Dan Szymborski Fangraphs Chat – 6/10/21
11:59 |
: dangit
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12:00 |
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12:00 |
: There we go, third time’s the charm!
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12:00 |
: Has Kris Bryant played himself back into $200M+ on the open market?
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12:00 |
: Doing a piece on the Cubs Big Three FA for tomorrow!
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12:01 |
: How are you (and zips) feeling about Jared Walsh? Is the sample size and eye test large enough to say “all-star first basemen for many years for the angels?”
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12:01 |
: ZiPS is *almost* there, but not quite. the ROS wRC+ projection is up to 126 (preseason 103!). Gains tend to be a little stickier in season.
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12:02 |
: But I think he’s bent the curve enough that he’s probably an above-average 1B in his prime years
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12:02 |
: The power improvement certainly plays
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12:03 |
: Hudson Head has been off to a slow start at the plate, but is taking a lot of walks and getting on base. What do you view him long term for the Pirates?
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12:04 |
: Still a bit early for me, but feels a bit Rich Beckery to me maybe? That’s not necessarily a bad thing
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12:05 |
: Kyle Tucker’s Baseball Savant page shows him having an MVP level season brought down by bad luck. Is that a realistic picture of his potential?
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12:05 |
: Luck is such a word fraught with hidden terrors!
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12:06 |
: Let’s just say that there’s evidence that he’s a secret superstar having a regular star season
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12:07 |
: He’s a superstar in a superstar machine, taking it to the staaaaaars. Emotion lotion!
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12:07 |
:
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12:07 |
: Dan, a recent Defector article laments lightning’s (yes, the actual natural thing) slow descent from Ace pitcher to ‘back end of career innings eater’. Even with this knowledge of its diminished capabilities, where does lightning rank in your “please keep this natural occurance far away from me” list?
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12:07 |
: Wait, what?
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12:08 |
: I dunno, I still wouldn’t want to be hit by lightning
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12:09 |
: But I guess a combination of people working outside less, increased awareness of lightning safety, and better medical triage to deal with people hit by lightning would all servce to diminish it as a thread somewhat?
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12:09 |
: Andujar looks to be back to pulling the ball. If he regains 70% of his 2018, is he a lock to play nearly every day with the Yankees?
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12:09 |
: Meh-minus
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12:10 |
: He’s only really interesting at 100% of his 2018
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12:10 |
: and even then he’ll be overrated
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12:10 |
: The lack of a position obviously hurts
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12:11 |
: Has Zips ever used spider tack?
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12:12 |
: THATS A COMPLICATED QUESTION AND I DO NOT KNOW WHY YOU’RE ASKING SOME THINGS HAPPEN AT TIMES BUT I DO NOT KNOW AND I HATE TO SPECULATE ON THINGS I DID NOT OR DID NOT DO HOW AM I TO KNOW TRULY WHETHER I DID SOMETHING OR NOT IN THE METAPHYSICAL SENSE, I AM OFFENDED YOU WOULD EVEN ASK
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12:12 |
: I’ve seen a few things out there that the asking price for Adam Frazier is high, which it should be. What is high? You think the pirates could get a say, top 5-10 prospect? Or is that to high? Also what is the likelihood Bryan Reynolds is traded?
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12:13 |
: If you mean around *baseball* I don’t think so. On a farm system, I could definitely see an average farm system team’s #5 prospect going to Pittsburgh.
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12:14 |
How does a guy strike out more people but walk mostly the same amount and ALSO become more hittable? That doesn’t seem to track for me and frustrates me to no end watching him. |
12:14 |
: More grounders does tend to result in a higher BABIP and more hits
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12:14 |
: Though I think there’s a lot of noise involved in the stats still
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12:15 |
: Give me some Bobby Witt Jr hype! I need to know what the computer overlords think
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12:15 |
: That he’s htiting well in Double-A is a pretty big deal
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12:15 |
: Rank the types of cheating in order of actual impact on a baseball game: sticky stuff, steroids/PEDs, sign stealing
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12:15 |
: 1, 3, 2
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12:15 |
: Though you can define impact a number of ways
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12:16 |
: altering baseballs is obviously number – the effect is direct
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12:17 |
: and I’m still completely unconvinced, from the data that PED/steroids isn’t a *safety* issue rather than a performance once
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12:17 |
: I’ve spent a decade looking at groups of players found positive vs. the rest and there’s *zero* unusual aging patterns in projections either before or after, as you would expect with a significant issue
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12:18 |
: no matter the angle, no matter how I use a dummy variable, I can’t *ever* get it not rejected in any method of dimensionality reduction
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12:19 |
: Have you read Thinking, Fast and Slow? Law said it’s been required reading in all of MLB front offices. Im three chapters in and I can see why. Follow up question, should Thinking, Fast and Slow replace the Bible?
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12:19 |
: I am familiar with it, but I have not personally read it
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12:19 |
: It would certainly seem to be more useful to a front office than the bible
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12:21 |
: Is Ke’Bryan Hayes already a top 3 third baseman in baseball?
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12:21 |
: Too long a bridge for me. I think he’s top 10.
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12:21 |
: But the competition is steep there
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12:22 |
: Ramirez, Chapman, Bregman, Rendon, Machado, Moncada. OK, now eliminatee *four*
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12:22 |
: Taylor walls is great and I don’t ever remember any other Tampa Bay SS prospects any more
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12:23 |
: Do Hosmer’s intangibles and/or maybe the actual bump he’d get from being DH give him any trade value or are the Padres 100% stuck with him?
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12:23 |
: He still has negative trade value.
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12:25 |
: He’s basically back to being slow Willie Mays Hayes.
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12:26 |
: Zips had me at 1.2 WAR for season which I’ve already equaled. FG projects me to finish with 2.5. Let’s say I finish with 2 WAR.
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12:26 |
: He’s been very solid!
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12:26 |
: If your Seattle do you go hard for Corey Seager this winter? Have the brother connection of course, and are an emerging team, but they look to be extremely stacked in the OF going forward with very little actual promise for the infield in the system & on the roster. Star young outfielders + Corey Seager would make a lot of noise in a seemingly weak AL West for next few years
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12:27 |
: I ahdn’t really thought about it, but I actually like it.
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12:27 |
: a Seager/Crawford middle infield could be fun
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12:28 |
: What on earth happened to DJLM?
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12:29 |
: It’s not like he’s been AWFUL, but he has been disappointing
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12:29 |
: Some significant regrerssion was probably inevitable
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12:29 |
: He’s not young
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12:30 |
: The ball change is probably not helping him as he wasn’t a Stanton pitch crusher dude
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12:30 |
: and he’s underperforming where his BABIP should be a bit
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12:30 |
: Last I checked (last week) ZiPS thought he should have about 25 more points of BABIP and about 40 more points of ISO from his stats
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12:31 |
: That would put him what, somewhere around 270/360/400? That’s not horribly below his preaseason projs
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12:31 |
: What hitters or type of hitter (if any) do you think will benefit the most from the new “sticky stuff” enforcement?
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12:32 |
: I would think some of the more aggressive swingers
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12:32 |
: but given MLB’s history of blustering and nothing happening, I’m wait-and-see if naything really changes
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12:32 |
: Chili sans beans chat greetings Dan. Will you be updating the Zips 100 Prospect List come mid season? Interested to see how much Vidal Brujan and Jarren Durran have moved up the rankings.
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12:32 |
: Yup
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12:32 |
1.) The country of Chile 2.) The restraunt Chili’s 3.) The means of describing temperature as Chilly 4.) The food dish Chili |
12:33 |
: 4, 3, 1, 2
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12:33 |
: Does FG have data that shows players batting stats when defenses shift versus no shift?
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12:33 |
: You can see it in the splits tool!
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12:33 |
: Hey Dan – After your piece on the twins last week, they look like they are clearly going to sell. What do you think the return on Berrios would be? What if Buxton comes back and returns to the level he was at before, how does that change the market??
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12:33 |
: I think they’ll get quite a bit for both
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12:34 |
: Though neither have enough time left that they would be franchise-altering hauls
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12:34 |
: Who would you rather have the rest of the season: Judge or Trea?
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12:34 |
: Depends what I need!
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12:34 |
: But very generically, I’m gonna go with teh shrotstop
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12:34 |
: Think Dylan Bundy’s gonna turn it around? Or is his velocity just not enough to keep up with today’s game?
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12:35 |
: I ceratinly hope so. ZiPS sees him as a significant underperformer based on periphs
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12:35 |
: Are the Angels sellers this year? They seem to be improving, but it’s not like they’re gaining a ton of ground in the division…
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12:35 |
: They’re sit-around-and-wait-fruitlesslyers
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12:35 | : Ha. Here: |
12:35 | : So Dan’s chat probably knows that Macho Man Randy Savage was a minor leaguer. But what’s much more amazing is that he was billed at 6’1″, 195 pounds. That’s only 10 pounds more than not-large-man Brandon Lowe, who’s 5’10”. |
12:36 |
: Hey Dan – serious question, lots of folks are commenting on Robbie Ray’s tight fitting uniform. Do you think this is helping with his mechanics? Helping with command and control?
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12:37 |
: I don’t even know how to approach that!
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12:37 |
: Maybe if he were particularly uncomfortable in a tight fitting uni
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12:37 |
: errr loose
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12:37 |
: Right now, I see it more as a meme than something
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12:37 |
: I wonder if there’s an objective way to measure uniform fittage
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12:38 |
: how good would Mr Burns baseball team have been?
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12:38 |
: Not very, his right fielder has been dead for 160 years!
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12:39 |
: What does a realistic return for Scherzer look like? Could he still pull multiple top-100 prospects? Is anyone willing to give up enough to make Rizzo REALLY think about it?
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12:39 |
: I think that’s tough
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12:39 |
: teams will pay a lot, but he’s also a rental
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12:41 |
: Teams just aren’t giving many huge packages for *any* two month superstar anymore
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12:42 |
: They want the two month and then the final year kicker
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12:42 |
: Am I crazy to not care literally at all about the sticky “cheating” scandal? Seems like if A. everybody in baseball is doing it and B. everybody in baseball knows about it then we shouldn’t be making a big deal about it.
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12:42 |
: I think the issue is enforcement is kind of arbitrary
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12:42 |
: Brendan Rodgers. Is the “breakout” coming?
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12:42 |
: I still think so, but I think odds improve in a new organization.
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12:43 |
: The Rockies are a giant dumpster full of smaller dumpsters on fire that are full of individual tire fires, and that whole giant dumpster is also on fire
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12:43 |
: did alonso’s opinion on free agent class and type of ball in use seem overly conspiratorial to you?
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12:43 |
: Yes
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12:44 |
: I don’t think baseball’s that competent enough to think of such a conspiracy, figure out how to make it work, pull the trigger, and successfully implement it *and* cover it up
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12:44 |
: Is there any inkling yet on how many RPMs is a statistically significant enough loss to actually either deduce a pitcher was using something beyond the rosin/pine tar/sunscreen mix or impact their performance?
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12:44 |
: I think you need to have more data on guys actually *caught*
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12:45 |
: Dan.. Please tell us the exact date and time Wander Franco is called up. Thank You
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12:45 |
: 21st century, between the vernal equinox and the autumnal equinox
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12:45 |
: Another fascinating splitter is Chapman’s… Dude threw one this weekend that (by my observation) danced like a knuck and was clocked at a downright unfair 89 mph (think the spin rate was something like 650, too. Checked out Chapman’s observed movement chart on savant, and sure enough, his splitter has registered movement in like 75-80% of the possible directions a ball can move. Did he somehow unlock another God-mode pitch?
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12:46 |
: His splitter has always been amazing. He’s an artist with it
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12:47 |
: Is the Jake Bauers trade the beginning of Cleveland throwing in the towel?
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12:47 |
: At this point, one could argue that *acquiring and playing* Jake Bauers is throwing in the towel
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12:49 |
: Is this counterprogramming to the Twitch stream?
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12:49 |
: Oh shoot, I probably should have run this at a different time
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12:50 |
: What do you think of the theory that for early romantic composers the metronome markings were doubled, and that to play them properly, the tempi need to be halved? Obviously it makes no sense for Beethoven (nobody was ever performing a 2.5 hour Ninth), but for other things like the chopin etudes or anything by alkan, it seems to make a lot of sense.
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12:50 |
: I don’t buy it.
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12:50 |
: The thing is, there’s a performing tradition that’s handed down, composer/conductor to other composer/conductors
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12:53 |
: conductors like Walter or Pfitzner would have had ample experience working with and hearing people that were students of early romantics
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12:55 |
: Carl Reinecke was a student of Mendelssohn and was teaching into the 20th century. If the Saltarello of Mendelssohn’s 4th was supposed to be a gentle stroll, we’d know, I think
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12:56 |
: We have a *lot* of recordings of Liszt’s students
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12:57 |
: I’m glad to see that your post’s subtitle finally accurately reflects what this chat is about.
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12:57 |
: I answer a billion questsion and we go off-topic a lot
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12:57 |
: We’ve been doing this for a decade!
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12:57 |
: At this point, it’s a bit like complaining about ref bumps in wrestling
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12:57 |
: Padres go all in with a trade for Buxton + Berrios.. slide Grisham to RF. Whats the cost though?
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12:58 |
: The team DOES like to think big
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12:58 |
: and the fact that they’d have ’em for 2022 is a big deal
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12:58 |
: In your definition of chili, are you pepper discriminant? Meaning, do you only accept peppers of a savory flavor profile, or are you open to all entries?
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12:58 |
: I’m opn to peppers
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12:58 |
: Myself , Emeril and Martha all use beans in our award winning chili recipes. BOOM goes the ladle……
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12:58 |
: Good for them.
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12:59 |
: A good meal doesn’t necessarily have to be 100% in the category it’s described as
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12:59 |
: I’ve had a lot of delicious bean-and-chili stews
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1:00 |
: How do you decide to answer the questions in the queue? I’ve shot over some great, pressing ones and they’ve fallen on deaf ears.
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1:00 |
: They scroll pretty quickly
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1:00 |
: I try to do a variety
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1:00 |
: and questions that I can actually answer within the timeframe
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1:01 |
: Questions that require a lot of deliberation aren’t great in this format.
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1:01 |
: And I also tend to shy away from questions about very specific fantasy questions that are only really relevant to the person asking them
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1:01 |
: hey there. do you cover sports other than baseball?
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1:01 |
: I have not
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1:01 |
: I’ve covered esports for ESPN though
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1:01 |
: I do miss writing about Hearthstone and Overwatch!
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1:02 |
: You’re taking a 2 hour road trip…what 3 podcasts are you listening to along the way?
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1:04 |
: I don’t usually listen to baseball podcasts on road trips
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1:04 |
: because then I want to dive in an argue something
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1:04 |
: and I can’t do that in a care
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1:04 |
: I guess in car I’ve listend to the most How Did This Get Made?, Axe of the Blood God, and the Greatest Generation
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1:05 |
: Assume that deGrom wins his third Cy this season with an amazing but not greatest ever type season (think 1.6 ERA). How much more would he have to do going forward to get your HOF vote?
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1:05 |
: I think he’s already got mine on peak.
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1:06 |
: What’s your opinion on positional adjustment? Fangraphs hasn’t updated the positional adjustment numbers in over a decade and from what I’ve read from Tom Tango and even the Fangraphs article about positional adjustment, this numbers might be outdated based on how the game has changed and the increase in shifts. Is it time for an update?
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1:06 |
: I tend to think that positional adjustment should be continually recalculated based on the last 15 years or so
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1:06 |
: I have a disagreement with DH adjustment
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1:06 |
: What’s the most surprising projection you’ve seen from ZiPS since it was created?
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1:06 |
: Shane Bieber, 2019
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1:06 |
: not counting ones that are obvious mistakes
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1:07 |
: like Jose Molina coming out with a .900 SLG that was caused by me accidentally hitting a stray key
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1:07 |
: Oh man, based on the Scherzer question earlier, could this be the most muted trade deadline ever, outside of rental? Owners not wanting to commit to multi-year contracts without knowing where the CBA is going and such.
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1:08 |
: I think this is going to be a dull deadline
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1:08 |
: Have you ever gotten a major bag alert from Wendy’s? If so was it a good or bad experience…and should we who haven’t, want one or not?
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1:08 |
: Wait, what?
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1:08 |
: Believe it or not, I eat very little fast food
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1:09 |
: That’s right, I actually have to eat half-sensibly to maintain THIS figure
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1:09 |
: Do stats based predictors take into account the concentration of positive events. i.e. are homeruns in blow out games weighed less than others.
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1:09 |
: I haven’t found much value in these
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1:09 |
: My earlier comment was not a complaint. Yours is my favorite chat.
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1:09 |
: Someone was very grumpy last week!
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1:09 |
: Why can batters use grip improving goo, but pitchers can’t?
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1:10 |
: their grippy stuff doesn’t modify the ball itself
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1:10 |
: Big question, what are the cats up to?
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1:11 |
: Mercutio and Cassiopeia were asleep upstairs last I saw
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1:11 |
: the catlets are watching cicadas dive bomb the windows
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1:11 |
: If you accept sweet peppers as an ingredient in chili, are you open to the idea of sweet-ish herbs and spices? Such as basil, sumac, saffron, sugar, et al?
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1:11 |
: Sugar not so much
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1:12 |
: Which current player do you think would be most likely to whittle their own bat out of a tree that was struck by lightning like Homer did?
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1:12 |
: Cespedes
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1:12 |
: What’s your favorite baseball movie and what’s the best baseball movie and why is Major League both?
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1:12 |
: For me it’s the sandlot
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1:13 |
: Why is spin measured in RPM when a pitch is only a second or two? Wouldn’t it be better to do revolutions per second.
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1:13 |
: same reason we use miles per hour
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1:13 |
: it’s a familiar context
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1:14 |
: Major League …. did not age well. It is bad. Extremely bad.
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1:14 |
: I will disagree with that.
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1:14 |
: But I figured I’d end this before a hundred people dogpile!
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1:14 |
: Thanks for coming all, I’ll see ya next time!
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
RE “It would be more useful to a front office than a bible.”- Are you trying to tell me Jesus Christ couldn’t hit a curveball?
RE: Major League -Still holds up
Yep, so many sports movies have come and gone and Major League is still standing with the best of em