Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/9/15

Dan Szymborski: Chat has started but I’m still not quite ready

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Comment From James
Zips LOVES Lucas Duda to the point where he’s a late 2nd round player in a 5×5 OBP! Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: He may be an interesting sleeper in OBP leagues. Haven’t done my fantasy rankings yet

Comment From Power Ranger
Kind of a random question, but who do you trust to have a better season, Pujols or Carlos Santana?

Dan Szymborski: Santana I think still has more upside left.

Comment From mtsw
Should the Orioles sell high on Zach Britton? Seems like he’d be especially hurt by any changes to the bottom of the strike zone and they have a very crowded bullpen suddenly with two R5 selections they can’t shuffle to Norfolk.

Dan Szymborski: I think they should eventually sell high on Britton, but I think the best opportunity is in another year.

Comment From Jub Jub
How long until Arizona pulls the plug on the Yasmani Tomas at 3B experiment?

Dan Szymborski: It’s in Arizona’s interest to try it as long as possible. Otherwise, either Peralta or Trumbo become the odd man out rather than Lamb, who they can send to the minors and wait for further developments

Comment From Bo Porter
The Astros seem to have four viable options to close this season. Who do you see as most likely to begin the season closing for them?

Dan Szymborski: I expect Gregorson to have first dibs.

Comment From Guest
youre not a Dr, but is Cliff Lee’s career over?

Comment From Los
Cliff Lee’s elbow makes me sad.

Dan Szymborski: I’m extremely worried about Lee obviously. I suspect even with TJ, he at least makes some attempt at a comeback

Comment From total mismatch
george washington vs bill clinton would go down like an early Tyson fight. Clinton KO’d within 20 seconds.

Comment From Guest
Will Price get 200mm +?

Dan Szymborski: If he doesn’t, it will be close

Comment From Phillies113
In August 2012, the Dodgers claimed Cliff Lee off waivers from the Phillies. Rather than work a deal out with them, RAJ pulled him back, killing any possibility of moving Lee that season. How bad does that lack-of-trade look today? Or is this a classic example of hindsight being 20/20?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s hindsight. At the time, you have to evaluate Lee’s *chance* of serious injury. In hindsight it becomes 100%. That’s baseball Calvinism.

Dan Szymborski: The Phillies would have been better off right now if they simply let the Dodgers have Lee on waivers for free. But you can hardly say that would have been a good decision then

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Over under of 199.5 Ks for Betances and Miller (what do you got?)

Dan Szymborski: I think over. ZiPS has them slightly under, but Miller will have more IP than ZiPS says

Comment From Guest
Is the Santana at 3rd base experiment over?

Dan Szymborski: In any serious fashion, Santana to 3rd has been dead since last summer

Comment From Phil
Zips has Votto at 100 games. You agree?

Dan Szymborski: It’s reasonable as a projection, I think. There are real concerns

Comment From Saves Vulture
Do you think the Jays go out and get Papelbon? If not, Cecil or Sanchez?

Dan Szymborski: No, Cecil, assuming his shoulder is OK

Dan Szymborski: Cecil’s safer – Jays are in a position in which they should be more risk averse

Comment From Bret
Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez or Marco Estrada for the Jays fifth starter job?

Dan Szymborski: Would like to see Sanchez

Comment From Jono
The Robinson Cano (17) and Adrian Beltre (21) HR projections seem low. Is this the systems reaction to their “down” power years last years or did the system predict similarly low numbers last year relative to their careers. What do you, not ZIPS, expect from those guys this year?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think ZiPS is quite reasonable here. Cano moved to a much worse power environment and while I may take the over, very slightly (if the prop bet was at 17, it wouldn’t be enough to interest me into placing a bet)

Dan Szymborski: As for Beltre, he’s 36 soon. Decline is likely

Comment From Guest
Could Trumbo play 3rd?

Dan Szymborski: He could stand at 3rd and play a game of baseball, so in that sense yet. He’d be fairly lousy though. I mean yeah, I can date Scarlett Johansson too, but it’s not happening.

Comment From Snid
Does Salazar win the 5th starter role in Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski: If the Indians aren’t insane and he doesn’t have a setback, yes

Comment From Curtis
Joe DiMaggio, in 1941, struck out 13 times ALL SEASON (622 PA!)! He K’d 369 times in his career – 13 seasons/ 7600+ PA Will we EVER see something like that again?

Dan Szymborski: No, the approach to the game both on the mound and at the plate is very different

Comment From Bookie Metts
Thoughts on the Red Sox outfield as of today? Who do we see out there come day one of the regular season?

Dan Szymborski: Castillo vs. Betts is looking like a good, ol’ fashioned positional battle. I’d actually give Betts a very slight nod here – in a lot of ways he’s the less risky of the two.

Dan Szymborski: Simply put, despite his age and the contract, I don’t think he’d really be hurt by some time in AAA – he’s played very little actual baseball the last couple years

Dan Szymborski: Victorino’s hold int he outfield is fragile – he’s injury-prone, there are questions around how good he is in 2015, and he’s a FA after the season

Comment From mtsw
If the league reorganized itself into twelve teams where each team is composed of only players who currently start at a certain position for a MLB team, i.e. a team of only shortstops, a team of only DHs, a team of only relief pitchers, how would it play out? Who would finish first? How would the pitcher teams do? Would the DH team lose 120 games?

Dan Szymborski: The average DH can likely play the field better than the average pitcher hits

Comment From NYYFan14
Who’s your go to character in Super Smash?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a Wii or a Wii U, so I haven’t played since Melee. Falco.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, I meant to save that one for the Lightning Round

Dan Szymborski: (If you ask an off-topic question, I will likely save it for the Lightning Round)

Comment From Grainedanslepeteu Cameron
If we had all the stats and analytics of today in the 1920’s and on.. Which players legacy would be the most affected (positively and negatively)?

Dan Szymborski: The light-hitting shortstops which didn’t end up faring really well in defensive stats would fare quite poorly.

Dan Szymborski: As would some of the middling 3B during that transitional period in which 3B were all over the offense/defense spectrum

Dan Szymborski: OBP guys would look a lot better than they did.

Comment From Snid
Will Carlos Correa get significant MLB AB’s this year?

Dan Szymborski: Not a ton, but he at least makes an appearance

Comment From Bryan
Given who is in the rotation, how much of a negative will the Murphy-Flores middle infield be for the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly not a plus. Probably 15 runs worse than average, but there’s a big error bar there

Comment From Guest
Is Cliff Lee a Hofer?

Dan Szymborski: If he’s done, no. As a peak candidate, he’d need a few more crazy high seasons. And the voters do a really poor job on peak guys right now.

Comment From Tom
Will Heyward get 200M?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Minty
Is Peraza as risky as Dee Gordan in the sense that outside of speed he could be fringe?

Dan Szymborski: Probably more risky in the short term – Peraza’s got like 2 months of AA ball

Dan Szymborski: One thing is he’s probably better defensively than Gordon – with Gordon, if he doesn’t hit, you’re not even guaranteed a guy who can field well

Comment From MetsFaithful5
Was it a good or bad sign that Harvey was touching 98 in his first spring start? What’s the chance he comes back and averages 96 MPH (2013 velocity) during the season or even exceeds it?

Dan Szymborski: It’s good that it’s possible, but I hope he doesn’t throw too many of those in the spring

Comment From Minty
With Gallo’s added risk, would you rather have him or Sano for fantasy?

Dan Szymborski: Gallo – Sano has risks of his own

Comment From mtsw
Is David Wright the greatest player in Mets history?

Dan Szymborski: No. Seaver

Dan Szymborski: He’s the greatest position player though

Comment From Jeff
Corey Hart is back today after missing a week because he hurt his foot exiting a hot tub. Have there been any other weird injuries this spring that I’ve missed?

Dan Szymborski: Well, Sale jumping off his truck, unless that was euphemism for something

Comment From Tom
Hamels to the Cardinals. Makes too much sense. So it probably won’t happen, right?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think it’ll happen

Comment From Curtis
Which comes first, a cure for cancer or an accurate prediction of future Tommy John (with preventive measures of course)? (maybe a better question…which will have more money available for research?)

Dan Szymborski: Cancer I think. Less niche and more crucial to society I think

Dan Szymborski: Cancer is essentially a programming problem in humans and that kind of thing (while obviously exstrmeely difficult) has a path to fixing

Comment From DC
Looking for some Keeper League Position Scarcity wisdom. SS and 3B are crazy shallow this year in my league. Do I take a Hanley or Longoria over an Upton or Fielder when the talent dropoff at 1B and OF isnt as large? Or still Best player available. My apologies f this is worded terribly.

Dan Szymborski: It always depends on the *exact* specifics of the draft. Going into drafts/auctions with rigid plans is a recipe for disater

Dan Szymborski: disaster

Comment From Guest
What University did you attend and were you in any fraternities?

Dan Szymborski: Loyola (the MD one) and there were no fraternities

Dan Szymborski: So I was an indie drinker

Comment From Caveman Jones
Not sure if you answered this on twitter, but how much, if any, involvement did you have with the Economist piece about spring training stats?

Dan Szymborski: I provided Dan with the data. And helped hinder him because H and R were reversed in the data one year

Comment From Guest
Concerned about Mesoraco’s mild concussion, could it be something to plague him all season?

Dan Szymborski: If it’s *actually* mild, then not too worried

Comment From Walt
what are your thoughts on reds top prospect robert stephenson? rough 2014 – how confident are you that he can be a number 2?

Dan Szymborski: A lot less confident than I was a year ago. His command was off and you can argue he was a little worse than he looked – that ERA near 5 came with a BABIP in the 260s.

Comment From Caveman Jones
Do you watch NXT?

Dan Szymborski: I do, but not religiously

Comment From Joey
Does Brandon Morrow get a chance to start in SD? Or do they try and make him into Wade Davis?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get a chance to start I think, but it wouldn’t be so bad if he ended up in relief

Comment From BMoney
Any opinion on how well Jorge De la Rosa does this year? Any chance he learns to pitch on the road?

Dan Szymborski: Meh. He’ll be above average, but not excitingly so, and there’s always injury risk

Comment From Vslyke
Drew Smyly has shoulder tendinitis; how concerning is that? Obviously not Darvish bad but not good news either.

Dan Szymborski: Anything in the shoulder or elbow is concerning, no matter how minor it’s claimed to be

Comment From Conor
What would Kershaw’s ERA be if he had an infield of 4 Andrelton Simmons, an outfield of 3 Jackie Bradley Jrs, and Christian Vazquez as his catcher?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be way more concerned about how you got all these clones way before the rest of science

Dan Szymborski: Really frigging low obviously

Dan Szymborski: Half-run a game maybe?

Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming simmons wouldn’t instantly be +30 at positions he hasn’t played

Comment From hack
Hughes or Bailey for this year?

Dan Szymborski: Hughes

Comment From hack
With Span out…A) Does Taylor make the team and B)How well does he perform. From what I heard he can’t hit the breaking ball?

Dan Szymborski: He has a good shot and he’ll be below average but not disastrous. I think ZiPS is right-on there

Comment From tituba
Hey Dan, I was curious about insurance and baseball. Through your interactions with teams and analytics, have you noticed financial strategies like insurance playing significant roles in decision making for teams (Like a team not signing a pitcher because the insurance will cost too much)? or anything interesting in general?

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that there’s insufficient information available here, even to a Trusted Officially License Media News Dude like me.

Comment From gui
what do you think will be Raisel Iglesias role with the Reds in 2015?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Reds even know. I suspect he’s not ready to pitch in the majors – he had control issues even in Cuba.

Comment From hack
Think Rodon makes the Sox with Sale out? Also how many starts will Sale miss?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s in the cards – it doesn’t make sense to drastically change their Rodon plans for a short-term thing. Most likely, they go short-term with one of their many horrible Plan Bs, like Brad Penny

Comment From Guest
If Darvish has Tj surgery will Beltre get moved?

Dan Szymborski: If Darvish has TJ, I think the Rangers may very well give up the ghost. It’s a big deal

Comment From allen craig
but…what am i gonna do?

Dan Szymborski: Until you hit again, ain’t nobody making serious plans for you

Comment From hack
SS would win that tournament. Good arm strength to pitch and likely the best fielder on the field..and I would guess their are 9 SS that can hit – especially if you have C and 1B trying to strike them out.

Comment From Phillies113
What are your thoughts regarding the lack of replacement level for defensive stats? MGL and Tom Tango, over the weekend on billjamesonline.com, provided a very compelling case for why defensive stats are flawed for this very reason.

Dan Szymborski: I actually have not read this yet

Dan Szymborski: But not having read it, I don’t have a problem with lack of replacement level.

Dan Szymborski: Without reading, that sounds like a pretty big change of heart from Tango unless my memory’s wrong

Comment From William
If you were the GM for the Rangers, would you trade for Hamels?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: Rangers with Darvish still had some windows to have some good fortune and get into the high-80s. Even if you assume Hamels exactly places Darvish, that window *with* Darvish wasn’t wide enough that it was worth the prospects needed to acquire Hamels.

Comment From Jake speed
without C Lee, what record do you expect for Phili? At least they can pretend to blame injuries now instead of just saying we flat out are clueless.

Dan Szymborski: If he’s definitely out, we’re talking high-60s mean

Comment From Guest
George Washington is 6’20” ?!? Can any president win against that reach?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, there was a documentary on this subject

Dan Szymborski: https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From Rob
Would Wil Myers at 1B and Maybin in CF be a reasonable option if Myers is totally overmatched in CF?

Dan Szymborski: I would strongly consider that (well, until Maybin gets injured), but the Padres continue to hold out hope for Yonder Alonso

Comment From Guest
What video games are you playing this week?

Dan Szymborski: Never know in advanced, but I’ll be streaming more NES after this chat! twitch.tv/zimsmash

Comment From Adam
do you think shane greene has the ability to significantly outperform his projections this year?

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps – he’s not one that excites me too much.

Comment From Curtis
Which HOT prospect are you coldest on?

Dan Szymborski: I did a whole piece on ZiPS prospects a few weeks ago!

Dan Szymborski: Just personally, I think Kyle Zimmer’s far riskier than his rankings reflect

Comment From Cashmere Taco
Just getting into your ZIPS, pardon my amateurism, but are these what ZIPS expects of a player IF they played in the majors this season? I ask cause Brandon Nimmo is on there and projected for 125 games – is that projecting his minor league stats?

Dan Szymborski: It says in the post! ZiPS is projecting equivalent major league production

Comment From Mike D
Would you rather have McCutch for 3 years or Carlos Gomez for 1 AND Correa for 5?

Dan Szymborski: Depends my team’s situation

Dan Szymborski: Now, if I’m the Brewers or Astros and can trade another team’s player in my trade for Cutch, I take the latter noquestions asked

Comment From John
and you must mean greatest home grown player? because some great players played for the mets, no?

Comment From Clock
piazza isn’t greatest met’s position player?

Dan Szymborski: I assumed we were talking Mets time

Comment From RK
re: Harvey’s velocity – have you heard anything about Bundy’s thus far this spring? Hoping the winter has made a difference in that area that wasn’t back yet last summer.

Dan Szymborski: They’re taking it fairly slowly in Bundy. And yes, his velocity last year was disappointing

Comment From mtsw
Having multiple elite fielders playing adjacent to one another (say, Mark Belanger and Brooks Robinson): diminishing returns as they begin to cover overlapping areas of the field, or extra value generated?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t believe — though some quality research can prove me wrong — that it really makes that much of a difference

Comment From mtsw
If you had to collude with a player to fake an injury to send him to the DL for roster management purposes, which injury would you fake?

Dan Szymborski: Concussion? You get the seven-day DL

Dan Szymborski: And it’s harder to easy witness brain damage like you would a sore hammy.

Dan Szymborski: Not that I would do any of this

Comment From John
but cancer cure requires federal research dollars, which are harder and harder to come by… the private sector is perfectly happy raping cancer patients and their families money for overpriced medicines, so they arent necessarily rooting for a cure

Dan Szymborski: Still a lot more money than TJ

Comment From Matt
Given that baseball has a ton of money and the technology is there, why aren’t there printed UCLs yet? Perhaps stronger ones

Dan Szymborski: There will be – I’ve actually talked about this a ttimes

Comment From mtsw
FG has the Nats as having an 18% chance of winning the World Series. How good do they have to be to have that? Even if you assume a 100% chance at winning the division, it’s a lot of work to take them from 12.5% (assuming each round of playoffs is a coinflip) to 18%

Dan Szymborski: That’s too high for me.

Comment From Twinkie
Asked this in a chat last week, so trying to get a 2nd opinion on Kennys Vargas possibly surprising? Seems to me he has better plate discipline background and crushes the ball just as much as the much-hyped Oswaldo Arcia… He hits straight ball very much. If the only problem is Vargas can’t hit the curve, can’t sacrificing a live chicken solve that?

Dan Szymborski: Vargas has hit well, but he’s also been old for his levels and in a few case *really* old

Comment From GGrandson
So much for the “I’m saving off-topic for the lightning round” thing, huh?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not always good at it

Comment From hulkamania
How do I even begin to plan for QS as a stat category? Are past QS useful at all? Some sort of IP/FIP formula?

Dan Szymborski: You’d have to model QS from IP/start and ER most likely. I’ve never done it

Dan Szymborski: A few more and then it’s time for the Lightning Round

Dan Szymborski: To refresh, for a 3 minute period, every question asked that is off-topic *has* to be answered, so long as it’s not something extremely explicit or a job-related reason why I can’t

Comment From mtsw
I just read in Grantland that Nmadakong Suh signed with the Miami Dolphins in part because Florida (unlike Michigan) has no state income tax. I see this brought up constantly in terms of the NBA as well. Why do we never hear this brought up with baseball free agents? It seems like at least as big an issue given the size of MLB contracts.

Dan Szymborski: We actually *do* hear it quite a bit with scertain free agents.

Dan Szymborski: It does tend to be less of a big deal because MLB contracts tend to be bigger

Dan Szymborski: Liek Jimmy Graham receiving $20 million guaranteed, which is half of what Juan Pierre got guaranteed a *decade* ago

Dan Szymborski: Tax differences for Sheffield almost made the LA-FLA deal fall apart

Comment From Jake speed
A faster way to type “I actually have not read this yet” = idk

Comment From Sean
Did you read the community post that was able to find some sort of “good teammate” value, focused on Brandon Inge?

Dan Szymborski: I have not, but consider me skeptical

Comment From Q
Do you have a favorite pitcher to watch in the league?

Dan Szymborski: Kershaw. And Buehrle – I like guys who work fast

Comment From mtsw
Apple Watch: give us an opinion.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t wear a watch

Dan Szymborski: DAMMIT MEANT TO TAG NOT POST

Dan Szymborski: OK, Time for the lightning round. GO!

Comment From mtsw
Given the high variance added by the blue shell, how long would a competitive Mario Kart season need to be before you could be reasonably sure the best player had the best record?

Dan Szymborski: A lot, I’m not fan of the blue shell. There’s RNG and there’s simply forced rubberbanding

Comment From Andy5
Thoughts on the current season of Sunny? I’m *still* laughing hysterically about the Family Fight episode!

Dan Szymborski: Terrific year so far!

Comment From natdog
You need a live ROOSTER for the sacrifice, not just a live chicken

Comment From Sean
what’s your favorite type of lightning

Dan Szymborski: Electrical!

Comment From Umami
What twitch streams do you watch?

Dan Szymborski: Trump, strifecro, applejacked if he’s not going on about 9/11 being an inside job

Comment From Dan
The five BBTF posters whose Off-topic posts you hate most (just using handle.) Gotta answer it, dammit!

Dan Szymborski: Jolly St. Knick, Rickey, Joey B, tshipman, Bitter Mouse

Dan Szymborski: I spelled nick wrong

Comment From Mark
Yo Dan! Bananas or Apples?

Dan Szymborski: Apples

Comment From Evan
What justifies the marketing budget for Game of War?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t played it. Probaby sucks

Comment From Phillies113
Daylight Savings Time: are you in favor or opposed?

Dan Szymborski: Opposed

Comment From Guest
Dont all athletes pay taxes in whatever state their playing in when they get paid?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very complex and varies.

Comment From Guest
What beer is in your fridge at the moment?

Dan Szymborski: Right now, a few trappistes rochefort 6s and a couple of thos narwhal russian imperials made by sierra nevada

Comment From Guest
Ever played Rise of Nations? I’ve been playing the rerelease on steam.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a game I never got around to. I mgiht even own it

Comment From Umami
where do you buy all your expensive imported meat?

Dan Szymborski: Jungle Jim’s in Cincinnati

Comment From Guest
You don’t wear a watch, but would you wear a phone on your wrist? A computer?

Dan Szymborski: I have a phone

Dan Szymborski: I only want to carry phone, wallet, keys. No rings, jewelry of any type, anything in my pockets that not one of those 3 things. Not even coins

Comment From Mark
Best protein for use in chili?

Dan Szymborski: beef

Comment From Guest
I’m pretty excited to see this fanless high res Macbook Air. Don’t care about the watch

Dan Szymborski: I’m not into macs

Comment From Guest
What is your middle name?

Dan Szymborski: John

Comment From Vinny Mac
True or False, John Cena needs to go heel!

Comment From Mark
Sorry, Bananas was the correct answer. You should feel shame

Dan Szymborski: Apples are more versatile

Dan Szymborski: They’re close as hand fruits, but you can do more with apples

Comment From Guest
How many followers/viewers would you need on Twitch before you get significant income from it?

Dan Szymborski: A crapload. I stream because it’s fun – I have a good job

Comment From Davix tipenix Cameron
Favorite currently running TV show?

Dan Szymborski: AlwayS Sunny

Comment From Guest
What beer is in your hand at the moment?

Dan Szymborski: None, I am typing on a keyboard. And I’m actually just drinking a coke

Comment From Medal of Honor
Best Call of Duty?

Dan Szymborski: 2

Comment From Guest
You buy expensive imported meat? Is that a special code?

Dan Szymborski: Jungle Jim’s has some badass jamon iberico

Comment From Hoff
Springsteen or Bon Jovi?

Dan Szymborski: bon jovi

Comment From Walt
hey Dan – i live in cincy. can we grab a beer?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Comment From RSF
“That’s baseball Calvinism.” I love you.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to end for another week!

Dan Szymborski: You can read my work at ESPN.com and ZiPS season projections are on newsstands very soon in ESPN Mag. Chats and projections here at FanGraphs and DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: Also twitch.tv/zimsmash for some game stuff. I’ve just started my stream, going to play a little more Little League Baseball and then move on.

Dan Szymborski: And congratulations to George Washington for making the round of 8!