Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/4/18

Dan Szymborski: Because You Were Bad:  A terrible Szymborski chat is incoming.

Seth: Can the Reds have Mize? Too many Ks for the top hitters…

Dan Szymborski: The Reds have struck out fewer times than league average.

Dan Szymborski: We live in a world in which 8.6 K/9 is average.

Raymond: How have your expectations of Rafael Devers shifted since the beginning of the season

Dan Szymborski: Not really.  We’re talking about a guy that basically skipped AAA and probably had a higher BABIP than was expectable

Josh Nelson: Does ZiPS like anyone from this draft class?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do the projections for draftees until I have to!

Dan Szymborski: I *hate* using college stats.  And I ain’t using high school stats.

Bryan: Greetings Traveler!

Dan Szymborski: Additional Hearthstone-related reference.

Adam: What’s a realistic return for Jacob Degrom from the Yankees?

Dan Szymborski: If something like this would happen, the price would be steep.  DeGrom’s got two years to FA.

Dan Szymborski: I think a bit less than the White SOx got in the Sale trade though.

Layup Donuts: Which Mets old dude has the best chance at still being good? Gonzalez, Bruce, or Joey Bats?

Dan Szymborski: Bruce maybe.  Unless he keeps uh…getting injured… when asked to do things he doesn’t want to.

Matt: Is Sonny Gray turning a corner?

Dan Szymborski: There are reasons for optimism, but he also had two of his best starts against the Royals and O’s, essentially clownshoe teams.

hscer: Ian Desmond hit .333/.452/.625 in his last 7 games…he’s been worth almost -1 WAR this year so far!

Dan Szymborski: I should buy adspace at Coors Field that just has the definition of sunk cost on it.

Hello There: What’s going on with Manny Margot?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say.  When I’ve seen him, it’s looked like he’s been extra patient, waiting for the perfect pitch with which to ground out to third base.

Eddie Waitkus: Serious question: is Mike Trout the greatest player ever?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit premature

Dan Szymborski: But my old joke “Maybe instead of calling Mike Trout the next Willie Mays, we should call Willie Mays the previous Mike Trout,” that I would m ake during his rookie season sounds less ridiculous

Bo: With Gohara and Sanchez back, and Soroka nearing the end of his rehab, who are the odd men out in the Braves’ rotation? Can the Braves fetch anything of value for guys like McCarthy or Teheran?

Dan Szymborski: McCarthy, probably not.  A bit too erratic and too much of an injury history, I’m not sure he’s any more desirable for an acquiring team than when he was included in that Kemp trade that was mainly an accountants’ trade

Dan Szymborski: I think Teheran can fetch a prospect — though not a top one — if a team thinks they can fix him

Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t really been good this year

Chad: Hold Christin Stewart in a dynasty pts league or take an extreme chance on Seuly Matias?

Dan Szymborski: Depends if you can win now or prefer to win later.

Dan Szymborski: Matias is crushing it, but he’s years out.

THE Average Sports Fan: Kershaw can’t opt out can he?  With a bad back and wrong side of 30 he can’t get a huge long term deal can he?

Dan Szymborski: I think if he comes back and have a terrific second half with no injury issues, he can opt-out

Dan Szymborski: But if the back is still nagging in August and September, then coming back for, I believe, 2/65 has some lure

Bill: How insane is it that Matt Kemp might be the Dodgers 2018 All Star representative?

Dan Szymborski: Only the Dodgers can win Matt Kemp-related trades, it seems!

Dan Szymborski: He’s been legitimately good this year

Dan Szymborski: Not even playing defense at his normal descriptor of hot garbage

Dan Szymborski: da mihi facta, dabo tibi sabermetrics

Charlie Culberson: “I don’t always hit home runs, but when I do I prefer walk-offs.”

Zach: Gleyber Torres

Eric: Gleyber Torres- O/U 25 homers this year?

Dan Szymborski: O

Matt: If Nick Markakis was wrapped in a big tortilla, would he be a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: No

Brandong Nimmo: ZiPS still doesn’t believe in Nimmo. Do you think that changes?

Dan Szymborski: It’s slowly coming around!  It still remembers that he was pretty lousy in AAA last year

Kiermaier’s Deviated Septum: Dan..Happy Draft Day.   The Astro’s  outfield monster of Gonzalez/Marisinick/Fisher/Davis..basically anyone not named Springer..has had modest production at best. With the Astro’s overwhelmingly favored to win the division and go far into the playoffs, would they introduce Kyle Tucker into the mix or stay status mediocre quo?

PS if you place two soft taco’s together opened faced..would you have a burrito?  Welcome Back Baseball Food Chat!

Dan Szymborski: Stop turning tacos into burritos!

Dan Szymborski: It’s not sealed

Dan Szymborski: You just hav ea mess

CoopDeVille: Is Carlos Carrasco over-rated? I dealt away Blake Snell when I could have moved Carrasco for a greater return.  I’m thinking maybe I dealt the better pitcher after all.

Dan Szymborski: I still like Cookie

Dan Szymborski: Speaking of which, I recently had a dream in which I hired Cookie Monster as my attorney.

Owen S: I ****ing love corresponding

The Decadent Moose: Have the Orioles figured out who they are yet?

Dan Szymborski: Deluded.  They h aven’t noticed yet

Jim: What are your thoughts on Daniel Mengden? Can he prevent runs somewhat like this without the strikeouts?

Dan Szymborski: Color me skeptical.  Nothing he throws really scares me, he’s not a groundball nut like some of the guys that survive on that k rate, and last I checked, his velocity-against wasn’t impressive by any means

Raul Gillette: Better offensive SS this season and going forward: Rosario or Swanson?

Dan Szymborski: Swanson

Matt: Before the start of today’s game, the Yanks have played 6 (if I remember correctly) less games than the Red Sox. The Yanks had a much tougher schedule at the beginning of the season, and was looking to an advantage in the second half. How much does the Strength-of-Schedule advantage get mitigated by jamming a bunch more games into the schedule?

Dan Szymborski: FEWER

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how to do a Whole Crapload of Rainout Makeup Games adjustment, unfortunately

Wreckx N. Effect: Most likely current closers to get dealt at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Padres blink and trade Hand

Dan Szymborski: O’s should trade Britton if he’s fine, but wtf knows what the O’s do.

Dan Szymborski: White Sox should cash in Soria if you count him

Jim: Does anybody in the Angels organization know that batting Pujols 4th and Simmons not 1st is a terrible idea? They can’t possibly bat Albert cleanup for the rest of his contract, can they?

Dan Szymborski: I think some people know, but nobody that can make Scioscia not do that

Dan Szymborski: And Scioscia’s not going to embarrass a vet like Pujols

O’s Nos: How close are you to cracking the conspiracy that has led to Nick Markakis’s 141 wRC+?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got Eric Garland game theorying it

Slapshot: Nick Markakis, possible NL All Star is a cruel joke Cistulli is playing on the world, isn’t it?

Matt: A terrible Szymborski chat is incoming. That’s pretty great, because my expectations were that it’d be abysmal. You’ve now likely set the bar too high.

Dan Szymborski: Crap, I thought I was just mediocre.  This is a gamechanger.

snip: Who do the White Sox take at #4, Singer or Madrigal and why?

Dan Szymborski: I think they take Singer

Dan Szymborski: YOu pretty much have to keep Madrigal on that side of the defensive spectrum, he’s not going to hit enough you can move him that far down.

Dan Szymborski: And the fact that there’s a *belief* he can handle SS professionally rather than a bit more certainty is an added element of risk

Dan Szymborski: I think if Giolito or Fulmer had been working out, maybe White Sox would be more willing

CamdenWarehouse: What did we do?

Dan Szymborski: Lose?

Raul Gillette: Which OF should the Padres give the most PT to? How far is the club away from contention, in your opinion?

Dan Szymborski: 2020.

Dan Szymborski: How much shoulda can I go to?

Dan Szymborski: I’d certianly be playing M argot.  And Renfroe, I think seeing what they actually have in him is important

Dan Szymborski: And you have to play Reyes when he’s up, you can’t let him ride the bench

Dan Szymborski: Myers eventual return complicates things.  But I wouldn’t hjave signed Hosmer in the first place

Dan Szymborski: Even though Hosmer’s been good, it’s essentially meaningless in 2018.  It just makes the last place Padres have worse picks in the draft

David: What do you make of the Twins?  Think they should be buyers and can compete with the Indians?

Dan Szymborski: Depends where they realistically are in July.  I dont’ think they should be aggressive right now

Devil Ray J. Johnson: Wait, there are non-terrible Szymborski chats?

John: Is Luis Severino a top 5 pitcher at this point?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say yes

JD Martin: Why is ZiPS so pessimistic about Seranthony Dominguez?  5.37 ERA projected for RoS

Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s still projecting him as a starter.

Dan Szymborski: and he has a very short resume

Ben T: Do you believe in Newcomb/Folty turning into legit frontline starters for Atlanta? Seems they are both turning a corner…

Dan Szymborski: Newcomb still not quite there yet

Dan Szymborski: Foltynewicz has improved far more than I expected.

Dan Szymborski: He’s legit now, I think

Looking For Food Chat: Would you trade a Milwaukee Brat for a Philly Cheese Steak? I always thought there was a rift between those two.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll take the cheesesteak first

Dan Szymborski: I’m not from Philly, but Baltimore was close enough that I’ve been in Philly plenty.  Plus, you had a lot of transplants so you could find good cheesesteaks in the are

Dan Szymborski: a

Dan Szymborski: I’m partial to Dalessandro’s and John’s Roast Pork BTW

Kevin White: Dan, how would one go about translating ZiPS season long projections to daily projections? Sincerely, Lowly DFS Player

Dan Szymborski: A lot of work 🙂

James: Do the Angels use Canning in the bullpen by the end of this season? Angels need major help there

Dan Szymborski: They COULD.  They started him at an aggressive spot in the minors, which leads one to believe he could get a September cameo if need be.

Dan Szymborski: I suspect probably no

John: Does Brinson get dropped to AAA ball?

Dan Szymborski: If so, I hope it’s pretty brief.  I dont’ think he has much more to learn in AAA

Dan Szymborski: He’s gotta either sink or swim in the majors.

Dan Szymborski: And the Marlisn don’t have meaningful wins that he’s getting in the way of

Black Panther: Is Mazzara gonna stay this good?

Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic so I can stop calling him a breakout candidate in a piece every single March!

Dan Szymborski: He was always “supposed” to have power like this

CamdenWarehouse: How excited are you for Owen Sharts to make the majors?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: people think I made up steve sharts in the zips comps

Nick: Is there any long term hope for Giolito?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s too soon to throw in the towel on him

Dan Szymborski: But something is REALLY wrong with him this year

Mufasa: Of all the teams that are NOT holding a playoff spot today, which one has the best chance of clinching a spot?  (Current playoff teams: Yanks, Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Astros… Braves, Nats, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks)

Dan Szymborski: Phillies, Dodgers

Steve: Thoughts on Hoskins?  Being pitched fastballs up and away.  Think he adjusts?

Dan Szymborski: I think he will

Colonel Crawdad: Do you see Bundy figuring out his HR problem or is he doomed to great strikeouts and bombs forever?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’ll be *this* bad; he’s only a 40 HR pace.  But I think he’ll always be a 25-30 HR guy

Dave Cameron’s Burner Account: How is that Hosmer contract working out?

Dan Szymborski: That’s the beautiful thing.  Hosmer’s best seasons are projected to be years it doesn’t matter.

thelaundry: Between the 2 clownshoe teams, the Royals and Os, whose shoes are bigger/more likely to cause pratfalls going forward? For all the doubts I have about the Royals’ ability to build another contender anytime soon, at least they haven’t sworn off one source of amateur talent.

Dan Szymborski: I think the Royals are a better run franchise than the O’s

Dan Szymborski: Don’t take that as complimentary

O’s Nos: So what is the current leaderboard among fan bases that hate you?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t tracked this year.  I’ve been getting less hate mail for some reason since the start of last year

connor: What promotions from minors do Rockies make to try to make playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Probalby sign Hanley Ramirez and trade prospects for magic beans that they give a 3/50 extension to.

JC: Most important Q of the day: Have you played Slay the Spire yet?

Dan Szymborski: Yup.  Not a *ton*

Dan Szymborski: I’m not very good at it yet

Patience, Padawan: Why does everyone keep saying that Baby Vlad and Eloy have to come up right. now.?  Yeah they’re killing it, but “it” here is AA.  Can’t a team credibly say they should spend 0.5+ seasons in AAA before playing in the toughest baseball league on the planet?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: The quesiton for the Blue Jays, however, is that Vladito has the possibility to make the Jays better right now in meaningful games

Dan Szymborski: Though that psosibility is lessened than a few weeks ago as the Jays I think are reaching the point at which the playoffs are becoming an extreme longshot no matter what they do

Tony: Can Javy Baez buck all logical beliefs and be an all-star caliber player without virtually ever walking, or is this always going to limit his upside?  I keep waiting for his numbers to crash spectacularly but somehow he still gets enough hittable pitches to do a lot of damage.

Dan Szymborski: Not every players needs to walk, it’s just harder to be a good player without walking

Bryce: RE: Margot. Is the Padres strategy to bring up players before they’re ready so that they never develop properly and are then cheaper?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s the problem with Margot!

Dan Szymborski: He was literally a league-average centerfielder last year

Ted: Can Andujar maintain a 121 wRC+ while literally never walking?

Dan Szymborski: Moustakas can, so I don’t see why he can’t

CamdenWarehouse: Is Matt Kemp’s and Nick Markakis’s success this year why you’ve missed more 3/4 of your chats since the season started?

Dan Szymborski: I missed April chats because one of my cats died very suddenly and I was only doing a minimal level of stuff.

What: Had SF Giants twitter argue w me that Pablo Sandoval is a good utility infielder. They prob need to rebuild, right?

Dan Szymborski: Well, do they consider making candles or soap within the confines of “utility?”  Those are useful things

jg: Is Bellinger ever going to be good again?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

54: Do you believe in Scooter?

Dan Szymborski: Not to this level

hscer: why are we ascribing sentience to ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Easier to scapegoat a sentient thing

Dan Szymborski: Like how we pretend Carson has a soul in order to blame him for things

HappyFunBall: If you wrapped a taco salad up in a tortilla, is it a taco salad?

If you ate an open-faced burrito, is it a taco salad?

Dan Szymborski: no, it may be a taco salad taco

Dan Szymborski: and open faced burrito is just a giant taco

Matt: Regarding two tacos becoming a burrito – no, but if you heat it up with some cheese, it becomes a quesadilla.

Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Is a tostada really just a mexican open faced sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: What is wrong with you people?

Johan Camargo: How many dedicated trolls would it take to turn me into the next Nick Markakis wrt your chats?

DPW: Luis Castillo or Zack Godley more likely to turn it around this year?

Dan Szymborski: Castillo I think, but I’m a huge fan

Jay: As an Orioles fan what is your dream return for a Machado trade?

Dan Szymborski: Any trade in which the O’s get to throw in the Angeli and Brady Anderson

O’s Nos: The Royals won the series in 2015.  The statute of limitations against mocking them has to be getting close, no?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never recognized that statute of limitations

Matt: YOU MALIGNANT BASTARD. I’LL GET YOU.

Dan Syzmborski: This chat is terrible. Nailed another projection.

Ray: Fangraphs standings says the Yanks have played 55 G for a 37-17 record…what?

Dan Szymborski: That’s weird.  I thought they forgot to remove a rainout from the game etotals, but the O’s are right

Lunch Angle: I have stubbornly resisted buying Scooter Gennett as a legitimate offensive force. Is it time I quit being so stubborn?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to have a .400 BABIP at the end of the year.  But the rest of the stuff is real.

Sheriff Hot Dog: Why are there so many reports saying that Detroit is out on Mize? Seems like a no-brainer at the #1 spot.

Dan Szymborski: I’m behind this morning as I woke up late.  I did not know that ground had shifted suddenly

Dan Szymborski: O

Dan Szymborski: I’ve assumed for awhile that it would be Mize at #1.

Dan Szymborski: Probably should have talked to Keith.

Curious: never had heard of eric garland til your shoutout earlier. that was a rollercoaster of a 5 min readup for me

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry you know who he is now.  That’s on me.

Turd Ferguson: What if you split a burrito longways, would you end up with two soft tacos?

Dan Szymborski: Sort of?  Again, what’s wrong with you people?

Turd Ferguson: If you put Nick Markakis in a hot dog bun instead of a tortilla, would he then be a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: NO

Oyster Burns: mancinis babip is a bit low, but he’s also hitting more grounders. you think he can straighten out a bit ros?

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I thought he was over his head in 2017.  I was buying Schoop’s step forward more than Mancini’s

Dan Szymborski: He’s always hit a *lot* of grounders

Dan Szymborski: I know Norfolk’s not the PCL, but that was an anemic 2016

Marshall: Suppose Kershaw’s career is over due to his injuries (I’m not saying that’s the case). His career would end at about the same age as Koufax. Who was better?

Dan Szymborski: Koufax.  Kershaw’s total career, he’s pitched nearly as well as Koufax’s final five, but in like 50% more IPs

Dan Szymborski: Though he’d have trouble matching Koufax’s individual seasons, just from the innings

David: What are the best and worst ballpark food items you’ve ever had?

Dan Szymborski: Best I’d have to think about as I’ve eaten a lot

Dan Szymborski: Worst would be a whole boatload of stadium pizza

RotoLando: I don’t care that he was “injured”,  Hellickson’s 0.1 inning of shame sank my team, and I thus declare him a Klobb.

marichal: In your response to the SD OF question you didn’t mention Franchy Cordero. How should he figure in?

Dan Szymborski: I only didn’t mention him since he’s injured too

Dan Szymborski: When he’s back, he should obviously play over anyone else in a corner, really

Griffin: Should the Tigers being looking to trade anyone on their MLB roster at the deadline? Besides maybe Candelerio?

Dan Szymborski: What?

Dan Szymborski: WTF would the Tigers trade Candelario?

Dan Szymborski: If he’s still hitting and not extended, they ought to be trading Castellanos this July

Bo: How many MLB games do you attend in a year, across how many ballparks? Ever as just a fan?

Dan Szymborski: Usually 20-30

Dan Szymborski: I’ll usually pay at Camden Yards since I’m frequently with friends.

Dan Szymborski: Other than that, I’ll work som ein the press box

Dan Szymborski: and sometimes wander off and sit with random people

Turd Ferguson: Logan Gilbert goes on to be the most successful major leaguer out of this draft, write it down.  He has the hair necessary these days to become an ace.  Mize will get drafted 1.1 and then subsequently need TJ.

Dan Szymborski: OK, after 3 and a I gotta go

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.

Mr. Fister: You fangraphs writers are exceptionally courteous when it comes to not calling out questioners for their exceptionally terrible spelling and grammar.  Cheers!  I know it is a struggle to NOT comment on such things.

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I can’t let fewer/less go.  This is a civilized society.