Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/28/22

BettsBellingerCaruso: East Coasters that send 8AM meeting requests I hope they metaphorically get hit with terrible BABIP luck for the rest of their lives that is all

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon to people with righteous time zones! Good morning to the rest of you.

Ryan Breynolds: When is it time to start panicking with Nick Gonzales? The K-rate seems to be a real problem.

Dan Szymborski: Nick Martinez?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly more than three games. Especially because his plate discipline numbers suggest a lower walk rate.

Dan Szymborski: I’d actually be more worried that he’s not throwing as hard as he was overseas.

Flags Fly Forever: Say something nice about the Nationals (outside Ted Williams Jr.)

Dan Szymborski: Even when he’s erratic, Josiah Gray misses bats.

Guest: How closely does Steven Kwan comp to Richie Ashburn for ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: 73rd it looks like.

If you don’t know, now Ynoa: On a scale of 1 to 10, how excited are you for Acuna’s return today?

Dan Szymborski: 11

Duchess: Had to autodraft in a 15 teamer…set all the values but ended up with like a $25 staff. Was able to snag Greene, Lodolo and Nestor off the waivers early, but still feel like I need a rotation anchor. MI options are Baez, Adames, Polanco and B Lowe. Offered Sandy A. for Baez….seems like a no brainer?

Dan Szymborski: I would take it; I love Alcantara leather.

Gir: Is Charlie Morton done?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that.

What’s that Odor: Anything wrong with Bryan Reynolds or is it just April and he’ll be good in 3 days

Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me tap the sign!

David: What’s the deal with Robbie Ray’s velocity?

Dan Szymborski: I couldn’t tell you why, but it’s concerning when coupled with the fact that he’s not missing bats very well this year.

Guest: Does ZiPS have an opinion on who is most likely to be the next player with 3000 hits? Are any players above like 25% chance of getting there?

Dan Szymborski: I did an article on this last year! It hasn’t changed much since we’re basically talking about a month of play since then

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-3000-hit-club-is-closed-for-maintenanc…

JC: How are you feeling about your Mike Trout bust prediction?

Dan Szymborski: Well, so far, he isn’t returning to being a normal star, which is what I worried about.

Dan Szymborski: And remember, as i clearly state over and over again in the piece, I think of bust in relative terms. Mike Trout, Not a Good Player, was almost never going to be in the cards.

Don Juan: Have you ever met someone else with more than 5 consonants before the first vowel in their last name?

Dan Szymborski: SOMETIMES Y

Guest: what’s for lunch today dan

Dan Szymborski: I was too lazy to go upstairs and make lunch

Dan Szymborski: so lunch has been the bottom of a bag of Poppycock, Pecan Delight flavor.

Jefferson: Did you plan this chat so you could say “It’s April” one more time?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the Szymborian calendar.

Alan: Is Packy Naughton the baseball name that sounds most like an old-timey gangster?  Asking for science, of course.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I made the Boardwalk Empire joke last year and it turned out when I checked afterwards that a billion others already had! I was very sad.

Trey: Is it weird that Trout hasn’t attempted to steal a base yet despite still being 98th percentile in sprint speed?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot more to lose with Trout stealing bases than to gain.

John: Which teams do you believe do the best job with their projection systems which are similar to yours? What would separate one team’s system from others?

Dan Szymborski: I’m  not sure I can really answer this question; even teams that buy my data don’t talk to me about how they’re using it and they certainly don’t give me their projections. Just on a general level, I would expect that the more competent front offices do a better job with projections, but that’s just a general correlation.

Baseball Gods: What is wrong with Swanson and Votto? Can they turn their putrid starts around?

Dan Szymborski: Swanson I’m still cautiously hopeful. Votto, well, I’m writing a piece on THAT

Mick Donfort: your opinion on the new defensive WAR changes?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s an improvement.

Dan Szymborski: While I can’t share everything we talk about in private, I don’t think Ben (I think it was Ben) won’t mind if I mention his joke that “now we have to call it penultimate zone rating.”

Adam: Which retired pitcher 40 or older do you think would be most likely to throw 6 shutout innings if called upon to start a game tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski: Buehrle

Brandon: Are the 2022 Sox just the 2021 Twins or do you think they’ll turn it around?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s generally too soon to panic

Kolbe: Why not just keep the “juiced” ball and push back fences. Should increase babip and encourage more contact, also encourage more speed in the game.

Dan Szymborski: Problem is nobody can even get real info on WHAT balls we’re ACTUALLy using at any given time

Kevin: Any thoughts as to why Sandy Alcantara isn’t generating more strikeouts with his filthy stuff?

Dan Szymborski: This question has perplexed me.

Trey: Do you play WARdle?

Dan Szymborski: I do, but not every day.

Guest: Most impressive start to the season: Gausman, Rodon or Pablo Lopez (pablo stan)?

Dan Szymborski: It’s always going to be my Gauze!

Rockman: Any insights r.e. Mountcastle’s slow start?  Thinking he’ll come around or does the data suggest no?

Dan Szymborski: While the data suggests better performance

Dan Szymborski: Guys, the admonition about April is even MORE admonition-y since we started a week late.

Todd Bonzalez: Do you plan to repost verbatim the article that (I think) you wrote several years ago if the Reds repeat their 3-17 start?

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cincinnatis-playoff-odds-are-worse-than-th…

Dan Szymborski: Too many different players!

Eddie Waitkus: What would you rather have: low Hard Hit % or high K %?

Dan Szymborski: Depends

Galen: Could Nolan Gorman help the Cardinals? Or is that K rate too worrisome?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. No.

Dan Szymborski: It’s the thing I warned people about with Bryant

Dan Szymborski: back when he was a prospect

Dan Szymborski: Don’t get too upset about strikeout rate for a dude who is destroying the league

Dan Szymborski: Gorman is slugging .800 with an OPS over 1.200. He’s *incentivized* to be aggressive.

David: Dan is this actually the year for my Mariners? But like, actually for real this time?

Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously hopeful, though I still had the Astros a bit better at the start of the season

Perplexed: Matt Brash and Eduardo Rodriquez sitting as FAs staring at me with those puppy dog eyes, saying “Please sir, pick me up.” Should I grab one/both? Rodriquez’s schedule looks like a guantlet over the next 4-6 weeks. Brash can’t keep it in the zone.

Dan Szymborski: I’m still stanning E-Rod

Mike Trout: Dan, I know it is early, but so far I am leading the AL in WAR, the majors in wRC+ and have the lowest K% of my career. Are you slightly nervous about your bust prediction for me or still pretty confident I’m coming down to earth this year?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve made a multitude of projections and predictions over the years and quite a lot of them are wrong. I’m supposed to be wrong. If I got bothered by that at this point, I’m not doing my job very well. I don’t have Biff Tannen’s almanac.

Dan Szymborski: I’m certainly not going to be upset if me being wrong results in something cool happening.

Dan Szymborski: It’s very unlikely that I reach 100 with perfect health. If I’m still going about my day happily in 2078, I’m not going to complain about that.

Todd Bonzalez: For incentive reasons, shouldn’t fines and penalties go to causes that Teams DON’T support? Imagine for instance the money the Yankees sent to the league went to support Mustache Rights instead of Irma relief 🤣

Dan Szymborski: I’m all for that.

Norman Golan: Zips predictions for gorman?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him as a 2.4 WAR guy in a full season coming into the year, so I doubt that’s gone down at alL!

Thomas: Kevin Gausman’s start has been amazing. 24.2 IP, 11.31 K/9, 0 walks, 0 home runs. 0.56 FIP. I don’t really have a question, just want to marvel at it

Tacoby Bellsbury: what is your stance on peanut sauce

Dan Szymborski: I like peanut sauce

Dan Szymborski: I’m a fan of peanuts

Trey: If robo-umps come to MLB, how will that change the way catchers are trained at the amateur level? Obviously we’ll still have human umpires in high school and college, so will catchers still hone the craft of framing? Or will emphasis be placed more on blocking and throwing – which will presumably become more of the defensive value for catchers in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine little will be changed

Adam: Yesterday a 9-year-old on my son’s little league team started telling me, unprompted, about all the things he sees on TikTok, and now I think I know what it feels like to be Murray Chass.

ZiPS and Prospects: Do you appreciate that the prospect evaluators take longer looks at the people that ZiPS loves? See Bryan Ramos write-up for White Sox.

Dan Szymborski: As the saying goes, all models are wrong, some are useful.

Dan Szymborski: If people are finding use for my system, then it’s doing my job.

Dan Szymborski: I know I get a TON of knowledge from the prospect gang.

John: Do teams that buy your data buy the whole data set? Or request a specific look at something? Are those purchases ad hoc or part of some blanket arrangement?

Dan Szymborski: It depends. What teams need from me isn’t even always ZiPS.

Dan Szymborski: Naturally, this makes navigating conflicts of interest very difficult to navigate at times.

Dan Szymborski: As such, I still go by the policy that ESPN agreed to with me in 2010: I can sell data, so long as I don’t offer any advisory opinion and don’t discriminate about tasks I take or don’t take.

Kyle Wright: Have I really figured it out? Or is too soon to say?

Dan Szymborski: Wright’s an interesting case.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t say exactly why the othe projection systems weren’t huge on him either.

Dan Szymborski: But I can say for ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: In the case of Wright, is was the past that was dragging him down

Dan Szymborski: but ZiPS has him with a nice minor league translation for 2021

Dan Szymborski:

Matt (Oceanside): How about this idea to test the balls that MLB is using. We start a crowd-source for people that catch foul balls during games to sell them to us and then we test them……WHAT SAY YOU!!! 🙂 Thanks for the chat Dan! Love you dude!

Dan Szymborski: That’s kinda what Dr. Meredith Wills has been doing!

Dan Szymborski: That’s one of her sources for testing balls

danny mcgraw: Does Judge get 7 years in FA?

Dan Szymborski: No

NashvillleSounds: If more relievers had exuberant mustaches and amusing nicknames, would we care less about starters just going through the order twice?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Freddy Peralta: Did you know that I currently have the highest K/9 out of all pitchers in MLB history with at least 50 games started? (Until Corbin Burnes starts 5 more games at least) Do you think if I was on a different team, I would get more appreciation?

Dan Szymborski: I did not.

Michael Scott: Some Braves fan are concerned that the gap between their xwoba (2nd in mlb) and actual runs is a product of the new ball/environment.  How valid of a concern is this to you?

Dan Szymborski: xwoba requires some calibration, so i wouldn’t worry about it this early

HornsUp: There is a 6.1% chance the Dodgers miss the playoffs is a thing only a simulator would say.

Dan Szymborski: Weird things happen sometimes.

Dan Szymborski: The Padres last year had the worst late season run by a contender since the 86 Orioles

Insert Witty Name Here: Does your mom like baseball? Does she understand what you do for a living?

Dan Szymborski: Not particularly, not particularly

Dan Szymborski: I mean she understands that I’m a baseball writer

Dan Szymborski: None of my family and few of my friends are into baseball at all.

Dan Szymborski: My dad and my mom’s dad were the two people in my family really into baseball (the latter is the guy who got me into sabermetrics as a seven-year-old)

Dan Szymborski: But dad died in 1997 and my grandfather in 2006.

Grant: Dan, unfortunately, even Biff Tannen wouldn’t be able to predict the 2022 season, seeing as his almanac only goes until 2015.

Insert Witty Name Here: Will we get a lightening round today?

Dan Szymborski: We can do one.

Guest: how scared should i be on a scale of 1-10

Dan Szymborski: 2.

Dan Szymborski: Most of the things that people are scared about are things that they have no control over. And getting scared about things you have no control over just prevents you from living your best life.

Dan Szymborski: But some things, like colon cancer, that you might be scared about, you can do things, like get a colonoscopy!

DEF: Dan, any idea on when the projection disk will be out for Diamond Mind?

Dan Szymborski: No, they have the data, but I don’t control the time frame after that.

Dan Szymborski: The crunch this April messed up all our normal timelines

MeDeKe: I suspect that the prior question about Nick Gonzales really was referring to the Pirates’ 2B prospect, who is currently sporting > 34% K% in AA. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, people usually ask Eric about random prospects rather than me!

Dan Szymborski: My apologies.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried about ANYONE’s two week stretch

matt w: I grade drafts by how funny the player’s names are when you spoonerize them, and after Bam Sachmann, 2021 is BLEAK.

Anyway I think the Nick Gonzales question was about the Pirates’ 2020 1st rounder.

What’s that Odor: Did you see Katoh’s rick rolling everyone with his walk-up song? Seems like the most likeable guy, happy he got his first hit!

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t dangit!

Brandon Marsh: Are you a fan? Think he can 15/30/.300 in a full season of playing time?

Dan Szymborski: Call me skeptical

Tacoby Bellsbury: Favorite type of lightning?

Dan Szymborski: White Lightning, of course

Trey: When you try to name every MLB team in your mind, what are the 1-2 teams that always take a second to come to mind?

Dan Szymborski: There isn’t one simply because I go over lists of MLB teams constantly

Dan Szymborski: HOWEVER

Dan Szymborski: if you came up to me in the street and pointed a gun at me and gave me one second to blurt out what division the Brewers and Astros are in, I’m certain I would say AL East and NL West.

Trey: Not Lightning McQueen?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a kind of McQueen, not a kind of lightning

Joe: What does ZiPS say Musgrove should get as a FA this offseason (assuming he puts up a year like last year)?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says 5/121 for Calamity Joe

Dan Szymborski: Dangit, I had the neural network make Joe Musgrove nicknames a couple weeks ago

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: After all the complaints about the Yankees offseason, maybe they’re actually… good? They could probably use another left handed bench bat but this is probably the most complete Yankees team since 2018.

Dan Szymborski: I’d like a little more depth, but the doom predicted for Yankees was too early

brad penny for your thoughts: if the league does go to robot umps, would you prefer an actual robot behind home plate?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Especially if it’s armed.

Regally Speaking: Is Santana actually blocking Pratto?

Dan Szymborski: If Santana continues to hit .100, he can’t block anyone!

Steve O: Wait, so you think Judge gets less than what the Yankees offered him?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly? Yes. If I had been his agent, I would have advised taking the deal.

Dan Szymborski: Healthy Judge is awesome, but teams take a gimlet eyed gaze at 31-year-old corner outfielders with an injury history

Josh R: I hate to be that guy, but I feel like the Trevor Bauer situation has gotten a bit ridiculous.  With charges being dropped and seeing that he has already missed 4 months, what else has to happen?  I think the guy is completely unpleasant and maybe much worse and I don’t care if he is released and never sees MLB again, but I do think it is time to make the decision on his case.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell because we dont’ know all the discussions between Bauer’s representatives and MLB

D in Lanc: Does FG take into account park factors in minor league parks when adjusting wrc+?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I don’t manage that part.

Phil: If I were an umpire, and had been trained to call balls and strikes had been doing it well for years (in other words, not A. Hernandez), I would not be happy about calling them based on a computer voice in my ear–I would want that task assigned to somebody who knew that’s what he/she/they were hired to do, or, indeed, just have big screens visible to everyone on the field. But, now that I think about it, maybe I would feel differently if I were the head of the umpire’s union. I guess this isn’t a question.

Dan Szymborski: Many tasks are replaced more effectively than technology.

Dan Szymborski: There’s still a TON o fthings for an umpire to do

Steve O: Sweet deal for Bauer though (outside of the allegations, obviously). He gets to not play AND still earn a paycheck. Saving mileage on his arm. I’m not sure a team will be interested in him though. We’ve seen domestic abusers get multiple opportunities but we haven’t seen a domestic abuser AND a complete nut case.

Cynthia: Have you run projections on NPB players who aren’t likely to go to the US? I’d be interested in how guys like Yuki Yanagita (.363/.469/.632 as a 26 year-old CFer) projected in their prime.

Dan Szymborski: I do, but not part as the standard data set, but when I need it for something like curiosity or an article

Trey: In the MCU, Brooklyn Dodgers fan Steve Rogers lived from 1918-1945, then was frozen, and returned from 2011-2023. Is Steve Rogers a Mets fan?

Dan Szymborski: No, I think to be a Mets fan, the team has to break your heart a bunch as a kid

Zach: Does the rate at which players (pitchers particularly) are overhauling their approach make predictions/projections more difficult or volatile? Maybe we just hear about it more now, but it does feel like with all the tech and teaching some guys can go from fringe MLB guy to star without the usual track record

Dan Szymborski: In practice, there hasn’t been an increase in the error bars

Dan Szymborski: Well, until 2020, which is hard to separate out

Brad NJ: Dan, Cole is back to being Cole, Cortes seems to be legit, Sevy ditched the slider and looks like he may be able to stay healthy because of it, Monty is solid, Taillon ERA and XFIP are 3.00 and 3.01.  Is it me or do the Yankees suddenly look like Starting Pitching is a strength, not to mention King seems like he is emerging as well.  Seems like the big problem will be managing innings.  Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I don’t understand why this is all a surprise!

Trout: Trout was amazing last year and then he got hurt. I mean, I don’t want that to happen, but I feel like him being super for a few weeks hardly precludes a not-superstar-value season.

Dan Szymborski: “He wouldn’t be a traditional bust, but given his status as quite possibly the best player most of us will ever see, him becoming just a normal superstar will feel almost devastating as a baseball fan.”

Dan Szymborski: If he’s the MVP, I guarantee you that there will be people that will have moved my “maybe just a normal superstar” prediction to “SZYMBORSKI SAID HE WOULD SUCK LIKE PUJOLS DID”

Grant: Dan, why do you hate Mike Trout?

Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s do a lightning round and see if y’all are still interested in that randomness.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t done this since the regular season last year.

Dan Szymborski: LIGHTNING ROUND TIME! The question MUST be answered, as long as it’s not about baseball, with the usual exceptions (things said in confidence, excessively personal).

Cynthia: Thoughts on the novel Siddhartha by Herman Hesse?

Dan Szymborski: Embarrassingly, though I’m generally well-read, I’ve never read it.

Jeb: You need a Reds COO Hearthstone card

Dan Szymborski: I made a krall

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: has ben ever coerced you into playing board games with him

Dan Szymborski: He has not, though I would like him to.

danny mcgraw: if you were a type of ice cream, which one would you be

Dan Szymborski: Pistachio.

Ampersand: Do you have a garden?

Dan Szymborski: I do not, nobody in my family has a green thumb.

danny mcgraw: if you had a super power, what would it be??/

Dan Szymborski: Predicting stuff!

Christian Colon for Men: You like Spumoni?

Dan Szymborski: I do. I enjoy fruit in pretty much any dessert.

Christian Colon for Men: If superhero, cape or no cape?

Dan Szymborski: Cape.

Ampersand: Bacon or sausage?

Dan Szymborski: Sausage.

Christian Colon for Men: Best amusement park ride?

Dan Szymborski: Lazy river at water parks in water parks they let you bring beer in.

Dan Szymborski: (There’s one near Cincy that does)

Dan Szymborski: The Beach, I think it’s called.

Dan Szymborski: They also have these giant alcohol slushies there and nobody cares where you carry them.

Dan Szymborski: I was taking those on the water slide.

Dan Szymborski: and the wave pool

Yo-Yo: FF7 Remake — yay or nay?

Dan Szymborski: It’s still on my to do list. I’m likely not playing it until I can play the whole thing.

727 in 614: What would Wander Franco’s AIM chat name be?

Dan Szymborski: Wanderlust

Christian Colon for Men: Best Huey Lewis track?

Dan Szymborski: Heart and Soul

727 in 614: Not Francophile?

Christian Colon for Men: Your mom got you one of those mini-cereal packs — which one do you eat first?

Dan Szymborski: If I recall them correctly, Rice Krispies

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like very sweet cereal, so I didn’t usually get those.

Dan Szymborski: I used to bring an extra Hi-C Ecto Cooler to elementary school as a kid because I could trade it to Pat Fitzsimmons at lunch for Quaker Oat Squares.

Grant: Joe Jackson the ballplayer or musical artist?

Dan Szymborski: Same person.

Dan Szymborski:

Santos L Helper: Favorite Simpsons character?

Dan Szymborski: Gil Gunderson

Dan Szymborski: if one-offs are allowed, Hank Scorpip

Dan Szymborski: Scorpio

Yo-Yo: How is Pat Fitzsimmons doing nowadays?

Dan Szymborski: I actually asked my friend Phil about this in December since he knew Pat, but he hasn’t talked to Pat in a long time either

Dan Szymborski: I kinda fell out of touch because I was just on the wrong side of I-695 so I was the only kid in my fifth grade class to go to Dumbarton instead of Ridgely

Richwp: Best food in Chicago…

Dan Szymborski: Overall frontera grill is my favorite, for everyday stuff, I love portillo’s

Nooooo: Standard, wild or battlegrounds? Nobody plays duels or arena.

Dan Szymborski: BG mostly

Yo-Yo: Favorite Arrested Development story arc?

Dan Szymborski: Mr. F

Guest: You might like mathler (mathler.com) better than Wordle – when you do well they will invite you to try the harder version

Steve O: best fictional book?

Dan Szymborski: ship of theseus? I’m trying to remember books within books now

Steve O: Worst food take?

Dan Szymborski: that dude who was made fun of on twitter a couple years ago for not liking limes with tacos

Nooooo: Thoughts on frogs + baron? Need toning down? Nothing like a 2/2 rat turning into 7 300/300s.

Dan Szymborski: from the stats, it’s not a problem

Portillo’s?: We are league average in our food in Chicago, but good outside of Chicago. A local hole in the wall can always beat us at individual items. But we have a high floor.

Christian Colon for Men: Favorite 1970s TV variety show?

Dan Szymborski: muppet show

Guest: Like Scorpio, do you love German beer?

Dan Szymborski: of course

Gamptrak: Mustard preference?

Dan Szymborski: brown and coarse

Christian Colon for Men: Best tropical vacation?

Dan Szymborski: Turks and Caicos

Christian Colon for Men: But would you remake Fast & Furious 7?

Dan Szymborski: No

Steve O: Best TV show in recent memory? Like last 5 years or so.

Dan Szymborski: Still It’s Always Sunny

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to go!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! Hope to see you all next week.

Pladimir Vutin: Russia or Ukraine?

Dan Szymborski: ukra