Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/2019

Dan Szymborski: Unleash the Chatken!

Egg: How impactful are hitting coaches really? Do you think there is anything to the correlation between Mets, Cubs, and Red Sox all struggling under Chili Davis, with a complete lack of power?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a tricky thing in that’s it hard to really separate out a hitting coach’s contribution. It’s more of a leadership role for the manager to figure out than anything that is data driven.

Dan Szymborski: Unless someone smarter than me has found a way to isolate hitting coaches.

Voldemort: Do you have confidence in Matt Carpenter and/or Jesus Aguilar to turn things around this year?

Dan Szymborski: Carp more.

Voldemort: Do you think Hiura locks down the 2B job or does he get sent back down at the first sign of Shaw showing life?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t necessarily think he locks up the job, but if Shaw shows some life, I expect the Brewers to be more flexible with the positions of some of these guys, a la the Tigers.

DJ Tanner: Does ZiPS update midseason for minors guys? Ex, does Yordan Alvarez’s offensive output look better with the year he is having or does Austin Riley’s lower K rate make him even more viable in the bigs?

Dan Szymborski: It won’t until we have minor league translations live. This is on my plate right now.

Laxtonto : What is better? Spinach or Aragula?

Dan Szymborski: Arugula.

Dan Szymborski: Though I will only eat both if they’re completely raw.

Roberto Beers: A Dan, A Plan, A Sad Giants Post, Sopstnaig Dasan Alpa Nada

LFC Mike: Good Monday Dan. So now that GOT is over…will the Braves have an intervention with Albies and tell him he is NOT a switch hitter? 763 lifetime AB as a lefty has produced .241/.299/.412 numbers while as a righty  286 AB .339/.369/.556. He needs to go fulltime righty or be part of a strict platoon…the Braves can’t live with those numbers from a supposed big piece of their future. I know he is young but there is no improvement here…

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly worth experimenting with giving up switch-hitting. I wouldn’t do it until a spring training.

another bad dynasty manager: Dan: nice piece on the Giants (even though I’m an O’s fan).  Assuming the Giants do the smart thing, would you care to speculate where veterans like Belt and Posey end up?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Posey goes anywhere and honestly, I doubt Belt will either.

Roberto Beers: Do pull heavy lefties provide better stealing opportunities of third base for runners on second?

Dan Szymborski: Never really looked at the issue, actually.

Dan Szymborski: Stealing third base is kind of a lost art given the success rate you need. The conventional wisdom of not making the first or third out at third actually has a lot going for it.

Laxtonto : Who is the Rangers best position prospect?

Dan Szymborski: Leody

vft: has cj cron made any adjustments? he could feast in that lineup

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s just a Decent Guy having a good run in May

Laxtonto : Rewatching Dexter… Better than the Sapranos?

Dan Szymborski: Dexter went on too long for its creative spark

Charlotte Cialis Porcupines: I tried your twitter game of naming a minor league team…produces a terrible name for a minor league team if you ask me….and the slogan for the team “Get pricked at the ballpark” has way too many negatives…

Dan Szymborski: There were a lot of great names!

Dan Szymborski: For those who missed it, it’s the hometown of your close relative you know the least, the last item you bought at a retail outlet in-person, and an animal you think would be good in a cop buddy movie if it could talk and was animated.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t share mine, but my minor league team name was the Jacksonville Milk Pandas.

bart: how much playing time do you see brendan rodgers getting?

Dan Szymborski: Scattered. He’s not a lousy player in his 30s.

Brood550: What are the White Sox doing for tomorrow’s game now that Banuelos is on the IL?  Bullpen it or are they going to call someone up?

Dan Szymborski: I think they actually do finally call up Cease. They’re doing an opener tonight I believe

Richard: Austin Barnes. Do you think this is who he is, or could there be more in the bat?

Dan Szymborski: I think he is who he is at this point – he’s not a young player. He’s finally kinda having that average season

Brood550: What should be taken from Alcantara’s start yesterday?  Turning a corner or just a blip?

Dan Szymborski: It was a good start, but the Mets also look lost right now. He looked much worse a couple of starts ago when the Cubs were just waiting him out.

TooDamnTall: I can’t think of a good question, so I’ll just say hi.

Dan Szymborski: yo

Roberto Beers:

randplaty: If two teams have the exact same wOBA, but one is balanced between ISO and OBP but the other team is almost all ISO. Does the first team score more runs than the second? Or does it not matter? Does balance between ISO and OBP matter?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t really matter

Jim Leyland Palmer: Dan, you buying into a Zach Wheeler turn around?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Jim Leyland Palmer: In fantasy terms, how would you value Cutch & Hicks?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on how risk-averse you are. Cutch is safer, but Hicks has more upside. Depends on your team.

Jerry: Is this the end of Joey Votto?  Outside of a BABIP that’s 90 points off his career mark, there aren’t a lot of redeeming qualities on his numbers or peripherals. (I hope it isn’t)

Dan Szymborski: I think the BA/OBP will get up there but I suspect the power isn’t coming back this time.

Dystopian Future: Your article on the Giants brought up the more interesting failure of the Rockies to date. Part of it is the regression monster (Freeland), but the collapse of Jon Gray has been confusing. In 2018’s first half he had that awful ERA with good peripherals, but in the second half his peripherals worsened to match the ERA. This year he’s managed to be worse (his BB% has gone way up and he’s given up even MORE hard contact). Is this all he’s ever going to be or is there a route to success for him still?

Dan Szymborski: I should note that Gray’s ERA isn’t even *bad* – he has the ERA+ of a 2/3 starter.

Dan Szymborski: He’s someone who may benefit for a different environment

black wolf: Dan: my late uncle was a big chess fan.  Before he died, he turned me on to a chess web site called agadmator.  Do you like his analysis?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’ve been mostly out of chess following for a number of years.

Dan Szymborski: And I get too on-tilt to be a good chess player

Mathews: Oscar Mercado- given Cleveland horrible outfield situation do you believe he will get enough playing time to steal 20 bags. In you opinion. What % of FAAB budget would you spend on him?

Dan Szymborski: He ought to, but I don’t know what Cleveland’s doing with the outfield.

tb.25: Just gonna leave this here…

lee: Are there particular types of players or evolutions to the game that break ZIPS in certain ways?

Dan Szymborski: Well, injured players for one

Dan Szymborski: It’d be nice if there was specific groups for which ZiPS displayed systemic issues. It would make it easier to improve

Sean: How much variance is there in player projections, e.g. the gap between the floor and ceiling? Is it pretty similar across most players or is there a lot of variance/volatility?

Dan Szymborski: Lot of variance

Dan Szymborski: Some guys have very short resumés

My name is Judge…: how long will the following statement remain true?
The only teams to never go to the playoffs in back to back seasons are the Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins.

Will be it because the White Sox break the streak?  the marlins break the streak?  or expansion?

Dan Szymborski: White Sox

976: Hey Dan, it’s me, your son from Jacksonville.

Dan Szymborski: DON’T HAVE A SON

Brood550: Cease pitched on the 17th.  That would be 3-days rest.  And against the Astros of all teams.  Was sure he was not getting the call this time.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I thoguht he started on Wednesday

LFC Mike: not for the board.. but  is that Jacksonville, Fla?..that is my hometown

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, my dad’s sister.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, sorry

Dan Szymborski: My dad died when I was still a teenager and we didn’t know his side of the family all that well – he was much younger than his siblings.

Dan Szymborski: My dad’s siblings are both in their 80s. Dad would have been 70 this year.

Zach: Is Ryan McMahon close enough to being a lousy player in his 30s to get many ABs moving forward?

Dan Szymborski: He may have to go elsewhere before the Rockies sign him back.

Chechen Warlord: Hello Dan.  We received your name from Kiley McDaniel, who has refused our demands to name and describe 7 zebras at different zoos across the United States.  Will you name these zebras and provide entertaining anecdotes about each?  If not, Kiley dies.

Dan Szymborski: Rick the Zebra (Cincinnati Zoo) is an angry atheist.

Dan Szymborski: Arbez the Zebra (Baltimore Zoo) dreams of being a regular horse.

Dan Szymborski: Zebulon, Zebrassiere, and Z-Horse (different zoos) are in a tontine together.

Dan Szymborski: Z-Dice escaped the Miami zoo and with the help of hair dye, is hiding as an American flag.

Dan Szymborski: Blutpferd in Zoo Berlin is fed the sedated bodies of German children who misbehave.

Dan Szymborski: Can Kiley live now?

Zach: Will the Astros ever give Josh James a chance to start?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Matt: Regarding spinach and arugal: Did you mean to say “either” or is it in the very specific situation where they’re combined that they must be raw?

Dan Szymborski: Either. Most vegetables I will only eat raw

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, has there ever been a player projection that made you convinced ZiPS was broken, and you spend a bunch of time trying to figure out why and it turns out that their ‘correct’ projection was just wya higher or lower than you thought?

Dan Szymborski: Well, there was a the time I must have hit an extra 8 and Jose Molina was projected to have a 1.200 SLG

Dan Szymborski: Also, I messed up something with a team record when running team projections last night. I put the Marlins as having a record of 113-31, so they had surprisingly high probability of making the playoffs

Sean: Dan, thanks for answering the question regarding player variance. Would it be possible to create and publish how volatile a player is? For instance, you have two players with a 110 wRC+ projection, but one has a huge range of outcomes but the other has a much narrower range. The first one would rate highly in volatility while the second would rate low.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve tried — and have struggled — with a way to make it easy to understand for the layman.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not always just hoarding projection stuff. I really want to offer stuff that people can understand and use in a practical fashion

Chech-fil-A: Our Chechen sandwiches are the envy of the world.  Would you like one, Dan?  Sadly, you cannot have one.

Joe: Do you ZIPS NCAA guys?  Curious if a projection system would find Rutschman as exciting a cornerstone of the next good Orioles team as the scouting/hype hints at?

Dan Szymborski: I only do when I’m forced to. It’ ssomething for me to review long term

Bort: A Jon Gray for Brandon Belt trade would be interesting, wouldn’t it? I mean, yeah, Daniel Murphy’s in the way there, but if he wasn’t….

Dan Szymborski: If the Rockies can’t completely commit at this point to throwing in the towel on Desmond after 2 1/4 years of sucking, a player who never should have been signed by them in the first place, they’re not going to give up on Murphy, an actual good signing of a player that was injured

jkim: Also it’s crazy that the best lefty on the Dodgers now may be Hyun Jin Ryu

Trent: Rick the Zebra was not always an angry atheist.  It was his sampling Cincinnati chili that ruined his erstwhile faith and amicability.

Dan Szymborski: True. Cincinnati chili does make one believe that there is no god.

Matt: Dan, we don’t care about your opinions on Zebras. Stick to chili. At least you’re well informed about that wrong opinion.

Dan Szymborski: LIVES WERE AT STAKE

Big Money Benny: Think Mallex Smith turns it around this year? Another guy that has been brutal to start.

Dan Szymborski: I still believe in him.

bb: If you were marrying a woman named Danica Szymbobski, would you hyphenate your last name or leave it as is?

Dan Szymborski: After all this training to get people to spell my name correctly?

Thomas: Did Maddon have a legitimate complaint about Doolittle?  And even if he did, do you think the decision to raise the issue was motivated more by gamesmanship than by actually protecting the interests of his players?

Dan Szymborski: I think he does given the Edwards precedent.

Dan Szymborski: I think MLB is too strict with deliveries

Dan Szymborski: I like a little deception!

Dave: Do you think Adbert Alzolay comes to the bigs this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think he could apepar down the stretch

tan mom: are zebras white animals with black stripes or black animals with white stripes?

Dan Szymborski: Neither. They’re a void with stripes draped over them.

Billy Beane: Spinach can be cooked inside a ravioli and still be good. But by itself, you are correct. Steamed or creamed spinach is terrible.

LFC Mike: Thank goodness we finally had a slam on Cincinnati chili..the streak must be kept alive…..

Guest: Raimel Tapia – is he beginning to fulfill his fantasy potential?

Dan Szymborski: Coors is always a great place for fantasy potential. Even Desmond isn’t completely worthless in fantasy

Voldemort: Which team goes yard the most this year: Twins or Brewers?

Dan Szymborski: I think it oculd be Houston

Eastman: I have started seeing ads for adult diapers on fangraphs!! I assume it has something to do with my browsing history. Maybe since I had a baby recently, I’ve triggered some general “diaper” category for the ad service, but that seems awfully sloppy. Anyhow, I just think that is funny.

Dan Szymborski: Everything you’ve ever done in your life is tracked for advertisement!

Dan Szymborski: Which worries me – I remember the period wheN I suddenly started getting email spam for gravestones and cheap insulin. Is that how my doctor informs me of things?

Ljay Newsome: What’s your favorite part about Ljay newsome?

Dan Szymborski: That he’s getting that K/BB in the minors with a Jered Weaver fastball

Dan Szymborski: I’m skeptical on how he’ll do in the high minors, but he’s certainly earned the opportunity

Skip: Star Wars is played out, and now with Game of Thrones over, what’s the next MLB/MILB promo night that will sweep the nation?

Dan Szymborski: Finnegans Wake

OddBall Herrera: Why can’t there just be an option that Zebra’s simply have striped pelts?  We need to rid ourselves of this zebra absolutist thinking

Dan Szymborski: Zebras live in a world without gray

Voldemort: Dan, are you a fan of Luis Robert?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Lou: Will Giants ownership let Zaidi do his own things or will they meddle (like the Harper chase, i doubt Zaidi wante to sign him)?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say at this point. I suspect that they’re more resistant to rebuilding than most teams but he’ll earn more autonomy in the end.

Adam: Can we re-evaluate the balk? It makes no sense how a little twitch can result in runners advancing while 90% of lefties get away with not stepping off the rubber before picking dudes off.

Dan Szymborski: I still only know about 25 of the 134 things that lead to a balk

romorr: As another Oriole fan, Adley at 1.1, or Vaughn under, and over on 2.42?

Dan Szymborski: I really think it’s going to Rutsch Hour on I-395.

Gub Gub: I’m starting to think “balk” means “my ass hurts and I need to stand up straight for a second”

200 Ks for Bryce: Willians Astudillo is currently at half of ZiPS’ projected strikeout rate for this season. Clearly he broke your projection system.

Dan Szymborski: It’s quite possible

LFC Mike: MacKenzie Gore is not breaking a sweat at A+ so far this year 1.07 ERA 58K in 42 IP  as expected…The Padres are not shy about advancing players…does he debut in 2020 or 2021 …assuming full health..which is crazy for a young pitcher I know…

Dan Szymborski: I think he coudl start 2020 with the team

BC: Any guesses when the super 2 “deadline” will pass?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say as the more teams that push players forward, the later the date gets.

Voldemort: Which closers do you see getting moved before the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: While I can’t see the Giants really moving what’s left of their core, I *can* see them moving Will Smith

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Shane Greene

LFC Mike: Why couldn’t his name be Raimel Talapia…so many opportunities for terrible puns

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Clayton Kershaw is 31 and looking pretty pedestrian coming off a disappointing-for-him 2018.  King Felix (RIP) looked pretty cooked at 30, posting 1.1 fWAR after a disappointing-for-him 2015.  If Kershaw’s career arc follows Felix’s, is there any chance he gets overlooked by HoF voters, or has he earned enough accolades already that he’s a lock?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s close to a lock.

Dan Szymborski: Even King Felix has some chance, I think.

Cat Latos: MEOW

Dan: Hunter pence…how long does the miracle last? Matt Olson a better bet ROS?

Dan Szymborski: I’d certainly take Olson

Tito: When do we start seeing other teams go “full opener” after the success of the Rays having it replace 2 rotation spots?

Dan Szymborski: We’ll see teams tinker, but I don’t think anyone’s going as all-in on the Rays

Dan Szymborski: a lot of what the Rays are doing is driven by the personnel they have.

Dan Szymborski: If they had five healthy awesome starters, I think we’d see them in a more typical role

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Tim Tebow slashing .157/.216/.231 for a wRC+.  Is this the end of the road for our hero?

Dan Szymborski: Tebow draws because he’s Tebow, not because he’s good

Magic Kingdome: Worse MLB promotional tie-in:  Spiderman 2 or Game of Thrones?

Dan Szymborski: Spider bases

Magic Kingdome: Is zebra chili a white chili?

Dan Szymborski: No, I think zebras are red meat

CinnReds: Jess Winker=toast? Or is there a turnaround coming?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll turn it around

Matt: Yanks are on the same HR pace as they were at this point last year, and are like 25% behind the two leaders. Will that normalize, or is a team going to blow the Yanks HR record out of the water?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll normalize, but they have a lot to make up

Dan Szymborski: SO I don’t think they’ll lead in homers

French Lick Preparation H Donkey: Worst minor league team name  ever……game over

Cookie Monster: ZiPs is strangely high on Tapia despite a career high k rate, chase rate and lowest contact rate. Why?

Dan Szymborski: Stuff like chase rate you don’t see in the in-season model, which is designed to be simpler

Chase : Would it make sense for the Angels to acquire some cost-controlled SP? Not a great enough team to trade for rentals, but the bullpen and lineup are pretty good. Just the SP that needs some significant help.

Dan Szymborski: I think it would. There’s some uncertainty past this year and the Astros aren’t at the end of their success road yet

Hammer: How much stock do you put in Yordan Alvarez’s numbers? .411/.484/.883 with 18 hr in 39 games makes my numbers in most video games look bad

Dan Szymborski: THe thing is, the more video game a number is, the more likely it’s real.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if there’s a name for it, but there’s this weird paradox in which people think an .800 OPS hitter hitting .850 is more likely a real mimprovement than an .800 OPS hitter hitting 1.100. The opposite is true!

Dan Szymborski: Pressly for sure.

Dan Szymborski: He’s better than Harris.

Dan Szymborski: And I’m really uncomfortable with suggesting that domestic abuse is baseball’s newest inefficiency.

Voldemort: People talk about Yordan Alvarez like he’s the second coming of the Dark Lord

Dan Szymborski: Evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

PD: Astudillo makes TOO much contact, right?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t bring those heresies here!

Morbo: What do you use to program zips? R, python, excel, java script, an assembly language?

Dan Szymborski: These days, Excel with some specialized plugins and some visual basic. Statistica used to be a part of it — it’s what we used in college! — but I’ve gotten that out of the works.

Dan Szymborski: out of the mix

Dan Szymborski: I’ve always been hampered somewhat by not having a programming background.

Turtles: Are your chats always this bizarre? I quite like it.

Dan Szymborski: This is actually unusually normal for my chats.

Matt: Dan, admit it – ZiPS is actually just a hamster on a wheel randomly selecting projection outputs.

Dan Szymborski: I used to tell the ZiPS origin story as me pulling paper numbers from a hat that is a family heirloom because it was worn by Anthony Eden, but people interviewing me kinda want me to tell the real stories, not the bizarre things that pop out of my mouth

Panda Bites: Everyone always talks about Archimedes’  Death Ray, but did you know he also invented Lik-M-Aid and the everlasting gobstopper?

Dan Szymborski: Willie Wonka built a death ray?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, WILLY WONKA IS ARCHIMEDES? ARCHIMEDES IS WILLY WONKA?”

Luhnow: Which would you say was my most underrated reliever acquisition – Harris, Pressly, or Osuna?

Dan Szymborski: ^^^^ I actually answered this question a few lines ago, I just failed to hit the correct button. It wasn’t a completely non sequitur.

Mike: So, all of the talk in the offseason about whether Adam Ottavino could strike out Babe Ruth got me thinking: would any major league pitcher at this point have trouble striking out Eddie Gaedel? If someone threw him in a game right now and a pitcher had six pitches (three balls to spare) they could all get three strikes over the plate at the correct height, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think most could with some practice.

RJ: We haven’t even brought Markakis or fake prospects yet, Turtles.

Dan Szymborski: I MADE KAKEY REAL

Dan Szymborski:

Morbo: Dammit I was hoping that you programmed using assembly language like a true monster

Dan Szymborski: Jus tdon’t have the background

LFC Mike: is it a source of pride or shame that you have the most bizarre chats of any FG writer?

Dan Szymborski: Pride and shame are the same chinese character!

Dan Szymborski: (hoping nobody actually know Chinese here)

Dan Szymborski: Let’s finish with leftover Szymborski images from this week

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: In fairness, it was Kakie Bryan.

Dan Szymborski: Crap!

Siri: Is Ross Stripling still in the MLB? Haven’t seen him in a while…

Dan Szymborski: I think he pitched a few days ago!

Mickey Callaway: Am I going to be fired?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a really good shot. Callaway’s a pre-BVW holdover and usually GMs get at least one manager fall guy before they feel the heat.

Dan Szymborski: And if the Mets turn around, someone’s gonna get dragged to the guillotine in a cart.

Dan Szymborski: DONT turna round

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: But is Callaway the *first* manager to be fired? Or is that Davey Martinez?

Dan Szymborski: I think Callaways goes first

Archer: Will Miguel Cabrera hit more than 5 home runs this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but still a disappointing tital

Dan Szymborski: total

Dan Szymborski: on that note, time for me to shuffle on this chattal coil.

Dan Szymborski: Hope to see you all in two weeks! (Memorial Day next week)