Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/2/23

Dan Szymborski: It’s chat time, hopefully!

Dan Szymborski: I was a little late setting it up becasue I was giving my mom a ride to pick up her car from the mechanic

Dan Szymborski: Seems to be on the front page and I see questions, so cautiously optimistic!

Walla Walla Ron Washington: Hey Dan! So where are we on the whole ‘lineup protection’ question. A few years ago, didn’t a lot of analysis show that it basically doesn’t exist in the traditional way we think about? Yet I still hear many folks cite it constantly. Has there been any new data?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen anyone tackle this in a new way for quite a while, simply because the studies weren’t in the middle

Dan Szymborski: It was pretty clear that the protection that appears to exist is what’s called “Weak protection” meaning, that in extreme cases of difference in ability, intentional walks go up

Dan Szymborski: The argument never dies because it’s superficially alluring and difficult to disprove.

De-Lux: With Lux going down, should the O’s finally trade Mateo for some pitching?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like it’s an obvious upgrade from Rojas

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Dodgers are particularly motivated to make a move at short as long as both Rojas and Taylor are healthy

Dan Szymborski: Now, put them in a situation in which Bryson Brigman is suddenly the starter and I think the team would react differently

Curtis Mead: How much did missing the last 2 months in AAA (and potentially MLB debut) hurt me in terms of projections and overall ZT100?

Dan Szymborski: Shouldn’t be that much. A few spots at most.

OakTreeStatus: Let’s say 1) Brendan Rodgers is out for the season and 2) Rockies fans courageously continue to find the will to live. What *should* the Rockies do at 2B? McMahon?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably want to see if McMahon is open to it. He’s a really good 3B with 2B experience.

Dan Szymborski: But in truth, it probably doesn’t make a difference

Dan Szymborski: In this case, then you could get a look at Nolan Jones at third

Dan Szymborski: I mean, what’s the worst that could happen, the Rockies not win many games?

Dan Szymborski: But the Rockies never choose even the very slightly creative route, they’ll just stuff whatever they have at 2nd and shrug

Todd Bonzalez: After that interview on CN  the other night, how many people out there think Dan Szymborski (a.k.a  “AI Extraordinaire”) is the inventor of the AI?

Dan Szymborski: Probably some, unfortunately

Dan Szymborski: But they got my credit right! I’m annoyed that the Daily Mail only mentioned my old ESPN gig, not FanGraphs

Zach: Gotta absolutely feel for Gavin Lux. Were you bullish on him coming into the year? He reportedly had gained 6 mph to his bat speed and put on 15lbs.

Dan Szymborski: I was relatively bullish, as was ZiPS. Not that he’d be a star, but a solid B+ dude

Dan Szymborski: The whole presidents CNN thing was bad timing because it was right when I was finishing my list and getting my piece ready and it all basically distracted me for a day and broke my Twitter timeline

Dan Szymborski: But I did get a wonderful image to use out-of-context out of the it

Dan Szymborski: out of it

Dan Szymborski:

Boids: When ZIPS don’t know how well a Cardinal is going to do does it just fill in 3 WAR and call it a day?

Dan Szymborski: 2.6

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen this gag in my chat for a while!

Walton Dilcox: Have shoulder dislocations ever been so common in the sport?

Walton Dilcox: I’m stunned by the number of dislocated shoulders lately among MLB and MiLB players. Have these always been so common?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, actually

Dan Szymborski: I think some of the difference in injuries is how things are reported

Dan Szymborski: Like I’m pretty sure shoulder capsules didn’t just evolve into humans born in the 90s, but you never heard about that issue before like 2014

Scott C: What skill set regressed or not progressed for Orelvis Martinez to drop so far?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, you gotta ask Eric and Tess for that one!

Dan Szymborski: I’m the ZiPS guy and Orelvis most certainly did not drop!

Oaktown Blues: Hi Dan, I know this is an Eric question, but since you’re the one chatting, do you know what happened with the “prospect limbo” article? Was originally slated for Friday of prospect week, then pushed to Monday, then nothing

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I don’t know the schedule

Merciless Pepper of Quetzalacatenango:

1. Are merciless peppers acceptable to you in chili?
2. The way they’ve pushed chips onto the table, how much sense would it make for the Padres to trade for at least a mid-rotation starter to avoid rushing Musgrove back?

Dan Szymborski:

1. They are, but a combination of GERD and just general aging mean I can’t handle the hot stuff to the same degree I used to, so I have to be careful
2. It makes sense, but they cupboard is increasingly bare in the farm system; they’ve made a LOT of prospect trades

Dan Szymborski: There’s no 3, it automatically numbered it

Chippy: Do you side with ZiPS or the prospect team on rankings for Noelvi Marte? Asking as a neurotic Mariners fan.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll take ZiPS on this one

Walton Dilcox: What does ZiPs like about Richard Gallardo (Cubs)? Positive WAR projection over 109 innings isn’t half bad for a 21 YO with 1 AA start

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d call that a positive projection!

Dan Szymborski: But he has decent control and keeps the ball down, so he can only be SO bad

Oaktown Blues: How superlative would a spring training performance have to be for you to consider it to have predictive value? Like if a guy hit 15 HR in 50 spring training PA would you consider changing your opinion of their true talent level?

Dan Szymborski: I probably would

Dan Szymborski: Spring training does have a very tiny bit of predictive value. Dan Rosenheck demonstrated this

Dan Szymborski: But I think the slight gain in accuracy isn’t worth everyone having all the projections change the day before the season

Adam: If the Dodgers suddenly became motivated to upgrade at short, what do you think it would take to get Rosario from Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski: A lot. Yes, he’s a free agent after the season, but Cleveland isn’t a slam dunk in the AL Central. I don’t think the Guardians just want to turn the position over to Tyler Freeman unless they have a REALLY good reason to

RobertoBeers: A man A Dan A Chat about how to project shoulder injury recovery, revocer yrujni redluohs tcejorp ot woh tuoba tahc anadanama

Geoff: No question Dan, just thank you for your optimistic view of the young Redlegs. I’m excited for the future

Dan Szymborski: There was a lot of doom and gloom in the piece for an optimistic piece! lol

Guest: Do you think what Preller and Seidler have done is sustainable?

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky. I suspect they really are running mildly negative margins now, especially with the TV revenues up in the air

Dan Szymborski: So I don’t know just how far Seidler is willing to go. The Padres still need pitching long-term and I can’t see them running a $350 million payroll

KB: Does the WBC provide any value for projecting international players? And could you provide projections for every random player from every country just for fun?

Dan Szymborski: I looked briefly, but it isn’t enough data to really be  helpful

Appa Yip Yip: If you threw one (1) pitch to Aaron Judge, how far would the resultant home run go?

Dan Szymborski: Who says it’s going to be anywhere near the strike zone?

Dan Szymborski: Assuming I can still throw my shitty palmball, I’m tossing that low and outside

Guest: French fries, freedom fries, or a mixture?

Dan Szymborski: French fries unless the AP is involved

Dan Szymborski: Then I guess it’s Fries of Belgian Descent that Claim to be from the Nation-State of France

GBS42: I’m heading to Florida in a couple of weeks to see some spring training games.  Thankfully, there are some Skyline Chili locations in the state so I can get my fix.

Dan Szymborski: Oh god, they’ve gone that far?

Ted: does it get more likely each day that Jordan Walker is going to be a corner outfielder on the Cardinals opening day roster?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’ snot getting less likely

Oaktown Blues: Was a bit surprised not to see Esteury Ruiz on the ZiPS top 100 as one of the top performers in the minors last year stats-wise. Is that due to his underwhelming previous seasons, or some peripherals I’m overlooking? And are you willing to share what his actual ranking was according to ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: He was 136

Dan Szymborski: and lot is the underwhelming previous seasons

Dan Szymborski: and minor league walks don’t translate as nicely as people think

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t going to complete ignore that it saw him as a .215/.278/.341 hitter in 2021

ZIPpers: Do you think it’s even remotely realistic for Atlanta to cobble together ~2 war out of whatever LF arrangement they end up with? Is their end of year LF on the roster right now?

Dan Szymborski: I like the Braves a lot (and ZiPS does too!) but I’m not optimistic about left

Chippy: How do you account for the unexpected levels of “motivation” that teams have shown in giving long-term deals to Machado and the free agent middle infielders? Are teams seeing the game’s financial structure in a way that we’re not yet seeing, or are they doing nutty stuff that will cost them in the long run?

Dan Szymborski: Well, in ZiPS I don’t

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of tea leaf reading involved here

Dan Szymborski: And I’m not sure what we’re seeing is a real sea change

Dan Szymborski: Fact is, you had the first normal offseason in years – post-2020 still had COVID uncertainty and a year of empty stadiums and post-2021 had the lockout

Dan Szymborski: You had everybody getting an extra bonus in the form of the streaming media sale

Dan Szymborski: You had the luxury tax threshold take a relatively large bump up (and the only large bump up)

RobertoBeers: But more seriously, are the ZiPS projeciton error bars associated with shoulder injury outcomes the greatest of the variuos joints? How different are those error bars for hitters/pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: Shoulder is the worst flag a pitcher can get

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Good morning Dan the Zipser. Have you ever murdered random stragglers passing through your neck of the woods? -not the FBI

Dan Szymborski: Hey, things happen

Adam: Which team currently projected to win its division do you think is most likely to finish fourth?

Dan Szymborski: Cleveland maybe? I think it’s a very low chance, of course

Dan Szymborski: MAYBE the Yankees if the division is very strong?

David: Have you heard of anyone testing out AI in fantasy drafts? I would love to see how it stacks up against some of the experts.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t, simply because it’s hard to get an AI all caught up

Appa Yip Yip: What does ZiPS think Matt Chapman gets in free agency? The position player options are thin next year.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks 5/113

Daniel P McGood-Boy: Do you run projections on players that are no longer rookie eligible for possible break out candidates?

Dan Szymborski: I run projections on everyone!

Daniel P McGood-Boy: Does Gallo bounceback?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s possible

Dan Szymborski: He’s not ancient

Adam: Better odds this year: Bryce Harper plays 300 innings in the outfield, or Mookie Betts plays 1 inning at shortstop?

Dan Szymborski: latter

Daniel P McGood-Boy: Mike Trout has slugged over .600 the last 6 years.  Did Zips predict that?

Dan Szymborski: I would guess no – as of 2017 he hadn’t yet slugged .600

Dan Szymborski: But I’m checking

Dan Szymborski: Nope, I’m wrong

Dan Szymborski: entering 2017, ZiPS projected Trout to hit .303/.437/.618 from 2017-2022

Dan Szymborski: with an OPS+ of 170

Dan Szymborski: He hit .299/.428/.630 with an OPS+ of 185

mike: the prospect limbo article was cancelled (probably) because there weren’t’ enough dudes (saw on Twitter, Dan might want to follow his editor there)

Dan Szymborski: It’s very easy to miss things on Twitter!

Limozeen: ZIPS seems a bit higher on the A’s than other projection systems. This is especially glaring when you look at ZIPS odds compared to the fangraphs playoff odds (72 wins, 6.1% playoffs vs 68 wins and 0.1% playoffs)

Dan Szymborski: This is a depressing level of optimism

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS generally believes in the A’s ability to trout out infinite fourth starters

Dan Szymborski: trot

Dan Szymborski: Which keeps the pain from being too bad

Adam: Which of the new rules do you think will be the first to be revised/tweaked/scrapped?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine there will be some adjustment to pitch clock rules at some point

Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t think it’ll be scrapped

comish4lif: Do you think that the new rules will increase stolen bases? If so, how much: 1%, 5%, 10%, more?!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the confidence to specify

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say some, but less than AAA

comish4lif: Lineup protection at the MLB level. Can I posit that it is hard to measure because in the end – they are all competent major league hitters?

Dan Szymborski: True, but if they’re all competent, then protection can’t exist anyway

Limozeen: How many bases does Esteury Ruiz have to steal to make the A’s a playoff team

Dan Szymborski: Just one if it’s coinbase. Whether it’s trustworthy or not, it still has more assets than the A’s do

comish4lif: 15 homers in Spring Training? I’d want to know which pitchers surrendered the homers.

Ned Buntline’s Hairline: In the same vein as the WBC question, have you looked into whether winter league performance has any predictive value, e.g. Dominican, Venezuelan, etc.?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve found it too noisy

Dan Szymborski: But that doesn’t mean that someone hasn’t found an approach that I have not

Yuniesky Betancourt: Who’s your pick to lead the majors in steals this year?

Dan Szymborski: I COULD see Ruiz lead the leageu actually

Zac Lowther of the Hill People: Who is this year’s ZiPS golden child that personally befuddles you the most?

Dan Szymborski: Dean Kremer, but I won’t object if ZiPS is right

Zac Lowther of the Hill People: What was the one offseason move that the O’s should have done but sadly did not?

Dan Szymborski: RODON

Adam: More likely: Astros miss the playoffs, or Marlins make it?

Dan Szymborski: number two

Greg: I assume that “AP” meant Associated Press, rather than a running back who whipped his child with a shoestring potato.

JC: Whenever I look at MLB projections for prospects in the low minors, I feel like they’re usually very low — which is understandable. How many seasons of solid production in the minors does it take for a prospect to start turning up league average or better projections? Is there a threshold?

Dan Szymborski: There’s not really a convenient threshold I can give you

comish4lif: Are we to believe that when Sinclair went belly up a dozen+ MLB teams were unprepared and surprised?

Dan Szymborski: Never underestimate the incompetence of baseball teams.

Don Von Handburger: Who wrote the Pink Letter?

Dan Szymborski: Ramsay Bolton? Is that up for debate?

Dan Szymborski: It’s been a billion years since Martin’s last novel

Todd Bonzalez: What will you do when Cincinnati makes its way to the national stage? Thinking along the lines Detroit-style pizza and Nashville Hot Chicken.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t imagine the WHEN is applicable

Limozeen: Has anyone ever told you that you look like Hans Gruber

Dan Szymborski: I’m too fat for that

Dan Szymborski: Someone once emailed me to tell me that I looked like a cross between Shrek and Göring, which is probably fair

Dan Szymborski: I’ve also been told that I look like the lead singer of Of Monsters and Men (the guy)

Dan Szymborski: and Michael Chernus

John: Looking towards the next 2-3 year window, who do you have leading your Starting rotation, Luis Castillo or Kevin Gausman?

Dan Szymborski: Castillo and I like Guzman

Dan Szymborski: Gausman

Dan Szymborski: Guzman?

Dan Szymborski: WTF Dan

Morbo: ZiPS has detected a threat to the creator. Threat protocol activated: MilwaukeeBeerJays has been added to threat list. Countermeasures activated. IP trace activated. IP acquired. Address trace activated. Address acquired. Drones deployed. Waiting. Waiting. Waiting. Threat, MilwaukeeBeerJays, has been eliminated.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: We are thinking of getting a cat. I’ve heard that getting 2 can be good so they can keep each other company. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Two is good, especially if it’s a bonded pair

Dan Szymborski: I would strongly recommend getting two whenever possible

Dan Szymborski: Cats are better adjusted when they have their friend

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Oh and we are going to name our cat – Cat Stevens

Dan Szymborski: Cats aren’t as solitary as people think

Dan Szymborski: With a pair, there’s less anxiety when you leave the house

Dan Szymborski: and they learn things from each other

Dan Szymborski: (usually bad things)

Don Von Handburger: There should be an awards show for projection systems – The Projees

Bardo Bill: You were suprisingly forgiving of the Padres for signing Machado to a $350 million contract when ZiPS says he’ll only be worth about half of that. Your argument seemed to be mainly that it’s fun for the fans when teams take big swings (metaphorically speaking), and that it’s “cynical” to try to merely eke into the playoffs, even if that’s the rationally maximizing move. But I don’t get this at all – if I were a Padres fan I’d be tearing my hair out over the Bogaerts/Machado deals, knowing the team is going to screwed for a good 6 or 7 years starting in the not terribly distant future. Why is it cynical to plan for the long term?

Dan Szymborski: Basically, because Seidler knows better than I just what his willingness to absorb is

Cat Latos: Projector Szym, how do my cat frens do?

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is on my office couch sleeping

Dan Szymborski: Last I saw Constantine, he was pacing near the kitchen becuase he’s angling for wet food

Dan Szymborski: he turned up his nose at yesterday’s offering, so he’s extra hungry today and he’s going to have a wait (they don’t get it until four)

Dan Szymborski: I believe Justinian’s rough-housing with Mercutio on the stairs right now. Only one cat is jingling (Mercutio doesn’t wear a collar). If Constantine was fighting with Mercutio, there’d be hissing, because he starts rough-housing and then hisses as soon as he’s losing

Dan Szymborski: And Justinian and Constantine usually lose rough-housing matches to Mercutio. Mercutio’s gentle and dumb, but he’s always large, which is very effective. The catlets are better matches for each other usually

Don Von Handburger: How often do you stop in at the Fangraphs clubhouse, and play some foosball with the guys and gals?

Dan Szymborski: WAIT WE HAVE A CLUBHOUSE?

Zac Lowther of the Hill People: In what 2 cities would you put expansion teams?

Dan Szymborski: Perfect world no teams blocking?

Dan Szymborski: Charlotte and another in the NYC area

Wireless Joe Jackson: Hades is still the best video game of the last five years.  Fight me.

Dan Szymborski: I still haven’t played it!

Tito: Upcoming day trip to Cincinnati this season for a Reds game (first time ever). Any recommendations?

Dan Szymborski: For one, no chili

Dan Szymborski: Park in Newport KY and walk across the pedestrian bridge

Dan Szymborski: Grab something at Moerlein or go to the Hofbräuhaus in Newport; they can stuff in a LOT of drinkers

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Buy a sous vide dan. BUY ONE

Adam: Which country that’s never hosted an MLB game would you be most excited to see get a chance?

Dan Szymborski: Dominican Republic

Insert Witty Name Here: I always loved the lineup protection question. Here’s my uneducated thought process.  It needs to be discussed in a game theory way.  If it’s a blowout game or a in the first 6 innings, it probably wouldn’t matter who’s hitting behind someone. But when the stakes matter and the game is on the line, the manager will assess who is hitting behind the current hitter. So if Judge is at bat, and Joey Bagodonuts is hitting behind him, Judge is going to get walked because he has no protection.  But if he has a better hitter behind him, Judge will get pitched to. So in my opinion, lineup protection matters, but only in few enough situations where it doesn’t really matter where you would find any statistical proof.

Dan Szymborski: But you’re basically talking weak protection, which *is* a proven thing

RC: What’s up with the discrepancy btwn playoff odds and ZiPS projected standings in the NL West?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t run the FanGraphs ones so I don’t know. Combo of Steamer and different methodology

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure ZiPS punishes the Padres rotation depth more than the FG method

Definitely not the ghost Dostoyevsky: What’s your favorite Russian novel?

Dan Szymborski: War and Peace

Dan Szymborski: My horde main in WoW is named Dolokhov

Punk: Has anyone ever told you that you look like Louis CK

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been told that

Adam: What’s the worst TV show you’ve seen every episode of?

Dan Szymborski: The Increasingly Poor Decisions of Todd Margaret

Dan Szymborski: I love David Cross work, but this show never really connected with me

Dan Szymborski: and it just seemed too inconsistent

Dan: I have never seen the words Skyline Chili in print anywhere but fangraphs. I’ve never heard it spoken anywhere. How does it feel to be 100% of their marketing to this New Englander?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think all marketing is good marketing!

Key Flaw: Heck, let’s expand every division. In what SIX cities would you put expansions (one for each division)?

Dan Szymborski: JFC

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to put the second NY team in the AL East, since Charlotte makes more sense if Marlins and Braves are in teh division

Dan Szymborski: I guess Las Vegas in NLW and Portland in ALW?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure on good central options

Dan Szymborski: San Antonio or Austin and Nashville?

Sammy So-so: You know the Rockies are moving Kris Bryant to second.

Dan Szymborski: That’s probably too creative for me

Morbo: The God of War reboot while good is overrated. Fighting a freaking Draugr shouldn’t be difficult for a literal God of War I should be able to murder 50 of them a time with little effort. Also the Valkyrie Queen fight is cheap as hell on the hardest difficulty. Thank you for attending my Ted Talk

Steve O: Is the AAA team in Charlotte too much of an obstacle to getting an MLB team? I certainly hope not. It’s the largest city without an MLB team nearby.

Dan Szymborski: I doubt it.

Dan Szymborski: Nobody cared about the Denver Zephyrs or Phoenix Firebirds the second those cities got expansion teams

Dan Szymborski: Hell, the Zephrys were basically evicted from Mile High by the Rockies

Dan Szymborski: And MLB cares about the minor leagues even less than they did 30 years ago

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Re: expansions. Bring back expos pls.

Dan Szymborski: Montreal would be another fun possibility

Heff: What non ballpark food would become better / more appealing if it were served at the ballpark?

Dan Szymborski: Grilled cheese on a  stick?

Cave Dameron: If you had to have a major leaguer as a teammate, who would you choose?

Dan Szymborski: Trevor May?

Hugh Duffy: Dan the optimist here, thinking only half the chat will have an oblique injury before the end.

brad penny for your thoughts: the person who emailed you about your appearance…was it meant as an awkward compliment or was it from murray chass?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, Murray hasn’t written about me since that one blog post

Dan Szymborski: where he coined me the Digital Dandy accidentally

Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t updated his blog in a few years and I’ve heard his health isn’t so good, so no reason to rag on him right now

Dan Szymborski: Though I’m still of the opinion he should have had his BBWAA card taken away because of his Mike Piazza acne report

Dan Szymborski: He used his BBWAA access to report on a player’s naked body. That is an inappropriate use of BBWAA credentials.

Dan Szymborski: We are there to get quotes and the like, not to observe naked flesh.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to head onto the dusty ol’ trail for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!