Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/2/2020

Dan Szymborski: And it has begun.

LFC Mike: Dan, Your new avatar reminds me of a young roguish Larry Fine footloose and fancy free with a devil may care attitude in the roaring 20’s.

Dan Szymborski: I went through all my pictures to find the weariest looking one.

Dan Szymborski: Now this is the most frightening one.

Dan Szymborski:

Stevil: Which single organization should be the most appealing to undrafted players that are determined or willing to play despite the 20k cap?

Dan Szymborski: Rays? You won’t have any expectations of being paid!

LFC Mike: It’s April?

Scot: No question, just a hearty thank you to you and everyone at FG for doing the chats and keeping the content coming along. You folks are great, the chats help break up the monotony of the (work) day.

Dan Szymborski: Hey Scot!

Guest: _______________ has cut his strikeout rate by 10 percentage points and boosted his exit velo and 3 mph. Is it real? … This is so sad.

Sean Huff-Scheidel: Hi Dan. Wanted to thank all of you for keeping FG running during all of this. Even though I’m never able to attend live chats, they’ve been a major bright spot in providing a sense of community, just through reading them after the fact.

Dan Szymborski: BUT THIS IS A LIVE CHAT

Matt: 5 years down the line, who do you see as the 2-3 best teams in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: A lot can happen in five years, so it’s hard to say. So I’d default to the better run teams with money like Dodgers/Yankees as safe bets

No games today: Do you think they’ll resume ST in Arizona/Florida?   Seems like June/July in those climates would be unpleasant – not to mention all the travel involved in getting everyone back out there.  How about a couple weeks of cross-town rival series?  Astros/Rangers, Cubs/ChiSox, etc??  Seems like you could pair teams off pretty easily to minimize travel.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say. I don’t think the travel is that big of a problem.

Madi: Give it to us straight, Dan. Is there a chance Fangraphs could fold? How much longer can you guys sustain the site?

Dan Szymborski: I think Dave’s statement is what he intended to stay!

Dan Szymborski: As said in statement, Dave’s made moves to keep the site from becoming insolvent. What’s forward for us is as who knows as it is for everyone.

Dan Szymborski: But I can safely say that everyone’s doing their best to bridge to whenever the next baseball season is.

Roberto Beers: A Dan, A Plan, A Pandemic, imednapanalpanada

Dan Szymborski: You laugh now, but you won’t when imednapanalpanada-22 cancels the 2022 season.

Matt Klentak: bigger hurdle for baseball to resume… domestic travel or daily testing of players/coaches/staff etc?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s the testing.

Dan Szymborski: The travel’s not really a big deal.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not domestic travel is actually *banned* and teams have their own charter arrangements.

BeefLoaf108: Dan, how are your cats adapting to #QuarantineLife??

Dan Szymborski: It’s pretty much the same for them as usual.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I took the cats out for dinner at restaurants

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Gonna give Artifact 2.0 a look? They won’t sell cards, so they have my attention. Artifact 1.0 had an awesome draft mode where you didn’t need to own anything, but wow that game died quickly.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but my expectations are limited.

Jason Two Shoes: Jose Altuve is running a .000/.000/.000 slash line. Cause to be concerned yet?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Jason N: Where does an open-faced sandwich sit on your chart?  And how rebellious is the meat ingredient if it’s a thick cut of turkey breast that you made in the oven vs the processed stuff from the deli/store?

Dan Szymborski: An open-faced sandwich is just an over-large hors d’oeuvre.

Jake: My wifi went out during my physics zoom class today rip

Dan Szymborski: You should make it a teachable physics lesson!

Ben: Are you a fan of Krzysztof Penderecki, the Polish composer who recently passed?

Dan Szymborski: I was, though not really his early work. Serialism of the Stockhausen variety leaves me cold.

Jake: do u like memes lmao

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

@RationalMLBFan: I understand wanting to try to play as many games in the 2020 season as possible, even if it means teams playing into October and the playoffs pushing into November; however, how late is too late that it would shorten the off-season too much and thereby compromise the 2021?

Dan Szymborski: I think December is probably too long.

Dan Szymborski: They can shorten spring training, after all.

Dan Szymborski: I personally think spring training is already long by two weeks.

Kei Igawa: In the event the 2020 season is cancelled, which players do you think will retire who would have played the season?

Dan Szymborski: I think probably Rodney and Colon. Officially axes Zobrist for sure

Dan Szymborski: Some of the marginal guys like Vargas

Ben: What’s the coolest or most memorable thing you’ve seen in person at a ballpark?

Dan Szymborski: Charlie Sheen pitching as we rooted for the Indians in Baltimore!

Chris: Reading the piece on the mariners lineup made me think how much they had in common with the washington nationals (prior to the nationals winning the title). Do they compare statistically? I can’t help but see best pitcher in baseball. Stars leaving but being replaced by young stars and a lot of losing in the playoffs

Dan Szymborski: Wait, I don’t think I read the piece!

Dan Szymborski: I assume that it’s about the A-Rod era M’s?

Dan Szymborski: There are a lot osimilarities

hscer: 5 years from now the only 2-3 teams will be the best 2-3 teams!

Dan Szymborski: Be forewarned in the poll – there’s no setting to make the Angels players plunk the Astros

JoshP: Hi Dan, is there a way to figure out which events in a baseball game are the most random (less correlated to trackable skills)? been thinking about the randomness of a shortened season re:team performance, and wondering about where that comes from on the micro-level

Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s build into a lot of the projection models.

Dan Szymborski: Generally in-play events are the most random

Slapshot: If your only choices for food were Skyline chili, or “chili” with beans in it, which would you pick?

Dan Szymborski: Chili with beans in it. I rather good beef and bean stew than bad chili

Dan Szymborski: I like beef and bean stew. It’s just not chili

Jake: did u get fooled a lot by april fools day stuff yesterday i did lol

Dan Szymborski: I was really annoyed about the dipshit touting the two hour COVID test that fooled news orgs

Anonymous: i’m using downtime to play through Dark Souls and Banjo-Kazooie. the tonal whiplash has me on the 15-day IL

JoshP: I would love to buy some merch, but I’m doing anyone any favors by wearing a Small. Y’all gonna have any luck adding merch any time soon?

Dan Szymborski: I believe this stuff is in the works.

Dan Szymborski: Like every business (well most), a pandemic that stopped our central revenue was quite a surprise!

Jake: tigers because i want to see how bad they can get wrecked

hscer: best April Fools I saw: https://www.chess.com/news/view/fide-candidates-resumes-antarctica

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think this should have been an April Fools moratorium year

Jake: no not Bartolo! We love Bartolo!

Josiah D: With the higher volatility of a shorter season, do you see any teams that might have been contending put less of a focus on bringing their prospects up this year? Thinking of guys like a Dustin May, who might have had a spot on the Dodgers roster, but who as an orginization may now value the extra year of service time more

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s a very real possibility

hscer: no the one I linked was actually good ; p

Carlos Rodon: Am I good?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe!

baseball: when do you think the all-star game will be scheduled??

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think we’ll have one of those this year

Dan Szymborski: So July something 2021

Jake: have u ever been to SSAC

Dan Szymborski: I have not!

baseball: do you think this will affect mike trout??

Dan Szymborski: If he gets sick, he’ll just mutate into a more powerful Mike Trout

baseball: HHHaaa!!!

Guest: just made a tuna sandwich and added chips on it to give it a crunch

Dan Szymborski: I like chips being saparate

The Botanist: Dan..Do you think Craig Stammen is upset he has never been described as hot as a pistil?…..Could leave a stigma.

Dan Szymborski: <groan>

Dan Szymborski: But acceptable in Quaranticity

Guest: Who are you more suspicious of starting the virus? The Red Sox trading Mookie Betts or the Astros getting people to forget about the scandal

Dan Szymborski: Reds I think

Dan Szymborski: Red Sox

Dan Szymborski: The Astros aren’t that tricky

Dan Szymborski: THEY USED A TRASH CAN

Dan Szymborski: that’s not exactly evil genius

Dan Szymborski: It would be like if in On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, Bond goes to all that trouble to find that Blofeld’s plan is to have his unwitting sleeper agents spit in people’s sandwiches so that it’s super gross

LFC Mike: Which players would you like to see a TV show about being quarantined together.   Rougned Odor and Jose Bautista could be quite entertaining.

Dan Szymborski: Trevor Bauer and Justin Verlander

Matt Klentak: is anyone else just re reading all of prospect lists again?

Roberto Beers: More career threatening: valley fever or covid19?

Dan Szymborski: Probably valley fever

Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re the dude who died

Dan Szymborski: I would think we’d have at least *a* COVID fatality in MLB

Stevil: Will Colorado ever trust another fielding prospect in a regular role?

Dan Szymborski: They might accidentally fall into competence at some point

hscer: what’s more likely to end the Great Toilet Paper Shortage–some “price gouging” allowances, or people realize they won’t be crapping themselves all the time from tomorrow to 2024?

Dan Szymborski: The latter

Dan Szymborski: The crappy toilet paper is already slowly filtering back into stores

Dan Szymborski: The last few days, I could have very easily bought store brand or Scott’s

Dan Szymborski: The toilet paper that allows this creepy stuff to happen?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: hoarded for a little while

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s literally the closest a toilet paper commercial has come to saying LOOK, THERE’S NO FECAL MATTER HERE

Jake: lebron or mj

Dan Szymborski: Still gotta be mj

guest: Do you have more authority over chili than USDA? Sounds like beans are allowed. “6.3.1 Type I, chili with beans. The Type I, chili with beans must meet the definitions and standards of identity or composition (9 CFR § 319.301 and 381.167). 5 Chili with beans contains water, tomato concentrates (21 CFR § 155.191) (tomato paste, tomato sauce, tomato puree, or tomato pulp) tomatoes in juice, concentrated crushed tomatoes6 , corn flour, and chili powder. The Type I, chili with beans may contain lentils, green chilies, cornstarch, textured soy flour, onions, sugar, salt, jalapeño peppers, dehydrated onions, chipotle chili pepper, lime juice concentrate, xanthan gum, soy lecithin, acetic acid, spices, dehydrated garlic, cilantro, and natural flavorings.”

Dan Szymborski: USDA is safety, not artistry!

baseball: what do you think about the draft…I think 10 rounds would be better for the MILB

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure yet

hscer: Trevor Bauer and anyone, really…

LFC Mike: Don’t soft petal the Botanist pun

Dan Szymborski: I’d ban you, but these chats are slow enough right now

Dbo: Have you watched Tiger King yet?

Dan Szymborski: I have not!

Dan Szymborski: The memes and references have snuck up so quickly I haven’t had time to move it up in my viewing queue

Matt Klentak: where did you find the tv character match test

Dan Szymborski: https://openpsychometrics.org/tests/characters/1.php

Dan Szymborski: The website’s being hit hard though

hscer: where in the constitution did they enumerate the power of the executive branch to determine bean content in stew?

Dan Szymborski: BINGO

Jake: necessary and proper clause

Dan Szymborski: UNECESSARY AND IMPROPER

Dbo: The fact that the chili bean exists indicates that it lives in the chili, LET THE BEAN IN ITS HOME DAN!

Dan Szymborski: The kidney bean doesn’t filter urine

Sam: What are you more passionate about: beans in chili or what constitutes a sandwich? Which would you give ground on first?

Dan Szymborski: Beans in chili

Dan Szymborski: If I go out, I can order a sandwich however I want

Dan Szymborski: but when a place has chili, your choice is the chili they have

Dan Szymborski: they’re not picking out beans for you

Guest: We need a bean in chili poll. This is democracy.

Dan Szymborski:

Jake: least favorite household chore?

Dan Szymborski: anything that involves bleach. I hate the smell of chlorine and it’s impossible to get it completely off your hand

Jake: best coding languages to learn for aspiring analysts?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a coder!

Dan Szymborski: but Python

Roberto Beers: No option for a single bean in my chili?

Dan Szymborski: no

Guest: That is a BAD POLL DAN

Dan Szymborski: You’re just mad that YOU LOVE HAROLD REYNOLDS

Dbo: Can we do a sandwich poll next?

Dan Szymborski:

Matt Klentak: Dan Im sure youre very busy the rest of the day. Cancel everything & watch all 7 episodes of Tiger King. They are only 40 minutes, your cats will approve

Dan Szymborski: I actually have a lot to do!

Dreamy: What happens to the Field of Dreams game?

Dan Szymborski: Presumably canceled?

Brian D: Do the unwritten rules carry over to next year, or are Astros hitters rooting for the whole season to be canceled so they can be absolved / not besieged by HBPs?

Dan Szymborski: Unwritten rules are like anti-vaccines. As long as you could think of an idiotic reason to follow it, you can follow it

Dbo: Boooooooooooo, this isn’t a democracy this is a shamocracy

Dan Szymborski:

Sam: Way to bias the poll. I support beans in chili but never Harold Reynolds as an analyst

Dan Szymborski: It says right there you do!

Jake: was harold reynolds actually good he retired like 10 years before i was born

Dan Szymborski: He had his moments as a player

LFC Mike: If you put chili with bean between two slices of bread  you get_______?

Dan Szymborski: Bean-beef stew-based sloppy Joe.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll just call it a Sloppy Hank.

Roberto Beers: I’m a good beanboy and I need my one bean! #teamonebean

Dbo: sloppy joe with beans

Jake: u get chili with bean between two slices of bread

Jake: a=a by reflexive property

guest: Definitely Python to the coding question.

Dan Szymborski: Dbo, stand by the door and wait for the police, please!

Roberto Beers: Any deck you’re looking forward to tackling in the next hearthstone expansion?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been so distracted I haven’t really looked to much at the new cards

Dan Szymborski: Though I will since they already have my money lol

Matt Klentak: Cancel everything- blame it on the weather or something, im sure theres an excuse you could think of

Dbo: Can you just simulate the season and perform analysis on that

hscer: Some companies, in products they label as chili, will identify whether the product has beans or does not have beans, as opposed to calling one chili and the other chili with/without beans. Is this a fair compromise or does it represent a form of favoritism?

Dan Szymborski: They have to communicate their product to people with bad ideas

Dan Szymborski: kinda like how everyone knows that taco salad isn’t a taco or a salad

hscer: surely the rule that Sloppy Joes are beanless is much firmer than the chili-bean rule…

LFC Mike: and I was going to get banned for a bad floral pun?

Dan Szymborski: You wanna go to jail with Dbo?

Dbo: I’m moving to Canada where they put gravy on their fries

Dan Szymborski:

Roberto Beers: Sunk cost I guess you’re playing Chone Figgins Druid?

hscer: not just gravy, gravy and cheese curds

Abie H: Does ZIPS take into account that some players that tend to have stronger first/second halves? If so, how will it handle the shortened season?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually found predictive value in this. As many players have first half/second half patterns as you would expect from random chance

LFC Mike: Dbo…top bunk  or bottom bunk?

Nico: Should we expect free agent contracts to go down next offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect yes. Even in a full V economic recovery, there’s a lot of uncertainty

Jake: bro its cold in canada lol

Roberto Beers: Did you play project goat?

Dan Szymborski: I did not.

Dbo: a taco salad is a salad, a salad is just a mixture of things. People always think of garden salad even though its a subcategory

Dan Szymborski: then everything is saald

Dan Szymborski: salad

Dan Szymborski: My box of random screws that were left over when I fixed something is a salad

tootblan: Doesn’t it seem like the language MLB has created around restarting the season make it nearly impossible? There was something to the effect that travel bans and mass gathering restrictions must be lifted for every state that  has a team

Dan Szymborski: They did say they were open to other alternatives

LFC Mike: Dbo is gunning for solitary confinement

Roberto Beers: This sentence is a salad?

Dbo: It can only be a mixture of small pieces of food, like a fruit salad is a salad

Roberto Beers: AM I A SALAD?

hscer: guess we need a structure/ingredient salad matrix

Dan Szymborski: See? You give Dbo chili authority and now the word salad breaks loose in all hell

Abie H: Are yearly suspensions technically being “served” right now? I know they said Domingo German’s suspension wouldn’t start counting because it goes by games played. But assuming the possibility of no 2020 season does Hinch get to come back from baseball with no penalty?

Dan Szymborski: They do because he was suspended until a date.

Dan Szymborski: It ought to be the same for players, honestly.

Dan Szymborski: A prisoner who is in a coma still serves time in a coma even if there’s no possibility of them exercising freedom during their coma

Big Joey: J.D. Davis or Schwarber?

Dan Szymborski: Schwarb

Dbo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salad

Dan Szymborski: This is the same site that declared that Philip Roth was not a reliable source for what Philip Roth believed.

Dan Szymborski: https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/an-open-letter-to-wikipedi…

Dan Szymborski: TLDR version: Roth said that contrary to the wiki at the time, Anatole Broyard was not the basis for The Human Stain.

Dan Szymborski: Wikipedia essentially told him that he could only change that in the wikipedia entry if he found a secondary source stating that it was his opinion.

Big Joey: What’s your guess: MLB will use a juiced ball or dejuiced ball?

Dan Szymborski: juiced

Jake: ok lets stop with this salad bullshit

Sam: I for one welcome our new all-salad universe

baseball: should the MLB cut the MILB teams???Just in case

Dan Szymborski: no

Terry Jeffords: Defending Harold Reynolds isn’t a popular opinion around here but I respect his, ahem, game. He pullllls.

World Series location: I’ve been reading proposals for the season which cancel the all star game (the Dodgers are scheduled to host) and to put the World Series there instead.  If this happens, Dodgers fans get to celebrate having the world series in town, right? Right?!

Dan Szymborski: My bigger worry for Dodgers would be what happens if they never get Mookie?

LFC Mike: It’s April!

Jake: lmao new conspiracy hinch did corona so he wouldn’t miss the season

hscer: “You give Dbo chili authority and now the word salad breaks loose in all hell” is one of the greatest sentences you’ve ever written

Guest: My first act of order is to promote Guy Fieri from the mayor of Flavortown to the Secretary of Food Definitions

Guest: Which is better: Sheetz or Wawa

Dan Szymborski: Wawa

Dan Szymborski: But Sheetz is more convenient for me as it’s on major highways I travel

Craig Stammen: It was nice just to see my name on a chat….

Jake: wawa

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, time for me to take off for another baseball-free week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! please come again. And read our articles! The traffic you provide helps us get through this troubled time.