12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: TIMEFORADANCHAT AH CN ADAR OF EMIT
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12:01 |
the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?
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12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Some stir-fried chicken I made on Tuesday.
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12:01 |
v2micca: Braves appear to be testing their depth early. Are their losses going to be enough to give Philly a reasonable window of opportunity to take the division?
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12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m writing on this for tomorrow!
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12:03 |
Angels firstbaseman: Nolan schanuel could obviously use some work at AAA but why don’t they call up a gold glove first base man named evan white to replace him?
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12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Uh, isn’t White still at Tacoma?
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12:03 |
Mark: Re: Story’s injury, are there any recent examples of a position player making a comeback in his thirties after missing significant time 3 years in a row? My gut tells me this is the sort of thing that ends careers but I don’t know for sure.
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12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: There have been pitchers. It’s tough tough
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12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: though
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12:04 |
Rob: Getting ready to start a playthrough of Baldur’s Gate 3. Is Jose Altuve a Dwarf, Halfling, or Gnome? And which class should he be?
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12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: He doesn’t have the beard of a dwarf
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12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Maybe a halfling?
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12:06 |
Section 34: Dan, you are the right guy to ask this. I wonder about the most extreme effect possible from lineup construction, so I think about the 1970 Baltimore Orioles, who had 6 strong regulars (including two guys with OBP over .400) and also Mark Belanger. In later years, Earl Weaver occasionally batted Belanger first against lefties.
What if Belanger batted leadoff every game for the 1970 Orioles? Or third? How many fewer runs would they have scored? Is there a way to project this? Thank you.
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12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: You can goof around here
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12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Don’t forget, Belanger had a couple decent offensive seasons around that time frame
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12:09 |
Naive Hope: When I watch Logan O’Hoppe from last year, the eye test seems like hes improved on defense alot. When I hopped online to look at his defensive metrics, I felt pleasantly suprised that they agreed. With his batting prowess, am I foolish to believe he might be a top 5-8 catcher.
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12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s not at all foolish
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12:10 |
Chris: Is there an observable reason Jesse Chavez performs better with the Braves? Are other teams using him differently, pitch selection, anything besides the jersey??
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12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: Nothing I have seen
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12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: It might just be one of those weird things that happens?
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12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Presumably, if *Chavez* was aware of something, he’d let other teams know
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12:11 |
Tanner Houck: 28:2 K:BB ratio. Sub-1.00 WHIP. A splitter that seems to have found another gear. Hitters were looking pretty silly against me yesterday. Am I…Am I an ace?
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12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: I was actually thinking of a doing a splitters thing on Wheeler/Houck before kinda pivoting more towards Wheeler/Phillies offense
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12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s a fascinating pitcher, and I’m a fan of his splitter
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12:11 |
Content suggester: A few weeks ago you mentioned you have a 90-ish year old godfather. How about doing a yearly podcast with him from Florida?
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12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: He still lives in Baltimore! He’ll turn 99 in June. I don’t think he’s into baseball though.
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12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Though he’s a noted German historian who wrote a lot about the 20 July plot (and had spoken with every survivor)
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12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Not sure that necessarily fits with the stuff I do
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12:13 |
Oddball Herrera: I hear that the city of Denver has now thrown its hat into the ring on MLB expansion in a bid to get a major league team there…
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12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Oof
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12:13 |
TomBruno23: Great Scott II writeup from Other Ben…most damning part is the Siani-Walker-Scott II sub patterns c’mon Oli…
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12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: I briefly had Scott II on my MLB the Show DD team thanks to the 99 speed/steal
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12:14 |
Edward Cabrera: Thx in advance for your help. Are you buying after one start?
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12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I had him on my breakout list!
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12:14 |
Dancing on my Own: How low can Johan Rojas’ offensive production be for him to still be a league average player (~2.0 WAR)? What would you put the chance of him reaching that level in the next 2-3 years?
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12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Assuming he’s a +15 run defender, probably 75-80 or so?
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12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Though it’s off the cuff
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12:15 |
Zips user: For stats that are scaled against league statistics (as opposed to MLB), do you advocate that they be changed to be MLB-scaled due to the more or less balanced schedule ?
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12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Most stats that are league scaled have been MLB scaled for some time
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12:15 |
Key Flaw: How extreme of a week must a player have to radically alter ZiPS? Did Colton Cowser’s week last week change any projections? It certainly changed the way the fans and management view him.
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12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Heh, that’s a difficult question to answer specifically
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12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: It depends on just how large the difference is and *how* the difference was made
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12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: A BABIP change? ZiPS might not even blink. A low-homer guy going on a homer tear? Different story
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12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has already moved ROS up nine points of wRC+ for Cowser, from 101 to 110
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12:17 |
the guy who says it’s april: it’s april
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12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: BUT IM THE GUY WHO SAYS ITS APRIL
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12:18 |
Okra: Pirates pulled Jared Jones after 5 IP 1H 0BB 7K and only 59 pitches in his last start. They were only up 1-0 and went on to lose 1-3. He threw 126 innings last year and likely go ~160 this year. Way too early for these shenanigans, right?
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12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: I probably would not have done that
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12:19 |
Gary: With all of the dunking on the Red Sox for choosing Trevor Story over Xander Bogaerts, is it fair to consider that the Bogaerts might end up somehow being a worse deal. He still has almost 10 years left on his $280 million contract, and while not frankly washed, is starting to look like only a solid regular at best.
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12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: I was fairly optimistic about the Story signing, analysis which definitely has not worked out so far
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12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: It was a LOT of years for Bogaerts
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12:19 |
Zips user: What is your view of positional adjustment scaling now? It seems too dramatic to me now. It used to be that if you had a guy who could hit a ton you’d put him at 1B but 1B offensive results really don’t seem to reflect that to me. There’s a lot of bad hitting 1B over a number of years
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12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: We’re likely making some changes next year, but DH is likely to be easily the biggest shift
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12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: the others probably not moving more than a few runs one way or the others
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12:20 |
Insert Witty Name Here: Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, it’s why I chat with Dan on company time!
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12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Ask a job-related question then it counts as working I think
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12:21 |
Oddball Herrera: Have we all been bamboozled by KeBryan Hayes again? I feel like he has some sort of record for “number of years running in which his breakout is ‘imminent'”
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12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: I love his defense, but I’m not sold on the offense ever really breaking out
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12:21 |
Key Flaw: If babip doesn’t really vary with pitchers too much, is that because the ones that get hit hard have mostly been filtered out? Does it change for college or high school or low minors players?
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12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: It seems like more of an ability in low minors
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12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t checked for college, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t show up as a relatively strong ability there
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12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: and sure as sugar for high school
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12:21 |
Jonathan Liskov: Gunnar Henderson & Heston Kjerstad or Anthony Volpe & Spencer Jones for the next 10 years?
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12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: The former
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12:21 |
Pat G: Baseball taketh a Strider, Baseball giveth a Strider (Jones)?
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12:22 |
Key Flaw: You can only have meat from one animal for the rest of your life. Chicken seems obvious to me, but pig has sausage, bacon, ham, pork chops…..
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12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: I keep dairy, right?
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12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: For me, it probably is chicken
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12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean, I love pork products, but I don’t eat them constantly. I haven’t had bacon since December.
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12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m already a fat guy, so I can’t eat like an asshole if I want to keep my non-weight measurables decent
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12:26 |
kmad: All-time bottom 5 Team wRC+
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12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: Are you asking me?
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12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: Probably a bunch of teams like the 1878 Monongahela Maroons or other teams I may or may not have made up
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12:28 |
Guest: Jose Altuve the voluptuous female elf rogue?
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12:28 |
Dan Szymborski: I guess so
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12:28 |
Dan Szymborski:
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12:29 |
Biscuit: I know there misses in every draft, but man Andrew Vaughn devolving into a low-OBP, below-average power hitter is really a surprising turn of events. Career negative WAR.
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12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: I still wonder what may have happened with a less weird development pattern
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12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: The poor guy debuted in the majors in 2021 after a year off and before that, hadn’t even really mastered high-A ball
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12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: You don’t often see first basemen barely slugging .400 in the Sally League sent nearly straight to the majors
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12:31 |
Leo Feingold: What causes discrepancies between different projection systems? For example Tristan McKenzie, has wildly different ZiPS and Steamer projections. Is there a certain player archetype that is inherently harder to project even with adequate data?
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12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve never found an obvious pattern
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12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: And it’s a difficult question to answer; I can say why ZiPS likes something, but I don’t have access to other systems
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12:31 |
Key Flaw: Have you played Baldur’s Gate 3? I played all the old Infinity Engine games, and BG3 just seems like it is a Gen-Z targeted edgelord-loving dating simulation based on D:OS. Should I eventually get it, or does my ambivelent reaction to Larian games mean I won’t like it?
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12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t played yet, it’s on my to do list
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12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d qualify as an edgelord as a youngster. Maybe an edgebaron?
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12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: I just had too many games to play and at this point, I probably won’t get around to it until Eiyuden Chronicle next week and by then, Trails Through Daybreak will be close enough that I won’t start another sprawling RPG at that point, especially with Final Fantasy XIV expansion coming out
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12:35 |
romorr: Jordan Westburg is crushing baseballs, Colton Cowser is crushing baseballs, Gunnar Henderson is him, but all I hear about is some 20 year old struggling. Can you write about that trio for me some day?
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12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean, they’re really awesome
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12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: Not sure I have a specific article in mind that would be interesting
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12:35 |
Zips user: Have you ever used your model to predict injury based on recent performance?
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12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve toyed around with neural networks trying to predict injury and despite a lot of time put into it, I have absolutely zero to show for it
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12:36 |
Pitcher usage: Will 6 man rotations become the norm or is mlb focused on keeping roster spots low vs pitchers healthier?
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12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they’ll become the norm
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12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: but I wouldn’t be surprised on seeing long relievers make a comeback
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12:36 |
Nervous in STL: This Cardinals offense can’t be this bad, can it? Goldschmidt showing signs of the cliff in your opinion?
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12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m worried about him. Was thinking about writing about him next week at some point
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12:37 |
Joe Shlabotnik: Is the 1971 article “Baseball Magic” by anthropologist (and former minor leaguer!) George Gmelch common knowledge among Fangraph-writer-types? If not, I hugely recommend it, as I think about it all the time in baseball and non-baseball contexts. Best when paired with the film “Trobriand Cricket.”
(TL;DR: baseball’s many superstitions tend to accumulate around the parts of the game that can’t be controlled by skill alone.)
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12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not actually familiar with it
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12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: BUt others may be
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12:37 |
Matt: What is your sense of Matt Manning? Had such a high FV and…couldn’t crack the rotation this year. Do you have hope here?
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12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Meh. I had him on my busts list too
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12:39 |
MLB Fan: did you find it refreshing how KC’s owner admitted he was told to try and squeeze money out of local politicians? watching Fischer leave Oakland makes me feel pretty gross inside
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12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: If your’e gonna grift, be honest about it!
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12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: My favorite thing was how Brett made an argument AGAINST the stadium without realizing it
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12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: saying how when he retired the Rangers opened up a new stadium and they’ve already replaced it
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12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: (The taxpayers were still paying for the last stadium)
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12:41 |
Guest: Hi! first timer here. Got a question, can’t seem to find the answer. In last night’s win for the Yankees, Volpe made a diving grab up the middle and then ripped a throw to first that seemed like a much harder than usual throw. He’s been rated with a suspect/average arm at Short, usually avg arm speed around 81. I’d love to know the velo on that throw if possible
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12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: Statcast has the data, but I don’t think it’s shared in that detail that you can look up the throw velocity of a play
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12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: but maybe I’m wrong
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12:42 |
Biscuit: Baty’s savant sliders are very “chilly” looking….very little power to start the year. You selling while that BA is still bright and shiny?
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12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they’re in a position to sell high or even sell mid
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12:42 |
Nate: Raise your hand if a month ago you thought Trevor Rogers would be Miami’s most valuable pitcher so far
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12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: Not me
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12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: Though I’ll defend my ROY pick of him until myd eath
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12:43 |
M’s Fan: White no longer in Tacoma.
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12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: I totally forgot he wasn’t there anymore
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12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: Though I apparently knew it at SOME point
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12:44 |
Dan Szymborski:
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12:45 |
Guest: How sticky is SweetSpot from year to year Dan, do you happen to know from the top of your head?
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12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: off the top of my head? I’m not sure other than halfway decent?
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12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually use tha tnumber for stuff
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12:45 |
I am the Apple: What will happen to ZiPS when you die? Not to be morbid, or anything
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12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m…not sure.
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12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: If I drop dead tomorrow, it probably goes to the grave with me
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12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: but I’ve given some thought on what comes next
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12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: On one hand, I like the idea of some of my work living on after I’m quickly forgotten
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12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: But on the other hand, this process enables future generations to have their say
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12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: So…I’m not sure
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12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: I guess it may depend on how quickly I go and when
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12:47 |
Ryan O’Hearn: Is Ryan O’Hearn’s hot start this season just small sample noise or is he having a late career breakout? I know ZiPS was not a fan when the Orioles picked him up, but he turned in a decent 2023 despite bad K/BB.
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12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: The projection has quickly improved!
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12:48 |
Doug: Why isn’t there a definitive luxury tax number reported for each team? SD has been said by some to have around $12m but that just doesn’t make any sense because why on God’s green earth wouldn’t they go with Pham for $3m? Even if Profar keeps up this miraculous hitting, they are trotting out Tyler Wade on the regular.
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12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s…complicated
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12:48 |
Section 34: Thank you Dan. I learned the 1970 Orioles should have batted the pitcher 6th! That’s something I didn’t know about lineup construction. Apparently you should bat your worst hitter 6th … and your second-worst hitter 9th.
Maybe it explains the success of lineup-out-of-a-hat gimmicks. Thanks for the link!
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12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: Wait, did it suggest that?
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12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: That’s odd, it used to work
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12:48 |
bb: Is your doctor onboard with your eat-every-other-day thing?
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12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had my yearly checkup in the interval
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12:49 |
Robo umps: The challenge system is 10x better than Auto-Ball/Strike system. Do you think MLB is stalling on this rollout for a specific reason?
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12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: MLB tends to be conservative
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12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of the challenges. Don’t make having the right call be something that’s gamed
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12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Just make the best call
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12:49 |
I am the Apple: How would ZiPS handle projecting Babe Ruth in today’s game? Is it easy?
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12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure ZiPS is prepared to deal with ALL the differences from 100 years ago to today
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12:50 |
Phil: Would you consider keeping a running Zips projection on the odds of the CWS losing 121 games, or is that too macabre?
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12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve already made so many macabre jokes about the White Sox
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12:50 |
Dan Szymborski:
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12:51 |
Dan Szymborski:
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12:53 |
Dan Szymborski:
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12:53 |
Dan Szymborski:
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12:53 |
Guest: Looking at 1B the the Defensive WAR looks, how can I say, weird? What makes a good defensive 1st Basemen? Is it range or does the 1B’s ability to pick up throws weigh in as I think that might be what most clubs value.
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12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: It tends to look weird because there simply aren’t a lot of plays that serve to differentiate a competent 1B and a less competent one
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12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: The range of scoops is relatively small
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12:54 |
Travis: How come baseball players don’t hold out or demand trades?
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12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: Because they mostly have guaranteed contracts and getting placed on the restricted list can cost them a year of free agency very quickly
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12:54 |
Sirras: In the back half of any given season, do you miss being able to respond to questions with “It’s April?” Or is it more fun to have data to delve into?
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12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: I like the variety
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12:55 |
Scott: Thanks for these chats Dan! Do you think the Dodgers will give Gavin Lux a longer leash because of the injury rust? If not, who gets the next every dayish opportunity? Is Miguel Vargas an option or are they looking at him exclusively as an OF now even with Pages ahead in the pecking order?
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12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re just not overflowing with great options
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12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: I think if they were willing to play Vargas at second, he woudln’t be entirely in the outfield for Okla City
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12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Anything they do would likely be some Rojas/Kiké patchwork
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12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Though it woudl totally be Dodgers if they called up Chris Owings and then he put up an .850 OPS
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12:57 |
Volpe: So. Among young players who do break out (assuming Volpe can at least be an average hitter this year), is 1st year or 2nd year more common?
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12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s a pattern
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12:57 |
SouthernDandy: Speaking of bad hitting at 1st, the Astros can’t trot out Jose Abreu for much longer. He looks like cornered prey in the batter’s box these days. Do you think they look for a trade soon?
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12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, they didn’t seem to care a lot about his awful 2023
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12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the organization is as well-run as it used to be
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12:59 |
Rob: Miguel Vargas has quickly become an afterthought for the Dodgers. Change of scenery guy? Or just not enough bat to justify no defensive home?
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12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I think he probably needs a new organization
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12:59 |
Wyatt: Where do you sharpen your coding skills for baseball related work? Asking for someone with an internship trying to get into front office/player dev work.
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1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Me? I don’t. I’m a mediocre at best coder who uses stuff that nobody uses anymore
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1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m the wrong guy to ask!
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1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Ain’t no team going to be impressed by knowing Visual Basic
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1:00 |
Bill: Baseball feels right with Mike Trout playing and playing well
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1:00 |
Kenny: Rosenthal said MLB GM’s don’t have to collude because they’re all Wall Street bankers who think the same. Isn’t this worse than collusion? Will MLB see more diversity in executive positions?
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1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Success breeds these changes
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1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Teams are analytically focused and cynical becuase that’s what works the best, it appears
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1:02 |
Babip Roberts: Obviously the dude was a unicorn, but how to explain Nolan Ryan? His UCL lasted through almost 3 decades of high-velocity, high-pitch count stress (see also Clemens/Johnson/et al to lesser extents). Any theories on why at least a few pitchers got out alive in the olden days, whereas none seem to do so now?
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1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Because they were the survivors
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1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: We’ll have survivors too, we just don’t get to know who they’ll be with a time machine.
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1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Injury rates were always really high
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1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Nolay Ryan is basically the dude who won Squid Game and then spent his winnings on hair dye
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1:04 |
yothere: When do you think we will see James Wood in a Nationals uniform?
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1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Well, to be technical, we HAVE seen him in a Nats uniform. I would be surprised if a callup was much after the ASB
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1:05 |
Phil: Would you buy a power boost for Connor Wong this year? Given he’s sort of middling in most respects, 20-25 HR power would make a difference in his being a legit starting catcher, I should think.
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1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: A little soon for that
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1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s three homers
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1:05 |
CoopDeVille: Last year I had the bright idea in April to drop Christian Walker for Connor Joe because of the StatCast data. Bad idea. I got sold on Ryan O’ Hearn last night. How much do you buy into statcast data as predictive of the season this early?
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1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Quite a lot of it is, especially for hitters
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1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I just ran some data for Jeff yesterday
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1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: based on 2023
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1:06 |
Dan Szymborski: I get 44 BIP for hitters being enough to make barrel rate as predictive as league-average barrel rate
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1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: and 37 for hard-hit rate
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1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: but for pitchers, it was 172 BIP for hard hit and 586 for barrel rate
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1:07 |
SouthernDandy: I prefer 90’s era JRPGs. You ever play Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy 9?
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1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Of course, many times!
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1:08 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m a sucker for IX
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1:08 |
Dan Szymborski: (CT too, but everyone is)
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1:08 |
Insert Witty Name Here: If you need a work question, it kinda fits in with baseball too with what some teams are doing with ticketing. Law enforcement agencies develop facial recognition software capable of identifying individuals in real-time using public surveillance networks and cross-referencing their images against government-held databases (driver’s licenses, etc.). The technology has some error rate, particularly for certain demographics. Is the use of this software, even with safeguards in place, an unreasonable search under the Fourth Amendment? Does it depend on how it’s used (targeted searches vs. blanket surveillance)?
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1:09 |
Dan Szymborski: I guess it comes down to how Kyllo covers it?
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1:10 |
Dan Szymborski: and I guess reasonableness is in part due to HOW accurate?
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1:10 |
Dan Szymborski: But I am not a lawyer, but this should be enough that we talked work
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1:10 |
Epstein’s Mother: Nick Castellanos is now 2+ years into his 5-year, $100 million contract, and is currently at negative total fWAR as a Phillie. Is it possible it gets to a point where the Phillies to punt on the money and use, say, Christian Pache in RF for a three CF outfield?
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1:10 |
Dan Szymborski: It might be, I’m touching on this
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1:11 |
Manfred’s Burner account: Does baseball need a version of Swift/Kelce? Have any suggestions?
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1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if MLB needs it
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1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: but if it does, I hope it’s something extremely random
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1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Like Alex Wood marries Olivia Rodrigo or something
|
1:12 |
ask a job-related question?: and give away my line of work?
|
1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re ultra specific, it’s probably not doxxable
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1:13 |
Billy: White isn’t in SLC either. I’m not sure where he is? I’d assume rehabbing in AZ?
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1:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Poor guy, maybe he’s on the roster but nobody noticed so he’s just hanging out at his house
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1:13 |
Dale: Hi Dan – is Volpe for real or will he come crashing down to earth?
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1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m bullish on him
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1:14 |
Billy: Won’t the Simpsons style Szymborski head-in-a-jar keep running the model?
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1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: If they figure out cryonics, there are way more people to unfreeze first
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1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: and I’m not sure if I’d be even into it if cryonics was confirmed as working
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1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I’d certainly be intellectually interested in knowing what happens the next 500 years
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1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: but beyond that, would I really be happy, living in a time in which everything/everyone I knew and cared about is long gone and forgotten?
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1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: While I like to think I’m a curious enough person that I’d be fine, I’m not really so sure
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1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: I know sometimes I look around and see how different people and the world is then the one I grew up in and I feel like a fish out of water
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1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: and I’m only 45
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1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Now, I don’t think 1992 is objectively BETTER, but it’s the reality I grew up in
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1:16 |
Bargile: The most appropriate thing you could do with ZiPS is leave it to the Rockies.
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1:16 |
SouthernDandy: What type of fasting routine do you go with?
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1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Alternate day
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1:17 |
Dan Szymborski: Now down 45 pounds since the end of the WS
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1:17 |
Dan Szymborski: Not drinking beer has been great help
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1:17 |
Zips user: Dan, we keep losing great baseball stuff every time someone gets tired of running a site or they get sick or die. I’d bet a lot of money that you could sell the site with rights to run it until you go so you can ensure it lives on, but you have to work hard on doing that. I hope you find a way to preserve your model for the future
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1:17 |
Dan Szymborski: I think David would be rather put out if I sold FanGraphs!
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1:18 |
1947: Is it even possible to create a script that accounts for the color line? And not just the line but the additional add ons (like not being able to eat/sleep in the same places) that added to the detriment for someone like Mays? I figuratively give the first few dozen Black players a lot of extra value, even if not WAR directly.
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1:18 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure you really can
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1:18 |
Dan Symborski’s Avatar: I’ll handle ZIPS when you pass, no worries.
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1:18 |
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Calling up Evan White (who is injured and played in only 2 games last year) should be the response to every team’s problems. The SS is not hitting? Call up Evan White. The No. 2 starter’s elbow hurts? Call up Evan White. The club’s owner threatens to move the team because he does not own enough revenue-generating real estate around the existing ballpark? Call up Evan White.
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1:18 |
jj: Abreu’s backup is Jon Singleton. Enough said
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1:18 |
Hi Dan: I’m a Data Engineer by trade and I’m curious, what does the ETL pipelines look like for ZIPS? Hand copy/paste into Excel?
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1:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I’m not THAT rudimentary
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1:19 |
Dan Szymborski: the only thing that is by hand is if I just want to project a single player
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1:20 |
Dan Szymborski: and I have to type in the name of the player I want to project
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1:20 |
Dan Szymborski: but everything required is then pulled from the database
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1:20 |
Travis: I’m of the minority opinion that Chrono Cross > Chrono Trigger. Are you with me?!
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1:20 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not, though I did enjoy Chrono Cross
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1:20 |
Dan Szymborski: I think Chrono Cross may be the last JRPG that I had real trouble with multiple bosses
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1:21 |
Dan Szymborski: (or did Xenogears come after Chrono Cross? I forget)
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1:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Miguel in Chrono Cross was a nightmare
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1:22 |
Dan Szymborski: not counting MMOs in the “real trouble with multiple bosses”
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1:23 |
Dan Szymborski: else it would be final fantasy XIV with the binding coil of bahamut and Hashmal for like the first three months when every raid would wipe two or three times against him
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1:23 |
Ronnie Woo Woo: Jane Fonda & Nolan Gorman would be a cute couple
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1:23 |
Guest: It’s Futurama, not Simpsons
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1:23 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Baseball literally has Vanessa Hudgens and Cole Tucker. Now, Tucker ain’t no Kelce…
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1:23 |
Ronnie Woo Woo: What type of feasting routine do you go with? I pig out on Cake, Beer, Pulled Pork, and Oysters
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1:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I just eat what I normally would
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1:24 |
Dan Szymborski: Alternate day fasting works for me because it sidesteps my biggest problem with dieting: PLANNING
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1:24 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m perfectly fine not eating for a day. But I don’t want to sit there and have to count shit
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1:24 |
ZinziBoy: What is your tie to Cincinnati? Why do you hate Skyline? I am Cinci born and bred. I’m not trolling, I’m genuinely curious about why you hate Skyline (other than that it looks like diarrhea).
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1:24 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like the chili as I much prefer a bowl of Texas red
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1:24 |
Dan Szymborski: My connection to Cincinnati is I live in the area and am a member of the Cincy BBWAA chapter
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1:25 |
Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to mosey on out for another week
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.