Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/27/21

Dan Szymborski: IT IS CHAT TIME

J: More likely to be moved by the deadline: Haniger or Seager?

Dan Szymborski: Haniger

CeddyBReady: So, all it took was giving up on hitting righty to get my stuff together.  Can you comment on how a change in handedness will impact the projection for Ceddy Mullins going forward?  Viva la Switchies!

Dan Szymborski: It should have some impact in season-to-season. less so in-season since it’s a simpler model

Dan Szymborski: You see switch-hitters with platoon splits give it up from time to time

Dan Szymborski: Usually the ones who have big splits, for obvious reasons

Dan Grant: Are Ke’Bryan Hayes hitting improvements real?

Dan Szymborski: If you mean a wRC+ of 200, no.

Dan Szymborski: But there’s reason to think that he could theoretically be an average first baseman offensively now. That he’s an awesome defensive third baseman makes it even better!

Dan Szymborski: You know who else hit like an average 1B and was awesome defensively? ADRIAN BELTRE

Dan Szymborski: You thought I was going to say the aristocrats, but that doesn’t make any sense here

Dan Szymborski: Not that I’m predicting he’s Adrian Beltre

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had Hayes at 22 MLB WAR, tenth in the majors, before the 2020 season. And that was when ZiPS was ambivalent about his bat and thought he’d be a 90 OPS+ hitter for his career

Dan Szymborski: That was up to 106 and 30 before this season

Frothing Mets Fans: What’s up with my boy Franky Lindor?

Dan Szymborski: I’m…not sure

Dan Szymborski: He’s seemed oddly passive at the plate

Dan Szymborski: But nobody’s going to look good to your eyes when you know what their line is

Joseph: Yasmani Grandal… what’s this guys deal?

Dan Szymborski: Four years, $73 million.

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry)

Dan Szymborski: He believe in non-passive resistance to pitches he doesn’t like. He’s Plate Discipline Gandhi.

Maddoning: The Angels are going to waste another year of Trout and Ohtani, aren’t they?  Who can we blame for this travesty?

Dan Szymborski: It’s the Angels curse

Dan Szymborski: I really wanted to see them end up with Bauer

Dan Szymborski: Ohtani is amazing though

Cave Dameron: Dan, have you ever dabbled with doing projection systems with other sports (NBA, NFL, competitive yo-yoing)? Thank you

Dan Szymborski: The first two

Dan Szymborski: NBA farther along than NFL, but I have so much baseball stuff to do that it’s way on the back burner

Dan Szymborski: Did a lot with NFL when I was with ESPN, but the problem you run into is that, due to injury rates, you really should rarely predict a RB to have 1000 yards preseason and there’s no way fantasy players don’t scream bloody murder about that

Jacques Pederson: What did you think of the Shildt/Gallegos/Joe West incident yesterday, along with Shildt’s post game press conference?

Dan Szymborski: On the one hand, MLB should investigate.

Dan Szymborski: And shildt is right to be upset; the enforcement of substances seems to be quite arbitrary

Dan Szymborski: On the other hand, I assume that Joe West is in the wrong because of Joe West’s extensive history of being exactly wrong.

Eric the Red: have Castellanos and Winkers Zips dramatically changed due to their blistering starts? And flip side has Suarez Zips been negatively changed due to his terrible start?

Dan Szymborski: About 25 points of wRC+ for both in ZiPS ROS, which is about as dramatic as you’ll get in season

aj: Gleyber Torres, not a terrible defender at SS now ?

Dan Szymborski: Still talking small sample

Dan Szymborski: Nice to see some life in the bat after an execrable start

Gordon Lightfoot: Quit slaggin my lyrics!

Angels fan: When is the Angel prospect list coming out? Feeling rather neglected, here.

Dan Szymborski: Gotta ask Eric! It’s his baby!

Red: Hey Dan, who would you take in a fight: Spencer Torkelson or a level 29 Torkoal with a white smoke and overheat setup?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Torkoal. I don’t know how you fight a human sized tortoise

Dude: Can you please tell Jaffe to do JAWS with fWAR? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know the fully story

Dan Szymborski: but I believe that since it was done with BR for so long, it was agreed to keep it with bWAR for stability

Gordon Lightfoot: What would it take for the Jays to get Kris Bryant and Hendricks?

Dan Szymborski: A LOT

Jewish Pache: How legit is Austin Riley? Running a .400 BABIP and his wOBA > his xwOBA but the xwOBA is still .370. We buying in or is this just a hot streak?

Dan Szymborski: He’s on a hot streak, but I think he’ll still be fine

Brad NJ: is Bundy a buy low right now?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Fangraph’s Lurker: All hail the lunch time chat! lets talk chili and sammiches

Ghost of Bill James: What’s more likely, that we see someone hit .400 again, or an ERA under 1.00 (qualifying)?

Dan Szymborski: ERA under 1

TomBruno23: Wanna guess who leads all MLB SS in wRC+ with a minimum of 50 PAs, at 184?

Dan Szymborski: CHARLIE BLACKMON!

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry)

Dan Szymborski: I did a clickbait headline thing neural network run for baseball and there’s a funny Blackmon one in there

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: near the bottom of the middle column

Dan Szymborski: So, after a few requests, I then generated an article for that headline

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And then, since the article reference Blackmon’s feud with Ben Affleck (!), I generated an article on THAT theme

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Yup, this is how I spend my life

Guest: The White Sox getting Adam Engle back is that enough that Rick Hahn will not look to acquire an outfielder and instead wait until Roberts and Jimenez come back later in the year ?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, yes.

Cat Latos: Am I dumb to start learning to code now and actually think I could get a job in baseball entering my 40s?  Gonna learn anyways since I can get a not-baseball job

Dan Szymborski: Learn something because you want to learn something and then see what happens

Dan Szymborski: Brian Cartwright sells a lot of data to teams and he’s like in his 50s I think

Dan Szymborski: Thought I might be fooled by his mustache

Dan Szymborski: I assume everyone with a mustache is 55

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: 55.

Cat Latos: What do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski: Justinian is sleeping on top of the computer

Dan Szymborski: Constantine is on the steps playing with his cat toy that’s shaped like gym pants

Dan Szymborski: Last I saw Cassiopeia, she was making that weird chattering sound at cicadas outside one of the windows

Dan Szymborski: And when I grabbed a drink before lunch, Mercutio was asleep in a guest bed

Cowboy Joe West: I have umpired more games than anyone. Fact. I have sold more CD’ s at flea markets than anyone. Fact. I disagree.

TomBruno23: I have been good about switching from coffee to water after one large cup from St. Louis Bread Company. I encourage all of you to do the same. The baseball world needs us.

Billy Beane: Dan, I finally have all my keyboard parts thanks in large part to your recommendations and I have a great keyboard now. Appreciate you.

Dan Szymborski: I’m glad you’re enjoying it!

Defenestrater: To be fair to Joe West; it was the second base umpire (Dan Bellino) who raised the alarm, not West.

Dan Szymborski: WHY ARE WE BEING FAIR TO JOE WEST?

Curious George: Why does anyone take Zips seriously?

Dan Szymborski: The Szymborski-controlled media.

Walk-in Song: You are a closer, what do you walk into?

Dan Szymborski: Opening of the second movement of Prokofiev’s Scythian Suite

Dan Szymborski:

Chris: Would you claim lindblom or should he be unclaimed?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what the choice is

Dan Grant: Rest of the season, Bundy or Paddack?

Dan Szymborski: I’d still say Paddack as I’m a deluded believer

zurzles: Hey Dan, trying to impress my beautiful family with some homemade Szymborski Sztew. In what order should I add the julienned mushrooms, pickled beets, and quail livers?

zurzles: Also: do I really have to let it simmer for 3 weeks? My children are hungry

Dan Szymborski: 3 months, not 3 weeks

Dan Szymborski: also, I’m allergic to mushrooms, so I cannot partake.

TomBruno23: When will .300 become the new .400?

Dan Szymborski: We’re not at that point. But .350 may be

Norm: Baddoo has started hitting again and cut the Ks and increased the BBs dramatically this month. Am I crazy for being incredibly bullish on him as a starter long term? He had only a small amount of pro experience coming into this season

Dan Szymborski: Not crazy. The thing is he doesn’t have a long record – uncertainty can be a good thing

Kyler: With Ozuna about to miss a good chunk of time what is the Braves’ best option to fill his spot? I’m afraid it’s going to be Ender in CF and Heredia in LF which is… fine but not great.

Dan Szymborski: IVE GOT A PIECE IN THE QUEUE

CeddyBReady: Could you please stop apologizing for “Szym’ing” people.  They deserve it.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think I had earned a verb yet

Bob: I just want to say that 2021 Wilson Ramos is genuinely the worst defensive catcher I have ever seen. Is this his last season as a major leaguer?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I’ve seen Peter O’Brien

Dan Szymborski: He’s definitely running out of time as a starter

Dan Szymborski: I can see him getting a year or two in an ill conceived bench role

zurzles: Is this what Joey Gallo is now? Was there any reason to expect him to repeat 2019? Also is this what Matt Chapman is now? Was there any reason to expect him to repeat 2019?

Dan Szymborski: I’m mostly given up on Gallo being more, but I’m still cautiously optimistic on Chapman

Sodo Mojo: The Mariners……are not good.  Do they have enough talent that if they can add 5-8 WAR in free agency this off season they can compete for a wild card spot next year?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so

Dan Szymborski: It’s a weird organization that feels like it froze in transition mode somewhere

TomBruno23: I have learned how to make money abritraging White Castle Impossible Sliders around the neighborhood. I can teach all of you how to do the same and create your own source of steady income.

Dan Szymborski: They have Impossible sliders?

Dan Szymborski: I see they do

Al Gone Quinn: XL gym pants?

Dan Szymborski: The toy gym pants are tiny cat toy ones. They came in their monthly kitnipbox when the theme was gym equipment

Dan Szymborski: like there’s also a catnip barbell somewhere

Rehab Failure: Is Syndergaard toast?

Dan Szymborski: No

Al Gone Quinn: Did you see Jeff Zimmerman get owned by his own children on Twitter yesterday?

Dan Szymborski: No, I didn’t! Poor Jeff!

zurzles: I need to stop buying my recipe books off the black market

Fun With Words: you are tasked with inserting a hapax legomenon into your next article.

Norm: Would you claim Lindblom if you are Detroit? Urena just got pulled from his last start with forearm issues. Also, their pen is atrocious

Dan Szymborski: I think I would

TomBruno23: Of course they do and, go figure, they pretty much taste the same as the Not Impossible Sliders.

Dan Szymborski: I rarely have White Castle

Dan Szymborski: The nearest is a significant drive away from anything I normally drive to and my girlfriend detests them so will loudly complain and punch me in the shoulder repeatedly if I suggest sliders

JT: This is my walk-up music and it is better than everybody’s. Shut up.

SadYanksFan: Kluber’s injury feels like the end of the mirage for the rotation. How worried should I be?

Dan Szymborski: As long as Cole is healthy, the wheels likely stay on

Norm: I just watched Heat with De Niro and Pacino last week and it was absolutely terrible. No pacing, paper thin characters, and tons of cheesy dialogue. Why is this movie well regarded?

Dan Szymborski: I think part of it is it hasn’t aged well as a lot of the tropes have become more common

Dan Szymborski: ThougH I still like it way better than you do

Nate: Does ZiPs show any sympathy for the Tigers rebuilding efforts?

Dan Szymborski: No, not really

JT: PS: I told my 10-year-old daughter that that will be the song for our daddy-daughter dance at her wedding, straight popping and locking. Dope.

David: With recent years’ changes in what offense looks like, in what way has the break even point for stolen base success rate changed?

Dan Szymborski: When the negative cost for an out goes down and the relative benefit of a base goes up, break-even is a bit lower

CeddyBReady: HEAT IS A GODDAMNED MASTERPIECE OF ACTING AND DIRECTING!  All I want is for Bobby to run away with me!

Dan Szymborski: I wish I could set up street fights insice chats

CeddyBReady: Szym’ing – Obvious opening taken for one’s own amusement, usually followed by unnecessary apologies in a chat room.

TomBruno23: Ricky Horton actually said this on the broadcast yesterday, “You really do not want to force John Gant into a situation where he has to throw strikes.”

Dan Szymborski: Imagine that you were poisoned and the antidote can only be won at a carnival game by having a friend knock over battles with a baseball

Dan Szymborski: Would YOU take Gant right now?

TomBruno23: Volumes will be written about the Angels’ squandering of The Mike Trout Era.

Jonathan: How long will Crawford keep this up? Trying to hit the sell high window before it closes.

Dan Szymborski: Probably not long

Dan Szymborski: Him and Posey have been ridonkulus this year

Rodney: Does ZIPS have capacity to adjust for negative hitting impacts that seem connected to players playing out of position, or being asked to slide up the defensive spectrum? Thinking of guys like Dom Smith and Nick Senzel here…

Dan Szymborski: No, it’s a bit beyond scope

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found substantial data to support such a thing

Dan Szymborski: Not htat it doesn’t happen, but the range of results is all over the place

Keefths: What’s the deal with Shane Bieber ? He seems like a different pitcher. Walks are up and barrel % is very high

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually thinks he’s “earned” his walks so far. His first strike percentage has dropped way off

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, door

Dan Szymborski: I think in the end, the answer will be that long-term, 2019’s the more realistic level for Bieber

Dan Szymborski: The walk rate increase has been msotly against lefties

Dan Szymborski: He’s kinda trusting his changeup a lot less this year

Dan Szymborski: and I wonder if there’s some interaction here

Danny Almonte: Is there a player who has fallen off a cliff at any point and you never had much of an idea why?

Dan Szymborski: hopefully not Lindor!

Dan Szymborski: Pujols

Dan Szymborski: (unless the age rumor turns out true, but I only know what I can prove)

Danny Almonte: What player from the past (or players) do you think would most benefit from the analytics and such of now?

Dan Szymborski: I kinda wonder about Ted Williams

Dan Szymborski: he certainly thought a lot about it as a science

Dan Szymborski: but you can also argue that he also possibly instinctively grasped all the things we see with data?

Norm: Point Break, on the other hand, is the perfect action film

Dan: Either you or Ben promised a chilli oil recipe this week and forgot or I had a fanGRAPHS/top chef mashup fever dream….

Dan Szymborski: I think that was ben

Dan Szymborski: You need a recipe for that?

Dan Szymborski: oil, dump in hot chilis and maybe something like a little garlic. wait

Dan Szymborski: though you could use sichuan chilis. tehy have a very different taste

Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you read every question starting with “What’s the deal” with Jerry Seinfled voice? I do

CeddyBReady: I WANT TO KILL THAT MAN FOR NOT KNOWING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A HEIST FILM AND AN ACTION BROMANCE!

Dan Szymborski: We are a murder free zone

Appa Yip Yip: Chili oil is easy you mash up a bunch of spicy chilis in your mouth, pour oil down your gullet, swish it around, then spit it into a jar. 👍

Guest: Me and my beautiful wife tried szyming last night and we both developed gout

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for another week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!