Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/21

Dan Szymborski: THE APPOINTED TIME FOR CHATS HAS ARRIVE

Jim Leyland Palmer: Who does ZiPS have as the most cromulent current player in the MLB?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno. Starlin Castro?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not good

Dan Szymborski: Well, not REALLY good

Dan Szymborski: but he’s acceptable

Big_Klu: Help! I have a roto crush on Adolis… Is there any reason for pause?

Dan Szymborski: Not exactly the most scientific hitter. But ride the fun!

James: Why is Yordan not drawing any walks? He doesn’t seem to be chasing more, strikeout rate isn’t up at all.

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to look it up, but from what I’ve seen, he’s being very aggressive on three ball counts

Tyler: Is there a team/teams that shift really well compared to others?

Dan Szymborski: For this year at least, it’s been Red Sox and Cubs

Dan Szymborski: Season Tm No Shift Shifts Difference   2021 BOS .331 .245 -.086   2021 CHC .304 .248 -.056   2021 KCR .311 .265 -.045   2021 TEX .306 .270 -.036   2021 LAA .305 .272 -.033   2021 TBR .312 .287 -.026   2021 COL .294 .271 -.023   2021 DET .315 .294 -.020   2021 CLE .266 .247 -.019   2021 ARI .302 .289 -.014   2021 PIT .272 .259 -.013   2021 SEA .277 .264 -.013   2021 SDP .285 .272 -.013   2021 CHW .301 .292 -.009   2021 BAL .282 .274 -.009   2021 OAK .292 .285 -.008   2021 MIL .253 .246 -.007   2021 PHI .295 .289 -.006   2021 HOU .271 .274 .003   2021 MIA .290 .295 .005   2021 ATL .310 .315 .006   2021 SFG .220 .238 .017   2021 NYM .275 .300 .025   2021 NYY .255 .281 .026   2021 LAD .245 .279 .034   2021 CIN .277 .320 .043   2021 MIN .231 .292 .061   2021 TOR .268 .337 .069   2021 WSN .219 .290 .070   2021 STL .198 .293 .095

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: That’s pitching shift splits for 2021

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Has anyone done a study on changeup pitchers underperforming in cold weather? It’s a feel pitch, right? More so than most, I’d almost expect changeup centric arms to start slower if they play further north.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen this specifically

Dan Szymborski: Though if you’re interested in something, find the answer! That’s the basics of what sabermetrics is

Tyler: Was Randy Arozarena a 1 year wonder or is he going to turn it around?

Dan Szymborski: The shape has been different, but I’d note his wRC+ of 116 is right where projection systems thought it would be (The Bat 115, ZiPS 117, ATC 122, Steamer 120)

Dan Szymborski: or near

BringBackDeSpanielHair: MLB.com has an article extolling the virtues of the runner on second. Everyone should take 30 seconds to go flame them in the comments section!

Dan Szymborski: Hey, don’t be intentionally jerky. It’s just work for an intern to moderate

Dan Szymborski: Now, general snarkiness is fine

Pat: No questions here Dan, just wanted to let you know you’re my favorite writer and I legitimately get happy when I see something new from you 🙂

Dan Szymborski: I PAID PAT

BringBackDeSpanielHair: “The chat will begin soon”… so ominous!

Dan Szymborski: Like all baseball writers, I desire to be feared as much as loved.

Tyler: Has there ever been a player that has consistently outperformed or underperformed your projections?

Dan Szymborski: Kevin Gryboski used to annoy me.

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, issues of systemic bias are mostly weeded out at this point.

Dan Szymborski: Which is too bad – if very specific players were outperforming or underperforming, it would provide useful data.

Puster Bosey: What’s the chance Jose Abreu gets into the HoF? Would prolly need voters to fully respect what he did in Cuba, or for him to pull a Nelson Cruz

Dan Szymborski: I think extremely low.

Ian: How do we know this is you and not the neural network taking your place?

Dan Szymborski: If it was text prediction, I would be funnier.

Tyler: How would you rank the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays in the stacked AL East?

Dan Szymborski: Swap the last two.

Dan Szymborski: I’m skeptical about Boston’s pitching keeping THIS up

Hmm: Meadows is killing me.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go crazy yet given the  BABIP

Guest: What are your thoughts on Andrew Vaughn so far?

Dan Szymborski: Solid discipline, better power than I expected from minor leagues, still a bit raw overall – he has one of the largest spreads between in and out-of-zone contact rate in the majors

Dan Szymborski: Thankfully, he’s not being sat randomly like he was the first couple of weeks

Sammy So-so: What do you make of Gleyber Torres’ power outage over the past 75 games? The ball used to really jump off his bat and now not so much.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say. It’ snot a mirage, his power numbers have been disappearing off the bat for real

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Now, the root cause is a lot trickier.

Dan Szymborski: His swing LOOKS slower and the fastball data looks a lot like a player a decade older in decline. But I don’t know if that’s the stats that I’m aware of leading to that view

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t have much to offer mechanically; it’s not my area of expertise

Joe: If I were to worry about Adley Rutschman and his relatively slow minor league start (even going back to 2019) how much worry should I worry?

Dan Szymborski: He has like no minor league experience

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry

Dan Szymborski: The lost year stunk

Pistol Pete: Will Nick Madrigal ever be more than a league average 2B?

Dan Szymborski: I still think so

Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t think he has superstar potential or anything; he’s always going to have meh power

Babip: I saw you mentioned a Babip < .230 isn’t predicitive of a good average to come. Why is that? Article please.

Dan Szymborski: Did I word it like that?

Dan Szymborski: Low BABIP isn’t predictive of future low BABIP at that low

Dan Szymborski: Because ain’t nobody really a worse BABIP hitter than an average pitcher

Billy Beane: Dan, I bought a keyboard and a custom keyboard set based on your recommendations and I don’t know whether to blame or thank you so I blank you.

Dan Szymborski: Keyboard tinkering is kind of addictive. But do you enjoy the keyboard?

Marko from Tropoja: I read Jay’s Scherzer article which commented on the uptick in his three-year ZiPS projections based on his 2021 performance to date. Can you provide any similar commentary on Kershaw? Other than OD and the weird Cubs inning, he’s been stellar. Minimizing homers/low FIP and, most importantly, no injuries. Thanks as always.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t checked up on Kershaw’s projections, but I might next week

selling jeans: Dan– lowest BA ever, record strikeouts, highest ever HBP, longest games, including marathon 10th innings, defeating purpose of 2nd base rule, dwindling national interest. Are people in analytics community looking inward and wondering, for all their cutting edge skills, just how badly they have hurt the product and how these trends could be reversed?

Dan Szymborski: We don’t make the rules. Our job is to analyze performance within the rules.

Dan Szymborski: if a game is “solved” then change the game.

Sam: When Eloy comes back, what do you do with vaughn, yermín. Does Vaugh possibly have a future in RF?

Dan Szymborski: This might be blasphemy, but I think it’s too soon to be making plans around Yermin. Worry about what happens if he’s still hitting well in August.

Guest: Is it possible the Rangers Trade Gallo this year and would he bring back enough value to be worth trading?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s possible.

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think he has a ton of value

misworded: last week I misworded my taxi squad question. Do you think the taxi squad benefits the development of a young, promising player (AKA Michael Chavis).  Thanks

Dan Szymborski: I think overall it’s neutral

Adam: Gavin Lux going to be okay?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t panic, but I’d be concerned.

Not Sandy Alderson: Since chili was invented in Texas, and “chili con carne” is a meat chili, would you agree that it’s only logical that a standard chili is in fact a meatless chili?

Dan Szymborski: What is chili long predates the use of con carne

Snid: Yelich,Yelich,Yelich…   They have been so fleeting in info. What is the problem with his back?   I know it hurts!  thx

Dan Szymborski: That’s all they’ve shared!

Chase: Grandal currently has a 122 wRC+ while hitting .130, do you remember a stranger shape of production?

Dan Szymborski: No, I do not.

CeddyBReady: Hi, Dan. Can you inform Tyler that the O’s are super rad for me?  Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the reference, but it gets a post for confusing me

Adam: Which year in baseball history had a run scoring environment that most matches your preferred aesthetic?

Dan Szymborski: Probably mid-to-late 80s with the occasional 1987, but I think we tend to be shaped by the times we initially fell in love with baseball

Dan Szymborski: I’d be happy with 1994-1996ish

Dan Szymborski: The home run rates were lower, contrary to perception

Dan Szymborski: strikeouts were lower, and BAs were around .270

Padres fan: Do you think robot umps will help the hitters? I’ve seen way too many hitters called out on pitches 4  or more inches outside. With the pitchers using grip stuff, their pitches are moving so much and fast the umps can’t seem to follow them

Dan Szymborski: I think it will help some and hurt others

Babip Roberts: Whatever happened to Rob Neyer?

Dan Szymborski: He’s still around, but I think he’s lost the taste for writing about baseball as a daily thing.

Dan Szymborski: But we’re acquaintances, so I can’t claim any particular insight

Jason: Seth Brown is not only clearly over-performing his ZIPS projection but under-performing his Statcast xNumbers. At what point can we agree he just much better than the ~80 wRC+ that ZIPS thinks he is?

Dan Szymborski: It dpeneds on degree

GraphsFan: Dan, are you tuning in for Mariners: The Next Generation tonight?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I try to make sure and watch debuts

Dan Szymborski: I forgot about some pitcher’s debut last year (I forget who it was) and was pissed off about it

OddBall Herrera: Naw, the root cause for Gleyber’s power outage is easy, just use my default root cause for everything: it’s clearly a false flag operation

Garrick: White Sox lose Robert and Eloy and somehow start playing….better? How?

Dan Szymborski: Drinking and driving is the newest market inefficiency?

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry)

Billy Beane: I do. Honestly, I could’ve saved myself money by just getting the switches and playing with them incessantly. Jade greens are the most satisfying toy I’ve ever had.

Andrew Young: I’m batting .400/.600/1.600 in the tiniest of sample sizes with 4 HR, 2 BB, 5 K, and 3 HBP with a .559 xwOBA and max EV of 115.9 mph. Does this change my projections much?

Dan Szymborski: Every bit of new information changes an outlook, blessed be Bayes

Dan Szymborski: He’s gotten a bump at least check from all the systems

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Is Cedric Mullins the best center fielder in the AL East?

Dan Szymborski: Well, there’s this springy guy

HBP: Hi Dan – Does ZIPS have insight into what players have seen the largest change in ROS performance expectations, as compared to pre-season expectations?  Interested primarily in skillset changes, as opposed to volume-oriented metrics.

Dan Szymborski: It does, but the in-season model here is a simpler one because of the need for it to be run daily

Guest: is Trammell still a 4th OF-type, or did he show more than that?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anything’s really changed

Guest: Are people in analytics community looking inward and wondering, for all their cutting edge skills, just how badly they have hurt the Cincinnati chili industry and how these trends could be reversed?

Dan Szymborski: HASN’T BEEN HURT ENOUGH!

Duchess: Dan take a peek at Boehner’s swing rate with 81 game rolling average. Equally odd that he was doing so well and then just stopped swinging

Dan Szymborski: John Boehner?

Adam: Which would you rather a new MLB stadium contain beyond the right field fence: an aquarium where you could see the fish through the wall, or a rollercoaster?

Dan Szymborski: Aquarium

GraphsFan: Dan, from a technology standpoint, I think you mentioned that you run ZiPS in an utterly massive Excel workbook. Do you run it locally and push your poor computer hardware to the brink? Do you host it on a Fangraphs server? Do you use the public cloud providers?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, my poor computers get good workouts

Dan Szymborski: there are a lot of addins as well and a ton of visual basic is used

Me Growley: A young Davy Jones sang of how “Disappointment haunted all my dreams”. Those words echo through my alcohol-depleted grey cells as I contemplate the injury ravaged future of Christian Yelich. As a Brewers fan, how much will the left-fielder’s injuries disappoint me in the next five years? Please answer on a scale from Eddie Gaedel to Dan Vogelbach.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be valuable, but I also think that it kinda shaves off his top end

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think we get 2018-2019 Yelich much, if at all

M’s: The MLB’s blackout policy is crap. I live 900 miles from Seattle and can’t watch the games.

Dan Szymborski: Montana?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it kinda sucks

Dan Szymborski: If you’re going to have a blackout policy, it should have limits based on travel time.

Dan Szymborski: I’d say that no blackout should be extended to zip codes with an average commute to the stadium of two hours or more

Dan Szymborski: (or no blackouts period, which is what I prefer. but if you have to have blackouts, it would be a logical limitation)

asnbrv: Does ZiPS in anyway take into account how good of a track record a team has when it comes to developing certain players? (say being slightly optimistic on CLE’s SPs for example)

Dan Szymborski: No. I haven’t found that predictive.

Jacques Pederson: Which coworker would you trust to cook a meal for you and a date?

Dan Szymborski: Can I still count Kiley? I don’t know how well he cooks, but the scouting types always know the good places to eat, so they have judgment there. And I recall him having good offerings

BringBackDeSpanielHair: So this IS the chili chat! I always figured you for a chili eunich

Dan Szymborski: Is that a term?

Jacques Pederson: Dan, do you have any plans to streamline zips or move it to a platform that doesn’t make me cringe?

Dan Szymborski: No

Guest: Do you ever read the comments sections for your colleagues’ articles here? Your comment about changing the game if you don’t like it made me think about Jay’s recent article re: the man on 2nd in extra innings. The discussion in the comments was one of the better mixes I’ve seen in a while, divided between purists, people open to change, and people open to change who loathe this particular change…

Dan Szymborski: Sometime do, sometimes don’t.

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ tend to participate

Dan Szymborski: Because I have a tendency to get into flame wars and I don’t want to create one in a colleague’s article

CeddyBReady: F Springer, I’m da truth

Jason N: Chili is a weekly part of this chat.  Is chili also a weekly part of your diet?

Dan Szymborski: Actually no

Dan Szymborski: I only really make chili a couple times a year

Guest: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: I have a cheesesteak that’s supposed to arrive in 20 minutes

I’m so ashamed: It was Mickey Dolenz, not Davey Jones! Oh Lord, I actually know that …

Dan Szymborski: Trying out this guy tomorrow

Dan Szymborski:

Damn Yankees: Which MLB player would you want to prefer a fine meal for you?

Dan Szymborski: I bet Bartolo knows something about food

Jason N: Are you/Zips in on David Weathers?  I was surprised to see his prospect write-up has his upside as mid-rotation starter, probable bullpen long man.  He’s the youngest player in the majors and all he does is get Dodgers out.

Dan Szymborski: I think you mean Ryan!

Dan Szymborski: (Don’t feel bad, I still call Cody Bellinger Clay all the time and think both Romines are occasionally Kevin)

Dan Szymborski: Is he the youngest?

Dan Szymborski: I should note that ZiPS projected him at 1.1 WAR in 67 projected innings as a starter

Dan Szymborski: coming into the season

Dan Szymborski: That’s a player a projection system likes!

Dan Szymborski: I’d like him even better if he developed the change more

LFC Mike: You are slight favorite  in the betting pools with your pending pistol duel with Ben over his “chili with beans is better” comment he made on his chat..

Appa Yip Yip: At this point is that fact that ZiPS runs in a bloated Frankenstein’s monster of a spreadsheet a perverse point of pride?

Dan Szymborski: Think of it as a security feature

Dan Szymborski: It’s such an interconnected jumble of different things that anyone who swiped it would need years to understand all the inner workings

Gallen of Milk: Hi Dan, do you now, or did you ever collect baseball cards?

Dan Szymborski: Did as a kid

Dan Szymborski: From the mid 80s to mid 90s

Dan Szymborski: Still have ’em all

Brandon: Give me a happy fact about the Tigers. I need it

Dan Szymborski: FACT: No Colorado Rockies employees make any decisions for the Detroit Tigers.

Cynthia: Does ZIPS think prospects are more ready to perform immediately in the majors when called up compared to the past? Do you personally think that’s the case?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s any change here

Dan Szymborski: If there is, it’s coincidental – teams use tools like ZiPS more than 15 years ago, so there will be more “matching” of when a team believes a player is ready and when ZiPS does than before

Adam: Which retired player older than 50 would put up the most WAR if they suddenly found themselves on a roster in 2021?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not convinced that Mariano Rivera wouldn’t be a good closer right now.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to shuffle off this digital coil for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: For your attendance, consider yourself as getting a Grape Job! sticker from my heart.