Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/11/18

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go!

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I had been on the phone and then I had to go to the bathroom.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t want to chat from the bathroom, lest someone figure it out somehow and then giving everyone an unpleasant vision.

Preller: What is the prospect i should be targeting when trading Tyson ross

Dan Szymborski: A good one?  I think it depends on the team really.  The fact that he’s a free agent is going to keep the price down, I think I’d gear more towards a number of interesting lottery tickets than trying to get one specific guy.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget, it was obvious to trade him in 2015 and htey didn’t.

Devil Ray J. Johnson: Do you have a business card that reads “Owner-Operator of the ZiPS Projection System”?

Dan Szymborski: It just says writer.  You shouldn’t have to explain your business card!

Cole Blaque: What is the ZiPS for new (old) Jose Manuel Fernandez?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have his MLE handy right now.  But ZIPS has been generally optimistic with him.

Josh Nelson: Why is Manny Machado still with Baltimore?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been hearing a lot of insider buzz for awhile that the packages aren’t up to what they were hoping for so far.

Dan Szymborski: I believe the O’s set their targets too high.  Machado is amazing, but you’re only getting two months of Machado.  And for a team to get`a lot for a two-month player, no matter how awesome, you have to have a very specific set of needs.

Dan Szymborski: Someone like Chris Sale, traded wiht a few years left on his deal, is going to have a lot more value *and* a wider variety of teams with a specific need.

Dan Szymborski: Everyone can use a pitcher, but Machado, with only a two-month window, would need teams with a very specific short-term 3B/SS need.

Xolo: Is ZiPS buying Renfroe’s newfound plate discipline?

Dan Szymborski: You’ll see it more in full season-to-season ZiPS rather than in-season.  I keep the in-season model simpler so that it can practically be run.

Dan Szymborski: Because it needs to be run in the morning.

Dan Szymborski: I’m good with numbers, I’m terrific with probability, and I’m now one of the most experienced in sabermetrics still active today.  But what I am *not* is a programmer.  I just took my required compsci in college, got my B, and didn’t pay too much attention to the C++ we did.  Because it was a 9 AM class and I’m not good at caring stuff before noon!

Dan Szymborski: So ZiPS, like PECOTA before they did it, is overengineered, so hard to run the full set every morning.

CamdenWarehouse: I’m only going to get a burger at IHOP if the patty comes between two pancakes

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know WTF IHOP is doing.

Dan Szymborski: You have such a good brand that has near-universal consumer knowledge.  People actually pronounce your acronym!  And then to muddy it up?  For fast-casual burgers?  Are you frigging kidding me?  You’re going to move out of your highly successful niche to chase BURGERS?  What’s the audience for the burgers/  I don’t see them shifting the Five Guys/Smashburger/In-N-Out guys over.

Kiermaier’s Diverticulitis: Hi Dan.  I have no animadversions for this chat. I do have animadversions about Dallas Keuchel and IHob. 2 questions. Is it pathetic an american league pitcher can’t run from 3rd to homepltae without going on the DL? #getinplayingshape. Q2. If you take the makings of a sub sandwich and put it in a tortilla..do you have a submarine sandwich or a burrito?         Foodies Unite!

Dan Szymborski: YOu get the Institute for Justice weekly court decision ru ndown too?

Dan Szymborski: There’s where I learned the word.

Dan Szymborski: 1.  I think MLBers should all be in better shape than me, except for the Bartolo Colon waiver.

Dan Szymborski: Depends how you’re using the burrito.  I’m an ingredient rebel, structural purist.

Dan Szymborski:

All Cats Are Beautiful : How long is the Red Sox window of contention? One more year after 2018? Two more years?  The cupboards are bare and the cheap young guys are getting expensive.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re well enough set that they can keep things churning for awhile.  As long as your team will invest *and* you’re drafting and developing players well, once you *are* good, you can maintain for a long time.

Lunch Angle: Eduardo Escobar has been hitting the tar out of the ball. What do you expect from him going forward?

Dan Szymborski: I think that a lot of his play is for real, though I think we’re seeing a career season.  But I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a real 110 OPS+ guy now.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe even better for ahwile.

Devil Ray J. Johnson: Kelvin Herrera has issued no BB this year in 24.2 IP.  If he keeps that up, how quickly will we see a notable drop in his ROS ZiPS BB/9 projection (which is currently 2.47 against a 2.58 career BB/9)?

Dan Szymborski: I’m s urprised it hasn’t dropped farther.

Dan Szymborski: I think full year-to-year ZiPS will capture it better.

Steve: What’s wrong with Gary Sanchez?  Underlying stats seem normal for him, is this all a babip thing?  I saw somewhere that he has a <.100 babip on grounders…

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, a <.200 BABIP is never real for any minimally competent hitter.

Dan Szymborski: Put it this way:  Pitchers, as a group, have been at a .215-.225 BABIP historically.  And that’s *with* a lot of bunting.

Dan Szymborski: There’s no way a guy like Gary Sanchez is worse at hitting hard-to-field-or-maybe-get-to balls than your average pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: If you hold on a second, I’ll quickly run some of Sanchez’s hit-data to see what ZiPS thinks his BABIP should be (full ZiPS, not the in-season one)

Dan Szymborski: OK, ZiPS thinks his BABIP *should* be at .260, so there’s a bit of underperformance in there, but not to the degree that he should be <.200

Devil Ray J. Johnson: Does the widespread use of .1 or .2 to signify 1/3 or 2/3 of an inning bother you?

Dan Szymborski: ABSOFRIGGINGLUTELY

Dan Szymborski: The first thing I have to do with any data set for pitchers is find and replace .1 to .33333333333333333333333 and .2 to .66666666666666666666666666

CamdenWarehouse: Do you think at the end of the season Chris Davis sets the record?

Dan Szymborski: I think Davis will fall short of worst WAR ever.  BUt it *is* notalbe that he’s still passing an on-pace-for IN MID FRIGGING JUNE

Dan Szymborski: Like yeah, we all know that the dude who hits 2 homers in opening day isn’t on-pace-for 324 home runs in any meaningful sense past the number point.

Dan Szymborski: And Davis’s WAR would be 3rd/4th worst for a first-half WAR, though that only goes back to 1908.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Should the Padres fans crow while they can about the Hosmer contract?

Dan Szymborski: That’s the problem with the Hosmer contract:  This is the good part of his contract, so he’s supposed to be good.  And it doesn’t really mean anything – it’s not making the Padres better long-term, it just gets them worse draft picks and forces Myers into the outfield, where the Padres already have *more* than 3 guys they need to look at in the OF even while Myers is out

Jeff: Does it make sense for the Yankees to trade for a #3/4 starter ? I don’t see an obvious top of the rotation starter being available to them. Maybe that extra win gets them out of the play in game but I’m dubious that it really will help.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll go big or not at all.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Is this the end for Jason Kipnis?

Dan Szymborski: I’m starting to fear that it is.  He’s not improving, he’s getting worse.  We’re not even getting that sad Alex Gordon dead cat bounce to make him look just lousy.

Dan Szymborski: I strongly suspect he’s going off that Steve Sax cliff.  Hopefully he can at least avoid be jailed for six consecutive life sentences for murder.

Dan Szymborski: 100% of you better get that reference or we can’t be friends.

greg: Cat update please.

Dan Szymborski: Galileo’s upstairs sleeping, he had some extra chicken this morning so he’s not bothering me yet for dinner as he normally does at 2

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio, the fat dumb tux cat, was meowing for dry food, which he’s not going to get because he’s in worse shape for a cat than I am for a human.

Dan Szymborski: I heard some hissing and some jingling, so I think Cassiopeia jumped Mercutio upstairs.

Dan Szymborski: (She’s the newest addition to my menagerie)

Dan Szymborski: It’s unlikely that it was Galileo because he’s never hissed or growled once that I’ve heard in 19 years.  Cassiopeia tries biting his tail and smacking him sometimes, but Galileo completely ignores it and continues whateve he’s doing.

Kiermaier’s Diverticulitis: Dan. …You will most likely at some point in time during this chat ask..’What is wrong with you people ?” We are supposedly functioning members of society who have decided during the middle of a Monday afternoon to particpate in  a baseball chat moderated by you. I think that answers your question as to what is wrong with us. Don’t ask questions you don’t want the answers to.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the thing:  at some point during the chat, you guys are likeling thinking “What is wrong with you?” about me.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: What is more amazing — Ian Kinsler has amassed 46.1 career WAR, or he is still 23 WAR behind Bobby Grich (a nice 69.1 career WAR)?

Dan Szymborski: Kinsler’s been a good player.  Grich ought to be in the Hall of Fame.

All Cats Are Beautiful : The Yankees intentionally left cap space for the trade deadline. Any idea how they coul use it? Are there any other teams ready to take on payroll?

Dan Szymborski: I think we’re still seeing the August/September needs solidify, but I expect the Yankees, should they see an opportunity, to be among the most aggressive teams.

Dan Szymborski: I think the Cards do something significant, especially if it helps them past this season

All Cats Are Beautiful : The Rays are in third in their division and 14.5 games out. How is that even possible?

Dan Szymborski: The Red SOx and Yankees are very good.  The rest of the division is not.

Bo: What does the Braves’ rotation in August look like? Soroka, Allard, Gohara included?

Dan Szymborski: Again, I think it depends on exactly where the Brafves are.  I dont’ think they *need* to make a big splashy acquisition.

Dan Szymborski: I think if Braves/Phillies make additions, it’ll more be the bullpen-depth-adding-of types

Tommy: Alen Hanson is a legitimate 195 wRC+ guy, right?

Tommy: but seriously, can Hanson be the next, like, Zobrist w/out the + D?

Dan Szymborski: I like a comeback story and I also like that Hanson specifically is doing well because ZiPS has been nearly intransigent about setting its sights lower on Hanson.

Dan Szymborski: He used to be higher in the ZiPS Top 100 prospects higher than else’s for years

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him at 1.1 WAR this year (in 400ish PA).  1.5 in 2017.  1.9 in 2016.

All Cats Are Beautiful : Have you ever met a major leaguer and been disappointed they weren’t the person you’d hoped they would be?

Dan Szymborski: Not really.  I try to be fairly dispassionate about players.

Ari: What is one of your strong preseason opinions that you will now openly admit that you were wrong?

Dan Szymborski: Matt Kemp is a legitimate major league player again.

Dan Szymborski: HE’S ACTUALLY PLAYING DEFENSE SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN A CADAVER

Dunt: Why do people think Michael Kopech or Carlos Rodon are the future White Sox aces when Dylan Covey exists?

Dan Szymborski: Kopech has high high upside.  And high bust potential

Bo: Braves should sell high on Markakis regardless of the standings come July, yes?

Dan Szymborski: It depends.

Dan Szymborski: I think arguably no.

Dan Szymborski: Front offices have advanced enough that they generally don’t crazy evaluate guys like Markakis as highly as htey did even 10 years ago

Dan Szymborski: and they wouldn’t get much for two months of Markakis

Dan Szymborski: and the Braves are likely to have very high-leverage games

Dan Szymborski: Now, if the Braves are 10 games out on July 31st, take what you can get, but if they’re not, Markakis has uses.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Where does Mike Moustakas find a new home?  1B for the Angels with Ohtani out?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Angels should be seriously calling

Dan Szymborski: I think the PHillies should consider a rental if they’re still in it July 31

Devil Ray J. Johnson: Do you think Ohtani could pitch left-handed?  Maybe not a sub-3.50 ERA, but maybe 4.25?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t put it past him.

All Cats Are Beautiful : Which is your favorite Star Trek?

Dan Szymborski: Later seasons of DS9

Dan Szymborski: There was no Star Trek before or since as compelling an hour as In the Pale Moonlight

Mike: Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, how do the Dodgers continue to do this? Luck or front office skill or a mix?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a skill

Dan Szymborski: but it’s always good to be lucky!

HEY YO: But Joc Pederson tho…

Dan Szymborski: I picked him as one of the 2018 breakouts!

Dan Szymborski: Pederson had a fairly miserable 2017 season, even earning him a stint for Oklahoma City (still feels weird that the Dodgers AAA franchise isn’t Albuquerque).  A lot of his offensive woes have to do with his .241 BABIP.  ZiPS thinks he should have had a .296 BABIP in 2017 based on his hit ball profile and while he has underperformed the ZiPS BABIP in the past by about 15 points in the first two season, even a .280 BABIP would have put his OPS+ around 115-120 rather than 95.

The largest flaw in Pederson’s offensive game has been his plate discipline, but his overall weak season camouflaged his progress in that front.  He swung at a lower rate of out-of-zone pitches than he did in either 2015 or 2016 and set a career high for swinging at the in-zone ones.  Despite a career-high in overall swing rate, his swinging strike rate dropped to 9.5%, actually better than the league-average, a first for him.  Two years ago it was at 14%.

Dan Szymborski: My other breakouts from that piece were Christian Yelich, Nick Castellanos, Nomar Mazara, Carlos Martinez, Adam Morgan, Danny Salazar if healthy, Dinelson Lamet.

Dan Szymborski: Definitely bombed on the last two

Dan Szymborski: now yelich cmart are good, but I argued that they had MVP/Cy upisde

CamdenWarehouse: how’s the kitten?

Dan Szymborski: She’s doing well.  She’s no longer isolated.  She torments Mercutio, but Reagan tormented Mercutio, so it’s kind of a return ot the status quo.

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio is a very friendly cat, but he’s this giant lumbering dumbass that smart cats pick on.

Rick Sanchez: Was it already a forgone conclusion that Ohtani would need surgery? Does it matter? Why can’t we have nice things, Dan?

Dan Szymborski: It’s 2017

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Luke Heimlich did not get drafted. Are you elated or ecstatic?

Dan Szymborski: I’m happy he didn’t get drafted as I don’t think he should see a large bonus.

Dan Szymborski: But I also think that it’s not unreasonable for him to pursue a baseball career.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a large chance that he’s a complete douchebag given his alleged actions that he pled to.

Dan Szymborski: But I also believe in criminal justice reform.  At some point, when the criminal and civil recourses have gone to their end, does the person have a moral right to resume what they did in society?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, on a level, you don’t want to see someone, if they’re a pedophile, obtain wealth, the retributive nature of all of us being there.

Dan Szymborski: And what does it say about us as a society if we’re cool with Heimlich being a sanitation worker instead?  That we see certain jobs as a lower caste that he gets to be.

Dan Szymborski: Do we tell everyone in jail for something awful that when they’ve served their time, they can come to society, so long as they remain poor and do jobs that most people balk at?  That seems a path for recidivism.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a very tough issue.

Dan Szymborski: Sorry to go on so much.

Dan Szymborski: I’m very torn on the whole thing

iHoB: Hi Dan! Did you have a burger for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: I did not

Travis: Is Freeman officially the best 1B in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t think I have the ability to declare that in an official capacity

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD IT’S 252 AND I’M ANSWERING QUESTIONS FROM 205

Toni: How much do you factor distance travel spots

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like flying far.

Joey Bag O Donuts: Who is the Justin Miller character? Dominate in SSS, is he legit?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS kinda likes him.

Dan Szymborski: Sorry to be more curt, but I need to answer more questions less thoughtfully

Slamboni: Rangers are obviously sellers, who all do you think they move? As a TEX fan I would be ok selling anyone but Mazara.

Dan Szymborski: Anyone who won’t be around in 3 years ought to be traded.

Moltar: Which franchise is more pathetic, the Mets or the Orioles? Both seem like they need to be wiped clean and restarted from the ground up.

Dan Szymborski: Orioles in a lot of ways.

Dan Szymborski: The Mets at least made a token effort at Ohtani.  And haven’t decided that they just won’t have international players.

Dan Szymborski: The Mets are cheap in philosophy and dumb in practice.  The Orioles are dumb *and* cheap in philosophy and dumb in practice.

Slurve: Who is currently the most underrated player in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: Aaron Nola

hscer: what scenario would it take for you to be active in something besides sabermetrics?

Dan Szymborski: Something I was truly passionate about.

Dan Szymborski: I *like* being a baseball writer.

Dan Szymborski: I *like* my identity as a baseball writer.

Dan Szymborski: I *like* being among the most veteran saber types that *isn’t* with a team, that can still retain some sense of that outside perspective.

Dan Szymborski: Even though I can’t claim to being a true outsider at this point

Dan Szymborski: I’m good at my job.  I love my job.  And I have a good life.  Why upset the apple cart?

Dan Szymborski: Apples get everywhere.  I had this dumbass peach tree that grew these shitty peaches and got all over my driveway faster than I could sweep them up and they rotted and they were BEES EVERYWHERE like Oprah had unleashed them on me

Dan Szymborski: Why do you want me to have bees?

hscer: have you ever had an ice cream waffle sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually not HUGE on icre cream

Oddball Herrera: Oh no, please don’t kick off another pedantic ‘is X a sandwich’ discussion

Look Dude: Ozzie Albies is in a bit of a funk the last few weeks.  You think his strong start left expectations too high?

Dan Szymborski: A bit.  People get too excitec sometimes.  He’s an awesome player, but he’s not a 7 win dude

Slurve: Does the “time off” or “plow through” approach work better as a slump buster for a batter?

Dan Szymborski: I think people are different enough that you have to have different approaches

CamdenWarehouse: I’m going to the Corner Stable across the street

Dan Szymborski: I was just by there at the end of April

Dan Szymborski: though I didn’t eat there, I wanted to grab some pit beef from Andy Nelson’s since I was at Home Depot

Justin: Did any single projection system think Severino would become This Good when he was a prospect?

Dan Szymborski: Not this good as a mean projection

Dan Szymborski: Becuase the best players to come out are the ones that will EXCEED their projections.

Dan Szymborski: Though ZiPS was a fan of Severino and I like to think I criticized people for trying to mofve him out of the rotation way too quickly and panicking way way way too quickly

Dan Szymborski: But that’s the thing about memory.  I might remember me being right but actually told people to sell on Severino.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t check my Twitter history here, I’m so far behind!

Daniel: Who finishes their career with more homers, Chris Davis or Khris Davis?

Dan Szymborski: Khris

Babby Szymborski: Daddy?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have kids, but I ain’t naming one Babby

Matt: Dan, you should keep your decimals correct. newIP = IP + ((IP – (floor(IP)*10)/3). You’re welcome.

Dan Szymborski: We don’t need rocket science levels of accuracy!

Dan Szymborski: Nobody dies if we lose a decimal somewhere

Kiermaier’s Diverticulitis: As to us thinking what is wrong with you?…that ship sailed a long time ago.

Zip-a-dee-do-da: Hello Dan. Game 7 of the playoffs. Bottom 9. Tie game. Winning run on 3rd. Two outs. Who would you rather have at the plate (as the home team): Max Scherzer or Chris Davis

Dan Szymborski: I think Scherzer now lol

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d prefer Kevin Costner dressed up as Crash Davis right now

Do The Chop: Dan, is Freddie Freeman now the best hitter in the NL?

Dan Szymborski: I t hink going forward, Harper will be a little better

Kiermaier’s Diverticulitis: An actual baseball question.   IMHO Carmargo is a stop gap measure for the Braves at 3rd base. Is it Austin Riley (after knee heals up) or is it a trade that fills the position? Riley seems a good fit longterm for ATL and why pay up when they are at least a year ahead of where they though they would be. 2019-2022 looks really good for them.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a wait and see.

hscer: least favorite Star Trek?

Dan Szymborski: Bad Voyager episodes and the first two years of TNG

robertobeers: How do you feel about the current Hearthstone meta? I find myself almost exclusively playing arena and dungeon runs/monster hunter and completely avoiding standard.

Dan Szymborski: Standard is much improved since the nerfs.

Dan Szymborski: Every class now has a competitive ladder deck.

The Old Buccaneer: How badly do cats shed?

Dan Szymborski: Badly

Dan Szymborski: Except for Reagan, who I *never* saw fur around from.  I’d brush her and nothing would come off.  I think she was a sentient robot cat

CamdenWarehouse: (It’s actually 2018, Dan)

CamdenWarehouse: “And what does it say about us as a society if we’re cool with Heimlich being a sanitation worker instead?  That we see certain jobs as a lower caste that he gets to be.” This is an angle that wasn’t mentioned much last week.

Dan Szymborski: Mostly, I want to stay out of this stuff!  Especially on Twitter, in which there’s a definite group pounce mentality no matter the view.

Johnny Coconuts: Why are the Pirates doing this with Nick Kingham? You could argue he’s their #3 starter for crying out loud!

Dan Szymborski: That was surprising

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, I really have to go.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, everyone.  Remember, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.