Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/22/16 by Carson Cistulli February 22, 2016 12:11 Dan Szymborski: Hey guys! Sorry I’m late, Time-Warner was doing some work on the block and I was internetless for a few hours. 12:11 Dan Szymborski: Uh oh, it appears to be just me. 12:17 Testing: How many wins will the Twins have? 12:17 Dan Szymborski: I have him in mid 70s, but they could be higher. 12:17 hscer: What is “System and Compressed Memory” and why is it such a jerk to my RAM and disk drive? 12:18 Dan Szymborski: Can you send me the whole image of yoru RAM usage on Twitter or something? 12:18 rock: How do you see Adam Wainwright rebounding this year? I know his K rate has been declining but he’s rumored to be bringing back his change up. 12:18 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine. 12:18 rustydude: I know you don’t make decisions for the site, but have you heard anything from David A on when the Zips projections get attached to player profiles? 12:18 Dan Szymborski: David’s not why they aren’t up – I haven’t submitted updates. I’ve been working on projects the last two weeks and haven’t updated all the new teams. 12:21 HappyFunBall: so how many ZIPS projections are left? 12:21 Dan Szymborski: None, I just need to update the players that switched teams. 12:21 Sigmund: How much of a chance Correa ISN’T the best SS in 2016? 12:22 Dan Szymborski: Even if he’s the best going forward, in any given year, somebody can beat him, like Lindor or someone. 12:23 Cory S.: Danny boy, which of Elias, Owens, or Johnson seem most likely to be the main lefty out of the Red Sox’ BP? 12:23 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think any of those 3 will be the primary 12:24 hey: i like your last name 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Thanks? 12:24 RMR: How much crossover do you see between the sports geeks and the gaming geeks? I have been enjoying your Hearthstone coverage over at ESPN and got to thinking that the data/gaming geek type is probably pretty common. 12:25 Dan Szymborski: There’s quite a bit of crossover 12:25 rustydude: If I remember right, you have a fan rooting interest in the Orioles. What do you see as a ceiling this year for Jonathan Schoop and his prodigious power? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be shocked if he slugged .500 and had an OBP below .300. 12:25 B: What’s your view on Maikel Franco? Is he overhyped? 12:26 Dan Szymborski: To an extent in that he’s unlikely to really be a star, but he ought to be a fixture for a long time. 12:26 Lennny: Jays have a shot at 90 wins? 12:26 Dan Szymborski: Every team in the AL has *some* shot at 90, though some longer than others. Blue Jays are still in the top half 12:26 j6takish: My cat is a jerk. We had pretty good luck spraying him with a mister when he was being bad but now ow he quit giving a shit, I’ll spray him directly in the face and he will just go back to clawing me with water dripping everywhere 12:27 Richard: I saw some optimistic news about C. Martinez last week. Any health related thoughts about him & Wacha ? Thanks 12:27 Dan Szymborski: Oops didn’t answer first one. 12:27 Dan Szymborski: Not doing a Lightning Round since I’m short on time because of the cable issues 12:28 Dan Szymborski: (I started late, but my post-1:00 PM appointments can’t move forward too) 12:28 Dan Szymborski: So just shoot questions about whatever, but not too crazy (at least have a basis for thinking I can answer) 12:28 Dan Szymborski: Punishments works poorly with cats. Redirection works better. 12:28 Dan Szymborski: Like if they want to scratch a particular couch, put a new scratching post there and spray it with catnip scent and slowly mvoe the scratching post elsewhere as they get used to using it 12:29 Dan Szymborski: Spraying a cat doens’ tmake them not doing something, it makes them think you’re an ass and they’ll still do the behavior when you’re not around 12:29 daneyko: Miguel Sano or Hunter Pence – 2016 only 12:29 Dan Szymborski: Sano 12:29 fan3: Do you think any prospects are overhyped? 12:30 Dan Szymborski: Of course. There’s never a point at which I (or anyone) is going to exactly agree with consensus. 12:31 PAR: But what is the estimate for when will ZiPS be ready? (I’m only asking for an estimate) 12:31 Dan Szymborski: When ti’s ready guys. This is a big project time of year for me! 12:31 Sirras: Name one player you legitimately think showed up to spring training in the best shape of his life 12:32 Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked at everybody’s shape, nor do I frequently even notice unless they’re particular fit or unfit 12:32 Dan Szymborski: Lucroy reportedly did a lot of offseason work though 12:32 The_Oncoming_Ace: Is the Boston media blowing Sandoval’s weight problem completely out of proportion or is it a legitimate concern? 12:33 Dave: Are you going to be submitting a list of projections that fell through the cracks? For instance, Vincent Velasquez was not on the Phillies when their zips were released and not on the Astros when theirs was. 12:33 Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s natural to look for a reason why he sucked so much. 12:33 Dan Szymborski: If it wasn’t his shape that did it, then he just kinda sucks. 12:33 Dan Szymborski: Vincent Velasquez PHI R 37 4 4 3.79 25 13 78.3 68 35 33 9 33 93 4 41% 4 10 0 0 99 1.1 12:34 FA ??: who are best remaining free agents? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Fowler most notable 12:35 Sirras: Build an offensive catcher using one player’s contact ability, one player’s power, one player’s speed (lol), and one player’s goofiness (a good catcher should be goofy in my opinion) 12:37 Dan Szymborski: Posey, Schwarber (hey, I’m not taking his C defense), uhhh Hundley? Norris? Martin? (not a lot of great choices). I’m just infusing Patton Oswalt’s goofiness because he’s catcher worthy 12:37 Sirras: Gun to your head, why am I holding a gun to the head of a baseball writer of some repute? 12:37 Dan Szymborski: Emotional issues? 12:37 Matt: What would baseball be like if all teams were publicly traded corporations? 12:38 Dan Szymborski: Probably not all that much different – Indians were publicly traded for awhile 12:38 Alex: Can ZIPS project future minor league stats? Say a prospect is in AA, could ZIPS project him in AAA, or just in the majors? I noticed that Baseball Prospectus 2016 couldn’t. I wanted to read about Anderson Espinoza’s projections in the high minors. 12:39 Dan Szymborski: I *could* but I’d have to set it up differently 12:39 Bill: Is this the year Yelich breaks double-digit home runs? 12:39 Dan Szymborski: I think so 12:39 Sirras: How amused are you that Lupe Fiasco beat Daigo in Street Fighter V? 12:39 Dan Szymborski: I was amused, though I dont’ know much about the variability of SF results. 12:40 Matt: Yu Darvish threw 113 pitches in 4 innings in his last start before going down. Is there evidence or research that 113 pitches is worse on the arm for 4 innings instead of say 7, 8, or 9? 12:40 Dan Szymborski: There may be but I haven’t seen it 12:40 Sirras: On a scale of 1 to 10, how much longer do we have until the cats murder us all? 12:40 Dan Szymborski: 3. We’re clearly giving them what they demand. 12:40 Matt: You think Wil Myers can play a whole season of baseball now that he’ll be consistently at firstbase? 12:40 Dan Szymborski: I think so 12:40 Sean : Can you provide a ZiPS for Shelby Miller? It’s not provided on either ATL/ARI’s pages. 12:40 Dan Szymborski: Ah, but I did on Twitter! Which is why you should follow me! 12:41 Dan Szymborski: And looking at it, it was in the ZiPS rundown for Arizona 12:41 Steve: I find it interesting that ZIPS and Steamer project Machado’s HR total in the high 20s while PECOTA says low 20s (it’s basically his last 3 seasons HR/PAs). What does ZIPS see that PECOTA doesn’t to indicate his breakout is here to stay? 12:41 Dan Szymborski: That would involve me knowing why PECOTA doesn’t like him as much. 12:42 Dan Szymborski: It’s like asking me why I like pizza more than Lee Strasberg. I know why I like pizza, but without knowing Lee Strasberg’s opinions on pizza and why, I can’t say why I like pizza more than him. 12:42 Alex: Reminder that Sandoval looked like this here in SF too. Winning just made the fans over look it 12:42 Luke: If Schoop slugged .500 or more and had an OBP below .300 it would be a truly amazing feat. Only 2 seasons like that have ever occurred in MLB history. Dave Kingman in 1976 and Mike Jacobs in 2008. 12:42 Dan Szymborski: But he *could* though. 12:42 Q-Ball: White Sox bring Jimmy Rollins to camp on a NRI…..I really like that move for them, thoughts? 12:43 Dan Szymborski: Decent but they should only be interested in him in a reserve role – be more ambitious 12:43 PS: What is your favorite individual pitch? 12:43 Dan Szymborski: Knuckle-curve. Because Mussina. 12:43 2-D: Who is the first manager to get fired this season? 12:45 Dan Szymborski: Ausmus still can’t feel safe. 12:45 Joe: If you want goofiness from an actual MLB catcher, Cervelli is an 80 grade goofball 12:45 Sammy: I saw that OOTP is officially using ZIPS as their rating system. Just wanted to say congrats and say how excited I am for this! 12:45 Nick: I didn’t know you were such a big piece of OOTP. Thanks for helping put together a great game… you digital dandy 12:45 Dan Szymborski: It’s just the underlyign ratings. 12:45 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is more extensive a part of Diamond Mind. 12:45 Pat: Do you think Starlin Castro can revert back to 2014 form? 12:45 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he can be a 2 WAR player 12:45 Matt: Chances Bonds becomes a manager any time soon? 12:45 Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t seem the managerial type 12:46 Dan Szymborski: He knows hitting more than any man alive though 12:46 Fart McGonigle: Does Odor hit 25 bombs this year or is this another situation where a player got hot for a couple months? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: 25 is a little aggressive but I think he’ll still hit homers 12:46 andrewp: why should I be said I can’t drink $8 natty boh cans anymore? 12:47 Dan Szymborski: You shouldn’t. Mr. Boh is a cultural icon, but his beer is not very good 12:47 Jon Snow: What is your favorite TV Show? 12:47 Dan Szymborski: It’s Always Sunny 12:48 Joe: Perhaps I *don’t* want to see this one but… was there a Vogelsong ZiPS posted anywhere? If not, you can either provide it here or just post a poop emoji to spare me the pain of knowing. 12:48 Dan Szymborski: Ryan Vogelsong PIT R 38 7 9 4.57 27 21 124.0 130 67 63 14 46 90 12:48 PieTraynee: Gregory Polanco hits the ball hard more than most players, yet those hard hit balls dropped for hits considerably less often than what is generally expected last season. Do you see the low babip on hard hit balls correcting itself and him having a breakout season? What sort of slashline would we be looking at if it did? 12:48 Dan Szymborski: I think he has good breakout odds. 12:48 MATT: Why do you ignore the huge risks in the Cubs offseason moves? Zobrist could easily breakdown due to his age. Heyward was widely seen as a huge overpay and he is moving to a position CF that he has never played. Lackey was cheap because of the big age risk also. “Perfect” offseason seems lie it needs a lot to dream on. 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Zobrist could, but his salary reflects that risk – if he had been 28 he’d be paid a lot more. 12:50 Dan Szymborski: An incredibly athletic RF who has played CF playing CF isn’t like trying to turn Jon Papelbon into a social worker 12:50 Dan Szymborski: And again, Lackey’s price reflects that risk. 12:50 Gary: Do you have old versions of ZIPs saved? Or is the whole thing version controlled? 12:50 Dan Szymborski: Yes 12:50 Jack: Do you think Swanson will be a fantasy stud one day? 12:50 Dan Szymborski: I think the odds are good. 12:50 CamdenWarehouse: The can’t find the plate ceremonial first pitch is clearly the best individual pitch. 12:51 Jon: Who has the most underrated rotation? 12:52 Dan Szymborski: Might actually be the Dodgers – a shocking number of people think they’re horrible after Kershaw 12:52 CamdenWarehouse: How bad will Galladro in Baltimore be? is league average the best we can hope for? 12:52 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t expect more than that 12:52 Sean : Have you ever heard of or played Dwarf Fortress? Why did I just discover this amazing game last week? 12:52 Dan Szymborski: I have only watched others play. It looks like the type of game that would cause me to break things. 12:52 Kylo Ren: HAVE YOU PLAYED FIREWATCH 12:52 Dan Szymborski: I have not. 12:52 Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Have you seen The Witch? It’s pretty good as long as two teenage girls aren’t talking and sitting on their phones the entire time…..why does that happen every time I go to the movies? Have I done something to deserve this? 12:52 Dan Szymborski: I have also not. 12:53 Nati Brews: Have you ever been to Rhinegeist, Listermann, and/or MadTree? Thoughts? Favorites? 12:53 Dan Szymborski: I have been to Rhinegeist but not the others. I’m not in Cincy enough to be a Cincy beer location expert. 12:54 Rob: If the White Sox have another bad season, do you think they start selling off pieces like Quintana, Abreu, maybe Eaton to start a rebuild? And should they? 12:54 Dan Szymborski: I think if they need to rebuild, it wouldn’t start until 2017 12:54 Alex: I like your chats Dan bc they feel much more live than other writer’s chats. Their chats are basically “put all you questions in a queue and come back later to see if it was answered”. It feels more like a mailbag. Here I can ask a question in chat and see it answered. Keep up the good work 12:54 Dan Szymborski: I still can’t answer anywhere near all of them because you guys are so quick and ask so many things 12:54 Dan Szymborski: But I try to answer as many as I can, though it sometimes involves me being veyr off the cuff 12:55 Dan Szymborski: chats are fast and furious! 12:55 Luke: It could be hypothesized that Dan Duquette uses the MAC system in regards to free agency. 12:55 Dan Szymborski: For those unaware, that means [M]ove in [A]fter [C]ompletion 12:55 Dan Szymborski: Then the Reds get the scraps. 12:55 Ian Desmond: Where will I land? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: Airport presumably 12:56 Greike old man: Who’s the Cards’ ace in two years? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: Martinez 12:56 j6takish: Would the dbacks had been better off had they just called swanson up out of A-ball to play 2nd? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: That’s a little aggressive. 12:56 Matt: One trade that you really think should happen 12:56 Dan Szymborski: $50 million to me. 12:56 Jon: Liberty Media is planning on IPO’ing the Braves (re: publicly traded baseball teams) 12:57 iron wolf: If you were the GM of Baltimore, would you part with two picks to get Gallardo and Fowler (assuming the latter happens)? The farm system is somewhat barren. 12:57 Dan Szymborski: The O’s are in a very awkward position, truthfully. 12:58 Dan Szymborski: They’ve spent $150 million just to get the roster back to last season’s quality. 12:58 Jon Papelbon, Social Worker: Your father drinks because you’re such a failure. 12:59 Zonk: Help me understand League of Legends. My 19-year old stepson plays it all the time. 12:59 Dan Szymborski: Cartoon heroes with different powers are trying to destroy the other team’s glowy crystal thing. THere’s more to it than that, but that’s essentially the purpose 12:59 rustydude: Here’s a counter opinion to a prevoius rec of The Witch. It was rather tedious and the lack of subtitles with the Old English dialogue made it difficult sit through. 12:59 Rudy: Why is Streamer so low on Sonny Gray this year. They have his WHIP at 1.30? 12:59 Kyle: what are your thoughts on adjusting “system” projections for individual players for fantasy purposes? how much time do you spend at the individual player level when updating ZiPS ? 12:59 Dan Szymborski: You need to ask the Steamer guys! 12:59 Dan Szymborski: I don’t adjust the base projections 1:00 Voyeur: Will you be live broadcasting your drafts as you did last year 1:00 Dan Szymborski: Possibly 1:00 Sean : Say you become wealthy and decide to become a venture capitalist. What is your investment philosophy? 1:00 Dan Szymborski: Not be a venture capitalist. I’m past the age where I want to deal with stress. 1:01 Steve: at what point do the Dodgers ignore the money (Crawford/Ethier) and go with the better players (Van Slyke/Thompson)? 1:01 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Crawford be expensively unemployed sometime this summer. 1:01 Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, I really have to go 1:02 Dan Szymborski: Sorry for the abbreviated chat guys, add something to your personal Time-Warner grudge list!