Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/17/2019

Dan Szymborski: “Dan Szymborski is chatting now.”

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD HE ISN’T PANIC

Dan Szymborski: Now I am.

The Other Dave: Is there ANY hope left for the Reds at this point? Or should they start exploring some trade scenarios? It just feels like if everything clicks, they should be a very good team. They just can’t seem to win any 1-run games.

Dan Szymborski: It kinda sucks, but their poor fortune is baked into the cake.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, they’re 8 games under their Pythag. But the thing is, you don’t get those games back. You expect them to match their Pythags going forward, not get an extra helping from the good luck carnitas.

Dan Szymborski: And that’s the fundamental problem: even if you believe their Pythag is the team’s “true” long-term level of ability, a .565 team (92 wins per 162), playing like a 92-win team only gets them to 83-79, which won’t make the playoffs.

Dan Szymborski: And the kicker is I don’t think they’re a 92 win team.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re more an 84-85 win team. Which is a few more than I thought at the start of the season.

Aaron: AL Cy Young is…..

Dan Szymborski: awarded to the best American League pitcher on a yearly basis, as voted by members of the BBWAA, two writers representing each local chapter.

Dbo: Dan, I found out that a sandwich pick in the MLB draft is not actually a team selecting which sandwiches they are allowed to serve in their stadiums. Should this rule be implemented so that certain stadiums can only serve certain foods?

Dan Szymborski: No. Why should we be deprived of excellence just because of teams?

Dan Szymborski: Plus, there would be not hot dogs

Matt: So, Mike Tauchman is apparently more deserving of a spot on the 25-man than Frazier? Am……am I missing something?

Dan Szymborski: They want Frazier playing full-time.

Dan Szymborski: And Tauchman’s likely the better player defensive, so he’s a little more useful as a role player

Chauncey: How much playing time does Voit lose with the EE acquisition by the Yankees?  One can’t imagine Stanton and Judge being healthy enough to play OF fulltime the ROS.

Dan Szymborski: I think they go into a bit of a rotatio to try and keep everyone healthy.

Matt: Travis Shaw still sucks. When does Hiura come back?

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully soon. The Brewers are in a race *now*

Jim Leyland Palmer: Would the Tigers be able to get a good second piece in addition to Clint Frazier for Matt Boyd? They need hitters bad

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why the Tigers would do this.

Dan Szymborski: Boyd’s a Tiger through 2022.

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t matter if they have hitting right now.

Dan Szymborski: The Tigers worrying about hitting in 2019 is like an eight-year-old being stressed out that he hasn’t put any income into a Roth IRA.

My staff sucks: Are any of Musgrove, Archer, Skaggs, or J Nelson showing anything pointing to better times ahead?

Dan Szymborski: Not particularly

Billy Beane: Dan, I would submit to you that the White Sox trade that gets the most flak is the Tatis swap, but the Samardzija trade (Sharknado II, if you will) is close to as bad. They gave up an above average SS in Semien, an okay (if oft-injured) #4 in Chris Bassitt, a perfectly cromulent backup catcher in Phegley, and Rangel Ravelo, who is joining a major league roster today. And that was only for one year of Samardzija! At least they had 2 1/2 years of medium game James.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t give the White Sox *too* much of a hard time as it’s way worse in hindsight than expected.

Dan Szymborski: Tatisito was no guarantee at that point

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Samardzija was even that bad at the time either.

Dan Szymborski: If you want bad at the time, look at various Marlins trades

Dan Szymborski: like Cash Moneyless, Rea/Tayron for a package of Luis Castillo and Josh Naylor or Rodney for Paddack

Fangraphs reader: Thoughts on Ron Washington saying that baseball players these days don’t know what work ethic is?

Dan Szymborski: Present Day is always worse than Previous Day.

Dan Szymborski: Which, by the transitive property of senility, means that it was way better to live in 12th century Europe than today.

Guest: Where is Clint Frazier playing on August 1st?

Dan Szymborski: The United States

RayS: Zach Collins have a shot to go Austin Riley?

Dan Szymborski: That’s pretty aggressive. Riley was torching the minors.

Dan Szymborski: Collins’s line isn’t *that* noteworthy in 2019’s crazy environment

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Kenley Jansen intentionally balked a runner over the other day. Without checking the rules, would you know how to do that, first try? Or would you kind of jump up and down on and off the rubber yelling “BALK!” and gesticulating wildly, hoping either that this was an illegal pitching motion or that the umps would have mercy on you after this pathetic display?

Dan Szymborski: Anything in the world that makes an umpire think “that ain’t right” is a balk.

Mark: This weekend’s Padres vs. Rockies series was…

Dan Szymborski: A very entertaining tire fire

Todd Bonzalez: Did you die in the mudslide? Dayton has made national news TWICE now in recent times. Better watch your step as higher powers seem keen on eliminating you (or one of your neighbors?)…

Dan Szymborski: Wait, there was a mudslide?

Todd Bonzalez: oh nevermind it wasn’t in Dayton

Dan Szymborski: It’s be a weird thing in Dayton which isn’t super flat like great plains, but isn’t particularly well suited to mudslides

Bo: What are the Braves’ biggest weaknesses and how might they improve if they want to play deeper into October?

Dan Szymborski: The bullpen depth is concerning.

Dan Szymborski: I think they make a pickup.

MiserableSDFan: Since May 1st Ian Kinsler has been the Padres 3rd best hitter and is slashing .298/.350/.526. Does his usefulness combined with Greg Garcia’s solid season make Urias a good trade piece for an Ace?

Dan Szymborski: I’d prefer not, but it depends on the ace.

Dan Szymborski: There’s honestly no pitcher I expect to be realistically available that is more valuable than Urias

LFC Mike: Best option for a closer for the Braves? They have to be thinking  trade if they want a deep run in the playoffs….. and their bullpen is causing angst (and high blood pressure) amongst my family in NC that watch all the Braves games😭

Dan Szymborski: I think their best option may not be on the roster yet.

Dan Szymborski: (I think there will be a trade)

Dan Szymborski: But really, Jackson’s been excellent.

Dan Szymborski: So maybe I’m too mean there, though they could use depth.

Matt: Dan, I’m gonna grab lunch quick. Pause the chat. I’ll be back in 10.

Eminor3rd: How can I get myself to stop eating children’s breakfast cereal?

Dan Szymborski: diabetes?

Morbo: Nacho sandwiches!

Surprise Eclipse: Any concern with Francona using Bauer like a college pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: While it’s a concern, the Indians have no choice but to ride him and he’s not a 21-year-old prospect.

Daro: Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley for Trevor Bauer. Win-win for both teams and prospects? (i mean come on Tucker needs to be in the show)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Astros do that.

Slapshot: I’m in the middle of moving today.  Is it possible to get some Szymborski words of encouragement?

Dan Szymborski: When you finish moving, you’ll be at the farthest point from your next move.

pelkey: The Braves are top 3 in most-fun

Brood550: Could Alzolay’s start be an audition for a trade?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible

CDC: Please stop advertising your consumption of raw cookie dough Mr. Szymborski. As a significant social media personality you could be causing great gastrointestinal issues to the millions of your acolytes. Your punishment should you persist is a week of Sky Line chili for breakfast ,lunch and dinner. The government has spoken.

Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of things I like raw and a lot of things I prefer cold.

Dan Szymborski: Most vegetables I will only eat raw

Appa Yip Yip: If you were standing on a slice of bread and placed another on your head like a jaunty hat, would you be a Danwich?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Jimmy Sak: What is wrong with Jose Ramirez?!!!  Can this really be the norm for the rest of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I literally have no idea.

Lizard Jesus: Odds I’m in the A’s rotation by 4th of July?

Dan Szymborski: 40%. But certainly soon after that

Eddy: Does Mike Minor get traded with the Rangers squarely in the wild card hunt?

Dan Szymborski: No, but I expect he’ll get traded when they fall out

Marshall: What is your favorite Barry Bonds stat/fact (career or single-season)?

Dan Szymborski: We live in an expanding universe. All of it is trying to get away from Barry Bonds.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, that’s a Chuck Norris fact

Dan Szymborski: My favorite is that from 2003-2007, he had 21 stolen bases and one CS

Brood550: What do you expect out of Clevinger upon return?  Picking up where he left off earlier this year?

Dan Szymborski: I would hope so, but there’s always a risk for a player coming back from injury.

Ryan: Are you watching any new shows to try and fill the GOT void?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really watch a lot of TV shows.

Dan Szymborski: Sports tend to dominate my screens.

Ryan: Could Heyward have “declined” Jansen’s balk?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so

Dan Szymborski: I mean I’m like 99.999999999999% sure you can’t

Big Joe Mufferaw: The players who will lose the most playing time are Gardner and Urshela with the EE trade. And as we have found out, injuries happen, so too many bats is a good thing!

Gaslamp Gary: Fernando Tatis Jr. is a top 5 NL shortstop right now. Change my mind/

Dan Szymborski: I would not aim to do so.

Gianni: Is Kimbrel enough pen help for the cubs?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on Morrow’s eventual recover

boredlawyer: Give me a reason to find something positive with the Cardinals current roster.  After a hot start, everyone seems to be underperforming their expectations , with the exception of DeJong and maybe Ozuna. How fortunate are they to be 3.5 back at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Well, good players underperforming has more of an upside scenario than crappy players meeting expectations.

JoeyBoomBats: Re: the Tigers and 2019 hitting- seems like the Tigers and White Sox started their rebuilds at the same point, but the Sox are a year away, and the Tigers are a decade away. What percentage of that difference is front office skill vs. luck? 50/50?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a mix.

Dan Szymborski: The White Sox have had pretty bad luck – losing Kopech/Dunning/Rodon all to TJ in like a six month period is horrific luck

Dan Szymborski: It didn’t help that the Tigers tarried overlong and waded in over conservatively to start building

James: Assuming total health, is Kyle Tucker in an ideal Astros lineup?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, but it’s hard with Yordan destroying things

Matt: Is a shart a balk?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say yes.

James: Can Yordan compete with Vladito for rookie of the year or did he start too late?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be tough, but not impossible

Dan Szymborski: Vladito hasn’t destroyed the AL or anything

Dan Szymborski: but he has a head start in the counting

Snid: Have the Russians hacked the All-Star voting?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the kids from Bayside High could hack MLB

Mason: Thoughts on the Edwin Trade? It’s hard to find a Mariner fan that’s thrilled with the Juan Then return. Any good reason why Jerry couldnt field offers up until the July 31 trade deadline?  Seems Jerry could have insisted on a different player since taking back Juan Then seems uninspiring.

Dan Szymborski: I thought it was a little light

Dan Szymborski: But teams aren’t excited about guys with EE’s profile

Dan Szymborski: he may be a bit underrated

leprekhan: What should Braves fans expect from Dallas Keuchel for 2019? His profile of track record vs. stuff and age is harder for me to peg than I thought it would be other than I doubt he will magically turn back into a Cy Young caliber guy.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a solid #2/3 who will eat innings

JoeyBoomBats: Read something about the Padres OF logjam. Seems that the most obvious trade candidate is Will Myers, who isn’t good but is owed $60M over the next 3 years. Would it take an NBA style trade with a throw in player, a la Matt Kemp & the Dodgers, for him to get moved?

Dan Szymborski: It might. I expect that Renfroe is traded

LFC Mike: Raw cookie dough between 2 slices of bread is……..?

Dan Szymborski: sandwich

Mike: Do you go to Reds games since you’re relatively close to Cincinnati?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

MiserableSDFanListener: Piggybacking on MiserableSDFan’s question, does Kinsler’s hot month make him a viable trade candidate?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Dan Szymborski: There was little interest this winter in him

Dan Szymborski: and he’s only gotten his stats back up to where they were last year

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like the first six weeks don’t count

Morbo: Dan, you are suddenly and inexplicably are placed into John Mozeliak’s body, Freaky Friday style. The only way you can return to your own body is by helping the Cardinals win their division this year. What are your first three moves?

Dan Szymborski: Release Goldschmidt, Flaherty, Ozuna, keep being a GM.

Matt : Caleb Smith for Urias, who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Pads

Dan Szymborski: Marlins probably too because I don’t think much of them

Bo: Jackson has blown six saves already. That’s not exactly “excellent”.

Dan Szymborski: Blown saves aren’t predictive in this manner.

Dan Szymborski: Joe Borowski’s Law

Brood550: How soon after the all-star break should Severino be back in the rotation?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, I don’t think even the Yankees know precisely

Salami Steve: What do you think the Indians’ best course of action with Jake Bauers is?

Dan Szymborski: If they *must* play Leonys Martin, I can’t justify Bauers in the starting lineup, which means minors. If you can play a Naquin/Mercado/Luplow OF, then DH

Snowy: How does ZIPS see Giolito the rest of the year and going forward career wise? Wondering if 10 starts is enough to move the needle

Dan Szymborski: Long-term it has

CamdenWarehouse: No John Means for ROY?

Dan Szymborski: He’s gotten zero attention really

Dan Szymborski: See Tervor Williams

Mike: For those who didn’t see the intentional balk, please explain a situation where that makes sense.

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-inte…

Matt: Raw cookie dough between two cookies is _________?

Dan Szymborski: sandwich

Morbo: Can we rename your chat to the “Dan Szymbroski Sandwich Adjudication Hour?”

Dan Szymborski: It would look suspicious if I can’t spell my name!

Dave: If you gather all of the ingredients to make bread and put them on the top and bottom of a living chicken, do you have a deconstructed chicken sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: No, they won’t stay together

Dan Szymborski: Sandwiches have to be able to take the forces of the ingredients inside

Matt: Have you ever thought about reaching out to Yandy Diaz to team up and start a podcast? You could call it “Yandy and the Digital Dandy”. You could have it produced by someone named Mandy (or Randy) and have in-depth discussions about what does and does not constitute a sandwich – and title the segment Yandy and the Dandy Talkin’ Sandys.

Dan Szymborski: Yandy and Dandy Talkin’ Tandys

Dan Szymborski: The number #1 tech podcast!

Dan Szymborski:

Steamed: How many folks will get fired for trying to make the new Steam remote streaming happen on their work PC’s?

Dan Szymborski: Probably quite a few

Dan Szymborski: Not me though!

Mike: Any reason to not have Bobby Bradley in the majors right now other than 33% Ks?  And is that enough of a reason.

Dan Szymborski: They ought to.

Dan Szymborski: He was awful in 2018, but he’s actually hitting now and when it comes to offense, the Indians are in throw stuff at the wall piont

Matt: Blown saves themselves are not predictive, but in order to blow a save, one has to do the thing that you want pitchers not to do, correct?

Dan Szymborski: But we have ways to actually measure the things you want pitchers not to do that aren’t based on some dumbass stat awkwardly thrown together by Jerome Holtzman.

Dan Szymborski: Saves are *way* worse than pitcher wins.

CamdenWarehouse: Wouldn’t you just be stuck in an unemployed Mozeliak’s body?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s at risk but he’s got the resume line.

Dan Szymborski: Plus, he’s in better shape than me

Dan Szymborski: Changing bodies is a GREAT diet tip

Bud Black: Man that was one heck of a series this weekend. But the most amazing thing I saw was Tatis scoring from third on a ball back to the pitcher in game 4. He also produced two runs on his own after singles/walks in games 1 and 4 by stealing second, drawing an overthrow and then taking third just to be driven. Is there a way to calculate the value of these “intangible” things Tatis is doing? He just seems to be a different animal than anyone else in the game. How good can this guy be?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a superstar.

Steamed: Thank you for this chat: I am milking the clock until the boss is in meetings from 1pm onward

Dan Szymborski: DON’T MILK CLOCKS. It’s weird enough that the hippies are milking flax and hemp somehow

Dan Szymborski: WHERE IS THE MILK COMING FROM

Paul Spider: Dan, where is Vidal Brujan?

Dan Szymborski: Still down in high-A, or did they promote hiM?

Leper Messiah: Thx for ur time, Dan. Jackson’s been excellent? Do you feel the need to qualify?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: Counting saves is essentially weaponizing coincidence.

LFC Mike: You are going to speak with Jessica Tandy? impressive!

Matt: The milk is coming from *inside* the house, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: IN THE FRIDGE

Stacey Abrams: Dan give me explanation for 160 pound Ketel Marte having 20 bombs already.

Dan Szymborski: funkified baseballs

Appa Yip Yip: A pop tart is not a sandwich, but if you stack three Pop tarts together, icing facing inwards, does it become a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Morbo: I’m typing with a broken finger give me a break

Dan Szymborski: you know who won’t give you a break?

Dan Szymborski:

Jeff Francoeur: Dan, Jeff here. What is your reasoning as to the heavy increase in the long ball this year?

Dan Szymborski: Balles de baseball infusé aux teh steriods~!

Mike: Indians have had a roughly league average (101 wRC+) offense in the last 30 days.

Dan Szymborski: They need to be *better* than that at this point

Dan Szymborski: And they’re still full of holes.

Steamed: The NBA and NFL should be selling their sweet sweet clock milk by the carton.

Steamed: Do you run Zips on a windows, Linux, other system?

Dan Szymborski: Windows

Zack Hample: Are you serious about the juiced baseballs or just guessing. I need to know where to stand when I steal baseballs from little kids

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: The top are the IL/PCL in 2019 using the same baseballs as the majors. The bottom are 2018 using the old ones.

Matt: So, by your crazy ideals, Dan Szymborski, you would consider a loaf of bread to be a bread sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: more like a bread napoleon

Marc: Just got my SaberSeminar tickets! Any specific things I should check out while I’m there?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, I haven’t looked at the speaker list!

isaacmeep: part of me wants to go back in time and introduce juiced baseballs into the height of the steroid era.  assuming i can procure said time machine and succeed in my mission, what’s barry bonds’ final HR total?

Dan Szymborski: I think he makes 800

Good Luck Carnitas: Thanks for giving my narcocorrido punk band a name.

(not that) James: Thank you for recognizing that Jackson has actually been good for the Braves.  Strikes a bunch of guys out, doesn’t walk many, doesn’t give up many HRs, gets a bunch of GBs.  Hard to get mad at a guy getting BABIPed into blown saves (though fair to get mad at him for his own error the other night which led to the blown save).

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to pass on to the other side.

Dan Szymborski: The other side of the chat. I’m not dying right now.

Dan Szymborski: Thought it would be kinda cool to live chat my death or even maybe stream it on twitch

CamdenWarehouse: RIP Dan

Dan Szymborski:

Giant Attitude: Who do you have closing in SF once Smith is dealt?

Dan Szymborski: Depends who’s left.

Dan Szymborski: And you need wins to have saves.

Dan Szymborski: So, long, farewell!

Dan Szymborski: BTW, I give you guys emoticons and you don’t use them!