Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/14/22

Dan Szymborski: April.

Nate: I know it’s still early, but are we starting to worry about Jared Kelenic again?

Dan Szymborski: April.

James: Can you give the devil’s advocate explanation for a lineup where Niko Goodrum bats third and Kyle Tucker 6th?

Dan Szymborski: A good one?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: I guess…well, the third hitter leads off the fewest innings!

Dan Szymborski: Or maybe you get the pitcher overconfident “Goodrum batting third? I must be facing the B-team today!”

G9: Tylor Megill throwing 99 mph fastballs and filthy 90 mph changeups he feels for real right?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to have fluke speed

seth: why was Shogo so bad 🙁

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, it’s hard to learn a league when you get to play so irregularly

Dan Szymborski: and NPB is harder than Triple-A but it’s still a DIFFERENT style than MLB/AAA

Dan Szymborski: He got like a quarter of his PA as pinch-hitter, which is hard (and why everyone sucks at it)

Big Joey: What are your expectations for Gore this season? What about next season?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, I just want him to stay healthy for a year and his command be good. Then work from there

Guest: With that new team friendly extension for Reynolds do you see the Pirates getting better offers for him and them possibly  “having” to trade him because of the offer?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think they’re likely to trade him after the season, not during

Dan Szymborski: Remember, payroll has to be 150% of shared revenue pool or the assumption is bad faith.

Big Joey: Should Wander Franco be untouchable in dynasty leagues?

Dan Szymborski: Ain’t nobody uncoutchable

Kev: Is Michael Conforto going to get signed?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s going to be a June signing

BEN GAMEL GRADE 80 HAIR: Be honest – Brett Phillips is the best 2 way player in baseball. His sliding catch in foul territory alone locks up a Gold Glove @ P!   🙂

Dan Szymborski:

Dan: What’s going on with all the free agents? Will most of them retire? Could they be playing right now if they were ok with league minimum?

Dan Szymborski: There are always some guys who have accidental retirement tours

Dan Szymborski: Some would likely be signed if they were willing to play for the minimum

Dan Szymborski: and some of these guys will latch on to teams as the months go on

Dan Szymborski: guys like Oliver Drake

Dan Szymborski: Conforto’s the only real one who has significant value out there

Guest: Any reason to think Oneil Cruz won’t be up as soon as the service time marker is hit?

Dan Szymborski: No

BEN GAMEL GRADE 80 HAIR: Its very small sample size thus far, but how do you believe J-ROD has looked in CF on defense? Is he mostly CF moving forward short term (this year), CF more longer term, or moved back to a corner when (if) Lewis returns?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re still exploring options. It makes sense to try him at CF unless he either proves he can’t hack it or focusing on it is coming at the expense of development

Phil: Is it possible that the Manforts are actually evil geniuses?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Also, The Manfort sounds like a nightclub that caters in bears

Stu: How do you feel about jazz batting 8/9 in the lineup for the fish? I know he’s no on base machine but I think he needs to be a big part of their future and bat in the upper half of the lineup.

Dan Szymborski: If he keeps hitting homers, they’ll start moving him up, I’m sure

Dan Szymborski: towards the back of the lineup isn’t a bad idea, though I’d keep him in front of Stallings

Aaron: Have you updated your priors on any of your breakouts/busts in the first week of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I did not make any changes after Opening Day! I can’t chat at my own game.

Jed Hoyer: April I know, but concerns already existed about Schwindel and Wisdom (see your busts column) – not sure there is a better option than riding with Wisdom at this point?

Dan Szymborski: April and might as well see for yourself

bb: Hi Dan. I haven’t played video games in years but am thinking of getting MLB The Show. Any thoughts or sage advice?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve always enjoyed that game. It’s a great deal of fun

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t get this year’s version simply because I haven’t yet snagged a PS5 near retail

Dan Szymborski: Considering I’ll mostly use PS5 to play MLB the Show and probably japanese imports of Falcom games before they’re ported to the US, it’s hard to pay $800

Angelus Novus: Callups are hard to predict. Try please? O’s edition, Bradish, Rodriguez, Hall. (My guess is late-April, early-May, post-All Star break, respectively)

Dan Szymborski: Sounds about right

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: I don’t think this is an “April” question.

Will LaRussa ever stop messing with Andrew Vaughn and just put him in the lineup and leave him there? Kind of hard to see him reaching his offfensive ceiling if he’s not getting the ABs.

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: I’m of the same opinion

Dan Szymborski: I believe that you play Vaughn in the majors full-time and if you’re not comfortable playing him full-time in the majors, you play him full-time at AAA

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: What is the fourth month of the year?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Who did Aubrey Plaza play on Parks and Recreation?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: What kind of showers bring May flowers?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: You like Josh Lowe?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like any Lowes because now I have to remember Brandon Lowe has to be different

Dan Szymborski: Zach vs. Zack vs. Zac is annoying, but at least I didn’t have to remember to say one of them as “Zawk”

Matt: Would you trade Vaughn for Montas if you were the Chisox?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: I think the team needs Vuahgn to develop

mybloodyballantine: Can we please stop with the ‘x-rod’ thing?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Did the great minor league contraction leave notably fewer jobs for fringe MLBers types like many of the remaining free agents?

Dan Szymborski: Some, but I think it probably hurts the sub-fringe MLBers worse, the real organizational players

Dan: When you run your season projections did you notice how many team/seasons ended up with a team missing a playoff spot or a first round bye by one or less game?

Dan Szymborski: I did not

Quarantino Martinez: So, according to Manfred, the Lerners will probably sell the Nats for a loss, right?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure.

Sirras: Dan, what is the first month alphabetically?

Dan Szymborski: Août

Sirras: Dan, what is your favorite month?

Dan Szymborski: October

Teddy: Most impressive rookie performances so far for you?

Dan Szymborski: How could it not be Kwan

szymbolism: please make me optimistic for this diamondbacks season. I want to drink a bizarre brew of seth beer kool aid

Dan Szymborski: I’ve put Kool-Aid in liquor but not beer

Mike M: Honest truth: would you have taken Kershaw out after 7 perfect innings?

Dan Szymborski: I think in a lot of situations I wouldn’t, but given his recent injury history and the fact that he appears to have been supportive, I would have

Dan Szymborski: Besides isn’t a perfect game TOTALLY violating the unwritten rule of effort in a blowout?

GERB: I know.. April, but STEVEN KWAN

Dan Szymborski: We’ve got a vested interest! Both our prospect gang and ZiPS had him in the middle of the top 100 prospects and I believe we were an outlier there

Stu: With Jansen out for up to a month do you think there is any chance the jays call up Moreno?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a chance, but I suspect they want him to get as much playing time as possible. They’re going to roll with Kirk and the Assman, I think.

GERB: On a scale of APRIL to 10.. how much should a let my opinion of the Guardians offense be swayed by 1 week of games?

Dan Szymborski: APRIL

Matt: Have you seen the video between the mets and philies fans with the mets guy getting his phone thrown on the field?  Any takes on it?

Dan Szymborski: Meh. A couple of dumbasses who probably both had too much to drink

Matt: Think the Phillies bats will produce more this season or are they in trouble?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re good, not great, and nothing in handful of games changes it for me

Andrew: Good Afternoon Dan hope all is well. How many turns through a rotation before you think you a have decent idea about how good it is? Is it 5-10 or even more. Obviously injuries happen but most playoff teams stay relatively healthy there.

Dan Szymborski: It depends. The worse or better the performance, the quicker you can make an  evaluation

Dan Szymborski: performance *and* playing time required for panic/elation are variables

Cynthia: What is the name of the quirky character from Parks and Rec?

Dan Szymborski: Jean-Ralphio

Cynthia: Do you think we’ll see any evaluation systems in the near future that rely on pitch-to-pitch values? For example, instead of giving Mike Trout .xxx runs for hitting a single it would say he faced a 0-0 96 mph on the outer corner, then a 87 mph slider in the dirt, then hit a single on a 95 mph fastball down the middle? An average hitter would produce .xxx runs against these pitches, and MIke’s single is .xxx above that average?

Dan Szymborski: It would be interested to see that approach, but I don’t know if we can get THAT much advantage from going super micro

Guest: I’m not sure but this Vladdy kid seems like he might have a future in the game.

JH: Does ZiPS do anything with numbers from the showcase circuit when evaluating prospects, or is that too uneven to be of any use whatsoever?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does not use that.

Bob Bob: Hey Dan, remind me: what’s the month before May?

Dan Szymborski: One of them is March

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: What’s Dan’s Mom calling about today?

Dan Szymborski: Giving me a full minute-to-minute description of what my nearly one-year-old nephew is doing

Dan Szymborski: And me trying to tell her that I don’t need the minutes from the meeting, just the gist. What babies do isn’t particularly interesting.

Dan Szymborski: Now, my nearly three-year-old nephew, he’s very interesting.

Dan Szymborski: My mom is amused that his personality and development are nearly identical to mine at the same ages.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t vouch for that because I don’t remember being two.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Will Cleveland tank, rebuild, and get back to the playoffs before the Tigers and Royals and their 10-year rebuild plans?

Dan Szymborski: No. Yes.

Sirras: Dan, what month’s showers bring May flowers?

Dan Szymborski: early May showers

Cynthia: If the warning from Julius Caesar’s soothsayer was a few weeks late and less specific, when would the prediction have occurred?

Dan Szymborski: Beware the last weekend of March

80s Guy: Disappointed by everybody referencing Parks and Rec instead of TMNT for their April joke

Dan Szymborski: We’re old

uhh big reddit guy: Do you think the rule 5 draft returns next year? Its one of the best mechanics in sports and would be roaring shame if it is gone forever

Dan Uggla: Together you and me like a bowl of dan dan noodles will save the rule 5 draft what do you say

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be back next year

Dan Szymborski: And I love me some dandanmian

Appa Yip Yip: Who is the Assman

Dan Szymborski: Heineman

Dan Szymborski:

Random: In what month did this chat jump the shark because you’re only answering questions about what month this chat jumped the shark?

Dan Szymborski: May if I’m still doign the April bit

Rhaye: Did you know that the Reds traded away (as prospects) Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Brad Boxberger, Chris Dickerson, Jeff Keppinger, Didi Gregorius, and Travis Wood in a 3 year period under Walt Jocketty? I don’t have much more to add to that.

Dan Szymborski: I was aware of these transactions of course

Stu: Hoe does this years draft look? Lots of high end talent? Deep? Shallow?

Dan Szymborski: That’s an Eric/Tess Q! I claim no particular expertise to college ball

Nate: I mean…is it possible Parks and Rec and TMNT actually share the same universe and the same April?

Dan Szymborski: They had different personalities

brad penny for your thoughts: whats the name of the 1998 Italian semi-autobiographical film directed by Nanni Moretti?

Dan Szymborski: Aprile

April: HOW ABOUT KERSHAW YESTERDAY THOUGH

That slider was ON POINT

(also noticed from savant that while the spin axis is basically the same, the observed movement was much bigger – is he incorporating the SSW into his slider? – something to watch going forward)

Dan Szymborski: Who pitches poorly in a perfect game?

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers don’t have a lot of depth. *Maybe* if there was Kershaw pushback I would have

Appa Yip Yip: Santiago Espinal already has a third as many balls hit over 100 mph as he did all last season after adding the vaunted 15 lbs of muscle. If he can turn some of his singles into doubles with new stronkth what does that do for his overall outlook?

Dan Szymborski: Well, if he gets better, then by definition, he’ll be better!

Devil’s Advocate: In fairness to Manfred, the Nationals franchise value has only modestly outpaced the S&P 500 since 2006. Nationals estimated to have grown a bit over 400%, S&P a bit under. But my index stocks don’t come with box seats to every home game, so owning a team is infinitely more fun.

Your Name, Dan.: How do you feel about the Jordon-Hicks-as-Opener thing? Seems like the Cards are depleting an average bullpen in order to shore up a liability, instead of, you know, signing another starter or trading for Montas

Dan Szymborski: I like testing players out

Dan Szymborski: The Cards have an average rotation too. A trade for MOntas would be fun though.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Who was the mob boss Tony Soprano took over for?

Dan Szymborski: I think technically, Tony took power from Junior

Mark: Is Aaron Ashby doomed to long relief and spot starts this year or will we see him in the regular rotation

Dan Szymborski: Probably in the short term.

Dan Szymborski: But pitchers get injured

Mr met: Do you think Scherzer has a chance to be as good as Tylor Megill this year?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Guest: I am sure much smarter people than me have thought about this and concluded it wouldn’t work, but would it be possible to allow teams to DH for *any* position, and not strictly the pitcher?  So when Shohei is pitching, the Angels could DH for some crappy noodle bat defender?  Seems strange to me that the Angels essentially don’t get to swap out a hitter just because their pitcher happens to be great at hitting.

Dan Szymborski: Well, not under the rules

14343: Matt Brash looks… filthy?

Dan Szymborski: Brash and Filthy sounds like an awful Bravo reality show

brad penny for your thoughts: what was the name of the oldest living captive tapir?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how to translate its name into tapir

Rhaye: What have the Reds ownership done to make me optimistic about the future of the team?

I wound up doing a ton of research for a reddit post about why exactly the team has failed for the past two decades, and the vast majority of it falls onto ownership for being impatient and not seeing plans through to completion. It feels like they’re doing the exact same thing this time.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a poorly run franchise

Colton: Do you think Bellinger has made any meaningful changes to get past this massive valley he’s been for over a year at this point?

Dan Szymborski: I hope so, but I’m bearish

Dan Szymborski: I would have had him on busts, but it’s so easy at this point and I’ve already written a lot about thim

JH: The S&P 500 doesn’t pay mid-8-figure annual dividends on mid-9-figure investments.

Adam B.: According to Simon and Garfunkel, what month comes (she will!) when streams are ripe and swelled with rain?

Dan Szymborski: Simon and Garfunkel haven’t seen eye-to-eye for a long time, so I can’t assert their current opinion on the middle months of the year

Stu: Do you ever run simulations where teams would be in other divisions? I’m wondering how the marlins chances to make playoffs would change if they weren’t in the NL east

Dan Szymborski: I do sometimes

Matt: MLB: The Show is now on GamePass which is pretty amazing for a sports game. xCloud as well if you can get a good connection.

Dan Szymborski: Can you actually hit?

Dan Szymborski: I have a good connection, but last time I tried GamePass awhile back, the timing for things in games was just VERY slightly off

Random: Pretend it’s September ’22 – Which RP unexpectedly became their team’s closer and helped me fix my terrible draft strategy?

Dan Szymborski: Is Staumont unexpected?

Dan Szymborski: Also, I think McHugh or Matzek is Atlanta’s best reliever

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: With Roki Sasaki already a sensation do you start projecting him now just for yourself? He’s honestly the pitcher whose highlights  I like watching the best. Something about 100 heat and a diving splitter is appealing

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t yet, but he looks like a ton of fun!

Greg: Who was it that really made the great Kenny Powers all that he could be?

Dan Szymborski: Whoever first thought of alcohol

Devil’s Advocate: Sure, you also need to accept Manfred’s nonsense assertion that teams aren’t raking in cash year to year.  But in general, massive amounts of capital can be used to generate even more massive amounts of capital in a variety of ways. MLB teams aren’t losing money, but they may not actually be much more lucrative than other things you could do with that kind of money.

Dan Szymborski: Is anybody not on the same page with this?

Dan Szymborski: Though in fairness, the Nats have lost some money in their weird MASN fight with the O’s

Bob: What are your early impressions of seiya suzuki

Dan Szymborski:

Phil: Jackie Bradley finally hit a ball kind of hard! If off the end of the bat a little. Still. Any hope there? He really just needs to hit the Mendoza line or so to play regularly, right, given the defense?

Dan Szymborski: I have little hope

Phil Castellini: Where you gonna go?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball is the only game in town. It’s 1934, right?

Dan Szymborski: it’s either go to a baseball game or get syphilis

Jeb: May you please get the robot to write a story about how ZiPS feelings were hurt because you trusted Steamer’s Gio Urshela projection more and how you had to cheer up ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: I have a relevant image from the year Chris Davis was awesome

Dan Szymborski:

Zach: So Gavin Lux has looked like the best player on the Dodgers so far. Please tell me this is his coming out party.

Dan Szymborski: I kinda hope so since I’ve been giving him strong projections for years!

Dan Szymborski: I’d hate to have to blame Carson for another wrong projection

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how he has the time to make ZiPS make wrong projections

Johnny5Alive: I know its only 7 games, but the mets bullpen has been concerning already and been bad for years… you think maybe they should have considered addressing it? At this point, they’ll have to give up prospects to fix instead of just money

Dan Szymborski: April.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a good pen!

Dan Szymborski: They have like five guys I’d be happy to use in any situation

Dan Szymborski: and that’s more than most teams have

Stu: You wrote earlier in the offseason that the jays had the easiest holes to fill or the least glaring holes. It was something along those lines. With Jansen and Teo out now do they have the most glaring holes of the 4 beasts of the AL east

Dan Szymborski: It depends if the injuries linger

Dan Szymborski: As long as TapiaTime is very limited, I wouldn’t worry

Mike M: What hitting stat is the most underappreciated by the average fan (not the average fangraphs reader)?  What pitching stat?

Dan Szymborski: It’s still OPS. OBP and SLG still explain most of how runs happen

Sean Murphy’s Buttocks: Skubal or Josiah Gray ROS?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Since I still have the directlry open

Dan Szymborski:

SJ: What are we listening to today

Dan Szymborski: I was listening to an Everyday Driver podcast episode I hadn’t yet

Dan Szymborski: And now this.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dylan: The Red Sox rotation could collapse at any moment. You’ve got an already hurt Chris Sale, a pitcher that has had TJS multiple times, and 42 year old that could just become a giant blister at any moment.

Dan Szymborski: That’s why ZIPS was worried abou tthem last year

Dan Szymborski: I actually am a bit less worried this time

H: Hi Dan, do you think Schwindel will perform great like last year?

Dan Szymborski: I do not.

Dan Szymborski: Which makes me sad

Jfast: Thoughts on Severance (tv show)?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen yet!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really watch much straight-up TV anymore

Matt: I like to believe Carson is personally responsible for the Blue Jays transforming into the Dodgers East.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t know the Dodgers were a DEN OF INIQUITY

Sir Nerdlington: As an anti-tanking measure, what if MLB went the route of first half and second half champions like MiLB of old? Trading deadline would be a blast.

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to head out for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: I will be on vacation, but I’ll still be around to be awful on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: (My prior vacation was cut short by MLB deal and COVID)