Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/15/25

Dan Szymborski: Ah, we meet again, Fangraphiers!

M: Better stash? Cowser or Meadows?

Dan Szymborski: Cowser, I think. You’re not rewarded for the best stuff Parker Meadows does!

.330/50: I looked it up on stat muse, and, weirdly, there are seven seasons where a player hit 50+ hr with a .349+ BA. And there are seven where a player hit 50+ with a .329+ BA. Barry in 01 was at .328 and one of Foxx’s two biggest years was .349. So… I know Zips doesn’t think AJ can keep THIS up, but given he’s been hitting like .370 for more than a year now, where would you rank the season all time if he “slumps” to finish the year at like a .335/.440/.712 with 50+ (again, measurably worse than he has been over the past year)? To me it would basically just be Barry and his special sauce since expansion ahead of it.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t give an exact ranking off-hand, but it’s an absolutely monster season, and I think it would cement his status as a Sandy Koufax-esque Hall of Famer if something bad happened.

Dan Szymborski: I would personally argue he’s already at that level, but I strongly suspect I’m much more willing to vote for a dizzying-peak/shortish career guy than most writers are

AL Only: Keeper league. Got offered Pasquatino ($33) and Barger (NA) for Mize ($8). I need hitting. Have Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Pepiot, Bassit, Littell. Do I have enough pitching to cover and would you do deal?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, is this a $260 league? That’s certainly a dollar figure for Pasquantino

Dan Szymborski: With Logan Gilbert still in rehab, I’m not sure you have enough pitching.

Dan Szymborski: Certainly not enough for a trade that needs stuff to work out well for you to get what you want in return

Pete: Hi Dan – who do you like better for the rest of the season – Cade Horton or Logan Henderson?

Dan Szymborski: Henderson I think.

Broken Bat: Zips has Roman Anthony with 336 at bats. Does this projection seem right, or if he is called up soon, conservative? Does the 336 indicate Zips saw a maybe late June call up date?

Dan Szymborski: Remember, ZiPS is basically agnostic about where a player gets his playing time!

Broken Bat: Who are the top 5 SP currently in MILB that Zips like the most for next 2-3 years per forecast?

Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming you’re not going to let me get away with MLB pitchers on rehab?

Dan Szymborski: If we’re just short term, Zebby Matthews, Quinn Mathews, and Bubba Chandler

Matt: Hey Dan, what does the Cub’s starting rotation look like on August 1?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a whole lotta stuff that can happen!

Rube: Can you give an example of how you view baseball through a Bayesian lens?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, I’m not quite sure how to verbalize such a thing!

Dan Szymborski: I guess on some level, when I see an event, there’s a part of me that asks “how does this make me feel like the situation changed?”

bringbackpologrounds: What should a Masyn Winn extension look like, and do you think STL gets it done?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t honestly think they’re going to move on anything right now with the GM future still kinda in limbo

Nick: Have I missed your AI list of team mottos for 2024-2025, or did you stop generating them? Those always made me laugh

Dan Szymborski: Everyone started using text AI so it was a lot less fun.

Dan Szymborski: I was doing old school GPT-3 and training it myself on existing mottos

Dan Szymborski: but it’s less fun now and more likely to just piss people off. So I only really use it for specific things that amuse me

RH: If I recall correctly, not only does May have Ides (every month does) but it is one of 4 where it falls on the 15th.

bringbackpologrounds: Geraldo Perdomo is signed for $11 million per year from 26-29. Will this be the biggest bargain in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: The biggest bargain in baseball is almost always going to be a superstar not quite at two years of service time

Glorbus: The White Sox are 4-1 since the Sox Pope was elected. How do you account for a team gaining the Mandate of Heaven in FanGraph’s playoffs odds?

Dan Szymborski: heh

BAJ: Do you know Judge’s 99% zWAR?

Dan Szymborski: All the WAR

Lninefingers: Do you think Detroit runs away with the AL Central?

Dan Szymborski: Runs away? No, they’ll come back a bit. But they’re probably the best constructed team in the division right now

Wrights_Back: Is what the Mets are doing with their pitching staff a revolution, skill, or luck?  Eg, save $20 Mn on a front line pitcher and put the savings into a Griffin Canning and a bunch of technology?  
Related question:  is the WAR variability of a pitcher greater than a position player (basically through injury) to make the strategy behind roster construction different (I’m looking at you, Dodgers, with about a million pitchers on the DL).

Dan Szymborski: Skill and luck are intertwined! You can be the luckiest SOB on the planet, but you need skill to put yourself in a position to leverage that luck.

Kip: At this point, is it safe to say Matt Olson’s great 2023 was mostly due to the juiced baseballs?

Dan Szymborski: That’s too aggressive a conclusion

Dan Szymborski: You can also say he was a guy who already had three 30-homer seasons having his peak year

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Good after morning Dan. FINALLY started playing FF XV and uh…its sooooo baaaad. The first message that pops up before the title screen: “A game for fans and newcomers”. Yeah no. You get a car that you can’t drive off roadways (at least not 10 hours in), it’s set in like, a fever vision of Elivis’ America (WHY?) and there are useless cut scenes when you FUEL YOUR CAR….that you can’t even fully control. It’s insane to me that Square made something like FF6 (one of their masterpieces) in 1994 that’s just so much better – and even comparing it to nIER Automata which was developed along side it….

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really mind Final Fantasy XV, but it’s definitely one of my least favorite of the series.

Dan Szymborski: I like old school JRPGs, so I’m not super crazy about where the series is.

Dan Szymborski: I’m way more excited at a new Falcom RPG than a new Square one these days

Dan Szymborski: (Though I’m all for a IX remaster like VII got!)

wheelhouse: goldschmidt real? at minimum, seems like he can hang on for a while longer if a team is willing to soft-platoon him against tougher rhp

Dan Szymborski: Eh, there’s a lotta BABIP in there. Even giving him a higher one from his history, there’s a lot of helium

Mike Fichera: It appears to me that the Mets GM/PBO – Stearns version of moneyball is run prevention. He has focused on contact groundball pitchers since he arrived (juiced ball doesn’t hurt them if it happens) Mets have allowed the fewest runs in the league. He has shown a willingness to run out someone who hits .180 but plays a good centerfield (Siri at first, now Taylor)- as an RBI and a run prevented are weighted a bit more evenly in this front office. Is the trend setting or just good execution of a known addage?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s a trend but he uses what he has on hand well.

Guest: What is your routine to keep up to date on baseball happenings (scores, stats, stories, etc.)?

Dan Szymborski: Mostly chaos

Dan Szymborski: I don’t tend to do things in an orderly fashion

bk: So what’s up with the orioles?

Dan Szymborski: The pitching sucks and the hitting seems to want to suck out of solidarity

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Mostly asking because fantasy: Is Marcus Semien cooked? Seems like he might be starting the decline phase of his career, at least at the dish.

Dan Szymborski: I was already worried in the spring enough for him to be in my busts article, and 2025 certainly hasn’t changed my mind

Kapman: Who’s going to be brought up first: Marcelo Mayer or Roman Anthony? And how do you view that timeline?

Dan Szymborski: I tend to think Anthony becuase I think they can juggle their defensive alignment more easily to get playing time

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say midseason

Lord Thunder: Will the O’s finish at .500 or above this season?

Dan Szymborski: I think no. They basically have to play almost at 90+ win pace to get to .500 now.

Dan Szymborski: So it’s POSSIBLE, but it’s nto the way to bet

Rushing it: Since the Dodgers have a pretty good DH and a pretty solid catcher, where are they expecting Rushing to play? If I have Smith at C, should I be worried about PT (I also have Ohtani, but…)

Dan Szymborski: They haven’t given him much OF this season, but it’s also the logical place for him to play other than C

Dan Szymborski: 1B/DH is kinda awkward since you have Freeman and Ohtani there

Dan Szymborski: I can’t imagine they won’t give him more PAs than they squeezed out for Barnes

Dan Szymborski: and it would be crazy to curtail Will Smith playing time other than trying to keep him fresher

Dan Szymborski: and the Dodgers aern’t crazy

Ampersand: Stuck trolling the waiver wire for a second baseman in my redraft league. How would you rank Cronenworth, D Moore, Schneemann, Norby?

Dan Szymborski: I think the first two are close and the second two are close to each other, but clearly behind

Dan Szymborski: Cronenworth is a meh defensive 2B, but you don’t have to take the hit

Guest: do you mow your own lawn, or have a service do it?

Dan Szymborski: service

Dan Szymborski: They cut every two weeks and spray for weeds. I think I pay $80-something, but it’s automatically paid so I don’t pay too much attention

Dan Szymborski: I don’t need my lawn super short, just enough that the neighbors don’t complain. And I definitely don’t want to do it myself because seasonal allergies

From the Mt Washington Light rail stop: It’s time for the O’s to punt their season now, right? I half expected Hyde to lose his job last night after being swept in the double header. Don’t know what else there is to add right now, and tho i understand Kjerstad and Mayo have been pretty bad in the bigs, there really is no point in having older, lower ceiling level players play ahead of them, no?

Dan Szymborski: Not necessarily punt, but anything they do that helps 2025 better help 2026-2028

Dan Szymborski: I’ve spent a lot of time where you are!

Dan Szymborski: The Mt. Washington stop is where I’d always go to games with my grandfather when Camden opened

Dan Szymborski: since he lived nearby

Dan Szymborski: And I’ve been to Mt. Washington Tavern a billion times

Guest: same question for your topiary garden– do you maintain it or have your grounds crew take care of it

Dan Szymborski: Ha, I have a lawn and some trees

Dan Szymborski: and some bushes that DO NOT flower.

Dan Szymborski: and a little Japanese maple near the door.

Dan Szymborski: As Jim Gaffigan says, I’m “indoorsy”

Austin D.: Do you think we’ll ever see a player like “Camera Eye” Max Bishop ever again? Someone with an eye so good that their batting average and ISO can be lower than average and they’re still a net positive?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s tricky as pitchers are just better today, especially on the low end

Guest: A wizard has granted you access to the fangraphs leaderboards on April 1, 2040. You can’t download anything and have 10 minutes to run whatever reports / leaderboards you want. What are you doing with that 10 minutes?

Dan Szymborski: Taking pictures wiht my phone 🙂

Wireless Joe Jackson: It’s May 15 and all the AL wildcards are in the Central.  This is the ides you should have been ware of!

James: Is Jackson Merrill an 80 FV at some point? It’s his sophomore season and he’s already a bonafide 5 tool CF.

Dan Szymborski: He has an argument for best CF in baseball. I think that a serious best contender has to be a now 80, no?

Dan Szymborski: Unless it’s 1978 NL and the shortstops are Dave Concepcion and a bunch of guys that answered a classified ad to start a career in sports today

Dan Szymborski: It’s hyperbole

Guest: the real ides are the plots we made along the way

Sidd F: JAke McCarthy has a .980 OPS in AAA Reno.  Will Arizona recall him, or is their OF just too darn crowded.

Dan Szymborski: I think he actually is traded

Ethan: What are your thoughts on Luis Robert Jr. and which teams(if any) should pursue him?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been bad enough that he’s bordering on reclamation project more than guy you acquire to put in your contending lineup

Johnny5Alive: Re: dodgers how come they don’t get in trouble for IL manipulation. A pitcher has a bad start? 15 day IL for soreness. The Mets got in trouble for 1 guy and the dodgers do this every year

Dan Szymborski: Given how many of them end up needing significant surgery, I’m not sure it’s manipulation

Dan Szymborski: Agreeing to lose 7 mph off your fastball or have shoulder surgery is real dedication to the con!

Wireless Joe Jackson: Played Expedition 33 then?

Dan Szymborski: I have not yet

Dan Szymborski: I’m currently playing through the machine translation of the Japanese version of Kai no Kiseki (Trails Beyond the Horizon)

Dan Szymborski: Then after I build a PC, I want to finish up Final Fantasy Rebirth

Broken Bat: Orioles in BIG trouble. Let’s assume they see like no  hope by end of June. Is Adley a piece based upon reputation ( not last 6 months) that would bring them decent return in the way of SP prospects wit their own prospect catcher waiting? Would Say Festa or Zebby along with Jax and a 45 prospect make sense for both?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the O’s would trade him THAT aggressively, but in this scenario, it shoudl be on the menu

Insert Witty Name Here: When we dream, it’s mostly non-lucid. So how do we know our waking life isn’t some kind of higher level non-lucid dream of another state of being? Also, we’re never getting good Aaron Nola back are we?

Dan Szymborski: We don’t necessarily do. We do not understand existence fully.

Dan Szymborski: I wish I weren’t so aware in dreams. I ruin every good dream I have because, even since I was a kid, my dreams always have me questioning the dream at some piont

Dan Szymborski: And I have way too many realistic dreams. Like if I have a task to do the next day, I will frequently simply dream about doing that task, and nothing dramatic or unlifelike happens.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve had dreams about writing a piece I was going to write the next day and then wake up pissed because I just wrote it in the dream

Guest: Views on Manfred’s Rose/SJJ decision?

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: If you had a HOF vote, would you vote for Rose?

Dan Szymborski: And in what seems like an odd follow-up, I’d vote yes. But I don’t think I’ll have the opportunity since it appears he’ll go through the Committee gauntlet, not be on the BBWAA ballot

Dan Szymborski: (This is my 10th year in BBWAA, so I vote this year for Hall)

Dan Szymborski: Rose grosses me out on many levels, but I also believe that the sportsmanship clause, based on the history of the development of the rules, strongly pertains to on-field manifestation of character.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have any dispute with people who feel differently. I would have held my nose and voted for Schilling, too.

Dan Szymborski: As *I* personally see it, I’m an expert in baseball in many aspects, and fully qualified to serve on an expert panel to evaluate most baseball things. I am not a scholar of ethics or morality, and I would be uneasy to serve on an expert panel about these things.

Dan Szymborski: The BBWAA has local votes and there’s a Good Guy award, and I abstain from voting in that one at all, as I simply do not believe I am qualified to pass such judgments.

Dan Szymborski: And again, no dispute for you guys or anyone who feels differently. It’s a personal philosophical decision.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: I love the Orioles off season pitching plan: “Hey call up Charlie Morton and stock-up on Bengay” Okay great. Who else should we call? “What did I just say?”

Rushing: MLBTR has an article up saying the Dodgers intend to use him only has a backup catcher like a true understudy

Dan Szymborski: Really? That strikes me as a strange

another zip-locked mind: Hi Dan: thinking of Pete Rose.  Has anyone proven that sliding head-first is a more efficient way to take a base?

Dan Szymborski: Well, not first certainly

Insert Witty Name Here: Why hasn’t Hollywood done a major biopic of Washington? Considering he’s like the father of our country, we get Hamilton and Lincoln (and W.) but not him?

Dan Szymborski: Becaue nobody could do a better character piece on George Washington than Brad Neely did in two minutes of song.

SDC: Is Gage Jump as good as he’s been playing or is he just really hot out of the gate?

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly interesting, but never fall in love with an A-ball pitcher

Dan Szymborski: He SHOULD be dominating in A-ball

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Have you ever heard of the band “Idles”? They are a UK post-punk band. They go pretty hard in the paint. Check out the song: “Grounds”.

Dan Szymborski: I have not, but I’ll check it out

Dream Dan: I think I need a vacation

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Didn’t Mythbusters test sliding head-first vs feet-first?

Dan Szymborski: Did they? I haven’t seen many episodes

Jeremy: Speaking of immortalizing famous people in song…What current ballplayer should be immortalized in song, a la Joltin’ Joe DiMaggio? And who should write and perform said song?

Dan Szymborski: I’m surprised there aren’t 50 J-Pop songs about Ohtani. But maybe there are and I don’t know them

Dan Szymborski: And like a bluesy sad song about the White Sox or Rockies

Dan Szymborski: I’d like, tha tis

Dan Szymborski: that is

Dan Szymborski: My favorite underrated song is Jonathan Coulton’s Kenesaw Mountain Landis

Seth Milchick: Dan, it sounds like you may be reintegrating, with your outie and innie’s consciousnesses merging…

MilwaukeeBeerJays: https://www.discovery.com/shows/mythbusters/episodes/baseball-myths <– I’ve seen the episode, but it was a looooooong time ago. they tackle the “rising fastball”, sliding and I believe make corked bats.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head off for another week. Sorry for strict 1 PM cutoff, but I have radio to record.