Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/22/25

Dan Szymborski: Chat time chat time, something that rhymes with chat time

Dan Szymborski: lime!

Dan Szymborski: slime!

Dan Szymborski: grime!

Dan Szymborski: splat chime!

Dan Szymborski: fat dime!

Guest: If you could ‘relegate’ one MLB franchise, UK soccer-style, and ‘promote’ a minor-league city into MLB, which cities would you choose?

Dan Szymborski: relegate oakland/las vegas, promote Charlotte

Key Flaw: If you were a hitter and had to pick a percentage where your strikouts would equal your walks, what what you pick? For optimal output or aesthetics? (beyond the outliers around 0% and 50%, though those would be interesting…)

Dan Szymborski: Not sure output, but I don’t like standing around, so 1% walks and strikeouts

M: thoughts on Parker Meadows? Considering stashing him, wondering if you’d prefer him to any of Stowers, hays, Mullins or cowser?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure he’s obviously superior to them, simply because injury and you don’t realy get compensated for his defesne

GB: what percent does Zips give Judge to win the triple crown?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t actually run it, but maybe I will next week!

Sodo Mojo: Did the Mariners wait too long to trade Harry Ford he doesn’t seem to have a path in Seattle with Cal entrenched and his prospect shine seems to have dimmed a bit in the last year.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like he’s been awful or anything

Dan Szymborski: but there were a lot of questions, so I’m not sure ther was ever a big lucrative deal out there for him

Matt VW: Every full MLB season since 2018 has featured at least three 100-loss teams. From 2003-2017 there were zero seasons with three or more 100 loss teams. Is the recent lower floor just a blip, or is there a real shift driving it?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the strategy about rebuilding has really changed all tha tmuch

Bruce: What AAA hitting stats / qualities translate the best to the big league level?  Which ones “mean” the least?

Dan Szymborski: Generally, power and aggression translate best. Really passive players (not a lot of balsl in play, high walk rate) tend to translate poorly, which ZiPS takes into account in translations

Billy Bob: Should the Mariners look to add a 1B, 3B or OF at the deadline or just roll with what they have?

Dan Szymborski: I think they ought to look at the bats available, but it’s hard to say EXACTLY what will be most crucial in two months

Alec: choking mime!

Dan Szymborski: If you choked a mime, would they make a sound? Or would they keep to the bit and only motion that they are choking?

4 fWAR: A week ago, only Aaron Judge had made it to 4 fWAR. Today, only Aaron Judge has 4 fWAR (now it’s 4.3)

Dan Szymborski: He’s a really good player!

Wirefan: Is Zips buying into Trent Grisham’s early season success?  How many PA’s when a guy has a somewhat established baseline are needed for ZiPS to start weighting a potential breakout?

Dan Szymborski: To an extent, ZiPS was never really down on Grisham, so it’s not grumpy about his season

Dan Szymborski: But there’s no X PAs since a breakout isn’t a binary tihng. The larger the breakout, the fewer the PAs needed to see a real long term change

Dan Szymborski: That’s why I have a bloated mess of algorithms to sort through it!

Al: How worries are we about Yelich?

Dan Szymborski: mild-to-moderate

Dan Szymborski: “Have mild-to-moderate worry about a baseball player? Ask your doctor if Yipsazepam© is right for you!”

Concerned Citizen: Dear Mr. Fangraphs, There are too many projection systems nowadays. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.

Dan Szymborski: Ideally not ZiPS? I like buying stuff

v2micca: As a Braves fan, how concerned should I be about Spencer Strider.  It wasn’t just his velocity, but his breaking pitches lacked depth and bite and his command looked off.

Dan Szymborski: Now you need the drug to have moderate-to-severe baseball worry, Pennantotrol© (basebolanum tarate)

the person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing today!

Oaktown Blues: I imagine you’ve seen some of the Veo3 demos. Exciting? Scary? Both?

Dan Szymborski: Frightening, but interesting.

Dan Szymborski: Change *is* frightening, especially dangerous change. But I’m a believer that when change is coming, you need to do your best to integrate the changes, since changes can’t really be stopped.

victoria: what’s the best pop song of the 2020s?

Dan Szymborski: Now that I couldn’t answer. I wasn’t really a pop song guy at any point, but I’m getting old enough that I’m not really connected with that bit of culture

Dan Szymborski: if you ask me about indie folk rock or straight up indie rock or something, I might be able to answer, but I’ll probably be biased towards bands that had cultural relevance 15 years ago

Dan Szymborski: Like, I’d probably say Fleet Foxes Can I Believe You

Dan Szymborski: but I’m going to be 47 this month. I’m probably nto the guy to ask these things to, if I was ever

Ceddy B Ready: NO! More projections please! MORE!

JB: Has Jackson Chourio’s career outlook taken a hit by the offensive profile we’ve seen since he’s been in the majors?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’ sa hit, his weakneses have always been well known

Uncle Spike: If you get abducted by a group of mimes, they will do unspeakable things to you.

Wirefan: Does ZIPs distinguish between caught looking K’s vs swinging?  Are caught looking K’s less projectable?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. And it’s complicated

Bruce: I mixed some basebolanum tarate with a glass of white wine, ended up having lunch with Pete Rose.  He ordered the most expensive thing on the menu and skipped out on the bill.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (sicne there was a Grampa Simpson thing earlier)

Your Name: Are there ‘real’ park factor stats for Sacramento, Tampa, Baltimore yet? How long will it take to get a rough idea? That park in West Sac is looking like a bandbox

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of noise in park factors, it takes a few years

Idiotic Failson: Is Semien just like, bad, now?

Dan Szymborski: I fear he is. At least no longer a star

Brandon Pfaadt Fan Club: Who is your favorite player who you’re sure is good but hasn’t proved it yet?

Dan Szymborski: Adley Rutschman 🙂

Dan Szymborski: or is that a 🙁

Bob Loblaw: Who comes out on top in a mascot Royal Rumble? Guaranteed the rally monkey is the first to go.

Dan Szymborski: Do the Mets get Grimace? I think he’d win. Mr. Met is pretty top heavy if they have to use him, so I think it’ dbe easy to get him over the ropes

Dan Szymborski: The Phanatic ought to have fairly low center of gravity

Oaktown Blues: Making the yips drug a benzo is only sensible, good call

War2d2: The Cubs’ bullpen is nightmare-inducing. What, realistically, can they do at this point in the season? If you were Jed would you call David Robertson, or do you think a 40yo that’s been on the shelf for a quarter of a season is a bad investment? (that was supposed to be sarcastic but now I’m actually wondering)

Dan Szymborski: I’d certainly call up David Robertson. You can only lose money really.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a below-average bullpen and likely to stay one of the teams weaknesses

Key Flaw: Middle-aged Dude question: If you had to choose between having a full head of hair that is completely gray or a head of greatly thinning, full-color hair (no dying, rogaine, or toupe), which would you choose? It is the classic Steve Martin vs. Bruce Willis conundrum.

Dan Szymborski: I guess the question is whether I have to get gray the color or the natural color that *my* hair changes

Dan Szymborski: I definitely have a receding hairline (though not as much as you may think as I’ve always had a bit of a five or sixhead) and a thinning crown

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had any of my hair hairs change from the slightly reddish dark blonde/light brown it’s been since my teenage years

Dan Szymborski: but if I don’t shave for awhile, I’ll start getting bright white hairs in my beard

Dan Szymborski: if I can have the snow white Donald Sutherland hair, I’m down with graying with a full head of hair, even what goes for a full head of hair for me

Dan Szymborski: if mousy gray, it’ sa closer call

Mick Donfort: Any ideas on how to fix the Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: Monforts stay far far away

Ceddy B Ready: Look, don’t be ashamed. Just say Taylor Swift’s Anti-Hero and move on from the pop songs.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really know the song. I know Shake it Off because that was playing everywhere for a year. And I know I Knew You Were Trouble mainly because the nerdy reddit meme for a while of someone mashing that weird Brotherman Bill song with it

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Just like I know Cooking By the Book because of the joke Lil Jon mashup

Johnny5Alive: Like I know the media loves to overblow things and the stats are still very good (just not what’s expected). Last night looked atrocious, struck out in first two at bats without ever taking the bat off his shoulder. What’s up with Soto? Heel turn?

Dan Szymborski: Passiveness is an eternal danger for a highly disciplined hitter

Guest: Who can the Cubs trade for at the deadline because their closer role is still in question?

Dan Szymborski: It REALLY depends on who is avaialble

Dan Szymborski: Like if the ERA is coming down to the peripherals and the O’s are still far out of it, I think they may trade Cano

Oddball Herrera: I think you go full head of graying hair 100% of the time. Not everyone has optimal head shape for baldness, and with white/gray hair you always have the option of going Full Gandalf

Ceddy B Ready: Anti-Hero is a great storytelling pop song. It has Folksy pop vibes, especially the acoustic version.

Dan Szymborski: I think I’ve just largely aged out of the genre. Like, I’ve bought a ton of albums in the 2020s, but they were all bands I was listening to in 2000 to 2015

Dan Szymborski: like yeah, I’ll buy a new decemberists or new pornographers album just because one is out, but any person my age who isn’t already a fan probably isn’t going to be

Lord Thunder: Will Max Muncy be on the Dodgers’ roster a year from now?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: unless you mean the other one, which is no

Dan Szymborski: (Want to make sure no loophole)

Old guys: The Eovaldi article a few days ago mentioned research that guys who throw lots of different pitches in any count outperform their stuff.  Can that help explain Sugano?

Dan Szymborski: It could, but we don’t have a TON of Sugano starts yet

laughingstock: Are you planning to incorporate the new bat-tracking stats into ZiPS in some way?

Dan Szymborski: If they improve the model, I’ll add Oma’s spaetzle recipe

Oddball Herrera: These new swing path stats are neat but I wonder at their usefulness beyond IDing negative deviations from what made a particular batter successful. There are just too many ways to successfully skin the batting cat…

Dan Szymborski: Now, I don’t *hurry* to incorporate new things. A lot of times, something new is largely being captured indirectly

Dan Szymborski: And a lot of times, the new thing is more complicated than it looks

Taker55: Is it safe to say now that Vladdy wasn’t beating $500mm on the open market this winter?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe he was going to, even without a rather meh start

Dan Szymborski: I think the Blue Jays looked at the abyss and thought about trying to re-sign and missing out *again* on a guy they want to pay a lot o fmoney to

Taker55: Every 2026 FA list seems to like Cease over Michael King and I just don’t see it. Who would you rather sign long term?

Dan Szymborski: Weirdly, I think King

Dan Szymborski: Given that starting pitchers aren’t expected to go 7-8 innings a start anymore

Dan Szymborski: I think keeping pitchers relievers for a while and then moving them to the rotation is going to be a continued thing

Dave: I absolutely hate the narrative that Juan Soto isn’t worth it.. Reports like he’s gained too much weight, he doesn’t like it New York make me mad. He is still an above average hitter despite him going through a slump. This guy will likely be 150 WRC+ for years to come

Dan Szymborski: There’s really no reason to get mad. The Mets and Soto are tied for life, so it should always be about what makes him better

I am the Apple: Felix Hernandez has a borderline HoF case as a starter. What would ZiPS project his career WAR to be as a reliever? Would he still have been a borderline HoF pitcher, or would it have been an easier yes or easier no?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even positive that he misses on peak. I’m going to have to consider it this fall

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t projected him as a reliever psecifically

Guest: Better hitter. Agustin Ramirez or Drake Baldwin.

Dan Szymborski: I think purely as a hitter, Ramirez ha the higher upside

Guest: who will have more 2026 war, A Barger or LAD Muncy

AB: Best Ween album?

Dan Szymborski: Quebec

Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, I just thought the answer to the last Q and didn’t actually type it

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I forget how communication works sometime

Dan Szymborski: I think Muncy. Barger’s actually been solid this year, but I’m not sure solid enough that he grabs a job

Dan Szymborski: if the Dodgers tire of Muncy, he’ll end up a platoon DH somewhere and get good playing time that way

Guest: Where would you rank xwOBA overall as an evaluator of a hitter?

Dan Szymborski: These numbers are all solid, but one has to remember that the longer a player outperforms/underperforms these measures, the more likely there’s a deviation in skill from the model

Eric: What’s more likely, Conforto recovering from his putrid start, him continuing to scuffle but staying in his spot, or him scuffling and being replaced at the trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I think at this stage, he’s largely a stopgap starter/fourth outfielder. It’s been a long time since he was *good*

Dan Szymborski: I mean, he hit SOME last year, but he better since he doesn’t really have any defensive value

AB: Good choice but imo hard to beat the Mollusk

Bouncy Bouncy: What’s up with Christian Walker? Is he gonna turn it around with all these k’s?

Dan Szymborski: Him I’m cautiously optimistic about. His contact rate isn’t all that different than his career and he’s still hitting things hard

AB: Roengardner kid for real? He’s throwing 100+

Dan Szymborski: Injury prone

Benny Agbayani: Juan Soto has an .803 OPS next to his almost all red Baseball Savant rankings. This is nothing, right?

Dan Szymborski: Probably

Yordone: I’m losing faith in the Astro’s transparency w/re injuries. O/U number of hands currently attached to Yordan’s body: +/- 1.5?

O’s Woes: O’s won last night, so… fixed? Can they do enough to compete this year? Should they?

Dan Szymborski: They CAN, but they really need to have a crazy tear soon

Dan Szymborski: The math is really bad

Guest: what if the difference in the RoS version and the UPD version?

Dan Szymborski: RoS is rest of season updated projection

Dan Szymborski: Update is the RoS added to wha’s already banked

Rudy Waltz: How bad is the Bryan Reynolds contract going to look for the Pirates by the end of the year?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty bad as it looks so now

Dan Szymborski: and the Pirates are going to use it as an excuse to not spend on players

Dan Szymborski: Well, an additional one of course

John Paul: There is no way Skenes get traded right?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there is any way he gets traded this yera

Taker55: What is your confidence level on Mike Elias building a pitching pipeline?

Dan Szymborski: It’s…volatile

Taker55: Should we be looking more at those 190+ pitch starts that Sasaki threw in high school ? It’s not seeming like this is going to have a happy ending

Dan Szymborski: I think a lot of the damage done to pitchers is pre-professional damage that’s lurking

J: Not that it would ever happen but with the Skenes trade talk I was thinking about how the Red Sox might be the only team that matches up with the Pirates in a way that could work for both sides. What do you think about Wilyer, Kristian, Roman and Marcello, for Skenes?

Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to trade for Skenes for the simple fact that a fair trade for Skenes is going to be an absurd moving of talent

Dan Szymborski: I love Skenes, but I rather have those four that Skenes, even if we assumed for the sake of argument, that their expected value is exactly equal

Dan Szymborski: I’m just not a put all my eggs in one basket type of guy, especially when it’s a PITCHER

Isaac Paredes: I can’t imagine what you mean by “the longer a player outperforms/underperforms these measures, the more likely there’s a deviation in skill from the model”

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: I should note that ZiPS is aware, which is why it was higher on Paredes this year than most!

Guest: “The math is really bad” the math is fine, the implications for baltimore’s chances… not so great /pedantry

Henry Dodger: Colorado is on pace for 26 wins. That can’t happen, can it? CAN IT???

Dan Szymborski: It could. They’ve been so lousy that they could play better ball, closer to their talent level, and still beat the white sox

Coolidge: I wish fiscal conservatives still, you know, existed.

Dan Szymborski: So do I

Ceddy B Ready: I want to develop a projection system called UMPYASS. Which is basically what happens when OOPSY and Jonah Hill make chili inside a materialized view.

Guest: Mandatory cat update!

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is sleeping in her cave. Justianian is sleeping on my office couch as he usually is this time of day

Dan Szymborski: last I saw Constantine, he was asleep on my half-build PC

Dan Szymborski: Not sure what Mercutio’s up to. Last I saw he was hanging out in the Pentapus. He’s doing well as he got his monthly arthritis short earlier this week

Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to be happy when he starts on kidney food next week. On his senior blood panel (he’ll be 17 in August), the SDMA test suggests very early kidney issues, so I’m starting him on the diet immediately.

Lord Thunder: When would you call up Bubba Chandler?

Dan Szymborski: Now

Defensively Challenged: Jackson Holliday is all of a sudden the highest WAR guy age 21 or younger this season. It seems to be really his defense holding him back right now. Is it that bad, or just unstable numbers at this point?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried about it yet. It’s not like he’s Hanley Ramirez out there

Dan Szymborski: he’s young and he advanced through minors very quickly

Guest: Can someone give me the numbers on the last 5 games of the braves hitting Righties

Dan Szymborski: Guys, we have the splits leaderboard RIGHT THERE for you!

Dan Szymborski: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=212,2&s…

Dan Szymborski: 309/378/423, wRC+ of 125

Dan Szymborski: YOu dont’ even need to be a member to use it!

Dan Szymborski: (I don’t think)

Guest: What happened to MATT DAMON?

Dan Szymborski: Ben Affleck got his own couch

Ceddy B Ready: I’m the designated idiot on the bar trivia team that listens to new music. My taste is eclectic enough to not lose my mind every time Ariana Grande squeaks something out into the world.

AB: who do you see in World Series this year?

Dan Szymborski: baseball teams presumably

Dan Szymborski: I’m thinking Tigers/Doders

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers

AB: And don’t sleep on white pepper!

AB:

• we are showing our age lol

Dan Szymborski: I miss being one of the young analytics guys

Dan Szymborski: Dave Cameron and I were both teenagers in the usent days

Dan Szymborski: usenet

Dan Szymborski: How am I just a few years from being 50? I own three pairs of shoes and I’m not sure where I put my one tie

baseball fan: which prospect has widest gap between median outcome and 80th percentile outcome?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe someone like Quinn mathews?

Jeremy: Does ZiPS believe that Mick Abel suddenly has good command?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does not

Guest: Dan, there was a reddit post a few days ago suggesting that after the WAR switch to XBR certain plays (i.e. the hustle double) may be overcounted. Any new thoughts on this?

Dan Szymborski: I followed up on that post! David’s going to talk to Tango about the best way to unwind any double counting

Ceddy B Ready: Dude, don’t give away all the 47 year old secrets! I have 4 pairs of shoes.

Key Flaw: You say you play piano and some other band-type brass. If you could choose two other instruments to know how to play (instantly downloaded like on the matrix), which ones would you pick (one has to be a non-weird one)?

Dan Szymborski: Guitar and violin

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been playing piano for more than 40 years

Dan Szymborski: I can credibly play the larger brass instruments (tuba, euphonium, trombone) and I’m passable with trumpet

Dan Szymborski: And I can play clarinet and oboe, and I like playing along to vivaldi concertos on my boxwood tenor recorder

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t play any of violin/cello/viola/bass or guitar, so it would be interestingi and different from the things I normally play

Dan Szymborski: my friend Mike’s dad has crafted violins for 40 years, but he sells them for 15-20K a piece and I probably can’t get THAT Much of a discount

Ceddy B Ready: “I’m Dan! I have many talents. Look at me! Look AT me!”

That’s what you sound like, Talent Boy.

Dan Szymborski: I like playing music!

Guest: where/how’d you keep up with all these instruments? i played clarinet in 8th grade

Dan Szymborski: I work from home and have always been musical

Dan Szymborski: I never had the skillset that playing professionally would have been a thing; those people are SUPER talented

Idiotic Failson: I went to my kid’s band concert last night and now I imagine you sitting up there playing Imperial March

Guest: is it safe to assume that Steamer use the same process for RoS and UPD?

Dan Szymborski: if definitionally then yes

Dan Szymborski: obviously the process is different

Ceddy B Ready: I learned bass guitar when in was a teenager. I was so bad that my girlfriend at the time offered to pay for the prom limo if I would just stop. That was a sweet $100 I saved.

KC Pain: Do you think KC makes SOME sort of move for OF help or are they really pinning it all on current OF + Jac?

Dan Szymborski: I think if they were serious about a move, they would have done it last offseason. GOing into the season with melendez/renfroe as starting corners was malpractice

Dan Szymborski: Oh, there are a few questions about what a pentapus is

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: That’s Justinian, AKA Doctor Pentapus

Key Flaw: Oh the Imperial March, that would definitely be my walkup song. Did Harrison Bader ever use that? Has anyone? (even if it is a ripoff of Mars, it is an all-time great)

Dan Szymborski: nto a lot of orchestral walk up music

Dan Szymborski: I’d use the start of the second movement of Prokofiev’s Scythian Suite as my walkup music

Dan Szymborski:

Idiotic Failson: No way I’m clicking on a link called ‘pentapus’. Nice try, HR.

War2d2: Personal feeling is that Imperial March would work better as a closer’s entrance music.

Dan Szymborski: I think the problem with that is the Empire lost in the final act

Dan Szymborski: That’s inauspicious for a closer

buffy, the umpire slayer: thanks on the ROS & UPD explanations. How often do you update the RoS?

Key Flaw: The Scythian Suite sounds like battle music for EU4! I’m ready to invade Anatolia now

Dan Szymborski: The simpler in-season model is updated every morning automatically

Dan Szymborski: What I call “full fat” ZiPS is batch-run in the middle of every month, and whenever else I want to do it for a specific article I’m working on, if need be

Dan Szymborski: To fully run ZiPS takes a little over a day for two PCs running simultaneously

v: Does it bother you as much as it bothers me that MLB calls automatic doubles “ground-rule doubles” on gameday? They’re different things!

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think of that!

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to depart

Dan Szymborski: thanks all for coming! and see you next time

Guest: “To fully run ZiPS takes a little over a day for two PCs running simultaneously”
can’t you just let the guy who came up with it run it? ; p

Dan Szymborski: there’s no power in the oubliette