Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/6/19

Dan Szymborski: The hatches are battened, the sails are trimmed, the splines have been reticulated, and the hedgehog has been hidden, so let’s do this!

Gub Gub: If you were a long-haul trucker, what would you name your truck?

Dan Szymborski: Trucky McTruckface.

Colin: Dan, do you think Jose Ramirez turns it around? What would you project ROS?

Dan Szymborski: I still suspect that he does.

Dan Szymborski: Though I still don’t quite get why he’s so BABIP anemic.

Dan Szymborski: Even last year, which still ended overall as a really terrific season despite a late season slump, he only had a .252 BABIP

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thought he should have had a .317 BABIP in 2016 (actual .333). ZiPS though he should have had a .316 BAIP in 2017 (actual .319)

Dan Szymborski: Now, these are the post-season analyses based on the advanced hit data for the season, nto the predictions going into the season

Dan Szymborski: So nothing looks weird yet.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thought he should have a .287 in 2018 (actual .252). One of the biggest misses.

Dan Szymborski: and this year, ZiPS thinks he “should be” at .270 and he’s at .224

Dan Szymborski: So there’s a real problem in there and I’m not sure the why

LFC Mike: Happy Monday Dan. Happy  May baseball too. Can you make it so the Reds always wear the throwback uniforms? They are fantastic. Please tell me Chavis won’t lose playing time as Pedroia et all return from injuries. He has really played well. Finally.. no matter how rough and tumble this chat gets.. we will never Disqualify you and take you off the board.

Dan Szymborski: I’M UNDISQUALIFIABLE

bang bang whats the hang: Corey Kluber. I know they’re saying he’s going to get “re-evaluated in 3-4 weeks” but his 2019 is cooked right? Even best case he’s back in 3 months but he’s probably going to have no arm strength right? Any historical pitchers we can compare this injury to?

Dan Szymborski: There aren’t a ton of broken arms, though maybe I’m forgetting more

Dan Szymborski: The most gruesome was Tony Saunders, but that was more based on his physiology while Kluber’s was a regular ol’ smash and crunch

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t John Smiley also not come back for one?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll be cautiously optimistic, at least the reports I saw, it was a pretty clean break

Acunami: Let’s talk catchers – top catchers seem to be the one group performing up to expectation. Should teams regret not anteing up for Grandal and Realmuto?

Dan Szymborski: They should have already. *Especially* with Grandal. How can you let the Brewers outbid you with *that* contract?

Bread Gardner: Okay, so when do the wheels *actually* fall off for the Yankees?

Dan Szymborski: They seem to be playing 2019 using the adaptive difficulty settings. The more they win, the more players get injured.

Bread Gardner: According to reports, Brett Gardner apparently once drove from NYC to North Carolina without realizing his radio was off the entire time.  And in his first season, he didn’t get an E-ZPass and sat in traffic every day on the way to the Stadium.  The conclusion is obvious: he’s a serial killer.

Archer: Have the Tigers found something in Spencer Turnbull?

Dan Szymborski: I think so. He was better than his 2018 stats in the majors too

Bread Gardner: Worst baseball name in history?

Dan Szymborski: Bob Walk. HE’S A PITCHER

Acunami: Did Nick Markakis make a deal with a minor demon for first half dominance? If so, what did he offer? His first-born pup?

Dan Szymborski: Greece’s economy

Ben: What should Braves do with Austin Riley? He’s tearing up AAA, has nothing left to prove, but he’s block by Donaldson.  I’d hate to see him sit in AAA all year, but it seems that’s what’ll likely happen.

Dan Szymborski: I think you bring him up later in the year as an extra at-bat, spell in the corners. I’d give him some time in elft and right to be comfortable

ADHD Skyline Chili: This is a terrible name for a racehorse…:but the Skyline Chili will make him run all day! This ends the weekly Skyline Chili insult.

Magic Kingdome: Boy, Cleveland’s “let’s not worry about the outfield or the bullpen because we are coasting to the AL Central title” is sure working out great, right?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody can say they weren’t warned.

Dan Szymborski: Guys, one of the reasons I don’t answer questions is because they’re an entire article worth of answers. You can’t expect my brain to stuff hours of thought into a 20 second question!

Smith: Matt Olson projects for 18-21 home runs per his player page. Is that taking into account the potential of a hamate injury to sap his power?

Dan Szymborski: It is not

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS knows injuries in the main year-to-year version, but I don’t think any of the in-season rpojections know specifics about injuries

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How valuable would Mike Trout be if he suddenly were a catcher? What about a pitcher in the NL?

Dan Szymborski: He would master the position so thoroughly that he’d make every single pitch look like a strike and robot umps woudl be instituted by August, of course.

Braves fan : Do you think Mike Soroka can be one of the best pitchers in baseball one day?

Dan Szymborski: Can? Yes, but I think of him more as a #2 guy.

Lipstick: How are projected standings adjusted for injuries to major players? The Dodgers lost Pollack – a major WAR contributor – but their expected W/L doesn’t seem to have changed at all

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers are well-equipped to deal with injuries, given their history

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget, Pollock’s chances of being injured were already baked into the cake.

Todd: Is Brandon Lowe the real deal? he seems to be duplicating his coming out party in AAA last year.

Dan Szymborski: Depends what you mean by real deal? Questions that are hard to falsify can be difficult to answer

Dan Szymborski: If you mean real as in he’s a .950 OPS guy, probably no.

Dan Szymborski: But if you mean real as in increased confidence that he’s perhaps a mid 800s guy now? Sure

LFC Mike: Can you list all the ways the Rockies will frustrate me by not playing Tapia everyday?

Dan Szymborski: They’re all Desmond related!

Acunami: Ender Incarte for Franmil Reyes – who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Padres

Magic Kingdome: Do the Padres make a major “win now” move or just fiddle around the edges?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll fiddle unless they see a real trade opportunity

Hbp: Who are some players that Zips is extremely aggressive on (a few years out), relative to other systems?  I think I remember you mentioning Adell and Bieber in the past…

Dan Szymborski: Giovanny Gallegos

Dan Szymborski: Soto

Alex Rodriguez: Do they have PEDs that help with singing the seventh inning stretch? Asking for a friend.

Dan Szymborski: PRACTICE IS A PED

Eminor3rd: Do we (the sad, pathetic few who have NOT watched HBO’s Game of Thrones because we have been waiting for an unspoiled Winds of Winter) have any slight prayer, hope, or chance of avoiding spoilers about the ending? Is there any strategy that can be employed?

Dan Szymborski: Stay off social media completely

Dan Szymborski: And waiting for George RR Martin to do his job is a fool’s errand!

Magic Kingdome: Booked a Mother’s Day brunch place bringing in Alaskan crab. What’s the best accompaniment — drawn butter then dust with Old Bay?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even allowed to enter Maryland if I eat Alaskan crab.

Dan Szymborski: But Old Bay is always useful

Gordon Tremeschko: What pitcher(s) are appointment television for you when they’re starting? I’ve become a big fan of watching any Luis Castillo start.

Dan Szymborski: PADDACK

Dan Szymborski: Bauer

Dan Szymborski: Glasnow

Dan Szymborski: Nola, Berrios

Matt Kemp: will i die alone

Dan Szymborski: Love and defense aren’t correlated

Jay: Is it time for Padres fans to view Margot as more of a 4th OF than the CF of the future

Dan Szymborski: No

Also Dan: A lot of talk about the Jays wanting to blow it up but aside from Stroman who is going to bring back any real value. Giles? Smoak?

Dan Szymborski: I think you’ll still have Sanchez believers.

Magic Kingdome: Which is a bigger priority for Houston:  another corner bat or a starter who would be an improvement over McHugh/Peacock/Miley in a Game 3?

Dan Szymborski: I think they can wait on events

Ben: 12 tone music (Schoenberg, Webern, Berg, etc) Yae or nay?

Dan Szymborski: Fully atonal has never really been my thing

Dan Szymborski: OK, *technically* 12-tone doesn’t have to mean atonal, but there’s a correlation

Dan Szymborski: I tend to like tonality being *stretched*

Dan Szymborski: but when you get into hardcore Stockhausen or Berio, I tend to not be into it

Damn Szymborski: Upper deck along one of the lines or lower deck outfield?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like the view of games from the lines

Ryan: Are the Twins the favorites to win the Central now? And since they’re the favorites, they probably shouldn’t worry about making any moves to make the team better, since that’s what AL Central favorites do, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Indians are the mild favorites, but they only have themselves to blame

Ted: Dan, do you have any idea why Gary Sanchez’s xwOBA is always lower than his wOBA. Is it just pure luck or something?

Dan Szymborski: HOnestly I haven’t looked at the issue

Bring Back deSpaniel Hair: Help!!! What to do with P. Alonso? Already have N Cruz and Freeman, but Alonso for a closer feels light

Dan Szymborski: I’d rather trade Cruz if I can

Matt: Dan, I saw you interacting with Jeff Blehar on Twitter. Seemed like a kinda random person for you to know…

Dan Szymborski: Esoteric!

Dan Szymborski: He’s one of the old original Baseball Think Factory readers

Dan Szymborski: I’ve known him for a long time now.

Dan Szymborski: I think everybody has people that others are surprised they know well

Dan Szymborski: FOr me, people are usually surprised by Jeff, Peter Spiegel (Financial Times), popular poker analyst Kevin Mathers, and general troublemaker Rich Kyanka from Something Awful.

GSon: Smiley was a very different situation.. his upper arm was ridden with cancer. and required amputation as a result of the break and cancer found..

Dan Szymborski: That’s Dave Dravecky!

GSon: Is it time for the Indians and Danny Salazar to part ways?

Dan Szymborski: No

dave in slc: are you a fan of the new pitcher for the angels, canning?

Dan Szymborski: Yup

Damn Szymborski: Griffin Canning the next Angels starter where you go “hey he’s pretty good”?  Was he named after Alfredo?

Dan Szymborski: I once accidentally referred to him as Noel Canning

Srhkthew2: What is the baseball equivalent of James Holzhauer’s run?

Dan Szymborski: Trout

CamdenWarehouse: I could’ve phrased that better

Dan Szymborski: That could be my epitaph

DEF: If someone wanted to add Ohtani’s pitching projection to the DMB disk this year, what exactly whould they do? Just putting the projections in doesn’t appear to be working – Ohtani pitches like a good-hitting DH would be expected to hit.

Dan Szymborski: You could use the ZIPS

Dan Szymborski: People were annoyed that he didn’t get a pitching projection on ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: But it’s the Joe Mauer Rule. I will project an injured player

Dan Szymborski: *but* if it’s an injured player that will play otherwise, I won’t rate them for the *portion* of playing they can’t do because of injury

Joe Don: ZAP, you’re a GM. Under what circumstances would you sign Matt Kemp?

Dan Szymborski: I’m an AL team, my right-handed hitters aren’t great, I look to have an easy path to the playoffs, it’s August 31, and there are a lot of top lefty pitchers on likely playoff opopnents

Damn Szymborski: What’s the next most controversial food after chili?  Barbecue?

Dan Szymborski: Hot dogs?

Dan Szymborski: Anything ketchup related?

bbb: will Joey Votto turn it around?

Dan Szymborski: He’s done it before, so I’m still hopeful

DEF: Most gruesome broken arm? Dave Dravecky against the Expos. Sounded like a gunshot.

Dan Szymborski: Saudners was pretty bad

Peet: What if the DH swapped leagues every two years?

Dan Szymborski: Yuck

Mike: Where would you put the odds on the White Sox making the playoffs at least once in the next 5 years? Between the offseason shenanigans and a new pile of injuries starting to form (including possible TJS for Rodón), I’m feeling very pessimistic.

Dan Szymborski: 60%? Making playoffs is not *that* hard and five years is a long time

CamdenWarehouse: I’m waiting for the books to be finished or for Martin to die. So I do have an out for when the series is left unfinished.

Dan Szymborski: HI can see him totally burning all his notes

Slapshot: I know it’s just May, but it seems like the Nationals are destined for another disappointing season, given the talent assembled.  What do you think the biggest reason is for their perpetual ability to underwhelm?

Dan Szymborski: They do get bit sometimes by their lack of depth

Dingo Man: Would u trade Dahl for Marquez

Dan Szymborski: Yes, in real life

Dan Szymborski: In fantasy, no

Soto: The Cubs now have the best run differential and a game out from having the best record… KB and Rizzo’s BABIP are both 70 point lower than normal, so some hot streaks may be coming soon. I know cocky Cubs fans are annoying, but is alright to feel confident?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, people panic too much

Roger: Re: bad baseball names, there’s a pitcher in this draft class named Kyle Hurt.  In true pitching prospect fashion, even when he’s healthy, he’s Hurt.

Dan Szymborski: Rip Torn-UCL

Archer: If Manuel Margot catches a fly ball that’s going over the fence, is it a Margot Robbie?

Dan Szymborski: I will allow it.

CubFan: Are Vlad’s early struggles more to do with pitchers already knowing what he can’t handle or he’s just overwhelmed by the huge expectations that have been placed on him……or both? How long will the Jays allow him to struggle before sending him down to regain his confidence?

Dan Szymborski: I’d put it on 8 games is meaningless

Mr. Met: How his Homer Bailey not the worst baseball name?  It would be fine if he was a hitter!

Dan Szymborski: But that name kind means homer WALL

Dan Szymborski: Like he’s a wall that stops the home runs

Guest: Does Forest Whitley provide any value this year in a deep league or should I move on?

Dan Szymborski: IN a redraft, I dont’ think he’ll have much value

Skipper Brad: Am I proving to be Eppler’s biggest mistake?

Dan Szymborski: It’s early, but I was never a fan of this

Gary Sanchez: thank you for believing in me last year, i’m still very good at hitting

DEF: Dan, re: Ohtani. Can you check out the DMBO or BNSL boards – putting the ZIPs projections in doesn’t seem to be working. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: Thats’ weird

jonathan: Any chance Albert Pujols is a few years older than his listed age of 39? Might explain his amazing play at official age 20 and rapid decline recently. It can’t all be fasciitis.

Dan Szymborski: There are all sorts of old rumors.

Dan Szymborski: But I only know what I can prove.

Matt: If ketchup were served hot and in a bread bowl, would it be soup?

Dan Szymborski: Gross soup

Pancakes: Is Brendan Rodgers the 2nd baseman for the Rockies  y June or is McMahon and Hampson’s leash longer than that?

Dan Szymborski: The Rockies don’t promote their htiting prospects with any urgency

Yobagoya!: BEES HAVE DESCENDED ON GREAT AMERICAN BALLPARK SOS SOS SOS SOS

Dan Szymborski: Glad I didn’t go because of chat

Gordon Tremeschko: The Giants-Reds game is currently being delayed by a swarm of bees

Damn Szymborski: Which player from your youth has the biggest spread between (1) how bad you thought he was at the time and (2) how good he actually was once you got into sabermetrics?

Dan Szymborski: There was no time there was a spread. I got my first Abstract at 7

Matt: 144 boxed of Cup Noodles, now that’s gross soup.

Dan Szymborski: eww

Gil: This is kinda what Amed Rosario is, right? If he ever gets more than okay with the bat, you’ll be surprised and, at best, he’s a mediocre SS with the glove. Given the hype ahead of his promotion, just being a big league regular seems a tad disappointing as a Mets fan.

Dan Szymborski: If anything, it’s his glove being disappointing that’s the disappointment.

LFC Mike: Is Cleveland already thinking tear down/rebuild with Kluber and Clevinger down. .Bauer could get a great return…  I would love to see him traded to Houston so he and Cole could become Bffs again. They could have a nice chat over apple juice and graham crackers.

Dan Szymborski: Theya re not

Chris: I vote for Andrew Groundsintoatripleplay as the worst baseball name.

Dan Szymborski: Poor Ron Wright

Dan Szymborski: Got one MLB game in his career.

Dan Szymborski: Strikeout, double play, triple play

Mannix: Know anyone who can take care of some bee’s so this Reds game can get underway?

Dan Szymborski: Oprah

Matt Font: Do you think that Cano will end the season closer to .250 or .300?

Dan Szymborski: .250

Dan Szymborski: I’t snot like he’s been terribly lucky in BABIP

Dan Szymborski: I think 2018 was his career high

Fantastic off-the-cuff wit-bot : The White Sox used a position player to pitch down 5 in the 9th on Friday, but not down by 14 in the 9th on Saturday because ___________.

Dan Szymborski: fart

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, it’s a Mad LIbs Q)

Dan Szymborski: Gotta rest Rondon’s arm!

Dingo Man: What happens to Clint Frazier when everyone returns

Dan Szymborski: Like *that’s* going to happen on JobShip

Not Matt: 144 boxed of Cup Noodles was my weekly diet in college. Do you even poor bro?

Dan Szymborski: There’s so much good ramen

kevinthecomic: Worst baseball name: Shady Tree.  Oh wait, that was a secondary character in a bad James Bond movie.

Dan Szymborski: The dude with the clawed hand in Live and Let Die was named Tee Hee

Gob Bluth: BEES?!?

Al Gone Quinn: Would a VanMeter be a gauge that monitors the # of hitchhikers you pick up? Or maybe one that measures thc content in the air in the back.

Dan Szymborski: Monitors the correct amount of rockin’ in order for passer-bys to not come a-knockin’

mike sixel: If I’m a rebuilding team w/o four young OFers, I sign Kemp and hope he rebounds so I can trade him. If not, who cares

Dan Szymborski: Rebound to what?

Dan Szymborski: Ain’t nobody trading for Kemp

Tim: Miggy’s slugging % is below what his OBP used to be.  Is he just too slow to leg out doubles and is the power totally gone?  Time to put him out to pasture in a fantasy capacity?

Dan Szymborski: I’m definitely off Miggy in fantasy

LFC Mike: How often do you get to Chicago? Enjoy the Giordano pizza…but the Malnati deep dish butter crust is fantastic.

Dan Szymborski: Once in a while.

Dan Szymborski: For those who are unaware, we just got a Giordano’s in Ohio

Dan Szymborski: So I was excited to try Giordano’s when I didn’t have to drive five hours

Dan Szymborski: So helpfully, everyone on Twitter game me Chicago places I should go to instead

Dan Szymborski: When the key fact of note is that Giordano’s is 15 minutes away

kevinthecomic: Since the tomato is fruit and not vegetable, wouldn’t that make Ketchup a smoothie?

Dan Szymborski: Ketchup isn’t edible

Dennis: Jeff Mcneil said he doesn’t do any preparation on pitchers and doesn’t take in to account any analytics. I cant help but dream how good he would be if he only would.

Dan Szymborski: Different people manage things differently

kevinthecomic: Sometime in the late 80s/early 90s I was at a Blue Jays game that was delayed due to moths (or some kind of icky flying bug) — they turned on the AC full blast for about 20 minutes to blow them out of the stadium and then closed the roof

Dennis: I noticed over the past few seasons the mets under performed there preseason wins projections.   Can it be a contributing factor that the projections assume the team uses analytics to optimize their talent and the mets do not so they consistently under perform?

Dan Szymborski: Have htey really?

Dan Szymborski: Let me see

Dan Szymborski: Mets have underperformed, but it’s .507 vs. .498 over last five years

Dan Szymborski: .491 vs. .486 over last ten

Dan Szymborski: That’s not enough to conclude something meaningful in the apttern

LFC Mike: Perhaps ex Brave pitcher Steve Apiary could help in the Reds game

Sad Halo: Does Ausmas get a pass this year because the Angels really aren’t trying to win until next year, once their youngsters begin making an impact?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure you give a manager a pass for this.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like managers are born with a bucket of awesome decision-making and they have to portion it out safely

Dan Szymborski: I remember watching in horror as my mom turned the wrong way down a one way street. And her totalling her mazda 3 by running into a neighbor’s fall cleanup pile.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I said “No, it’s cool, you’re just saving your good driving just in case I buy you a sports car.”

slap bunter: The Mariners are still second in all of baseball in wRC+.  Surprised at all?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I just don’t expect that to persist

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for my to hit the ol’ dusty trail!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone, hope to see y’all next week!