Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/8/17

Dan Szymborski: Whew, there’s a queue! Well done, prince of darkness.

ChiSox: What can the White Sox offer to the Cubs for Jaimer Candelario?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little tricky matching these teams up as the stuff that the Cubs would need isn’t really waht the White Sox have.

Tom: Would you trade Machado for Bellinger and Rosario in a dynasty?

Dan Szymborski: That’s pretty tough. Especially if Machado ever gets SS qualifying in your league.

Dave: What does ZIPS think of Chuck Taylor?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to run it.

Matt: *Sung to the tune of Bad Boys*
Szymchat Szymchat. What you gonna do? What you gonna do when you thought it was supposed to be on Wednesdays and waited for like an hour but it never came and then you realized it was on Thursday.

Will: Offered Stroman and Gardner for Trea Turner

Dan Szymborski: After the week I had on Twitter, I don’t want to talk about Trea Turner trades!

Dan Szymborski: I had a slew of very angry Padres fans at my comment that nobody would give Turner and Ross for Myers today.

Minty: McCullers or Springer in OBP/QS keeper?

Dan Szymborski: They’re fairly equivalent, it depends on what you have and where you stand.

Pine Marten: Is 2017 the year a Colorado Rockies pitcher wins ROY? Hoffman, Marquez, Senzatela, Freeland all shoving it right now.

Dan Szymborski: If the season ended right now, you would see Senzatela and Freeland get significant votes.

Dan Szymborski: But I’m not sold on them. I’m higher on Hoffman, but he doesn’t have a lot of IP yet.

Dan Szymborski: (Especially unsold on Freeland)

Dan Szymborski: It’s not as deep a rookie class last year. My vote for Seager was easy, but 2/3 took a long time.

Dan Szymborski: If he’s up to stick, I expect Bellinger to be the favorite.

yojiveself: what do the 1B and the guy who just got a hit usually talk about? I just asked Eno and he said he wasn’t sure.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never really asked, to be honest.

Dan Szymborski: Never gave it much thought, that feels a bit like none of my business if that makes sense.

J. Pesky: Is Tyler Flowers for real?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve physically seen that he exists and Dave Stewart is out of the league, so I dont’ think any GMs would sign fictitious players.

Dan Szymborski: If you’re asking me if he’s a .420 BABIP player, I think you know what that answer is.

Baryolo Cologne: Talk to me about Castellanos. Everywhere I read he deserves better. Hitting the ball hard, BABIP low, etc….should we expect a breakout coming here?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s still a legit 115 OPS+ type of players.

Dan Szymborski: palyer.

Dan Szymborski: player.

Dan Szymborski: But, of course, the problem is that he’s not actually a good player at third with a 115 OPS+

Dodger Fan: If you were Dave Roberts, where would you bat Gonzo? The power’s gone and it’s not coming back.

Dan Szymborski: Probably around 7th

Dan Szymborski: If circumstances hadn’t cleared space for Bellinger, I’d bat him as a pinch-hitter, if you catch my drift

Will: Netted Trea Turner for Stroman and Gardner. I have a stacked outfield and Haniger coming back soon and want to replace Tim Anderson at SS. Also just picked up Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson to fill in for Stroman. Smart move or blunder?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a bad move.

tip tipson : Do you believe the minor league “Bash Bro’s”
of Hoskins/Cozens become a thing in the majors? What are your thoughts on those two?

Dan Szymborski: Hoskins is easily the more interesting of the two right now.

Andy: Zack Wheeler is having himself a pretty decent season, huh? Velo and pitch selection look very similar to pre-surgery numbers as well.

Dan Szymborski: Wheeler’s one of the few pitchers on the Mets to improve his stock in 2017.

Dan Szymborski: I’m getting more and more optimistic on Wheeler every week.

Dan Szymborski: He *looks* more confident out there now too

Hart Man!: How do you and/or ZiPS rank the top guys in the draft regardless or team drafting?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t project drafts as a rule.

Jeb: Who should the Pirates trade at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Depends where they are.

Justin: Has McCutchen finally figured something out?

Dan Szymborski: He was never .600 OPS bad. But I’m not convinced that he’s back yet or that will ever happen.

K2: Trey Mancini’s defense is holding his value down, but it’s his first extended use in the outfield. Can he develop into a league average left fielder? If so, how valuable is he?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, he’s look rather awkward, even if his results aren’t really a problem defensively.

Dan Szymborski: OK, let me expand on that.

Dan Szymborski: His results have been very mixed stat-wise, but you should take 2 months of defensive stats with a giant grain of salt.

Dan Szymborski: The data doesn’t become better simply because it coincides with the observation that he’s inelegant out there.

Dan Szymborski: But it’s in the O’s interest to find out.

Dan Szymborski: I do hope they tarde Kim to a team that is actually intersted in him though

tim: Felipe Rivero. This dude is nasty. What do you think of him moving forward?

Dan Szymborski: I was touting him last year! He was a good, almost direct replacement pickup for the Pirates.

Don’t Breg,man: Aliens have landed on our planet and coincidentally play the exact same game on their planet that we call baseball. They were just going to eat us alive, but the fact that we play their game is endearing to them. They’ve offered us a chance to live if one of us can get hit a home run off their best pitcher in one at-bat. Do we choose Babe Ruth in his prime or Barry Bonds in his prime?

Dan Szymborski: Bonds.

Dan Szymborski: Though I guess it depends on what the repertoire of the pitcher is.

Dan Szymborski: If the alien throws spitballs and junk, maybe Ruth.

Dan Szymborski: But as great a player as Ruth was, he didn’t have the day-to-day experience getting around a modern fastball.

Brian: Does Cole get traded at the deadline? What would a return look like for the Pirates?

Dan Szymborski: No

toki: What would you rather do? Trade with the Padres with a 30% chance the medicals are correct and a 50% shot if they aren’t that the player is already hurt or get fleeced like the D-backs in the Shelby trade?

Dan Szymborski: Always depends on the specific trade.

toki: Which player would be the most intense competitor in a game of Russian-Roulette?

Dan Szymborski: Bryce Harper

Dan Szymborski: and if I’m allowed recently retired, Jonny Gomes

toki: Marlins’ top 3 of the batting order if they were fish: 1. Flipper 2. Willy 3. Jaws?

Dan Szymborski: I think Jaws would be more of an ISO guy

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t know enough about fish to hazard a guess as a more appropriate one for Yelich

BC: Who would be likely landing spots in a Gerrit Cole trade? NYY, Hou, Col? What would a return look like?

Dan Szymborski: *If* it would happen, I think you’ll see most of the rumored suitors for Quintana get involved.

Dan Szymborski: Which makes your guesses not bad at all

Babe Lincoln: Since spring training, the chances of Tanaka opting out have gone from ___% to ___%?

Dan Szymborski: 80 to 30 maybe

Sean: You know the only players to post a season with GB% > 63% and K% > 20%? Brandon Webb, Dallas Keuchel, and Zack Godley (so far this season).

Bobby Doerr: Is Jimmy Nelson for real?

Dan Szymborski: The bump in strikeout rate means its more likely.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not some obscene unsustainable improvement or anything

Chuncey Wiggins: I have returned from Japan and was blown away with their fans organized cheers and bands. What will it take for the MLB to start allowing fan lead trumpeting sections?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s culture

Babe Lincoln: Since spring training, the chances of Cueto opting out have gone from ___% to ___%?

Dan Szymborski: 90 to 70? He hasn’t really been *bad* or anything and Arrieta’s stock has dropped a little too.

Dan Szymborski: And I expect him to be better by the end of his season than he stands right now

Andrew: I’ve lost all faith in replay after that Yolmer Sanchez “home run” against the Rays on Tuesday. How does that happen?

Dan Szymborski: The replay is done by the same entitled group that seems immune to any evaluation of their performance that makes the bad calls in the first place.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not buying the catwalk excuse

JoeB: Miggy- the fantasy underlying skills data have been saying the breakout is coming. I’m losing patience. Should I continue to hang on?

Dan Szymborski: I remain optimistic about Cabrera in the short-term. But damn the end of that contract will be ugly

Matt: I saw a picture of a pizza topped with tacos the other day. In such a situation, would you call the tacos “pizza topping” or the pizza an “edible tray”?

Dan Szymborski: The tacos act in the context of topping.

Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re physically removing the pizza tacos and eating them as tacos

Kvn: Talk of Trey Mancini. This is surprising no? Are you reevaluating?

Dan Szymborski: I’m buying the power improvement more than the BA on e

Chuncey Wiggins: How much worse would a baseball team perform over a season if they wore tuxedos?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d get used to them.

Dan Szymborski: But would have trouble on hot days

Pine Marten: It’s mid-June and it feels the NL playoff field is mostly set. All that we are waiting on is if the Brewers can outlast the Cubs, right?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect they won’t, even though I relaly like the Brewers long-term

ECinDC: WAR wise, Max Scherzer is Tom Glavine, and better than Curt Schilling. Does that make him a HOFer?

Dan Szymborski: He’s at like 40 WAR, he’s not Glavine or Schilling yet.

Dan Szymborski: As for Hall of Fame, the voters need to do a better job. *Mussina* isn’t in. *Schilling* isn’t in. Halladay’s going to get royally screwed over.

Chuncey Wiggins: What fan rage makes you the most perplexed? Mine is when they think you’ve messed up the burnt offerings.

Dan Szymborski: The Padres fan stuff above

Will C.: Is Mike Foltynewicz a buy low target for the rest of the year?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little late to be buying low. At t his point, I’d more willing to field offers to trade him away

ECinDC: Is it possible the Ryan Zimmerman really was just hurt the past few years?

Dan Szymborski: YEs

Dan Szymborski: Though it doesn’t reflect well on the Nats for using him at all if he was so injured that it was the difference between 2016 and 2017

Chuncey Wiggins: Do you think you could run and jump over the mound without touching the dirt?

Dan Szymborski: No

Coronado Chill: There are “very angry Padres fans”?

Dan Szymborski: I was surprised too

Dan Szymborski: I figured they’d have learned a bit of humility after crowing about the Matt Kemp trade.

Hart Man!: Unsold on Freeland?!?!? Your entire Evansville fan base will be calling Ace Purple on you!

Guest: Is this trade realistic?Andrew Benintendi
Rafael Devers
Jackie Brandley

Por Mike Trout

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Angels woudl even vield offers, honestly.

Sano: If a hitter has a high exit velocity, does that mean a high BABIP is sustainable?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the degree.

Dan Szymborski: Just because a guy is killing the ball doesn’t mean he’s a .400 BABIP guy

Bebop: would the Cubs trade for Stroman? Would the Jays even trade him? what would it take? Almora, Candelario plus someone not named Baez or Happ not near enough?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Jays are “there” on a trade.

Dan Szymborski: They’ve inched close enough to the race to be interesting again.

Dan Szymborski: So I think it’s a moot issue

Matt: Will Ramos play enough with his new ACL to be fantasy relevant? Will Murphy get enough PT over Wolters?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure about fantasy relevant, though if you need upside, he’s interesting

Hold the Odor: Assuming Watson loses the closer role, is he droppable or do you think he regains the position?

Dan Szymborski: As long as Pirates go with their best reliever as the closer, I don’t think he’s likely to get the job back

Booger: I assume the lack of talk about Mazara means that everybody knows he’s taken the next step to stardom.

MLB COMMISH: Which team would lead the league in upside-down win percentage? (win percentage in games where both teams have to play upside-down)

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, the Cards? It’s not like they’re playing good defense right side up

Big Tuna: Concerned about Wacha’s last start?

Dan Szymborski: Hist last few actually.

Dan Szymborski: Given the team’s bullpen issues, I think I’d actually put Wacha in the pen right now and use Luke Weaver.

Dan Szymborski: Wacha’s stuff strikes me as playing better in relief

B: who’s the prince of darkness? the guy running the queue?

Dan Szymborski: We all know who that is

spencer: do you think rosario gets call tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski: I would certainly hope so. Mets need players with an upside it this point and not worry so much about a c ouple extra million for super two

Rick: Dan, what’s your take on Robbie Ray? Great Ks, meh walks, great slider, meh fastball. Is he a sell high? Or are you more in line with the projections

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a very solid starting pitcher and expect that to continue.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s likely to have a Cy Young breakout.

Paulie Walnuts: Crazier Tuesday event: Scooter Gennett 4 HRs or the “home run” that was actually just Kiermaier misjudging a fly ball to center?

Dan Szymborski: Gotta be Gennett.

Dan Szymborski: As I noted on Twitter, the Reds really love players wiht nicknames that sounds like they’re from the 1950s

Dan Szymborski: Scooter, Skip, Gookie, Corky, Jumbo, Sal, Pokey, etc.

Paulie Walnuts: Does Yonder Alonso finish as a top 10 hitter in the AL?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s very possible. ZiPS already has him finishing near a .900 OPS and I don’t think in-season is really capturing the change in his swing.

Hannah Hochevar: I like the idea of E-Jax being a long reliever for the O’s, but he has no minor league options. Given his getting shelled last night, could the team be like–See? You need more minors time.–and he agrees to go back down, or is it keep or cut at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Crichton should’ve been called up for a real look rather than Jackson.

Dan Szymborski: Sure, Jackson had an optout, but who cares? It’s Jackson.

John: I apologize for the negative remarks made by my fellow Padre fans, I hope this doesn’t lead to a Padres ban in your chats! Anyway, do you think Otani will have enough success as a hitter once he comes over to entice teams to risk injury to get his bat into the lineup? Thanks again!

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the organization. I think he needs to go to the right team that is willing to really be creative iwth his usage.

Whitaker: Smoak, Alonso, or Pujols ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Alonso

Eldridge Cleaver: Correa or Machado in a basic keeper league?

Dan Szymborski: Correa. The SS qualifying for sure is huge

Tom: Nelson Cruz for Alex Bregman, which side you on?

Dan Szymborski: I assume this is fantasy? NO way I do this in real life on the Astros side.

Dan Szymborski: Bregman if he’s a shortstop, Cruz if he isn’t allowed

Paulie Walnuts: Is Sean Manaea a legit #2 at this point?

Dan Szymborski: I tend to be conservative, but I don’t think it’s that much of a reach. I think he’s a good pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: Even if I’m still confused why there was a period in which he was called Seth interchangeably and that seemed to suddenly stop

Natasha STLCards: I would like to read what do you think about stolen bases in nowdays. How so many fast players don’t stole bases anymore. And how rare isto see players like Paul Goldschmidt or 30/30 Type when the league have players with the tools to do so…

Dan Szymborski: The problem is there’s only so much value to get out of steals unless you’re going to have a sick number of them and nobody wants to risk a top hitter that much

Dan Szymborski: So the players that do still steal tend to be rare

Dan Szymborski: and it doesn’t take much of an injury to have that drop off

Nick: Is Bregman available in a trade now due to his slow start?

Dan Szymborski: No

Don: Can Judge maintain a .370+ BABIP long term?

Dan Szymborski: No

ECinDC: Is it possible to beat Cal’s streak?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Matt: Dan – Can I call you Dan? Ok, cool. Thanks, Dan – after that aside I forgot what I was going to ask, Dan.

ECinDC: So what were the fastballs like that Ruth was facing?

Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t facing 97 MPH fastballs regularly

Joey: How do pitchers/catchers determine pitch sequence? Say a pitcher has a FB, curve, and changeup in his repetoire. How do they determine which pitch to throw and in what order?

Dan Szymborski: Depends ont he team and the players in quesetion

Andrew: Rank the Pies: Apple, Cherry , Pumpkin, Felix

Dan Szymborski: Cherry, Apple, Pumpkin, Felix

Alex: The pirates will be in Pittsburgh on the trade deadline. Knowing that, who will they trade?

Dan Szymborski: Again, it matters where they stand. The six weeks coming will answer whether they bother continuing 2017.

Dan Szymborski: Though at this point, I expect selling more likely than not

Dan Szymborski: They need to get back to .500 and they need the Cubs to still be treading water.

Szymulator: Whats up with Hanley? Is he droppable in a 10 teamer (6×6)?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be happy rostering him in a tenner

JDX: With today’s 4-4, Votto is at .300/.423/.595 (161 wRC+), with 30 XBH against 32 K, all with a .285 BABIP. If that BABIP can even get up to .300, we might be looking at Votto’s best season ever, since his defensive numbers are also good.

Dan Szymborski: Too bad he doens’t have RBIs like that clutch god Phillips

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: PIZZA?! NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL A TACO! https://vimeo.com/90127834

Slider: Why don’t all (or at least the new) ballparks have super cushiony walls in the outfield? Seems like common sense to protect your investments.

Dan Szymborski: To be honest, I really don’t know.

Frankur: Hosmer to the Yanks makes a lot of sense right? Can’t count on Bird

Dan Szymborski: Would need a lot of reality facing by the Royals

LudeBurger: I’m in the sell/tank phase of my dynasty team cycle. I’m taking on all other teams’ garbage. What are some good puns I can use to cause some laughs and interest? I’ve been using summer-losing weight, cleaning house, an albatross contract ruining a picnic, etc.

Dan Szymborski: PUns are the lowest form!

Dan Szymborski: When I Benintentionally make a pun, I feel guilty about it for days

Andy: Any chance we see a baseball franchise in Nashville? Seems like Charlotte is more likely if expansion occurs in the Southeast, but after watching those Stanley Cup games there… my god. I feel like that can be an awesome baseball town.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t expect Nashville. It may be a good baeball town, but it’s going to still be a pretty small mass market.

Dan Szymborski: I can see a team in North Carolina though

Matt: What age were you when you first made zips? How long did it take to make?

Dan Szymborski: I initially put it together in 2002 and 2003, so I would have been 23 in the first half of 2002 and 25 after June 2003.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think at the time to record the exact dates and stuff

Smittens: When is Rhys Hoskins going to get the call? Is he as good a ballplayer as Matthew Rhys is an actor (on The Americans; best wigs on television too)

Dan Szymborski: The Phillies need to figure out just where to play him

Matt: Homer Bailey is also a great old school name

Rasta: Szym Szyma, who got the keys to my Beema

…: if a position player needs Tommy John Surgery, does it have a shorter recovery time than for pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: Usually

Rhendricks: Why is there not much interest nationally on the MLB draft? Too many prospect to know? Players don’t make an immediate impact so fans are less interested? Would the ability to trade any pick help?

Dan Szymborski: college baseball isn’t that high profile and the players are going to take a lot longer to be in the majors than in NFL/NBA

Cueto: What’s up with me, man? My odds of not opting out have increased a bit, eh?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but again, I still think in the end you’ll be good enough and opt out

Rasta: Fulmer… #2?

Dan Szymborski: Fulmer’s a good pitcher

JJP: ZIPS ROS plus YTD results show that I should win my league by 20 points (humble brag). How much variance should I expect in the ROS stats to calculate my chance of not winning?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know where to start!

ECinDC: How did I get 4 questions in, in no one else asking questions

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly random with them, sometimes you’re lucky

Georgip: Can anything stop Sogard?

Dan Szymborski: Something Norse-related, I’d assume.

WILSON CONTRERAS: My BABIP is .315 and my hard% is 30.1 yes I’m striking out 26.1 but 91 wRC+ seems odd

Porcho Villa: FYI, the twitter post promoting your chat includes a “Translate from Polish” option courtesy of Google Chrome.

Dan Szymborski: How would that even work? Szymbory is a place not a name and I don’t think I used other POlish words!

John: Segura extension thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s very reasonable

Wes: How much value does Javier Baez have in a dynasty league? If you were a rebuilding team would you trade Miggy for him?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the size of the league really. I think I’d aim higher for a player with the upside this year of Miggy.

Rick: How inconceivable is it that the Mariners are sitting at .500 with the ridiculous run of injuries they have had? Once (if) they return to some semblance of health, is it not reasonable to expect them to take off?

Dan Szymborski: The league’s not super strong right now remember!

Rick: Are you on the James Paxton as an ace train?

Dan Szymborski: I’m rapidly getting there

Tom: Are you a fan of David Dahl’s fantasy potential for a dynasty league?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Ricky: O/U Zunino wRC+ ROS of 90?

Dan Szymborski: It’ll like be 60 or 150

FireDrayton: Bregman’s season so far has been….yeesh. You still a believer?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Chuncey Wiggins: Player most likely to have Dorito crumb stains on their jersey…

Dan Szymborski: Bartolo

Dan Szymborski: CC?

Georgip: I think your surname name would look better on the back of a jersey than Schoenweis’ ever did. Not a knock on the man … it’s just a gut feeling.

Dan Szymborski: Kinda curious what his last name was originally

Dan Szymborski: Becuase he could be essentially handsome white guy or handsome smart guy

Pine Marten: More likely to turn into a dynasty: Brewers or Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: Brewers? They really have an interesting core developing.

Dan Szymborski: I think the Rockies had the potential too, but they also squandered a lot of opportunities to reinforce their upcoming talent

Rasta: Sabathia kicking the habit that I’m currently partaking in… just a storyline or any chance that could help him be a better pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: The alcohol? I imagine it would keep him healthier

Dan Szymborski: Not really a habit

Bill: Your picks for AL playoff teams after 1/3 of the season are?

Dan Szymborski: Boston, Cleveland, Houston, New York, Baltimore still in a good wild card 2 position

toki: “Player most likely to have Dorito crumb stains on their jersey…”

David Wells is the only correct answer

Dan Szymborski: OK, 3:00 now – gotta head out ofr an appointment.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.