Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/13
| 12:01 |
: Will the circle-change be unbroken, by and by, by and by? The answer to this and a percentage of other questions asked coming up next, on the Dan Szymborski Baseball-Related Chat of Doom and Ultimate Destruction!
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| 12:01 |
Homer Bailey or Lance Lynn rest of season? |
| 12:02 |
: Irish Creme by a sip.
|
| 12:03 |
Can you explain why HBP and BB have different weights in wOBA? |
| 12:03 |
: It’s from historical data. Most likely is that HBP is more random — some unintentional walks are going to be “partly” intentional and those “partly” intentional walks are, on average, going to be given in slightly lower leverage situations.
|
| 12:04 |
Curious as to what you expect from Grandal once he comes back. I did not see ZiPS on his player page. Would you expect more of the same as last year or would you discount his offense as a result of the positive PED test? |
| 12:04 |
: As of yet, we do not have sufficient evidence of significant changes in future performance after positive PED tests.
|
| 12:04 |
: So I expect him to be about where projected.
|
| 12:04 |
Have you seen JD Sussman’s take on the recent Gausman outing he watched? He gives high praise for the pitcher! |
| 12:04 |
: I have not, though I shall check it out.
|
| 12:04 |
: I’d like to say I had a busy weekend, but I really didn’t.
|
| 12:05 |
: I mostly watched baseball and played Borderlands 2, which I finally got around to playing.
|
| 12:05 |
Facing Houston pitching this week should help, but what are the easiest fixes for the Royals’ offense? Thanks for chatting. |
| 12:06 |
: At this point, the easiest fix is patience. Now, it may not be a fix, but the Royals in-season options are limited unless they’re going to part with players of significant value
|
| 12:06 |
Travis Wood and Scott Feldman: Who nets the Cubs a better prospect at the deadline? |
| 12:06 |
: Wood has more value, but I suspect the Cubs hang onto him unless they’re bowled over.
|
| 12:07 |
Who should the Cardinals use as their 4 and 5 starters? Who will they? And what are the odds both are better than a healthy Westbrook? |
| 12:08 |
: I’d definitely want to start getting Rosenthal back in there, but unless I’ve missed something, they haven’t shown much inclination.
|
| 12:08 |
: After all, if they were really wanting to do that, he would’ve gotten the nod before Gast did.
|
| 12:09 |
: And since they’ve added Tyler Lyons, odds are even longer of them doing it.
|
| 12:09 |
: I’m not super optimistic about either, but I wasn’t optimistic about Westbrook either.
|
| 12:10 |
: Once again, when I watch Westbrook pitch, I think of the “Homie the Clown” episode of The SImpsons in which Krusty is betting on the Generals over the Globetrotters.
|
| 12:10 |
: And the Globetrotter is spinning the ball on his finger and Krusty’s yelling at the TV “HE”S SPINNING THE BALL ON HIS FINGER! JUST TAKE IT!”
|
| 12:10 |
The Cubs season in a GIF-nutshell: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2615443/scottfeldman.gif (h/t: Jon Bois) |
| 12:11 |
Chris Davis + Aramiz Ramirez for Verlander. This is as lopsided as I think it is right? In a keeper no less .. |
| 12:11 |
: I’d prefer Verlander, but I’m much more optimistic about Davis’s level being significantly better than it was previously. It’s not quite as lopsided as you think.
|
| 12:11 |
What is more shocking: Delmon walking on 4 pitches or Chapman giving up back to back homers? |
| 12:12 |
: Delmon.
|
| 12:12 |
Will the Pirates finish above .500? |
| 12:12 |
: Slightly.
|
| 12:12 |
Is Machado this good or is this a function of his first time through the league and people have to figure out how to pitch to him? |
| 12:12 |
: He’s very good, though I don’t think *quite* this good
|
| 12:13 |
: But last year was his first time through the league.
|
| 12:13 |
is Braun for Hosmer/Middlebrooks/Lincecum just really dumb in a 5th year, 16 team, 5×5 keep 12 or worth actually protesting? |
| 12:13 |
: I dont’ think it’s a protest-worthy trade
|
| 12:14 |
What is your take on the Phillies pitch running cliff lee (a 35 year old pitcher) for Delmon (a 27 year old outfielder)? |
| 12:14 |
: If you have an outfielder that you feel less comfortable running than your best pitcher, it sheds a very poor light on the thought process that led to that signing in the first place
|
| 12:15 |
How feasible would it be to transition from being in public accounting with a CPA to the financial side of a major league organization? How high could you start out at in the organization? |
| 12:15 |
: That seems tough – they’d be most interested in accountants for the accounting department
|
| 12:16 |
: Unless you had noted contributions to the baseball analysis community.
|
| 12:16 |
What is going on with Moustakas. A week ago, it looked like he was over his slump. Now he looks terrible again. What does his ROS look like? |
| 12:17 |
: I still think he’ll be OK. A sub-.200 BABIP isn’t sustainable unless you’ve stuck an actual little leaguer in there or something
|
| 12:17 |
: *Pitchers* tend to be in the .220s.
|
| 12:17 |
Do you like Ryu? What sort of line does he end up with? |
| 12:18 |
: He still smells #3ish.
|
| 12:18 |
: Unless you’re talking about Street Fighter Ryu, who will no doubt hadouken his way to the playoffs.
|
| 12:18 |
How do you see Odorizzi performing tonight vs Toronto? |
| 12:19 |
: Something like 5/3?
|
| 12:19 |
Did Chris Johnson sell his soul to the BABIP Gods? |
| 12:19 |
: I don’t think he sold his soul, he just consumed that of MIke Moustakas.
|
| 12:19 |
I stashed a few TJ pitchers on my bench in a dynasty league. What are your thoughts concerning Danny Duffy, Joe Wieland, Drew Hutchison, and Arodys Vizcaino? |
| 12:20 |
: TJ pitchers are by their very nature speculative stashes, so there’s a huge array of possibilities there. I’d be most comfortable with Wieland, I think.
|
| 12:20 |
14 teamer, I need OF help BAD. Real bad. But have pitching. Who should I trade out of Felix, Gio, Harvey, Cahill, Minor? (Yahoo redraft 6×6 (OPS, K/BB) |
| 12:21 |
: Honestly, it’s hard to say becuase I don’t know how the other owners in your league consider those players.
|
| 12:21 |
: You shouldn’t ever focus on who you want to trade but about what you can get for which player.
|
| 12:21 |
Do you like Eric Chavez to outperform his ZiPS ROS projections? |
| 12:21 |
: No.
|
| 12:21 |
Any of these strugglers droppable in 12-team H2H (OBP instead of AVG)? Aybar, Montero, Moustakas, Weeks. |
| 12:22 |
: Depends on who you’re dropping them for.
|
| 12:22 |
Besides almost getting arrested for being underage and attempting to purchase alcohol… |
| 12:22 |
: I wasn’t almost *arrested* I don’t think.
|
| 12:22 |
: BUt it was awkward.
|
| 12:22 |
: Those that don’t follow me on Twitter (and thus, bad people), the story was I was picking up a bottle of vermouth at the grocery store
|
| 12:23 |
: The cashier didn’t believe I was born in 1978, asked me if I was using an older brother’s ID
|
| 12:23 |
: and called in the manager. Who looked at me an announced that he was sure that I was in my 30s because of my slightly receding hairline and the lines on my face.
|
| 12:23 |
: Now keep in mind this was at a grocery store on a saturday, so there were a lot of people behind me.
|
| 12:24 |
buying ubaldo’s resurgent K-ability? |
| 12:24 |
: Not sure if I’m buying yet, but I’m at least fingering my wallet and wondering if I should run by the ATM.
|
| 12:24 |
: He tricked us last year a few time with really solid runs.
|
| 12:24 |
Thoughts on WTF is going on with Brett Lawrie? |
| 12:25 |
: I’m not sure he’s actually completely healthy.
|
| 12:25 |
Have you heard anything more specific than “rumblings” on Ethier being traded to make room for Puig? Any partners or targets? |
| 12:25 |
: I have not heard anything specific. These Dodgers *always* think they have the pot odds.
|
| 12:25 |
Rickie Weeks…RICKIE WEEKS?! Jesus…please tell me hes going to get better. |
| 12:25 |
: I keep saying to wait, but it’s getting pretty frustrating.
|
| 12:25 |
How broken is Ackely? Is moving him up to #2 in the lineup recently, an act of desperation? |
| 12:26 |
: It’s surprising me too, but I think he may need to beat up the PCL for a few weeks.
|
| 12:26 |
: He really *looks* confused there.
|
| 12:26 |
Who do I take for the rest of the season: Colon or Straily? |
| 12:27 |
: still straily. unless you’re talking about your actual colon
|
| 12:27 |
: Not Using a Colostomy Bag > Straily > Colon
|
| 12:27 |
Is it time to give up on V-Mart? He still looks lost…can’t believe he’s not hitting to his career averages… |
| 12:28 |
: I wouldn’t trust him at all at this point. He’s not driving anything.
|
| 12:28 |
Who finishes with a higher wOBA, The Astros or Josh Hamilton? |
| 12:28 |
: I think Hamilton still wins that in the end.
|
| 12:28 |
Thoughts on Mitch Moreland in a ten-team roto league? |
| 12:28 |
: Still sell-high – there’s probably someone who’s overrating his breakout
|
| 12:28 |
It seems to me Theo and Jed have recognized a market inefficiency: the ability to get guys you can slide into the 4 and 5 spots in rotations cheap. Would you agree? Or is it more that the Cubs have the option to roll the dice on these sorts of guys because they haven’t been actively looking to compete the last 2 seasons? |
| 12:28 |
: I do agree at the value of league-average inning eaters at the back.
|
| 12:29 |
: It was a reason that I picked the Cubs for the over in my prop bets column
|
| 12:29 |
Do you have any suggestions for encouraging trades? Our league’s had only two all year. |
| 12:29 |
: It can be hard to shift league culture.
|
| 12:29 |
What kind of projection would Kyle Blanks get as an Oriole DH? He’s a lumbering RH power hitter. Seems like a good fit for a win-win trade, if the O’s are willing to deal something of comparable value, right? Or maybe not, if Blanks’ wRC+ for ZiPS(R) is 103. Thoughts? |
| 12:30 |
: He’d be fun, but he’s had such an up-and-down career. Depends what the O’s have to give up
|
| 12:30 |
When Colorado calls up Oswalt, who losses a rotation spot. Is Nicasio’s spot safe?? |
| 12:30 |
: Nicasio just earned himself a repreive over the weekend.
|
| 12:31 |
Shields. Will he get more Run Support ROS? All his losses have been by 1 run. |
| 12:31 |
: Well, he should get more than he has
|
| 12:31 |
With this shoulder surgery, is Jaime Garcia done as an effective starting pitcher? |
| 12:32 |
: I wouldn’t say that yet, but shoulder and pitcher is a scary thing to have in the same sentence.
|
| 12:32 |
: I wouldn’t even let a pitcher eat pork shoulder, just in case The Gods consider it hubris.
|
| 12:32 |
I’d presume Travis Wood’s value over Scott Feldman’s isn’t necessarily that Wood is a better pitcher, but instead that Feldman will be a free agent again next season and Wood hasn’t even hit arbitration yet? |
| 12:32 |
: Yeah, Wood has future value. ThougH Id o like Wood better.
|
| 12:32 |
Does ZIPS ROS incorporate current season performance (subject of course to regression, etc)? |
| 12:33 |
: Well, yeah. Else the ROS wouldn’t change!
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| 12:33 |
I’m sitting in first in ratio categories, but I’m behind my innings pace. Do I stream immediately, or wait until August and see what the standings dictate? There are so many x vs. Miami and x @ SD outings! |
| 12:33 |
: I’d try to up it a little. RIght now, you have control – if you’re far behind the IP, your moves will be based in desperation if it’s September
|
| 12:33 |
Is the starting pitching for the Indians anywhere near this good or is the team going to fall hard when McAllister, Jimminez, and Masterson come crashing back to Earth? |
| 12:34 |
: I’m a McAllister skeptic, but Masterson and Ubaldo have always had reasonable upside.
|
| 12:34 |
Who is called up first, Gerrit Cole or Gausman? and who do you like better long term? |
| 12:35 |
: I think Gausman’s going to get called up first. The O’s keep palying down his chances, but the hints about him skipping AAA suggest that it could happen
|
| 12:35 |
: I’m probably talking a little bit about Gausman in my ESPN piec e tomorrow
|
| 12:35 |
What’s more surprising Delmon Young looking like garbage in the outfield, or that he is not picking up garbage for some steel belt municipality? |
| 12:36 |
: Wouldn’t his assault charge hurts his chances at a government job?
|
| 12:36 |
very odd to ask this but if you want to win this year (and immediately again next) would you roster bundy or gausman. Bundy’s elbow really worries me. |
| 12:36 |
: Gausman. Any rumor of arm injury causes a downgrade.
|
| 12:37 |
: Tough, but pitchers are like teenagers in slasher movies.
|
| 12:37 |
How do you like Borderlands 2? Its an extremely enjoyable multiplayer with friends. |
| 12:37 |
: Fun game. Though for multiplayer, I’m still mostly on TF2
|
| 12:37 |
: Sadly, a poster here playing TF2 with me yesterday heard me use the word “applicationed”
|
| 12:38 |
: After midnight on allergy medicine, my grasp of the english language slips.
|
| 12:38 |
Does the ZIPs computer portend good things for Matt Cain’s home run rate? |
| 12:38 |
: ZiPS has him moving just a hair above his recent rates
|
| 12:38 |
Jason Bay just walked and stole a base. Feeling anxious about streaming Kazmir today… |
| 12:38 |
i’ll nerd this place right up. You in or out oN the Star Trek reboot. The newwest one brought me completely in! Baseball question…so is Jordan Zimmerman the best pitcher for the Naitonals the rest of the year? |
| 12:39 |
: Still think it’ll be Strasburg.
|
| 12:39 |
: I don’t really like reboots generally. I feel they work best when the original is out of stories to tell and the original really destroyed the brand.
|
| 12:40 |
: In this case, I think the universe they were in, there was still room for a lot of storeis
|
| 12:40 |
: and at this point, I don’t really care about new stories with kirk and spock
|
| 12:40 |
Think AJ Pierzynski or Yasmani Grandal is a better option than V-Mart at this point? How sad… |
| 12:41 |
: Both
|
| 12:41 |
What chances do you give Lewis Brinson to make it to the show with a 40% K rate in A ball? |
| 12:41 |
: It certainly reduces the odds of him blowing through the minors quickly
|
| 12:41 |
What should we expect from Zack Wheeler when he arrives? And will he be innings-capped out by September? |
| 12:41 |
: Still think he’s 100 ERA+ish this year.
|
| 12:41 |
: Though I thought that about Harvey!
|
| 12:41 |
Sell high on Patrick Corbin now or do you think he can keep it together a bit longer? |
| 12:42 |
: Always depends on what you can get.
|
| 12:42 |
Just traded Masterson and Henderson for Cole Hamels . … did I make a mistake? |
| 12:42 |
: I like Hamels better, but I would not have made that trade
|
| 12:42 |
: But again, I’ve generally been optimistic on Masterson
|
| 12:43 |
: So I might have some ocnfirmation bias
|
| 12:43 |
What do you think of Borderlands 2 thus far? I just started playing it recently as well. |
| 12:43 |
: Like. Fun art style.
|
| 12:43 |
Do you like Milone? Can he keep up the success with the velocity? |
| 12:44 |
: His control’s good enough and the park a good enough fit that he can
|
| 12:44 |
: ZiPS has been a fan of him for aquite awhile
|
| 12:44 |
If the O’s fall out of it and consider selling in the summer, how much could JJ Hardy bring back in return assuming he plays as expected until then. |
| 12:44 |
: His glove is excellent, but I can’t see the O’s getting a huge return
|
| 12:45 |
What does Heyward have to sacrifice to the BABIP gods to get some luck? He’s creaming the ball but getting nothing |
| 12:45 |
: Sacrifice goats to Wee Willie Keeler.
|
| 12:45 |
: It’s the only way to stop hitting ’em where they am.
|
| 12:45 |
Is there any reasonable basis to hope to see Hosmer become a top flight 1B, or was my faith in Keith Law, among others, misplaced? |
| 12:45 |
: I think so, but I’m also oen of the people that really really liked him
|
| 12:45 |
Danny Espinosa is known to be damaged and is the only regular with a sub .200 OBP! Rizzo gave him a vote of confidence over the weekend. Do you believe that or think we’ll see Rendon at 2b shortly? |
| 12:45 |
: Talking about this tomorrow.
|
| 12:46 |
some of my roto gurus are telling me to sell high on Josh Donaldson – how wrong am I to think he’s for real? |
| 12:46 |
: It’s been enough time that he’s improved, but you shooudln’ bank on all the improvement. If someone wants to, make ’em pay
|
| 12:46 |
Gregorius or Simmons? |
| 12:47 |
: Simmons real-life, Gregorius’s park probably gives im fantasy edge at this point
|
| 12:47 |
: Have to say I’m not displeased that ZiPS relatively optimistic projection for Gregorius hasn’t flopped. He was not a favorite of people in the offseason
|
| 12:48 |
: (ZiPS had him like 40 points of OPS above Steamer, 50 above OLIVER)
|
| 12:48 |
Jonny Venters 🙁 |
| 12:48 |
If Profar is a success, do the Rangers find a spot for him, Kinsler, and Andrus going forward? |
| 12:48 |
: I think the Rangers will need to trade Profar in the end.
|
| 12:48 |
Kris Medlan – what’s up |
| 12:48 |
: Nothing wrong with Medlen. Expectations were just out of whack and his run support has cuked.
|
| 12:48 |
: suckec
|
| 12:49 |
: sucked
|
| 12:49 |
what do you think is the most realistic scenario keeping Profar in TEX with consistent playing time for the ROS? |
| 12:50 |
: Some reshuffle involving Murphy. Hard to fit otherwise without new injuries once Kinsler returns.
|
| 12:50 |
: Of course, Murphy’s better in May
|
| 12:50 |
: But he’s still probably the most logical obstacle to all 3 getting playing time unless you’re supersubbing Profar
|
| 12:50 |
: and I’m not sure I want to use a guy who can handle SS as a supersub.
|
| 12:50 |
Re: Chapman, when you take into account they were homers by Kratz and Galvis, it HAS to be the bombs. |
| 12:50 |
I hate being carded so much. I basically have a policy of not returning to restaurants/bars that card me unless they’re really awesome. It’s just uncivilized to card people who are clearly older than 21. |
| 12:51 |
What cocktails were you going to make with the vermouth? |
| 12:51 |
: None. Was making vichyssoise
|
| 12:52 |
Would you swap Joey Votto for Paul Goldschmidt in a keeper league? |
| 12:52 |
: No
|
| 12:52 |
: Well, depends on if there are rules that make keeping Votto much harder for you
|
| 12:52 |
Why can’t Jordan Pacheco get playing time in Colorado? |
| 12:52 |
: His glove sucks at the position he would be needed at
|
| 12:52 |
Why do DRS and UZR vary so wildly? For example: the Giants are 4th in UZR despite -6 DRS. |
| 12:52 |
: I woudln’t get too excited about defensive stats early on
|
| 12:53 |
: I’d use a long-term regressed mix for defense.
|
| 12:53 |
: Yeah, you lose in-year evaluation, but I think short-term defensive evaluations are futile
|
| 12:53 |
: so you have to do it more on a probability basis
|
| 12:53 |
: It’s like 1-year park factors – there may be signal there, you’ll just never find it
|
| 12:54 |
Hello Dan, why do people say that Joey Votto is the best hitter in baseball when Miggy Cabrera clearly is? What are your thoughts on who is the best hitter? |
| 12:55 |
: It’s Cabrera
|
| 12:55 |
my step-child uses a fake id and she looks her age imo (17) – how young do you really look? |
| 12:55 |
: It depends.
|
| 12:55 |
: My hair is getting near a shortcut and I was completely clean-shaven, which tends to make me look younger.
|
| 12:55 |
Sorry, didn’t give my name on Votto/Cabrera question. |
| 12:56 |
: I don’t even look at the names, lest I end up favoring the regulars.
|
| 12:56 |
Doesn’t Fielder/Cabrera lineup dis-prove the FG lineup protection (or lack thereof) theory? |
| 12:56 |
: One example can’t prove or disprove anythign
|
| 12:56 |
Do you prefer Pence+Latos or Beltre? My current 3B is Moustakas |
| 12:57 |
: Hmm, I’d prefer the former because I love me some Latos and you don’t get Beltre’s D, but I’m getting a *little* concerned about moose tacos
|
| 12:57 |
When will ZIPS incorporate TWTW? Can TWTW be approximated by 1-R-squared in your forecasts? |
| 12:57 |
: Heh
|
| 12:57 |
: As someone over on southsidesox, Hawk’s needs TWTSTFU
|
| 12:57 |
are all the doomsayers wrong about me? |
| 12:57 |
: Partially
|
| 12:57 |
Drop Willingham for Teixeira? Both have wrist issues. Zips seems to like Willingham more. |
| 12:57 |
josh willingham is gonna bring his average up, right? |
| 12:58 |
: His BA will be up, though not to the level at which he’ll be a plus there
|
| 12:58 |
Every Indians everday batter currently has an ops higher than where ZiPS has them (except Asdrubal). Fluke? Coaching? Team’s history of cooling off? |
| 12:58 |
: All or none. The thing about small sample sizes is that it’s hard to reduce the season
|
| 12:58 |
Nicasio is better than he’s pitched….isn’t he? |
| 12:58 |
: I think so
|
| 12:58 |
What do you think of Lester going forward? ZiPS RoS ERA is 3.92 – that seems a bit high. |
| 12:58 |
: I’m more optimistic than ZiPS
|
| 12:59 |
whats your take on lucroys terrible start? |
| 12:59 |
: While you may not want chastity given quite yet, constancy and patience are important here
|
| 12:59 |
If you think Chris Davis will keep his gains in contact%, will you be adjusting his projections? |
| 12:59 |
: I won’t be adjusting anything
|
| 12:59 |
Is David Price’s horrible start explained by his injury, just a small sample or other? |
| 12:59 |
: I’m not panicking yet
|
| 1:00 |
Is Garcia definitely having surgery? |
| 1:00 |
: Nto definitely, but I think ti’s where it’s headed
|
| 1:00 |
: The last 2 months was the attempt to recover without major surgery
|
| 1:00 |
Is there any real info available for Erasmo Ramirez? I keep thinking TJ by July |
| 1:01 |
: He’s had the Mystery Triceps Injury That They Never Talk About since March
|
| 1:01 |
: I suspect that he got called up into an alien air force, Last Starfighter style.
|
| 1:01 |
Could Jurickson Profar stick after Kinsler returns? Maybe supplant Murphy? |
| 1:02 |
thoughts on Kazmir? Topping out at 90-91 early today? |
| 1:02 |
: I don’t know, the game’s on, but I’ve been focused on you guys
|
| 1:02 |
Do you think middlebrooks turns it around? |
| 1:02 |
: To a degree. He’s never going to be a scientific hitter and he was way overrated coming into the season
|
| 1:03 |
: I call this phenomenon Desmond Jennings Syndrome
|
| 1:03 |
: in which even very smart people, upon seeing a big breakout in part of a season from a very good prospect, overrate a player because the breakout tends to fit the narrative
|
| 1:04 |
Is Gausman an Oriole? They have a long recent tradition of failed pitching prospects. Why should we believe in this one more than the Ariettas or Matusz’s or Tillmans? |
| 1:04 |
: Well, technically he’s a Bay Sock, but he’ll be an Oriole soon
|
| 1:05 |
: Ever get your socks wet in the chesapeake? Bay Sox must smell awful.
|
| 1:05 |
Does Harold Reynolds only jump on the TWTW bandwagon because real statistics say he actually kind of sucked? Growing up I always thought he was a decent player…but I was also only 10. |
| 1:05 |
: Well, he’s always been on that bandwagon
|
| 1:06 |
What are the ZiPS projections on the yucca harvest this season? |
| 1:06 |
: Cloudy with a chance of cassava
|
| 1:06 |
: Mildly pessimistic – I’m no cassavanova.
|
| 1:06 |
I remember back when Star Trek was Star Trek. The new movies are the same. |
| 1:06 |
Why isn’t Cole Hamels good anymore? |
| 1:06 |
: It’s been 6 wekes
|
| 1:06 |
Is there evidence that closers perform worse in non-save situations? |
| 1:07 |
: I haven’t found it. If someone else has, it’s missed my radar
|
| 1:07 |
Orioles a good fit for Peavy? Might be the best you can do without giving up Gausman/Bundy. Or will the trade market be such that the O’s could NOT get Peavy without Gasuman/Bundy? |
| 1:07 |
: I thoink they’ll get him without. Real A prospects for a rental are increasingly rare
|
| 1:07 |
Profar + j. zimm is too much for Heyward right. Especially with his start? |
| 1:07 |
: Yes
|
| 1:08 |
i know its hard to project but what kind of numbers you think pineda puts up this year? |
| 1:08 |
: I woudln’t expect much
|
| 1:08 |
Is Josh Hamilton a write off or is there any reason to have a little optimism? |
| 1:08 |
: well, he’s better than he is. He’s almost certainly had the worst part of his season
|
| 1:08 |
Cloyd worth a spot start vs. Miami tomorrow? |
| 1:08 |
: Anyone against Miami
|
| 1:08 |
Is Morrow worthless, should I drop him or is there any chance he will be worth anything at some point? |
| 1:08 |
: I’d hang onto him
|
| 1:08 |
are you ever going to answer my question? Who wins? Profar for heath bell? |
| 1:09 |
: Bell only in a redraft
|
| 1:09 |
: I get a ton of questions. I can’t answer them all.
|
| 1:09 |
: I’d have to double my answering speed just to answer 15% of them
|
| 1:10 |
Do you think Goldschmidt will outperform ZiPS ROS? |
| 1:10 |
: Better than 353/496? No.
|
| 1:10 |
Isn’t any return for Hardy dependent, at least partly, on how well Kozma plays? |
| 1:10 |
: Strangely, the Cardinals evaluation of their SS situation seems very independent of how Kozma actually plays
|
| 1:11 |
Who would you rather have: matt Adams or Jesus Montero? |
| 1:11 |
: Adams in real life, Montero in fantasy
|
| 1:11 |
what to expect from Profar in this stint? Not much? Or does he light things on fire? |
| 1:11 |
: Between those two!
|
| 1:11 |
“not displeased….hasn’t flopped” Holy triple negative, Batman! |
| 1:11 |
Profar or Andrus as the starting SS in pinstripes next year? normally Asdrubal would be in convo but for some reason they are winning. |
| 1:12 |
: I don’t want to think abotu Profar in pinstripes! Unless the O’s change their uniform
|
| 1:12 |
Are you doing this chat on a cell phone? Seems like it with the typos. |
| 1:12 |
: No, I’m just typing very, very fast
|
| 1:12 |
: I lose 95% accuracy when I go over 100-110 wpm
|
| 1:12 |
Is Dave Cameron upset about how well Miggy is doing? |
| 1:12 |
: No.
|
| 1:12 |
Do you think the Orioles will continue their recent spate of aggressive promotions with Nick Delmonico if he continues his success? |
| 1:13 |
Uh-oh here come Lackey! His command is sharper but as an older pitcher coming back from TJ, will his stamina dissipate post ASB? |
| 1:13 |
: They’ll certainly not run him into the ground
|
| 1:13 |
: and they haven’t eyt
|
| 1:14 |
RE: But Medlans usual control isn’t there currently and right now he’s not even a good pitcher. What should realistic expectations be? |
| 1:14 |
: You can’t assume 1.5 BB/9 is his usual control
|
| 1:14 |
Would you rather be the GM that trades Profar or have to work for Loria? |
| 1:14 |
: Profar. I’d get something in return.
|
| 1:14 |
Gausman and Schoop at 2nd wouldn’t be enough of a mid season boost to bring the O’s to contention, would it? |
| 1:15 |
: It’s not like they’re out of contention. But it wouldn’t hurt
|
| 1:15 |
What do you make of the people who don’t post their questions in the CIL applet and instead leave them in the comments section as if this were a traditional FG post? |
| 1:15 |
: It’s kind of strange. They are different formats.
|
| 1:15 |
: It’s like returning an email with a telegram!
|
| 1:15 |
re: Profar; so you really think he’ll have to be moved? Does he not have enough value at 2B for Tex? (In the idea that they can force Kinsler to 1B) or is that just not maximizing value? Seems crazy to trade Profar given the hype. And, would it basically have to be for Price/Stanton or Tavares? I mean, does anything else really make sense? |
| 1:15 |
: It’s just that it is an inefficient use of resources.
|
| 1:16 |
: If you’re not going to use Profar’s ability to play short or Kinsler’s ability to play second, if the price is right, you should let someone else pay you for those things.
|
| 1:17 |
: It’s like having a lamborghini that you drive and a lamborghini you use to store canned goods. Sell the second lamborghini to someone who wants to drive it and use the return on something you’ll use optimally.
|
| 1:17 |
Haven’t seen much analysis on V-Mart…did he just lose all his skills in a 1 year layoff? Not like he’s being physically taxed crouching behind the plate all day…why isn’t he hitting and do you expect him to start? |
| 1:17 |
: Dunno. Just doesn’t look like he has anything in him when he tries to drive the ball
|
| 1:18 |
: It wasn’t just a layoff, it was a torn ACL
|
| 1:18 |
: Legs are important for a hitter.
|
| 1:18 |
: I’d be more optimistic if he simply took a year off to sunbathe and drink pina coladas
|
| 1:19 |
Any idea where Yahoo gets the projected stats they use in their fantasy baseball tool? |
| 1:19 |
: I assume internal
|
| 1:19 |
Do you think a risk-averse strategy involving taking position players early in the draft over pitchers and taking lots of arms later is something more teams should consider? |
| 1:19 |
: I’m risk-averse early in drafts in general
|
| 1:19 |
: Why roll the dice with my best shot? Let someone else gamble.
|
| 1:20 |
Would ZIPS be able to accurately identify a pitchers’ park switch? Say, a flyball guy moving from CIN to OAK, where fly balls go to die… Is there more than just looking at basic park factors? In reverse, seems like Weaver would have trouble moving to CIN, etc… |
| 1:20 |
: Season-to-season moreso
|
| 1:20 |
: In-season is simplified so that it can be updated daily
|
| 1:21 |
: Let’s put it this way: A player projection takes 20 seconds on an i7-3930k processor.
|
| 1:21 |
: (in regular ol’ ZiPS)
|
| 1:21 |
When does Kyle Gibson get the call for the Twins? |
| 1:22 |
: The sooner the better.
|
| 1:22 |
Have Profar or Odorizzi MiLB changed anything significantly from preseason forecast? |
| 1:22 |
: Don’t believe so
|
| 1:22 |
Who needs a SS with a brilliant glove the most? Does Brendan Ryan have any trade value, or will the .205OBP put people off the scent? |
| 1:22 |
: People will take a bad-hitting great-glove SS, but there’s still a downward limit to that.
|
| 1:23 |
Similar to Slappy’s question, is there anything on the Hultzen front? |
| 1:23 |
: I believe he’s still shut down with his rotator cuff pain
|
| 1:23 |
: The M’s are keeping injury news to themselves.
|
| 1:23 |
I understand that one example can’t prove/dis-prove. But A. Cabrera/Fielder is about the best example out there. And B. I’d bet there are others. Any comment other than the company line about lineup protection? |
| 1:24 |
: A great example is still just an anecdote.
|
| 1:24 |
: It’s just a convenient anecdote.
|
| 1:24 |
If you had to have a medical procedure named after you for all time (ala Tommy John), what would it be? |
| 1:24 |
: Penile enhancement.
|
| 1:26 |
Summer is awesome. What is your projections ROS? |
| 1:26 |
: ZiPS projects a 23° 26′ axial tilt.
|
| 1:26 |
The mets have nothing to play for this year. Wouldn’t it then be more important to them to keep giving everyday at bats to ike davis and juan lagares, for example, against big league caliber pitching? Starting Rick Ankiel and talks of demoting Ike go against the plan |
| 1:26 |
: It would be.
|
| 1:26 |
How many people in the chat Dan. You’ve answered about 5 or 6 of mine. Don’t start looking at the names now!!! |
| 1:27 |
: RIght now, 550. Chats tend to vary between 400-800 at any given moment.
|
| 1:27 |
wow a live chat from monrovia. I never get internet, biggest variation in performance from zips so far? |
| 1:27 |
: Probably Hamilton
|
| 1:27 |
Peavy isn’t a rental. He has another (affordable) year on his contract. |
| 1:28 |
: Year and a half is still a rental. If I’m giving up a top, top prime prospect, I want more than that
|
| 1:28 |
Mets are talking about calling up Wheeler in 2-3 weeks. Is this too soon? |
| 1:28 |
: No.
|
| 1:29 |
: OK, declaration of Lightning Round
|
| 1:29 |
: I’ll answer pretty much any question until I reach the end of my queue on any subject, so long as it can be answered quickly
|
| 1:29 |
If you could have any super power, which would it be? |
| 1:29 |
: The power to make anybody STFU
|
| 1:29 |
: and make it retroactive
|
| 1:30 |
How relevant is Freddie Galvis in an NL only 12 2014 league? |
| 1:30 |
: Still better in real life
|
| 1:30 |
Does Schoop make the starting squad at Camden this year? More likely he is at 2nd or he is traded this year? |
| 1:31 |
: Assuming his back is OK, I think he gets a peek in steptember. Didn’t have a great start
|
| 1:31 |
: and that assume his back issues don’t continue
|
| 1:31 |
: And then we can cue the mispronunciation of his name!
|
| 1:32 |
: If broadcasters still think there’s a player named “Annabelle Sanchez” he may end up with his name rhyming with poop isntead of pope for years
|
| 1:32 |
People who whine about you not answering their questions ROS? (Comeon guys-class it up!) |
| 1:32 |
Balfour, Joey Bats . . . Who’s the angriest man in MLB? |
| 1:32 |
: Nolasco
|
| 1:33 |
: I’ve heard from multiple people close to the situation that he’s even more frustrated than you see from the media reports
|
| 1:33 |
Any SP have a sub-2.00 ERA by end of season? |
| 1:33 |
: No
|
| 1:33 |
Does Daniel Hudson get his rotation spot back? Who loses out? |
| 1:33 |
: He’s not getting it on a silver platter – he’s going to have to show he has something left to get into the mix again
|
| 1:33 |
By the end of the year, is Gyorko a top 10 fantasy 2B? |
| 1:34 |
: That may be touhg. He does things that fantasy doesn’t really capture and fantasy doesn’t care about his park.
|
| 1:34 |
: He is, of course, my archnemesis.
|
| 1:34 |
Who’s first 6 week faceplant surpised you the most/ |
| 1:34 |
: Hamilton just due to degree.
|
| 1:34 |
: Being hacktastic never hurt him before!
|
| 1:34 |
:
|
| 1:35 |
:
|
| 1:35 |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESFtlpmPxT4 buxton walkoff granny |
| 1:35 |
Can we do a music trivia chat again? |
| 1:35 |
: At some point.
|
| 1:35 |
Nickname for hire: The Seal Pup. Who gets it? |
| 1:35 |
: We’l leave people to ponder that one
|
| 1:36 |
THAT JUST FREAKED ME OUT |
| 1:36 |
: When I had laryngitis, I got a thrill out of being able to do a horrific russian accent in a very low voice
|
| 1:36 |
: and Gyorko sounds like somebody in a spy film.
|
| 1:36 |
: On that note, time to end the chat for the week!
|
| 1:36 |
: Thanks for joining me everybody, hope to see you all next week.
|
| 1:37 |
: As my usual reminder, you can find most of my writing on ESPN.com, chats and projections and fangraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, Steam and pretty much everywhere else because using my real name is the best way to ensure one behaes.
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
You’re Texas. Assuming you would keep Kinsler, Andrus and Profar, where do you play them? and when do you launch David Murphy into the Sun? Thanks,