2014 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks by Carson Cistulli January 6, 2014 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis. Batters In the depth-chart graphic below, the author has assigned the entirety of both Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock’s projected WAR to center field. In reality, Parra will likely record starts all over the outfield — an ideal scenario, on account of how Parra is (a) the only one of the the D-backs’ four main outfielders who bats left-handed and also how he’s (b) actually projected to record the highest WAR, both by rate and also in total, of all those same outfielders, including new and powerful acquisition Mark Trumbo. Generally speaking, there’s not a lot in the way of obvious weakness wherein Arizona’s field players are concerned, just as there’s also not a lot in the way of highest-end talent, either. It’s not surprising to find, following his 2013 season, that Paul Goldschmidt is projected to lead the team offensively. For a number of reasons, probably — including his pretty high BABIP last season and also just how regression works — ZiPS doesn’t foresee the first baseman reaching quite the frenzied heights of his 2013 campaign. Pitchers Not unlike their offensive counterparts, the constituent members of the Arizona starting rotation are all, generally speaking, within shouting distance of average. Right-hander Brandon McCarthy falls short of that (1.6) in terms of total projected WAR, although even that lack is due mostly to a conservative innings projection (because of his recent history of injury, one assumes). Of some interest will be the 2014 season of Randall Delgado, which other right-hander recorded nearly a league-average xFIP- (105) in 2013, but whose projections are less optimistic than that. One could ask reasonable questions about the D-backs’ offseason trade for Addison Reed — which cost the club prospect Matt Davidson — and perhaps receive less in the way of totally reasonable answers. Still, that doesn’t make Reed’s likely contribution to what appears to be an above-average bullpen any less real. Bench/Prospects Arizona general manager Kevin Towers has announced that he expects Chris Owings to compete with half-incumbent Didi Gregorius for the starting shortstop job in Arizona. The pair receive almost identical WAR projections on a rate basis here. Much less heralded as a prospect than Owings, but still regarded by ZiPS as capable of producing something like league-average value, is outfielder Ender Inciarte, entering his age-23 season. It is not surprising, among pitching prospects, to find that former seventh-overall selection Archie Bradley receives the best projection. He’s good, is why it isn’t surprising. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Paul Goldschmidt R 26 1B 668 90 156 34 2 32 113 14 5 Martin Prado R 30 3B 663 76 175 36 3 14 80 6 5 Miguel Montero L 30 C 504 51 110 21 1 14 66 0 0 Gerardo Parra L 27 RF 562 66 138 31 5 10 50 11 6 Aaron Hill R 32 2B 514 61 128 28 3 14 63 7 5 A.J. Pollock R 26 CF 572 70 141 31 5 8 53 18 5 Chris Owings R 22 SS 639 73 165 30 6 11 67 16 6 Mark Trumbo R 28 LF 632 84 157 32 3 35 112 6 4 Didi Gregorius L 24 SS 504 55 122 21 7 8 48 3 6 Ender Inciarte L 23 CF 563 60 142 22 6 4 44 37 10 Cliff Pennington B 30 SS 432 45 98 20 3 6 37 10 4 Cody Ross R 33 LF 440 51 103 22 1 14 58 3 2 Tyler Bortnick R 26 2B 480 54 104 21 5 4 44 21 5 Nick Ahmed R 24 SS 597 62 129 25 5 6 49 23 10 Raywilly Gomez B 24 C 405 36 93 18 0 1 33 1 1 Tony Campana L 28 CF 423 51 97 11 4 1 22 36 8 Tuffy Gosewisch R 30 C 359 29 77 20 1 6 37 1 3 Eric Chavez L 36 3B 234 23 55 10 1 8 36 0 0 Bobby Wilson R 31 C 214 23 44 11 0 4 21 0 1 Kila Ka’aihue L 30 1B 463 51 95 20 1 18 62 1 1 Danny Dorn L 29 RF 502 51 108 24 2 18 61 4 1 Andy Marte R 30 3B 204 23 45 8 1 6 24 0 1 Jordan Parraz R 29 RF 369 41 80 16 2 9 37 5 2 Juan Rivera R 35 LF 387 38 93 17 1 9 52 2 2 Nick Evans R 28 1B 426 48 95 20 1 13 50 1 2 Jake Fox R 31 LF 187 18 39 11 1 5 26 0 0 Matt Tuiasosopo R 28 LF 372 43 72 13 1 9 46 2 1 Brent Clevlen R 30 RF 245 24 50 10 2 6 26 3 1 Alfredo Marte R 25 RF 442 45 101 23 2 9 49 3 2 Blake Lalli L 31 C 387 39 87 16 0 8 40 0 1 Keon Broxton R 24 CF 491 46 95 15 3 9 41 12 7 Brandon Jacobs R 23 LF 523 50 110 26 1 13 53 11 9 Sawyer Carroll L 28 1B 332 33 66 12 3 6 36 4 3 Mike Jacobs L 33 1B 471 45 95 18 1 15 54 1 1 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Paul Goldschmidt 668 12.4% 24.6% .233 .322 .271 .364 .504 .367 Martin Prado 663 6.5% 9.2% .138 .298 .287 .333 .425 .328 Miguel Montero 504 10.5% 22.0% .148 .301 .250 .337 .398 .319 Gerardo Parra 562 7.3% 16.9% .139 .314 .271 .327 .410 .313 Aaron Hill 514 7.0% 13.0% .162 .292 .274 .331 .436 .331 A.J. Pollock 572 6.1% 16.8% .123 .311 .268 .315 .391 .311 Chris Owings 639 3.4% 21.4% .122 .332 .270 .298 .392 .302 Mark Trumbo 632 6.8% 23.6% .245 .303 .269 .320 .514 .354 Didi Gregorius 504 6.3% 16.7% .128 .307 .265 .317 .393 .302 Ender Inciarte 563 4.8% 12.3% .088 .305 .272 .311 .360 .300 Cliff Pennington 432 7.4% 18.1% .112 .297 .250 .307 .362 .292 Cody Ross 440 7.7% 19.1% .167 .294 .260 .321 .427 .324 Tyler Bortnick 480 8.1% 18.8% .100 .299 .244 .319 .344 .300 Nick Ahmed 597 5.5% 19.6% .096 .285 .234 .280 .330 .270 Raywilly Gomez 405 7.7% 12.8% .058 .290 .253 .313 .311 .278 Tony Campana 423 5.9% 23.4% .056 .330 .249 .295 .305 .276 Tuffy Gosewisch 359 3.9% 19.5% .119 .270 .229 .266 .348 .266 Eric Chavez 234 7.3% 18.8% .170 .287 .259 .312 .429 .314 Bobby Wilson 214 7.9% 14.5% .122 .258 .234 .298 .356 .281 Kila Ka’aihue 463 10.6% 24.0% .187 .273 .233 .317 .420 .323 Danny Dorn 502 7.0% 25.9% .179 .286 .235 .293 .414 .309 Andy Marte 204 6.4% 19.6% .149 .271 .239 .289 .388 .296 Jordan Parraz 369 6.0% 21.4% .139 .282 .236 .293 .375 .296 Juan Rivera 387 4.9% 11.4% .128 .270 .258 .300 .386 .299 Nick Evans 426 7.5% 25.4% .156 .301 .244 .300 .400 .305 Jake Fox 187 4.8% 21.9% .163 .268 .227 .283 .390 .297 Matt Tuiasosopo 372 9.7% 28.8% .128 .293 .219 .302 .347 .291 Brent Clevlen 245 6.5% 31.8% .142 .306 .221 .273 .363 .281 Alfredo Marte 442 4.5% 21.9% .130 .297 .244 .287 .374 .291 Blake Lalli 387 5.4% 21.2% .111 .288 .240 .282 .351 .277 Keon Broxton 491 6.3% 36.0% .106 .320 .210 .262 .316 .256 Brandon Jacobs 523 5.5% 31.5% .139 .315 .229 .280 .368 .283 Sawyer Carroll 332 8.4% 25.0% .120 .282 .219 .287 .339 .276 Mike Jacobs 471 7.0% 27.8% .150 .275 .219 .274 .369 .282 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Paul Goldschmidt 668 6.9 133 2 3.9 Derrek Lee Martin Prado 663 5.3 105 2 3.2 Rich Rollins Miguel Montero 504 4.8 99 1 3.0 Ed Bailey Gerardo Parra 562 4.9 99 14 2.5 Troy O’Leary Aaron Hill 514 5.3 107 0 2.4 Rich Aurilia A.J. Pollock 572 4.7 91 4 2.3 Marlon Byrd Chris Owings 639 4.4 86 1 2.2 Zoilo Versalles Mark Trumbo 632 6.0 122 -10 2.0 Bubba Trammell Didi Gregorius 504 4.4 92 3 2.0 Russ Adams Ender Inciarte 563 4.5 82 5 1.9 Endy Chavez Cliff Pennington 432 4.1 81 3 1.5 Leo Durocher Cody Ross 440 5.0 101 1 1.2 Shane Spencer Tyler Bortnick 480 4.2 81 0 1.1 Carlos Febles Nick Ahmed 597 3.3 65 7 1.1 Robert Andino Raywilly Gomez 405 3.5 71 0 0.9 Tom Wieghaus Tony Campana 423 3.8 64 5 0.8 Alex Cole Tuffy Gosewisch 359 3.1 66 3 0.7 Brandon Marsters Eric Chavez 234 4.9 99 -1 0.7 Richie Hebner Bobby Wilson 214 3.6 77 -1 0.6 Chad Moeller Kila Ka’aihue 463 4.7 99 -1 0.5 Bob Tumpane Danny Dorn 502 4.3 90 -2 0.3 Peter Camelo Andy Marte 204 3.9 82 -2 0.1 Tom Nevers Jordan Parraz 369 3.9 80 3 0.0 Lou List Juan Rivera 387 4.2 85 -1 0.0 Chad Mottola Nick Evans 426 4.2 89 0 0.0 Justin Huber Jake Fox 187 3.9 81 0 -0.1 Darrell Whitmore Matt Tuiasosopo 372 3.6 76 0 -0.2 Mike Richardson Brent Clevlen 245 3.5 71 1 -0.2 Mike Berger Alfredo Marte 442 3.8 78 0 -0.3 Julio Zuleta Blake Lalli 387 3.5 71 -11 -0.4 Jamie Quirk Keon Broxton 491 2.8 57 3 -0.4 Willie Magallanes Brandon Jacobs 523 3.5 75 0 -0.6 Matt Esquivel Sawyer Carroll 332 3.3 70 0 -0.8 Nathan Panther Mike Jacobs 471 3.5 73 0 -1.1 Jody Davis *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Patrick Corbin L 24 33 31 201.7 167 52 19 192 85 79 Wade Miley L 27 31 30 186.7 136 53 18 187 85 79 Trevor Cahill R 26 30 30 178.3 131 69 17 175 86 80 Brandon McCarthy R 30 22 22 137.7 89 24 14 148 66 62 Archie Bradley R 21 24 24 130.0 95 58 12 130 66 62 Addison Reed R 25 63 0 70.0 75 19 6 61 27 25 Josh Collmenter R 28 54 0 78.0 72 22 8 70 31 29 David Hernandez R 29 70 0 68.0 79 26 7 55 27 25 Brad Ziegler R 34 69 0 61.3 41 19 4 57 24 22 J.J. Putz R 37 47 2 42.0 45 13 4 35 16 15 Andrew Chafin L 24 27 24 133.0 90 67 13 138 74 69 Daniel Hudson R 27 8 8 48.3 36 12 6 50 25 23 Will Harris R 29 60 0 60.7 60 23 6 56 27 25 Matt Reynolds L 29 53 0 42.7 40 12 4 40 18 17 Randall Delgado R 24 29 28 153.0 114 57 25 160 89 83 Joe Thatcher L 32 54 0 30.7 29 10 3 29 14 13 Jake Barrett R 22 55 0 53.7 43 15 6 53 26 24 Tony Sipp L 30 64 0 51.3 51 23 7 46 25 23 Marcos Mateo R 30 30 0 34.7 28 16 3 34 17 16 Joe Paterson L 28 55 0 47.0 37 18 5 47 24 22 Charles Brewer R 26 23 20 120.7 77 39 18 134 72 67 Chase Anderson R 26 20 14 77.7 53 28 11 84 46 43 Matt Langwell R 28 50 0 68.0 50 34 5 68 34 32 Matt Stites R 24 47 0 48.0 39 11 7 49 25 23 Zeke Spruill R 24 26 23 130.3 64 52 15 149 78 73 Bo Schultz R 28 32 8 63.3 35 29 7 69 37 35 David Pauley R 31 23 2 41.3 23 14 5 46 25 23 Jess Todd R 28 44 0 59.3 44 29 7 61 33 31 Eury de la Rosa L 24 61 0 63.3 53 29 9 63 35 33 Ryan Rowland-Smith L 31 30 7 67.0 45 34 9 72 42 39 Alex Sanabia R 25 14 14 72.0 39 24 13 85 47 44 Brett Lorin R 27 30 9 77.0 43 30 12 88 50 47 Adam Russell R 31 43 0 50.7 34 39 5 53 32 30 Garrett Mock R 31 34 7 61.7 42 37 10 68 42 39 Warner Madrigal R 30 45 0 57.3 47 32 9 59 36 34 Nelson Figueroa R 40 9 6 40.0 16 21 8 51 33 31 AJ Schugel R 25 23 20 98.3 59 55 16 113 71 66 Steve Garrison L 27 33 11 71.7 35 24 17 91 57 53 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Patrick Corbin 201.7 849 19.7% 6.1% .287 3.53 3.61 89 91 Wade Miley 186.7 800 17.0% 6.6% .287 3.81 3.85 96 97 Trevor Cahill 178.3 779 16.8% 8.9% .285 4.04 4.21 102 106 Brandon McCarthy 137.7 585 15.2% 4.1% .296 4.05 3.78 102 95 Archie Bradley 130.0 578 16.4% 10.0% .292 4.29 4.40 108 111 Addison Reed 70.0 290 25.9% 6.6% .294 3.21 2.99 81 76 Josh Collmenter 78.0 326 22.1% 6.7% .279 3.35 3.42 85 86 David Hernandez 68.0 285 27.7% 9.1% .284 3.31 3.42 84 86 Brad Ziegler 61.3 260 15.8% 7.3% .273 3.23 3.51 82 89 J.J. Putz 42.0 174 25.9% 7.5% .279 3.21 3.19 81 80 Andrew Chafin 133.0 604 14.9% 11.1% .294 4.67 4.77 118 120 Daniel Hudson 48.3 207 17.4% 5.8% .290 4.28 4.10 108 103 Will Harris 60.7 261 23.0% 8.8% .296 3.71 3.71 94 94 Matt Reynolds 42.7 180 22.2% 6.7% .290 3.59 3.14 91 79 Randall Delgado 153.0 676 16.9% 8.4% .284 4.88 4.96 123 125 Joe Thatcher 30.7 131 22.1% 7.6% .295 3.82 3.52 96 89 Jake Barrett 53.7 229 18.8% 6.5% .292 4.02 4.02 101 101 Tony Sipp 51.3 223 22.9% 10.3% .279 4.03 4.30 102 108 Marcos Mateo 34.7 154 18.2% 10.4% .295 4.15 4.23 105 107 Joe Paterson 47.0 206 18.0% 8.7% .298 4.21 4.31 106 109 Charles Brewer 120.7 535 14.4% 7.3% .295 5.00 5.00 126 126 Chase Anderson 77.7 345 15.4% 8.1% .294 4.98 4.92 126 124 Matt Langwell 68.0 306 16.3% 11.1% .297 4.24 4.33 107 109 Matt Stites 48.0 204 19.1% 5.4% .292 4.31 4.25 109 107 Zeke Spruill 130.3 592 10.8% 8.8% .297 5.04 5.06 127 128 Bo Schultz 63.3 288 12.2% 10.1% .293 4.97 5.01 125 127 David Pauley 41.3 184 12.5% 7.6% .295 5.01 4.79 126 121 Jess Todd 59.3 268 16.4% 10.8% .294 4.70 4.78 119 121 Eury de la Rosa 63.3 282 18.8% 10.3% .287 4.69 4.76 118 120 Ryan Rowland-Smith 67.0 307 14.7% 11.1% .293 5.24 5.27 132 133 Alex Sanabia 72.0 325 12.0% 7.4% .294 5.50 5.51 139 139 Brett Lorin 77.0 349 12.3% 8.6% .295 5.49 5.44 139 137 Adam Russell 50.7 244 13.9% 16.0% .296 5.33 5.53 135 140 Garrett Mock 61.7 290 14.5% 12.8% .294 5.69 5.86 144 148 Warner Madrigal 57.3 263 17.9% 12.2% .293 5.34 5.45 135 138 Nelson Figueroa 40.0 192 8.3% 10.9% .299 6.97 6.77 176 171 AJ Schugel 98.3 463 12.7% 11.9% .298 6.04 5.97 152 151 Steve Garrison 71.7 330 10.6% 7.3% .297 6.66 6.44 168 163 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Patrick Corbin 201.7 7.45 2.32 0.85 111 3.5 Tom Glavine Wade Miley 186.7 6.56 2.55 0.87 103 2.7 Mark Thurmond Trevor Cahill 178.3 6.61 3.48 0.86 97 2.1 Jim Beattie Brandon McCarthy 137.7 5.82 1.57 0.92 96 1.6 Ron Reed Archie Bradley 130.0 6.58 4.02 0.83 91 1.1 Brian Holman Addison Reed 70.0 9.64 2.44 0.77 122 0.8 Robb Nen Josh Collmenter 78.0 8.31 2.54 0.92 117 0.8 Geoff Geary David Hernandez 68.0 10.46 3.44 0.93 118 0.7 Kyle Farnsworth Brad Ziegler 61.3 6.02 2.79 0.59 121 0.7 Tom Ferrick J.J. Putz 42.0 9.64 2.79 0.86 122 0.6 Lee Smith Andrew Chafin 133.0 6.09 4.53 0.88 84 0.5 Jimmy Anderson Daniel Hudson 48.3 6.71 2.24 1.12 91 0.4 Mark Knudson Will Harris 60.7 8.90 3.41 0.89 105 0.3 Steve Andrade Matt Reynolds 42.7 8.43 2.53 0.84 109 0.3 Bobby Seay Randall Delgado 153.0 6.71 3.35 1.47 80 0.2 Roy Smith Joe Thatcher 30.7 8.50 2.93 0.88 102 0.1 Lance Painter Jake Barrett 53.7 7.21 2.51 1.01 97 0.1 Dan Giese Tony Sipp 51.3 8.95 4.04 1.23 97 0.1 Greg McCarthy Marcos Mateo 34.7 7.26 4.15 0.78 94 0.0 Gregg Olson Joe Paterson 47.0 7.09 3.45 0.96 93 0.0 Matt Dunbar Charles Brewer 120.7 5.74 2.91 1.34 78 0.0 Bobby Chouinard Chase Anderson 77.7 6.14 3.24 1.27 78 0.0 Steffen Majer Matt Langwell 68.0 6.62 4.50 0.66 92 -0.1 Mike Bumstead Matt Stites 48.0 7.31 2.06 1.31 91 -0.1 Kevin Crafton Zeke Spruill 130.3 4.42 3.59 1.04 78 -0.1 Jake Dittler Bo Schultz 63.3 4.98 4.12 1.00 79 -0.2 Marty McLeary David Pauley 41.3 5.01 3.05 1.09 78 -0.3 Todd Williams Jess Todd 59.3 6.68 4.40 1.06 83 -0.4 Ryan Baker Eury de la Rosa 63.3 7.54 4.12 1.28 83 -0.4 Kevin Foster Ryan Rowland-Smith 67.0 6.04 4.57 1.21 75 -0.4 Dan Smith Alex Sanabia 72.0 4.88 3.00 1.63 71 -0.4 Brandon Emanuel Brett Lorin 77.0 5.03 3.51 1.40 71 -0.7 Kevin Vent Adam Russell 50.7 6.04 6.92 0.89 73 -0.7 Jerry Johnson Garrett Mock 61.7 6.13 5.40 1.46 69 -0.8 Mike Sullivan Warner Madrigal 57.3 7.38 5.03 1.41 73 -0.8 Jim Dedrick Nelson Figueroa 40.0 3.60 4.73 1.80 56 -1.0 Michael Riley AJ Schugel 98.3 5.40 5.04 1.46 65 -1.3 Nick Skuse Steve Garrison 71.7 4.39 3.01 2.13 59 -1.6 Tommy Phelps *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.