan Szymborski: A reasonable contract, yes. Probably not one he would sign.

12:11

Comment From Dan
Do you like the idea of Jeremy Jeffress as a starter? Think his SSS stats with his sinker are impressive?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: It’s worth a try. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

12:11

Dan Szymborski: A team that’s not taking calculated risks better be one that’s already winning 100 games because that’s the route to improving and getting performance where there wasn’t any before.

12:11

Comment From Guest
What does the Nationals infield look like after 2014? The prevailing wisdom seems to be Zimmerman at first, Rendon at third, ??? at second. But it’s also at least in theory possible that Zimmerman learns to throw, and they need a 1B. Or they move Zimmerman but keep Rendon at 2B anyway, so they need a 3B. A lot of moving parts there.

12:12

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it’s hard to say until we see his arm all year.

12:12

Dan Szymborski: Zimmerman that is.

12:12

Comment From DLowe
Junior Lake, Adam Eaton, and Leonys Martin all seem like similar players to me (experience, 5 x 5 numbers, etc.) – how would you rank them for 2014 and which one do you prefer?

12:13

Dan Szymborski: They’re probably similar tier. Eaton’s hurt a little because I don’t think he has the ideal skill set to make the most of the Cell.

12:13

Comment From Josef
Hello, Dan. I’m wondering if you have any thoughts on the upcoming Hall of Fame announcement.

12:14

Dan Szymborski: Hall of Fame? Wuzzat? Is there an exhibit somewhere of the people from Fame? Nia Peeples is still hot.

12:14

Comment From StevePete
What’s Mulder’s ZIPS projection? Anywhere near average?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t done it and to be perfectly honest, I’m not even sure how to approach this.

12:14

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Thomas and Biggio make the HOF? What discount should we apply to the ballot collecting thingy?

12:15

Dan Szymborski: Late ballots tend to be dumber ones, so knock some small percentage off the deserving and give it to the marginal (Mattingly, Smith) or worse (imagine who I’m talkinga bout)

12:15

Comment From Bret
Assuming the same price tag, who is the better fit for the Jays? Ubaldo or Santana?

12:15

Dan Szymborski: Ubaldo. If you’re going to overpay, Ubaldo has more upside, I feel.

12:16

Comment From Guest
6×5 (add OBP) OF3 for 2014: Cespedes or Cuddyer?

12:16

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of Cuddyer in real life, but since you get Coors with him in fantasy, gotta go with him.

12:16

Comment From Terrible Ted
Do you understand any of Charlie Sheen’s tweets?

12:17

Dan Szymborski: Don’t follow him.

12:17

Comment From JB
Which scenario is more likely?

12:18

Dan Szymborski: Which is stuck with a case of prospect’s disease – I Don’t Care is a much better shortstop but he doesn’t really have the bat to displace What or I Don’t Know. Probably a 5th infield.

12:18

Comment From dbet
If I felt like there were 11 candidates(including Maddux), I wouldn’t vote for Maddux because I know he is already getting in.

12:18

Dan Szymborski: That’s my strategy. It’s annoyed at least several people.

12:18

Comment From RotoLando
Papa Szymbo versus “Classy” Murray Chassy for the World Heavyweight Championship live on PPV!

12:19

Dan Szymborski: I better win, I’m heavier than him and he’s got like 130 years on me.

12:19

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Jays more likely to get Santana or Jimenez? Who would be better?

12:19

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully Ubaldo. Santana’s too lottery tickety for a contender.

12:20

Dan Szymborski: Santana return to Minnesota really a terrific fit if both parties are willing. The Twins are in Sweet Jesus, Why Do We Keep Developing Guys Who Pitch Like Nick Blackburn Let’s Sign Some Random Dudes mode.

12:20

Dan Szymborski: But we’d have to abbreviate, that’s too longer for the Twins instruction manual.

12:20

Comment From JB
Which scenario is more likely? (1) A few get elected, but a number of worthy guys fall off. (2) No one gets elected, the world implodes?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: 1

12:20

Comment From Swing and Miss Puiggy
oh jeez….forgot to post w/ the handle….we’ll have some very hard hitting questions from “guest” today

12:21

Dan Szymborski: WAIT THATS NOT CHRISTOPHER GUEST? DAFUQ?

12:21

Comment From Eric Hosmer
Who’s better, me or Brandon Belt?

12:21

Dan Szymborski: Belt by a nose. I like both of you.

12:21

Comment From David
Will the Astros be relevant for anything other than terribility (terribleness? terriblitude? terrorbirds?) this year?

12:21

Dan Szymborski: Terrible, but promising. You can see the shoots of adequacy growing there.

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Super excited to see Springer.

12:22

Comment From LaLoosh
oh here we go taking potshots at someone’s entire being bc they grew up before FIP and fWAR were ever dreamed up. this is starting on the right foot. Weren’t Chass jokes funny like 5 yrs ago?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: It isn’t about fWAR. It’s about Chass’s lack of journalistic ethics. The backne thing? Declaring Biggio guilty by association?

12:22

Comment From Dan
What are the next 5 zips due up for those of us who are junkies.

12:23

Dan Szymborski: Reds and Mets this week. To find past that, you’ll need detective work.

12:23

Comment From Froglegs Jackson
ZIPS has a pretty nice projection for Addison Reed. Are you concerned about his > 2 MPH velo loss?

12:23

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but I’m concerned about every pitcher all the time.

12:24

Comment From Conrad
Who is the best defensive 2B not named Darwin Barney?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: Pedroia?

12:24

Comment From J.J. Putz
2 GS? I’m logging 200 IP this year!

12:24

Comment From Swing and Miss Puiggy
over/under 100PA for Grady Sizemore in 2014?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: 100 (since choices below 0 would be wasted)

12:24

Comment From StevePete
Do you feel good about the future of the hall if those top 4 guys (Biggio, Maddux, Glavine, Big Hurt) get elected?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: I’d feel less momentary panic. To actually feel good, you’d need those 4, Bagwell, Piazza, and Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina all above 50%.

12:25

Comment From Alex
Would Murray Chass be more interesting if he just went full-heel and started wearing a Jack Morris jersey and burning HOF ballot?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: At least he’s committed.

12:25

Comment From Malone
Of all the projections released so far on this site, the Trumbo one in AZ is salient for me. ZiPS sees his ISO jumping 26 points above his career line and the AVG going up 19 points, giving him a .354 wOBA in 2014 compared to a career .329. What say you?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: wOBA isn’t park-adjusted.

12:26

Dan Szymborski: He’s going to an easier HR park (from a fairly tough one) in an easier league.

12:26

Comment From Robert
Since Oakland is so far out you have any idea on Michael Taylors OPS+? He had an interesting AAA season but didn’t fair to well in the majors.

12:26

Dan Szymborski: I do!

12:26

Comment From Grack Zeinke
Think the Yankees assumed interest in Tanaka is greater than their real interest? I mean, if the M’s attempt a take out bid of 6/120M, do you still think it’ll become a bidding war? The Yankees don’t seem as profligate as past yrs.

12:26

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know *what* the Yankees are doing. I don’t think even they know.

12:26

Comment From King Harald
Sons of Abraham DLC to CK2: Good enough to purchase at full price, or should I wait for the inevitable discount?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably wait for the discount, it’s not *that* big a change.

12:28

Dan Szymborski: Not enough Pope manuevers or enough practical use of being Jewish to be that urgent a DLC.

12:28

Comment From Terrible Ted
Damn college students…get a job! Then you won’t miss a chat.

12:28

Comment From dbet
Has anyone cared about using a median in baseball? Everyone is all hung up on averages

12:28

Dan Szymborski: You don’t see much in in medians in baseball.

12:28

Comment From Swing and Miss Puiggy
If you could change just ONE aspect of HOF voting would it be A. eliminate the 10 player limit or B. Eliminate the 5% to stay on the ballot threshold (any player retired for 5+ years not already in can be voted for).

12:28

Dan Szymborski: A

12:28

Comment From BobbyS
I’m surrounded by nearly a foot of snow… you’re just gonna have to make this chat last a day or two longer than usual…

12:29

Dan Szymborski: Start digging!

12:29

Dan Szymborski: After chat. For now you can stay.

12:30

Dan Szymborski: Given the temperatures, if you don’t get that taken care of, it’s going to be like trying to smash through plate armor with a nerf bat.

12:30

Dan Szymborski: That hasn’t been tried since Agincourt.

12:30

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Any process that gives more HOF consideration to Jack Morris than Roger Clemens isn’t “working”.

12:30

Comment From Chuck
D.Dahl – worth a stash in dynasty leagues? Will he get back to playing baseball & end all the off field drama?

12:31

Dan Szymborski: Certainly worth a stash if you have the room.

12:31

Comment From lake maloney
Neither Aaron Hicks nor Jake Marisnick are listed as starters on his team’s MLB.com website depth chart. Are Hicks and Marisnick reasonable trade targets for the Seattle Mariners, who lack outfielders, specifically those of the defensive variety?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: If they’re inexpensive, which they may not be.

12:32

Comment From Malone
I’m getting ads for adoption now. At first they thought I would be turned on by cartoon girls, but have concluded that I’m just an impotent fool. How dare you mock me!!

12:32

Comment From Josiah
Since it’s the last year of Morris arguments, what is your favorite Morris argument? Mine is now the similarity score argument which I had never heard before this year.

12:32

Dan Szymborski: The Winningest Pitcher of the Decade argument.

12:33

Dan Szymborski: So was Paul Derringer. And Bucky Walters. And Frank Viola.

12:33

Dan Szymborski: If you have a list of Freak Trivia achievements, the guys at the bottom are going to be lousy example of excellence. As is Jack Morris.

12:34

Dan Szymborski: To catch Jack Morris’s IP and ERA+, Kevin Appier would need 1228 2/3 IP of 6.23 ERA baseball. Does anyone think that performance would make Appier a better player?

12:34

Comment From Swing and Miss Puiggy
I was fascinated to read about how only ~6-7 players get put on the average HOF ballot recently….seems the 10 man limit isn’t really the problem….

12:35

Dan Szymborski: But there are some guys that want to vote for more that can’t. It’s not like it would make the guys voting 0 vote for -1 Hall of Famers.

12:35

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Its funny because I double checked to see if your name was spelled right and still spelled it wrong.

12:35

Comment From Grack Zeinke
what do u think Drew ultimately signs for?

12:35

Dan Szymborski: 2/20 Mets. I think either Boras or possibly Drew himself overcalculated.

12:36

Comment From BobbyS
Who signs for something reasonable first, Cruz or Morales? Who do you think ends up with them?

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Cruz I think. Already reportedly toying with the notion of a 1-year deal.

12:36

Comment From Matt
Why is Glavine pretty much a lock for the HoF, but Mussina is getting no love? Mussina was the better pitcher and pitched in a tougher league, albeit for a shorter time. Is this a case of voters falling in love with counting stats?

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Yes. 3 is a bigger number than 2.

12:36

Comment From Theo backer
Are the Cubs really a player on Tanaka? And if so, any possibility they sign him as well as resign shark bait?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: I think they are, but I don’t think they keep Samardzija *and* Tanaka

12:37

Comment From King Harald
Did you ever have a chance to really get into EU4? If so, what are your thoughts? I recall reading some complaints about one of the more recent updates.

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Not yet.

12:37

Comment From Jesse
Hey Dan, thanks for the chat. What do you think about Jon Singleton in the future? I see his projection is around 60 at bats this year. Is his comp a guy like Chris Carter, or do you buy that there’s more there? What kind of ceiling?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: He’s still very young, I’m still cautiously optimistic about his upside. The Astros could use an extra Carter though as well,b ut I think he can be better.

12:37

Comment From Josiah
What player, who fell off the Hall of Fame ballot after 1 year, would have been the cause celebre for the sabremetric community?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: Not sure I understand – Ron Santo was one. he was actually one-and-doned but a review board put him and some other guys back on the ballot.

12:39

Comment From BobbyS
Mike Petriello’s article on Mulder is kinda interesting… not that it helps with a projection!

12:39

Comment From Cubdom
Any chance of seeing K.Bryant before 2015? And if not, does that mean Olt rediscovered his groove?

12:39

Dan Szymborski: There’s no pressing need to rush Bryant.

12:40

Dan Szymborski: Olt will get a chance, though his stock really dropped in 2013

12:40

Comment From Fuggles
Do you support a parallel HOF based on statistical merit?

12:41

Dan Szymborski: I prefer the main HoF to be based on merit. And excellence and statistical merit should go together, it’s dangerous to isolate them as different.

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Because let’s be honest, the character clause is something BBWAA voters suddenly discovered after 80 years

12:41

Comment From Jack Morris
I don’t know who you’re talking about? Probably Maddux, since I belong in before him.

12:41

Comment From RotoLando
The Twins should sign Ervin Santana and Johan Santana and have the band Santana play after a game one night. It would be called Santanarama. As a bonus, they could play all Bananarama covers.

12:41

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
He’s a well respected Dan about town, doing the best things so conservatively.

12:41

Dan Szymborski: heh

12:41

Comment From Nick
Is this the worst off season in O’s history?

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Well, it didn’t have the Glenn Davis trade.

12:41

Comment From Swing and Miss Puiggy
Ugh, saw that don’t vote for Maddux in order to keep Jeff Kent on the ballot argument…..how has it come to this

12:42

Dan Szymborski: As far as I’m concerned, it’s the fault of the BBWAA-induced logjam for making it come to that.

12:42

Dan Szymborski: I’d vote Kent over Maddux for simple triage reasons.

12:43

Comment From Guest
“If I felt like there were 11 candidates…” Hopefully a 175 or so people don’t all do this [or worse yet, 500-some-odd] 🙂

12:44

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but the voters aren’t unknowns. 175 guys aren’t suddenly going to vote strategically after never having done so before

12:44

Comment From kevinthecomic
I just had a Wild Cherry Diet Pepsi — this says that I am CRAZY, but in a responsible sort of way.

12:44

Comment From USC
Will Buster hit more than 20 HRs any season in the future, or is he a slightly lesser Joe Mauer, with the inevitable move to 1B included?

12:44

Dan Szymborski: It’s tough as the environment for him to hit is terrible.

12:44

Comment From Guest
I am not sure why anyone cares who is “in the hall”, other than the people and their friends……a lot of angst over something that is even less important than the actual games

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see what’s wrong or trivial about giving the greatest players in baseball history a special, valued honor for their abilities.

12:45

Comment From Grack Zeinke
Santana returning to MN? Huh?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: *If* it happened. There have been hints.

12:45

Comment From USC
which “worthy” guys are going to fall off? I’m still pissed Will Clark only lasted 1 (!) ballot.

12:45

Dan Szymborski: Given that the non-public ballots tend to be worse, I dont’ tink Walker, McGwire, Sosa, or Palmeiro are safe.

12:45

Comment From Froglegs Jackson
What % would you put on Kevin Goldstein eventually landing a GM job?

12:46

Dan Szymborski: 1%. I think he’s one of the guys who *could* do the job, but I get the impression from him that he wouldn’t want a GM.

12:46

Comment From Bret
I agree with you that Ubaldo is the better fit for the Jays, but I’m surprised that you see Santana as more of a lottery ticket. What makes you feel that Ubaldo is a bit “safer”?

12:46

Dan Szymborski: Ubaldo’s the one that has had the longest sustained run of excellence.

12:46

Dan Szymborski: Santana had a solid season, but he’s just a year away from being a tee-ball.

12:46

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
What is the baseball equivalent of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame putting KISS in before Deep Purple and The Zombies?

12:47

Dan Szymborski: I said it before, putting Morris in is like putting in *The Bay City Rollers* first.

12:47

Comment From Grack Zeinke
as if Chass were the only problem with the BBWAA…

12:47

Dan Szymborski: But he’s the most mockable one, along with Caputo.

12:47

Comment From King Harald
Do we still get to discuss non-baseball topics here like we did months ago?

12:47

Dan Szymborski: It’s my chat, so of course.

12:48

Comment From Zack
2014 only: Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty, or Jemile Weeks?

12:48

Dan Szymborski: Ouch, I hope this is a fantasy decision you dont’ have to make. Flaherty has the clearest path.

12:48

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Fangraphs should not be allowed to have banner ads for animated bikini chicks from 9-5. Don’t you guys know I have to work?

12:48

Dan Szymborski: What kind of horrible puritanical workplace are you at?

12:48

Comment From Boof
Instead of forever lamenting the HOF, when will you guys team with other smart baseball analysts/writers/etc. to form an alternative HOF? Like, “HOF+”?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Cooperstown is pretty cool – I’d like to make that HoF better.

12:49

Comment From Zack
Is Billy Butler due to fall off a cliff soon?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Nah, he’s got a plateau for awhile

12:49

Comment From Andrew
Word is that the Red Sox have interest in Denorfia. With Headley likely gone after 2014, would it make sense for the Padres to try and get Middlebrooks, and if so, what would they have to include beside Denorfia?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think the Red Sox want to hang onto Middlebrooks for 2014 at least

12:50

Comment From BobbyS
Can I stay, even if i start asking for Gamel’s ATL projection again?!

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Heh, it’s on my to do list

12:50

Comment From Robert
What do you expect from Jose Abreu this year? I can’t find any projections for him since he’s only played in Cuba.

12:50

Dan Szymborski: league averageish 1B

12:50

Comment From Swing and Miss Puiggy
if just Bonds, Arod, and Clemens ended up being HOF snubbed due to the “steroid era” but the other deserving stars of the time eventually get in are we basically OK with that just like how we have come to terms with Pete Rose not being inducted at this point?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Well, for one, all 3 are better players than Rose.

12:51

Dan Szymborski: And Rose is permanently ineligible. Two of the three above didn’t even break an actual baseball rule.

12:51

Comment From Grack Zeinke
Viola was good for a few yrs tho.

12:52

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but ain’t none of those guys been voting for Sweet Music when he was on the ballot

12:52

Comment From Swing and Miss Puiggy
I tried pitching to the score….it turns out the scoreboard doesn’t stand close enough to home plate to make this approach viable.

12:52

Comment From King Harald
Derringer, Walters, Viola… what do you have against the Reds??? /kidding

12:52

Comment From Terrible Ted
The only thing that could possibly make this chat better would be elevator music.

12:53

Dan Szymborski: MILD ELECTRIC PIANO!!! hummmming Vibraphone! Bluesy saxophone, slightly too soft for you to give a shit. here comes the clarinet and a very light snare!

12:53

Comment From LarryA
Bigger “win” by the sabr community? Morris not getting in, or Blyleven getting in?

12:53

Dan Szymborski: Blyleven.

12:53

Comment From Rated Rookie
Not a HOF question and not really a question at all: moving Jason Heyward to leadoff seems like the move that might actualize the MVP-potential others have seen in him.

12:53

Dan Szymborski: Would be fun.

12:53

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Being suddenly backhandedly supportive of the HOF voting is the new market inefficiency 😉

12:54

Comment From Ma
why wouldn’t the Sox sign Drew for that (2/20) as Willsurance?

12:54

Dan Szymborski: They might, but I suspect that turning down the qualifying offer only to return to the team and take a backup job might be kind of humiliating

12:54

Comment From RotoLando
If you had to pick a Marlins starting pitcher, other than Jose Fernandez, for a fantasy team, who would it be?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: Alvarez?

12:55

Comment From Guest
What are Trout’s odds to end up in the HOF? Bonds?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: Have some career projections for Trout going up today…

12:55

Comment From Guest
So HOF voting is based on percentage, correct? So what you have to do is make sure your ballot gets submitted while stopping every other sportswriter with a ballot from getting their own in, right?

12:56

Dan Szymborski: Yeah. I think making it email only could knock off about 150 of them.

12:56

Comment From Christopher Guest
The inclusion of Morris in the HOF depends on how large you want the HOF to be. Every player can be ranked, so where do you draw the line of inclusion?

12:56

Dan Szymborski: Fred McGriff and Tommy John is the border.

12:56

Comment From Ma
Was Mussina ever considered a top-5 SP? I recall a spell where Glavine was most definitely so, but not Moose. Pedro, Maddux, and Johnson, then Glavine, Schilling, and Smoltz, then you start thinking about Mussina…

12:58

Dan Szymborski: He was top 5 in AL in ERA+ 7 or 8 times.

12:59

Dan Szymborski: He didn’t end up with more career bWAR than Glavine in fewer seasons and innings by being inferior to Glavine.

12:59

Comment From Doug
Rosenthal wrote about Yovani Gallardo as a potential trade candidate the other day. Is he a good bounce back candidate?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: He’s worth hanging onto.

12:59

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Isn’t Lou Whitaker the ultimate “fell off ballot after 1 year” travesty?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: It’s pretty f’awful.

12:59

Comment From Grack Zeinke
David Cone lasted all of one vote. absurd.

12:59

Comment From Ben
Brandon Belt: top 5 NL first baseman?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:59

Comment From Josiah
I guess my question is, Blyleven and Raines have been rightly praised by the stats community to eventual deserved enshrinement. Would Whitaker or Lofton or another player have gotten the treatment if he stayed more than 1 year?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: Probably, but you need a real concerted effort.

1:00	Dan Szymborski: Remember, Blyleven started with 15% of the vote, a number those others didn’t touch. And we haven’t succeeded with Raines yet

1:00	Comment From John Stamos Justin Upton or Jason Heyward for fantasy purposes next year?

1:00	Dan Szymborski: Upton fantasy, Heyward real lfie

1:00	Comment From Josh I see Drew taking 13/1 before he takes 20/2.

1:01	Dan Szymborski: But I can’t see a team offering it unless they’re insane. You don’t give up a worse pick signing a player for fewer years. Depending on whether you have a protected pick or not, that’s like paying Drew 1/20 or 1/25.

1:01	Comment From Skore When is the giants projection? Are they a strong regression-contender candidate a la Angels?

1:02	Dan Szymborski: Last.

1:02	Comment From Josiah You and Pos have made the Hall of Fame argument time one of my favorite times in baseball.

1:03	Comment From RotoLando If you could “Quantum Leap” into any HOF voter, who would it be, and what would you do?

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Peter Gammons. When I was a kid and I realized that I wasn’t going to be a player, I wanted to be Bill James or Peter Gammons.

1:05	Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t even do anything. I’d just bask in getting to be F’n! Peter Gammons for a day.

1:05	Comment From Robocles What’s a good read on the history of the Napoleonic Wars?

1:05	Dan Szymborski: Blundering to Glory

1:06	Comment From Robocles What’s a good read on the history of the War of the Roses?

1:06	Dan Szymborski: John Gillingham The Wars of the Roses

1:06	Comment From Teddy Ballgame Dan, who do you think ends up with the better career, Puig or Myers? Who has the greater ceiling and floor?

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Myers safer, Puig more variability

1:06	Comment From Arbys Roast Beef Please make an uncharacteristically specific prediction today.

1:07	Dan Szymborski: I will eat 17 Arby’s Roast Beefs over the next years, 10 on those 5 for $5.99 sale. I will also have 7 French Dips.

1:07	Comment From STiVo I try to avoid unthinking arguments as much as possible for the sake of my sanity. But Hall of Fame season renders them virtually unavoidable. Just heard the one about Jack Morris pitching differently depending on the situation. I need a drink…

1:07	Dan Szymborski: Tune in Wednesday, I’ll be chatting on ESPN and trying not to have a stroke maybe!

1:07	Dan Szymborski: Well online. If they put me on camera, I might get angry and tip a desk over.

1:07	Comment From David What are the chances that enough people vote for a fringe candidate to keep him on the ballot (e.g. Kent) that a “worthy” candidate like Maddux somehow doesn’t get elected. Will the Earth actually open up and swallow Cooperstown if this happens?

1:08	Dan Szymborski: None.

1:08	Comment From Boof You say you like the HOF for “giving the greatest players in baseball history a special, valued honor for their abilities.” Is it really about the players themselves?

1:08	Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah, that’s the point. For the best to be honored.

1:08	Dan Szymborski: What’s so weird about that?

1:08	Comment From Boof You say you like the HOF for “giving the greatest players in baseball history a special, valued honor for their abilities.” But do you mean you care about the players themselves getting recognition? Like, you’re worried Roger Clemens might be sad?

1:09	Dan Szymborski: Yes. Roger Clemens deserves his proper recognition for his achievements.

1:09	Dan Szymborski: It’s a matter of justice.

1:09	Comment From King Harald Not sure if you’re in-the-know, but if so… Were the changes at Viva el Birdos driven entirely by SBNation’s push to publish more content? If so, it’s hard to believe.

1:09	Dan Szymborski: Dan’s come right out and said that the issue they had with him is that they wanted more posts a day. You do the math.

1:09	Comment From Curious Any type of Tanaka movement this week? Been deathly slow and quiet.

1:10	Dan Szymborski: No, which is obnoxious because we need other stuff to talk about

1:10	Comment From The Oriole Bird Could the O’s and Mariners come to a deal on Nick Franklin? (This would require the Orioles to at least consider that Ryan Flaherty and Jemile Weeks are not MLB-caliber 2Bs.)

1:10	Dan Szymborski: Oh please Jesus yes. That would make me winter. O’s more likely to sign Ryan Franklin.

1:11	Dan Szymborski: A few more and then I have to go, so last chance for wacky Qs

1:11	Comment From Rated Rookie Worse than the bikini-clad cartoons is viewing Fangraphs on my iPhone and getting bounced to the Candy Crush Saga page in the App store.

1:11	Comment From zack Will the big unit and Pedro make it in on the 1st ballot?

1:11	Dan Szymborski: Yes or I’m going to just travel from house to house, flipping over everybody’s desk

1:11	Comment From Indy Being that I’m snowed in, not working and starving, I’m more disturbed by the banner ad with a mouth watering sub on it

1:11	Dan Szymborski: FIVE DOLLAR FOOTLONGS!

1:11	Dan Szymborski: I’m surprised no male strip club’s tried to seal that logo and violate Subway’s IP.

1:12	Comment From LA Aren’t the Dodgers playing a dangerous game with Kershaw ?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:12	Comment From Eminor3rd If you had a HOF ballot and someone offered you $12,000 to vote Jack Morris, would you?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: No. Without ethics, I’m worthless.

1:12	Dan Szymborski: A writer has to have trust with his/her audience.

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Well, on some level at least

1:13	Comment From Gary Gaetti Which third basemen should be in the Hall that aren’t?

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Dwight Evans and Graig nettles, I’ definitely put in.

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Probably Buddy Bell and on crazy peak, Ken Boyer.

1:14	Comment From zack Doug Fister=worst move of the offseason?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: For someone it’s also the best!

1:15	Dan Szymborski: I actually think the Choo contract will be worse in the end.

1:15	Comment From David Dan Szymborski, Qu’est que c’est? Fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa.

1:15	Comment From Brew Crew What’s it take to get Carp from off the Sox bench ?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: A strong fishing pole and corn.

1:15

Comment From Jack Morris 4eva
When people argue that Morris should be in the Hall of Fame given his ability to pitch to the score, do they realize that they’re essentially arguing that he purposefully pitched substantially worse than average for the innings where the game presumably “didn’t matter”? All of his innings average out to slightly better than average at preventing runs. Ugh.

1:16	Dan Szymborski: If they realized stuff, they wouldn’t be arguing for morris

1:16	Dan Szymborski: But you don’t even have to get that far – we know morris didn’t actually pitch better in close games. We know that his W-L record is right about what you expect for a player with his runs allowed and runs support.

1:16	Dan Szymborski: So don’t even need to get there.

1:16	Comment From zack Expectations for B.J. Upton next season? Obviously he will better because he can’t be worse, but to what extent does he bounceback?

1:16	Dan Szymborski: Solid bounceback.

1:16	Comment From Eminor3rd Why do people think Middlebrooks is good?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: Vigorous hope.

1:17	Comment From Eastern NC So, your HOF ballot would be…………….?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: Said it on Twitter, but Thomas, Biggio, Piazza, Bagwell, Raines, Palmeiro, Sosa, Walker, McGwire, Kent

1:17	Comment From Grack Zeinke Jim Kaat, Al Oliver or Tiny Oliva are not at the border with McGriff and TJ?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: Well, I have to pick one of each to be the line.

1:17	Comment From zack If Derek Jeter was caught with PED’s would he still make the hall of fame?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: That’s something I’d love to see. Does his reputation plummet due to betrayal? Or do people just forget about PEDs?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: I really have no idea.

1:18	Comment From Ringtone Composer Can Schoop play Shortstop? Have the Orioles tried this?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: Arm probably doesn’t play there

1:18	Comment From The Oriole Bird Mike Mussina was awesome. It sucks that he left the Orioles for the Yankees. But he was still awesome.

1:19	Comment From Grover Szymborski, top 5 baseball writer?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: I shouldn’t be in your top 5 – that’s too high.

1:19	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Has a week but not totally absurd candidate ever championed his own cause as much as Morris has?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: Dno’t believe so.

1:19	Comment From zack The O’s are looking for righty power bats. Should they take a chance on Frenchy?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: On some level, a flyer makes sense, but I really really dont’ want to see that.

1:20	Dan Szymborski: It’s far harder to get rid of Francoeur than to sign him.

1:20	Comment From Jimmy Am I the only one who thinks Schilling’s CGSO in the ’93 WS was more impressive than Morris’ CGSO in ’91? The Jays lineup in ’93 was wayyyy better than the Braves lineup. Jays had scored 25 runs in previous two games

1:20	Dan Szymborski: Even if it’s not, Schilling has the second highest WPA for a pitcher in postseason history. If his postseason doesn’t get him over the bump, then nobody’s does.

1:20	Comment From MAtt Albert Pujols has how many _ All-Star years left in him? And does he still have one MVP type year in him?

1:20	Dan Szymborski: 2

1:20	Dan Szymborski: No.

1:21	Comment From Thomas Would you be acceptable to a trade where the Hall votes in Morris and Dale Murphy (retroactively) but also puts Bonds and Clemens at the same time?

1:21	Dan Szymborski: Yes.

1:21	Dan Szymborski: Murphy’s a better candidate than Morris.

1:21	Comment From Zack How badly would R. Zimmerman’s value suffer with a full-time switch to 1B?

1:21	Dan Szymborski: Quite a bit.

1:21	Comment From LarryA David Cone or Lou whitaker are not HOFers. Why do people get upset that people fall off after 1 year rather than 7-8? Lets clear the pool of the people who shouldnt make the hall so that there are more votes for deserving players

1:22	Dan Szymborski: Sticking on teh ballot longer gives you more opportunity to move him up (see Blyleven) or to keep him in teh public eye for vet committee.

1:22	Comment From Robocles If you could force everyone to read any one book, which would you pick?

1:23	Dan Szymborski: Whatever book teaches people that “your” and “you’re” are different words, that “dominant” and “dominate” are different words, and to stop saying insure when you mean ensure.

1:23	Comment From Jacob What’s up between you and the new head of Viva El Birdos? (We’re on your side regardless)

1:23	Dan Szymborski: I posted in the thread

1:23	Comment From Thomas Actually, without ethics you would be worth $12,000.

1:24	Comment From Gabe I assume you mean Darrell Evans. Anyway, no love for Dick Allen?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: Wait, what did I say?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: Shit, I said Dwight? WTF Szymborski?

1:24	Comment From Sadwick Maybe not a top 5 writer, but the #1 Szymborski in anything baseball.

1:24	Dan Szymborski: I hope so.

1:25	Dan Szymborski: My life isn’t complete until I track down Illinois Dan Szymborski and defeat him in one-on-one combat.

1:25	Dan Szymborski: My other project, ruining the ability of Dave Szymborski to google himself is proceeding well.

1:25	Comment From Boof OK but if/when Clemens is in the hall, you’re not gonna think, “I’m so excited for Roger and his family on this special day”, right? You’re gonna think, “I’m happy the baseball community appealed to reason.”

1:25	Dan Szymborski: Justice.

1:25	Comment From Robocles So…Strunk and White’s The Elements of Style.

1:26

Comment From Zack
Is it possible that Dan Duquette has simply recognized that free agency is pretty much the most inefficient method to acquire players? And therefore is unwilling to spend substantial dollars on ANY free agent? This might explain his strategy for the past 2 offseasons and indicate a pattern of decision-making going forward. Thoughts?

1:26	Dan Szymborski: If you’re a mid-80s win team and your worry is efficiency and you don’t have a Rays-type farm system, you’re doing it wrong.

1:27	Comment From DTSS Most people know the difference between you’re and your. They just make typos because it’s very easy to typo homophones. I also typo won/one a lot.

1:27	Dan Szymborski: Your wrong.

1:27	Dan Szymborski: BOOM

1:27	Dan Szymborski: heh

1:27	Dan Szymborski: Sorry, amusing myself.

1:27	Dan Szymborski: ON that note, it’s time for me to sign off for another week.

1:28	Dan Szymborski: Assuming I don’t freeze to death in the next 24 hours, you can find my work primarily at ESPN.com, projections and chats here at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, and at post offices around the country where I’ve not pulled down the wanted signs.

1:28	Dan Szymborski: Speaking of, does anyone actually look at those?

1:28	Dan Szymborski: OK post office, I’m on the lookout for non-descript white guy from black-and-white photo

1:28	Dan Szymborski: Do they even those anymore? I just see commemorative stamps.

1:29	Comment From Guest insure is the dominate drink for you’re mom

1:29	Dan Szymborski: I’m kinda talking to myself bizarrely now, so AWAAAAAY we go!

1:29

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG