Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/14/22

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to chat!

Dan Szymborski: Feel free to flood with questions, no matter how goofy, because this didn’t appear on the site until five minutes ago, so my queue is looking rather ribsy.

DR: Where is the FG draft week coverage?

Dan Szymborski: That’s Eric’s department! I’m sure he has stuff planned

Greg: Is run differential more or less predictive if you remove the most extreme outcomes on either side of the spectrum (i.e. remove 5 biggest wins and losses for a team and then calculate run differential). Thinking about teams like the Pirates who have some sizable losses but very few sizable wins. Are they more like a -125 run diff team or a -85?

Dan Szymborski: I think generally, considering how many games there are, it wouldn’t really change things much

Dan Szymborski: I would actually expect more predictive by a very slight margin

Appa Yip Yip: What do you think the difference in trade return is between a hypothetically vaxxed Benintendi and the actual unvaxxed Benintendi? No AL team is gonna touch him.

Dan Szymborski: I think it might be significant depending on schedule

Dan Szymborski: Like the in-season games aren’t important for the Yankees

Dan Szymborski: but the possibility of acquiring a player who would be unavailable for half of a Toronto series? That’s tough. It’s a few games, but they’re incredibly high leverage ones

Greg: Is anyone covering the draft or doing any pre-draft coverage for Fangraphs?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really involved in that sphere so I haven’t been in the discussions. I do see Eric’s final mock draft in the queue, which will appear before the draft

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays fired their manager then won 8-2 while pulling off two successful hit and runs. I don’t have a question this is just going to be fodder for the terminally online fans with the worst baseball takes I am sorry the Jays did this to y’all

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, Earl Weaver hated the hit and run and I’m not going to like stuff he did not!

Insert Witty Name Here: Recently rewatched office space and I couldn’t help but be reminded of you when Milton was on screen.  How far off base am I?

Dan Szymborski: In terms of working, probably. But I’m actually disappointingly well-adjusted generally without any real social issues other than my general laziness about social things.

Dan Szymborski: And I like my job!

Rob: What path do you recommend the Orioles take for the trade deadline? Trade Lopez and Mancini?  This win streak seems to have fans excited (myself included) but as a pragmatic fan this was never going to be their year and their roster has some major flaws.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll wait as long as they can to make a decision

Dan Szymborski: If they’re still with a non-zero wild card chance in two weeks, they probably stand pat and might even make a low-key acquisition or two

Dan Szymborski: Lopez can likely be traded at another time

Dan Szymborski: and Mancini’s not going to really fetch *that* much in return

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Why is it always the Royals?

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: Which bat are the padres going to focus on the most on the trade deadline? If you say Gallo I need to go lie down.

Dan Szymborski: I think they make a push for Laureano or try and convince the Pirates to not hang onto Reynolds any longer

Guest: Pick one to roster vinne pasquantinfo, laureno, Nate lowe, or Christopher morel.

Dan Szymborski: If you need the position, Lowe is the safest

AJ Preller: Better target if you’re the padres? Ramon Laureano or Adolis Garcia?

Dan Szymborski: Laureano

Dayton Moore Talking Head: I know you dig Pratto but are any of the other Royal Replacements interesting?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen the whole confirmed callup list yeat, but Michael Massey, Brewer Hicklen, and Nate Eaton would be interesting at least

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, these are the types the Royals should be looking at to see what they can do rather than hanging desperately onto the husks of legacy Royals like Whit.

Dan Szymborski: If they were interested in being the best team they could be as quickly as possible.

Insert Witty Name Here: Thoughts on The Mars Volta? I know you’re a classical guy, what do you think Beethovens review of Deloused in the Comatorium would be?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve listend to them, but not really enough to really judge. I’m not really a prog rock guy.

Owen Miller: Hey Dan – almost at the ASB and my line (.246/.300/.369) is almost identical to what ZiPS had me at (.248/.298/.371) – great work! Any idea why on Earth I still have a job?

Dan Szymborski: In fairness, I projected an easier league to hit in

Chris: What’s your take on O’s plan w DL Hall? Any chance he comes up after the break to help out?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re in any particular hurry. He had an awesome start against Jacksonville just the other day

Dan Szymborski: But there are still command issues to iron out

Dan Szymborski: And if the team’s still slightly playoff relevant, it’s tricky to ask him to iron them out at the MLB level

Dan Szymborski: They’ve been ramping up his innings though; he was at 60-80 pitches a game early on and now he’s regularly going into the high 90s.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have any insight into what the O’s are *actually* thinking outside of reading tea leaves

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d be inclined into giving him the old Earl Weaver Special

Dan Szymborski: Bring him up in August as a reliever, but give him some longer outings and maybe ease him into a start in good matchups

H.S.8: With Ramón Laureano being upcoming FA, who makes a push to grab him before deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Laureano will only be a four year player!

Dan Szymborski: So the A’s might not be in a hurry

Dan Szymborski: But like the Rays, the Padres do business with the A’s a lot and creative approaches can move teams

Dan Szymborski:

Chris: Cubs really need a new 1B for 2023-25 seasons, is there a trade they can explore using one of the prospects?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a weird lack of 1B prospects on good teams right now

Dan Szymborski: I think they probably have bigger worries elsewhere

keeb guy: Dan I know you’re into artisan keycaps from Twitter. My wife designs keysets as a side business and I am desperately trying to convince her that the market is ripe for this. This isn’t a question.

Dan Szymborski: Good luck! I like interesting keys and switches

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, there’s probably not enough overlap between FanGraphs crowd and keyboard nerds to make it profitable for either party, but a FanGraphs keyset would be lit

Dan Szymborski: For those not aware WTF I’m talking about

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Insert Witty Name Here: Did you read Cistulli’s book? I always enjoyed reading its title in his blurb, what were your thoughts on it if you did read it?

Dan Szymborski: I have not!

GKR: Is it a misconception that pitchers who miss significant innings due to injuries are fresher deeper into the playoffs? Thinking about Scherzer and deGrom specifically.

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I’ve never actually looked at this and if someone else has, I’m unaware

Dan Szymborski: Might be fun to look at

Nate: Have any thoughts on a hypothetical Danny Jansen for Urquidy swap between the Astros and Jays? Seems like it’d be a nice boost for both teams

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Stros would do that

Sonny: Does Baltimore’s improvement change the timeline of the returns they target (if they do move expiring players)?

Dan Szymborski: Not *significantly*

Morbo: The fact that the Royals looks at Mike Matheny’s time in St Louis and said yes please we want more of that and then voluntarily hired him without someone holding a gun to their collective heads should tell you all you need to know about the Royals, Dayton.

Guest: Guardians ‘buyers’ or sellers? The upcoming 40 man nightmare feels like they should buy, but they’re pretty far from reasonable contention. Reyes and Rosario viable sell candidates, even if it’s sell low on Reyes?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Guardians will just kind of shuffle around and do little

A’s Bad: Does ZIPS project/take into account launch angle changes? Thinking of someone like Vlad having a huge change from 20/21 in launch angle but being back down towards his 20 levels this season.

Dan Szymborski: Full ZiPS does, simpler in-season model doesn’t

Gil: Assuming deGrom returns to the form we know and love, who do you take to win the NL East?

Dan Szymborski: If this is the assumption, I would take the Mets.

Dan Szymborski: Given the risk, it’s coin flippy

Captain Moonlight: Dan! I adore change-ups to same-handed hitters. I think they rule. Do they rule?

Dan Szymborski: There’s an interesting thing here

Dan Szymborski: now, there are obvious selection bias issues

Dan Szymborski: but righty changeups vs. lefties and vs. righties show almost no difference

Dan Szymborski: but lefty changeups vs. lefties and vs. righties should a significant difference (obviously in favor of righties)

Dan Szymborski: But you have to approach it differently

Dan Szymborski: Like Gausman will use his splitter against righties almost like it’s a slider

KC Fountains: Dayton Moore’s positions on vaccination and masturbation couldn’t be farther from my own.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: The Royals won a World Series and it seems Moore and his front office get a free pass indefinitely. How many years does a World Series championship buy the GM on an average MLB team?

Dan Szymborski: Man, did everyone as hard on the Royals as me decided to come to chat this week as a group?

Dan Szymborski: Fewer

Dan Szymborski: Moore has extraordinarily long rope

Dan Szymborski: In the year since he became the GM, they have the third-worst record in baseball behind Orioles and Marlins

Guest: What does a 100th percentile Shohei season look like? Is it unreasonable to say 5+ hitting WAR/7+ pitching WAR and still have that understate his true value?

Dan Szymborski: I think the 99.99th percentile Ohtani projection breaks baseball and they have to restart the season like a temperamental internet router

Sonny: Saw Mike Petriello’s article on bat speed at MLB, anything you’re excited to see in those numbers (other than Yordan breaking the curve)?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I’m very excited to see those numbers. What I find depends on what I find!

Matt (Oceanside): Regarding Bellinger, when I look at him and his athletic ability, plus 2019 performance, he seems like he has the talent to be that type of person. When I watch him hit though, yikes, his bat path is super slow with that stance. Do you think he is a stubborn person that doesn’t listen to coaches? If I was that bad at the plate, I feel like I would want to change that….new stance, shorter to the ball…something 🙁

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like assigning character flaws to players or, in most cases, to front office people either.

Dan Szymborski: But his Carlos Baerga career path is concerning

Vent: If you had to live with one member of the 2002 Cincinnati Reds, who would it be?

Dan Szymborski: Ken Griffey Jr.

Dan Szymborski: Interesting stories

Dan Szymborski: and he falls asleep during the day sitting in a chair too

Wingedbeater: I’ve seen some arguments that Ohtani must be the MVP that turn on the value of the extra roster spot he opens up for his team by virtue of being two-way player. These arguments generally start with his WAR, which is in the upper echelon of AL players. They next add some undefined amount to that total, under the assumption that the extra roster spot Ohtani grants his team vaults his value far beyond those who have similar or even higher WARs. What do you think of arguments that proceed in this way? How much is an extra roster spot worth?

Dan Szymborski: The extra roster spot is a tricky one

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s valuable enough beyond the normal significant error in WAR

Dan Szymborski: Especially because there’s a downside too

Dan Szymborski: If he’s awesome, you have two awesome players in one

Dan Szymborski: but if he’s severely injured, you also LOSE two awesome players

Dan Szymborski: Kind of like if your favorite taco place and favorite beer place share a building and then the building burns down

X marks: Hey Dan! Thank you for your. Awesome work. Wat does ZIPS think of the new Xavier Edwards who apparently doesn’t steal but does… has some pop?? You/ZIPS buying it?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does give him a solidish translation for the season, though still skeptical beyond a good role player

Greg: I certainly hope that the Earl Weaver Special is a relief role and not something that happened to Alice Sweet at the bars last night

Gil: That artisan keycap question has me curious since I’ve been interested in changing up my keyboard: How much have you invested solely in keyboard related costs in, say, the last 5 or so years?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, 500 maybe?

keeb guy: I screwed up my last chat, I forgot to put in “the market is ripe for an entirely baseball themed keyset”

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, i’m not sure there’s quite enough crossover

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t know how much a timesink it would be to make it

Cincinnati Billy: I understand that you are always tinkering with and trying to improve ZIPS, but I imagine that there are certain possible improvements you cannot make based on foundational things baked into the system. If you were starting ZIPS from scratch today, is there something foundational you cannot now change but would tell young Dan to change at the jump?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is actually quite flexible. Since it’s all basically modular, I can change basically anything

Dan Szymborski: But I *would* like to tell college Dan to learn Python

Jay: RE Pitcher “Injuries”: I seem to recall Josh Beckett having a yearly injury in the middle of the season when he was on playoff teams.

Dan Szymborski: But he got blisters all the time

Kretin: Honestly, what do the Angels even do at this point? The org seems like such a mess with no easy way to turn things around.

Dan Szymborski: They continue to waste the of the most electric players they’ll ever have

Jack: With his suspension, isn’t Laureano actually only a 3 year player? 3 arb years after this one?

Dan Szymborski: He started the year at 3 years, 14 days

Dan Szymborski: Geez, he’ll be right around 5 years, 172 days

Dan Szymborski: I’m honestly not sure how they’re dealing with service time in the slightly compressed season

Earl Weaver: You brought me up twice in this chat, and I’m now doing so again.   What is the FG record for most NQEWRiaCs?  (Non-Quantitative Earl Weaver References in a Chat)

Dan Szymborski: Probably me and the number is probably like 10

Bill Lumbergh: ZiPs 2024 has George Valera as a top 10 player by wOBA – his milb numbers are good but not off the charts, obviously solid for a 21 year old (4 months from 22) in AA.  What else might be driving that projection?

Dan Szymborski: The age is very good for the levels and he has a solid comp list

Command: Andrew Vaughn, Vinnie P, or Casas in a dynasty?

Dan Szymborski: Vaughn is now the safest

Dingbat_Charlie: Tried a Leopold keyboard?  I love them so much I got two tenkeyless models – blue and brown switches.

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Dan Szymborski: Unlike a lot of keyboard nerds, I like full keyboards

Dan Szymborski: I’m always using the number pad

Dan Szymborski: and since I sit in a slight recline parallel to my desk, my keyboard sits on my lap, so a standalone number pad would not be ideal

Dan Szymborski: I use the number pad so often that it gets a completely different switch

Dan Szymborski: my main keyboard has tactile switches (box royal) but my number pad is licky (box navy)

Dan Szymborski: clicky

Michael Scott: If you could re-do the prospects lists, would you change the FV of Harris II or Strider?  Any other half season revisions of note?

Dan Szymborski: That’s not me area!

Guest: Over the five 1964-1968 seasons, his age 22-26 seasons, Jim Ray Hart amassed 23.5 WAR before his career was undone by injuries and alcoholism. Ever done one of those

Dan Szymborski: I’ve actually talked about him as a possible time machine

Key Flaw: If Spencer Strider makes it the world series, he has to walk to the mound and be announced as Spencer Aragorn, right?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Key Flaw: You are from Towson, right? So do you still call Towson University “Towson State”? Why didn’t Frostburg drop the “State” when Towson and Salibury did?

Dan Szymborski: Yup, I still call them towson state

Guest: Who is a prospect you want to say something about but haven’t had a reason to recently?

Dan Szymborski: Since when do I need a reason to say something.

Dan Szymborski:

Mitch7: Albert Pujols should retire at the All-Star game.  Return to St Louis as a coach for the rest of the year.

Mitch7: If the Angels could swap all members of management with the Rays for $100M, would they do it? Should they do it?

Dan Szymborski: The primary problem is ownership

Dan Szymborski: so you need a few billion to change that

Jeb: Topre 4eva

Down on the Royals: Don’t you suspect that most of the people (including me) who are trashing the Royals are longtime fans of the team? People are increasingly fed up with the clown car they’ve become.

Dan Szymborski: I do, but I’m mostly used to Royals fans being mad at me! lol

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to take off right at 1 PM as I have an article that needs to be wrapped up stat!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! Until next time.