Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/26/25

Dan Szymborski: It’s chat time!

James: Half of the Astros current rotation is basically guys picked up off the scrap heap. Is their performance sustainable and do any of them have middle rotation potential going forward?

Dan Szymborski: This is something the Astros are really good at, though. And really, most of the rotation is just averageish, which is sustainable. Brown and Valdez being good really carries the group and there’s no reason to be suspicious

Galen: If the Twins decide to sell pieces off. What would you expect the market for Buxton and/or Correa to be?  Buxton would have to wave his no trade, but I think he might if they are out of the WC race at the deadline.

Dan Szymborski: I’d expect Buxton, if actually tradeable, would fetch a good price. Correa’s been kind of meh, so I don’t think the Twins would get a nice return if they’re not eating money

Dansby Swansong: Dan, what are the major issues with the expected lockout after the 2026 season?

Dan Szymborski: Well, the owners are making noise about a salary cap, though it remains to be seen whether this is just rhetoric to “concede” later.

Dan Szymborski: The fundamental issues for players – slower salary growth than MLB’s revenue growth – remains just what it was

Dan Szymborski: The service time games, at least, haven’t been generally as obvious as in the past

War2d2: Hi Dan! I’ve been running Volpe out there as my SS in a 5×5 keeper league, but he’s been meh. Correa is available off the wire (because he’s been trbl). The thing is, Correa seems to be heating up, and he has the track record. Would you stick with Volpe or make the switch? I don’t have the roster space to carry both. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: In a KEEPER league, I’d probably hang onto Volpe over Correa

Reynolds Wrap: It’s shocking to me how badly B. Reynolds has played for the Buccos this year. Just bad luck or is this what his career winding down looks like?

Dan Szymborski: THIS bad, it’s shocking. However, 2021 was never the player he was, he’s a league-averageish player.

Dan Szymborski: But the thing is, this is a bit too soon for a cliff to be typical

Kevin: You recently mentioned preseason team projections actually do a better job projecting the following season’s results than the upcoming season’s results. Why would that be? And wouldn’t that be cause to make changes to the model for the upcoming season? Have you already done that?

Dan Szymborski: Because recency bias is huge

Dan Szymborski: And obviously, you wouldn’t predict 2026 using 2025’s preseason projections

Dan Szymborski: It’s only interesting that it’s more predictive than ACTUAL 2025 data

Guest: Out of Vientos, Baty, Mauricio, and Acuna, should the percentages suggest that at least one should be able to cover 3B for the Mets at a league-average level for a couple of years? Or is this a case of a 4 guys with a 25% chance of working out not adding up to 100%?

Dan Szymborski: PIcking out WHO is the tricky part. I’m more bullish on Vientos than his current offensive numbers, though Baty’s almost certainly the superior fielder

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the latter two have enough chance to hit enough to really be plausible 3B, but who knows

Guest: What is the difference between Hard Hit% and Hard %? FG seems to have two, one is from Baseball Info Solutions and the other seems to be more regularly used. Why one over another?

Dan Szymborski: Statcast uses 95 mph. I don’t think BIS uses a bright line, but I COULD be wrong

Dan Szymborski: and really, the differences aren’t enough to really agonize about

I am the Apple: Which non-baseball thing would ZiPS be best at?

Dan Szymborski: Heating my office

I am the Apple: Which non-baseball thing would Szymborski, Dan be best at?

Dan Szymborski: video games, piano

Bob Loblaw: I believe you mentioned that you are an agnostic. Would believing in a simulated reality challenge that considering a simulation would have a creator/creators?

Dan Szymborski: I’m agnostic. I lack sufficient evidence of the state of the universe to know one way or the other

Dan Szymborski: and I do believe there’s a chance that we’re in a simulation, though it doesn’t have any practical effect

I am the Apple: Which non-baseball thing is best?

Dan Szymborski: tacos?

Coolidge: The dispensationalists have taken over. Lord help us!

Lowe Distribution System: Projection question: if two guys in AAA have the same stats on everything, but one is 21 years old and one is 27, would they project differently just for the rest of the season?  I ask because it seems like whenever we see an old guy killing it in AAA he still isn’t useful even on the bench in the majors

Dan Szymborski: short term, USUALLY no. It’s more o f along term thing

Dan Szymborski: but you rarely get disputes that neat

Guest: Do you think the emphasis on swing speed metrics could lead to an increase in back injuries among hitters? Could this become an endemic issue, similar to how advanced pitching data has coincided with a rise in elbow surgeries?

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, I know little more about human physiology than a general idea how babies are made. I would imagine that swing speed could cause more back injuries in people who swing BADLY

Dan Szymborski: I imagine that most players get good enough coaching by this level that it probalby doesn’t make a difference

Dan Szymborski: but this is an educated guess. I don’t KNOW

BeefLoaf108: How much of your trolling me and other White Sox fans do you think factored in to the bad karma that is apparently clobbering your Baltimore Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: I troll everyone and everything! Half of commentary journalism is trolling

Dan Szymborski:

Adam: Will we look back on this as the best half season in Andy Pages’ career, or is there even more there?

Dan Szymborski: I expect this is LIKELY what his peak looks like

Nick: What do I do with Oneil Cruz? He’s hurting my team. Do I bench him? Trade him?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll always be patient with the SS who hits balls with the velocity of protons in the large hadron collider

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Dan Dan, the fantasy man, have you seen Final Fantasy MTG yet, and are you a filthy commander player?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t played MTG in 30 years really.

Dan Szymborski: I rarely had friends to play and I never really got back into it

Thanks for the chat!: What would you offer Judge for a 3-4 year free agent deal this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: a small country

Dan Szymborski: If I could get him on a 3 year deal, I’d have zero qualms about offering $70 million per

Dan Szymborski: Well, unless I have to pay for it. I don’t have $70 million

Coolidge: I look at Michael Harris’ preseason zips projection. Then I look at his numbers this season. Then I cry, dear god what has happened.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that ZiPS projection isn’t going well

Adam: Are the Savannah Bananas good/bad/neutral for baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I am always for nonsense

Lord Thunder: Would you let Ohtani pitch if you ran the Dodgers?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: I PAID FOR THE CRUISE CONTROL AND MOONROOF

Dan Szymborski: Well, I guess cars come with the cruise control don’t they?

Dan Szymborski: insert another optional safeety feature

Guest: Can you see deep learning methods, particularly newer RNN and transformer architectures, improving existing projection models?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly possible! Though I think we’ll only see incremental games

Phil: Is Walker Buehler in big big trouble, or just trouble? It’s all command, I think–the stuff looks OK–but it obviously needs to be fixed.

Dan Szymborski: moderate trouble

War2d2: Tucker has been great, but probably not an MVP candidate. What does Zips think his next contract looks like at this point?

Dan Szymborski: $3 something last I checked

Dan Szymborski: But who knows – there just aren’t many bats avaialble in FA next couple years

Allantes: If you ran the Cubs and with the benefit of hindsight, would you have topped the Astros to sign Hader?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Jeff in Jersey: I’d sign Tucker for $3!

Dan Szymborski: Quiet you!

Bob Loblaw: Why is it when you look at the Statcast Batted Ball Profile Leaderboard the results are sorted by Pull Air %? I understand its importance, however, I wouldn’t think that would be the end all for balls put into play.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a pretty big deal though! remember https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pulled-fly-ball-revolution-was-always-…

Ethan: Could you see the Rangers trading Corey Seager? He has 6/$186 (salary not AAV) after this year. When thinking about the Mets and their deficiencies and also long term roster building, taking on Seager’s contract seems like a worthwhile risk compared to giving Alonso a 5 year deal worth around $30 million a year. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see them doing that

Dan Szymborski: they didn’t do a huge rebuild when things were going far far worse

Dan Szymborski: and I dont’ think there’s been a fundamental change in the org

Dan Szymborski: and they’re only a couple games out in the wild card!

Adam: If you owned the Rockies, what type of team would you try to build to maximize your chance at sustainable winning?  Feels like they’ve tried numerous different philosophies over the years but can’t seem to overcome the altitude.  (Or is the altitude just an excuse?)

Dan Szymborski: I think trying to build a specific TYPE of team runs you into trouble

Dan Szymborski: The general strategy should be to opportunistically build as good a team as possible. Be more concerned about the quality than the archetype

Insert Witty Name Here: Do you know of a way to find out the highest single game pitch counts in a game over the last ten years or so? I messed around in the leaderboards recently and I couldn’t find a way to do so.

Dan Szymborski: I think stathead has that, I don’t think we do

Matt: FanGraphs notwithstanding, why aren’t there more nerds in baseball? Every time I see Michael Busch all I can think of is Simon Pegg – are we sure they’re not related?

Dan Szymborski: athletes are usually too busy to do all the nerd stuff

Hmm: Which Dan cat would product the highest Barrel%?

Dan Szymborski: Justinian

Dan Szymborski: he’s easily the most athletic of my current cats

Dan Szymborski: Though when he was alive, it would have been Galileo

Adam: Who’s the best player that the fewest people in this chat have ever heard of?

Dan Szymborski: Joe Kelley?

Jacob: Ryan Pepiot has already done more for the Rays than Glasnow has for the Dodgers.  Can we just admit that Glasnow is made of fragile glass?

Dan Szymborski: Shoudl change his name to Glaslater\

Guest: How many more years of pitching at this level would you need to see from deGrom for him to be a HoF for you?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the answer isn’t 0

Dan Szymborski: But I’m more of a peak guy than the vast vast majority of BBWAA members

Dan Szymborski: I would have voted for Johan Santana

Dan Szymborski: and I’m seriously thinking about votes for King Felix and David Wright

Bob Loblaw: So how long before Jacob Misiorowski takes over the world?

Dan Szymborski: He needs a larger army

the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: various cheeses and a very spicy pickle. I was at Jungle Jim’s yesterday

Lowe Distribution System: Aren’t Henderson and Cowser always doing Lego and Star Wars stuff?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but that stuff is cooler than it used to be!

Lowe Distribution System: After winning the World Series, Sean Doolittle was just wandering around the infield playing with a lightsaber

Guest: Jacob Merceniorowski

Allantes: I’m a big “peak” HoF guy. Anyone who throws a perfect game should be in.

Dan Szymborski: Tha’ts a little short a peak for me!

Allantes: Are the Athletics the only team with green as a primary uniform color?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’re the only MLB team in history to use green as their primary color, not just an alternate or a secondary trim or something

Dan Szymborski: At least modern baseball – I don’t know every uniform of the 1800s

Dan Szymborski: but I imagine they were mostly the offwhite or gray

Matt: Re DeGrom, if his 2021 season was authored by a reliever, we’d be talking about one of the greatest relief seasons of all time, on par with Gagne in ‘03. Instead he gets 10th place for Cy vote and his season is relegated to the dustbin of history. In short, injuries suck and we can’t have nice things

Victoria: I’m a “big peak” HOF gal, it doesn’t matter how good your peak was as long as it lasted a long time

Allantes: Mark Teixiera is super into musicals. Not classic nerding, but quite nerdy nonetheless.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a sucker for musicals too

Garth: I think the Devil Rays used some off-green? Maybe I just remember it that way because they sucked so bad.

Dan Szymborski: yeah, but it wasn’t really prominent the way it is with the A’s

Drewnasty: Better movie – Ghostbusters 2 or Robocop 2?

Dan Szymborski: Ghostbusters

mmddyyyy: Is 2 the most possible TJS?

Dan Szymborski: I woudl think you could possibly do more, but I’m unaware of anyone who had more than 2

Dan Szymborski: Did Venters?

Drewnasty: That is the correct answer. Thank you Dan.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t know I was getting rated!

MN Dave: Buxton has a NTC, no chance is he traded

Dan Szymborski: everybody has a price

mmddyyyy: How many submariners are left in pro ball?

Dan Szymborski: They are still around!

Dan Szymborski: I can’t claim to know every minor league submariner

Dan Szymborski: but I’d call Rogers/Hill/Thompson as clearly submariner

Dan Szymborski: and then there’s a bunch of guys where it depends on your sidearm/submarine cutoff

Dan Szymborski: like lawrence

Dan Szymborski: and milner

Jeff in Jersey: Amen to voting for Santana and DeGrom for the HOF. Spending in this era shows that teams value upper-tier performance far more than consistency/durability. Could you imagine the bidding for Santana today after his ’03-’07 run today?

mmddyyyy: Do pitchers pitch better when they get run support?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found a correlation

ajake57: Yes, Venters had 3

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I knew he had three surgeries but didn’t remember offhand if one was a shoulder

Dan Szymborski: Do have to go fairly strictly at 1:00, I’m supposed to drop off my car at the body shop by 1:30

mmddyyyy: What is your job title?

Dan Szymborski: Senior Writer

Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t really get hung up on titles

West Coast Bias Truther: What does Cal Raleigh need to do to become the MVP frontrunner?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly murder Aaron Judge and not get caughyt?

Garth: Tejay Antone is working his way back from his 3rd TJS.

ajake57: Sorry, Venters had 4 TJs!

Dan Szymborski: Ack

John B: Jordan Walker –  would you send him down one last time or just hang in there?

Dan Szymborski: send him down. he’s not helping the team

Phil: Jay on 3 TJs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jonny-venters-and-the-official-tommy-john-…

Dan Szymborski: good catch

ajake57: 4 TJs and shoulder capsule repair, according to wikipedia

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Is Cal Raleigh the best catcher in baseball now? Will Contreras has jit a wall, Rutschman has hit a larger bigger wall, realmuto is on the back 9 and bowling ball kirk can’t hit like cal.

Dan Szymborski: Yes+

Adam: Have you ever caught a foul ball or home run?

Dan Szymborski: I have never caught a home run. I do have a Craig Worthington foul ball

Not Cal Raleigh: Someone else could murder Aaron Judge, it doens’t have to be Cal.

Dan Szymborski: But if he did it and didn’t get caught, that’s an extremely valuable win contribution

Honkus Wagner: brat toppings, whats the top tier?

Dan Szymborski: on brat, kraut or GFY

RasiedUp: I was having this conversation with my brother law over the weekend. But it feels like when teams are up in day games there is less chance of a comeback vs night games. Is that just a weird bias I feel?

Dan Szymborski: I think it may be simply observational bias, but I don’t actually KNOW for sure

Will: One of the things I’ve noticed in guys who have come up to the MLB this year and had trouble (Jac Caglianone, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell after his hot start) is a super high % of ground balls in the minor leagues and/or a high GB/FB ratio. Is that something you keep an eye out for when you look at prospects/do you think teams overlook it when deciding to call up prospects from the minor leagues? (Sorry long question I know)

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found a systematic quality to this in translations

Adam: Should MLB players play in the 2028 Olympics?

Dan Szymborski: No, because I think the Olympics are a dumb place to showcase baseball

Dan Szymborski: WBC is better at being baseball’s Olympics than the actual Olympics could possibly be

Dan Szymborski: And I like less prominent sports getting the attention

Jacob: Rasmussen has had 3 surgeries for his elbow 2 TJS and 1 internal brace surgery

War2d2: Need caramelized onions on a brat, come on now

Dan Szymborski: I’m weird, I prefer onions raw

Dan Szymborski: I like the pungency and the crunch

Dan Szymborski: If I can’t get the onions raw on a cheesesteak, then just wiz

glt4dc: With the NBA draft going on, it’s interesting (to me, anyways) how much more willing NBA teams are willing to include first round picks (and swaps), than NFL teams, which are much more tight-fisted with trading them.  Anyhow, given this is a baseball site, I was wondering if MLB ever decided to let teams trade draft picks, would teams be more likely to adopt an NBA or NFL approach/valuation of these picks?

Dan Szymborski: Draft pick trading would have CBA implications, so that’s the big reason MLB hasn’t gone there

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, I really have to go. Body shop is 15 minutes away and I’m not even dressed

Dan Szymborski: see you all!