Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/18/23

Dan Szymborski: ITS A CHAT!

Ben Cherington: Does Henry Davis even need Triple A? At what point does he just head to Pittsburgh.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit tricky – I don’t generally like skipping catchers too aggressively, but they can’t play both him and Endy Rodriguez.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s a little awkward to stick him in a non-catcher position in the majors

Dan Szymborski: Unless the Pirates have the guts to bench Santana

Thank you Dan,: very cool!

Dan Szymborski: DAMN YOU CAVE

Travis: Is it officially safe to say Acuna’s back

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Can we get a moment of silence for the loss of the great Bill Saluga? https://deadline.com/2023/05/bill-saluga-dies-you-can-call-me-ray-come…

McGraw45: I have been a Padres fan all my life. Convince me going to the NLCS wasn’t a cruel joke to give us hope, only to rip it away once more.

Nick Pratto: What is my long term outlook?

Dan Szymborski: I think an averageish 1B

Guest: Gonna start of wacky:

Things aren’t going great in San Diego

If things continue to go really poorly and they find themselves like 40-50 in mid-July, 15+ games out of the West and 8+ out of the wildcard (assuming two the Mets/Phillies/Cardinals/Cubs improve), what are the chances the Padres would entertain making Juan Soto available for the second straight deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they do that unless they suddenly desire to break up the team. Losing Soto makes some of the other deals nearly pointless

Dan Szymborski: They’re pot committed now

Beacon: Should the White Sox move Kopech to the bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: I would consider it if the White Sox were seriously in the divisional race

Dan Szymborski: But they’re not and their good outcomes probably need Kopech a good starter and one fewer starter to need to replace in the next couple of years

Dan Szymborski: Since the season’s increasingly looking lost, I think they shoudl work out his issues.

Who’s Fabio: Hey Dan, the eye test indicates that Vladdy has embraced physical fitness and he looks good at first.  With Chapman likely gone after the season, could/should the Jays try Vlad Jr. at third again?

Dan Szymborski: I generally think teams such try to push the defensive spectrum where possible. I’d want a fallback position though in the spring

Dan: How long until it’s more likely Bryce Elder is truly better than sum of his pitches vs this is just a blip of over-performance?

Dan Szymborski: Not really a one sentence answer! It takes a lot of time, however, for outperformance of peripheral numbers to have predictive value

Dan Szymborski: For example, Marco Gonzales advanced far enough in ZiPS that it believe his ability to outperform his FIP is about 0.3 runs

Matt: You projected what Bryan Reynolds contract extension might look like, with the Bucs getting him to sign and showing a willingness to extend some of the core, what does ZIPS have to say about a potential Mitch Keller extension?

Dan Szymborski: Dangit  you guys always give me work to do! lol

Dan Szymborski: You’ll have to wait a few, ZiPS isn’t open

Insert Witty Name Here: You’re late.  I want a refund.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually leave at precisely 1 though!

Anon21: Is Orlando Arcia a good hitter now? Did the Braves get a huge steal by signing him to that 3-year, $7.3 million extension?

Dan Szymborski: I got most of my feelings about Arcia out in the piece I wrote a few weeks ago

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vaughn-grissom-gets-a-cameo-as-orlando-arc…

Colton: Does ZiPS have biases for certain traits in prospects? I know you’ve talked about how it was so much higher on Mookie as a prospect compared to the industry, is there something in particular it keys on that you’ve noticed or just happened to work out that way?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure for certain traits other than since it’s performance-based, it likes players with good performance who scouts don’t like for some reason

LFC Mike: Greetings Dan.  What did you make of Anthony DeSclafani hurting his foot with a piano bench? Have you suffered anything like that? I understand when asked how long he may be out, DeSclafani said  “He would be Bach in no time”.  Thank You. Let the derision begin.

Dan Szymborski: I badly sprained a ligament in my wrist some years ago playing the first movement of the Beethoven Pathetique

Dan Szymborski: And then I tore it more significantly a few years later when I tripped on a cat and tried to catch myself on the bannister falling

Dan Szymborski: Injury was here

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I still will mostly only play the second and third movement and I’m still sheepish about playing anythign with a quick tremolo in the left hand.

your 3 cents: Morn. and thank you for ZIPS.

Brando Kosmische: O’Hearn is an obvious candidate. Where do the cuts off the fringes of the 40 man need to come to get Cowser and Westburg up.

Dan Szymborski: I’d certainly try to see if any teams are interested in Gillaspie

Sill Rabbit, Tricks are for ZiPS: How frequently are the 3-yr projections on here updated/re-run? Asking for my dynasty rebuild.

Dan Szymborski: Just preseason. Running the full preseason model is difficult en masse

Dick Monfort: My Rox are gonna avoid 100 losses again, Doncha think?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has it a 30% chance

Dan Szymborski: And the team does not do selloffs which would get them worse in the short-term

ribbit: What are you listening to RIGHT NOW?

Dan Szymborski: the Chailly recording of Messiaen’s Turangalila Symphonie.

Dan Szymborski: Been on a bit of a Messiaen jag this week as I was just talking last week in a mini-Twitter thread about some of the thematic similarities between the Sephiroth One-Winged Angel theme from Final Fantasy VII and this piece.

Dan Szymborski: Thread started here

Dan Szymborski:

The Big Dirk: What are your thoughts on Yoshida? Worth the investment so far?

Dan Szymborski: Happy, yes

Dan Szymborski: And good self-interest since ZiPS had him at .305/.372/.489 before the season and leading the AL in BA

Stosh: RIP SUPERSTAR BILLY GRAHAM

Guards catcher: Is it Bo time in Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski: It’s absurd that it’s not yet!

TomBruno23: What should I tell my buddy in Iowa, let’s call him Bodie, about the 2023 New York Mets?

Dan Szymborski: The Mets, good or bad, are the nation’s leading depository of sadness

a good deli meat sandwich: Is there long term concern for Trea Turner with SwStr% + K% at career highs and xwOBA + barrel rate at career lows?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far yet, though mildly worried about his slump at least

Dan: Regarding the depression of the A’s mention in your chat teaser. Either it’s still baseball so they aren’t depressing at all merely more or less fun or they are so depressing that 32% less depressing is still horrendously high for a chat. I see each of these views as valid.

Dan Szymborski: I just don’t want to overpromise

Appa Yip Yip: What’s wrong with Alejandro Kirk? The hit tool it is gone.

Dan Szymborski: I’m definitely at least somewhat concerned because even though the BABIP is too low, some of his velocity data is really off too

Sir Nerdlington: I named our new puppy after a player and that team can no longer win a game. My fault or just bad luck? I think we could change his name with only minor lasting personality issues.

Dan Szymborski: It might be funny to see if they ever win again!

Dan Szymborski: If you think there’s a hex, well, in for a penny, in for a pound

Graham Ashcraft: Do I need a 3rd pitch to be better than a back-end starter?

Dan Szymborski: Two pitch pitchers sometimes have a lot of success. In his case, I’d really like to see him develop an off-speed pitch

Dan Szymborski: He’s just not great at finishing off at-bats

Trevor May Care Attitude: Since you mentioned the depressing A’s in the chat teaser, I have to get your take. This is a team with a wRC+ of 97, which is not actually that bad. Is it possible that an MLB team employs pitchers whose collective true talent is so utterly abysmal?! They have to improve somewhat, right? Right?!

Dan Szymborski: Writing more about ’em tomorrow!

LFC Mike: How aggressive do you think  the Reds will be with more promotions? McLain just up and CES waiting in the wings. Issue with CES is the walk rate, 1 all year I believe.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve tgot a piece releated to this next weke

Guest: which of these underperforming teams do you think has the best chance of working things out: Cubs, Cards, M’s, or Guardians

Dan Szymborski: Cards

Dan Szymborski: The Contreras situation was a whole Bucket of Stupid

Dan Szymborski: but people grossly underrate teams that get off to unexpectedly poor starts

Eephus Heat: Do you think Colas is anything other than an average MLB OF? Is a 20/10 peak?

Dan Szymborski: Not really, no

Syndergaardengnomes: Vientos puts up Barry Bonds numbers at AAA, Mets hold off on promoting him.  They finally do, he hits 4 balls 100 MPH last night, including a 2 run HR to tie the game, and today he’s benched for Tommy Pham and Daniel Vogelbach.  Is this Eppler or Showalter with the horrendous decisions?

Dan Szymborski: I would GUESS Buck

Sum: Dan, apologies for the probably LMGTFY-able question. if a player is called up, sent down, etc. – is their paycheck the big league min while they are on the 26-man, and then their minor league salary if/when they’re sent back down? or does the old “contract was selected from” language mean that they’re now entirely on a new contract, even when sent back down, and they now get the big league min for perpetuity? or some other?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not on a new contract really, they’re on optional assignment. When they’re on the 40-man roster then their minimums fall under the CBA

Dan Szymborski: For players in their first-time on a 40-man roster, but playing in the minors, their minimum is $58,800

Dan Szymborski: and for players on split contracts , the minimum is $117,400

Dan Szymborski: In other words, a second MLB contract

Steve O: If Bellinger keeps this up all year, does he get 9 figures?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Buctober: Why does bryan reynolds always hit better with the stache? Does his xSWAG or SWAG+ increase in a meaningful way?

Dan Szymborski: The power of mustaches

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS suggests, for 2 last years of arb + 3 years of FA, 5/85 for Keller

Baty for Coco Crisps: Is there a way to see who has the most 400 foot outs? It feels like Acuna’s had like 5.

Dan Szymborski: There is!

Dan Szymborski: Statcast only has one 400-foot out for Acuna

Dan Szymborski: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4b552467-d19d-4f20…

Dan Szymborski: Matt Chapman leads the majors with four 400-foot outs

Dan Szymborski: Kerry Carpenter, Rodolfo Castro, and Kyle Tucker have two

Dan Szymborski: And then 49 players have a single one

Cat Latos: How do my cat frens do?

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s sleeping in his cat bed on my left desk

Dan Szymborski: I heard someone barf on the stairs, which I have to clean up after this chat

Dan Szymborski: I think that was Constantine as that was 12:30 and that’s when he starts getting restless about his upcoming dinner

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia was asleep in the spoon of the cat tree in the upstairs TV room

Dan Szymborski: and Mercutio was last seen, about 11 AM, sleeping on top of one of the pillows on the big living room couch

Dan Szymborski: That’s his favorite place now – that used to be Galileo’s favorite place because he could see both the front door and the fridge from that position

Dan Szymborski: Nobody would use that spot for a couple years after he died

Guest: I am begging you to please fix Mike Trout and make him the best non-Ohtani baseball player again 🙁

Dan Szymborski: I mean, dude’s on the wrong side of 30 now. Time is the ultimate badass

ham: Do you consider yourself a cat person?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, I like dogs too, but cats are really clean and I don’t have to get dressed and walk around the neighborhood with them at 6 AM

Dan Szymborski: And I can leave cats alone for a week with daily checkups from my mom or sister

Kyle: Does Jackson Holliday have a chance to play in the majors this year if he earns a promotion to AA and has a wRC+ of 200 again for 40 games?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

LFC Mike: Who would you rate as “Composer most likely to cause career ending injury?”

Dan Szymborski: Liszt or Alkan?

Pixley: Are we all just living in a Szymulation?

Dan Szymborski: Not a SZYMulation

Dan Szymborski: But technically speaking, if it would ever be possible to simulate the universe precisely, then it’s more likely we’re in one of the simulations than one of the “real” ones

SoSo: Dan, it’s good to see on chatting once again!!

Dan Szymborski: I was here last week and on vacation before that!

Gunther Centralperk: Generally speaking, are ZiPS ROS projections more conservative than Steamer, FGDC, THE BAT, and ATC DC? If so, why?

Dan Szymborski: Not that I’m aware of.

Dan Szymborski: But I tend to test ZiPS vs. reality, not ZiPS vs. other projection systems

Dan Szymborski: Because ZiPS vs. other projection systems doesn’t give me insight on improving the projections since I can’t dissect the why.

Brando Kosmische: And since this chat began, Westburg has hit his 12th homer.

Oaktown Blues: TIL that “Turanga Leela” is a reference to a symphony

Dan Szymborski: For those unaware, that’s the Futurama character

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the spotify link for the recording

Dan Szymborski: https://open.spotify.com/album/0rwlh7mB3ldAPPUz1kALGo?si=nIw1fHesSx-Mv…

TomBruno23: When I watch Matthew Liberatore pitch I see a physical resemblance to Chuck Finley.

Dylan Cease and Desist: Fischer has passed the Montforts as baseball’s worst owner, no?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

SoSo: Depository of Sadness…great band name

ctrapper: Hi Dan!  What’s the average WAR movement on a pitcher from one year to the next..

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know that specific offhand

BCubs: Is Michael Harris going to be fine? His statcast data seems good. What’s his ROS expectations?

Dan Szymborski: Him I’m not worried about

Guest: The ERA is still ugly but do you think Chris Sale is somewhat back?

Dan Szymborski: While I’m not optimsitic about his health, I am about his performance

Greg: When teams openly talk about not wanting to jerk prospects around by calling them up and then sending them down if they see them as “core pieces” do you think that sometimes a player in the organization who is “up and down” might get the wrong message about his role/future? I swear I’m not Kyle Stowers’s cousin.

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the organization. Some communicate better than others.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a real variance on how teams treat their prospects

E-roq: Did you know that Jake Bauers has an xWOBA of .413, a 25% barrel rate and a 50% hard-hit rate, as per Statcast, in 40 PAs. How many PAs until you think it means something if he keeps that up?

Dan Szymborski: Actually, I did not

Dan Szymborski: it’s enough that it’s interesting, though he has a long history of MEH to overcome

Guest: The games are too fast! What can we do to also them down? There are no bad ideas.

Dan Szymborski: Any time a team is up by 10 runs, Steve Trachsel automatically comes in to pitch

Guest: On Senga’s player page, is the ghost fork classified as the splitter? And if so, that’s weird, the cutter seems to be a much more valuable pitch.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, pitch info doesn’t use forkball as one of their classes in clustering

Dan Szymborski: but statcast does

Dan Szymborski: it’s just that you’ve had so few players explicitly through a forkball

Bobbo: Apparently the White Sox have started a RHP for 162 straight games. Is this a not-talked-about lowkey contributing factor in their lack of success?

Dan Szymborski: If their RHP could get guys out, I don’t think anyone would care

TomBruno23: As KLaw said in a 1/30/2020 chat in response to a question about Matt Carpenter. “He got old. Time is a motherfucker.”

Dan Szymborski: He unolded!

ChatGPT4 is, unfortunately, a Royals fan: Dan, based on your analysis, what’s the single most impactful change the Royals could make to their lineup or strategy to improve their performance this season?

Dan Szymborski: keeping Garcia in the lineup probably means they’re pretty close to optimal

Dan Szymborski: there are things I’d do that they’re not, but not to increase results THIS season

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to head out for another week

Dan Szymborski: Thank you for coming everyone and hope to se eyou all next time!