Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/1/25

Dan Szymborski: It’s time for chat!

Dan Szymborski: https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1852454076229022034

Dan: Aaron. Judge.

You Buying…: Wilyer Abreu’s start? His k-rate is a smooch above where you’d probably like it to be but the underlying metrics seem to really support this breakout. ZiPS was already the most bullish projection system on him and hopefully that continues, for my fantasy team’s sake.

dylan: Wilyer Abreu is having an MVP caliber season and it isn’t close!!!!!

Dan Szymborski: He has an above-average contact rate!

Dan Szymborski: If you have a wRC+ of 166, you can do whatever you want to

Dan Szymborski: within reason, at least. If you have a wRC+ because you’re kidnapping people and performing ritual sacrifice, I think you gotta stop that

dylan: Do you ever think about Franchy Cordero’s 480 feet+ homeruns?

Dan Szymborski: poro Franchy, he was too beautiful for this world

dylan: How do you feel about WIlyer Abreu being top 12 in fWAR? He cooled off yes, but consistently playing solid right field with a good bat.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, he’s played really well. I’d like to see him used a little more against lefties, it’s not like his splits in minors were that unusual

Steve: Just speaking it into existence. Pablo Lopez, Correa, Jax, for Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcantara, and Owen Caissie. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Twins, though maybe they shouldn’t

Whaaa: The lusty month of May?  Is that a thing?  Have I been missing out?

Dan Szymborski:

30fWAR: So, in slightly under 2000PA (it’s like 1997 I think), since the start of 2022, Judge has now surpassed 30fWAR. What I think is so impressive is he’s amassing tons of WAR at a time when WAR is fairly well understood but he also has such eye-popping “traditional” stats (.313/.439/.680 with 167 hr, 60 per 162) that he’s sort of right in a sweetspot to impress us stat people and Talk Radio Call-In (aside from October).

TC: How would you order these 2b-eligible players in a OBP keeper league:  Gabriel Arias, Luis Rengifo, Colt Keith, Edouard Julien, Miguel Vargas

Dan Szymborski: swap keith and arias. and then put julien ahead of arias?

Insert Witty Name Here: Doughy huh? What kind of bread would you end up as? Sourdough? Bagels? Pumpernickel?

Dan Szymborski: deep-fried

Mike: Do you think Andrelton Simmons is a top 5 fielding Shortstop all time

Dan Szymborski: I think the case can be made.

It’s May: Is there ANY reason to be worried about Juan Soto?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, you’d like to see a hotter start, but it’s not WORRY territory yet

Dan Szymborski: And, of course, since he’s a Met, there’s always a background worry

Carlos Mendoza: The Mets starters have been great but they also don’t pitch deep into games. Is this just what happens when you avoid the time through the order penalty? Fortunately the bullpen has been great too.

Dan Szymborski: I think this is pretty much by design when you look at the names in the rotation

Dan Szymborski: I think as time goes on, we’ll see less of a line between starters and relievers

Symbo Slice: Should the Orioles trade away some pieces and re-tool for next year like the Mets did? It’s not working in Baltimore, and I don’t see how free agent signings this off-season fix this team. What say you sir?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if I’m there yet, but I think I’d get there quicker than most. As I said in my piece a few days ago, I just don’t see where someone swoops in and saves the day

Guards! Guards!: I think this came up in Jay’s chat – someone asked a question about Luke Easter, whose career partially predated MLB records. Is it possible to use ZiPs in reverse to project their peak/early career from the decline phase and see what could have been with players like that?

Dan Szymborski: I actually have a ZiPS Time Warp piece that was never completed on Luke Easter

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: This was right as Negro League data was being introduced and it felt a bit tone depth to have an article translating the numbers

Dan Szymborski: death

Dan Szymborski: deaf

Dan Szymborski: I’m becoming slightly more functionally illiterate by the day, it seems!

Guest: Lucas Giolito throws 140 innings and has 2 or more WAR. True or false

Dan Szymborski: I could be smartassy, btu I’ll just say false for this year

Wireless Joe Jackson: Did you say doughy or doughty?   I feel like you want that “t”.

Dan Szymborski: doughy

Dan Szymborski: A doughty person wouldn’t have a unfinished paint line in his hallway from a paint job he didn’t finish 18 years ago

Sharp: Let’s give it up for Braves savior Eli White.

dylan: is it too early to predict him ending top 30 in mvp votes (wilyer)

Dan Szymborski: no

MF Luder: Is this really who Kameron Misner is?

Dan Szymborski: This good? probably not

Dan Szymborski: But there was stuff to like in his minor league performances

v2micca: As a fan, I get really frustrated when a team elects to option clearly superior talent back to the minors simply because the other player is out of options.  I have to ask, has hanging on to the clearly lesser player on the major league squad ever really work out better for the team?  Because to me, each time if feels like delaying the inevitable and the player is DFAed within a month or two.

Dan Szymborski: it postpones having to make a decision, something I can totally sympathize with

Cromulent: Last week somebody asked if signing older players to short-term, low-dollar contracts was a possible market inefficiency teams could pursue. I’m thinking these older players might not want to play along with that – Anthony Rizzo was explicit about it (not just about the $ for himself but the precedent it could set) and we can assume some team(s) must have offered David Robertson a one-year deal. If players were willing, teams would already have exploited this market inefficiency, no?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s probably the case

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if it’s so much in Robertson’s cae

Dan Szymborski: but it’s hard on a level to tell a dude “Hey, do you want to come work for us? The same job you’ve been doing, but with a 90% paycut. Also, you might lose your job two months in the season after you’ve moved to this new city”

Dan Szymborski: You need someone either specially motivated to keep playing — and those players exist — or someone who sees a realistic upside in terms of the future

Dan Szymborski: Just speaking for me personally, if I had $200 million, there’s almost no task that involves me doing something for half a year that you could get me to do for you for $2 million.

Dan: Putting aside the Aaron Judgeness of it all, his BABIP is .506–clearly unsustainable, and well ahead of his .350 lifetime average.  Let’s say he ends up with a realistic, career year BABIP-wise… .378– (same BABIP as Ted Williams when he hit .406).  What’s a realistic batting average?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually has his final year-end result at .388 with a .328 BA, so call it .320 or so

Gorman: How is Gorman struggling so bad and striking out despite massive improvements to O-Zone Swing % and Zone Contact %?

Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t go nuts yet, it’s liek 50 PA

Oddball Herrera: Who to you has been the worst offender on the “a breakout is perpetually imminent” team?  I’ve got Jo Adell and Jordan Walker on there, and I have a feeling Dylan Crews will eventually be team captain

Dan Szymborski: For a long time it was Nomar Mazara. I was constantly tricked into thinking the power was coming

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re too soon for Crews!

MF Luder: I don’t think 2023 Edouard Julien was a fluke. Am I in denial?

Dan Szymborski: I still think he’ll be fine, probably needs a new team

Alfresco: In a Scoresheet league (OBP and defense are taken into account) would you trade Bryan Reynolds for Aaron Nola?  I desperately need SP.  
Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: if you’re desperate, I’d do that

Luca: Streaming Taijuan Walker today at home against the Nats?

Dan Szymborski: I would not

Resolution: What on earth are the Pirates doing with Henry Davis? Shouldn’t he just be up playing for them?

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea WTF the Pirates are doing half the time with their roster

Dan Szymborski: I’m still confused about the Cruz/IKF shuffle

A’s: Jacob Wilson’s peak is a top ____ SS in the MLB

Dan Szymborski: notch

Dan, HELP!: Justin Martinez owner here.  Who do I pick up as a handcuff?  Shelby Miller? Ginkel? Thompson?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be most comfortable with Ginkel

Dan Szymborski: It is kinda amusing that in the end, Shelby Miller may outlast both Heyward and Walden (and he’s already outlasted Walden)

Ed: Do you think the ZiPs ROS is too negative on Ben Rice defense?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Aaron Judge: Can he actually hit .400? I mean this is insane right? We have never seen a power hitter hit for this type of average before

Dan Szymborski: I don’t imagine that’s a realistic possibility

Homer: If Baltimore does end up retooling, seems like they’d have to try to trade OF and IF for SP, right?  Any chance they match up with the Braves at all?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Braves really sync up with their needs

Royals gonna Royal: Cameron comes up, looks good, gets sent down.  Why didn’t they just dfa Stratton?  Dude sucks

Dan Szymborski: I think you liked that start WAY better than I did

You know you’re in too deep for the O’s when…: You start tracking Trevor Rogers rehab progress. Please give me something more solid to hope for with this team!

MF Luder: In a vacuum, who’s the better hitter: Edouard Julien or Spencer Horowitz?

Dan Szymborski: Prob Horwitz

Sodo Mojo: The Mariner’s are playing well but the IL list is getting to be longer and longer.  Given the current WC environment and their logical adds in the market they can make to address their Injury issues.

Dan Szymborski: I think right now, it’s hard, there just aren’t many teams that are out of the race and know they are

Dan Szymborski: and the ones that are have mostly already traded off most of their assets

jan Jzymborski: Whats your favorite era related stat? ERA+? xERA?

Dan Szymborski: ERA+. Not because it’s the best, but because it’s easy to communicate what it is

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes, the perfect stat from an analyst standpoint isn’t the perfect stat for interpretability when you’re communicating with others

xSLG: Judge is overperforming his xBA (a terrible awful .354) but UNDERperforming is xSLG

Dan the NYM GM: By May 18, New York Mets must either bring up Ronnie Mauricio or use Mauricio last MiLB option. Assuming no worse than meh re hab, what would you ( and ZIPS) do?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably use him in minors as long as you can keep giving Luisangel playing time

Oddball Herrera: Am I stuck in the past with the degree of shenanigans I am calling on Trent Grisham’s sudden competency?  Statcast loves him, but I just can’t see how you go from three straight years below the mendoza line to this

Dan Szymborski: Projection systems never really gave up on him

Vince: Is Marcus Semien done? Can’t just say “April” any more… Any reason for hope with him?

Dan Szymborski: not done, but he *is* a 34-year-old middle infielder and there’s a brutal curve there

Kevin: Probably the last thing anyone’s thinking about re: Judge, but do you have any idea why his defensive metrics were so out of step with his career numbers last year? I was convinced at the time there was some sort of systematic error playing next to Soto so much

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have them in front of me, but IIRC, he lost like two or three feet of jump from 2022 to 2024

MF Luder: Fill in the blank: Luisangel Acuña will be a top __ hitting 2B by year’s end

Dan Szymborski: __hat__ hitting 2B by year’s end after the Mets start a riot at the Lincoln Center during Act 1 of La Traviata

Triston Casas: Am I just not as good as initially advertised?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I was skeptical coming into the season

Oaktown Blues: JJ Bleday already at an incredible -8 DRS for the season (-5 OAA). Matches the eye test; he’s been comically bad in CF. If you’re the A’s, do you just grin and bear it and hope his offense bounces back to 2024 levels? Do you accelerate Denzel Clarke’s timeline?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I could justify playing him in center hitting the way he is

Guest: Henry Davis seems like a AAAA player to me and may be best suited for Japan.

Dan Szymborski: true AAAA guys are pretty rare

Getting Jiggy Wit It: Even with all the walks, Cameron still looks more promising than Stratton

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I woudln’t call that a great start

Lord Thunder: If you were the Pirates GM, would you call up Bubba Chandler now?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. audentes Fortuna iuvat

Guest: Hey! I’m looking at the “Dollars” statistic for how much they would make based on their WAR. A little interested to get a bit more detail on what that statistic actually is and how it’s calculated

Dan Szymborski: It’s basically just a linear estimation. I don’t know what FG is using off the top of my head

PCA: At what point do I hit leadoff?

Dan Szymborski: When Counsell writes your name on the lineup card as such, silly!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not personally sure I’d use PCA at leadoff

Troll: I would love to see someone troll Yankee stadium by going to every home game, and chanting “overrated” non-stop during every Judge plate appearance.  And then post video of the ensuing rage

Dan Szymborski: You’re going to get someone killed!

Dan Szymborski: It’s fortunate I wasn’t a BBWAA member until 2016 as I probably wouldn’t be able to go to NY ever again. I have no intention or prioritizing slam-dunk near-unanimous candidates as long as there plaeyrs with questions as to 5% and 75%

The Dude: Heliot Ramos is a cheat code in MLBtheshow.  My goodness does he rake.

Dan Szymborski: For me it’s Chandler Simpson. I can basically bloop EVERYTHING into shallow right field for a hit and then steal second and third with him

The Dude: Re: Semien.  I still bet on Semien to be a top 5 fantasy 2b by year end.  He always starts slow.

Dan Szymborski: This ain’t just slow. This is me-the-time-I-had-plantar-fascitis slow

The Oriole Bird: How does ZiPS feel about the next crop of Orioles prospects, like Basallo and Mayo and Beavers?

Dan Szymborski: Very good on the top two, more ambivalent about Beavers

Adam: How many teams would have to finish with the exact same record two years in a row for you to think you’re living in the Matrix?  What about three years in a row?

Dan Szymborski: I’m already unconvinced that we don’t

Question Man: Is MLB Properties holding petabytes of data from tracking inputs that could be useful for research purposes?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Matt Shaw: Do I just struggle with MLB velo until I drop the leg kick?

Dan Szymborski: Mechanics are a bit outta my wheelhouse!

NoahMurdock: Why would the A’s continue to roster a rule 5 pick with a 14.60 ERA? Noah Murdock comes in and instantly puts games out of reach. He gives up a ridiculous amount of runs nearly every time he is in.

Dan Szymborski: I admit to not knowing what the fascination is with him

Dan Szymborski: He LOOKS like someone who throws considerably harder than he does, if that makes sense

Adam: Whose swing do you most enjoy amongst current players?  All time?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not actually GOOD overall, but I love Giancarlo Stanton swings because it looks like he could shatter air

Dan Szymborski: My fave all time probably Will Clark

Guest: Speaking of Casas, the Red Sox have to get Anthony up and should they put a 1st baseman’s glove on his hand immediately?

Dan Szymborski: I’d at least get him some experience there, but I don’t think the A’s have even tried that in the minors

Dan Szymborski: The REd Sox are weirdly unprepared for Casas not working out

Oaktown Blues: Speaking of terrible A’s defense, Miguel Andujar is starting at 3B today! This is not a drill!

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the A’s defense looks a bit like one of those over-ambitious Alderson/Beane teams

Dan Szymborski: where they did stuff like stick Pat Lennon in center

A-ARON: You get enough questions about me yet?

Holy Hand Grenade: To be fair, nobody called Cameron’s start great.  Commenter said “looked good”

Dan Szymborski: OK sorry

Lyle: No, the people chanting “Crowd Surf!” at Dave Blunts concerts are going to get people killed.

Natitude Adjuster: If you were running the Nats, would you be trying pretty hard to lock up Wood and Crews and then build around?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Opifijikl: I loved the Orioles piece a few days ago, Dan. I couldn’t figure out what ROS meant on the projections though.

Would you have traded Basallo+ for Crochet? What would your out-of-the-box solution to their pitching be?

Dan Szymborski: rest of season

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if I WOULD have, but I’d have considered it more than most people

Dan Szymborski: I think you HAVE to consider this if you’re truly in win now mode

JPN: Is it rational to use an ability that is not nearly shown in the data as being strong in chances as a judgment factor during the match?

Dan Szymborski: wait, waht?

Oddball Herrera: If you believe it’s generally possible to create a computer that could simulate the universe, then the odds are you’re in a simulation, because simulations would outnumber realities by a considerable margin

Dan Szymborski: Yup, that’s exactly my take

Dan Szymborski: and not just if it’s generally possible, but if it is EVER possible, in the countless years until the age of planets is over

Speaking of Video Games…: In MLBtheshow it is also strangely easy to barrel with JJ Bleday.  Like almost every time I make contact…..

Dan Szymborski: I shoudl check my MLB the show stats after the chat (I’ll answer this in twitter)

Opifijikl: When testing/working on ZiPS variables, have you found any that seem to conflict with each other?

Dan Szymborski: Not REALLY, though I do find that something new isn’t quite as useful as hoped becuase you were capturing it more indirectly elsewhere

Dan Szymborski: like so far, swing speed data hasn’t really change things much as ZiPS was already capturing the results of swing speed

Jason: Where do you get the ideas for your AI posters which you post on X/Twitter and are you getting help for your issues?  Just kidding the posters are wild…

Dan Szymborski: I’d oddly wired, both nature and nurture

Daniel –: Follow up: I made a little program in R that compares a players preseason projected WAR / PA rate * their actual PA and sees the difference between the war they have in their career and the war they’d have if they played to their projections every year — and Judge has the largest difference (close to 20 war more than the projections throughout his career). Do you think the projections have been weirdly anti judge, especially over the past ~4 years?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a bit of selection bias becuase the best players in the league are generally going to be the ones that beat expectations

Dan Szymborski: if someone hits .350, you’re SUPPOSED to miss really low

Rajen: Hi Dan, I was wondering if you had some insight into why full-season defensive value across MLB sums to a large negative total (last year around -590 runs). Total offense sums to 17 runs (functionally zero), so I’m wondering why the total defensive value isn’t that after. Does that also mean we should think of a player with -2ish DEF (600/30 teams/10 starters per team) as an “average” defensive player?

Dan Szymborski: It seems to be a relic of the positional adjustmejnt values, which add up to -1.9 or something if you assume equal PA on everyone

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the result is in there because it’s an offensive adjustment to a defensive position and positions with steeper defensive adjustments tend to hit more and thus, get more PAs

Dan Szymborski: But when it comes down to it, I’m a guy who is less concerned what numbers are, than with what numbers *mean*, so it doens’t obther me too mcuh

Dan Szymborski: And on that poorly typed note, I’m going to head out for another week

Dan Szymborski: And sorry archibaldyeats for me being me.